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mazeville

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Everything posted by mazeville

  1. mazeville
    Guess we'll see if all this analytics stuff works because the Twins didn't do anything else this offseason ...
  2. mazeville
    You're going to hear about Benintendi forever because the Twins passed on him for a guy who is going to be a reliever. And you will continue to hear about Benintendi until Tyler Jay distinguishes himself in the Major Leagues. As for "how many other teams" passed on him -- yes, five other teams passed on him. But the top two draft picks that year were Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, both of whom are among the top prospects in the game at the moment. Of the others, only Dillon Tate has so far been a bust in the minors. Everybody else is at least considered at top 35 prospect at the moment. In 2014, the Twins passed on Trea Turner for Nick Gordon, but nobody harps on that because Nick Gordon is still considered a solid prospect. If Tyler Jay was still considered among the better 50 or so prospects in baseball, you would hear a LOT less about it. I know it was the previous regime. So at this point it is simply a reminder of what that regime did wrong.
  3. mazeville
    Good grief, it's time to quit babying Buxton. Bat the kid third if you think he'll do best there. And against lefties I don't even have Mauer in the lineup.
  4. mazeville
    The Twins could have had Andrew Benintendi with that pick. I know that drafting in the major leagues is far from a perfect science. But you have to do better with the sixth pick than a guy you *think* could be converted to a starter. It's yet another piece of evidence that the previous administration needed to go. Tyler Jay was one of the best hopes that the string of high draft picks would ultimately bear more fruit than their rankings would indicate. Now he's a reliever. He could be a damn good reliever. But a reliever nonetheless. That said, I don't mind this move. The current administration should not think in terms of saving the reputation of picks it did not make, and should do what's best for the player and the team for the long run. If Tyler Jay makes more sense as a reliever, then Tyler Jay should be a reliever.
  5. mazeville
    Players advance through the minor leagues so they play gradually better competition on their way to the majors. Polanco, who already had some questions about his ability at short, did not play in AAA -- even though there was a chance he would be the major league shortstop some day. I consider this a pretty big mistake, even if the Twins did intend to trade Brian Dozier to open up second for Polanco. To me, though, it just speaks to the failures of the prior administration, and why it needed to be changed. They've just failed on too many prospects. Polanco is just part of a broader issue. Hopefully, that gets resolved under the new regime. But I definitely blame the FO on this one and not Molitor.
  6. mazeville
    Vargas deserves a spot on the team and I imagine he gets one. He hammered left-handed pitching last year and could platoon at first with Joe Mauer. So even if the Twins do sign another bat, Vargas likely earns himself plenty of playing time simply because Mauer is not a full time player anymore. To be perfectly honest, I'm not entirely sure why we're looking for corner infielder/DH types. But Vargas will be on the roster and he's earned it.
  7. mazeville
    I get that, to an extent. The Sano-as-DH thing began even before those pop-ups were dropped. A lot of people view him as a DH because of his size. Here's the thing, though: You WANT Sano to be a third baseman. A 40-homer third baseman is a lot rarer than a 40-homer first baseman or a 40-homer DH. And he has a ton of value if he simply plays average defense.
  8. mazeville
    Again, they are absolutely not going to DH Sano. I will never, ever understand this. Kid is 22 years old and numerous fans want to DH him already. Watch Sano enough in the field and you see something there. He has not had much chance to play third in the majors because he initially came up as a DH for a playoff run and then the Twins made the stupid decision to keep try him in right field. Give Sano a spring training at third and put him there the first few months of the season. Personally, I find it doubtful that anybody but Polanco is the starting shortstop. At least for the first few months of the season, you stick him there and see if he improves. If it doesn't work, you find a trade partner for Dozier and put Polanco at second and Adrianza gives you a glove at short.
  9. mazeville
    This is a 103-loss team until it isn't. The new regime did little to change the roster beyond jettisoning Plouffe and signing Castro. Nothing to build for the future. No other major free agent signings. Nothing to bolster the league's worst pitching staff. I get that they can improve. I wouldn't be surprised if this team won 80 games this year based on all of the things you said. But keep in mind that this is a team that had an all-world second baseman and a surprisingly strong season from Ervin Santana and still lost 100 games. It'll take an awful lot to win those 80 games given the roster.
  10. mazeville
    The Twins could easily lose 100 games again. They lost 100 games last year with Ervin Santana having one of his best seasons and Brian Dozier having a 6 WAR year. So it's easy to see how this team could lose 100 games. I still believe this team is more likely to win 75-80 games than lose 100. But it would not take that much for the Twins to repeat their awful 2016.
  11. mazeville
    I generally agree, though I would not quite call it a disaster. To me, though, it signals that this offseason has so far been disappointing. Same coaches but for a few changes. Same pitching staff. Same lineup except for the addition of Jason Castro. My brain tells me to be more patient, that Falvine just got started and need some time to make adjustments and most new regimes start out slow. And this one has a lot of work to do to beef up the front office. But after a 100-loss season, you just want to see more than the signing of one catcher, right?
  12. mazeville
    Last year was likely due to small sample size, but Vargas is still much better v lefties than righties (by like 140 points) and after last season deserves a shot to have at least a platoon role with the team. If Vargas can at least hold up his career average against lefties and Mauer does .800 or better against righties, which he should, then you do have a pretty solid everyday first baseman. And if Vargas can repeat what he did last year, or at least have some proximation of those numbers, then you indeed have a stud corner infielder. The overarching point, however, is that by putting players in situations where they can perform best, then you are going to get better overall production. There is no point to having Mauer play first base against lefthanded pitchers at this point in his career when he has injury problems and an OPS of less than .700 when there's a guy on the team who plays first base and who last year completely destroyed those lefties.
  13. mazeville
    Platooning is a concept long, LONG overdue at Target Field. Last year, Vargas had a 1.262 OPS versus lefties. Mauer had a .793 OPS versus righties (which would have been higher, probably, but for his late season injury). Put them together and you have a stud corner infielder.
  14. mazeville
    If you squint really hard, and perhaps wear a set of really strong reading glasses, you can see the possibility of competitiveness: Hughes returns to form; Ervin Santana repeats what he did last year; Jose Berrios reaches his potential; Kyle Gibson improves; Hector Santiago or Trevor May fill out the fifth spot nicely. But, that said, I think I prefer going into the season thinking Hughes as a bullpen piece. He's had some success there.
  15. mazeville
    Well obviously they're not close to a deal, otherwise it would have been done. But you said there "isn't a serious Dodgers offer on the table." From multiple reports the Dodgers are offering DeLeon, and more than likely some other pieces (per Ken Rosenthal). That is a serious offer. Is it good enough? Absolutely not. And I remain convinced a deal won't happen. But that doesn't mean there aren't an offers on the table. If I'm right then yes, we'll likely have wasted our time.
  16. mazeville
    I don't think that's true at all. I just think there's a difference between what the Dodgers view as Dozier's worth and the Twins. WAY too much talk about this and way too many reports.
  17. mazeville
    I remain skeptical a deal gets done. I fully agree that the Twins should not trade Dozier for one unproven player - or, as is more likely, that one unproven player plus a couple of AAAA players. He's worth more than that. I just have a hard time believing that somehow things will change now that it's January. Why would the Dodgers budge? Nobody else seems willing to pay the price for Dozier, so why would the team that needs him most suddenly pony up more when they weren't willing to do so earlier?
  18. mazeville
    It's good to point out the Twins' pitching prospects, but I wouldn't go as far as to say "Giddy up" as he did at the end. Yes, the Twins have some good pitching prospects, and they could get more with a Dozier trade. But none of these are sure things, and the team's abysmal history of developing pitchers suggests we should all be skeptical. In other words: They have a lot to prove.
  19. mazeville
    I love this report, but I think calling the 2003-2013 drafts "very much average" is really looking at this through rose-colored glasses. They were decidedly below average, based on your research. They're average in getting players who can play in the majors. But they're below average in getting people to the majors who have an impact once they're there. And, as it's been pointed out, the Twins do not spend on free agents or big international signings (though they do sign lots of international players - they generally won't go after the competitive free agents that might cost some money). So they need to draft better than average to remain competitive, and they don't. You can't make up a team with nothing but a bunch of 1 or 2 WAR players. You need impact players, and the Twins haven't been able to do that with enough regularity to justify their failure to spend in other areas. In addition, the jury is still very much out on the drafts since 2012. While I remain confident in Buxton, as well as Berrios, that 2012 draft at this point is looking more like an outlier. All of this is water under the bridge, of course, because there is a new regime. But to me, the Twins' failure at drafting, and doing little to compensate for those bad drafts, has been the biggest reason for their struggles in recent years.
  20. mazeville
    Nice. Really nice. But I'd conclude that the Twins' drafting has been below average based on your analysis. T They've been middle of the pack when it comes to drafting players who make the majors and can get playing time. But they've been far below average at drafting players who ultimately make an impact. And that's been their fault. But the limitations of the list also show that you have to be good at making trades and at international scouting (which is HUGE). Can't do well these days if you're not out there getting good international players. I hope all this improves.
  21. mazeville
    I think a Dozier trade remains the biggest thing the Twins need to do. And then I'd look for a reclamation project as a relief pitcher. That might be it. They should look at trading Ervin Santana, but teams can and should carry starting pitchers into the season and trade them at the deadline when their value is highest (contenders are always desperate for starters). We're assuming Santana has a good season, but he has been consistent. On top of that, keeping Santana for the first part of the season gives some of your younger guys more time in the minors. That said, if the Rangers called and offered Jurickson Profar I probably send Santana packing (not saying that's a legit trade, just an example). But I'd be OK holding onto Ervin as the season starts.
  22. mazeville
    Twins aren't getting Urias. Dodgers wouldn't trade him for Chris Sale. So there's no reason to believe they'd trade him for a combination of Dozier and Santana. That said, I definitely get the sentiment: The Twins need high upside talent. They need a top-flight starter, not yet another No. 3 starter. But I'd be on board with them getting someone who is not quite major league ready if they get that No. 1 starter type. They're not competing next year, anyway.
  23. mazeville
    I would agree with this. I'd rather May start. And I expect that Haley would be a long reliever, at least at first. Hughes should also go to the bullpen. But I expect the Twins will have him start. Add to this a potential Dozier trade, maybe the Twins need to part with a starter.
  24. mazeville
    So who will start now? The Twins have a bunch of guys on the 40-man who can start: Ervin Santana Jose Berrios Justin Haley Kyle Gibson Mejia Trevor May Santiago Duffey Hughes I imagine May and Duffey go to the pen and so may Haley, if he makes the team, while Mejia stays in AAA. But I'd rather Hughes go to the pen and May start.
  25. mazeville
    Now Berardino saying the Twins are trading Diaz for Justin Haley ... https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/806865703257174016
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