Thiéres Rabelo

I think it’s safe to say that most Twins fans – if not all of them – expected a lot more from their club in 2018 after such exciting playoff run six months before. The signings of a number of free agents coming off a very decent previous season got a lot us over the moon. But one factor played a big role in Minnesota’s disappointing season: injuries. Is there even a way to dodge this problem or at least soften the blow? Yes, there is, and the Twins are doing a fine job on that front.First of all, in this stats oriented sports era you can find numbers to quantify virtually anything within the game. In 2017, Roster Resource came up with a very interesting metric to show which teams have been hit hardest by injuries, as explained here by Jason Martinez. It’s called Roster Effect Rating and its formula takes into account a player’s projected value to his team and the number of days that he has spent in the DL. It’s pretty neat. To exemplify, the Angels had the highest Roster Effect Rating in the majors last year, with 16.97. They weren’t the team with the most DL stints (they ranked third, with 32), but among the 23 players they’ve had going to the DL last year, three of them were extremely valuable: Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons and Shohei Ohtani spent 54 days sidelined. The team that suffered the least with injuries during 2018 were the Astros, having the smallest Roster Effect Rating of the MLB with 3.44 and the second fewest trips to the DL, with 17. So, how much did injuries affect the Twins last year? More than twice as much in comparison with the year before. To be more exact, 2.3 times more. Two years ago, no more than 16 Twins players went to the DL. And the most important players to do so didn’t stay there for long, with the exception of Miguel Sanó. He practically missed the final month and a half of the season, totaling 40 days out of action. Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Jason Castro and Robbie Grossman didn’t spend more than 18 days on the DL. Overall, Minnesota had a Roster Effect Rating of only 3.93, which ranked as MLB’s ninth smallest. But that was about to change. It certainly is too shallow to say that injuries were the biggest reason for the drop off in 2018, but they absolutely took quite a toll. According to the DL Tracker, Minnesota’s most missed player was Byron Buxton, who spent 58 days recovering from a fractured toe and a sore wrist, not to mention the strong migraines. If by any chance some of us don’t remember, Buxton was the position player with the second highest fWAR of the Twins in 2017, with 3.5. Right after him in 2018 there’s Ervin Santana, who spent the second most amount of time on the DL with 286 days as he was recovering from finger surgery. Santana was one of the most important players of the 2017 campaign, tying with José Berríos for most fWAR among pitchers, with 2.9. Two of the additions that came to the Twins via free agency also were sidelined for quite a while last year. Logan Morrison was out of action for 184 days, whereas Addison Reed couldn’t play for 18 days. The 2017 Twins had only five players who spent 100 or more days on the DL, with none of them spending more than 183. In 2018 they had six such players, with four of them going over 200 days. Still comparing the last two seasons, Spotrac shows that last year Twins players spent a total of 1,099 days on the DL, with those players accounting for $33,774,552 in salary. The year before that, they had had 942 days and the club had spent $14,184,723 on those players. Needless to say, the Twins had a much worse record, going from 85-77 to 78-84. It’s hard to say how many of those extra seven losses came as a result of those injuries, but it’s impossible to deny they did contribute a lot. But it seems like this year the club is working on the best way to prevent injuries having such a big impact, which is investing in depth. Opening Day is very far away and the roster will (hopefully) still be improved. There are many ways to do so. But if we take a look at the roster they way it’s designed right now, we can tell that it is deep in most of its areas. Position players Of the nine positions, only three of them have only one player listed, which are 3B, RF and DH. But that shouldn’t be an issue, given the multitude of players who can fill in, especially in the OF, which is currently carrying seven players. All of the others have at least two players available. Catchers: Jason Castro, Mitch Garver, Willians Astudillo First basemen: C.J. Cron, Tyler Austin Second basemen: Jonathan Schoop, Ronald Torreyes, Luis Arraez Shortstops: Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Nick Gordon Third basemen: Miguel Sanó Right fielders: Max Kepler Center fielders: Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, Zack Granite, Michael Reed Left fielders: Eddie Rosario, LaMonte Wade Designated hitters: Nelson Cruz We always hope that nothing bad happens, but using 2018 as an example, we would have gladly welcomed the Astudillo-Garver duo instead of Bobby Wilson for 47 games, after Castro had a season ending surgery. Buxton was deeply missed, but having Cave right out of the gate could have been much better in comparison with Ryan LaMarre for 34 games. Besides Cron, Austin and Astudillo have also given some nice indications that they could fill in decently in the event of a (God forbid!) Nelson Cruz injury. Last year, while Morrison suffered with injuries, Robbie Grossman was having a nothing-better-than-average first half of the season. So things look, at least in theory, a bit better this year. Pitchers Starting Pitchers: José Berríos, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martín Pérez Starting depth: Adalberto Mejía, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe Relief pitchers: Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Addison Reed, Blake Parker, Trevor Hildenberger, Tyler Duffey, Matt Magill, Gabriel Moya, Andrew Vasquez The fight for a spot in the Twins rotation probably hasn’t been this fierce in years. The Pérez signing was tricky, but we have tried to show how he could represent good backend of the rotation help. Really, it’s even confusing to try to work out the Twins pitching staff right now. There are literally too many options. Minnesota currently carries more than two rotation's worth of starting pitchers. Of course, Pineda and Pérez are question marks at this point, but Mejía (who doesn’t have minor league options left, so would have to start the year out of the bullpen, if not DFA’d) is hungry to prove he belongs in the rotation. The same works for Romero. The bullpen is also crowded, with the players I’ve listed as depth being all options as well. A lot of good arms will have to start the year in Triple-A Rochester. And that’s exciting, if you think about it. Rocco Baldelli can complain about many things, but slim pickings is not one of them. Most of Twins fans are mad because of the front office’s lack of bold moves that we believed they could’ve done. But let’s tip our hats to their construction of a better and deeper roster, as of now. Click here to view the article

Just last week, in his article about Trevor Hildenberger’s role with the Twins this year, Tom Froemming mentioned how many Comeback Player of the Year Award candidates the Twins have for 2019. One of them is Jorge Polanco, who appears to be a bit under the radar in a lot of Twins fans discussions. But I think he is bound to surprise a lot of people that may have been taking him for granted.Last year’s 80-game suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol might have done a number on Polanco’s reputation in the eyes of many Twins fans. It wouldn’t be crazy to assume the same for part of the club ownership and front office. It’s not crazy to imagine he might be one of the main trade pieces Minnesota has, but that might also be true for a lot of guys, such as Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sanó. Perhaps not giving “Chulo” a chance to prove he belongs in the Twin Cities could be too hasty. Even playing only a half season last year – by the way, he played 77 out of 82 possible games – Polanco managed to post some of the team’s best rate-based numbers. He slashed .288/.345/.427, which would have tied Rosario for best batting average, ranked third in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. Back in 2017, Polanco had a terrible year for most of the season, but then he rose after the trade deadline and had an outstanding second half. He slashed .293/.359/.511 in his final 63 games of that year, including an astonishing .373/.413/.686 in 27 August games, with 10 of his 13 total home runs coming after Aug. 1. He also got on base twice in the Twins' only postseason game since 2010. When putting together Polanco’s numbers since Aug. 1, 2017, you find out that he has been one of Minnesota’s best bats. In 567 PA since then (132 games) he slashed .299/.358/.478, with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs and a 125 wRC+. Granted, his defense is still below average and his 7.8% BB% and 16.6% K% aren’t great either, but for comparison's sake, those last numbers are better than Rosie’s (5.1% BB%, 17.6 K%). Polanco is all but a lock to start at shortstop as of now. Ehire Adrianza and Ronald Torreyes are the only other two shortstops on the roster. Despite his somewhat weak defense, which did improve a bit with his UZR going from -4.7 to -3.9 over the last two years, Polanco still appears to be a good investment, especially when you notice he’s only 25. There’s a lot of room for improvement. Above all, there’s no one on this team who seems better qualified for a leadoff spot in the lineup. He’s a perfect fit. But What Could Stand in Polanco's Way? We all know Polanco is also a great asset, but with the shortstop position looking very healthy down on the farm (MLB ranked Royce Lewis as the second best shortstop prospect in the game), it’s hard to see Polanco staying in a Twins uniform for the remainder of his career... at least as a shortstop. Rocco Baldelli could well try to test Polanco as a second baseman, whenever Jonathan Schoop is hurt or resting, but that hasn’t been done by Paul Molitor since he came up to the majors. Not only are there long term alternatives at shortstop, such as Lewis and Wander Javier, a couple of other factors might affect his presence this year. For starters, one of the organization’s top prospects, Nick Gordon, could get a shot at the big leagues during this year. After thriving through all the minor league levels, Gordon had an uncharacteristic bad stint right after being promoted to Triple-A, slashing .212/.262/.283 in 99 games with the Red Wings. But he is using that as motivation. “I definitely feel like even with the struggles that I had, I learned a lot in Triple-A and it humbled me down to, ‘It’s about every game, it’s about every pitch, it’s about every play,'” Gordon said during an MLB Rookie Career Development Program, as posted by Twins beat writer By Do-Hyoung Park. “Ever since the season ended, there’s been that hunger and that drive. It feels like I have something to prove.” Similar to Polanco, Gordon too can play both shortstop and second base, but chances are when he is promoted, he might take at-bats away from Polanco more than Schoop. But that also depends on how each player performs. Another possibility, although there is only a remote chance of this happening, is that the Twins replace Polanco with an outside addition. ESPN has speculated that Minnesota could be one of the mystery teams in on Manny Machado. Having Machado with the Twins would be incredible, but not a simple fit. Who’s the odd man out for him to be in the team? Play him at third base, move Sanó to first and let go of Cron or Austin? Play him at shortstop, bench Polanco and cut Adrianza or Torreyes? There’s a lot of thinking involved. But again, not many people believe those Machado rumors. What do you think? Leave a comment and let us know. Click here to view the article

Congratulations Baby! I am proud for you Love you Ana Kelly Martins Rabelo

Agreed, but who would this guy be at this point? If they go after Kimbrel, nothing less than a fortune will be required, with the downside of his age being a risk. And would Cody Allen alone provide this adequacy to the pen? The FO chose Parker possibly because of the price, I have a hunch they're not willing to sign big contracts at this point, but I could be wrong...

Thank you very much for the time reading it, sir! Yes, also Pressly started to crumble down after an ASG worthy start because of overuse from Molitor. We can only hope that Rocco will change that.

You're absolutely right. Last year's rotation was mostly a mess, with the clear exceptions being Berríos and Gibby, so maybe that's one of the reasons a lot of good RP's had bad seasons. My only different thought here is that I would give Mejía the #5 spot of the rotation instead of Romero and use the latter as a RP, because I really think he could be extraordinary coming out of the pen.

Thank you so much, Ben! God bless you!

The MLB offseason is far from over. It’s possible the Twins could sign Adam Ottavino or Cody Allen in the coming days, I’d be glad if that happened, but for the purpose of this article let’s just assume the club is willing to head to spring training only with the current available arms. Is this group of relievers good enough to take Minnesota’s bullpen to the next level?Simply the arrival of new pitching coach Wes Johnson, who led the Arkansas Razorbacks to a 3.58 ERA in two seasons with the program, and the return of catcher Jason Castro to the team are surely going to make a huge difference for the Twins. Here are some other factors that could result in the bullpen becoming a solid unit in 2019. Players who can bounce back After an awful 2018 overall, there are at least two pitchers who could be expected to bounce back this year considering their track records. Both of them had quality numbers not long ago, but are coming off rather bad seasons in 2018. Addison Reed, who is in the last year of his two-year, $16.75 million contract, could be the greatest lift for this staff. He had a disappointing season last year, but even then he’s shown signs of the good pitcher he had been before. During his first 31 games of the season, Reed posted a 3.03 ERA with 8.6 K/9. But then, in the remaining 24 games he appeared on the mound, he had a 6.56 ERA. He had a 4.50 ERA on the year, his worst since 2012. There isn’t much statistical evidence that shows he would improve much in 2019. FanGraphs projects that he will have a worse ERA of 4.90 and fWAR of -0,1 (which would be an improvement in comparison with the -0,2 he had in 2018). But I think it’s safe to say that a pitcher with a career ERA of 3.53, who had had three consecutive solid seasons before last year, is not meant to have another terrible year. Reed's velocity has dropped considerably from 2017 (92.8 vFA) to 2018 (91.3 vFA), but possibly that’s due to the fact that he dealt with a triceps injury in late June, which had him go to the DL for most of July. When he came back, he posted a 3.60 ERA in the last 14 games of the year. Trevor Hildenberger is another player poised to have a good 2019. Most Twins fans are still patient with him because he had a stellar start of his career in 2017 and maintained that performance (or maybe improved it) during the first half of 2018. In the first 42 games of last year, Hildy posted a 2.80 ERA, held opponents to a .201 batting average and posted a 9.2 K/9. But just like Reed, his performance plummeted down after mid-July. In the remainder of the season, he had a 9.64 ERA, giving him a 5.42 ERA on the year. Unlike Reed, he is projected to improve a lot this year. FanGraphs estimates that in 2019 his ERA will improve to 4.04 and his fWAR will rise from 0.0 to 0.2. Those numbers aren’t great, but projections aren’t perfectly accurate. If the previous months of his career are an indicator, that rough finish to 2018 was nothing but an accident. Both Reed and Hildenberger were missed a lot in the second half of last year, but I think they aren’t done at all. If they manage to recover, the Twins bullpen will see a great improvement. But a lot also depends on the next category of players. Maintaining their performance Four of the Twins’ current relievers had very solid 2018 seasons: Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, Trevor May and Matt Magill. If they manage to keep the same kind of numbers this year, Minnesota will be able to achieve consistency from its bullpen. Rogers is the stud of the relief group, having had an amazing season. He posted a team-best 2.63 ERA, 2.33 FIP and 1.9 fWAR. Such numbers are in consonance with his previous two seasons in the majors and his entire minor league career. Nothing ralistically indicates that he is about to have a bad season this upcoming year. Parker joins the Twins on a very cheap, basically no-risk contract. He signed with Minnesota for one year, with a salary of $3.2 million. If he manages to maintain the same level from the last couple of seasons, the Twins got themselves a pretty good deal. He arrives in Minnesota after two absolutely solid years with the Angels. In both he’s reached at least 66 1/3 innings, posting a 2.90 ERA and 3.55 FIP, with 10.5 K/9. Parker’s 2017 was stellar, whereas his 2018 was “just good”. But even that “just good” would work for the Twins. He turns 34 in June and since he has prior closing experience, he is possibly the main candidate to take over ninth inning duties. The 29-year-old Magill had his breakout with the Twins last year, having started his stint with the club in late April. He went on to appear in 40 games, striking out 56 batters in 56 2/3 innings. During his first 15 games in the majors, he managed to keep a below 2.00 ERA. In 17 of his 40 games he pitched more than an inning, making him one of the most dependable men out of the bullpen in 2018. It’s uncertain if he will remain with the club after Parker’s signing, but he certainly did a decent job last year. After spending 2017 recovering from Tommy John Surgery, May came back strong to the Twins. Even appearing in only 24 games in the year, he managed to get 0.5 fWAR, while also striking out 12.8 per nine. His velocity seemed virtually unchanged (94.4 vFA) in his return. It was a smaller sample, but 2018 was by far his best year in the majors. If he manages to repeat that this year, May could be another cornerstone from that bullpen. Converting starters into relievers Assuming the six aforementioned cases work out the way they could, the Twins would have one or two spots to fill. That’s exactly where most fans would like to see a big free agent signing. But, if they decide to work with one of their in-house options, what would be the best way to go? They could hand over the job to one of the young pitchers currently in the 40-man roster, such as Andrew Vasquez, Lewis Thorpe, Gabriel Moya or John Curtiss. But there might be another safer and more effective way. Two young starters could become relievers and provide a strong help out of the pen. Zack Littell hasn’t had very long to show his stuff in the majors, having pitched only eight games for the Twins last year. But one thing was clear: He’s done a much better out of the bullpen than as a starter/opener. In 13 1/3 innings out of the pen, he’s had a 4.05 ERA. He could get another shot in 2019 if the Twins decide to use a 13-man pitching staff. His ERA is projected to improve from 6.20 last year, to 4.62 this year. On the other hand, if the club decides to use 12 arms, then the most appealing option would be converting Fernando Romero to reliever. The young Dominican had an amazing first stint in the majors. He had 11 starts for the Twins and has finished the first year with a modest 4.69 ERA, but that’s mainly due to a couple of really bad starts. In his first five starts, Romero posted 1.88 ERA while striking out 9.2 per nine. It’s uncertain how well he would do pitching out of the bullpen in the majors, given the fact that he’s done that very little during his minor league career. But, when he did, he was superb. He’s pitched only 18 1/3 innings as a reliever in the minors, but posted a 0.49 ERA. That’s definitely worth experimenting in the Majors. Now it’s your turn. What do you think? Can the Twins be competitive with the bullpen as it’s currently constructed? This is Thiéres Rabelo's debut article at Twins Daily. You can follow him on Twitter @TwinsBrasil. Click here to view the article

About the prospects Minnesota could use in a trade, is Nick Gordon anywhere near being one of them? I mean, Polanco isn't going anywhere for a while and Royce Lewis is the team's top prospect. Plus, they have Wander Javier as another option.

Ironically, adding an impact starter will make it even harder for the guys down in Rochester right now. I believe the new regime's evaluation to go and deal some of them and I believe that's the way to go. As good as most of them are, it's going to be nearly impossible to find room in a rotation that has Erv, Berríos and, say, Darvish? Mejía is supposed to make a Berríos-like leap from his rookie season next year, so you know he's probably staying put, too. And if Gibby keeps up that post-ASG type of game, then all doors will be closed.