Tom Froemming

The odds are always in favor of the pitcher recording an out ... that's exactly why outs are so precious.

I don't think they laid down any sac bunts, right? They stole second base four times, but I don't think they ever bunted to advance anyone.

... Jason Castro's OBP is exactly league average ...

One more thing to add regarding Betances, after he has fallen behind 1-0 (as he did to Granite), opposing hitters have a .466 OBP and 31.1 BB% this season.

Here's a link to Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix. I believe this is the same information that's in Keith Law's book Smart Baseball. If you look at the middle table, that is giving the odds that your team scores at least one run in an inning in any give scenario. With a runner on first base and nobody out, you have a 41.6% chance of scoring a run. With a runner on second and one out, you have a 39.7% chance of scoring a run. So bunting a guy to second to record the first out decreases your likelihood of tying the game. But lets breakdown what we're looking at here. This is big data. These tables are generated off actual game situations from 2010-15. Like, every inning of every game. In a way that's great, because the sample size is huge, but on the other hand it fails to account for the specific situation in the particular game you're watching. But here are a couple numbers that make it seem like the bunt was an even worse call in this particular scenario: -Dellin Betances has walked 17.3% of the batters he's faced this year. So there's a chance he could've just walked Castro/Granite and advanced the tying tun to second base anyway without recording an out. -One of the better reasons to bunt is to try and avoid the double play, but Betances is terrible at inducing them. He's gotten 10 DPs in 199 career opportunities. That's 5%, league average is 11%. So it was over three times as likely that Betances simply walks the tying run to second base than it was that he was going to get a double play. I know those aren't the only two possible outcomes, and the scales are always tipped in favor of the pitcher recording an out, but given both the big data and the specific data in this case, there is very little to support bunting in that situation. The other problem with bunting there is it also greatly reduced the chance the Twins would score multiple runs and take the lead. That's the top table at the link I provided. With a runner at first a no outs, you're going to score .859 runs that inning on average. With a runner on second and one out, that drops to .664.

The Twins pitching staff, led by starter Ervin Santana, had a solid game Monday night at Yankee Stadium, but the bats were uncharacteristically quiet. The Twins have had the best offense in the American League in the second half, but could only muster four hits and struck out 13 times tonight.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: CorrectedSnap.png Old friend Jaime Garcia … wait, can we even call him that? I mean, it was really just a one-night stand, right? Anyway, the guy the Twins traded for and then traded away after just one start absolutely killed them tonight. Since the trade, Garcia had struggled to find his footing with the Yankees. Over six starts he had a 4.60 ERA. There were no such struggles tonight. The veteran lefty gave up one unearned run over 5.2 innings and struck out nine batters. Below is a breakdown of Garcia's pitches on the evening via Baseball Savant. While he may have gotten a couple of generous called strikes, Twins hitters swung through a ton of pitches outside the zone. Download attachment: JaimeGarcia.png The Twins got a leadoff double from Jorge Polanco in the second inning, but failed to score. They got their first two batters on in the fifth. Eddie Rosario had gone first-to-third on an Eduardo Escobar single, with an error being charged to Aaron Judge. The Twins managed to scratch across a run that inning on a Robbie Grossman fielder’s choice. The Twins went down in order in both the sixth and seventh innings. The dominant Dellin Betances came in for the eighth inning and led things off by hitting Grossman with a pitch. Luckily it was an 84 mph curve and not a 100 mph fastball. Now one thing to note about Betances is that while he has been just as overpowering as ever, his control has been all over the place. After averaging 3.5 BB/9 last season, that number has spiked to 6.6 this year. Jason Castro was due up next, but Paul Molitor opted to bring in Zack Granite to bunt. The first pitch was high, but Granite got the bunt down on the second pitch of the at bat. Per Fangraphs, the Yankees’ win probability actually increased from 65.9 percent to an even 70 percent as the result of that bunt. Max Kepler pinch hit and was walked on four pitches to turn over the lineup. With Brian Dozier batting, Betances threw a wild pitch that advanced both runners. Dozier ended up walking after a nice eight-pitch battle. Betances exited, leaving the bases loaded. Just six of the 17 pitches he threw went for strikes and the only out he recorded was on the Granite sac bunt. Aroldis Chapman came in and struck out Joe Mauer on three pitches and got Byron Buxton to fly out to end the threat. Chapman pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. It was a shame, too, because the Twins pitched pretty well tonight. Ervin gave up a pair of runs over 5.2 innings, but Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers pitched out of jams they inherited and Tyler Duffey had a scoreless appearance. The Yankees got their first run on Judge’s 44th homer of the year. In the sixth, they had back-to-back one-out singles. Santana threw a wild pitch that allowed the runners to move up to second and third. After intentionally walking the next batter in hopes of setting up a double play, Todd Frazier hit a sac fly to score what went down as the game-winning run. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 83-67 (+5.0) WC2: Twins 78-72 Angeles 76-73 (-1.5) Mariners 74-76 (-4.0) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen918.png Looking Ahead Tue: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Yankees (CC Sabathia), 6:05 pm CT Wed: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka), 12:08 pm CT Thu: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Tigers (Myles Jaye), 6:10 pm ET Looking Back MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce Click here to view the article

Dozier talks about the thought process behind that bunt in the postgame interview I included. I had no problem with that, take what the defense is giving you. Even if he didn't get the hit, you get two runners in scoring position with one out.

Things didn’t get off to a great start for the Twins Sunday afternoon, but oh boy did they end well. After spotting the Blue Jays a five-run lead, the Twins stormed back and not only caught Toronto, but ended up blowing them out.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot917.png Gibson entered this game on quite the roll, having pitched to a 1.38 ERA over his previous five starts. Matt Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus did an excellent overview of Gibby’s turnaround, and among the reasons for it he cited the fact that Gibby has been doing a better job of mixing things up, deploying a five-pitch repertoire. He seemed to have a feel for zero of those pitches in the early innings of Sunday afternoon’s game. Gibson walked four batters in the first inning alone and Josh Donaldson took him deep twice, giving him back-to-back multi-homer games. The Blue Jays jumped out to a 5-0 lead, and it was starting to look like the Twins lead for the second Wild Card spot was in jeopardy. But the offense erupted for seven runs in the second inning and Gibson found himself as he cruised through the next four frames. The bats would add six more runs in the fifth inning, allowing a low-stress day for the bullpen. The five earned runs and five walks make Gibson’s line look pretty ugly, but he only gave up three hits and had eight strikeouts over 6.0 innings. He didn’t allow a single base runner from the third through sixth innings. Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton got the comeback started by hitting back-to-back homers. The big blast of the day came from Joe Mauer, who hit a grand slam in the fifth. Later that inning, Rosario addd his second home run of the day. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: bullpen917.png Looking Ahead Mon: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Jaime Garcia) , 6:05 pm CT Tue: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Yankees (CC Sabathia), 6:05 pm CT Wed: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka), 12:08 pm CT Looking Back TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR Click here to view the article

The Twins lost to the Blue Jays Saturday evening, but good luck trying to tell that to anybody at Target Field who was wearing a gorgeous red “From Worst To Thirst” shirt. We were all too busy having a great time to even notice (or maybe that was just me).Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot917.png The Twins may have lost Saturday night, but it could have been worse if not for a brave pub crawler. In the middle of the fifth inning, with the Twins already down 3-0, a brave man recklessly tore through Minnie & Paul’s reminding every fan he could possibly get the attention of that the Twins were in the process of being no-hit. Some fans met this news with disgust, but the brave town crier carried out his job, undeterred by the negative reactions, for he knew somewhere, somehow the Baseball Gods were listening. Thankfully, the brave work of that unknown man (it was Nick Nelson) paid off, and the no-hitter was effectively jinxed. Eddie Rosario blasted a homer run in the bottom of the fifth, his 24th of the season. What of the rest of the game? Well, never mind that. Rest happily knowing that there was many a pub crawler who had an excellent evening watching a meaningful Minnesota Twins game on a wonderful mid-September evening. Looking back to March, could you have asked for anything better than that? Yes, the Twins lost. Yes, the stadium was filled with Blue Jays fans. Does that make us all losers by association? … Wait, what were we talking about again? AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 82-66 (+5.0) WC2: Twins 77-71 Angels 76-72 (-1.0) Seattle 74-75 (-3.5) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen917.png Looking Ahead Sun: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Blue Jays (Joe Biagini), 1:10 pm CT Mon: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Jaime Garcia) , 6:05 pm CT Tue: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Yankees (CC Sabathia), 6:05 pm CT Looking Back TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning Click here to view the article

After a pair of big wins on big blasts, the Twins fell Friday due in large part to an unlucky bounce. Bartolo Colon got off to a nice start on Big Sexy night at Target Field, but things started to go a bit south and the bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding. Ryan Pressly failed to pounce on a bunt and gave up the go-ahead single on a ball that deflected off his leg.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot915.png With the game tied at 3-3 with two outs in the seventh inning, Josh Donaldson sent a comebacker right toward Ryan Pressly. The ball ricocheted off Pressly’s leg and shot toward the hole between shortstop and third base. Jorge Polanco, who had broken toward where the ball had been hit, could merely watch the go-ahead run cross the plate as he retrieved the ball. The Blue Jays bullpen did an excellent job of making that one-run advantage hold up, combining for 2.2 perfect innings. The Twins led 3-1 heading into the top of the sixth, but Colon started to run out of gas and Pressly couldn’t quite contain the Jays. Big Sexy gave up a solo homer to Donaldson in the sixth, but had a very manageable pitch count. He opened the seventh by walking the leadoff man and giving up a double to the next batter. On the very first pitch Pressly threw, he was unable to bounce on a bunt (there goes that word again), and gave up a single. With the bases juiced, he managed to retire the next two batters, but Donaldson’s tough-luck comebacker was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back. Colon gave up four earned runs on five hits and two walks over 6.0 innings. He had just one strikeout. Brian Dozier was 2-for-4 and hit his 31st homer, which was the Twins lone extra-base hit. Byron Buxton was also 2-or-4 and stole his 26th base. Tyler Duffey had been scuffling, but he held Toronto scoreless over the final two innings. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 81-66 (+4.0) WC2: Twins 77-70 Angels 74-72 (-2.5)* Friday game still in progress when this published. Seattle 74-74 (-3.5) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen915.png Looking Ahead Sat: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Blue Jays (Marco Estrada), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Blue Jays (Joe Biagini), 1:10 pm CT Mon: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Sonny Gray) , 6:05 pm CT Looking Back MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning MIN 16, SDP 0: MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record Click here to view the article

Per b-ref, he's 5-for-5 vs. LHP. Byron doesn't need to know the stats, that's not his job. That's on the manager and his staff to know that stuff. Not saying they don't, they may have been fully aware of all the numbers and just decided to bunt instead.

I don't think there's any way Eddie Rosario, of all people, is ever thinking bunt. Dude oozes confidence, loves the spotlight and had just hit a walk-off homer the previous night. I think he'd have loved the opportunity to hit in that spot. Also, Toronto was prepared for a bunt in that situation (no outs, man on first, one-run game) so trying to bunt for a hit is a poor strategy there. It's not like you were going to catch them off guard.

Just throwing this out there ... Runners are 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts against Aaron Loup this season and 13-for-15 since the start of 2014. Their catcher, Luke Maile, is 16-for-51 in throwing guys out over his career (31.4%), which is above league average.

Fixed Thanks Brock, I appreciate it. Being able to contribute to Twins Daily for me is kinda like if your favorite band asked you to join them on tour or something like that. This has been a ton of fun.

Good teams find a way to prevail. Good players do, too. Byron Buxton hit a walk-off homer in the 10th inning, giving the Twins walk-off wins on consecutive nights. Matt Belisle blew the save in the ninth inning, giving up a solo homer, and Paul Molitor made some curious decisions in the eighth but luckily at the end of the day none of that matters much.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot914.png Might as well get right to it, here’s video of the walk-off homer: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen914.png Looking Ahead Fri: Twins (Bartolo Colon) vs. Blue Jays (J.A. Happ), 7:10 pm CT Sat: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Blue Jays (Marco Estrada), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Blue Jays (Joe Biagini), 1:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning MIN 16, SDP 0: MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co. Click here to view the article

Both those guys were outstanding, but just didn't make quite enough starts to break into the top 5 for me. Turley only made 13 starts in the minors, pitching 64 innings in that role. I think Clark Beeker's scoreless inning steak was longer than that. LOL Ok, that's exaggerating a bit, but I did think the guys who performed over a bigger sample deserved some more consideration. Though, obviously going with Gonsalves, that wasn't the deciding factor for me either. Again, this one was really difficult for me.

Yup, used five relievers to throw a total of 16 pitches in that game.

Just like Gabriel Moya on the reliever side, Zack Littell would've been the easy choice had all his stats this season come with the Twins. But just 41.2 of his 157 innings were with the Chattanooga.

The Twins were off on Monday