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Everything posted by Tom Froemming
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First off, here was the basic methodology: A=Excellent, loved the trade, better than I would've guessed. B=Very solid, liked it, a strong return. C=Meh, it's OK, but not real impressive. D=Substandard, should have done better. F=Bad trade, terrible, definitely not a deal I would've made. And I didn't want to fool around with +/- grades, just those five options. What were your expectations there? Should they have, for instance, simply kept Dozier? I thought they should have done better in that trade, but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm saying they should have kept Dozier. It's tough to answer this without more information. Did they think there was a less than 50% chance they could trade him this month? Was there no way they were going to extend him a qualifying offer? Then, no, you definitely do not keep Dozier. Would keeping him him around any longer create issues in the clubhouse? Then, no, you definitely don't keep Dozier. The Twins did not save any money or add anything of particular value in my mind to the system. Raley is putting up numbers in Double A, but corner guys are a dime a dozen. Logan Morrison hit 38 home runs in the big leagues last season and could barely find a job. Devin Smeltzer is also in Double A and could develop into a lefty specialist, but the Twins landed Zack Duke for $2.15 million this offseason. I'm not saying Raley or Smeltzer are never going to make it or they don't have any value, but I am saying guys of their type of profile are not difficult to find. Every team has them, every team is willing to part with them. As far as guys currently in the Twins' system, that duo kinda reminds me of slightly better versions of Zander Wiel and Bryan Sammons. If that's the deal for Dozier, fine, but then there should be no reason you also need to take on salary relief in the form of Forsythe. If the only options are Dozier leaves at the end of the season or you make this deal, of course you pull the trigger. But those shouldn't have been the only options. ... it's their job to ship out pretty much everyone on a 1 year deal for value ... Everyone else pretty much needed to go ... Even when you're selling, you still need to make sure you're going to get good value. I think a big problem was the minute they traded Escobar the Twins' leverage in any trade discussions decreased. I think it would have made a lot more sense to trade Dozier first, since he was the less-valued asset. Escobar was going to be a really attractive piece to a lot of teams whether or not they knew for sure the Twins were selling. So again, this is my bottom line, end of the day feeling about the deadline as a whole: Not exactly Ivy League material, but in my eyes they get a solid passing grade for what was a difficult trade deadline to navigate for them.
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Minor league park factors/league hitting environments is a kind of murky subject, but it seems like it's generally accepted that the Texas League, where Raley was, is a good place to hit. Rooker has an .865 OPS and has homered every 22 PAs in a league where the averages are .710 and 47.2, respectively. Raley had an .822 OPS and went deep every 25.6 PAs in a league where the averages were .743 and 42.4. Still, you're absolutely right, their overall numbers aren't all that different from each other. One big difference is Rooker has been getting better, and has a .939 OPS over the last 90 days, while Raley has cooled off, posting an .801 OPS over the last 90 days. In that same time frame, Rooker has a 15.7 K-BB% (26.2-10.5) while Raley is at 18.9 (23.8-4.9). Was the Texas League starting to figure out Raley? Another huge difference is their batted-ball profile. Rooker's GB:FB ratio is 0.79 and Raley's is 1.44. This very well could have been a reason the Twins targeted Raley, however, as maybe they think a slight adjustment in his swing could help unleash even more power. Defensively, I think Raley is as likely to play center field as Rooker is, though it's much more likely Raley will be a serviceable corner outfielder.
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Hey, he can still be a favorite. Some of my favorite guys in the Twins system are players who aren't even in my own personal top 50 prospects list. That's the fun part of following the system really closely, you get a bunch more guys to root for. There's a lot to like about this guy still. First off: Ernie. Not sure I even have to go on. While he was taken with the 562nd overall pick, he did get a $100,000 signing bonus from Arizona. It's not very common college guys outside of the top 10 rounds get that kind of money, so Arizona must have seen something they really liked and it's possible other teams liked him, but weren't confident they could get him to sign for less. He was a junior, so he could have elected to go back to school.
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Pretty cool to see Amsterdam native Donny Breek get a mention. Lots more info on him here.
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I'm not a big fan of their rankings, some of those are real eyebrow raisers. I love Blankenhorn, but him over Rooker? Sands, Rijo, Moya and Seltzer over Thorpe? Anyway, they must be certain Alcala ends up in the bullpen. The new MLB Pipeline org rankings have Alcala 11th, Celestino 14th, Maciel 17th, Raley 19th and Duran 23rd. So everybody's got these guys sorted out a little differently.
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Not me. If they cut him today that doesn't change my grade at all, they still have to pay him that money. The only thing that might change my evaluation is if they were able to deal Forsythe this month, which is highly unlikely. Speaking of which, if anybody is curious about how waiver trades work, I wrote a primer for MLB Daily Dish back in 2012 that I believe is still accurate today. One of the things I've always found interesting is that any player not on the 40-man roster can still be dealt with no restrictions this month.
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Thank you for your input, Dean Stohs. I'm a tougher grader than you are, but I don't think our end conclusions are too far off at all. Yes. The issue is they're going to have to pay Forsythe something like $3 million no matter what. He had an 81 OPS+ in 650 PAs with the Dodgers. Yuck. Again, his inclusion in that deal lowered its value. Part of the benefit of dealing Dozier should have been salary relief. Yes! I was hoping you'd see this. I saw your comment and thought "that's a damn good idea" but I've been in and out of so many pages on here lately I forgot who suggested it. Thank you.
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What a whirlwind of a week it’s been. Now that the dust has settled on the trade deadline, let’s take a look at which affiliate each of these new pieces is headed to, try to rank the new prospects and hand out individual grades for each of the five deals Derek Falvey & Co. made.All right, first thing’s first, here’s where all the players the Twins acquired are headed: Minnesota: Logan Forsythe Rochester: Chase De Jong, Tyler Austin. Chattanooga: Devin Smeltzer, Luke Raley, Jorge Alcala (on the DL) Fort Myers: Ryan Costello, Ernie De La Trinidad Cedar Rapids: Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel Elizabethton: Luis Rijo, Gilberto Celestino So who are the best prospects the Twins acquired? Well 10 of the 12 guys the Twins added (everyone but Forsythe and Austin) still qualify for prospect status. I’m still getting up to speed on a lot of these guys, especially the ones acquired this week, so I’ll defer to another source. Baseball America published a fun list today. They ranked all the prospects dealt at the deadline, and the order they had the new guys in made a lot of sense to me. -Jorge Alcala -Gilberto Celestino -Jhoan Duran -Luke Raley -Chase De Jong -Luis Rijo -Devin Smeltzer -Gabriel Maciel -Ryan Costello -Ernie De La Trinidad Personally, I’d strongly consider putting Celestino on top. I also might put Rijo and Maciel above De Jong. Anyway, BA has capsules written up on those top three guys, and it’s just kind of interesting to see where they have them listed among all the prospects on the move. But, I’m going to make you click the link to go check out the rest of that stuff if you’re interested. All right, so let’s take a look at each trade individually. On each of these, I’m going to provide the link to the Twins Daily article published when the deals broke and also link to the Baseball Prospectus Transaction Analysis piece for each. Friend of the site Aaron Gleeman and the rest of the staff at B-Pro did an excellent job at breaking down each piece of each of these trades, so again, I’ll tip my cap to another outlet and encourage you to check those out. The grades though, those will be all me. Any grade disputes must be taken up with the Dean Friday, July 27 Twins give: Eduardo Escobar Twins get: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: B Escobar was my favorite Twins player, but it just made too much sense to trade him away. It’s encouraging to hear the Twins approached him about an extension prior to shipping him off, and here’s hoping they engage with his camp again once he becomes a free agent. Eduardo was having a career year and will hit free agency at the end of the season, so it was difficult to envision the Twins netting a huge haul. I think Duran is a nice add, and he already made a great first impression, throwing seven no-hit innings in his Cedar Rapids debut. It sounds to me like he has a better chance at reaching the majors as a starter than Alcala does, though he doesn’t have quite as high of a ceiling. Maciel will skyrocket up prospect lists if he ever develops power. He’s a switch hitter who’s billed as a legit center fielder with elite speed, so even if the power never arrives he could be a fourth outfielder. De La Trinidad was a college draftee taken in the 19th round last year. His upside seems limited, but hitters hit. He’s got a career .874 OPS so far in the minors, so that at least makes him an intriguing throw-in. Friday, July 27 Twins give: Ryan Pressly Twins get: RHP Jorge Alcala, OF Gilberto Celestino Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: A I love this deal. Pressly was the only player they moved who was going to still be under team control next season, but in parting with him, they acquired what I consider to be the two most valuable pieces among the dozen players that were acquired. Yes, Alcala was immediately placed on the DL with a right trap strain, but I think it’s a good sign that happened before he threw a single pitch in the Twins’ org. That suggests two things to me: 1) The Twins’ staff was able to uncover something in Alcala’s medicals and is getting out in front of this issue, and 2) I’d be willing to bet they used that information to leverage this deal with Houston. Celestino signed out of the Dominican Republic for a big bonus and he's living up to that billing so far. Not many guys put up the kind of numbers he was in the New York Penn League. He was fourth in batting average, sixth in OBP, seventh in slugging and was 14-for-14 on stolen base attempts in the NYPL. Pressly throws absolute filth and was having a strong season, but bullpen arms are so unpredictable and I feel like there are a lot of different ways the Twins could replace a guy like Pressly. Monday, July 30 Twins give: Zach Duke Twins get: RHP Chase De Jong, 1B/3B Ryan Costello Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: C To Twins fans, Duke may not seem like much of a prize, but he is among the best left-handed specialists in baseball. Duke has faced 425 left-handed hitters since the start of the 2014 season, and southpaws have hit just .214/.286/.316 off him. Since he was on an expiring contract, Duke was never going to fetch anything similar to the Pressly haul, and I’m not real impressed with what the Twins netted from Seattle. De Jong might be an interesting candidate to stick in the bullpen and see what happens, but it’s very difficult to see him ever working his way into the picture here as a starter. Maybe Costello is going to make me eat my words someday, but he was a 31st-round pick last year. Despite that underwhelming pedigree, he certainly deserves respect for putting up some of the better power numbers in the Midwest League this season. Again, hitters hit. Monday, July 30 Twins give: Lance Lynn Twins get: Tyler Austin, Luis Rijo Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: A I love this deal too, but for very different reasons than the Pressly trade. I just didn’t think Lynn had this kind of value. He fits the profile of exactly the type of pitcher a contending team should be looking to replace. Don’t get me wrong, he did really turn things around from May forward, but in my opinion he’s a second-division big league pitcher even at his best. Maybe the Yankees are onto something in using him in long relief, I don’t know. It’s worth noting that the Twins are paying half of Lynn’s salary, but this is still a really good return in my eyes. Tyler Austin could be a platoon 1B/RF/DH right now. The contact issues are a concern, but he crushes lefties and Target Field has been a pretty kind environment for right-handed power hitters. Honestly, if this was Lynn for Luis Rijo straight up I would have been impressed. Rijo has an insane 8.36 K:BB ratio in 125 ⅓ innings over his minor league career. He also tops out at 93 mph, so it’s not like it’s all just smoke and mirrors. And on top of all that, Lynn’s departure from the team opened up a spot for Adalberto Mejia to get a much-deserved chance in the rotation. Win, win, win, it’s looking all good here to me. Tuesday, July 31 Twins give: Brian Dozier Twins get: 2B Logan Forsythe, OF/1B Luke Raley, LHP Devin Smeltzer Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: D I’m certain this was the best deal the Twins could get on July 31, less than an hour before the deadline. What I’m not certain of is if that was the best time to deal him. You never know how these things work out, and both Ian Kinsler and Jonathan Schoop entering the trade market late had to have complicated things, but I suspect the Twins could have gotten a better package if they had made the deal earlier, or may have even been able to find a better waiver trade partner this month. Of course, there was always the option to keep Dozier and extend a qualifying offer to him. Maybe he would have accepted, but I’m of the mind that there’s really no such thing as a bad one-year deal. Why did I think this was the Twins’ worst trade? Mainly because of who they were forced to take back. Logan Forsythe, the only major leaguer the Twins acquired in all these deals, actually has extreme negative trade value. This seems to defy logic, but the business of baseball is funny. His inclusion basically made this deal cash neutral. There was probably never going to be a deal with the Dodgers that didn’t have to include Forsythe, since they’re trying to avoid luxury tax penalties, but that’s exactly why you don’t make a deal with them in the first place. I typically don’t care much what happens to the Pohlad’s money (did you see how I just suggested they give Dozier $18 million?), but you’ve still got to acknowledge that money is an asset to a baseball team. If you get rid of Dozier, I think you need to find a way to get rid of that money too. If Forsythe’s not in this trade, I give it at least a C, maybe even a B. Heck, if I just look at this deal in a vacuum, which is what I originally did yesterday, I might give it a C. But when you zoom out and look at the big picture of what happened across baseball leading up to and on deadline day, it definitely feels like the Twins may have hurt their odds at maximizing a return. Tough thing for me to say from the outside looking in, but that’s how I feel. Raley is putting up really good numbers in Double A, but he’s already 24 and it’s just really hard to break into the bigs as a corner outfield/first base type. On the plus side, Raley also sounds like the type of guy in terms of makeup who goes out and proves idiots like me wrong, so I’m excited to see how this plays out. Smeltzer is left-handed, that’s always a plus. He’s also relatively close to the majors (he’s spent all year in Double A) and his strikeout numbers saw a boost when he recently shifted to the bullpen. However, it sounds like he has a fairly straight, fairly slow fastball, so … All right, so there’s my report card. The front office comes away with a 2.8 GPA. Not exactly Ivy League material, but in my eyes they get a solid passing grade for what was a difficult trade deadline to navigate for them. Maybe they also deserve some extra credit for the non-move they made by keeping Kyle Gibson. So now it’s your turn, how would you grade the Twins’ trade deadline? 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All right, first thing’s first, here’s where all the players the Twins acquired are headed: Minnesota: Logan Forsythe Rochester: Chase De Jong, Tyler Austin. Chattanooga: Devin Smeltzer, Luke Raley, Jorge Alcala (on the DL) Fort Myers: Ryan Costello, Ernie De La Trinidad Cedar Rapids: Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel Elizabethton: Luis Rijo, Gilberto Celestino So who are the best prospects the Twins acquired? Well 10 of the 12 guys the Twins added (everyone but Forsythe and Austin) still qualify for prospect status. I’m still getting up to speed on a lot of these guys, especially the ones acquired this week, so I’ll defer to another source. Baseball America published a fun list today. They ranked all the prospects dealt at the deadline, and the order they had the new guys in made a lot of sense to me. -Jorge Alcala -Gilberto Celestino -Jhoan Duran -Luke Raley -Chase De Jong -Luis Rijo -Devin Smeltzer -Gabriel Maciel -Ryan Costello -Ernie De La Trinidad Personally, I’d strongly consider putting Celestino on top. I also might put Rijo and Maciel above De Jong. Anyway, BA has capsules written up on those top three guys, and it’s just kind of interesting to see where they have them listed among all the prospects on the move. But, I’m going to make you click the link to go check out the rest of that stuff if you’re interested. All right, so let’s take a look at each trade individually. On each of these, I’m going to provide the link to the Twins Daily article published when the deals broke and also link to the Baseball Prospectus Transaction Analysis piece for each. Friend of the site Aaron Gleeman and the rest of the staff at B-Pro did an excellent job at breaking down each piece of each of these trades, so again, I’ll tip my cap to another outlet and encourage you to check those out. The grades though, those will be all me. Any grade disputes must be taken up with the Dean Friday, July 27 Twins give: Eduardo Escobar Twins get: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: B Escobar was my favorite Twins player, but it just made too much sense to trade him away. It’s encouraging to hear the Twins approached him about an extension prior to shipping him off, and here’s hoping they engage with his camp again once he becomes a free agent. Eduardo was having a career year and will hit free agency at the end of the season, so it was difficult to envision the Twins netting a huge haul. I think Duran is a nice add, and he already made a great first impression, throwing seven no-hit innings in his Cedar Rapids debut. It sounds to me like he has a better chance at reaching the majors as a starter than Alcala does, though he doesn’t have quite as high of a ceiling. Maciel will skyrocket up prospect lists if he ever develops power. He’s a switch hitter who’s billed as a legit center fielder with elite speed, so even if the power never arrives he could be a fourth outfielder. De La Trinidad was a college draftee taken in the 19th round last year. His upside seems limited, but hitters hit. He’s got a career .874 OPS so far in the minors, so that at least makes him an intriguing throw-in. Friday, July 27 Twins give: Ryan Pressly Twins get: RHP Jorge Alcala, OF Gilberto Celestino Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: A I love this deal. Pressly was the only player they moved who was going to still be under team control next season, but in parting with him, they acquired what I consider to be the two most valuable pieces among the dozen players that were acquired. Yes, Alcala was immediately placed on the DL with a right trap strain, but I think it’s a good sign that happened before he threw a single pitch in the Twins’ org. That suggests two things to me: 1) The Twins’ staff was able to uncover something in Alcala’s medicals and is getting out in front of this issue, and 2) I’d be willing to bet they used that information to leverage this deal with Houston. Celestino signed out of the Dominican Republic for a big bonus and he's living up to that billing so far. Not many guys put up the kind of numbers he was in the New York Penn League. He was fourth in batting average, sixth in OBP, seventh in slugging and was 14-for-14 on stolen base attempts in the NYPL. Pressly throws absolute filth and was having a strong season, but bullpen arms are so unpredictable and I feel like there are a lot of different ways the Twins could replace a guy like Pressly. Monday, July 30 Twins give: Zach Duke Twins get: RHP Chase De Jong, 1B/3B Ryan Costello Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: C To Twins fans, Duke may not seem like much of a prize, but he is among the best left-handed specialists in baseball. Duke has faced 425 left-handed hitters since the start of the 2014 season, and southpaws have hit just .214/.286/.316 off him. Since he was on an expiring contract, Duke was never going to fetch anything similar to the Pressly haul, and I’m not real impressed with what the Twins netted from Seattle. De Jong might be an interesting candidate to stick in the bullpen and see what happens, but it’s very difficult to see him ever working his way into the picture here as a starter. Maybe Costello is going to make me eat my words someday, but he was a 31st-round pick last year. Despite that underwhelming pedigree, he certainly deserves respect for putting up some of the better power numbers in the Midwest League this season. Again, hitters hit. Monday, July 30 Twins give: Lance Lynn Twins get: Tyler Austin, Luis Rijo Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: A I love this deal too, but for very different reasons than the Pressly trade. I just didn’t think Lynn had this kind of value. He fits the profile of exactly the type of pitcher a contending team should be looking to replace. Don’t get me wrong, he did really turn things around from May forward, but in my opinion he’s a second-division big league pitcher even at his best. Maybe the Yankees are onto something in using him in long relief, I don’t know. It’s worth noting that the Twins are paying half of Lynn’s salary, but this is still a really good return in my eyes. Tyler Austin could be a platoon 1B/RF/DH right now. The contact issues are a concern, but he crushes lefties and Target Field has been a pretty kind environment for right-handed power hitters. Honestly, if this was Lynn for Luis Rijo straight up I would have been impressed. Rijo has an insane 8.36 K:BB ratio in 125 ⅓ innings over his minor league career. He also tops out at 93 mph, so it’s not like it’s all just smoke and mirrors. And on top of all that, Lynn’s departure from the team opened up a spot for Adalberto Mejia to get a much-deserved chance in the rotation. Win, win, win, it’s looking all good here to me. Tuesday, July 31 Twins give: Brian Dozier Twins get: 2B Logan Forsythe, OF/1B Luke Raley, LHP Devin Smeltzer Additional info: Twins Daily | Baseball Prospectus Tom’s grade: D I’m certain this was the best deal the Twins could get on July 31, less than an hour before the deadline. What I’m not certain of is if that was the best time to deal him. You never know how these things work out, and both Ian Kinsler and Jonathan Schoop entering the trade market late had to have complicated things, but I suspect the Twins could have gotten a better package if they had made the deal earlier, or may have even been able to find a better waiver trade partner this month. Of course, there was always the option to keep Dozier and extend a qualifying offer to him. Maybe he would have accepted, but I’m of the mind that there’s really no such thing as a bad one-year deal. Why did I think this was the Twins’ worst trade? Mainly because of who they were forced to take back. Logan Forsythe, the only major leaguer the Twins acquired in all these deals, actually has extreme negative trade value. This seems to defy logic, but the business of baseball is funny. His inclusion basically made this deal cash neutral. There was probably never going to be a deal with the Dodgers that didn’t have to include Forsythe, since they’re trying to avoid luxury tax penalties, but that’s exactly why you don’t make a deal with them in the first place. I typically don’t care much what happens to the Pohlad’s money (did you see how I just suggested they give Dozier $18 million?), but you’ve still got to acknowledge that money is an asset to a baseball team. If you get rid of Dozier, I think you need to find a way to get rid of that money too. If Forsythe’s not in this trade, I give it at least a C, maybe even a B. Heck, if I just look at this deal in a vacuum, which is what I originally did yesterday, I might give it a C. But when you zoom out and look at the big picture of what happened across baseball leading up to and on deadline day, it definitely feels like the Twins may have hurt their odds at maximizing a return. Tough thing for me to say from the outside looking in, but that’s how I feel. Raley is putting up really good numbers in Double A, but he’s already 24 and it’s just really hard to break into the bigs as a corner outfield/first base type. On the plus side, Raley also sounds like the type of guy in terms of makeup who goes out and proves idiots like me wrong, so I’m excited to see how this plays out. Smeltzer is left-handed, that’s always a plus. He’s also relatively close to the majors (he’s spent all year in Double A) and his strikeout numbers saw a boost when he recently shifted to the bullpen. However, it sounds like he has a fairly straight, fairly slow fastball, so … All right, so there’s my report card. The front office comes away with a 2.8 GPA. Not exactly Ivy League material, but in my eyes they get a solid passing grade for what was a difficult trade deadline to navigate for them. Maybe they also deserve some extra credit for the non-move they made by keeping Kyle Gibson. So now it’s your turn, how would you grade the Twins’ trade deadline?
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Let's just say weekday afternoons are road games for me. I'm definitely not saying I would ever write about the Twins at my day job. Nope, not me ... would never do it. Company man, am I. But it is more difficult for me to do certain things under these circumstances. I thought about plugging it in now, but they're off tomorrow anyway so I got working on a trade deadline roundup/ranking the new prospects/grading each deal article instead. Should have that up tonight.
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An often-repeated take on the site this season has been that Cleveland isn’t that great of a team. While that may be true, they do have some special players. Their stars are good enough to beat you almost on their own. One day after Jose Ramirez showcased his skills with the bat, Carlos Carrasco dominated the Twins on the mound. He struck out 10 batters over 7 1/3 scoreless innings, holding the Twins to five hits in the process.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Adalberto Mejia: 64 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, 60.8% strikes Multi-Hit Games: Jorge Polanco (2-for-4) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Mejia .291 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Garver -.133, Rosario -.137, Morrison -.139, Forsythe -.246 Download attachment: chart.png Mike Berardino reported that new Twin Logan Forsythe was working on one hour of sleep. Sounds like a great choice as a pinch hitter in the highest-leverage situation of the game today, huh? With the Twins trailing 1-0 in the eighth, Robbie Grossman drew a 10-pitch walk to put runners at first and second with one out. Forsythe took two strikes, then hit the third pitch from Brad Hand 100.3 mph. Unfortunately, it was a bullet on the ground to Francisco Lindor, who started an inning-ending double play. The only real scoring chance the Twins had other than that inning was when Joe Mauer hit a two-out triple in the sixth. Cleveland’s first run came on a well-executed play on the bases. With runners at the corners and one out in the sixth, Ramirez broke for second. Mitch Garver fired down to get him out, thanks to an impressive tag by Ehire Adrianza, but Rajai Davis took off for home on the throw and beat the relay back to Garver. Cleveland’s second run came in large part due to an error on Jorge Polanco. AL Central Standings CLE 59-48 MIN 49-58 (-10) DET 47-62 (-13) CHW 37-69 (-21.5) KC 33-73 (-25.5) Next Three Games Thu: Off Fri vs. KC, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Heath Fillmyer Sat vs. KC, 6:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Burch Smith Sun vs. KC, 1:10 pm CT: Ervin Santana vs. TBD Last Three Games CLE 6, MIN 2: Deadline Day Ends in Defeat MIN 5, CLE 4: Awesome Sauce! BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Adalberto Mejia: 64 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, 60.8% strikes Multi-Hit Games: Jorge Polanco (2-for-4) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Mejia .291 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Garver -.133, Rosario -.137, Morrison -.139, Forsythe -.246 Mike Berardino reported that new Twin Logan Forsythe was working on one hour of sleep. Sounds like a great choice as a pinch hitter in the highest-leverage situation of the game today, huh? With the Twins trailing 1-0 in the eighth, Robbie Grossman drew a 10-pitch walk to put runners at first and second with one out. Forsythe took two strikes, then hit the third pitch from Brad Hand 100.3 mph. Unfortunately, it was a bullet on the ground to Francisco Lindor, who started an inning-ending double play. The only real scoring chance the Twins had other than that inning was when Joe Mauer hit a two-out triple in the sixth. Cleveland’s first run came on a well-executed play on the bases. With runners at the corners and one out in the sixth, Ramirez broke for second. Mitch Garver fired down to get him out, thanks to an impressive tag by Ehire Adrianza, but Rajai Davis took off for home on the throw and beat the relay back to Garver. Cleveland’s second run came in large part due to an error on Jorge Polanco. AL Central Standings CLE 59-48 MIN 49-58 (-10) DET 47-62 (-13) CHW 37-69 (-21.5) KC 33-73 (-25.5) Next Three Games Thu: Off Fri vs. KC, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Heath Fillmyer Sat vs. KC, 6:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Burch Smith Sun vs. KC, 1:10 pm CT: Ervin Santana vs. TBD Last Three Games CLE 6, MIN 2: Deadline Day Ends in Defeat MIN 5, CLE 4: Awesome Sauce! BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues
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It was not a great month for the Red Wings' bullpen. Here are the July numbers with Rochester: May: 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 9.1 IP Reed: 2.03 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 2.20 K:BB in 13.1 IP Baxendale: 3.45 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 3.50 K:BB in 15.2 IP Anderson: 5.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 5.50 K:BB in 9.0 IP Busenitz: 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.50 K:BB in 6.2 IP Duffey: 5.63 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2.20 K:BB in 8.0 IP Curtiss: 5.79 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 0.89 K:BB in 9.1 IP Bard: 9.82 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 7.1 IP
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The band-aid is totally ripped off now. Once Eduardo Escobar got dealt, the only question became just how many Twins players would be on the move between then and the start of tonight’s game. Clubhouse mainstay Brian Dozier was the final domino to fall just hours before the first pitch tonight. What had to have been a tough day on the team ended in a 6-2 defeat at the hands of Cleveland. Tomorrow is a new day.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Kyle Gibson: 53 Game Score, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 58.2% strikes Home Runs: Logan Morrison (14) Multi-Hit Games: Max Kepler (2-for-4, 2B) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Morrison .107 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.127, Mauer -.133, Belisle -.202 Download attachment: WinChart731.png We’ll get back to the game in just a sec, but I have something more important to address first. Earlier today, Nick Nelson wrote a valuable piece as it relates to what to watch for moving forward. He noted seven particularly critical Twins players, but I’ve got something else I wanted to pass along that’s worth watching: I think Kyle Gibson may be growing a mustache (maybe). I dunno, you tell me … Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen731.png AL Central Standings CLE 58-48 MIN 49-57 (-9) DET 46-62 (-13) CHW 37-68 (-20.5) KC 32-73 (-25.5) Next Three Games Wed vs. CLE, 12:10 pm CT: Adalberto Mejia vs. Carlos Carrasco Thu: Off Fri at KC, 7:10 pm CT: TBD Sat at KC, 6:10 pm CTL TBD Last Three Games MIN 5, CLE 4: Awesome Sauce! BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Kyle Gibson: 53 Game Score, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 58.2% strikes Home Runs: Logan Morrison (14) Multi-Hit Games: Max Kepler (2-for-4, 2B) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Morrison .107 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.127, Mauer -.133, Belisle -.202 We’ll get back to the game in just a sec, but I have something more important to address first. Earlier today, Nick Nelson wrote a valuable piece as it relates to what to watch for moving forward. He noted seven particularly critical Twins players, but I’ve got something else I wanted to pass along that’s worth watching: I think Kyle Gibson may be growing a mustache (maybe). I dunno, you tell me … https://twitter.com/BaseballByTom/status/1024479108556877824 OK, back to the action. Gibson exited this game with the Twins tailing 3-2 after six innings. In came Matt Belisle. Gulp. Of the six batters Belisle faced, three of them got hits and another was intentionally walked. He gave up two earned runs on three hits and got two outs. Belisle has now surrendered 16 earned runs in 17 ⅔ innings with the Twins. On the positive side, there were a couple of noteworthy comebacks out of the bullpen. Addison Reed made his first appearance with the Twins since July 10. He pitched a scoreless inning … but also topped out at 90.4 mph. Trevor May pitching in the major leagues for the first time since September 11, 2016. He gave up a run on a pair of hits over his inning of work and clocked in as high as 95.6 mph. Jose Ramirez was just incredible, as he has been all year for Cleveland. He was 3-for-4 with a double, a walk, three RBIs and a stolen base. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1024501967110860801 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: AL Central Standings CLE 58-48 MIN 49-57 (-9) DET 46-62 (-13) CHW 37-68 (-20.5) KC 32-73 (-25.5) Next Three Games Wed vs. CLE, 12:10 pm CT: Adalberto Mejia vs. Carlos Carrasco Thu: Off Fri at KC, 7:10 pm CT: TBD Sat at KC, 6:10 pm CTL TBD Last Three Games MIN 5, CLE 4: Awesome Sauce! BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion
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I think there is some value in this being sort of a "turn the page" type of trade. We all know Dozier was sort of the de facto voice of the clubhouse after Torii retired. Since he wasn't going to be coming back, I do think it may make things easier to move forward without him being around. I dunno, just my two cents looking from the outside in. Either way, you've got a stopgap to temporarily fill second base for the rest of the year if you choose and two guys who've been in Double A. I've been suspicious that Dozier has been playing a little banged up all year, so this is the return to be expected, I suppose. Still, the casual fans (and by that I mean mainly Vikings and Wild fans who happen to know the Twins exist) are going to have a field day with this one.
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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins and Dodgers are close on a trade that would send Brian Dozier to Los Angeles. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN is reporting the deal is done. And now we have the return: Logan Forsythe, Devin Smeltzer and Luke Raley.Like Dozier, Forsythe is on an expiring contract. His inclusion in the deal seems to be 100 percent about money moving around. Raley was the No. 19 prospect in the Dodgers' org per MLB Pipeline. Smeltzer was not included in LA's top 30. Raley, 23, has spent all season with the Dodgers' Double-A affiliate, and has posted a .275/.345/.477 line while splitting his time between first base and the outfield. He's been particularly hot of late, hitting .303/.366/.529 (.896 OPS) in July. He bats left and throws right. He was drafted in the seventh round back in 2016. Smeltzer, the Dodgers' fifth-round pick back in 2016, has also spent his entire season in Double A. The 22-year-old lefty has a 4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 3.53 K:BB ratio over 83 2/3 innings. He made 14 starts to open this season, but his most recent nine appearances have all been out of the bullpen. In his first two seasons as a pro, Smeltzer averaged 10.1 K/9 over 153 innings, but that figure has dropped to 7.2 K/9 so far this season. Dozier, of course, was set to be a free agent this upcoming season. The Twins could have extended him a qualifying offer, a one-year deal somewhere between $17-$18 million. If Dozier turned that deal down and went on to sign for more than $50 million, the Twins would have received a draft pick in between the first and second rounds. If his eventual deal would have been for less than $50 million, a pretty safe assumption at this point, the Twins would have gotten a pick between the second and third rounds. With this deal the Twins have added another couple of pieces to the system, but if the value Dozier brought back was any indication of what's to come once he reaches free agency, it seems to me at least it would have been likely he and his camp would have accepted the qualifying offer. So what happens now? It'll be interesting to see if Forsythe sticks around as a hopeful waiver trade deadline piece for the Twins to market to other clubs. There's not an obvious replacement for Dozier at second base. The leading option was Ehire Adrianza with Gregorio Petit, Taylor Motter and Nick Gordon all factoring in somehow from Triple A. Click here to view the article
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Like Dozier, Forsythe is on an expiring contract. His inclusion in the deal seems to be 100 percent about money moving around. Raley was the No. 19 prospect in the Dodgers' org per MLB Pipeline. Smeltzer was not included in LA's top 30. Raley, 23, has spent all season with the Dodgers' Double-A affiliate, and has posted a .275/.345/.477 line while splitting his time between first base and the outfield. He's been particularly hot of late, hitting .303/.366/.529 (.896 OPS) in July. He bats left and throws right. He was drafted in the seventh round back in 2016. Smeltzer, the Dodgers' fifth-round pick back in 2016, has also spent his entire season in Double A. The 22-year-old lefty has a 4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 3.53 K:BB ratio over 83 2/3 innings. He made 14 starts to open this season, but his most recent nine appearances have all been out of the bullpen. In his first two seasons as a pro, Smeltzer averaged 10.1 K/9 over 153 innings, but that figure has dropped to 7.2 K/9 so far this season. Dozier, of course, was set to be a free agent this upcoming season. The Twins could have extended him a qualifying offer, a one-year deal somewhere between $17-$18 million. If Dozier turned that deal down and went on to sign for more than $50 million, the Twins would have received a draft pick in between the first and second rounds. If his eventual deal would have been for less than $50 million, a pretty safe assumption at this point, the Twins would have gotten a pick between the second and third rounds. With this deal the Twins have added another couple of pieces to the system, but if the value Dozier brought back was any indication of what's to come once he reaches free agency, it seems to me at least it would have been likely he and his camp would have accepted the qualifying offer. So what happens now? It'll be interesting to see if Forsythe sticks around as a hopeful waiver trade deadline piece for the Twins to market to other clubs. There's not an obvious replacement for Dozier at second base. The leading option was Ehire Adrianza with Gregorio Petit, Taylor Motter and Nick Gordon all factoring in somehow from Triple A.
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Article: Twins Trade Lance Lynn to Yankees
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In their write up of the deal, Baseball America is reporting that Rijo's fastball is more in the 91-93 range. -
Article: MIN 5, CLE 4: Awesome Sauce!
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes, there is an open spot, I think I saw someone mention that a pitcher would be called up today, but I haven't seen which pitcher. Maybe they're waiting for the deadline to pass to see exactly how many sports they'll have open? Trevor May would make would make a lot of sense, you'd have to think it'll be a right-handed reliever and he's been getting it done in Rochester.- 29 replies
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Article: MIN 5, CLE 4: Awesome Sauce!
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The hate has gone WAY too far on Buxton. Over the last 365 days he's played 84 games with the Twins and hit .254/.295/.437 (a slightly above league average OPS) in 319 PAs with 11 HRs, is 18-for-18 on stolen base attempts and obviously is elite in the field. If his second half 2017 would have come in the first half, he absolutely would have been an All-Star, he finished 18th in AL MVP voting last year. I get it that people are disappointed he hasn't lived up to expectations and has been hurt a lot, but this is swinging way too far back the other direction.- 29 replies
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Mitch Garver, AKA GarvSauce, delivered a walk-off double to beat Cleveland, clearing a fog that had been surrounding this Twins team since the Eduardo Escobar trade. Miguel Sano showed some signs of life in his third game back from the minors and the bullpen was outstanding.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Ervin Santana: 27 Game Score, 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K, 2 BB, 68.2% strikes Multi-Hit Games: Miguel Sano (2-for-3, 2B, BB), Mitch Garver (2-for-4, 2B) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .271, Magill .180, Sano .171, Polanco .158, Rodney .147, Moya .131 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.156, Santana -.278 Download attachment: WinChart730.png Let’s go around the horn … First Base Wooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!! Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen730.png AL Central Standings CLE 57-48 MIN 49-56 (-8) DET 45-62 (-13) CHW 37-68 (-20) KC 32-73 (-25) Next Three Games Tue vs. CLE, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Trevor Bauer Wed vs. CLE, 12:10 pm CT: Adalberto Mejia vs. Carlos Carrasco Thu Off Fri at KC, 7:10 pm CT: TBD Last Three Games BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, but at Least We Still Have Belisle Click here to view the article
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Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Ervin Santana: 27 Game Score, 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K, 2 BB, 68.2% strikes Multi-Hit Games: Miguel Sano (2-for-3, 2B, BB), Mitch Garver (2-for-4, 2B) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .271, Magill .180, Sano .171, Polanco .158, Rodney .147, Moya .131 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.156, Santana -.278 Let’s go around the horn … First Base Wooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!! https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1024130397867659264 Mitch Garver has been on a tear. This guy needs to be in the lineup as often as he can handle. On the days he’s not behind the plate, the Twins don’t have a better DH option on the team than GarvSauce. One of the funnest things about these next two months will (hopefully) be a lot more moments like this one. Second Base This team needs Miguel Sano, and I’m not just talking about the 2018 Twins. He showed some positive signs in his third game back from the minors tonight. He hit an RBI double in the second inning, singled in the fifth and made a great catch going back on a ball in foul territory. Sano also led off the bottom of the ninth by drawing an eight-pitch walk. Gotta take the good with the bad. Yes, he also struck out. He was also picked off by the catcher at second base. It was an eventful day at the office. Third Base Ervin Santana looks like he’s in survival mode. In his first two starts back, he’s been throwing tons of changeups. He’s gone to that pitch 61 times among the 185 pitches he’s thrown in these two starts. Last year, he only went to the changeup around 10 percent of the time. The fastball’s just not back. Ervin topped out at 90.9 mph. He only got four swinging strikes on his 88 pitches. The fact that he’s been able to limit the damage as much as he has is a credit to his willingness to adjust. Home Plate In case you missed it, the Twins traded Zach Duke to Seattle and dealt Lance Lynn to the Yankees. Adalberto Mejia will take Lynn’s spot in the rotation and Addison Reed was activated off the DL. With the bullpen shuffling and this game being tied late, we got to see some different looks from Paul Molitor. Gabriel Moya bailed out Santana in the sixth inning, recording the final two outs with two runners on base. Then, Molitor went right to Trevor Hildenberger, who worked a scoreless seventh. Taylor Rogers came out for the eighth, but after giving up singles to two of the three batters he faced, Matt Magill came in. Yes, Matt Magill. He came back out of the witness protection program, or where ever he’d been, and pitched in the eighth inning of a tie ballgame. He retired the next two batters to end the threat. With the top of the Cleveland order coming up in the ninth, Molitor turned things over to Fernando Rodney. He was very on brand. He walked leadoff man Francisco Lindor on four pitches. https://twitter.com/Cut4/status/1024128241882132480 Lindor advanced to third with one out and then just when you were convinced it was all going to come crashing down … a strikeout. Then another walk. Then he fell behind the next batter 2-0 … and struck him out. Never a dull moment. This may have been the final time we’ll see Rodney in a Twins jersey. If that’s how it goes down, this was pretty much a signature game to remember him by. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1024137486656651264 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: AL Central Standings CLE 57-48 MIN 49-56 (-8) DET 45-62 (-13) CHW 37-68 (-20) KC 32-73 (-25) Next Three Games Tue vs. CLE, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Trevor Bauer Wed vs. CLE, 12:10 pm CT: Adalberto Mejia vs. Carlos Carrasco Thu Off Fri at KC, 7:10 pm CT: TBD Last Three Games BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, but at Least We Still Have Belisle
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