Tom Froemming

Defense does not factor into WPA. Anything that happens when the team is in the field is credited to the pitcher.

Fixed, thank you.

It was a hard-fought game by the Twins, but for the second straight game the offense didn’t manage to produce the necessary runs and Minnesota came up short, dropping the series opener against the White Sox in Chicago. Miguel Sano busted out of his funk, hitting a pair of homers to go with a walk.Box Score Berríos: 7.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 74.3% strikes (78 of 105 pitches) Bullpen: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K Home Runs: Sanó, 2 (11) Multi-Hit Games: Sanó, (2-for-3, 2 HR), Kepler (2-for-5), Adrianza (2-for-3, R) Top 3 WPA: Sano .245, Adrianza .088, Cruz .068 Bottom 3 WPA: Polanco -.289, Berrios -.201, Schoop -.157 The Twins are in the middle of their roughest patch of the season, at least injury wise. Already playing without center fielder Byron Buxton and super utility man Marwin Gonzalez, Minnesota was also forced to place backup catcher Willians Astudillo in the IL yesterday and left fielder Eddie Rosario today. Once again, Rocco Baldelli had to deploy infielder Luis Arraez on the outfield. To make things worse, a number of relief pitchers were not available to pitch tonight, due to all of them being used in Thursday 18-inning marathon against the Rays. A couple of home runs put both teams on the board early. James McCann hit a two-out, two-run shot early off Twins starter José Berríos, to put the White Sox ahead in the first. The Twins responded immediately. After Ehire Adrianza hit a triple in his first trip to the plate, Miguel Sanó tied it up with a bomb to the left field. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

Oh sure, everybody gets all wrapped up in guys with postseason and World Series success until you roll out Sergio Romo, huh? I see. You know, there is an option to disable comments on these things ... (I kid, I kid )

Ronald Torreyes hit a pair of homers in his return to Rochester, Brent Rooker racked up three more hits, Travis Blankenhorn went deep again, Brian Navarreto played hero for Pensacola and a 2019 draftee earned his first victory and was named pitcher of the night. Come check out tonight’s Twins minor league report.TRANSACTIONS -Lewis Thorpe recalled by the Twins from Rochester. -Zack Littell optioned to Rochester from the Twins. -Ricky Ramierz sent on a rehab assignment to the GCL Twins. RED WINGS REPORT Pawtucket 7, Rochester 5 Box Score Chase De Jong: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 63.8% strikes (44 of 69 pitches) HR: Ronald Torreyes 2 (5) Multi-hit games: Brent Rooker (3-for-5, 2B), Ronald Torreyes (2-for-4, 2 HR), Nick Gordon (2-for-5, 2B), Wynston Sawyer (2-for-4, 2B) Ronald Torreyes returned to the Red Wings in a home run homecoming. He played a couple of rehab games for Fort Myers, but announced his return to Triple A with authority, hitting a pair of homers. Spencer Steer, the Twins’ third-round pick from this year’s draft, was a one-man wrecking crew. He hit a two-run double in the second inning, an RBI single in the fourth and another run-scoring single in the eighth. Ben Gross, a 10th rounder from the recent draft, earned his first professional victory in an excellent start. The only run he gave up over six innings was on a solo homer. He gave up just two other hits and did not walk a batter. GCL TWINS TAKES GCL Red Sox 4, GCL Twins 3 (10 innings) Box Score Niklas Rimmel: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Parker Phillips (2-for-4, BB) Keoni Cavaco was 0-for-3 with a strikeout and exited this game in the bottom of the fifth inning. According to the game log the Red Sox hit a single to shortstop prior to the substitution. STARS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day: Ben Gross, Elizabethton Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day: Ronald Torreyes, Rochester TOP PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed 2. Alex Kirilloff (PNS): 2-for-5, 2B, K 5. Wander Javier (CR): 2-for-3, 2 2B, BB 6. Brent Rooker (ROC): 3-for-5, 2B, K 11. Nick Gordon (ROC): 2-for-5, 2B, SB, K, E (throw) 16. Gilberto Celestino (CR): 2-for-4, 2B, E (fielding) 19. Jorge Alcala (PNS): 2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 61.7% strikes (37 of 60 pitches) SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester vs. Pawtucket, 6:05 pm CT (TBD) Pensacola vs. Biloxi, 6:05 pm CT (TBD) Fort Myers vs. Bradenton, Game 1: 4:00 pm CT (Tyler Watson) Fort Myers vs. Bradenton, Game 2: TBD (Jordan Balazovic) Cedar Rapids vs. Kane County, 6:35 pm CT (Josh Winder Elizabethton at Greeneville, 5:30 pm CT (TBD) GCL Twins vs. GCL Red Sox, 9:00 am CT (TBD) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the games. Click here to view the article

This comment saying something along the lines of "you guys are wrong because of this, this and this" is great. Please share your opinions. Some disagreement is natural, of course. even just within the five of us who contributed to this list there's a wide range on most of these prospects. Nobody has a crystal ball. I like to say prospect lists are a really fun form of torture. There is a lot of time, effort and energy put in to compiling these things, so when someone comes on here and says stuff like "so and so is only here because they were drafted high or because of their bonus" it's pretty deflating. I'd encourage everyone to try to make a top 30 or top 50 list of their own. Some things really get revealed even to your own self in the process. When I was just coming up with a loose outline for a top 50, I started by just listing out guys I thought were worthy of inclusion. I ended up with 75 guys! So there are 25 guys who I basically think are top 50 prospects in the system that didn't make the cut. It gets difficult, and really forces you to dig in and take a stance on some guys.

Gordon has a much better set of tools than Arraez. That's why he's higher. Gordon is the better shortstop, he's faster and has more power than Arreaz. I love what Luis is doing right now, but he has a .457 BABIP for the Twins. He's one of my favorite players to watch, but that's not what this is about. We're looking at tools and forecasting potential future value. Luis deserves a lot of credit. This is the best shape I've seen him in, his plate discipline has come a long way and he's showing more arm than I've seen from him at points in the past. Still, if you 1) can't play catcher, shortstop or center field, 2) can't hit for much power and 3) don't have above average speed, it's going to be very tough for you to carve out a role in the bigs for very long.

Trying to decipher anything from DSL stats is incredibly difficult, in my opinion. If you take a look back at the best 17-year-old pitchers from the 2010-14 DSL Twins I'd bargain you'll find some impressive performances and not a whole lot of future success. Now if you want to turn that same argument against Urbina, I get it. I had him down lower than anyone else, but some of the reports on him are very enticing. This is very difficult, especially when it comes to teenagers who haven't played stateside or recent draftees (which you can expect to see more of in the next installments of these rankings).

One last thing and then I'll hang up and listen This is more about outs than anything. They're precious. The only way a baseball game advances is by making outs. I really hate the idea of willfully giving them away, especially the first one. OK, on the bunting decision. If you want to get into the math on the specific scenarios, you can review Tom Tango's Run Expectancy Matrix, which is based on real-life data pulled from Retrosheet. From the 2010-15 tables: Chance a run will score at some point First and second, no outs: 61% Second and third, one out: 67.6% Average number of total runs scored First and second, no outs: 1.437 Second and third, one out: 1.367 So while you have slightly increased your odds of scoring a run, you've also hurt your odds of scoring multiple runs. But we're also taking a very broad look at this. For me, the range of things that can potentially go wrong is not worth the increase of 6.6% that you'll score a run (also, that increase was only 5.4% from 1993-2009, 4.6% from 1969-92 and 4.1% from 1950-68). We're assuming the bunt gets executed properly, which you obviously cannot do. There's also the potential that Schoop could have gotten a hit or drew a walk. Heck, the opposing team could have committed an error (like the play prior to the bunt attempt) or the pitcher could uncork a wild pitch, who knows? So accepting all the things that could go wrong and ignoring all the things that could go right just for a 6.6% better chance of scoring a run seems like a poor choice to me. Now specifically in terms of the 2019 Twins, I think when you have a lineup with this kind of firepower and a bullpen with as many questions this one has, playing to tie the game in the seventh inning seems like a fool's errand. Obviously the pen took care of business in the final two innings last night, but that's not really something I'd like to bank on.

Schoop's not a bunter, you gotta know your personnel. Also, I'm pretty sure Jason Castro was the lead runner. If there are situations in which bunting makes sense, that certainly wasn't one of them. And what difference would it have made? In the end the Twins still score at least three runs that inning whether the bunt gets down or not. That's as good a reason to not give away an out right there. There was already a guy in scoring position. How about the fact that Schoop entered last night's game with a .480 slugging percentage? That's better than Bob Allison and Kirby Puckett's career numbers, and a point behind Justin Morneau's. That's a guy you give the opportunity to drive in that run from second.

Thank you. I got so pissed off about the bunting I couldn't see straight there for awhile. That's right, it was May who gave up the solo homer for the last Tampa run.

Messages from the team’s marketing department are apparently being lost in translation on their way to the club’s manager. Instead of the Bomba Squad, Rocco Baldelli appears to believe he’s managing the Bunting Squad. Nelson Cruz hit a massive bases-clearing double in the seventh inning that not only put the Twins on top for good, but also bailed out his team after another questionable bunting decision.Box Score Odorizzi: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 60.4% strikes (55 of 91 pitches) Bullpen: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (3-for-4, 2B), Arraez (2-for-3, BB), Rosario (2-for-2) WPA of +0.1: Cruz .491, Arraez .151, Rosario .141, Rogers .115 WPA of -0.1: May -.129, Schoop -.145, Polanco -.236 Download attachment: Win626.png (chart via FanGraphs) Nelson Cruz provides a solid presence in the lineup, veteran leadership and will even apparently bail out his manager after making a poor decision. What a guy. The Twins were provided an excellent scoring chance in the seventh inning, and nearly returned the gift. A double-play ball was botched, resulting in the Twins getting runners at first and second with no outs. Jonthan Schoop was coming to the plate. The Twins were still trailing by a run. It was still only the seventh inning. Still, Schoop was up there trying to bunt. He missed twice, looking absolutely horrible in the process, and ended up striking out. Unlike when this happened last time with Jorge Polanco, I cannot imagine Schoop was doing this on his own. This is a guy who came into tonight with 13 homers and a .480 slugging percentage. Luis Arraez followed with a single to load the bases. The next batter, Polanco, popped out, meaning Cruz was the team’s final hope of capitalizing on Tampa Bay’s big error. Cruz ripped a bases-clearing go-ahead double to center field. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen626.png Click here to view the article

How deep is the Minnesota Twins’ system right now? So deep that we have one of the best hitters in all of the Double-A level this season slotted in as our 20th overall prospect in the org. There’s also a 17-year-old phenom in this group, a pitcher the team acquired in a high profile trade last year and a couple of the team’s top picks from its 2016 draft class. Come see who we have in our spots 16-20.Here are our choices for the Nos. 16-20 spots in the system. Make sure to let us know how you feel about these rankings in the comments below. We put a lot of work into compiling these lists, but it is an inexact science. 20. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF Age: 22 ETA: 2021 2019 Stats (AA/A+): .295/.349/.502 (.851 OPS), 15 2B, 0 3B, 14 HR, 71 K, 22 BB 2019 Preseason Ranking: Honorable Mention Seth: 17 | Tom: 19 | Cody: 33 | Ted: 29 | Steve: 17 We should probably come up with a name for the post-FSL breakout. How about the Pensacola push? Whatever you want to call it, that’s what Blankenhorn is doing this season. After posting a .686 OPS over a full season with the Miracle last year, Blankenhorn boasted a .781 OPS in his second time around the circuit and was promoted up to Double-A after just 15 games. He has terrorized Southern League pitching, boasting a .300/.342/.525 line (.866 OPS) in 54 games. He’s among the league leaders in virtually every major offensive category. Blankenhorn has struggled against same-sided pitching over his career, but is making positive steps in that regard. He has a career-high .702 OPS vs. lefties this year. In the field, Blankenhorn has spent 43 games at second base, 25 in left field and just two games at third base this season. Here’s a look at some of his highlights since joining the Blue Wahoos: 19. Misael Urbina, CF Age: 17 ETA: 2024 2019 Stats (Rk-DSL): .269/.371/.442 (.813 OPS), 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 K, 5 BB 2019 Preseason Ranking: Honorable Mention Seth: 20 | Tom: 27 | Cody: 16 | Ted: 21 | Steve: 23 This kid is 17. It’s entirely possible we have him way too low on this list. Then again, might be way too high on this list. The Twins signed Urbina out of Venezuela for $2.75 million last July. He has great speed, which should serve him well in the outfield, but he also came highly regarded for his baseball acumen and makeup. There’s such a wide range of talent in the Dominican Summer League. It can be difficult to try to put much stock into statistical performance down there, but it is encouraging to see Urbina hit the ground running in his first 14 games of pro ball. 18. Jorge Alcala, RHP Age: 23 ETA: 2020 2019 Stats (AA): 71.2 IP, 5.65 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.85 K:BB Ratio 2019 Preseason Ranking: 19 Seth: 12 | Tom: 22 | Cody: 35 | Ted: 14 | Steve: 15 It’s starting to appear more likely that Alcala’s future will be in the bullpen, but it’s pretty exciting to think about what he could be in that role. He’s been used as a “primary” pitcher following an opener in four of his outings this year. He has not responded well to that adjustment. As a traditional starter, Alcala has a 4.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 3.86 K:BB ratio. As the primary, he’s at 8.35 ERA, 1.96 WHIP and 1.77 K:BB ratio. Alcala has also had a difficult time limiting damage with runners on. He’s limited opponents to just a .666 OPS with the bases empty but they’ve roughed him up to the tune of a .920 OPS with runners on. Opponents also have a sky high .360 BABIP against Alcala in 2019. Taking a look at the breakdown of how our writers ranked Alcala individually, you get a good idea for the range of opinions on Alcala. 17. Akil Baddoo, CF Age: 20 ETA: 2022 2019 Stats (A+): .214/.290/.393 (.683 OPS), 3 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 39 K, 12 BB 2019 Preseason Ranking: 10 Seth: 23 | Tom: 16 } Cody: 14 | Ted: 19 | Steve: 20 Baddoo gets leapfrogged by several prospects in large part because he’s going to lose a year recovering from Tommy John surgery. The dip from 10th to 17th may seem a bit harsh, but all the guys who passed him by are all either brand new to the system or having incredible seasons. It’s still fairly rare for a position player to have to undergo that procedure, but in recent years we’ve seen Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff come back and show no ill effects from Tommy John. This injury will cost Baddoo time, but he still has as much potential as always. In the little time he spent with Fort Myers prior to the injury, 29 games, Baddoo was hitting for power (.393 slugging in a league where the average is .356), but his plate discipline slipped a bit. 16. Ben Rortvedt, C Age: 21 ETA: 2021 2019 Stats (AA/ A+): .247/.352/.409 (.760 OPS), 10 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 42 K, 28 BB 2019 Preseason Ranking: 14 Seth: 21 | Tom: 13 | Cody: 17 | Ted: 17 |Steve: 16 Rortvedt’s bat keeps showing more and more as he climbs up the ladder. His OPS has progressed from .559 to .599 to .710 to .760 so far this season. He already has a career-high six home runs this season, and his plate discipline hasn’t suffered. He has a 19.2 K% and 12.8 BB% so far this season. At 21, he’s among the youngest players in Double-A. The Southern League weighted average age for batters is 23.7. Rortvedt’s always had a good arm, but he’s committed to trying to improve on getting the low strike called this season. Moving up the ladder has also meant more competition for reps behind the plate. After appearing at catcher in 97% of his games in 2017, that number dipped to 82% last season and is all the way down to 67%. The drop in time behind the dish has allowed Rortvedt to get more plate appearances to date than any of his prior seasons. Here’s some recent video from Rortvedt’s time with the Blue Wahoos: Twins Daily 2019 Midseason Prospect Rankings Prospects 36-40 Prospects 31-35 Prospects 26-30 Prospects 21-25 Prospects 11-15 Coming Soon Click here to view the article

It's probably also what Grossman rated as a prospect.

If Raley was anywhere near close to the defender a Max Kepler or Eddie Rosario is, that would certainly change the equation. But Rooker vs. Raley is a lot closer to Willingham vs. Grossman than it is Willingham vs. Rosario. Either way, you're not going to be very excited about either of them patrolling the outfield for you. The bat is going to have to carry both these guys.

Stats aren't everything, but something to keep in mind about Raley's OPS is his OBP has been supported somewhat by taking an insane number of hit by pitches. Raley's been hit with 29 pitches the past two seasons. Here are their K and BB rates the past two seasons. Rooker: 28.7 K%, 10.8 BB% Raley: 26.0 K%, 6.2 BB% Raley may be the superior defender, but I don't see his fielding ever really being an asset at the MLB level anyway. I like Raley, he was a good find, I'm not trying to say he's hopeless or anything. I just think Rooker's ceiling is much higher.

Just some of my quick thoughts on these guys ... Diaz: Very exciting to see what he's done. He went through such a physical transformation prior to last season I suspect that may have played a role in his down year. Is there such a thing as losing too much weight? I think we're probably too low on him at this point. I'm including myself in that assessment. If he continues to hit for Pensacola, I'm sure he'll keep climbing back up these rankings. Smeltzer: This guy can really pitch and is a competitor. He gives me a bit of a Chase De Jong vibe though, but being left handed is a nice advantage to Smeltzer. On the Gonsalves comp, I only have Stephen a few spots ahead of him. Canterino: Incredibly difficult to get a feel for who these recent draftees are and where they belong. Where we have him seems right, at least for now. Raley: More athletic than he looks, but any Kepler comps are unfair. He has seen some time in center field when Wade and Rooker have been in the corners, but he's not a realistic option there, unlike Max. I like Raley, was the high man on him in the prospect handbook by a decent margin, so I don't want to make it seem like I don't see it, but his offensive potential is nowhere near the same class as Rooker, in my opinion. We're seeing what Rooker can do when he's on right now, and it's incredible. Celestino: My suspicion was that we were going to see him bust out this month. He got off to a great start, and has improved from his April/May numbers, but not to the degree I had hoped. One thing to keep in mind is his BABIP is only .255. So if he can even just get a few more hits to fall in, those numbers will jump. Good athlete, takes good at bats

I'm always impressed when a pitcher manages to work around that bonus runner starting on second base in extra innings. Such a high-pressure situation already, dropping a guy in scoring position into the mix ratchets everything up even more. For Schick to wiggle out of that for not just one, but two innings is a big accomplishment to me.

When you have the power of the reverse jinx on your side, it's actually your obligation to continue complaining. Quick, say something negative about Pineda, he's starting tomorrow!

The signing is great, it's what comes next that I'll be interested in. If they push him into the major league pen without signs that he's progressed in the minors first I will not be amused. Some of the guys they've promoted from the minors have shown flashes of much better stuff than Allen has had for years, and they can't seem to get the opportunity to stick around. There are also a few guys in the higher levels we haven't seen yet who deserve a chance over Allen at this time. If they can identify some things to get him pointed the right direction, great, sign me up. But Allen shouldn't be given any additional opportunities until he's earned them.

He really did struggle in his first taste of Triple A at the start of this season. But so far in June, that's down to a 26.7 K% and it's coming with a 20.0 BB% (!!!).