Tom Froemming

You wouldn't improve the 2017 roster. The hope would be that the outlook for 2019 and beyond would be greatly improved with additional young talent.

I think Rule 5 guy Justin Haley is going to make a strong case to break camp. Certainly has more of an opportunity in the pen, but at this point he'd also be a dark horse for the No. 5 starter. A lot would have to go his way (Hughes on the DL, May back to the pen, Duffey & Mejia to pen or Rochester), but it's possible.

Haha! Gotcha! Just kidding, will do. Hopefully this was still worth your time.

I think Byungho Park, with his surgically repaired wrist, is gonna surprise people. The guy didn't come over here to play at Rochester.

You are correct, excuse my ignorance. I remembered that scenario incorrectly and didn't bother to look it up. Polanco had to be added to the 40-man in Nov. 2013 in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, so they would have burned an option year regardless of whether or not he got a call up.

Nope. Other organizations move veterans to make room for their young players. I don't think there's another team in baseball that would have both kept a player like Plouffe and signed Park to obstruct Sano prior to last year. Also, other teams don't unnecessarily burn their prospect's option years. Absolutely no reason Polanco needed to be called up in '14 & '15 to play a combined nine games. If he still had options it would be perfectly acceptable to send him back to Triple-A to start this season. Polanco's still only 23, I think Dozier hadn't even made it to Double-A by that age (obviously college guys and international guys are different, but still).

The most recent rumors suggest the Brian Dozier trade watch will be mercifully coming to an end sometime within the week, one way or another. While there's been plenty of great analysis around potential trades, the fallout of Dozier staying with the Twins could be equally interesting. From just a roster construction standpoint, the immediate question would be what do you do with Jorge Polanco? He's best suited to play second base, and while he wasn't a train wreck at shortstop last season, putting him next to Miguel Sano everyday would give the Twins an infield defense that would give the pitching staff nightmares. Neither player has appropriate range for his position. Putting them on the same side of the infield is difficult to watch at times. I've been a proponent of just letting Sano DH full time, but it doesn't sound like that's the plan, which is understandable. Sano certainly has the arm for third, showed some surprising agility last season and is still just 23-years-old. So we'll assume now that Trevor Plouffe is out of the picture Sano is locked in at the hot corner. Eduardo Escobar is still around as an option at shortstop, but putting him there would make Polanco a backup/utility player. That's not an ideal role for the 23-year-old's development. Polanco is out of options, so sending him to the minors for further seasoning/everyday reps is not, unfortunately, on the table. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today The most recent rumors suggest the Brian Dozier trade watch will be mercifully coming to an end sometime within the week, one way or another. While there's been plenty of great analysis around potential trades, the fallout of Dozier staying with the Twins could be equally interesting. From just a roster construction standpoint, the immediate question would be what do you do with Jorge Polanco? He's best suited to play second base, and while he wasn't a train wreck at shortstop last season, putting him next to Miguel Sano everyday would give the Twins an infield defense that would give the pitching staff nightmares. Neither player has appropriate range for his position. Putting them on the same side of the infield is difficult to watch at times. I've been a proponent of just letting Sano DH full time, but it doesn't sound like that's the plan, which is understandable. Sano certainly has the arm for third, showed some surprising agility last season and is still just 23-years-old. So we'll assume now that Trevor Plouffe is out of the picture Sano is locked in at the hot corner. Eduardo Escobar is still around as an option at shortstop, but putting him there would make Polanco a backup/utility player. That's not an ideal role for the 23-year-old's development. Polanco is out of options, so sending him to the minors for further seasoning/everyday reps is not, unfortunately, on the table. So it appears Dozier staying would create a situation that somewhat resembles the roster crunch of 2016 that resulted in Sano being sent to the outfield. One way or another, somebody would have to play out of their ideal position. Unlike Sano with right field, I suppose at least Polanco is familiar with playing shortstop. If Dozier stays the next question becomes what exactly are the Twins trying to do? If Dozier is traded, it would signal the Twins are rebuilding. If he stays, where does that put the organization? Just kinda trying to hang in there, I guess? Who wants that? What's the point? From a philosophical standpoint, Dozier staying puts the Twins in this weird limbo where they're not rebuilding but also not trying to complete. If they were rebuilding, both Dozier and Ervin Santana would be traded for prospects. If they were contending, the front office would make an effort to beef up the pitching staff and maybe add one more veteran bat. From strictly a short-term perspective, of course I want to see Dozier play for the Twins in 2017. His development is the biggest success story of the organization over the past five years, and he just continues to get better. But from the long-term view, I'd really love to feel like there is light at the end of the tunnel. The last six seasons have been rough. Watching the Cubs and Astros turn things around over the same span pours salt on the wound. How many more teams are we going to see do successful tear downs before the Twins are good again? There can be no more standing at the crossroads trying to decide which way to go. The Twins need to either commit to a rebuild and set their sights toward 2020 or try to dial things up for a championship run in 2018. I'm okay with Brian Dozier staying, but his presence on the team would need to also signal a shift in philosophy. View full article

This is a great point. I think the Twins have a lot of prospects that could really shoot up these rankings with some more exposure. That's especially true for guys like Javier and Diaz, but I could also see the trio of Kirilloff, Romero and Jay rise. I think these three are being ranked fairly modestly because their track records are relatively short in comparison to a lot of other top prospects.

Good stuff. I was excited to see Lachlan crack your preliminary Top-20 back in early October. He was amazing last season.

This is fun. How about Should I Stay Or Should I Go by The Clash?

This is the best ever!

Tom Petty wrote that the waiting is the hardest part. You can count me among the Twins fans who can relate to that sentiment this offseason. All the excitement about new faces in the front office and speculation around the direction they may point the organization has resulted in very little action thus far. That's not to say there's reason to be critical of the Twins' offseason to this point. Heck it's too early to pass any kind of judgement either way. There is plenty of time for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to transform the roster if they see fit. But, there's no denying the hot stove has been characteristically cold for the Twins despite new leadership. Don't expect things to heat up anytime soon. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today Tom Petty wrote that the waiting is the hardest part. You can count me among the Twins fans who can relate to that sentiment this offseason. All the excitement about new faces in the front office and speculation around the direction they may point the organization has resulted in very little action thus far. That's not to say there's reason to be critical of the Twins' offseason to this point. Heck it's too early to pass any kind of judgement either way. There is plenty of time for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to transform the roster if they see fit. But, there's no denying the hot stove has been characteristically cold for the Twins despite new leadership. Don't expect things to heat up anytime soon. It's not very common for trades to happen this time of year, as it seems like front offices take it a little easy during the holidays. Last season, the Reds traded Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees on Dec. 28 but there wasn't another trade for almost two weeks after. Typically if a trade is going to happen early in the offseason it's completed at the Winter Meetings. Jon Heyman's reports that talks with the Dodgers about a potential Brian Dozier swap do not appear to be progressing. At what point do the Twins (or Dodgers, for that matter) just walk away from trade talks? I'm not in the camp that is demanding Dozier to be traded this winter, but I am starting to feel a weird anxiety about his status being up in the air (can't even begin to imagine how he feels). I just want to know if Dozier is going to be a part of the 2017 Twins or not. So many other things around the infield depend on what happens with Dozier. In my offseason blueprint I decided it would be better to hold Dozier and see if maybe at the deadline there would be more teams interested at that time. It's always nice to have a bidding war to drive up the asking price. But I'm starting to doubt if there will be another package that comes around with a better upper-level pitching prospect than Jose De Leon. Dave Cameron's of Fangraphs believes the Twins should make a deal for De Leon while he's on the table. And after reading Nick's thorough breakdown of De Leon it's tough to disagree with Cameron's stance. De Leon is certainly a risky investment, but what young pitcher isn't? While my own patience runs thin, it's probably a good thing for Twins fans I'm not running the team. That's true for lots of reasons, but chief among them right now is that I wouldn't have the endurance to be engaged in a negotiation for this long. Falvey and Levine may be running the risk of the Dodgers looking elsewhere to find a second baseman, but all the negotiating power lies with the Twins at this point. If a deal doesn't get done, the Twins keep the best and most popular player in the organization who just hit 42 home runs, is in his prime and on an affordable contract. And taking a look at Seth's recent roster projection, there aren't any glaring holes on the team now that Jason Castro has filled the void at catcher. The Dodgers, on the other hand, currently project to have Enrique Hernandez as their Opening Day second baseman. There are also rumors they're interested in a reunion with Chase Utley, who just turned 38-years-old. Sure, they could trade for another player such as Logan Forsythe of the Rays, but he's not on Dozier's level and he would still cost LA an impressive package of prospects. By no means do the Twins need to trade Brian Dozier. Falvey and Levine know this. I think one could argue the Dodgers need Dozier if they expect to contend for the World Series. The National League should be extremely competitive. Good things come to those who wait. Hopefully the Dodgers eventually give in and let go of whoever the Twins are holding out for. They have every reason to do so. View full article

I feel like if the team thinks they can compete by 2018 they should keep both Dozier and Ervin. If not, they both should be traded, regardless of replacement options. Plus let's say Dozier is traded for De Leon, then I would argue that there is in a way an excess, maybe not in terms of talent, but in numbers. As it stands the rotation would be Ervin, Santiago, Gibson, Berrios and Hughes (if healthy) or maybe Duffey/May/Mejia with Gonsalves knocking on the door in Triple A. I'm skeptical he'll stick, but Rule 5 guy Justin Haley is another option. Toss in De Leon and it becomes difficult to try to work all these guys into a five-man rotation even with the expected injuries/attrition. Might as well trade Ervin at that point.

This is great stuff, thanks for taking the time to comment. To your point, even De Leon, a former 24th-round-pick, wasn't a heralded prospect as recently as a couple years ago. You've definitely swayed my thinking some, and in general I have to agree with you. But when I think specifically about the Twins position right now I would still be inclined to go high risk/high reward. I feel like with Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, Stewart, Mejia and the like all coming up and other options in Gibson, Duffey and even May the Twins should have no problem finding options to fill out the rotation. While the guys I just listed have either under performed or haven't yet cracked the majors, that's still already nine options. And who knows, maybe one or two of those guys can be one of the type of pitchers who turns into a complete stud with a new pitch/mechanical tweak. I guess you can never have enough pitching, but I'm still inclined to shoot for the moon and focus on just trying to get the best pitcher possible instead of the best package.

You're right, even combining both Dozier and Ervin probably isn't enough to get Urias. But if you swap in Alex Reyes of the Cardinals or Tyler Glasnow of the Pirates or whoever you feel is the best guy that combo could possibly net, would you rather do that or try to trade Dozier and Santana separately for more prospects? I guess the bottom line is I'm wondering if there's any avenue in which the Twins can land a young pitcher better than Jose De Leon, or is that the highest we can realistically hope for. No disrespect to him, De Leon would be a huge add for the future of the rotation, but I just wonder. I'm sure that's the question Falvey is trying to find an answer to right now.

During this week's Winter Meetings we've seen the Chicago White Sox trade two of their premier players, Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, for a total of seven prospects. The moves have skyrocketed the White Sox farm system, which has been rated in the bottom third of baseball for several years. With Sale and Eaton both being very valuable thanks to their ages and team-friendly contracts, the White Sox managed to land both quality and quantity in terms of the prospects they acquired. For the Twins, it's likely the front office will have to choose between quality and quantity in their deals this winter. It's not difficult to imagine Derek Falvey & Co. making a couple of similar deals, though on a slightly smaller scale. But with a solid young foundation already in place and more help on the way with the No. 1 pick in this upcoming June's draft, should the Twins be more focused on top quality in their returns? The Brian Dozier trade winds continue to swirl, but things have been curiously quiet on the Ervin Santana front. Maybe neither of them get traded this offseason, but it seems obvious that if one goes there's not much reason to hold on to the other. So why not try to move them both in the same deal? There are rumored to be multiple teams interested in Dozier, but the most smoke has been surrounding the Los Angeles Dodgers. And, like most teams, the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher. This would be the ultimate putting all your eggs in the same basket deal, but how about offering Dozier and Santana for 20-year-old wonder boy Julio Urias? Getting third and fourth starters, middle relievers or solid everyday players is never all that difficult. Every year those types of players can be acquired on the free agent market, and with a core of cheap young players coming up and Joe Mauer's contract coming off the books soon the Twins should have spending room in the future. Getting aces, shutdown closers or stud hitters is extremely difficult. Even when those players become available you either have to sell your farm system just to get them as a half-season rental or sign them to ridiculous free agent contracts that are two or three years longer than you'd like. As with any young player, Urias is a lottery ticket, but his odds of giving you a jackpot are as high as they get. And if Urias hits you would have a player who is great, young and under extended team control. Of course, all this is assuming the Dodgers would even agree to the swap. Despite facing more advanced hitters his entire minor league career, the Mexican lefty dominated. Urias has a 2.66 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over 267 1/3 innings in the minors. He got the call to the show last season as a 19-year-old and did not experience much of a learning curve. Over 77 innings with the Dodgers, Urias had a 3.39 ERA and averaged 9.8 K/9. That's the kind of player who is next to impossible for the Twins to acquire under normal circumstances. Jose De Leon, the most rumored centerpiece in purposed Dozier deals, looks completely ordinary next to Urias. But still, it's much more likely Dozier is traded for a package of youngsters. And to be fair, both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have first-hand experience acquiring some really impressive players in such packages. But when those trades don't work out, well ... we all remember the Johan Santana trade. Maybe the Urias scenario isn't realistic, but what do you think about the idea in general? Should the Twins shoot for the moon and package Dozier and Ervin in the same deal, or should they try to diversify their returns and trade them in separate deals for packages of prospects? Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA Today View full article

Nice write up. What an interesting journey it has been for Garver and Turner. It's too bad Stuart had to go, but I suppose it's not necessary to keep four catchers on the 40 man. For what it's worth Turner's bat heated up some to end the year. He had a .745 OPS in the second half. If he can have a great spring and the Reds decide Devin Mesoraco's catching days are over Turner could be the backup to Tucker Barnhart on the Reds' opening day roster.

I don't understand why the Nats didn't just sign Dexter Fowler. Pretty close to as good as Eaton. Sure, he'd cost more, but I can't imagine the Nats are hurting for money. Plus that's just looking at "cost" as salary, Eaton cost them his salary and those three prospects. I don't get it, but hopefully this means the Twins can get a similar haul for Dozier. While you can at least compare Eaton to Fowler there is no one on the free agent market comparable to Dozier.

Plus if he's called up we would get the added bonus of hearing Bert try to pronounce Engelb Vielma.

Always thought he was put in a terrible situation out the gate. TR left him with a mess. There was no way Torii was going to resign and a Johan extension wasn't going to happen either. It was a very convenient time for Terry to retire. Everybody knew the Twins basically had to trade Santana, so of course Smith wasn't able to get full value. And, this may be damning to admit, but at the time I was pretty impressed with the trade for Delmon Young, who had been the No. 1 prospect in baseball. That was a gutsy trade.

The first big addition of the Derek Falvey era was done in design to improve the team's defense, an area that had gone serially overlooked in recent years. Let's hope the defensive upgrades continue, as there has been a strong correlation between team defense and success for the Twins. Take a look through the more than 220 comments on Parker's article and it becomes obvious there is not a consensus among Twins Daily readers on whether or not it was wise to sign Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million deal. Only time will tell, but an upgrade at catcher, particularly in terms of defense, was a huge need. It's a good start, as Nick noted, but there are still plenty of areas of improvement. And it's worth noting that defense has been a huge factor in the team's successes and failures over the years. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today The first big addition of the Derek Falvey era was done in design to improve the team's defense, an area that had gone serially overlooked in recent years. Let's hope the defensive upgrades continue, as there has been a strong correlation between team defense and success for the Twins. Take a look through the more than 220 comments on Parker's article and it becomes obvious there is not a consensus among Twins Daily readers on whether or not it was wise to sign Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million deal. Only time will tell, but an upgrade at catcher, particularly in terms of defense, was a huge need. It's a good start, as Nick noted, but there are still plenty of areas of improvement. And it's worth noting that defense has been a huge factor in the team's successes and failures over the years. Over the past 15 seasons, the Twins have ranked in the top half in team defense seven times, according to Fangraphs. They had a winning record in six of those seasons (every year but '07 when they were 79-83) and made the playoffs five times. In the eight years they've fielded a below-average defense (which includes each of the past six seasons), the Twins have been over .500 twice with just one postseason appearance ('09, Joe Mauer's MVP season). With an above average defense, the Twins have averaged 89 wins and with a sub-par defense they've averaged just 72 wins. And that's pretty close to being in line with what you see across the league. Taking a look at the past five seasons, teams who finished in the top 10 in defense averaged 85 wins and those in the bottom ten averaged just 75 wins. It's very difficult to be a good team that's bad at catching the baseball. As always, there are plenty of exceptions. The '14 Reds and Red Sox both ranked in the top five in defense but lost 86 and 91 games, respectively. On the other end, the '15 Pirates won 98 games despite being in the bottom five in defense. Last season, the Twins were 29th in defense, ahead of only Oakland. The only position where the Twins had above average glove work was at first base, where they ranked 8th. Center field (16th) and second base (19th) were spots where the team was at least passable. But right field (23rd), third base (24th), catcher (25th), and shortstop (27th) were all pain points for the Twins' defense, and thanks to Robbie Grossman's horrendous performance the team had the worst-rated left field defense in baseball. The hope is that Castro will boost the defense behind the dish, but what about the other positions? Max Kepler spent more time in right field with the Twins last season than he had played the position over his entire minor league career. Hopefully with more reps in right his defense will improve, he certainly appears to have the physical tools to be an above average fielder. In left, Eddie Rosario has been one of the best defenders in baseball the past two seasons. But he only accounted for about a third of the innings in left last season, as he spent some time in Rochester and played some center field. That leaves the biggest unanswered questions are on the left side of the infield. The obvious in-house candidates to fill those spots are Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar. If I'm going to give Kepler a break due to lack of minor league reps in right, I suppose I need to do the same for both Sano at third (thanks to his 2014 Tommy John surgery) and Polanco at shortstop (because he inexplicably played second base last season in Rochester). But it would be risky to hope they can both make the major improvements necessary to become even just average defensively. Considering they'd be playing next to each other in the field, a lack of improvement from both would be a defensive disaster. In his offseason blueprint, Seth recently offered up punchless leatherwizard (copyright Eric Longenhagen) Engelb Vielma as a glove-first alternate at shortstop. Vielma hasn't played above Double A, but for what it's worth both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have had success aggressively promoting young shortstops (not that Vielma is anywhere near the prospect Francisco Lindor or Elvis Andrus were). The only other player with infield experience on the 40-man roster is Danny Santana, and the free agent market is thin. How everything shakes out in the infield also relies heavily on whether or not Brian Dozier is traded. With the Winter Meetings coming up this week, many more questions may be answered. What would you like to see the Twins do to improve their defense? View full article