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Everything posted by Tom Froemming
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I'd love it if they brought back Kintzler to close and got Iglesias to be the setup guy/bullpen ace. That allows Iglesias to pitch in the most high-leverage spots and prevents him from opting into arbitration. The only thing relievers can do to make big bucks there is rack up saves. It's always going to sting to give up prospects, but I think this team is in the position to make that kind of a move, especially for a long-term asset like Iglesias.
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Surprise Saguaros game, Thursday Nov 9
Tom Froemming commented on ashbury's blog entry in Left Coast Bias
How was the ballpark experience? -
2018 Twins Blueprint
Tom Froemming commented on Baseball Bat's blog entry in Baseball Bat's Offseason Blueprint
This is great. I know he's on the decline, but I still think Bautista would make a ton of sense, especially on a one-year deal. Even in a down year he had a walk rate of 12.2% and averaged 4.35 pitches/plate appearance, which was the sixth in all of baseball (right behind Mauer). Toronto gave him 686 PAs last year. If used a bit more sparingly, could he have a Thome-esque renaissance season? Maybe that's too much to ask, but I certainly agree that Bautista represents a low-risk, potentially high-reward option. -
That's some odd logic. You don't think he's much of a prospect, but you think he should be higher up on a top prospect ranking? I guess it all depends on your methodology in ranking guys. Personally, I wouldn't put much of an emphasis on proximity to the majors and may have Slegers even lower than Seth. That's not to say I don't like him, but his ceiling is quite a bit lower (funny thing to say about a guy that's 6'10") than a Leach/Lachlan/other guys of that ilk.
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Article: Supplementing The Twins: A Rotation Trio
Tom Froemming replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Another good one. Nice work on these, Ted. My concerns with FA pitchers are much more around decline in performance rather than injury risk. You hate to pay a guy to sit on the DL, but having a high-paid starter who you're all but forced to keep rolling out there despite struggles is maybe even worse. With that said, I'm really intrigued by Cobb. He's got a 112 ERA+ over 700 innings in his career. The injuries are a concern, but if healthy I'm confident he'll be at the very least a guy you want in your rotation. Chacin has a nearly identical 111 ERA+ in over 1,000 career innings, but he's been much less consistent. The big gap between the two comes in K:BB ratio. Cobb has a career mark of 2.79, Chacin 1.94 (2.13 and 2.16 the past two seasons). I could definitely see a scenario in which you sign Chacin and three months later you're already thinking "geez, we have guys in the minors I'd way rather see pitching every fifth day than this guy." -
Targeting the Trade Market - Wheelin' and Dealin'
Tom Froemming commented on John Olson's blog entry in Four Six Three
Good stuff, but if I'm the Twins I think I'm approaching the 2018 season under the assumption that Miguel Sano is going to be DHing more often than not. The whole fact that he might need a titanium rod in his leg is freaking me out. Maybe everything will be fine and he'll be able to return to 3B without issue, but I'd rather not bank on that.- 4 comments
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Article: Supplementing the Twins: Tyler Chatwood
Tom Froemming replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good points about catching. Chatwood's called strike percentage heatmap looks considerably worse than Ervin Santana's, Jose Berrios' or Kyle Gibson's. That's not 100 percent on the catcher, as we saw in the Wild Card game if a pitcher misses his spot badly a strike can often get called a ball, but by comparing those heatmaps I'd be willing to bargain Chatwood would have a nice boost in called strikes throwing to Castro. -
Article: Supplementing the Twins: Tyler Chatwood
Tom Froemming replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This scares me: 2017 BB% (min 100 IP) 12.8 Wade Miley 12.5 Sean Newcomb 12.2 Tyler Chatwood -
While statistical analysis has evolved greatly, the valuation process in arbitration hasn't, and I don't believe it will. Sano puts up the kind of numbers that make you the big bucks in arbitration (HRs & RBIs mostly) so I think it would be a good idea for the Twins to try to get some cost certainty and lock him up. But, if they're going to try to do it this winter, I'd expect a bit of an uncertainty discount given his injury. If he really ends up needing a titanium rod in his leg, who knows how he comes back from that. With all that said, I doubt anything gets done. It's just kinda weird timing for both sides.
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Problem is you could say the same thing for 7-8 guys this year. Who do you take out of the top 5 to put Escobar in? What does your top 5 look like?
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This may surprise some people, but I think this is great. I think Paul Molitor as manager gives this team the best chance to take the next step in 2018. With some key names entering the last year on the contracts (Mauer, Dozier & Ervin, though he has an option for '19) this next season could represent this group's final shot together. The fact that he got a three-year deal is on the Twins. At this point, Molitor had every right to request that long of a deal. I'm sure they could have signed him to a shorter extension if they'd approached him earlier. I'd expect he would have gladly agreed to a one-year extension at this time a year ago, or a two-year deal in July. The Twins dragged their feet in their evaluation of him, the three-year deal is the price they pay for that (not that he can't get fired if things go south). But this should put to bed any speculation that Molitor isn't Falvey's guy and that he'd prefer to bring in someone else. If this front office had another guy in mind, this deal wouldn't be happening. Having both the front office and now the manager under long-term commitments should foster further continuity throughout the organization. Hopefully that strengthens the relationship between the manager and the front office and encourages further collaboration from the two.
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Article: Decision On Paul Molitor Looming
Tom Froemming replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's the number of successful sacrifices. B-Ref has the number of attempts: 58-White Sox 53-Twins 40-Rangers 40-Blue Jays AL average was 32.- 129 replies
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In the list of games. The 10 are in bold and have a couple indented sentences under them explaining why those games were special.
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Minnesota Blah – Tribulations and Tears
Tom Froemming commented on markroehl's blog entry in Blog markroehl
Stop watching all the men's teams and just follow the Lynx. Problem solved. -
Article: Decision On Paul Molitor Looming
Tom Froemming replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think it's entirely possible that the Twins will want him back, Molitor will want to come back, but they won't be able to come to an agreement on length of contract/balance of power. I would think it'd be likely Molitor would request a three-year deal and increased influence over roster decisions. And I see nothing wrong with that. Why come back on a short-term deal and be at the mercy of the front office? That's all speculation, of course, but I could definitely see a scenario in which both sides desire a reunion, but the fine details prevent it from happening.- 129 replies
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The fun part is there are still a lot of things I would love to include in these things, but just didn't quite find the right way to do them. That constant evolution of the format is another thing that kept these fresh and fun for me. The win expectancy charts are like my favorite thing ever, but I'd also love to somehow include a traditional box score and have it look good. I'd also love to do more with video, but it's time consuming to throw stuff together and MLB doesn't make it very easy to share their stuff. The big thing for me with video is I don't want to have to direct people to an external site to watch or make them sit through ads, so that stubbornness puts a limitation on things. If anybody else has any other ideas to improve these I'm all ears. I can't make any promises that I'll be able to implement those ideas, time is a factor and a lot of stuff isn't even available right when a game ends (I'm looking at you, baseball-reference), but I will definitely look into it.
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And so it ends. We saw the 2017 Minnesota Twins put together the greatest bounce-back season in team history, but just because this team would never say die didn’t mean it could live forever. As a way to look back on what was an unforgettable season, here is every game recap published at Twins Daily this season all in one place. I’ve also highlighted my personal top-10 moments and added some brief notes.There were obviously some great moments prior to when I started the recaps, probably the most memorable for me was Joe Mauer’s first career walkoff homer to beat the Red Sox in early May. JUNE 6 | Seattle 12, Twins 3: Santiago Still Struggling, Dozier Still Slugging 7 | Seattle 6, Twins 5: Kintzler Can’t Close it Out, Zunino Blasts Walk-Off HR 8 | Twins 2, Seattle 1: Pitching, Defense and a Castro Blast 9 | Twins 4, San Francisco 0: Superman Santana Ervin pitched a Maddux and hit a bases-clearing double. Eat your heart out, Madison Bumgarner. Maybe the Twins should’ve DHed Ervin in the Wild Card game. 10 | Twins 3, San Francisco 2: Dozier, Vargas Power Twins Behind Solid Start From Berrios11 | Giants 13, Twins 8: Bullpen Vets Lead Twins To Loss 12 | Mariners 14, Twins 3: Mejia Crushed, Gimenez Pitches Again 13 | Twins 20, Mariners 7: Twins Set Franchise Record With 28 Hits 14 | Mariners 6, Twins 4: Buxton’s Big Night 15 | Twins 6, Mariners 2: Berrios Cruises, Gimenez Bruises 16 | Cleveland 8, Twins 1: AL Central Lead Dwindles 17 | Recap: Doubleheader Sweep Puts Cleveland Atop Division 18 | Cleveland 5, Twins 2: Encarnaci-Owned 19 | OFF 20 | Twins 9, White Sox 7: Vargas Hits One To Venus 21 | Twins 4, White Sox 2: The Machine Set To Attack Mode 22 | White Sox 9, Twins 0: Another Gimenez Game 23 | Twins 5, Cleveland 0: Mejia Battles Through, Hildenberger Debuts 24 | Twins 4, Cleveland 2: Skeleton Crew Beats Kluber, Allen The Twins beat Corey Kluber on a day in which their corner outfielders were Gimenez and Grossman. There was no Sano, no Rosario and no Kepler and the team beat arguably the best pitcher in baseball. The game ended on a fabulous diving catch by Buxton. The Twins completed their sweep at Cleveland the next day. 25 | Twins 4, Cleveland 0: What a Difference a Week Makes26 | Red Sox 4, Twins 1: Sale Outduels Berrios 27 | Twins 2, Red Sox 9: Rain, Defense Put Damper On Soggy Night (by Seth Stohs) 28 | Twins 4, Red Sox 1: Mejia Shines, Kepler Powers Twins To Fenway Win (by Seth Stohs) 29 | Red Sox 6, Twins 3: Series of Unfortunate Events 30 | Royals 8, Twins 1: Another Fielding Blunder Leads to Another Ugly Inning JULY 1 | Recap: Sano Homers Twice, Jorge Impresses as Twins Split 2 | Royals 6, Twins 2: Behind Santiago, Road Trip Ends in Disappointment 3 | Twins 9, Angels 5: Mejia, Mauer, Max Lead Twins to Victory 4 | Twins 5, Angels 4: Buxton Busts Out as Gibson Glides 5 | Angels 2, Twins 1: Angels Steal a Victory, Spoil Santana’s CG 6 | Twins 6, Orioles 4: Twins Use Big Inning To Top Orioles (by Seth Stohs) 7 | Twins 9, Orioles 6: Twins Rally Back From 6-Run Deficit This game left quite an impression on me. One of the earlier showings of this team’s determination, this was the team’s biggest comeback victory of the year. Hildenberger earned his first MLB victory. Oh, and Buxton scored from first base on a ground ball hit to the shortstop. 8 | Orioles 5, Twins 1: Sano Homers, Twins Leave 11 Men On Base9 | Orioles 11, Twins 5: Granite’s Great Catch Highlights Final Game of First Half 10 | OFF 11 | OFF 12 | OFF 13 | OFF 14 | Astros 10, Twins 5: Berrios Bombs 15 | Twins 4, Astros 2: Reliable Rogers Escapes Bases-Loaded Jam 16 | Astros 5, Twins 3: Defensive Shortcomings Spoil Solid Start From Gibson 17 | Twins 4, Yankees 2: Pitching, Defense, Timely Hitting Lead to Victory 18 | Yankees 6, Twins 3: Bartolopalooza Ends in Defeat 19 | Twins 6, Yankees 1: Berrios, Sano Lift Twins to Series Victory 20 | OFF 21 | Tigers 6, Twins 3: Bad Santana 22 | Twins 6, Tigers 5: Twins Hold Off Tigers 23 | DET 9, MIN 6: Twins Drop to Third in Division, 2.5 Games Back 24 | LAD 6, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Bellinger Blast, Blows Lead 25 | Twins 2, Dodgers 6: Twins Fall Below .500 (by Seth Stohs) 26 | LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da 27 | OFF 28 | Twins 6, A's 3: Garcia Wins First (Last?) Twins Start (by Seth Stohs) 29 | OAK 5, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Walk-Off HR 30 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Deja Vu 31 | OFF AUGUST 1 | SDP 3, MIN 0: Don’t Need a Closer if You Can’t Score 2 | MIN 5, SDP 2: Don’t Need a Closer When You’ve Got Erv 3 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Muster Just 3 Hits in Loss 4 | MIN 8, TEX 4: Colon Pitches a Complete Game (Yes, Really) Colon pitched a complete game at 44-years-old. I’m still not sure that’s sunk in yet for me. Unbelievable. Following the disappointment of the trade deadline things could’ve turned ugly, but this game seemed to loosen things up again. 5 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Struggle to Score Without Sano, Mauer6 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Belisle Earns First Post-Kintzler Save 7 | MIN 5, MIL 4: Rosario Scores Go-Ahead Run on Balk, Polanco Collects 4 Hits 8 | MIN 11, MIL 4: Twins Slug 5 Home Runs 9 | MIN 4, MIL 0: Big Sexy With 7 Scoreless Lifts Twins Back to .500 10 | MIN 7, MIL 2: 5 Alive! 11 | MIN 9, DET 4: WE COMIN’!!! If you couldn’t tell by the headline, I was pretty excited about this one. This win put the Twins in a tie with Seattle for the second wild card spot. Buxton made a great diving catch at the warning track. Torii Hunter, who was in the booth for that game, put it best: “Oh my goodness … REALLY!?!?!?” Max also made a great grab that he and Dozier turned into a double play. 12 | DET 12, MIN 11: Twins Lose Crazy Game On Walk-Off HR13 | MIN 6, DET 4: Twins Match 2016 Win Total With 46 Games Left to Play 14 | OFF 15 | CLE 8, MIN 1: Salazar Dominates, Cleveland Hits 5 HRs 16 | POSTPONED 17 | Recap: Slegers Shines in Debut, Twins Split Doubleheader 18 | MIN 10, ARI 3: Buxton Inside-the-Parker Highlights 6 HR Game for Twins The fastest man in baseball put on a show. Buxton tripled and hit an inside-the-park homer, plus the Twins clubbed five more bombs over the fence, including two from Sano. 19 | MIN 5, ARI 0: Berri-0s20 | MIN 12, ARI 5: Twins Sweep Arizona, Have Won 11 of Last 14 21 | Recap: Polanco Homers Twice as Twins Split Doubleheader 22 | MIN 4, CWS 1: Gibson Great, Twins Hit 3 More Homers 23 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Twins Bullpen Blows Lead 24 | CWS 5, MIN 1: Twins Drop Ugly Game, Series to White Sox 25 | MIN 6, TOR 1: Buxton, Bartolo Get Twins Back to Winning Ways 26 | TOR 10, MIN 9: Sloppy 8th Inning Costs Twins in Comeback Effort 27 | MIN 7, TOR 2: Buxton Hits 3 Homers, Twins Win Series at Toronto Buxton already had a signature game displaying his speed, this was where he showcased his power. For a big chunk of the season, people were calling for Buxton to just hit the ball on the ground. This three-homer game shut most of those people up. 28 | OFF29 | MIN 6, CHW 4: Polanco Does it All 30 | MIN 11, CHW 1: Rosario Hits 2 HRs, Buxton Exits With Injury 31 | MIN 5, CHW 4: Twins Win on Walk-Off HBP SEPTEMBER 1 | KC 7, MIN 6: Oh, So Close 2 | MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential? 3 | KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway? 4 | TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand 5 | TB 2, MIN 1: Too Little, Too Late 6 | MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error 7 | MIN 4, KC 2: Comeback Complete 8 | MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together 9 | KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss 10 | KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co. 11 | OFF 12 | MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record This was the first time in MLB history a team hit a home run in each of the first seven innings of a game. That’s a lot of games. Seven homers. Seven! Also, Goodrum got his first-career hit and Moya made his Major League debut. Plus (yes, there’s more) both Buxton and Granite made great catches. 13 | MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning14 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR What’s better than a walk-off homer? Walk-off homers in back-to-back games! After Rosario sent everybody home happy the night before, and Buxton stepped up in this one. What an incredible three-game stretch of awesomeness we were treated to here. 15 | TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce16 | TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss 17 | MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory 18 | NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins 19 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins 20 | NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) 21 | MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back 22 | MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling 23 | MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen 24 | MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again 25 | OFF 26 | MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory They did it again, another comeback. Trailing Cleveland 6-4 in the eighth inning, Dozier clobbered a three-run oppo taco. Buxton also made another insane catch in a key situation. All this on a day in which their starter lasted just one inning due to illness. 27 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway28 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings 29 | MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory 30 | DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game OCTOBER 1 | MIN 5, DET 1: Behind Castro, Colon Twins Cap Off Regular Season With Victory 2 | OFF 3 | NYY 8, MIN 4: It’s Over And that does it. You’ll have to let me know what your personal favorites were. I jumped headfirst into these recaps, but from the get-go I was as skeptical as anyone about my ability to keep up. This was a challenge of mental endurance more than anything. I had the time, it was all about staying motivated. These recaps are really fun, but nobody wants to eat their favorite meal every night for dinner. Seth Stohs chipped in on a handful of nights between June and July, but I did 101 of these things. This is significant for me because I started writing in 2004 and up until this point the only thing that was consistent about the effort in my writing was that it was inconsistent. I could never see anything through to the finish. This was tough to do night in and night out for this long and I’m damn proud to have made it to the finish line. It probably looks super tacky for me to be patting myself on the back like this, but I don’t even care. I’d like to thank some people. First and foremost, I want to thank my wife and our one-year-old daughter. They’re the best. I want to thank Seth for the opportunity and all the founders/contributors/moderators/community members who built this place up so I could just waltz in five years later and write on the best Twins destination on the Internet. The real strength of these recaps is they’re sort of a collage, so I want to make sure to thank all the places that made these possible: FOX Sports North, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, the Twins and all the beat writers. I also want to thank everybody who read these things. You folks helped point out errors, suggested new ideas and added tons of interesting insights in the comments section. Honestly, I couldn’t have kept going without you. The bottom line was always to make these recaps valuable to the reader. I sincerely hope they contributed to your enjoyment of the 2017 season. Click here to view the article
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Recapping The Recaps: Looking Back At The Top-10 Moments & More
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
There were obviously some great moments prior to when I started the recaps, probably the most memorable for me was Joe Mauer’s first career walkoff homer to beat the Red Sox in early May. JUNE 6 | Seattle 12, Twins 3: Santiago Still Struggling, Dozier Still Slugging 7 | Seattle 6, Twins 5: Kintzler Can’t Close it Out, Zunino Blasts Walk-Off HR 8 | Twins 2, Seattle 1: Pitching, Defense and a Castro Blast 9 | Twins 4, San Francisco 0: Superman Santana Ervin pitched a Maddux and hit a bases-clearing double. Eat your heart out, Madison Bumgarner. Maybe the Twins should’ve DHed Ervin in the Wild Card game. 10 | Twins 3, San Francisco 2: Dozier, Vargas Power Twins Behind Solid Start From Berrios 11 | Giants 13, Twins 8: Bullpen Vets Lead Twins To Loss 12 | Mariners 14, Twins 3: Mejia Crushed, Gimenez Pitches Again 13 | Twins 20, Mariners 7: Twins Set Franchise Record With 28 Hits 14 | Mariners 6, Twins 4: Buxton’s Big Night 15 | Twins 6, Mariners 2: Berrios Cruises, Gimenez Bruises 16 | Cleveland 8, Twins 1: AL Central Lead Dwindles 17 | Recap: Doubleheader Sweep Puts Cleveland Atop Division 18 | Cleveland 5, Twins 2: Encarnaci-Owned 19 | OFF 20 | Twins 9, White Sox 7: Vargas Hits One To Venus 21 | Twins 4, White Sox 2: The Machine Set To Attack Mode 22 | White Sox 9, Twins 0: Another Gimenez Game 23 | Twins 5, Cleveland 0: Mejia Battles Through, Hildenberger Debuts 24 | Twins 4, Cleveland 2: Skeleton Crew Beats Kluber, Allen The Twins beat Corey Kluber on a day in which their corner outfielders were Gimenez and Grossman. There was no Sano, no Rosario and no Kepler and the team beat arguably the best pitcher in baseball. The game ended on a fabulous diving catch by Buxton. The Twins completed their sweep at Cleveland the next day. 25 | Twins 4, Cleveland 0: What a Difference a Week Makes 26 | Red Sox 4, Twins 1: Sale Outduels Berrios 27 | Twins 2, Red Sox 9: Rain, Defense Put Damper On Soggy Night (by Seth Stohs) 28 | Twins 4, Red Sox 1: Mejia Shines, Kepler Powers Twins To Fenway Win (by Seth Stohs) 29 | Red Sox 6, Twins 3: Series of Unfortunate Events 30 | Royals 8, Twins 1: Another Fielding Blunder Leads to Another Ugly Inning JULY 1 | Recap: Sano Homers Twice, Jorge Impresses as Twins Split 2 | Royals 6, Twins 2: Behind Santiago, Road Trip Ends in Disappointment 3 | Twins 9, Angels 5: Mejia, Mauer, Max Lead Twins to Victory 4 | Twins 5, Angels 4: Buxton Busts Out as Gibson Glides 5 | Angels 2, Twins 1: Angels Steal a Victory, Spoil Santana’s CG 6 | Twins 6, Orioles 4: Twins Use Big Inning To Top Orioles (by Seth Stohs) 7 | Twins 9, Orioles 6: Twins Rally Back From 6-Run Deficit This game left quite an impression on me. One of the earlier showings of this team’s determination, this was the team’s biggest comeback victory of the year. Hildenberger earned his first MLB victory. Oh, and Buxton scored from first base on a ground ball hit to the shortstop. 8 | Orioles 5, Twins 1: Sano Homers, Twins Leave 11 Men On Base 9 | Orioles 11, Twins 5: Granite’s Great Catch Highlights Final Game of First Half 10 | OFF 11 | OFF 12 | OFF 13 | OFF 14 | Astros 10, Twins 5: Berrios Bombs 15 | Twins 4, Astros 2: Reliable Rogers Escapes Bases-Loaded Jam 16 | Astros 5, Twins 3: Defensive Shortcomings Spoil Solid Start From Gibson 17 | Twins 4, Yankees 2: Pitching, Defense, Timely Hitting Lead to Victory 18 | Yankees 6, Twins 3: Bartolopalooza Ends in Defeat 19 | Twins 6, Yankees 1: Berrios, Sano Lift Twins to Series Victory 20 | OFF 21 | Tigers 6, Twins 3: Bad Santana 22 | Twins 6, Tigers 5: Twins Hold Off Tigers 23 | DET 9, MIN 6: Twins Drop to Third in Division, 2.5 Games Back 24 | LAD 6, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Bellinger Blast, Blows Lead 25 | Twins 2, Dodgers 6: Twins Fall Below .500 (by Seth Stohs) 26 | LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da 27 | OFF 28 | Twins 6, A's 3: Garcia Wins First (Last?) Twins Start (by Seth Stohs) 29 | OAK 5, MIN 4: Rogers Gives Up Walk-Off HR 30 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Deja Vu 31 | OFF AUGUST 1 | SDP 3, MIN 0: Don’t Need a Closer if You Can’t Score 2 | MIN 5, SDP 2: Don’t Need a Closer When You’ve Got Erv 3 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Muster Just 3 Hits in Loss 4 | MIN 8, TEX 4: Colon Pitches a Complete Game (Yes, Really) Colon pitched a complete game at 44-years-old. I’m still not sure that’s sunk in yet for me. Unbelievable. Following the disappointment of the trade deadline things could’ve turned ugly, but this game seemed to loosen things up again. 5 | TEX 4, MIN 1: Twins Struggle to Score Without Sano, Mauer 6 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Belisle Earns First Post-Kintzler Save 7 | MIN 5, MIL 4: Rosario Scores Go-Ahead Run on Balk, Polanco Collects 4 Hits 8 | MIN 11, MIL 4: Twins Slug 5 Home Runs 9 | MIN 4, MIL 0: Big Sexy With 7 Scoreless Lifts Twins Back to .500 10 | MIN 7, MIL 2: 5 Alive! 11 | MIN 9, DET 4: WE COMIN’!!! If you couldn’t tell by the headline, I was pretty excited about this one. This win put the Twins in a tie with Seattle for the second wild card spot. Buxton made a great diving catch at the warning track. Torii Hunter, who was in the booth for that game, put it best: “Oh my goodness … REALLY!?!?!?” Max also made a great grab that he and Dozier turned into a double play. 12 | DET 12, MIN 11: Twins Lose Crazy Game On Walk-Off HR 13 | MIN 6, DET 4: Twins Match 2016 Win Total With 46 Games Left to Play 14 | OFF 15 | CLE 8, MIN 1: Salazar Dominates, Cleveland Hits 5 HRs 16 | POSTPONED 17 | Recap: Slegers Shines in Debut, Twins Split Doubleheader 18 | MIN 10, ARI 3: Buxton Inside-the-Parker Highlights 6 HR Game for Twins The fastest man in baseball put on a show. Buxton tripled and hit an inside-the-park homer, plus the Twins clubbed five more bombs over the fence, including two from Sano. 19 | MIN 5, ARI 0: Berri-0s 20 | MIN 12, ARI 5: Twins Sweep Arizona, Have Won 11 of Last 14 21 | Recap: Polanco Homers Twice as Twins Split Doubleheader 22 | MIN 4, CWS 1: Gibson Great, Twins Hit 3 More Homers 23 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Twins Bullpen Blows Lead 24 | CWS 5, MIN 1: Twins Drop Ugly Game, Series to White Sox 25 | MIN 6, TOR 1: Buxton, Bartolo Get Twins Back to Winning Ways 26 | TOR 10, MIN 9: Sloppy 8th Inning Costs Twins in Comeback Effort 27 | MIN 7, TOR 2: Buxton Hits 3 Homers, Twins Win Series at Toronto Buxton already had a signature game displaying his speed, this was where he showcased his power. For a big chunk of the season, people were calling for Buxton to just hit the ball on the ground. This three-homer game shut most of those people up. 28 | OFF 29 | MIN 6, CHW 4: Polanco Does it All 30 | MIN 11, CHW 1: Rosario Hits 2 HRs, Buxton Exits With Injury 31 | MIN 5, CHW 4: Twins Win on Walk-Off HBP SEPTEMBER 1 | KC 7, MIN 6: Oh, So Close 2 | MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential? 3 | KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway? 4 | TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand 5 | TB 2, MIN 1: Too Little, Too Late 6 | MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error 7 | MIN 4, KC 2: Comeback Complete 8 | MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together 9 | KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss 10 | KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co. 11 | OFF 12 | MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record This was the first time in MLB history a team hit a home run in each of the first seven innings of a game. That’s a lot of games. Seven homers. Seven! Also, Goodrum got his first-career hit and Moya made his Major League debut. Plus (yes, there’s more) both Buxton and Granite made great catches. 13 | MIN 3, SDP 1: Rosario Hits Walk-Off HR in 10th Inning 14 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR What’s better than a walk-off homer? Walk-off homers in back-to-back games! After Rosario sent everybody home happy the night before, and Buxton stepped up in this one. What an incredible three-game stretch of awesomeness we were treated to here. 15 | TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce 16 | TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss 17 | MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory 18 | NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins 19 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins 20 | NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) 21 | MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back 22 | MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling 23 | MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen 24 | MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again 25 | OFF 26 | MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory They did it again, another comeback. Trailing Cleveland 6-4 in the eighth inning, Dozier clobbered a three-run oppo taco. Buxton also made another insane catch in a key situation. All this on a day in which their starter lasted just one inning due to illness. 27 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway 28 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings 29 | MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory 30 | DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game OCTOBER 1 | MIN 5, DET 1: Behind Castro, Colon Twins Cap Off Regular Season With Victory 2 | OFF 3 | NYY 8, MIN 4: It’s Over And that does it. You’ll have to let me know what your personal favorites were. I jumped headfirst into these recaps, but from the get-go I was as skeptical as anyone about my ability to keep up. This was a challenge of mental endurance more than anything. I had the time, it was all about staying motivated. These recaps are really fun, but nobody wants to eat their favorite meal every night for dinner. Seth Stohs chipped in on a handful of nights between June and July, but I did 101 of these things. This is significant for me because I started writing in 2004 and up until this point the only thing that was consistent about the effort in my writing was that it was inconsistent. I could never see anything through to the finish. This was tough to do night in and night out for this long and I’m damn proud to have made it to the finish line. It probably looks super tacky for me to be patting myself on the back like this, but I don’t even care. I’d like to thank some people. First and foremost, I want to thank my wife and our one-year-old daughter. They’re the best. I want to thank Seth for the opportunity and all the founders/contributors/moderators/community members who built this place up so I could just waltz in five years later and write on the best Twins destination on the Internet. The real strength of these recaps is they’re sort of a collage, so I want to make sure to thank all the places that made these possible: FOX Sports North, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, the Twins and all the beat writers. I also want to thank everybody who read these things. You folks helped point out errors, suggested new ideas and added tons of interesting insights in the comments section. Honestly, I couldn’t have kept going without you. The bottom line was always to make these recaps valuable to the reader. I sincerely hope they contributed to your enjoyment of the 2017 season.- 13 comments
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The Twins lost the Wild Card game. The circumstances in which it happened were pretty tough to swallow. This isn’t the kind of thing that’s easy to react to right away. Time is going to heal wounds and the good memories are going to outlast the bad ones, but right now … well, in the wise words of Joe Mauer “This sucks right now.”Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: NewSnap.png Brian Dozier hit a leadoff homer, Eddie Rosario added a two-run shot and the Twins were up 3-0 in the first inning. Hard to realistically imagine a better start for Twins fans. Luis Severino was bounced from the game after he recorded just one out. Just as euphoria began to sweep across Twins Territory, it was blown away just as quickly. Ervin Santana gives up a three-run homer to Didi Gregorius to tie the game in the bottom of the first inning. It’s OK, that’s just like a 0-0 ballgame, right? Santana gives up a homer to Brett Gardner in the bottom of the second to give the Yankees the lead. The Twins answered in the third, tying the game, but they also stranded runners on second and third base for the second straight inning. Jose Berrios took over for Ervin and the Yankees took the lead right back. The next inning, Aaron Judge delivered the finishing blow in the form of a two-run homer. The Yankees scored their final run off the game when Alan Buesnitz walked in a run on four pitches. There were plenty more downers in this one. The Twins were already forced to play without the injured Miguel Sano, but Byron Buxton was forced to leave this game in the bottom of the fourth due to a back injury he suffered while making another ridiculous catch in center field earlier in the game. What, that’s it? No, of course not! There is going to be plenty more analysis of this game and the entire 2017 season here at Twins Daily in the days to come. Tomorrow night I’ll be posting a recap of all the recaps, sort of a final sign-off from me, putting a nice bow on what has been an amazing experience for yours truly. Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Brian Dozier hit a leadoff homer, Eddie Rosario added a two-run shot and the Twins were up 3-0 in the first inning. Hard to realistically imagine a better start for Twins fans. Luis Severino was bounced from the game after he recorded just one out. Just as euphoria began to sweep across Twins Territory, it was blown away just as quickly. Ervin Santana gives up a three-run homer to Didi Gregorius to tie the game in the bottom of the first inning. It’s OK, that’s just like a 0-0 ballgame, right? Santana gives up a homer to Brett Gardner in the bottom of the second to give the Yankees the lead. The Twins answered in the third, tying the game, but they also stranded runners on second and third base for the second straight inning. Jose Berrios took over for Ervin and the Yankees took the lead right back. The next inning, Aaron Judge delivered the finishing blow in the form of a two-run homer. The Yankees scored their final run off the game when Alan Buesnitz walked in a run on four pitches. There were plenty more downers in this one. The Twins were already forced to play without the injured Miguel Sano, but Byron Buxton was forced to leave this game in the bottom of the fourth due to a back injury he suffered while making another ridiculous catch in center field earlier in the game. https://twitter.com/OzzieStern/status/915383849890336768 To add insult to injury -- literally -- Zack Granite, who replaced Buxton, provided an embarrassing moment in the top of the eighth inning when he stepped clear over first base and was tagged out. Just completely missed it. Did that feel good? Going for a walk down Loser’s Lane? No, didn’t think so, and in the end that’s not what the 2017 Minnesota Twins season was all about. Think about this: The Yankees are celebrating a playoff victory over the Twins right now. I realize that doesn’t sound like an unlikely scenario in the grand scheme of things, but flashback six months ago … hell, two and a half months ago ... and nobody could’ve seen this coming. Also, it took a homer from Judge, a guy who killed everybody this season, a dude who hit 52 homers and may win AL MVP, to really put away the Twins. Tonight will not go down as a memorable one for Twins fans, but the 2017 season sure will. This team completed the biggest turnaround in franchise history and became the first team to go from 100 losses to the postseason. A group of young players gained playoff experience -- elimination game experience -- at Yankee Stadium. The loss is tough to swallow right now, but there’s no question this Twins team will be better for going through it. My favorite story from this season was how after the trade deadline Paul Molitor wrote “No retreat, no surrender” on a whiteboard in the clubhouse. He was inspired by a Bruce Springsteen song he heard on his morning walk, Mike Berardino shared all the details in what is, in my opinion, the best piece of Twins writing from this season. His team seemed to take that message to heart and stormed back for an improbable finish even its own front office didn’t see coming. Today, looking forward, another lyric from The Boss comes to mind. Everything dies baby that’s a fact But maybe everything that dies someday comes back The 2017 Minnesota Twins season may be dead, but this franchise appears to be in as good a shape as it’s been in quite some time. The future is bright. Here’s hoping someday we look back on 2017 as a springboard season that catapulted the Twins back to a championship run. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/915435672676196352 Postgame With Mauer https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/915431131767382016 Postgame With Santana https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/915439184994721792 Postgame With Dozier https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/915436504863858688 What, that’s it? No, of course not! There is going to be plenty more analysis of this game and the entire 2017 season here at Twins Daily in the days to come. Tomorrow night I’ll be posting a recap of all the recaps, sort of a final sign-off from me, putting a nice bow on what has been an amazing experience for yours truly.
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That's a good point. I've never really looked into home plate umpire numbers or put thought into what they mean. It's really fun to be obsessing over a game to this level.
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That would make Star Wars day a heck of a lot more fun!
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Umpiring assignments are in. Alfonso Marquez will be behind home plate. He had the lowest K/9 rate of any umpire this year at 7.2. League average was 8.3. This is reading way, way too far into it, but if anything that could benefit the Twins. The Yankees staff is much more reliant on Ks.
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No player can have a bigger impact on a single game than the starting pitcher. Go out and throw a gem, you've put your team in excellent position to win. Turn in a clunker and your team may have already been sunk in the early innings. With that in mind, here's a deep look into how Yankee starter Luis Severino likes to attack hitters, Ervin Santana's history against the Yankees and some other notes regarding tomorrow's big game.All About Luis Severino Here’s the stat on Severino that makes me most optimistic: 23. As in, he’s only 23-years-old. Maybe that doesn’t matter, but if you take a look at the rest of his numbers, there’s aren't many things to pick at. He’s been phenomenal. Severino was the third-best pitcher in the AL behind only Chris Sale and Corey Kluber, so this is really grasping for straws, but he has been much worse at home and has not dominated lefties like he has same-sided pitchers. -Severino at Yankee Stadium: 3.71 ERA, 15 homers, .627 OPS. -Severino on the road: 2.24 ERA, six homers, .579 OPS. -Severino OPS Against: LHB: .667, RHB: .550. Current Twins hitters have a .813 OPS against Severino, but that's come in only 14 plate appearances. Not much to really go off there. Another thing about Severino is he’s fairly predictable. He’s a strict three-pitch guy and uses his arsenal as you’d expect. The slider is featured against righties (42.9 percent sliders vs. 7.8 percent changeups) and the change comes out more frequently against lefties (26.6 percent sliders vs. 19.8 percent changeups). He throws his four-seamer 51.35 percent of the time, but leans on that pitch slightly more against lefties. Like most pitchers, that four-seamer is his go-to pitch to open an at bat. He throws that for the first pitch 63.3 percent of the time. His strikeout pitch is the slider, which he throws 65.8 percent of the time when he has two strikes on a right-handed batter. To lefties, the four-seamer is actually is preferred pitch when he gets to two strikes, throwing that 51.5 percent of the time. His fastball averages 97.6 mph, the slider at 88.4 mph and the change is 87.8 mph. All that data is per Brooks Baseball, as are the charts below. One would imagine if right-handed hitters can just focus on pitches middle in, they should give Severino a tough time. That relies a lot on pitch recognition, however, which is much easier said than done against a guy who throws everything this hard. Here's how Severino attacks right-handers: Download attachment: SeverinoZone.gif And here's how he pitches to lefties: Download attachment: SeverinoLHB.gif On the Twins Platoon Advantage Another potential reason to be optimistic is Severino is a right-hander. The Twins were among baseball's best hitting team against righties, finishing fourth in OBP (.355), fifth in wOBA (.322) and sixth in both OPS (.777) and wRC+ (104). That's not much of a surprise, considering how many lefties and switch hitters the Twins rely on in their everyday lineup. That onslaught versus right-handers was led by Eddie Rosario, who had a .906 OPS, .377 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Rosie ranked in the top-15 in the AL in all three of those stats vs. RHP. The Yankees have two very tough lefties in their pen, but they’re in limited roles. Aroldis Chapman is their closer, so it’s not likely he’ll be deployed until the very last innings. Chasen Shreve has actually been even better against lefties than Chapman this year, holding them to a .498 OPS, but he’s a straight LOOGY. Right-handed batters have hit .227/.338/.491 (.829 OPS) off Shreve, accounting for seven of the eight homers he’s allowed. The Yankees also have lefties Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia and Jaime Garcia, but none of those three made a single relief appearance this season. Ervin Santana vs. the Yankees Unfortunately, this does not appear to be a great matchup for Ervin. -Career at new Yankee Stadium: 0-5 in six starts, seven HRs allowed, 6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP. -Vs. Current Yankee Hitters: .272/.316/.481 (.798 OPS) over 176 PAs. But something interesting about Santana in this one-game format is he actually had reverse platoon splits for the second-straight season. Lefties have hit .228/.284/.372 off Santana over that span, so there’s really no need to try and play matchups as long as he's on the mound. On Yankee Stadium At 51-30, the Yankees had the third-best home record in baseball, but the Twins were tied for the sixth-best road team at 44-37. We know Paul Molitor likes to play small ball, but this is a Yankees team that averaged 5.57 runs per game at home. Giving away outs to gain one run seems like a fool’s errand against this team in this run-scoring environment. The Twins have had the best offense in the AL since the All-Star break. There’s really no need to small ball. Yankee Stadium has the fifth-smallest outfield in baseball, so the Twins defense is not going to be as big a strength as it would be at Target Field. Some balls Max Kepler would easily glide under for harmless outs at home are going to sail over his head for homers at Yankee Stadium. On Roster Construction The two questions that really stick out to me are what to do with Miguel Sano and who do you trust as the second lefty out of the bullpen? Sano managed to return from his shin injury, but was clearly not 100 percent and went 1-for-8 with three strikeouts. Taylor Rogers is the obvious go-to guy to get a tough lefty out, but who would be the second option? Candidates include Buddy Boshers, Glen Perkins, Nik Turley and Gabriel Moya. Adalberto Mejia would be in the mix too, but he’s not accustomed to coming out of the bullpen. With those options, the Twins may be better served to just go with one of their better right-handers if the situation arises and hope for the best. For what it’s worth, lefties hit just .225/.244/.300 (.544 OPS) off Alan Buesnitz, though that's only a sample of 45 plate appearances. Additional Twins-Yankees related content at Twins Daily: Small Miracles: How To Beat The Yankees by Nick Nelson Ep 336: Twins vs Yankees by Gleeman & The Geek A Blueprint For The Bronx by Ted Schwerzler A Gedankenexperiment: Beating The Yankees by John Bonnes Those Damn Yankees by Nick Nelson Click here to view the article
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