mazeville

I don't mind holding off on many major moves until the trade deadline. That is particularly true with someone like Ervin Santana who would likely fetch a better return at the time. And you're right: It'd be better to build the team's front office at this point. But the Twins have to look at trading Dozier in the offseason because there will be many more potential suitors now than there would be at the trade deadline. It is what it is.

I seem to recall a blogger or two - not Seth - being highly skeptical of Dozier and of members of the media who hyped him as a rookie. And then Dozier only went on to become an all-star and one of the best second basemen in the game. Good for Brian Dozier, who is by all accounts a great guy. One of the very few bright spots to last season. That said, he is at peak value right now. So I cannot imagine Brian Dozier would not attract some good, positive attention on the trade market. This doesn't mean you HAVE to trade him. But the Twins would be bone stupid if they didn't explore the idea. They need too many pieces to ignore that kind of a trade chip.

These guys are doing exactly what I'd do: Take the gig, then refrain from major changes until you can see how the organization works and is run. In most cases, new CEOs of companies don't overhaul staff right away. But over the following months you start seeing resignations from top management, etc. I'd imagine that some of the top people in the Twins FO will ultimately leave simply because it'll be different management. In this case, my guess is that Falvine (Falvey + Levine) did not decide to dump Bruno but went on the recommendations of Molitor and Antony. This is the right idea, IMO. They don't know enough about the organization yet to make major changes, I think. And as long as Molitor is going to be the coach one more year he might as well have major say on the coaches. And they'll have their hands full building front office staff.

Why keep Plouffe at $9 million? Everything else seems good to me. I like the Stephen Drew signing in particular. But I'm still wondering about a potential Santana trade. Then again, you could trade Ervin Santana at the trade deadline for a lot more than you could in the offseason. Yet given the lack of arms on the free agent market, I think you investigate that and see what people offer.

On the list of Twins problems of the past couple of decades, this one isn't even in the top five. They've had strong offenses aplenty over that time. It's not like their offense was bad last year.

I was thinking the same thing. Actually, I was thinking that much of the series was over managed. But particularly Maddon. Taking Hendricks out early. Pitching Chapman in a 7-2 win ...

One rather important correction to this post: Jason Bartlett was traded to the Rays in 2007. So I'm not entirely sure how he was the shortstop in 2009 ... I will go to my grave believing that the Twins' problems began in 2007 in part because the team traded away Bartlett. The Twins traded him away without any logical successor. That was stupid. More stupid, in fact, than assuming Delmon Young would turn into a stud corner outfielder. Young had a solid rookie season the year before and so it's only logical to assume he'd be better the next year. But you never, ever trade away from a position -- especially shortstop -- when you do not have someone ready to take over the job. The Twins didn't. And Bartlett was a good fielder. The team hasn't been the same since. They made a smart move in 2010 by bringing in JJ Hardy. But then traded him a year later because Gardenhire was annoyed by his injuries and apparent lack of speed. If I'm the Twins, I keep Escobar at short next year, assuming Dozier is traded and Polanco is at second. And then I hope that Vielma or Gordon can man the position in the coming years. But I most definitely keep drafting shortstops in the hopes that one of them will stick at some point. Because man, this position has been cursed ...

Don't spend big on a closer. Develop one. Spend big on a closer when it will help you get over the hump. And in any event, the playoffs demonstrate why "closer" is antiquated and that teams should use their top relievers for the most stressful in-game situations.

Yeah, the problem with this is that the regime at Target Field is changing. So any alleged showcase could be dismissed with the presence of Derek Falvey. Personally, I think the trade Brian Dozier scenario is the most likely given where the Twins are at and what they need. You trade Jorge Polanco when you need to trade for a veteran because you're close to contention. You trade Brian Dozier when you need prospects to help your team improve. This team is definitely in the latter category.

I think Kennys Vargas should go into next year as the starting DH. Kid had an .830 OPS in 2016. He struck out a lot yes, but he drew a few walks and provided some nice pop in the middle of the lineup. You could also platoon Vargas at first with Joe Mauer, who should not play every day next year, anyway. Mauer wasn't very good with lefties this year. Vargas destroyed lefthanded pitching. Mauer had a .793 OPS v. righthanded pitching.

That's not true. He jumped on Nolasco and Phil Hughes early. His free agent pitching signings were bad. But they weren't late.

Boy I do not get this. 1. The Twins have a ton -- TON -- of players best suited to DH. If they are going to occupy the DH spot full time by one of Sano or Plouffe, then they're basically giving up on players like Kennys Vargas, given the presence of the unmovable Joe Mauer. 2. Sano needs to keep learning in the field. People have been awfully quick to write off his defense. And granted, it's not good. But you have to give this kid more time to play that position, given his recent injury history and the fact that the Twins had him DH in 2015. Sano needs to play third base full time next year. 3. Third base is an easy position to fill, relative to other positions. The Twins can make trades for or sign cheap free agent third basemen if it becomes abundantly clear that Sano is not going to make it at third. 4. Plouffe has no future on this team beyond next year. He BARELY had any trade value last offseason, when he was coming off a strong season. Even if the Twins keep him until the trade deadline and he performs well, he's still not going to fetch much in a trade scenario. AND, the team would have spent $4 million to $5 million while blocking younger players from more playing time. For the love of all that is holy, stop it with this keep-Plouffe stuff. He needs to be non-tendered. If the team can find someone willing to throw a low-level prospect at us for him, all the better. But this team needs to play young players and shed itself of guys who have little or no chance of being here in 2018. Period.

I like a lot of this comment but this in particular. This sentiment should color everything the Twins do this offseason. The reality is the Twins will not contend in 2017, whether anybody likes it or not. That should keep them away from the free agent market unless said free agent is young and will help the team for years to come. It's also why you trade guys like Dozier and Ervin Santana and non-tender guys like Trevor Plouffe. Personally, I have hopes this team can rebuild quickly because of the cache of young talent. But this team needs too many players, especially pitchers, to be truly competitive.

In some ways the Twins are actually ahead of where the Cubs were back when Epstein and Co. took over -- they already have a cache of young talent here that just needs to be reconfigured a bit and supplemented with strong pitching. But I think the fundamental thing is that the team needs patience, and it needs to be smart about draft picks and aggressive in making trades and signing international free agents. And Falvey must be willing to take risks. Those are the things the Cubs did the past few years.

Derek Falvey has grown up in a completely different baseball world than Terry Ryan."High marks" in one decade are not the same as they are now.High marks from the scouting departments and player development in the current generation of MLB front office means an awful lot as to the character and skills of the person.The same as what happened in Terry Ryan's generation. Also, from the Pioneer Press article:One of Falvey’s associates raved about his “people skills,” calling him “an outstanding person” and a “communicator with an analytic mind-set.” Follow-ups to the interview.... Except that TR got "high marks" last year. As far as I know, last year is still the same decade as this year. And LOTS of people say that TR has people skills and is an outstanding person. People LOVE the guy. Every single thing Jim Pohlad has said and done have pointed to only one thing:Change.Step 1 seems to be completed.Step 2 is the person hired for Step1 to hire a GM.Keeping a manager to assist in a turnover is an establish SOP in every business. It is certainly not SOP in the baseball business. You hire a new POBO, that POBO gets to hire a manager. Highly, highly common. I'm not anti-Pohlad, not by a long shot. But forcing your new POBO to keep a manager is short-sighted. Worse, it's a sign that the ownership is taking a more hands-on role than it should. My hope is that Pohlad basically lied when he said that Molitor would return. (It wouldn't be the first time, either) And again, this team has been AWFUL for years. They do not deserve the benefit of the doubt whatsoever when it comes to their decisions. I refuse to give it to them because glowing media reports say the new POBO is highly regarded.

That doesn't tell me a thing why my comments are absurd. Here are two things that are absurd about your comment: First, you assume that getting "high marks for his interaction with the scouting and player-development departments" automatically necessitates POBO material. Those "high marks" don't tell me anything. You know who else got high marks for such things? Terry Ryan. Second, it's absurd to dismiss any question about this hiring. The Twins are about to break the team record for losses. Its owner refuses to let the new POBO name his own manager. It will finish last for the fifth time in six seasons. I'm not going to suddenly ignore all of this team's bad moves simply because this one looks good. I'll give the hire this: It's a gutsy move. But what will ultimately make this move successful is if the ownership enables Falvey to make the overhaul he needs to make — rather than simply be a new name atop the same organization.

I sure hope they're not hiring the young guy so he wouldn't be as strong and therefore wouldn't make the top-to-bottom changes this organization needs. In other words, my fear here is that Falvey would be more prone to keep Antony and many others in the Twins' org while simply employing some of the strategies he used in Cleveland. In my view, this team needs an absolute overhaul of its front office. Keep some people if you need, but the new POBO has to bring a new culture and a new way of doing things. Period.

The fundamental difference between 2016 and 2011, when the Twins first stumbled into oblivion, is the fact that this year's team has assets that could provide for a quicker turnaround. There is the young core of players who could definitely improve. There are players like Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana who could be flipped for younger players who could speed up the rebuild. In addition, the team has the top pick in the draft along with the most money to spend on prospects next year. I'm not nearly as pessimistic as I was back in 2011 when the team had few tradable assets and no high quality prospects. That was bad.

Indeed, go youth. But Trevor May needs to be a starter. Clearly, this bullpen thing ain't working, and the Twins need starters badly.

Right. So how do you do that? Free agency? The Arizona Diamondbacks went out and got one of the top free agent pitchers on the market, then traded for Shelby Miller, and look where that got them. This is a 100-loss team. Clayton Kershaw wouldn't fix the pitching. This team has to fix the defense and get better pitchers if it is going to improve. And if you look at some of the best rebuilding jobs over the years -- like, say, the Cubs -- they all accelerated their rebuilds by making trades of players they should supposedly had kept. For the Twins, that's Brian Dozier. While it's tough to lose that kind of production, the team didn't have any better of a record in the second half, when he was playing out of his mind, than they did in the first half, when he was awful. There is no way -- NO WAY -- the Twins can fix this problem simply by spending money on some free agent pitchers. That defense is too bad. They have to take every step possible to improve. That means trading Dozier.

I remain convinced that this is untrue. The bigger problem was Terry Ryan, who was not aggressive and thus didn't target top free agents or make trades for top talent (like Alfonso Soriano when the team was contending and needed some power). I'm not saying ownership here is not at fault for the team's problems. It absolutely is. But I still don't think spending is the issue. It is quality of oversight. Poor drafts, not making trades when players are at top value, not aggressively bidding for international free agents, weirdly holding onto players, not adapting to changing times, etc. Those have been the team's problems. And I believe a good POBO could fix this and get the ability to make moves necessary to improve the team's record without being "hamstrung" by ownership. I believe this job could be highly attractive. I get why Alex Anthopoulos wouldn't take this gig -- he just moved to LA, after all. But this team is loyal. It has a new stadium, a good base of young talent, and some big contracts coming off the books in the next couple of years. And the media market is far easier on teams here than, say, New York or Boston or LA or Chicago. This team should be able to attract a good POBO. Period.

Fully agree with that. Bad teams should sign low risk, high reward guys to short-term deals. I just don't think you can depend on free agency to rebuild.

The comment I was responding to said you sign a free agent and then built around that FA. That's backwards. You build a team and then sign a FA. You want to devote as much roster space to young, inexpensive players when you're not good to see whether some of those guys can work out and to ensure you get better draft positions to get good players. Spending a lot of money on a single player for a bad team can give that team a couple of wins that won't help it make the playoffs while hurting draft position and reducing the budget teams get for international free agents. And it blocks those young players. Joe Mauer has not gotten the Twins into the playoffs in the past six years. His contract is not hurting the team necessarily. But he is taking up a first base slot that could have been used for Kennys Vargas or Miguel Sano. (I'm a big Mauer fan, by the way and have no problem with the contract he signed given his performance in 2009 and the team's position; this is just an example.) Mauer had 5.3 WAR in 2013. Had he been placed with a 2 WAR player the Twins would have drafted 3rd in 2014 instead of 5th and could have had Carlos Rodon or Kyle Schwarber instead of Nick Gordon. No guarantee the team drafts them, but draft position MATTERS. And going into 2013, the Twins were going to be terrible. More to the point, free agents are typically older, meaning that in the time it takes that aforementioned bad team to start gelling, said FA might well be past his prime and not as effective. It's inefficient spending. So building "around" those free agents is just backwards. You get the team to the point where the free agents can take it to the next level. That's what the Cubs did. So yes, it does hurt teams to sign big free agents when they're bad.

Absolutely not. Name one team that successfully did that and I will name 10 that did the exact opposite. So I guess here I go: The Chicago Cubs this year; the 1990s Yankees; early 2000s Twins; Kansas City Royals; current Cleveland Indians; current Boston Red Sox; current Houston Astros; 1990s Cleveland Indians; 2011 St. Louis Cardinals; 2012 San Francisco Giants. In each of those cases they developed their own players and made key trades and, in some but not all cases, signed free agents to supplement their rosters. That is, by far, the best way to build a team. You don't just go out, throw $200 million at a pitcher, and expect to contend next year. You need a LOT of players to build a successful team.

Agree, which is why big free agent deals should be reserved for when you KNOW you'll be in contention. But there's a big difference between the $55 million Santana got and the $200 million for those guys.