Tom Froemming

The Twins aren’t dead yet, but they’ve given themselves very little room for error. They can’t afford to do things like, for example, blow seven-run leads. Well, it’s a good thing they didn’t do exactly that Friday, but things were pretty hairy there for a second.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Jake Odorizzi: 27 Game Score, 4.1 IP, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 58.4% strikes Bullpen: 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB Lineup: 6-for-13 w/RISP, 7 LOB WPA of 0.1 or higher: Grossman .125, Cave .124, Mauer .100 WPA of -0.1 or lower: None Download attachment: WinEx713.png Things got off to such a wonderful start. The Twins scored four runs on six hits in the first inning. They added four more runs in the third, with the big blow coming in the form of a Joe Mauer three-run homer. You build an 8-1 lead in the third and it should be easy sailing from there, right? The Rays did not go down quietly. Not. Even. Close. They added a run in the fourth before putting together a four-run inning of their own in the fifth. Another run in the sixth brought them back within a run. The Twins’ lineup just kept on rolling, however, as Brian Dozier hit a leadoff double, was driven in on an Eduardo Escobar single and then Esky scored on a Robbie Grossman double to give Minnesota a three-run cushion. Then, Trevor Hildenberger delivered what the Twins really needed: A clean inning. After Tampa Bay had scored in four consecutive frames, Hildy came in and struck out the side. Obviously this was a night where the offense shined, but Trevor coming in and slamming the door like that really seemed to represent the stomping out of any comeback the Rays were going to mount. Zach Duke followed with a clean eighth. These last three games have reminded me a lot of the 2017 second half Twins. Tons of crooked numbers coming from the bats. They’re not stringing together single runs in innings or just scoring on homers, they’re stringing things together and delivering with runners on. There were a ton of contributors, as you’d expect from a game in which 11 runs are scored on 15 hits, but Jake Cave was particularly impressive. He hit an RBI single over the shortstop in the first, a double to the left-center gap that plated another run in the third and then led off the seventh with a triple he pulled into the right-center gap. He’s now hitting .324 with a .928 OPS. Mauer drove in four and Grossman reached base safely four times, going 3-for-3 with a walk. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen713.png AL Central Standings CLE 51-42 MIN 43-49 (-7.5) DET 40-56 (-12.5) CHW 31-61 (-19.5) KC 26-66 (-24.5) Next Three Games Sat vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Chris Archer Sun vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: TBD All-Star Break Fri, July 20 at KC Last Three Games MIN 5, TB 1: Who’s the Snub? MIN 8, KC 5: Twins Recover from Rough Start KC 9, MIN 4: Slegers Slayed by Royals Click here to view the article

I may reveal my top 50 on YouTube and then share it in the forums here at some point, maybe not. I don't really feel like it needs its own post here since I feel really good a bout how this series went and, to be honest, I always look back at the consolidated lists and think they're actually better than my own. But for now I will give you the names on my personal top 50 that did not make the cut on the consolidated list: 37. Jovani Moran 38. Zander Wiel 39. Charlie Barnes 42. Tyler Benninghoff 44. Andrew Vasquez 45. Carlos Aguiar 46. David Banuelos 47. Michael Montero 48. Tom Hackimer 49. Alberoni Nunez 50. Trey Cabbage Misael Urbina hadn't signed when I compiled these rankings. I think I'd have felt comfortable putting him at No. 16.

I try to keep in mind that the higher up a player goes, the more and better information we have on them, and that also means there are more opportunities to poke holes in their game. When you take a look at some of the guys who've made it as high as Triple A, you see players who've already had their biggest weaknesses start to get exposed. That just doesn't happen yet while they're at the lower levels. But it's not like anything done below Double A should be ignored, or that the guys at the higher levels are never going to get over those issues that have arisen, so it's difficult to weight those kinds of things.

Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell was considered one of the bigger All-Star snubs this season. Well, if I didn’t know any better, I’d have definitely guessed Kyle Gibson was the starting pitcher in Thursday night’s matchup who was among the best pitchers in the American League this season who was snubbed for the All-Star Game. The Twins got to Snell, knocking him out after just three innings, while Gibby was dynamite, completing eight frames.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Kyle Gibson: 84 Game Score, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 63.7% strikes Bullpen: 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB Lineup: 2-for-7 w/RISP, 5 LOB WPA of 0.1 or higher: Gibson .370 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Astudillo -.111 Download attachment: WinEx712.png Gibson has been remarkably consistent, and entered this start having posted a 3.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 over the last 365 days. Still, we haven’t seen Kyle flatout dominate a team too often. He had held the Rays scoreless for seven innings and was over 100 pitches, but still went back out for the eighth. Gibson ended up surrendering a run in the eighth inning, but he also had his longest outing since Sept. 13, 2016. He gave up just five hits and struck out nine batters, but perhaps most impressive was the fact he did not walk a single batter over eight innings. This game didn’t get underway until after 9:00 pm thanks to a rainstorm, but once things got going Snell looked like he’d already been pitching for two hours. He managed to leave the bases loaded in the first inning, but then gave up a run in the second and two more in the third inning. That would be it for Snell, who was lifted after just 75 pitches. Eddie Rosario won’t be an All-Star, well unless he’s named as an injury replacement, but he played like one tonight. He was 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, his 19th of the season. The Twins’ bullpen made this one way too interesting at the end. Ryan Pressly came in for the ninth and promptly gave up a single and a walk. He struck out the next batter, but then gave up a single to load the bases. That resulted in Fernando Rodney being summoned from the bullpen. He managed to get the next two batters out, recording his 21st save of the season. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen713.png AL Central Standings CLE 50-42 MIN 42-49 (-7.5) DET 40-55 (-11.5) CHW 31-61 (-19) KC 26-66 (-24) Next Three Games Fri vs. TB, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Nathan Eovaldi Sat vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Chris Archer Sun vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: TBD Last Three Games MIN 8, KC 5: Twins Recover from Rough Start KC 9, MIN 4: Slegers Slayed by Royals MIN 3, KC 1: Minnesota’s All-Star Shines Click here to view the article

I asked because you said "If your recent second round draft pick is 18th in your system, your system is either crazy loaded, or he is underrated, or he is a bad pick." So it sounded like you were trying to say that typically a recent second-round pick should expected to be ranked higher than 18th.

This is a fun game to look back through the play log over at FanGraphs. After that Salvy homer, the Twins' win expectancy was just 25.9%. Then, despite holding a 5-4 lead at the time, they had just a 39.9% win expectancy before Pressly worked his magic to get out of that jam. Dozier's two-run blast swung the Twins' win expectancy all the way up to 89.8%. Such a huge sing there in the sixth inning.

The Royals scored three runs in the first thanks to a Twins blunder and a Sal Perez blast, but Lance Lynn righted the ship, the bats got rolling and the bullpen had an outstanding game. Minnesota pulled out the victory, tying its biggest comeback of the season, and also sealed the series win over Kansas City. The heroes were Ryan Pressly, Brian Dozier and Bobby Wilson. Believe it.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Lance Lynn: 36 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 57.9% strikes Bullpen: 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB Lineup: 3-for-7 w/RISP, 9 LOB WPA of 0.1 or higher: Dozier .399, Pressly .227, Wilson .208, Cave .144 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Lynn -.275, Escobar -.107 Download attachment: WinEx711.png Credit to Lynn, he got back on track despite the awful start to the game. He struck out the leadoff man, gave up a single, but then appeared to induce a potential inning-ending double play. Instead, Jorge Polanco couldn’t handle the feed at second and everybody was safe. Perez went down and launched a three-run homer on a ball that was below the zone. From there, Lynn gave up just one more run through five innings. Lynn went back out for the sixth inning and opened things up with a hit-by-pitch followed by a walk. Ryan Pressly came in and hit a batter of his own to load the bases with nobody out and the Twins holding just a one-run lead. Pressly retired the next three batters he faced to keep things clean in the top of the sixth. The bats provided some breathing room in the bottom of that inning, as Brian Dozier hit a two-run homer and Logan Morrison added a solo shot. Wilson had a great day at the plate. For real! He hit an RBI single with two outs in the second inning, added a run-scoring double in the fourth frame and then singled in the seventh. Altogether, the Twins had 15 hits with three from each of Wilson, Dozier and Joe Mauer. Jake Cave was 2-for-4 with a triple. After Pressly’s impressive Houdini act in the sixth, Zach Duke followed with a scoreless seventh and Alan Busenitz, who was activated as Addison Reed hit the DL, handled the final two frames. Busenitz gave up a solo homer with two down in the ninth. Next up for the Twins is a four-game series against the Rays at Target Field to close out the first half. After getting off to a bit of a sluggish start, Tampa Bay has gone 20-10 over its last 30 games. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen711.png AL Central Standings CLE 49-41 MIN 41-49 (-8) DET 40-55 (-11.5) CHW 30-61 (-19.5) KC 26-66 (-24) Next Three Games Thu vs. TB, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Blake Snell Fri vs. TB, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Nathan Eovaldi Sat vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Chris Archer Last Three Games KC 9, MIN 4: Slegers Slayed by Royals MIN 3, KC 1: Minnesota’s All-Star Shines MIN 10, BAL 1: Twins Pick Up First Sweep of 2018 Click here to view the article

The big challenge he'll face is there are just a ton of 1B/corner OF types in the system right now. One thing he's got in his favor is a lot of those other guys hit left-handed. Either way, I like Zander, he's a fun player. Much more athletic than you'd expect for a guy his size (listed at 6-3, 232 on MiLB). He's 20-for-25 on stolen base attempts for his career and last night he picked up his 16th career triple. That means Wiel has a better stolen base rate than speedsters like Zack Granite and Aaron Whitefield, plus he hits triples at nearly the same rate as Granite and far more often than Whitefield. That's a rally silly and mostly meaningless stat, I know, but it's a fun one.

Let's change that. All aboard the hype train! I'll start this off by saying I don't think anybody would have thought Brian Dozier would hit 40 home runs or Eduardo Escobar would potentially threaten to break the single-season doubles record. Jose Altuve is one of the best players in baseball, Max Muncy is going to be in the home run derby ... none of us know anything But seriously, Rortvedt is the only catcher in all of High A right now who's not old enough to legally drink and he's still managing to post a slightly above league average slash line. The whole thing about the FSL being a tough place to hit has been a message that's been really well delivered throughout the list so far, but it's also worth noting that it's been scientifically proven that the minor league ball doesn't travel as far as the version they use in MLB. It's really stupid that's the case, but it's something to keep in mind. Blankenhorn's numbers may not jump off the page, but he's slugging .406 in a league where .368 is the average. He's been a really streaky hitter throughout his career so far. He needs to learn how to hit lefties and be more consistent, but if it all clicks he's going to be a lot of fun. Wade and Thorpe's numbers speak for themselves. I compiled my list almost a month ago, and as I said earlier there wasn't much that separated my 7-15 range of guys. If I re-ranked everybody today, those two may have ended up a few spots higher. Looking at Wade through Twins-colored glasses, it certainly does appear that his future here is that of a bench player. There's a lot of competition for corner OF spots, but this is a career .293/.403/.439 hitter we're talking about who has 35 more walks than strikeouts over his career. Enlow is nearly three years younger than league average for the MWL and has not faced a single batter who's younger than he is. The results aren't outstanding, but he's being challenged and is at the very least surviving. In summary, it's clear that all five of these guys are future Hall of Famers

Aaron Slegers faced 11 Kansas City hitters Tuesday night, seven of them recorded hits. He lasted just 1 1/3 innings and gave up five runs. That doesn’t give a team much of a chance to win a ballgame. The Twins’ bullpen did a nice job getting things pointed in the right direction until Addison Reed had yet another bad outing in the ninth. It was a bad loss to a bad team, but Cleveland may have had an even worse night.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Aaron Slegers: 13 Game Score, 1.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K, 0 BB, 65.9% strikes Bullpen: 7.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 4 BB Lineup: 2-for-7 w/RISP, 6 LOB WPA of 0.1 or higher: None WPA of -0.1 or lower: Slegers -.381 Download attachment: WinEx710.png Logan Morrison made one of the worst baseball plays you’ll see all year. Down 5-1 in the bottom of the second inning, he hit what appeared to be a leadoff double. Nice, right? Well, LoMo decided he’d try to stretch it into a triple and was thrown out. You just can’t do that. A rookie wouldn’t get a free pass for that kind of a mental error, let alone a veteran like Morrison. You’re down 5-1, there are no outs … honestly, dude what are you doing? Something has to be wrong with Addison Reed. He gave up three runs on three hits; a single, a triple and a home run. Since the start of June, Reed has surrendered 13 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings pitched. Reed’s average velocity on his four-seamer has been holding pretty steady over the past few years. He was right around 93 mph from 2014-2017, but he started out this season sitting more like 92 mph and things have continued to dip. Tonight, he topped out at 91.6 mph per Baseball Savant, but averaged 90.3 mph. Maybe Morrison and Reed need to go down to Single A too. On the plus side, Taylor Rogers was great in an extended appearance. He threw a season-high 37 pitches over 2 1/3 no-hit innings. He struck out two and walked one. Also, Brian Dozier hit his 14th home run. Not a great night for the Twins, but things aren’t exactly going swimmingly for Cleveland either. The led 4-0 heading into the ninth inning of their game tonight. Closer Cody Allen gave up three runs, and then a miscommunication played a part in the Reds scoring four more runs en route to victory. From Cleveland’s reporter from The Athletic: Uff da. That bullpen is a nightmare. Gotta love the AL Central. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen710.png AL Central Standings CLE 49-41 MIN 40-49 (-8.5) DET 40-54 (-11) CHW 30-61 (19.5) KC 26-65 (-23.5) Next Three Games Wed vs. KC, 12:10 pm CT: Lance Lynn vs. Burch Smith Thu vs. TB, 7:10 pm CT: TBD Fri vs. TB, 7:10 pm CT: TBD Last Three Games MIN 3, KC 1: Minnesota’s All-Star Shines MIN 10, BAL 1: Twins Pick Up First Sweep of 2018 MIN 5, BAL 4: More Baltimore, Please Click here to view the article

Here's where the lines really started to blur for me. I felt like not a ton differentiated my personal No. 15 guy from my No. 7 guy in the system.

I am always ready to spend somebody else's money But seriously, the Twins have so little on the books and this team should continue to be carried by young, cost-controlled players for the next few seasons, so overpaying for a few players via free agency shouldn't be an issue. Plus, free agency was really strange this past season. Maybe we're seeing prices go down, who knows.

OK, I got a chance to glance through the previous comments. I think the problem is a lot of people are thinking the options are either you sell the farm for Realmuto or you're stuck with Castro/Garver/Wilson. The Twins should have plenty of payroll room to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal or a Wilson Ramos this offseason. Are they as good as Realmuto? No, but they also wouldn't cost you any prospects. Plus, here are their numbers over the past two seasons combined: Realmuto .291/.341/.484, .352 wOBA, 120 wRC+ Grandal .246/.320/.456, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+ Ramos .278/.319/.461, .331 wOBA, 111 wRC+ And according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average, Grandal is the best defensive catcher in baseball this season at +10.9. Realmuto is at +2.2 and Ramos right at average, 0.0.

In the third round ... out of high school. And Mookie Betts was drafted in the fifth round, does that mean DaShawn Keirsey Jr. is going to be better then him? C'mon man, I answered your question. Do you really view Jeffers as a typical second-round pick?

Comparing Realmuto with Garver is incredibly unfair at this point, but yes, I would expect that Mitch is at his physical peak right now. I would expect Garver to improve as he gains experience at the big league level, but not by leaps and bounds. I wrote about how I thought the Twins mishandled Garver almost two years ago, and I think we're seeing some of the problems that's created/how his prime has been wasted to some degree.

There are obviously plenty of exceptions, but I'd typically suspect at 27 a player is at his physical peak, especially a catcher. Plus, as we know all too well, any catcher is one bad hit away from becoming not a catcher. Now that doesn't mean you don't invest resources into acquiring a backstop, you still need somebody there, but I think it does change who/what you're willing to give up to acquire one ... unless you think he's the piece that wins you a World Series. Then you do whatever it takes.

Didn't get a chance to read everyone else's comments, but here's my $0.02: You don't trade for anybody at their peak value. Well, unless you think you've got a legit shot to win a World Series. The Twins need to find the NEXT Realmuto. Easier said than done, I know, but that should be their goal.

This is an honest question: Do you really view Jeffers as a typical second-round pick? Jeffers got the third-lowest bonus among all second rounders this year. He only got $200K more than Keirsey and Sands ($800K vs. $600K). Yes, Jeffers hit a ton in college, but that was in the CAA. Yes, he's off to a good start as a pro, but the power hasn't really shown up yet. He's only got four doubles among his 23 hits. But to answer your question, I guess I'd have to say he was a bad pick in terms of talent vs. round, but strategy wise he was a good pick because he allowed the Twins the flexibility to be able to sign some of the guys who were taken after him. I like Jeffers, he's intriguing. But I think my sort of default value I'd put on him would be more like a third-round pick than a second rounder.

This is Seth's really, really nice way of saying "I totally agree with you, but these other two bozos don't have a clue what they're doing."

Change happens slowly when it comes to a team’s minor league system. Of the previous 20 players unveiled in our midseason prospect list up to this point, 13 were brought into the organization prior to Derek Falvey taking over as Chief Baseball Officer of the Twins. This next sample of five prospects includes a couple of holdovers from the previous regime, but also features a trio of players that have been added to the organization within the last seven months. Even more interesting, each of those three newcomers was acquired via a different avenue: One via trade, one through the draft and the other as (technically) an international free agent.20. Luis Arraez – 2B Age: 21 ETA: 2020 2018 Stats (AA/A+): .321/.371/.416 (.786), 14 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 28 K, 19 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 19 | Tom: 19 | Cody: 23 Arraez tore his ACL in just his fourth game of 2017 and was forced to miss the entire rest of the season. He came out of the gates this season struggling badly, hitting .205/.266/.248 (.514) over his first 32 games. With the turn of the calendar from May to June, Luis appeared to have worked off the rust and so began an incredible run. From the start of June to when he was promoted to Chattanooga on the Fourth of July, Arraez hit .441/.484/.604 (1.087) over a span of 28 games. That streak helped earn him the title of Twins Daily’s Minor League Hitter Of The Month for June. Arraez is the youngest player to appear for the Lookouts so far this season. 19. Jacob Pearson – LF Age: 20 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A): .298/.373/.444 (.816), 7 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 28 K, 18 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 22 | Tom: 27 | Cody: 11 The Twins traded for Pearson over the winter, sending international bonus pool slot money over to the Angels. His batting line for the Kernels has been impressive (see above), but what’s particularly attractive about his offensive skill set is the fact that he’s posted a walk rate in the double digits (10.7 percent) while maintaining a strikeout rate under 17 percent (16.6, to be exact). To put that into perspective, only seven other Midwest League hitters can boast that same accomplishment of the 162 who have at least 150 plate appearances this season. Defensively, Pearson has played 78.6 percent of his games as a professional in left field with the rest of the time coming in center. 18. Ryan Jeffers – C Age: 21 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (Rk): .361/.480/.426 (.906), 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 11 K, 9 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 15 | Tom: 20 | Cody: 19 The Twins selected Jeffers with the No. 59 overall pick in this year’s draft after he hit .323/.445/.620 (1.065) with more walks (85) than strikeouts (78) in his three years at UNC Wilmington. Listed at 6-for-4 and 228 pounds, Jeffers is a big, powerful guy. Only time will tell if he sticks behind the plate, but the Twins are clearly believers. Even if he eventually moves to another position, it’s possible he has enough bat to play just about anywhere. In his first 75 plate appearances as a pro, Jeffers has reached safely 36 times (22 hits, nine walks and five HBPs). He’s made six starts at catcher and another 11 at DH, as the E-Twins are also trying to get catching reps in for Andy Cosgrove and Trevor Casanova. 17. Lewin Diaz – 1B Age: 21 ETA: 2020 2018 Stats (A+): .240/.271/.376 (.647), 11 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 43 K, 8 BB 2018 Ranking: 13 | 2017 Ranking: 10 Seth: 23 | Tom: 16 | Cody: 12 There’s no way around it, Diaz is having a rough go of things in 2018. It appears the Florida State League All-Star break came at the perfect time, however, as Diaz has hit .333/.380/.470 (.850) in 17 games since. The FSL can be a brutal place for a power hitter, and adjusting to a league that suppresses offense can be a mental hurdle, as well. Diaz has continued to put the ball in play a lot, but he’s having a much harder time finding hits. After posting a .322 BABIP last season in Cedar Rapids, that number has dropped all the way down to .268 this season. Diaz’s prospect stock is on the decline, but there are still some national media outlets that list him inside the system’s top 10. 16. Yunior Severino – 2B Age: 18 ETA: 2022 2018 Stats (Rk): .333/.340/.444 (.785), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 10 K, 1 BB 2018 Ranking: 18 | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 16 | Tom: 17 | Cody: 17 Yet another relative newcomer to the organization, Severino was signed as a free agent for $2.5 million this December after the Braves were forced to forfeit him as a penalty for violating international signing rules. To put that into some perspective, the Twins recently signed this year’s first-round pick Trevor Larnach for $2.55 million. Yunior is the youngest player to appear for Elizabethton this season, so as you could expect, he’s still very raw. In 69 games as a professional, Severino has hit .280/.344/.424 (.769) with a 25.8 K% and 8.4 BB%. He’s been a second baseman so far, but how he fills out physically could ultimately determine his future position. If he continues to get bigger and stronger, he’ll likely have enough arm for third base. What are your thoughts on the latest set of rankings? Who’s ranked too high? Who’s ranked too low? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Make sure to check back tomorrow for Nos. 11-15. Haven’t been flowing along? Well here’s how we’ve ranked the prospects so far: 40. Aaron Whitefield, 39. Jaylin Davis, 38. Ricky De La Torre, 37. Lachlan Wells, 36. Aaron Slegers 35. Tyler Watson, 34. DaShawn Keirsey Jr., 33. Gabriel Moya, 32. Andrew Bechtold, 31. Jordan Balazovic 30. John Curtiss, 29. Zack Granite, 28. Jake Cave, 27. Tyler Wells, 26. Griffin Jax 25. Tyler Jay, 24. Felix Jorge, 23. Kohl Stewart, 22. Landon Leach, 21. Jose Miranda For anyone wondering, these rankings were compiled prior to the official announcement that the Twins had singed 16-year-old Venezuelan Misael Urbina to a $2.75 million bonus, so he is not included in the rankings. Click here to view the article