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The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 Major League Baseball season with postseason aspirations. Coming off of a Wild Card berth a year ago, it was fair to expect this club to challenge the Indians for the American League Central Division title. For a multitude of reasons, things didn't pan out as expected, and that left the club as sellers when it came to the trade deadline. As has often been the case, the front office positioned and executed the endeavor near flawlessly.
 
Having lots of money to spend this offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine bolstered the organization with talent. At the time, all of the acquisitions made a ton of sense, and looked nothing short of great on paper. We know that across the board plenty of players fell flat for Minnesota, and that allowed more shrewd decision making to come into play. Thanks to the short term commitment, and multiple one-year deals handed out, the Twins found themselves with assets able to be moved when their direction took a turn.
 
It's always tough to see a player like Eduardo Escobar leave the organization he broke out in, but the reality is that the Twins maximized his value. Zach Duke and Lance Lynn were set to depart at season's end for nothing, and getting a return helps to stretch their effectiveness for the club into the future. Now a handful of trades in, there's reason to like every one of them.
 
Eduardo Escobar to Arizona for SP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel, and OF Ernie De La Trinidad
 
It's Duran that highlights this package for the Twins. All three prospects are current in Single-A, and given the depth in the Diamondbacks system (or lack thereof), these are three relative lottery tickets. That said, Maciel was highly touted as an International signee and stockpiling some talent that Minnesota may have missed out on when each was available as an amateur is hardly a bad get. Escobar was set to be a free agent at season's end, and now he gets to go be a part of a pennant race. Minnesota could bring him back this offseason (and if they can do so at the right dollar figure, it'd be very appealing), but getting some tangible return for him while they could is a very good move.
 
Ryan Pressly to Houston for SP Jorge Alcala and OF Gilberto Celestino
 
Flipping Pressly stings a bit, as I've been vocal about how good of a pitcher he is for quite some time. In 2018, he truly emerged as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. With another year of team control, it's unfortunate he won't be around to help what should be a competitive Twins team in 2019. That said, the reality is that he's a reliever. With pen arms being fickle, it made sense to flip him for a healthy return at a time when Minnesota had plenty of suitors. Getting a prospect with triple digit velocity in return is a nice piece, and it opens the door for Minnesota to explore some internal options in hops of backfilling Ryan's role.
 
Zach Duke to Seattle for SP Chase De Jong and IF Ryan Costello
 
Here is the first move in which the Twins front office continues to make a one-year deal work for them. Duke was signed for just $2.15 million this offseason and was handed a one-year deal. Having just two months left on his contract and not in a position to provide Minnesota value, the two prospects continue to do so. Although neither piece is a blue chip talent, there's little reason to scoff at the ability to develop and potentially drive major league talent out of players that will be around long after Duke would have left the organization. The Mariners get a lefty killer in return, and Duke's time with the Twins was an effective one.
 
Lance Lynn to New York for 1B Tyler Austin and SP Luis Rijo
 
If you'd ask who among the Twins free agent acquisitions underperformed the most this season, it'd have to be a tossup between Lynn and Logan Morrison. Being able to send the former Cardinals hurler out for a respectable return only highlights the importance of a track record. After missing virtually all of spring training, Lynn has been better since being awful his first month or so. He was striking out batters (and walking them) at career high rates, but there's too much leash there to believe he's cooked. In going to the Yankees, Lynn represents another one-year deal that plays future dividends for the Twins. Austin is out of options, so it would make sense that Minnesota give him ample opportunity to stick down the stretch. Rijo is a lottery ticket that you'd never be wise to turn down.
 
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Two months ago, I wrote an article here about who should be promoted. Well, four of those five on the list have been promoted, as well as two of the three of my honorable mentions. Well, I am back again to do an updated list. I decided to write this one before I head off to school to work on my Master’s because I likely won’t have much time when that time comes.
 
Honorable Mentions:
Johan Quezada, RP, Elizabethton
Tyler Benninghoff, SP, GCL Twins
Anthony Escobar, SP, DSL Twins
Todd Van Steensel, RP, Chattanooga
 
5. Janigson Villalobos, C, GCL Twins
 
Villalobos was traded to the Twins earlier this season from San Diego in a deal that saw Minnesota say goodbye to Phil Hughes and a draft pick. In his first three seasons, he has improved dramatically, and he has made his biggest jump this year. In 56 at-bats this season in the Gulf Coast League, he has a slash line of .339/.413/.429. Only four of his 19 hits have been for extra bases, so hopefully that comes around for him. He does have a solid eye at the plate, as he has walked seven times in his 56 at-bats and has only struck out nine times (yes, I said that in an Ed Rooney voice). Having turned 21 a few months ago, he may have figured a few things out and a trip to Elizabethton could be in order. I mean, it makes sense, too. Ben Rodriguez was promoted to Fort Myers and Ryan Jeffers to Cedar Rapids. It makes logical sense that someone like Villalobos could take Jeffers’ roster spot in Tennessee.
 
4.. Bailey Ober, SP, Cedar Rapids
 
Ober’s stats do not ‘wow’ you over the entire season, but he has been lights out his past three starts (and really good over his last seven). The 23-year-old has an ERA of 3.88, but while that may not seem impressive, it certainly is considering how his 2018 started. His season got off to a rocky start, allowing six runs on five hits in 2/3 of an inning in a 10-5 loss to Burlington in late April. In his first three starts, he allowed 14 runs in 9.2 innings, as well as at least four runs in five of his first six starts. But since, he has only allowed eight runs in previous seven starts combined, and four of those came in a 7-4 win over Burlington last month. Since the calendar turned to June, he is 6-1 with an ERA of 1.58, slicing his season ERA from 7.86 to 3.88. His opponents batting average also went down from .339 to .252, and his WHIP went down from 1.59 to an impressive 1.08. In his last three starts, he has turned it up a notch, allowing just one run in 21.2 innings (0.42 ERA), while striking out a whopping 34. I don’t know if he will be promoted just yet, but if he has another few starts like he has had recently, there is no choice but to promote him. Last week, former teammate Bryan Sammons was promoted from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers. Ober could be next, maybe taking over a spot left by Tyler Wells, who I believe will move up to Double-A Chattanooga shortly.
 
3. Robby Rinn, 1B, Cedar Rapids
 
Rinn is an older prospect, and I normally don’t put them on this list, but he has been mashing for the Kernels. The 25-year-old was in Fort Myers for six games earlier this year, but was then returned to Cedar Rapids, where he has had 169 at-bats. In the 43 games he has played with the Kernels, he has hit .314 and has a real nice OPS of .826. Being an older prospect in a low level like Low-A, Rinn should be able to perform well, and he has done just that. Rinn, who was a 25th round pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2016, was traded by the Royals to the Twins in March. In 322 at-bats for the Idaho Falls Chukars (Rookie) last year, Rinn had a slash line of .355/.429/.511. With Rinn turning 26 in October, he needs to be challenged and he can platoon with Lewin Diaz in High-A Fort Myers. It also makes sense for the Twins, as he can be replaced on the team by 2018 eighth round pick Chris Williams, who has a slash line of .271/.380/.551 for the Elizabethton Twins.
 
2. Tyler Wells, SP, Fort Myers
 
All Tyler Wells has done since being drafted is dominate. Since being drafted in 15th round by the Twins in 2016, he had his worst year in Elizabethton after being drafted....and he went 5-2 with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.20. Following a successful stint in Cedar Rapids in 2017, Wells has had his best season in 2018. In 15 starts for the High-A Fort Myers Miracle, the Cal State Bernardino product has gone 7-4 with an ERA of 2.97 and a WHIP of an incredible 0.93. Like Rinn, he is also is a bit of an older prospect, as he turns 24 next month. He has slumped a little in July, just going 0-1 with an ERA of nearly five this month. But this comes on the heels of a great June, in which he went 4-0 with an ERA of just 1.63. Unlike many of the pitchers in the Twins organization, Wells does not have control problems, having just walked 16 in 78.2 innings so far this season. He should be promoted sometime late this year, which would create a roster spot for Ober to move to Fort Myers.
 
1. Victor Heredia, C/1B, DSL Twins
 
There is a very real possibility you have never heard of this slugger from Venezuela. Well, he has used the Dominican Summer League as his personal launching pad. Heredia did decent last season as a 16 and 17-year-old, slashing .257/.356/.351. But he has turned it up a level this season. In 36 games, Heredia, who just turned 18 last month, has a slash line of .366/.404/.611. Of his 48 hits, 18 have been for extra bases. Last season, he was listed as a catcher, but he has played first base this season. He has the ability to do both, much like Ben Rodrguez, who was recently promoted to Fort Myers. After having a real nice June, having a batting average of .300 and an OPS of .867, he has gone into Terminator Mode. Since the calendar turned to the seventh month of the year, Heredia has a slash line of .466/.492/.759. Heredia has 10 extra base hits in his 58 at-bats in the month as well. Even as a right-handed hitter, he has shown to hit right-handed pitching better than lefties. In 82 at-bats against righties, the Venezuela native has a slash line of .391/.426/.685. There is nothing left to prove down in the Dominican Summer League. If they want to utilize him as a catcher, he can take the spot on the GCL Twins left by Villalobos, who I think should be promotoed soon. The Ryan Jeffers/Ben Rodriguez promotions could send help lead Heredia to the United States before the season ends.
 
As always, feel free to critique and add who you feel should be promoted by the end of the 2018 season.

The Minnesota Twins are fully expected to be sellers at this point, and with just under a week until the July 31 trade deadline there's moves to be made. As a few teams have already started to swap assets, the hope would be that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken notice. Specifically, there seems to be real value when dealing controllable pieces and the Twins have two of the best out there.
 
Today, the Tampa Bay Rays flipped Nathan Eovaldi to the Boston Red Sox for LHP Jalen Beeks. Beeks comes in as the Red Sox 6th best prospect per Baseball America, and Tampa netting him after just 10 starts from Eovaldi post Tommy John surgery seems like some sort of sorcery. At 28, Eovaldi has always been a guy to push the radar gun. He's sitting at 97.4 mph on his fastball this year, and appears to have regained his pre-surgery form just fine. The 4.26 ERA is backed by a 4.28 FIP while his 8.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 are plenty solid. If this is the return Eovaldi commands though, what could Minnesota get for Kyle Gibson?
 
Still arbitration eligible for another season, Gibson doesn't hit the open market until 2020. Eovaldi checks in as a rental, and will only be with Boston for the remainder of 2018. After coming on strong in the second half of 2017, Gibson has continued to prove that he's truly turned a corner. With a 3.57 ERA and a 3.85 FIP in 2018 the former first round pick has been nothing short of a solid arm. He's also amped up his strikeout rate, posting a career best 8.9 K/9 mark while staying on pace with career norms in the walks department.
 
It's fair to wonder whether or not the Twins should hang onto Gibson given the likelihood that they turn things around in 2019. Despite having decent pitching depth, Minnesota would be just fine penciling the former Missouri Tiger into the top half of the rotation next season. Ideally this club is making a postseason push in 2019, and getting another strong performance out of Gibson could be integral to that taking place.
 
The Mets would have the two best arms on the market if either deGrom or Syndergaard were made available. I can't see either of them being moved however, and that means other organizations have an opportunity. If Falvey and Levine are fielding calls on Gibson, a significant haul doesn't appear to be out of the question.
 
In the bullpen, Minnesota finds another premiere asset. Ryan Pressly has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this season. He owns a 3.45 ERA with a 2.99 FIP. Jumping up his strikeout total each season, he's at a career best 13.0 K/9 in 2018. That mark puts him 9th among MLB relievers, and above guys like Brad Hand, Felipe Vasquez, and Sean Doolittle.
 
Much like Gibson, there could be little incentive for Minnesota to deal Pressly. The former Rule 5 pick has another year of arbitration eligibility and also hits the market in 2020. A focus this offseason was to revamp the bullpen, and removing Ryan from it would hurt big time. That said, Jon Morosi recently reported that the Marlins told Boston neither Jay Groome or Michael Chavis along would be enough to acquire their reliever Drew Steckenrider. While Steckenrider has more team control than that of Pressly, they're very comparable pitchers.
 
At the end of the day I'd be relatively surprised if either Pressly or Gibson was moved. Given the expectation to compete next season, having both of those players on the roster would be beneficial. Moving assets like Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar makes much more sense, and should be the focal point of the next few days. Then again if a team comes calling on Gibson or Pressly, ask for the farm and remain grounded in that.
 
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Over the past week or so, the Minnesota Twins have certainly brought a higher level of intrigue to their 2018 season. Despite getting so little out of their offense for so long, they've at least made the idea of being sellers, one worth questioning. Ultimately I'm not sure 2018 is salvageable, but expecting them to again be competitive in 2019 is a very real proposition. For those wondering about what's even further out, this one is for you.
 
I have been sitting on this question from "twins dude" on Twitter for over a month now. Wondering what the Twins lineup might look like in five years, I was waiting for a good opportunity to take a look. Immediately following the Futures Game and during this lull of Twins baseball, it seemed as good of a time as any.
 

 
So, with all of that out of the way, who takes the field where in 2023? This is my stab at that answer:
 
C- Ryan Jeffers
 
The 2018 2nd round pick has gotten off to a hot start over his first 20+ professional games. While there were questions about whether he could stick behind the plate, Minnesota believes the answer is yes. The bat will play, and he's got a decent shot to race ahead of Ben Rortvedt in getting to the big leagues.
 
1B- Miguel Sano
 
For this to be accurate, a few factors would come into play. First and foremost, Sano would need to truly dedicate himself to his craft. Even in sliding over to first from third, staying in better shape and being committed to giving the Twins more than just a shell of himself is a must. He'll be eligible for free agency in 2022, so staying with Minnesota behind that point would be reflective of a renewed belief in his ability and work ethic.
 
2B- Nick Gordon
 
We should see Gordon as soon as 2018, and immediately taking over for Brian Dozier makes a ton of sense. He's probably not quite ready to step in as an above-average big leaguer, but he's still developing. Nick has a completely different skillset than that of Brian, but it's one that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could safely deploy at the top or bottom of the lineup.
 
SS- Royce Lewis
 
Superstar, that's really the only word I'm coming up with when trying to describe Lewis. He's an incredible athlete, top tier baseball player, and an even better person. I'd be far from shocked if we don't see him in the big leagues by 2020. He could slide to the outfield, but Minnesota would obviously be better suited if he stays at short. He's not going to be the best fielder, but from an all around standpoint, he could be the next Carlos Correa.
 
3B- Jorge Polanco
 
I think Polanco remains in the Twins long term plans. He's been fine as a shortstop, and has really worked at improving himself defensively. That said, it's probably more likely he moves off than position than Lewis. Not the typical slugging corner infielder, Polanco has plenty of pop to be an asset offensively as well.
 
LF- Eddie Rosario
 
Having gone from a free winging question mark to one of the best outfielders in the game, Eddie Rosario has absolutely broken out in 2018. This isn't some flash in the pan, as we've seen it substantiated for nearly a full year now. The Twins should be looking to extend him through arbitration and into free agency.
 
CF- Byron Buxton
 
At 24, it's still way too early to give up on one of the best defenders baseball has ever seen. Buxton is incredible in center field, and I believe the bat is legit too. We've had to practice a significant amount of patience with him, but in the not-so-distant future I think we see it pay off. He needs to do a better job of staying healthy, but there's a big time breakout waiting to happen here.
 
RF- Alex Kirilloff
 
Shooting up prospect lists this season, you'd hardly remember that Kirilloff missed a full year due to Tommy John surgery. Seen as a bat only prospect coming out of high school, the offensive upside has been through the roof. He crushed Low-A, and has started off well at High-A Fort Myers. I'd imagine we could see him in the big leagues by 2020, and that thump from the left side of the plate would be incredibly welcomed. Max Kepler is going to be in the mix here, but he'll need to flash more consistency than we've seen thus far.
DH- Brent Rooker/Trevor Larnach
 
Larnach is probably the better outfielder of this duo, but Rooker can slot in at first base in the big leagues. Rotating through some of those defensive positions while being focused on hitting first, both of these bats have an opportunity to do some serious damage at the highest level. Rooker needs to cut down on the strikeouts, and work more walks, but the power is absolutely real. We've yet to see what Larnach can do professionally, but his collegiate approach was a very good one, and there's plenty of thump off his bat as well. These two would be among the better athletes cast as DH's in the majors.
 
If I were to construct a lineup out of this group, it might look something like this:
 
Buxton CF
Lewis SS
Kirilloff RF
Sano 1B
Rosario LF
Rooker DH
Polanco 3B
Jeffers C
Gordon 2B
 
Five years is a long time out, and there's so much that can happen prior to any of this actually taking place. It's fun to look at what's ahead, but given the immediate future of this club and the opportunity within the division, it's also best to not miss what is right around the corner.
 
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The Minnesota Twins dropped their 8th game in walkoff fashion while playing the Kansas City Royals deep into the May 29th evening. Accomplishing that feat means they've surpassed the mark set in each of the previous 13 seasons, and 43 of their 58 in franchise history. While walkoff scenarios can sometimes be a fluke, there's a systemic trend that has Minnesota in the dire position they now face. The pitching is there, but the offense has been nonexistent.
 
Going into the year, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were vocal about retooling a pitching staff that needed a lift. Despite a successful 2017 campaign, it was clear that Paul Molitor's offense couldn't continue to bail out the pitching staff. Using a franchise record number of starters as well as arms in total, the quality level needed to be increased in order to reduce the quantity. Now nearly through May, it's fair to say that much has been accomplished.
 
Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios lead the club in terms of fWAR with tallies of 1.4. Each pitcher has put up a clunker or two, but the vast majority of their outings have been very strong. Gibson has picked up where he left off down the stretch and expanded upon it. Now a strikeout pitcher, he's missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard. Jose Berrios has shown a better level of control, which has led to a walk rate nearly halved from a season ago.
 
Even beyond the top two starters on the staff, Garvin Alston's group has been plenty good. Jake Odorizzi has served the part of a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm, while Lance Lynn has turned in two recent starts totaling out to a 1.42 ERA. Fernando Romero has burst onto the scene as a potential ace for the future, and the depth down on the farm looks better than ever. To suggest that this is the best Twins rotation in quite some time would be putting it nicely.
 
Although the bullpen hasn't been quite as sharp, there's a lot to like out there as well. Ryan Pressly looks like one of the best relievers in baseball, while Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney have performed as expected. Zach Duke has been shaky thanks to an uncharacteristic amount of free passes, but the strikeouts have saved him from more trouble. There's room for growth in relief, but the reality is that it's not the significant problem area that the Twins have experienced in the past.
 
Pitching as a whole has made significant strides within the organization, and it's evident when comparing the club to the league as a whole. Although team ERA checks in at 16th currently (finished 19th in 2017), starter ERA sits at 12th (19th in 2017). Arguably the most impressive boost comes in the form of missing bats, something previous Twins teams simply did not do. In 2018, Minnesota starters have the 9th best K/9 in MLB, and they finished at 26th a season ago.
 
All of the above represents some very positive developments. The problem however, is that the lineup is doing very little with what they've been handed.
 
After finishing 7th in runs scored, 10th in extra base hits, and 16th in home runs a season ago, the expectation was for potency from this group. Unfortunately, Minnesota ranks 29th in runs, 29th in home runs, and 19th in extra base hits as of May 30th. Producing at what amounts to a near league worst value, it really doesn't matter what kind of outings Twins pitchers produce.
 
Through their eight walkoff losses, five of them have come against teams with records at .500 or worse. On the season, Minnesota has played 20% of their first 50 games by scoring one run or less. Simply put, there's way too many guys failing at their jobs up and down the lineup.
 
Among starters, the Twins have six players with an OPS below .750. Byron Buxton has given Paul Molitor nothing at the plate, while Brian Dozier has decided to slump for a significant period yet again this season. Miguel Sano has dropped off the table when it comes to forcing a fair amount of walks, and Logan Morrison is still attempting to find his footing after a disastrous transition to his new club.
 
Right now, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are the only players providing Minnesota any sort of value in the lineup. Eduardo Escobar's hot streak is long gone, and the bench is made up of a handful of players that really have no business being in the big leagues. What's more dire for the Twins is that answers don't really present themselves outside of the clubhouse. Calling up Nick Gordon could provide a spark, but it would be short lived until Jorge Polanco returns. Chris Carter may provide some thump to the lineup, but he could also be an exact replica of what Sano is currently providing.
 
At the end of the day, it's on the players currently a part of the 25 man (and more importantly the starting lineup) to get their bats going. While veteran leadership off the field is great, there's no better way to lead than by producing while it matters. Sano, Dozier, Buxton, and a handful of others need to get going. The postseason is likely a distant mirage at this point, but turning things around, salvaging something of purpose, and giving the pitching staff much better than they've been afforded are all musts if this collective wants to be taken seriously in the future.
 
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After making the hard, but correct, decision to move on from Phil Hughes, the Twins put some roster shuffling into motion. Trevor May, Ervin Santana, and Miguel Sano are all due back to the big league roster in short order. Paul Molitor's club is putting some heat on the scuffling Indians and the time to strike for Minnesota is right now. How they construct the 25 man going forward remains somewhat up in the air, but here's a few guess on what things may look like.
 
Phil Hughes replaced by Ryan LaMarre
 
The outfielder is on his way back to the big leagues. After being a spring training surprise, LaMarre posted a .718 OPS across 38 plate appearances in 20 games for Minnesota. Since heading down to Rochester, he's continued to stay hot. At Triple-A, he has a .371/.436/.543 slash line across nine games and 39 plate appearances.
 
The Twins don't really need six outfielders on the 25 man roster, and especially not with the talent embedded among their starting trio. That said, there's really no infield options that make sense here. It's too late for Nick Gordon as Sano isn't far off, and there aren't any more veteran placeholder types to call upon. This move could be short lived for LaMarre, but he appears to be destined for the 25th spot as of now.
 
Jake Cave replaced by Trevor May
 
While noting that LaMarre's time with the Twins could be short lived, it's also true that Cave could be the guy optioned in about a week. Trevor May is eligible to come off the disabled list on May 28, and every inclination is that he'll be activated that day. Having made starts with both Fort Myers and Rochester, May has been great in his seven innings pitched since returning from Tommy John surgery. The velocity has been there, and he's posted 10 strikes (with 5 walks), giving up just one run on four hits. Yes, he's working as a starter, but I just don't see room right now.
 
Should the Twins tab May for the spot Hughes was occupying in the pen, he can continue to stay stretched out in working as the long man. With the ability to give Garvin Alston two or three innings of work at a time, May provides some nice bullets in relief and also doubles as a fallback option in a spot start scenario.
 
Gregorio Petit replaced by Miguel Sano
 
Just a bit further out than May, Sano's return looms for the Twins. He's yet to play a full nine innings in the field during his three game rehab stint, but that's the next hurdle he'll overcome. There's no doubt he's a big boy, and adding that wrinkle to a hamstring injury doesn't help things. If the malady is behind him though, Minnesota could use that extra thump in their lineup sooner rather than later.
 
Once he's fully cleared, Sano should slide back in at third base moving Eduardo Escobar back to shortstop. It's unfortunate Escobar can't hack it defensively at short like he can at third, but the bat upgrade over Adrianza should be a noticeable one.
 
Matt Magill replaced by Joe Mauer
 
Here's where the dart throws begin in this whole process. First and foremost, we aren't sure when Mauer will be ready to return to the Twins lineup. Going on the DL effective May 19, the Twins first basemen is eligible to return on May 29th. Given his history of concussion related issues, it's far from certain that he'll be cleared in the given 10-day timespan.
 
Ideally, Mauer returns in short order and provides Minnesota the Gold Glove caliber defense they've come to trust at first. It's hard to imagine he'd replace a position player, as the Twins bench would be significantly dwindled in that scenario. With eight relievers, Magill would seem to be the odd man out. He's posted a 1.54 ERA and 7.7 K/9 while owning a great 0.8 BB/9 across his 11.2 IP. A move like this would be just a tough luck situation for the reclamation relief project.
 
TBD replaced by Ervin Santana
 
Call it a cop out, but I'm not ready to put a name on this move. Simply put, the Minnesota Twins have way too many moving parts in the starting rotation to determine who Santana will replace just under a month from now. I'd be shocked to see him before the middle of June, and making his first rehab start this week, he'll need at least three or four good turns to be big league ready.
 
Sure, it's an easy call if things stay like they are now. Lance Lynn being ineffective would bump him to the DL for a time and Santana could slot right in. Fernando Romero having his innings limited and being sent back to Triple-A could be an option. The real answer may have not yet presented itself and there may be an injury that allows Minnesota to have the decision made for them. The only thing worth banking on is that Santana will have a spot when he's ready. Where he slots in remains of little importance.
 
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This is an excerpt of a story that originates on Zone Coverage here. Please click through to read it in full.
 
Mother Nature has a cruel and ironic sense of humor.
 
While the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox had three-quarters of a four-game set turned into a winter wonderland last weekend, it’s going to be a balmy 67 degrees on Monday — just in time for the Twins to open a four-game series with the New York Yankees.
 
In the Bronx, as luck would have it.
 
Postponements mean make-up games, and make-up games mean one of two things — shoehorning the game into an otherwise tight schedule or doubleheaders.
 
The Seattle Mariners postponement from earlier in the week was pushed out to a mutual day off in May, and fortunately means the Twins will get just two days off in the span of eight days instead of three.
 
That’s not too harrowing.
 
The other three games with the White Sox have been scattered throughout the summer, with one coming on June 5, another on Aug. 20 and the final on Sept. 28. The first will be a doubleheader that turns a three-game set into four. The second turns a quick two-game series into a three-game, home-and-home set with Monday at Target Field and Tuesday-Wednesday on the south side of Chicago.
 
The September one is a split doubleheader, though that comes with expanded rosters, so it’s perhaps a bit less worrisome. It also comes with just two more games left in the season; with any luck, the Twins will have their fate decided by then.
 
The White Sox surely will.
 
On the positive side, the Twins have — to this point, anyway — managed to retain their slate of off-days in June. They don’t play a single Monday in the entire month, which for rest purposes is obviously a good thing. But regardless of what happens in the future on the weather front, the Twins are set up well for this kind of thing.
 
Why?
 
Because basically the entire starting rotation at Rochester is on the 40-man roster, and even parts of it trickle down to Chattanooga.
 
Paul Molitor announced on Friday that Phil Hughes will make the team’s first start from a fifth starter on Sunday in Tampa, thus ending a stretch of snow-related serendipity that allowed the Twins to skate by with a long bullpen and just four starters for even longer than originally expected.
 
In addition to Hughes, the Twins have Trevor May and, of course, Ervin Santana on the disabled list with both primed to make contributions at various points this season. You can throw Michael Pineda into that mix if you desire, as well.
 
But at Rochester alone, the Twins have Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns and Fernando Romero who are all on the 40-man roster and available at a moment’s notice. Felix Jorge is in that mix as well, though he’s currently on the disabled list on the Chattanooga roster. It’s unclear where and when he’ll make his season debut, but he pitched not only with the Red Wings but also the Twins last year, so he too is capable of making the jump as a 26th man or an extra arm if the team needs one for a start.

Back on March 10th, I made some tweaks to my initial Minnesota Twins roster project and dubbed it 2.0. Looking back at that entry, it seems near perfect to me, but there's been a few minor tweaks since that point. With Opening Day happening this week, I figured it a good time to put everything down in pen and make a final suggestion as to what Paul Molitor has available in Baltimore.
 
Keeping with the previous theme, I'll include the players from roster projection 2.0 and simply strike-through the names no longer expected to make the club. Minnesota has an exhibition with Washington in D.C. on Tuesday the 27th, and then the games count. Here's who I expect them to open 2018 with:
 
Infielders (9)

Jason Castro C
Mitch Garver C
Ehire Adrianza Util
Brian Dozier 2B
Eduardo Escobar Util
Joe Mauer 1B
Jorge Polanco SS
Eduardo Escobar SS
Miguel Sano 3B
Logan Morrison 1B

This group should have remained the same, but Jorge Polanco failed a PED test and will miss the first 80 games of the season. I don't know that I trust Escobar's glove at short, but hopefully the bat plays with some of that 2017 pop. I do think Polanco's second half surge was more indicative of what he can be capable of producing, so not having that upper level talent will hurt. In the end, Minnesota could end up feeling the loss of Jorge most should the make another appearance in the Postseason.
 
Outfielders (5)
Byron Buxton CF
Robbie Grossman LF/RF
Max Kepler RF
Eddie Rosario LF
Zack Granite OF

There's no losses in this group, but Zack Granite finds himself as an addition. With the removal of Polanco from the 25 man, an additional bench spot opens up. Ideally, I wouldn't pair Granite and Grossman together. Minnesota is left without a true bat on the bench, could use some right-handed flexibility, and Zack is the far superior option when it comes to defense and pinch-running. There's been few waiver wire names of any intrigue, and while that could change, the Twins would need to add from outside if someone is going to unseat Grossman.
 
Pitchers (12)
Jose Berrios SP
Lance Lynn SP
Jake Odorizzi SP
Kyle Gibson SP
Trevor Hildenberger RP
Gabriel Moya RP
Zach Duke RP
Ryan Pressly RP
Addison Reed RP
Fernando Rodney RP
Taylor Rogers RP
Tyler Kinley RP
Phil Hughes RP

Pegging Kinley for a pen sport over Tyler Duffey back in early March turned out to be solid foresight. The Rule 5 draftee is a hard thrower, and Duffey had struggled mightily this spring. He'll head to Triple-A and gives Minnesota a known commodity in a relief or spot start option should they need one early on. The lone change here comes in the form of Phil Hughes. Although it hasn't been an awful spring, Hughes hasn't been particularly good either. The ball has left the yard plenty, and now he conveniently has an oblique strain. Starting the season on the DL seems to be a good bet, and the Twins can slowplay any decision as to whether or not he still belongs in their future plans. Gabriel Moya found himself in jeopardy of being squeezed due to options, but should now round out the pen even with Kinley in the mix.
 
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Yesterday, I started to unveil my top 10 prospects for the Minnesota Twins. In case you did not see that article, here is the rundown...
 
10. Akil Baddoo, OF
9. Blayne Enlow, SP
8. Brusdar Graterol, SP
7. Alex Kirilloff, OF
6. Brent Rooker, OF/1B
 
Here is the rest of the list...
 
5. Wander Javier, SS (2017 team: Elizabethton)
 
Last season was Javier’s first taste of pro baseball in the United States after being a big money International Free Agency signing in 2015. In his first season in the United States, Javier batted .299 with four homers and added 13 doubles. Javier got better down the stretch as well, hitting .368 in the final 13 games of the season. The Twins have an abundance of good shortstop prospects, and Javier is one of them. He will have to improve defensively, as he had a fielding percentage of just .893. It is still early, though, and it will be interesting to see him play on his first full-season team.
 
4. Nick Gordon, SS (2017: Chattanooga)
 
Gordon, another one of the really good shortstop prospects the Twins have, started off extremely well, hitting .308 in the first three months of the season. For his efforts, he was invited to the Future’s Game at the All-Star break. But from there on, he struggled mightily. Gordon ended up batting .270, but showed some pop in his bat, hitting nine homers and a combined 46 extra base hits. Still just 22 years old, he has plenty to work on, including against left-handed pitchers, where he hit only .174. Also, there are questions about whether he can stick at shortstop long-term. He might end up taking over for Brian Dozier at second base if he walks next offseason. Gordon will head back to Chattanooga, looking to correct things he struggled on last year, and if he does well, he could be a September call-up.
 
3. Stephen Gonsalves, SP (2017: Chattanooga, Rochester)
 
Gonsalves started on the DL and missed more than a month. When he did come back, though, he picked up right where he left off. In 2016, Gonsalves was 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA in 13 starts. He made 15 more starts in Tennessee after coming back from the DL and was 8-3 with a 2.68 ERA. Despite having an ERA of nearly a run higher in 2017, he actually had a lower WHIP (1.08 in 2016 compared to 1.03 in 2017). He was promoted in August to Rochester where he an up-and-down five appearances (four starts). In his four starts, he gave up 10 earned runs in 22 innings (4.09 ERA), but he had three nice starts and one that killed his ERA. In a start in Louisville, he gave up six runs in three innings. In the other three starts, he gave up just four runs in 19 innings (1.89 ERA). But in his final appearance, he was roughed up in relief, surrendering four runs in 0.2 innings, which ballooned his final Rochester ERA to 5.56. The southpaw will begin the season in New York, but I think he’ll be in Minneapolis sometime in 2018, maybe even before the All-Star break.
 
2. Fernando Romero (2017 team: Chattanooga)
 
Romero has the most potential to become an ace for the Twins. That became even more evident after his strong spring training performance, throwing eight shutout innings with a microscopic 0.13 WHIP. He struck out eight in his eight innings, as well. The 23-year-old had a great season up until the final 14 innings of the season. That should not be too surprising since he hadn’t surpassed 90 innings in any one season up until 2017, where he logged 125. Overall, Romero finished 11-9 a season ago with an ERA of 3.53 and a 1.35 WHIP, the highest it has been since 2014. His walks per nine innings was also 3.2, and will need to reduce that a bit. Romero will return to Chattanooga for the start of the season, but could pitch in Rochester or even Minneapolis at some point this season. Hopefully he can keep the train rolling from his strong spring training into Chattanooga.
 
1. Royce Lewis, SS (2017 teams: GCL Twins, Cedar Rapids)
 
Last season’s top overall pick, Lewis had a strong start to the season with the GCL Twins before struggling down the stretch. Despite falling to .271 with the GCL Twins, his OPS was still .803, helped by an OBP of .390. The sluggish finish to his stint in the GCL did not keep the Twins from moving him up, skipping Elizabethton and moving all the way up to Cedar Rapids. With the Kernels, he started with a bang, going 4-for-5 in his debut. Overall, in 18 games with the Kernels, he hit .296 with an OPS of .757. With a whole offseason to train for the Kernels, I expect big things from last year’s top overall pick. He’ll start the season in Cedar Rapids, but it would not surprise me to see him in high-A Fort Myers if he plays well in Iowa.
 
So, there are my top 10. As always, feel free to give your opinion...

With the 2018 season right around the corner, perhaps the biggest topic in baseball circles right now is player projections. Whether it is for fantasy purposes, or for trying to predict how your favorite team is going to play this season, people can’t get enough of them. So, I decided to create my own projections for each player on the Twins 40-man roster, and then see how my projections stack up versus some of the other more prominent projection systems.
 
The systems that I used to compare are PECOTA, which is found on Baseball Prospectus, along with ZiPS and Steamer, which can both be found on Fangraphs. Please note that not all of the systems use the same formula when calculating WAR. Additionally, the ZiPS projections for playing time assume a full seasons worth of work, even for players who will most likely spend most of the season in the minor leagues.
 
In the first edition we will be looking at the starting pitchers that are currently on the Twins 40-man roster.
 
RHP Jose Berrios
 


These projection systems are notorious for underrating potential year-to-year improvement from younger players. Personally, I see Jose Berrios taking another step forward in 2018. If Berrios can make this step forward, the Twins could be looking at the potential ACE of their staff.
 
RHP Lance Lynn
 


Much has been made about Lance Lynn’s 3.43 ERA in 2017 being much lower than his peripheral stats suggested it should be that. This explains a lot of low expectations that PECOTA and Steamer have for him. While I do see Lynn taking a step back this year, it is hard to see his ERA inflating by nearly a run and a half, especially from a guy who has never had an ERA above 3.97 in his career.
 
RHP Jake Odorizzi
 


In a very similar way to Lynn, Jake Odorizzi put up an ERA in 2017 that was a fair amount lower than his underlying numbers suggested. A couple factors that lead to this were the spike in his walk rate, which was nearly a walk per nine higher than his career average, and the increase in his HR/FB%, which rose from his 9.9% career average prior to 2017, up to 15.5% in 2017. If Odorizzi can bring these numbers back to his career norms, he should have no problem maintaining his numbers from last season.
 
RHP Ervin Santana
 


Ervin Santana got off to a great start last season, posting a 1.75 ERA through May. However, over the last four months of the season, Santana had an ERA over four. Given Santana’s age and track record, it can be expected that we will see more of the latter from Santana in 2018. The big question mark for Santana entering this season will be his ability to come back from the injury to his pitching hand.
 
RHP Kyle Gibson
 


Kyle Gibson is hoping to build off a strong end to 2017, where he posted a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts of the season. While this could be looked at as a sign of optimism that Gibson has turned a corner, the truth is Gibson benefited from facing weak offenses in those starts, as not one of his 8 opponents ranked higher than 19th in runs scored.
 
RHP Phil Hughes
 


Phil Hughes is viewed at by many as a thorn in the side of the Twins pitching staff. His inability to stay healthy, along with poor performance when he is healthy, have provided a real weak spot for the Twins over the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for the Twins, Hughes is still owed $26.4M over the next two seasons, which is about the only thing guaranteeing him a roster spot as we begin 2018.
 
LHP Adalberto Mejia
 


Adalberto Mejia was a fine pitcher for the Twins last season and looked to be a lock for the Twins rotation entering the winter. However, Mejia fell victim to the surprisingly slow offseason, which enabled the Twins to add two new starters to their rotation. With Mejia’s flexibility, given that he could still be optioned, he has become the odd man out in the Twins rotation. Mejia will most likely serve as the first man called up from AAA when the Twins need a spot start throughout the season, or if they need depth due to injuries.
 
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
 


If there is a minor league pitcher that I expect to breakout this year and help the Twins in 2018 it is Stephen Gonsalves. It is hard to remember the last time that the Twins had a pitching prospect with as high of a floor as Gonsalves. Unlike Mejia, whose opportunities with the big club might mostly be dictated on opportunity, Gonsalves has the ability to force the front office to find a spot for him on the MLB roster if he is pitching well enough in Rochester.
 
RHP Fernando Romero
 


The other minor league candidate that has a real shot of forcing his way into the 2018 Twins rotation is Fernando Romero. Romero was lights out throughout the spring and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. Romero isn’t as refined of a pitcher as Gonsalves quite yet, but he is quickly closing the gap.
 
RHP Aaron Slegers
 


Much like Mejia, Aaron Slegers is another pitcher who was hurt by the Twins additions of both Odorizzi and Lynn. If it wasn’t for that, Slegers would have had an opportunity to serve a bigger role for the Twins this year than he did in 2017. Though, as it stands, it is looking like Slegers will be pegged into the role of a spot starter again this season.
 
RHP Felix Jorge
 


Felix Jorge made a surprise start for the Twins in 2017, after getting called up from AA. After an unsuccessful outing, he was sent back to Chattanooga, where he continued his strong 2017 for the Lookouts. Jorge will most likely spend much of 2018 in Rochester and may get a spot start or two as a September call-up.
 
LHP Dietrich Enns
 


Acquired as part of the trade that sent Jamie Garcia and cash to the Yankees, Dietrich Enns is a pitcher that has had a lot of success at the minor league level, with a 1.88 ERA over 6 career minor league season. Enns will spend most of the season as part of the deep Rochester pitching staff, but if he is pitching well he will be in consideration to receive a spot start or two throughout the season.
 
RHP Zack Littell
 


As the other piece that the Twins received in the Jamie Garcia trade, Zack Littell is a little bit further away from the bigs than Enns. However, at just 22, and 2/3 of a season at AA under his belt, Littell is a pitcher with definite upside for the Twins. Despite this, Littell still remains a long shot to break through with the Twins before September.
 
RHP Lewis Thorpe
 


Lewis Thorpe was surprised himself when the Twins added him to the 40-man roster last November. It is hard to believe that Thorpe will have much of a shot at helping the big-league team in 2018, as he is still working his way back after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with injuries. Thorpe could see a few relief outings for the Twins in September if he stays healthy.

We are close to the beginning of the baseball season, so it is time to release my top 10 prospects for the Minnesota Twins. There are so many prospects who could make a huge jump and knock on the door of the top 10. After losing 2016 first round pick Alex Kirilloff for the whole 2017 season, he will be back. This is a deep prospect list and many could eventually make the big leagues.
 
10) Akil Baddoo, OF (2017 teams: GCL, Elizabethton)
 
Before Terry Ryan was fired, Baddoo was in his last draft class. He is one of two on this list from this class (Kirilloff). After being ranked outside the top 20 Twins prospects, Baddoo had a huge 2017 campaign. After having a batting average of .267 with the GCL Twins, he was promoted to Elizabethton, and he took off. While in Tennessee, he hit .357 and had an OPS of an incredible 1.057. He had 45 hits with Elizabethton in 126 at-bats, and nearly half of his hits (20) were of the extra base variety. In addition to those stats, he had 27 walks and 19 strikeouts with Elizabethton. All that while being more than two years younger than his competition. If he can replicate his play from 2017, he could knock on the door of the top five. The sky is the limit for the 19-year-old.
 
9) Blayne Enlow, SP (2017 team: GCL Twins)
 
After being talked about as a possible first round pick last year, Enlow fell to the third round due to signability, where the Twins grabbed him. There was plenty of buzz surrounding him heading into his debut last summer, and he did not disappoint. In 20.1 innings, Enlow had an ERA of 1.33 and held opponents to a .141 batting average and an OPS of just .433. He also struck out 8.4 per nine, and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.75. Enlow gave up just 4.4 hits per nine and had a WHIP of 0.69. Enlow has a curveball that is the best in the organization and if he can add a bit of velocity, he will sky rocket up prospect lists. The 19-year-old will likely start in Elizabethton, but will be in Cedar Rapids by the end of the year.
 
8. Brusdar Graterol, SP (2017 teams: GCL, Elizabethton)
 
Graterol missed the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, but when he came back in 2017, he picked up right where he left off. In five games with the GCL Twins, he was 2-0 with an ERA of 1.40 and a WHIP of just 0.72 in 19.1 innings. When he was promoted to Elizabethton, he struggled a bit (especially compared to his showing in the GCL). In his 20.2 innings in Tennessee, he had an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.21, but did have a strikeout ratio of 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. With the tougher competition in the Appy League, his control took a dip. After walking just four in 19.1 innings for the GCL Twins, he walked nine in 20.2 innings for Elizabethton. After throwing 85-87 when he signed out of Venezuela, he reaches triple digits now. If he can improve his off-speed pitches to complement his heater, he can be an ace with the Twins.
 
7. Alex Kirilloff (2017: missed season)
 
Kirilloff had a very solid 2016, hitting .306 with seven homers and 33 RBI in 55 games. Not bad for being thrown to Elizabethton after being drafted out of high school. He will likely be a corner outfielder with the big club, but can play center when needed. The reason he was drafted so high is his power. The 20-year-old has a chance to hit 25-30 homers when he develops and ends up in Minneapolis. After playing in Tennessee in 2016, Kirilloff will start in Cedar Rapids on what will most likely be a loaded Kernels lineup.
 
6. Brent Rooker, OF/1B (2017 teams: Elizabethton, Fort Myers)
 
Rooker was selected in the first round by the Twins, and started in Elizabethton and mashed. He started out a bit slow, but finished hitting .282 and an OPS of .952. Of his 24 hits with the E’Town Twins, Rooker crushed seven homers and exactly half of his hits were extra bases. After he was promoted to high-A Fort Myers, he kept smashing. With the Miracle, he hit .280 with 11 more bombs. He had close to the same stats in Florida as he had in Tennessee. The only major dip was in slugging, where he slugged .552 after slugging .588 in Elizabethton. But still, .552 is extremely good. He still strikes out too much, but that is fine when he hits homers at the rate he does. Rooker has the potential to hit 40 homers in the big leagues. The former Mississippi State standout will start in Chattanooga, and if dominates there, I would not be surprised if he ends up in Minneapolis by the end of the season.

The Minnesota Twins reportedly offered Yu Darvish $100 million over four years to be the ace of their starting pitching staff. Instead, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine invested almost the same amount of money in three players who make them better than Darvish could have.
 
This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com.
 
Darvish signed with the Cubs for five years and $126 million guaranteed and for good reason. He’s projected to be worth 2.8 WARP for the Cubs. And the Cubs are one of those teams, along with the Astros, with their championship window wide open. The Twins’ championship window is just opening, but thanks to some clever spending, that window is expected to open up even more for the Twins this season.
 
On March 4, Jim Bowden reported that the Twins would be unlikely to sign any of the top remaining free agent starters on the market, including Lance Lynn, who declined a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in the amount of $17.4 million. Six days later the Twins signed Lynn for one year at $12 million. Lynn called the two-year, $12-million offer from the Twins “non-starter” just days earlier, but a lack of long-term offers with Spring Training in full swing made a one-year deal worth $12 million look pretty good for a pitcher entering his second season removed from Tommy John surgery.
 
Overnight, according to Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections, the Twins went from 82 wins and out of the playoffs to 83 wins and in. But despite an appearance in the American League Wild Card game last season, the Twins were projected as a .500 team prior to spending the money they had reserved for Darvish.
 
In another affordable surprise, Falvey and Levine scored free agent first baseman and designated hitter Logan Morrison for one year and $5.5 million. Morrison hit a career high 38 home runs last season -- good for 2.8 WARP. He’s been projected to be worth one win more than a replacement player.
 
The Twins wouldn’t have likely traded for Jake Odorizzi had they landed Darvish, either. He’s been projected to be worth .7 wins above a replacement player at a measly $6.3 million this season and is still eligible for arbitration next year. Add it all up and you’ll find Morrison, Odorizzi and Lynn to be worth just a tenth of a win less than Darvish at $1.2 million less than the Twins were willing to pay Darvish.
 
Consider the 1.2 wins added by the combination of Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, and you not only have a playoff-bound roster, but a formidable playoff foe that can shock an American League divisional champion. Remember, they could get Michael Pineda back for the playoffs. They’re paying him just $2 million this season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
 
If Jose Berrios becomes the ace arm the Twins expect entering the playoffs, they’ll have a starting pitcher who can win them a Wild Card game. And even if he isn’t the ace the Twins expect, Ervin Santana or Lance Lynn could win that game.
 
The Twins’ rotation can now hang with anyone in a five- or seven-game series. A playoff rotation of Santana, Berrios, Lynn and Odorizzi can finally hang with the Yankees’ Tanaka, Severino, Gray and Sabathia or the Astros’ Keuchel, Verlander, Cole and McCullers.
 
The Twins are going to be one of the top three teams in runs scored with the addition of Morrison. They were second in runs scored in the second half last year without Morrison. They’re also going to be one of the top three defensive teams in baseball, which will make Lynn, Odorizzi, Reed and Rodney very happy to be in Minnesota.
Falvey and Levine won the offseason for the Twins. They recognized the perceived values of free agents were inflated for whatever reason -- whether it be collusion or analytical analism -- and they were rewarded for not overpaying Darvish. They managed to do all this without adding a single contract beyond 2019.
 
The Twins enter the season with a franchise-record payroll around $130 million, but will have just under $56 million on the books entering the epic offseason that will likely feature free agents Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz, Charlie Blackmon, Dallas Keuchel, Zach Britton, Cody Allen, Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Miller.

Impatience is a natural tendency. That’s especially true for fans of a team that, despite making the postseason last year, had obvious flaws.
 
So in a sense, it was understandable when Minnesota Twins fans were annoyed that the team came home from the winter meetings just before Christmas with a 40-year-old closer and a broken down starter who gives up too many homers.
 
Little did they know what would lie ahead for the winter. In fact, it was another month before the Twins did anything substantive.
 
For Twins fans though, it was worth the wait.
 
From that point on, the Twins have made the following moves:

Jan. 13 – Signed Addison Reed (two years, $16.75 million)
Feb. 16 – Signed Anibal Sanchez (one year, $2.5 million*)
Feb. 17 – Traded for Jake Odorizzi
Feb. 25 – Signed Logan Morrison (one year, $5.5 million)
March 10 – Signed Lance Lynn (one year, $12 million)

 
*since released with a payment of under $500k
 
In the span of just under two months, the regime of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine added four significant players as well as a taken a flyer on a has-been. That’s not meant to be a slight on Sanchez, either; it’s certainly better to be a has-been rather than a never-was. Those types have been all too familiar on the roster in recent seasons.
 
It’s hard to know how early the Twins brass saw that this would be a slow-developing market, but they stayed away from two key tenets that we see a lot of fans cling to:

Address your biggest weaknesses first
Address your weaknesses quickly

By waiting out the early wave of free agency, the Twins managed to beef up their roster impressively while remaining on a strict budget. That’s not to say that these players couldn’t have provided value at much higher contract prices, but when given the choice between paying sticker price or waiting for a markdown, executives — and especially owners — are going to pick the latter.
 
As a brief aside, we don’t want this to sound like we support the system depression of contract values in an effort to maximize profits for ownership. We aren’t here to bang the drum for owners — directly or indirectly — but rather are hoping this is a market correction that exchanges long deals that frequently become albatrosses for perhaps shorter deals with higher average annual values.
 
For instance, if Bryce Harper signed next offseason for five years and $200 million ($40m per, but only through his age-30 season), as opposed to 15 years and say…..$450 million ($30m per, but through his age-40 season). That could theoretically be the happy medium between the bottom falling completely out of the market — Let’s be honest, Neil Walker for $5 million and year? That’s ridiculous — and the contracts that feature extremely player-friendly opt-outs like those in the deals of Jason Heyward (not great!) and Giancarlo Stanton (probably fine, but the Yankees get all the downside risk).
 
With that said, the Twins are slated to — assuming they’re finished shopping — head into the regular season with a payroll of $126.576 million according to Cot’s Contracts on Baseball Prospectus. That’s a new club record.
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read the rest of the story.

Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained?? After years of luke-warm stove off seasons the new front office has made their mark on the roster by signing five players to the big league roster who are ready and able to contribute on opening day. Add to that the trade for Jake Odorizzi and you’re talking nearly 25% of the 25 man roster acquired this off season from outside the team.
 
What is particularly stunning about these additions is the money which was spent on acquiring the players. While the latest additions, Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison appear to be team friendly deals, Lynn will still be the 4th highest paid player on the roster in 2018 and Morrison the 9th. Call is savvy management, or call it bargain hunting, these guys will command a healthy share of the Twins payroll in 2018.
 
In fact, if you look at the 2018 Base Salaries of the five free agents the Twins signed, plus the $2M paid to Michael Pineda in 2018, the total ($34M) is the fourth highest for 2018 salaries paid behind only the Phillies ($56M), Cubs ($53M) and Rockies ($42.3M). Surprised? I was. And what is even more impressive is that these short term deals will allow the front office to continue to have roster flexibility into the future, particularly when the likes of Hughes and Mauer come off the books.
 
After all the dust settles, it looks as though the Twins opening day payroll will be right around $130M. While this is an increase of about 24% over 2017’s opening day number, it puts the Twin’s only right around the median of all MLB teams in terms of total payroll.
 
And how do we feel about being in the middle of the pack for payroll? I’ll take it. Particularly when the front office appears to be adding players in a smart way, to what is already a solid roster of young talent.

Back on February 27 I took a first look at what the Minnesota Twins 25 man roster may look like on Opening Day. Now roughly halfway through spring training, and with some roster changes to boot, it's time to take another stab at what Paul Molitor will have at his disposal in Baltimore. You can read the original projection here, but changes will also be reflected below.
 
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have definitely outdone Minnesota offseasons of recent memory, and coming off a Postseason berth, they had plenty of incentive to supplement an up and coming squad. This club looks like it's going to make noise in both the Central and the American League as a whole. No matter where you look, there isn't a lot of obvious deficiencies in any of the positional groups.
With that groundwork laid, let's get into it:
 
Infielders (9)
Jason Castro C
Mitch Garver C
Ehire Adrianza Util
Brian Dozier 2B
Eduardo Escobar Util
Joe Mauer 1B
Jorge Polanco SS
Miguel Sano 3B
Logan Morrison 1B

This group remains the exact same. I'm still operating under the belief that Miguel Sano starts the season with the Twins. A suspension seems increasingly unlikely, and all spring indications have suggested his health is in a good place. Erick Aybar remains the fallback option if Sano isn't penciled in however. This group is very good, will be the backbone of the lineup, and was only aided by the inclusion of another slugger in Morrison.
Outfielders (4)
Byron Buxton CF
Robbie Grossman LF/RF
Max Kepler RF
Eddie Rosario LF

If it were up to me, I'd prefer Robbie Grossman be replaced by Zack Granite. As a fourth outfielder, Granite does significantly more for Minnesota than Grossman is able to. His speed is an asset off the bench, and he's well above average defensively. There's a slight downgrade in on-base skills with Granite, but that's still something his track record in the minors categorizes as an asset. With options remaining though, it's hard to see the Twins simply casting aside Grossman from the get go. They could make the move at any point, and from the start, seems best reasoned that they'll stick with the veteran.
 
Pitchers (12)
Jose Berrios SP
Lance Lynn SP
Jake Odorizzi SP
Kyle Gibson SP
Trevor Hildenberger RP
Phil Hughes RP
Zach Duke RP
Ryan Pressly RP
Addison Reed RP
Fernando Rodney RP
Taylor Rogers RP
Tyler Kinley RP
Adalberto Mejia SP
Tyler Duffey RP

With the recent addition of Lance Lynn, it's the pitchers where the most shuffling takes place for the Twins. Molitor has noted the club intends to go with a four-man rotation until Ervin Santana returns, which makes sense. That means Phil Hughes is pushed out of the group, and aside from a DL stint or DFA, he's destined for long relief. All spring, Minnesota has talked about stretching Tyler Duffey out and looking at him as a starter again. Given where things are currently, and with Duffey having an option remaining, a trip to Rochester doesn't seem that unlikely. It would get Rule 5 pick Tyler Kinley on the 25 man, and save the Twins from having to make an immediate trade with Miami in order to retain his rights. Taking the trip to Rochester with Duffey would be Mejia. He's probably the first man up among starters, and gives the Twins an added layer of depth before needing to call upon Fernando Romero or Stephen Gonsalves.
 
Glancing at this group, I think it's pretty clear that the 2017 areas of concern have been addressed, and 2018 should be a bright year for the guys at Target Field.
 
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Coming into spring training 2018, there were two key names on the mound when it came to up and coming Twins prospects. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero were the guys to watch, and thus far, they’ve both been appointment viewing. For Romero, the ceiling is that of a big league ace, and thus far he’s done little to dispel that notion.
It’s hard to glean much from such an incredibly small sample size, but the process is just as imperative as the results. First by the numbers, Romero has appeared in three games pitching a total of five innings. He’s tallied six strikeouts, given up zero hits, and has walked just one batter. If that were stretched out over a considerable amount of any given season, he’d be staring at the business end of a Cy Young award and some big league records.
As it stands, the numbers are just a small flash in the pan allowing Twins fans to dream of what could one day be. That being said, it was his latest outing that might have been the most promising and indicative of the ceiling those within the organization hope he reaches. Against the Phillies in Clearwater on March 5, Romero worked the bottom of the 7th inning facing Dylan Cozens, Roman Quinn, and Pedro Florimon (all big league bats). Starting out at 94 mph with his fastball, he topped out at 96 mph on his 19th offering of the inning. Striking out the trio swinging, Quinn and Florimon flailed at sliders biting their heels after facing straight heat. The outing included 21 pitches, 15 of which were strikes, 88 mph sliders, and 96 mph fastballs.
Over the course of those 21 pitches thrown to three Phillies batters, Romero showed exactly why he’s viewed as a top of the rotation arm. The velocity was there, the breaking pitches were devastating, the efficiency in the zone was displayed, and a mound presence well beyond his years was apparent. If every outing went like that one, Romero would find himself paired with Jose Berrios as a one-two punch for Minnesota out of the gate in 2018.
When it comes to the greater picture, Romero’s deficiencies lie where many like him find fault. Reaching Double-A Chattanooga for the first time last season as a 22 year old, command issues returned for the first time since his Tommy John surgery in 2014. Striking out 8.6 per nine across his 125.0 IP, he also allowed 3.2 BB/9. In 2016, his first season back from the surgery, Romero had sat down hitters at a 9.0 K/9 clip and walked just 1.5 per nine over 90.1 IP at two levels. If there’s an area of focus for the 2018 season, it will be in seeing how the free passes add up.
Looking back on his time as a pro, Romero has never been bit hard by the home run bug, and he’s generally kept his H/9 numbers to a minimum. As he continues to rise levels, potentially starting at Double-A Chattanooga to open 2018, seeing refinement in some integral areas will be a consistent focus. It’s in how the development with command and control shakes out that will eventually determine if Romero can assume a spot at the top of the rotation, or if he’s destined for a relief role.
At the end of spring training, it would be a virtual shock to see Romero break the 25 man headed up to Minnesota. The Twins would most likely prefer he break into the big leagues as a starter, and while he could see time first in a relief role, that coming directly out of spring seems incredibly unlikely. That being said, the clock has absolutely begun to tick, and there will be knocks on the major league door sooner rather than later.
Outside of the player acquisitions this offseason, pitching guru Derek Falvey has developed an infrastructure that should foster internal development. Task number one will be unlocking the highest possible percentile of Fernando Romero, and if achieved, could mean the Twins have the ace they’ve been craving since the days of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano.
 
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State of the Twins - Starting Rotation


 
 
Baseball is back. Pitchers and catchers have reported to the Twins Spring Training site in Fort Myers, along with a sprinkling of position players - including Joe Mauer, who we can only suspect is in "the best shape of his life" at this point in his career. All jokes aside, the 2018 season is just around the corner and it doesn't come without some question marks, most notably, the state of the starting rotation.
 
If you're a regular to Twins Daily, or follow the Twins social media outlets, Ervin Santana's injured finger will put him on the shelf for 10-12 weeks and has been widely reported. Santana, 2017 Twins Opening Day starter and All Star, will likely miss the entire opening month of the 2018 season while recovering from this injury. By my estimation, that would put breakout star from the 2017 season Jose Berrios in line for the Opening Day start and the defacto number one starting pitcher to start the year.
 
With few "locks" in the rotation, Santana, Berrios and Kyle Gibson likely being the only three starters guaranteed a starting spot, that leaves a quandary for the remaining two starting jobs - and in all reality, with Santana's injury, 3 starting jobs.
 
The Twins entered the post season with the goal of addressing a few areas, starting pitching and the bullpen being of primary concern. While they addressed the bullpen - Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke being added via free agency this winter, the only starting pitcher add was Michael Pineda. While I love the addition of Pineda - I believe there could be a huge potential for value there, post-Tommy John for the former Yankee/Mariner - he is not projected to be available until late summer, perhaps even September at the earliest. So, for all intents and purposes, his 2 year deal is focused on potential value in the 2019 season and perhaps the 2018 playoffs.
 
The Twins primary target in this offseason free agent market, Yu Darvish, signed a 6 year/ $126 Million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs. Reportedly the Twins were not willing to extend an offer past 5 years, and while it hasn't been confirmed (to my knowledge) I assume the AAV offered by the Twins was comparable to what he received from the Cubs. I won't beat a dead horse, at this point Darvish is off the table, and while I personally felt the Twins should have done everything feasible to sign Darvish (including a 6th year, opt out clause, no trade/limited no trade, incentives, etc.) I, obviously, am not privy to the details of what the Twins offered. Read: Twins may have done all of that, Darvish may have just preferred Chicago over everyone else.
 
So, where does that leave us? Well, there was always an opportunity for in-house competition for the 5th starting pitching spot, we'll start there. Phil Hughes, off of his second rib surgery, will be in the mix, along with a post-Tommy John Trevor May. Among those who had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, Aaron Slegers and probably to a lesser extent Felix Jorge, and exciting young pitchers Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Zach Littell. Adalbuerto Mejia, who had a fairly up and down 2017, also projects to be competing for a spot - he would be the lone left hander in the rotation, with his experience in 2017 and flashes of ability, I expect him to be among the favorites.
 
The Twins have expressed interest in a few of the remaining free agent pitchers left on the market, including Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb - and also have been loosely connected to Jake Arrieta, though Lavelle E. Neil reported the chances of signing Arrieta were "remote". I would dare say by remote, he means 'snowballs chance in Hades'. I've been wrong before, though. They have also been reportedly interested in the next tier of free agent pitchers - Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and (I hope its a 'take a flier' kind of interest...) Chris Tillman.
 
Any of those starting pitchers would improve the depth of the starting rotation, only Arrieta would truly provide anything more than a "number 3" type pitcher. Even so, Arrieta at this point in his career, mileage on his arm and truly Phil Hughesian decrease in velocity from 2016 to 2017 (both had a decrease in FB velocity of 2 MPH) he slots better as a number 2 starter. Optimally, signing both Lynn and Cobb to free agent contracts would solidify a Twins rotation. Arrieta would likely require as much, or more, money to sign than Lynn and Cobb combined - he reportedly turned down a Cubs offer that matched or close to matching the $126 Million they gave Darvish, also he is represented by Scott Boras. Signing any of the Garcia-Hammel-Vargas tier would be a solid move for depth in the back end of the rotation, all are very capable of being serviceable 4/5's.
 
Aside from free agency, the Twins offered a formal trade package to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer. Its hard to say how serious the offer was, or what was included - much speculation had Max Kepler as a primary piece - but Archer is probably the most sought after trade target in baseball. I would suspect any offer the Twins made that didn't include Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios was probably a non-starter for the Rays - that said, including any of those names for the Twins would be... well it would be very, very stupid. Jake Odorizzi is also on the Twins radar. I, personally am not excited to part with any highly regarded prospect for Odorizzi, and certainly not for Max Kepler.
 
Potential targets for the Twins could include pitchers Colin McHugh (Astros), Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sean Manaea (A's), among several others. Stroman is more or less in the same boat as Archer, it would take a very solid offer (and a crowbar) to pry him from the Blue Jays. McHugh, in all fairness this pick was inspired by conversation had by Brandon Warne and Ryan Turnquist on their 'Locked on Twins' podcast, may be the odd man out of the rotation/swing-man situation in Houston - he might be a great under the radar pickup in trade. Fangraphs projections actually have him putting up better ERA/FIP and K/9 numbers in 2018 than all current projected Twins starters. Julio Teheran is another interesting target, and I plan on elaborating more on both him and McHugh in a later article.
 
Thank you to all who made it to the end, I appreciate every reader. My intention here on Twins Daily is to upload at least one blog article a week on various topics Twins related, and if you have any suggestions, thoughts or comments please feel free to share them! I can also be found on Twitter @four_six_three if you enjoy more Twins related topics!
 
 
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As we sit here the night before the first Pitchers and Catchers workout for the Minnesota Twins, the starting rotation is at best...uh, incomplete? Ervin Santana's surprising injury news last week left the Twins with basically only two "locks" to break camp at the end of March. Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. As it stands, the last three spots will have to come from a combination of Adalberto Meija, Phil Hughes, Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns, Stephen Gonsalves, and Fernando Romero. The latter two have 4 combined starts in AAA. You may be asking yourself: What is a Dietrich Enns? (Twins received him in the Jaime Garcia trade last season). I thought Phil Hughes retired? (I wish). While the thought of a top prospect contributing at the Major League level right away is enticing, the Twins are probably best suited to let them develop.
 
Adding 1 or better yet, TWO, starters no doubt helps this team try to get back to the postseason in 2018. Yu Darvish signing with the Cubs on Saturday left Twins fans shattered, as their #1 option went off the board. This leaves Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb as the top remaining free agents. While there are many blogs that have speculated on how those three would contribute to the team, I will be focusing on the Twins trade options.
 
Chris Archer
Age: 29
Contract status: Signed thru 2019. Team option in ‘20 & ‘21 (AAV $8.415mil)
162 gm Average: 3.63 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 204 IP, 9.7 K/9, 1.214 WHIP
 
Immediately after the Darvish news broke over the weekend, Twins fans began clamoring on Twitter to trade for Chris Archer. It is without question Archer would improve this team but at what cost? Thad Levine stated earlier today that "The prospect of kind of weakening one part of your team to strengthen another is not appealing." He was of course speaking in reference to the Major League 25 man roster. As recently as two weeks ago, the Twins offered a trade for Chris Archer. The package was believed to include Max Kepler. With how favorable Archer’s contract is, the prospect of the Rays building a new stadium, and having several young prospects graduating through their system, they are not in any urgency to get rid of him. A package of Kepler, Nick Gordon (#8 prospect via Baseball America), and Gonsalves (#4 prospect) would most likely not be enough to lure him away. Look at as recently as last season’s Chris Sale trade. It took the Red Sox’s #1 prospect (and #1 prospect in all of baseball) Yoan Moncada, plus Michael Kopech (Boston’s #5 prospect) and two others. The bar has been set. If I were the Rays, my price for Archer starts at either Byron Buxton or Royce Lewis. Seeing as those may be untouchable for the Twins front office, a deal for Archer is unlikely...onto the next option.
 
Jake Odorizzi
Age: 27
Contract status: Arb eligible ‘18 & ‘19
162 gm Average: 3.83 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 188 IP, 8.2 K/9, 1.219 WHIP
 
At 27 years old with two years to go before he is a free agent (2020 season), Odorizzi would be a clear upgrade to this rotation. Most likely slotting in right behind Santana & Berrios. Relying mostly on his low 90’s fastball (thrown 48% of the time) and his splitter (23%) to generate swings and misses, Odorizzi has had plenty of success getting American League hitters out. However, both the fastball and splitter have led to more fly balls due to the way Odorizzi mechanics work. His slight armside run and the way he releases the ball create more backspin than most pitchers. He allowed 30 home runs last year. For a right handed pitcher, he has had good success keeping left handed hitters at bay, something Twins pitchers (especially Jose Berrios) struggled with in 2017. Lefties hit just .210 off him with an OPS of .686. He was much improved over the second half of the year with an ERA of 3.47 (first half of 4.63), a K/9 of 8.3, and only 10 homers allowed (20 allowed in first half). That is encouraging to see. It remains to be seen what the market for Odorizzi will be. With only two years remaining of team control, he should fetch at least 2 solid MLB prospects. Cubs, Yankees, Brewers, and Twins have all been connected to Odorizzi in the last week. As a comparison, Gerrit Cole was traded for MLB ready Joe Musgrove and former first round pick Colin Moran plus two additional minor leaguers. Cole is at a higher level than Odorizzi and to some, gathered an underwhelming return. If that is the bar, maybe it wouldn’t take too much for the Twins to pry Odorizzi away?
 
Collin McHugh
Age: 30
Contract status: Arb in ‘18 & ‘19
162 gm Average: 3.70 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 195 innings, 8.4 K/9, 1.253 WHIP
 
Like Odorizzi, McHugh would likely slot behind Big Erv and Berrios in the Twins rotation. A serviceable and reliable starting pitcher who threw healthy workloads for the Astros from 2014-16. Last year, he dealt with some arm issues that limited him to 63 innings. A “posterior impingement of his right elbow” led to shutting him down before the season even began. He rebounded for a solid campaign over 12 starts with a 3.55 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. He only threw 6 innings out of the bullpen last year for the World Champion, Houston Astros. With the addition of Gerrit Cole, the Astros have a bit of a logjam in their rotation. McHugh might be the odd-man out. He has already been rumored in trade discussions, notably with the Orioles. McHugh throws a low 90’s fastball and relies heavily on his curveball (thrown 20% of the time) and in 2017 developed a slider which he used 17% of the time. His slider clocks in at at 83mph and was very successful in a short period of time. Opposing hitters only batted .138 off it, with one homer allowed. A kudos to Astros pitching coach, Brent Storm for the help with that one. What this new pitch means for 2018, only time will tell. It’s hard to see McHugh taking another step at the age of 30. At this point he is what he is. With the Astros seemingly OK entering 2018 with McHugh in their bullpen and an emergency option for the rotation, there isn’t a lot of urgency to move him. If the Twins were willing, I am sure a solid low level prospect (Lewis Thorpe?) combined with a mid-tier minor league player would be enough to get a deal completed.
 
With the Twins internal options less than ideal, it seems the best option will be 1) Sign a free agent and 2) trade for one of these three pitchers. The best case scenario would be a combination of both.
 
There is not doubt Odorizzi and McHugh plus Cobb/Lynn help this team immensely in 2018 and give them a great opportunity to close the gap with the Cleveland Indians in the AL central. There is the issue however that adding two new pitchers could have an effect on the 2019 season. The Twins will add Michael Pineda to the mix. Additionally, Gonsalves/Romero should be ready. Plus don’t forget about Trevor May. None of those are a given and “too many starting pitchers” is never a bad problem to have.
 
But the focus right now is the present. Without a real “ace” the Twins will have to rely on several #2 and #3 starters to get the job done. Already possessing a top 10 offense, upgraded bullpen and above average defense, the Twins would be poised to make a run back to the playoffs. Not making an addition is inexcusable. I do think the Twins do something, but how far do they go?
 
So let me hear you Twins fans: What are your opinions on trading for a starter?

It's back, baseball is finally back. On February 13 the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, and the club will hold it's first workout on Valentine's Day. With position players largely following them, and expected to arrive en masse shortly, it's time to take a look at a few storylines worth monitoring over the exhibition slate.
 
Coming off of a Postseason berth, and a Wild Card appearance, Paul Molito's squad is looking for an opportunity to take the next step. With the young core another year older, they should be expected to carry an even larger part of the load. While results can be scrutinized and picked apart in Grapefruit League action, it's what takes place beyond the box score that's generally the most telling. Those scenarios are what highlight the early slate, and that's what we'll take a look at below:
 
Does Kennys Vargas survive the roster crunch?
 
Currently slotted in as the backup first basemen and rotational bench bat, Vargas is out of options for the Minnesota Twins. The power stroke is very real for Vargas, but he's fallen a bit short when putting it all together. After an .833 OPS across 47 sporadic games in 2016, Vargas dipped back to a .758 OPS across 78 sporadic outings in 2017. In 2018, it's do or die time, but it may already be too late.
 
You have to go back to 2015 to find what I think may be a turning point in Vargas' production. After making the roster out of the gate, Vargas slumped mightily through April. In 12 games from May 1-17 though, he put forth a .956 OPS and was among Minnesota's hottest hitters. With just two homers through that time period however, Terry Ryan set him back to Triple-A searching for power. Since that point, Vargas has seemed to settle in, and his opportunities have been limited at best. In a reserve role, his bat has to be consistently ready to go, and the glove needs work. Right now, the Twins probably don't have anyone ready to come in and take his job, but it's hardly a given that they don't find a suitor by the end of March.
 
Grossman, Granite, or your best guess?
 
Looking at how the 25 man is shaping up from a 1,000 foot view right now, it appears Minnesota will carry just four true outfielders. With Robbie Grossman being extended a new contract for 2018, he's the front runner for the designated hitter and rotational outfield role. While his performance wasn't abysmal in the grass a season ago, 2016 could rear it's head at any moment. There's no doubt that the position is Grossman's to lose, but the emergence of other names is a real possibility.
 
On the 40 man roster, only Zack Granite is on the outside looking in among the outfield group. His .611 OPS in his first 40 MLB games leaves plenty to be desired, but should also be expected to rise. At the minor league level, Granite was an average hitter, and also an on-base asset. Postin a .347 OBP at Double-A, and a .392 OBP last season at Triple-A, his speed was allowed to be unleashed on the basepaths. Grossman has more pop than Granite does, but expecting Zack to contribute at a similar OBP level is hardly a reach. The dark horse in this competition is LaMonte Wade, and while he has yet to play above Double-A, he could make a big leap sooner rather than later.
 
Rotation, staff, and the Alston advantage.
 
At this moment, the Twins have yet to address their most glaring need of the offseason, a starting pitcher. By the time the team breaks from Fort Myers, I expect that scenario to have been handled. The Twins will be rolling with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, an acquisition, and a question mark when the regular season opens. The 5th spot in the rotation is up for grabs, and while Phil Hughes' contract will afford him first crack, the emergence of Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or a host of other names would be welcomed competition.
 
The bullpen has been shored up, and Addison Reed was one of the best gets of the offseason across the entire landscape of the league. New pitching coach Garvin Alston will begin to put his philosophies on display both in game and off the field of play. Watching the bullpen take shape, as well as its usage and construction will be worth monitoring. As the Twins seek more strikeouts, and a pitching staff that climbs the league ladder, it will be extremely important for Alston to make a more significant mark than his predecessor.
 
Homegrown gems making their mark.
 
Each year, there seems to be a few players that come in without a big league job, that end up leaving a lasting impression. Looking at the group of 13 non-roster invitees for 2018, there's a trio of homegrown prospects that have me intrigued.
 
Starting on the mound, you have to look at reliever Jake Reed. The hard thrower was left unprotected and went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. He has the makings of a strikeout reliever with strong velocity, and an ability to kick the door in to the highest level. He got just 4.0 IP during spring training last year allowing four runs on six hits with a 3/2 K/BB ratio. His season also started with an injury occurred during the last game in Fort Myers. A strong showing could put him right back on the radar for an early season promotion.
 
In the infield, you look no further than former 1st round pick Nick Gordon. Heavily scrutinized as a shortstop, Gordon has yet to be pushed over to second base. He'll get his first real big league test in March this year, and should spend the majority of the season at Triple-A. After a hot start at Double-A, his season took a dive down the stretch and he posted a .749 OPS when things were said and done. How he handles big league pitching this spring, as well as what he shoes with the glove, could go a long ways to give us an idea of what and how he'll contribute for the Twins.
 
Wrapping up the group is a guy behind the plate that deserves more attention, Brian Navarreto. While the bat has lagged significantly for the 2013 6th round pick, he's been great as a defender. Across 127 stolen base attempts in his 290 games behind the dish in the minors, he's thrown out a ridiculous 50% of runners. Regarded as a strong receiver and a trustworthy game manager, Navrreto will get a chance to showcase his worth as a potential big league backup down the road.
 
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Kintzler, Duffey, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Hughes, Hildenberger, Gee, Boshers, Busenitz, Breslow, Tonkin, Haley, Turley, Slegers, Wilk, Curtiss, Wimmers, Moya, Perkins, Rucinski, Enns, Melville, Wheeler, Rosario, Tepesch, Heston, and Chris Gimenez. These are the 27 pitchers and one intrepid catcher who made up the Twins relief pitching corps in 2017. By sheer volume alone, the Twins bullpen left a lot to be desired in 2017. There were some bright spots. Brandon Kintzler, who departed to the Nationals via trade, was excellent. Trevor Hildenberger, whose unique approach should make him a staple of the Twins bullpen for the foreseeable future, emerged as a potential bullpen star. The rest of the pen was about as effective as a Matt Asiata run up in middle from inside the five yard line. So where did the Twins stack up against other bullpens when the 2017 season was all said and done?
 
2017 Bullpen Performance
Just for the sake of comparison, the Yankees, whose relievers threw an arsenal of sonic-boom inducing fastballs that blew the Twins straight out of the wild card game, used 19 relief pitchers last season. The Dodgers, who had an exceptional bullpen, also used 19. While the number of relievers used is hardly an important metric, it is indicative of a contrast in stability in some of MLB’s top bullpens, and that of the Twins.
 
Minnesota’s bullpen pen logged the tenth most innings of any bullpen in 2017 (looking at you Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia), struck out the fifth fewest hitters (482), and walked the seventh fewest number of hitters (187). Tale as old as time, right? So far, we’ve established that the pen was overworked, didn’t walk many guys, and didn’t strike a lot out either. What about when opposing hitters made contact? The Twins had a significant issue here, giving up the fourth worst Hard% (hard contact percentage) and generating the second worst Soft% (soft contact percentage, significant because there’s a medium contact %) in the league. Essentially, when the Twins gave up contact to opposing hitters, they made a lot of good contact. The Twins bullpen performance in 2017 was actually similar to 2016 (a difference of 0.1 in bullpen WAR), accomplished in a very different way. In short, the pen needed a significant overhaul before the 2018 season. In an organization with a strong offensive lineup and in a market where high level starting pitching is difficult to attract via free agency, the bullpen was the lowest hanging fruit for the Twins front office to attack during free agency.
 
What was Missing?
So what was the Twins bullpen lacking? One area the Twins pen did improve in 2017 was generating groundballs, improving from 23rd in MLB in 2016, to 12th in 2017. This is an area of strength the Twins chose to build upon in 2018, adding Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney to one year deals. In Duke’s last full season before injury, he logged a GB% of 58%, which is elite. Rodney wasn’t too shabby himself, generating GB% of 52% in 2017.
 
Looking at the most effective bullpens of 2017, an even more integral stat is K/9. This makes a ton of sense, not much can go wrong if you’re striking hitters out on a consistent basis. In 2017, there were 9 teams with a bullpen K/9 of at least 9.5. Between them, these clubs averaged a WAR of 6.5 for their bullpen. The Twins bullpen WAR in 2017 was 2.2, not a disaster, good for 22nd in MLB. By K/9, the Twins ranked 29th, with just 7.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Hardly surprising, when you are cycling through nearly 30 relievers over the course of the season. So how do the Twins new additions stack up in generating more strikeouts?
 
In short, pretty darn well. If you average out the K/9 for Duke, Rodney, and Reed over their last two full seasons of pitching (excluding years significantly impacted by injury), they sit at an average K/9 of 10.00. That’s the kind of strikeout power you want sitting at the back end of your bullpen, particularly if you throw Hildenberger’s 2017 K/9 of 9.43 into the mix too. While past performance isn’t necessarily a good indicator of future results, this is certainly an encouraging trend in remedying a weakness Twins fans have bemoaned, and has impeded the team for years.
 
Apples and Oranges?
The Twins additions are even more interesting if considered in comparison to another team attempting to ramp up the quality of their bullpen, the Rockies. Colorado spent a Ron Swanson-esque ‘all of the money’ on adding Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw this offseason. The Rockies added their relief upgrades for a cost of $30.5 million in 2018. The Twins, by contrast, added Duke, Rodney, and Reed for around $14.65 million in 2018, or around $1.5 million less than it took the Rockies to sign Davis alone for a single year. The average of the Rockies additions K/9 over their last two full seasons pitched is 9.39. While they offer more consistency than a back end containing an ageing Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke returning from Tommy John surgery, the comparison is striking.
 
There are two more avenues which make this comparison interesting. When looking at the cumulative WAR of the three new relief pitching options for each team over the last two seasons, the Twins trio contributed 6.3 WAR, to the Rockies triumvirates 5.2. While WAR has been put through the ringer in the baseball writing community recently, it is, if nothing else, a useful starting point for a comparison.
 
Perhaps the Rockies new additions were so much more highly paid because they pitched in higher leverage situations, earning the moniker of ‘super-reliever’ for their respective 2017 teams? WPA (Win Probability Added) examines changes in win probability and reflects how much a player impacted their team’s chances of winning a game. Duke, Rodney and Reed combined for a WPA of 6.08 in their last full season pitched (using 2016 for Duke as 2017 was lost to injury), compared to Davis, McGee, and Shaw’s combined 5.52 in 2017. While the majority of WPA and WAR added for each team was bound up in Reed for the Twins and Davis for the Rockies, comparing the additions in groups of three offers a glimpse at what their cumulative impact on their new teams might be in 2018 in the highest leverage situations each team will face.
 
This is not to say the Twins signed three better guys than the Rockies, but for a team with their bottom line, they added a significant amount of upside for excellent value, in an area that badly needed to be addressed. As a smaller market team, the Twins don’t have the luxury not to consider short and long term viability when balancing the upside of their free agent signings with the cost it takes to sign them. While the Twins likely won’t have one of the top bullpens in MLB next year, consider the floor significantly raised. If Rodney, Duke, and Reed can maintain a similar level of performance, the Twins will have a much improved pen, cemented by a particularly strong back end that closes the gap between Minnesota and Cleveland.

The Twins made an unexpected addition to their burgeoning bullpen over the weekend, adding former Mets and Red Sox reliever Addison Reed on a two-year pact worth $16.75 million. The deal profiles well for the Twins on a number of fronts. At 29, Reed is at the younger end of a relief pitching market deep in high quality back end bullpen arms. Reed represents the first multi-year deal the Twins have ever signed with an outside reliever in free agency. In spite of this, the Twins locked Reed up on a short contract, at a price which they undoubtedly would have had to surpass had they signed him earlier in free agency.
 
Reed joins a Twins bullpen shaping up to be vastly different, and potentially much improved over its 2017 iteration. In addition to returning standout Trevor Hildenberger, the Twins have added Fernando Rodney, presumably filling the vacant ninth inning role, and Zach Duke, returning from an injury-plagued 2017 season. In the former trio, the Twins seemed to have established a penchant for the traits they are pursuing in improving their bullpen; inducing ground balls and a lot of strikeouts, hardly a pioneering recipe for success. In Reed however, they have added a pitcher who generates more fly balls, so what about Reed has made him such a consistent a reliable late inning reliever?
 
There’s no real intricacy in Reed’s pitch mix. He throws a four seem fastball around 66% of the time, a slider 33% of the time, and a changeup about as often as Byron Buxton gets caught stealing a base. Reed has excellent control, posting a walk rate of 1.51 BB/9 in 2016 and 1.78 BB/9 in 2017. Reed’s 2017 BB/9 was good for 11th among relievers who pitched at least 50 innings. This level of control was not always a staple of Reed’s pitching. In his first 3 seasons in MLB his BB/9 oscillated between 2.90 and 3.05. While this may seem like a trivial difference, this is a difference of around 10-11 walks over a 75 inning sample, a big deal when you’re constantly pitching in high leverage situations. So what is at the root of Reed’s improved control since the beginning of the 2016 season?
 
In 2016, Reed produced a dramatic improvement in his overall numbers. In addition to refining his control, Reed stranded around 5% more baserunners, increased his K/9 from 8.2 to 10.55 and dropped his xFIP from 4.04 to 2.09. Reed has never had elite velocity. While some have commented on a dip in velocity throughout the past two seasons, his average four seam fastball velocity has remained fairly consistent, dropping from 93.66 mph in April of 2015 to 92.72 mph in October of 2017. So if Reed isn’t blowing hitters away, how did his K/9 improve and stick above 9.0 in his last two seasons?
 
The number that jumps out in Reed’s improvement from 2015 to 2016 is his F-Strike% (percentage of the time Reed is throwing a first pitch strike). In 2015 Reed’s F-Strike% was around 56%. In 2016, it jumped to 70%. For the sake of comparison, old friend Pat Neshek had an F-Strike% of 71.1% in 2017 and had an incredible BB/9 of 0.87. This is a dramatic improvement from Reed which is even more impressive when visualized.
 
Here’s a look at Reed’s heat map from 2015. This charts the percentage a pitch falls within a sub-location of the strike zone. For all three of these searches I looked at heat maps representing the first pitch of a plate appearance, exclusively when Reed threw his four seem fastball. You’ll immediately notice a stark contrast between 2015 and 2016. Reed improved in two notable areas, pounding the strike zone with a greater level of consistency, and using a greater portion of the strike zone when throwing first pitch strikes. We see a similar performance in 2017 (although not quite as impressive). Interestingly, Reed’s obvious trend in locating his first pitch strikes higher in the zone in resulted in opposing batters OPS increasing from .587 in 2016, to .862 in 2017.
 






 
So where does Reed fit in the back end of a Twins bullpen which has been dramatically upgraded from a year ago? Initially, there was contention that adding Reed might create a closer controversy in Minnesota. The Twins had recently added Fernando Rodney to the pen on a one year deal. It seems as if the Twins will stick with Rodney as their primary ninth inning option. Since taking on his role with the Twins, Paul Molitor has been criticized in his bullpen management for traditionalism, a tendency to use each of his relievers in a pre-determined role. Intractably funneling Rodney into save situations may allow Molitor the luxury of using both Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as more flexible relievers, whose appearances are dictated by the leverage of a given situation, rather than the inning they are pitching in. In addition to providing Molitor with another quality arm, Reed may provide the impetus for Molitor to get more creative in facilitating the evolution of the Twins bullpen, maximizing the potential of a vastly upgraded group.

Not too long ago, Tom had the great idea for the bloggers to list their breakout candidate for 2018 in his Twins Weekly article. So I spent days...nay, hours...nay, minutes(!) scouring some of my favorite baseball resources looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that nobody would ever think of. Minutes (!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would take me from a blogger-in-training to a Schefter-esque insider. Minutes (!!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would leave readers wondering if I am some crazy baseball sorcerer or just plain crazy. After awhile I thought to myself: "What are you doing?? Just listen to your gut." So here is where I fell. My breakout candidate for 2018, the 2016 and 2017 TD MiLB Pitcher of the Year, is 23-year-old LHP Stephen Gonsalves. So much for a "dark horse", eh?
 
Gonsalves had a terrific 2017 where his most notable improvement was his command finishing almost a full walk less per nine innings than his career average (2017: 2.54 BB/9 v. 2013-2016: 3.47). Over 46 tracked fastballs (PITCHf/x has only tracked 71 total pitches), his average velocity sits at just 89.72 mph, which means control is going to be a key factor for him to have any success. Surprisingly, and despite his lack of velocity, he finished the 2017 MiLB season with a 9.65 K/9 pitching 87.1 innings at AA and 22.2 innings at AAA and a 10.78 K/9 in 74.1 innings during the 2016 season at AA. In that same timeframe he did struggle with his command posting a 4.48 BB/9, so we could say that 10+ K/9 was a result of being "wildly effective" a la Edwin Jackson. An improvement in command over a two-year period is another reason why I see him taking the next step this year.
 
Gonsalves batted ball data in minors suggests that he is a flyball pitcher, which isn't a huge deal as Target Field is a pitchers park and...well...you know...Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. But what impressed me even a little more is that hitters don't hit him well. At levels where he made 15+ starts his LD% are as follows: 17.2% (2015 High A), 13% (2016 High A), 18.1% (2016 AA), and 19.2% (2016 AA) which are all below the MLB average of 21%. Admittedly, I know this is a little bit of apples and oranges using a MLB average to analyze minor league numbers, but I do think it gives you a gauge of where he's at. Again, Target Field tends to treat fly ball pitchers well especially with our defense...another positive sign that this could be his year.
 
For me the make or break variable for Stephen Gonsalves will be the development of his slider and curveball. Below you will find a graphic from Brooks Baseball that uses a standardized score to rate Stephen's velocity and movement against other pitchers who fit similar criteria. Unfortunately, this is a very small sample as they only tracked 71 pitches over Gonsalves' 2016 Arizona Fall League appearances. To briefly explain this chart, a negative number means he is below average and a positive number means he is above average.

You might notice that his slider and curveball weren't great in this limited sample. There is no PITCHf/x data for him other than this and no other resource (fangraphs, baseball ref, etc.) keeps very great MiLB SABR stats. In a recent interview with Seth Stohs, Stephen said that he was able to work on his slider so much in 2017 that "it is almost as good as his change up". If this is true and if he can carry this into 2018, then Stephen already has three solid pitches in his arsenal. In that same interview, he said that he has been working with former big leaguer David Wells this season who was known for his curveball:

 

If Wells can help him develop his curveball into a reliable 4th pitch, then I think Stephen will be primed to make the next jump. As I said before, I think his slider and curveball are his biggest question marks coming into the season and will ultimately define if he spends most if his time in Minneapolis or Rochester this year.
 
So what does all this mean for 2018? I think Gonsalves is part of the Spring Training battle for a back end rotation spot but ultimately starts the year at AAA. He will perform well at AAA to the point where he will be the guy called on to fill in during DL stints or for a spot start here and there. Eventually, he makes his way to the MLB roster and doesn't look back. I think he provides a boost to the back end of the rotation that may not be RoY/Cy Young worthy, but that consistently gives you a chance to compete every 5th day.
 
What do you guys think? Who are some other breakout candidates? Anyone have a breakout candidate from a lower level in the Twins organization who may rise quickly in 2018?

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
 
In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
 
Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
 
Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
 
So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
 
Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
 
Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
 
This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
 
With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.
 
While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.
 
For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.
 
Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.
 
On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.
 
Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.
 
In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.
 
Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.
 
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