Ted Schwerzler

Coming into the 2021 Major League Baseball season this Minnesota Twins club was expected to battle with the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central Division title. Someone apparently forgot to tell them that. We’re now over 30 games into the season and Rocco Baldelli’s club is nearly double-digit games out of first place in the division. The story this offseason was one of winning a playoff game, but at this point getting there looks like a herculean feat. A week ago, I wrote about where blame should fall for this debacle. Taking that a step further, which players have regressed the most, and should we have seen it coming? Max Kepler Back in 2019 the Twins inked Kepler to a five-year contract extension. They had a corner outfielder that had done just enough but was looking to breakthrough. They gambled right and that season the German-native posted an .855 OPS. Since that season he’s played in 72 games and posted just a .720 OPS. Although the .760 OPS in 2020 was still a step forward from where he’d been previously, Minnesota was going to need more in the year ahead. He’s responded but hitting below the Mendoza Line with an OPS of .642. He’s got just two homers in 99 plate appearances and the power potential has been all but sapped. Kepler has struggled at times against lefties in his career, even to the point of being platooned for a period. He’s become an advanced defender, but he’s stretched a bit in centerfield, and it has put his body in more of a demanding scenario as well. It’s one thing when he’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but this is a guy the Twins groomed to hit leadoff or for power in the middle, and he’s become anything but. At 28 there’s still time, but it’s getting late early on the 2021 campaign. Miguel Sano Arguably one of the most frustrating players in recent Twins memory, there is no one more of a lightning rod for criticism than Sano is. Despite a .923 OPS across 105 games two years ago, the guy has never been given grace. He’s allowed laziness and character issues to creep in off the field, and even after turning a corner there, performance took a step backwards. Getting off to a late start due to Covid in 2020, Sano has doubled down in 2021. He’s got an unacceptable .496 OPS and looks completely overmatched at the plate. No longer is he able to catch up to fastballs, and while the season started with a strong walk inducing plate discipline, he now looks to be up there flailing. This is a guy that went from Nelson Cruz protégé to someone that could wind up being a lost cause for the organization. Like Kepler, he too is just 28, but at bats are now no longer guaranteed for the first basemen and it’s on him to re-earn any semblance of trust. Tyler Duffey This is arguably the most surprising. Over 81.2 innings the past two seasons Duffey transformed himself into one of baseball’s best relievers. He owned a 2.31 ERA bolstered by a 12.5 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9. The stuff was electric, he had strong command of it, and hitters found themselves looking like something close to an automatic out when he was on the bump. A 5.25 ERA isn’t overtly concerning across just 12.0 IP, but the lack of command and dominance is certainly a problem. Duffey has just a 10/9 K/BB this season and is seemingly not able to get batters to miss the ball. His 9.0 H/9 simply won’t play, and for a guy that was counted on to be a key back-end bullpen piece, Baldelli has been left searching for even more answers with one of his key cogs becoming completely unreliable. Mitch Garver I’m not certain that regression is entirely fair here for Garver as it depends on what the expectation was. I think it’s fair to suggest that his .995 OPS in 2019 wasn’t indicative of the player he is, just as the .511 mark battling through a core injury wasn’t a season ago. He’s since turned it on a bit and now owns a .733 OPS, but the 32/7 K/BB just isn’t reflective of the hitter we once saw. For Garver it doesn’t seem the problem is so much that he’s struggled with what to attack, but instead has been unable to attack the same pitches he once could. Previously hunting and crushing fastballs, he’s sat on that pitch in 2021 but been able to do little with it. Having dealt with a couple of bumps and bruises, it hasn’t been a fluid start to the year, but he could certainly ride some momentum back towards an acceptable output. Looking at the names above, I think they’re probably listed in order of impact and surprise. Kepler hasn’t been good for going on two years now, but he’s also been asked to do substantially more defensively and the level of consistency when getting to the ballpark hasn’t been there. Sano’s ceiling has long been established, and when the bottom falls out of a player like that it crashes hard. For Duffey there has to be a tweak that allows something better the rest of the way, and Garver isn’t far off from what should’ve been expected from him. All in all, the Minnesota Twins are where they are because the core players in their lineup and on the roster have fallen flat. Steps back should always be expected, but by virtually everyone at the same time, that’s pretty difficult to overcome. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

I was actually really surprised Jax didn't go in the Rule 5. I thought he was the perfect type of back end starter for a team like Detroit or Baltimor. I don't think the ceiling is terribly high, but think he's capable of being Dobnak-esque.

Thought it was interesting he came on in relief last night. I mean, three innings is still kind of stretching him out, but if the velo can tick back up, I'd like to see him in the Twins pen.

After kicking off their home slates yesterday with losses, both the St. Paul Saints and Wichita Wind Surge returned to action with opportunity today. Fortunately for both, they executed and grabbed their first victories as members of Twins Territory. TRANSACTIONS Pitcher Brandon Koch signed a minor league contract with the Twins and is assigned to the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He was with the independent Milwaukee Milkmen this year. He was at Twins spring training in 2020 but ended up pitching for the Sugar Land Lightning Sloths of the Constellation Energy League. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins have signed infielder Sherman Johnson and assigned him to the Wichita Wind Surge. He had been working with the independent Kane County Cougars. SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 6, Iowa 1 Box Score After dropping the opener against Iowa the St. Paul Saints recorded their first home victory as an affiliated minor league ballclub. Griffin Jax made the start for the Saints and turned in five innings of one-run ball while striking out four. Lewis Thorpe (3.0 IP 2K) and Cody Stashak (1.0 IP 2 K) both worked scoreless outings in relief. St. Paul jumped out to an early lead in the bottom of the first when Brent Rooker sent a solo shot over the wall in left center. Ryan Jeffers followed his lead in the bottom of the 2nd to double the home tally. After giving one back the Saints went to work and grabbed some separation in the 5th. Jimmy Kerrigan hit the third solo shot of the game before Tomas Telis singled in Nick Gordon. Jeffers then continued his nice night with a double that plated Telis from second base. Rob Refsnyer added a 6th run for good measure in the 6th and Saint Paul closed it out. Now 3-5 on the year, Toby Gardenhire’s squad will look to put more tallies in the win column after recording most of the more monumental firsts. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 1, Amarillo 0 Box Score Looking for their first home win in organization history the Wind Surge turned to Austin Schulfer. He grabbed an out in the 6th inning allowing just a single hit while fanning and walking two each. Ryan Mason continued to be dominant in relief, and Tom Hackimer was credited with the victory as the good guys walked it off in the 9th. Amarillo and Wichita combined for just five hits total in this one, and it wasn’t until Jose Miranda lifted a one-out sac fly in the final half of the 9th that the game’s first run came in. Andrew Bechtold singled to lead off the inning and advanced to third on a throwing error. Wichita made sure to capitalize and will take the walk off in any way they can get it. KERNELS NUGGETS Quad Cities 2, Cedar Rapids 1 Box Score Heralded Twins pitching prospect Blayne Enlow was on the bump for this one and his start didn’t disappoint. Turning in five innings of one-run baseball, Enlow allowed just three hits while striking out seven and allowing just a single free pass. Cedar Rapids spotted their starter a run in the first inning when Spencer Steer stole home, but that was wiped out in the 5th on a River Bandits solo blast. Returning the favor of a run crossing without a ball put in play, Melvi Acosta uncorked a wild pitch in the 7th and that allowed the decisive run to cross the plate for Quad Cities. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 6, Clearwater 5 Box Score Opening Day starter Regi Grace was back on the bump for this one, but it was a shortened start as he allowed five earned runs on five hits and two longballs. Ultimately he came an out shy of making it through the third inning. Fort Myers was afforded the opportunity for a win thanks in part to a strong relief outing from Ryan Shreve, who went 2.2 innings and struck out five allowing just two hits. After a solo shot put the Threshers in the lead, Fort Myers answered quickly. Singles from Edouard Julien, Anthony Prato, and Willie Joe Garry Jr. all drove in runs giving the Mighty Mussels a 3-1 lead after the first frame. Keoni Cavaco kept up his hot hitting with a double in the 2nd that plated another to put the Mussels back on top 4-3, and Julien drove in two on a 6th inning single that pushed the tally to a final score of 6-5. The middle of the lineup did most of the heavy lifting for Fort Myers in this one. Despite each starter grabbing a hit, and their being 13 in total, seven came from Cavaco, Julien, and Aaron Sabato. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) – 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Hitter of the Day – Edouard Julien 2-for-4, R, 3 RBI PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota) – Injured List (wrist) #2 - Royce Lewis (Rehab) - Out for Season (torn ACL) #3 - Trevor Larnach (Minnesota) – 1-for-1, 2B (pinch hit, first MLB hit) #4 - Ryan Jeffers (St. Paul) – 2-for-3, R, 2 RBI, 2B, HR(2), BB #5 - Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) – Did not pitch #6 - Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) – Injured List (back) #7 - Keoni Cavaco (Ft. Myers) – 3-for-4, 2 R, RBI, 2B #8 - Aaron Sabato (Ft. Myers) – 2-for-3, R, 2 BB, K #9 - Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) – Did not pitch #10 - Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) – 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K #11 - Gilberto Celestino (Wichita) – 0-for-3, 2 K #12 - Brent Rooker (St. Paul) – 1-for-3, R, RBI, HR(2), BB, K #13 - Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) – 0-for-4, BB, 3 K #14 - Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) – 1-for-3, R, BB #15 - Cole Sands (Wichita) – Did not pitch #16 - Edwar Colina (Rehab) - 60-Day IL (elbow) #17 - Ben Rortvedt (Minnesota) – Did not play #18 - Alerick Soularie (Complex) – N/A #19 - Jose Miranda (Wichita) – 0-for-3, RBI, K #20 - Bailey Ober (St. Paul) – Did not pitch THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Iowa @ St. Paul (7:05PM CST) – RHP Bailey Ober (0-0, 3.00 ERA) Amarillo @ Wichita (7:05PM CST) – RHP Dakota Chalmers (0-0, 6.75 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Quad Cities (6:30PM CST) – LHP Tyler Watson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) Clearwater @ Fort Myers (6:00PM CST) – RHP Miguel Rodriguez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Wednesday’s games! 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Once again, the 2021 Minnesota Twins game script played out in Chicago on Tuesday night. Despite a three-run blast by Yasmani Grandal, Kenta Maeda had settled in. Rocco Baldelli pulled him after the 5th inning, only for the bullpen to immediately cough up the lead. Starters, relievers, anyone? Is there anyone the Twins can trust? Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen is hot garbage. The front office brought in Hansel Robles and Alex Colome this offseason. Both are decent signings, but there wasn’t much in the form of additional firepower. Robles had question marks as to whether he could regain previous form, and Colome was certainly a candidate for regression (although not this far). With holdovers like Tyler Duffey and Cody Stashak taking steps backwards, it’s become Taylor Rogers or bust. We’re now over 30 games into the season and the same trends are continuing on a nightly basis. No bullpen in baseball, save for the Tigers, is on par with the Twins futility. Their strand rate is dead last, they’ve accounted for an MLB worst 12 losses, and their ERA is the fourth worst in the sport. Why then does the skipper continue turning to them more often than he has to? Yes, numbers absolutely suggest that the more times a lineup sees a starter, the more likely you’re going to run into trouble. The problem for the Twins is that they’ve been so risk averse with their starters, that the onus of each additional out placed on the relief corps only heightens the likelihood of problems. Going back through the 33 games played to this point, I highlighted 11 different starts that seemed questionable scenarios to lift the pitcher. Not once did the starter have more than 88 pitches thrown, multiple times they were under 80, and in none of those instances had they allowed more than three runs. Six of those situations included the bullpen being activated in the 6th inning, with another four of them being 7th inning activations. That means the worst unit in the league is being asked to get something between 9-12 outs or at least 33% of a total game, despite the starter being in a good spot. It’s also understandable that Rocco Baldelli would be hesitant to run a starter out for another inning and face the problem of bringing in relief help with runners on. Remember, this group allows inherited runners to score at an alarming pace, so bringing someone in without a clean inning only ratchets the difficulty of their task. At some point though, there has to be a shift in philosophy when it comes to finding a way that works. Minnesota has an awful bullpen and we’ve seen that reflected by in game results on a near nightly basis to this point. The starters aren’t world beaters by any means but letting a guy with 85 pitches in the 5th or 6th inning start the next half has to become more commonplace. You know the devil that is the relievers right now. We don’t really know the devil that is the starters quickly running into a wall. Allow that to also be broke before you try fixing something that hasn’t been there. It’s not April anymore, pitch counts reaching or exceeding 100 shouldn’t be a fear. The season might not be salvageable for the Twins at this point but trying a different strategy would certainly be a welcomed sign as opposed to practicing the definition of insanity. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the course of 2021 the Minnesota Twins have found more ways to lose in 32 games than most teams can accomplish over the course of a full season. If going into the year it was assumed this club would be good, a complete 180 this early doesn’t seem fair. The problem? Are these players actually good? Here’s the deal, Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen has been bad. It’s among the worst in baseball across more than a handful of categories. He’s dealing with a group that the front office banked more on development than production, and regression has hit everyone not named Taylor Rogers. Despite a winning record in nine-inning games, this team gets crushed the minute relief help comes in. Although the lineup has shown signs of life at times, the length of it is immediately called into question when looking at assumed producers. I think it was a fair assessment to assume 2020 Mitch Garver wasn’t right. Jorge Polanco dealt with an ankle injury, and Max Kepler clearly left something to be desired. Fast forward a year however, and that trio is as confusing as ever. The backstop that broke out in 2019 probably was never going to resurface for the Twins. What Garver did that year was truly unreal, and for a late-blooming catcher, probably unrepeatable. It should’ve been assumed that Minnesota’s catching tandem could be among the best in baseball this season with how Ryan Jeffers looked in his 2020 debut. Garver hasn’t caught up to the fastball again though, and despite a .748 OPS, has just not really put it together yet. Moving from shortstop to second base was going to be huge for Polanco defensively. A surgically repaired ankle also gave the Twins middle infielder a clean bill of health. He seems to be staying in on swings more than he did a year ago, but the results still leave plenty to be desired. Polanco’s .679 OPS is just north of his 2020 mark, and while he does have a 97 OPS+ on the season, a .236/.306 average and on-base percentage is not where the Twins can afford him to be. Extended in 2019, he really hasn’t been a good player since. In the outfield there’s been more uncertainty than ever this season. Alex Kirilloff was left off the roster to start 2021, and Byron Buxton is now again on the shelf. Kepler has always been the mainstay from a health perspective, but his production has gone missing for the better part of the past two years. Just recently getting on the longball board this season, Kepler owns a disappointing .664 OPS through his first 22 games. The average is hovering near the Mendoza Line, and the .855 OPS from 2019 looks to be from an alternate universe. The reality for Rocco is that the players he was counting on have by and large been there this season. In mass quantities however, they’ve fallen flat. It’s great that Byron Buxton looks like an MVP candidate, Josh Donaldson is a monster, and Nelson Cruz is ageless. Behind that though, it’s really hard to see anything that suggests this team is good anywhere but on paper. Assume producers need to start coming through, and it’s this trio that may be chief among them. There’s still time for the 2021 Minnesota Twins to turn things around, but it’s getting late early, and it only gets darker if the light switch doesn’t flip for some guys very soon. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Welcome to the 2021 Minnesota Twins season where Total System Failure has begun to rear its head once again. An expected World Series contender has fallen flat, but where does blame go?On May 5, 2016 Chip Scoggins received a quote from Twins owner Jim Pohlad calling the entire situation a “total system failure.” That team was 8-20 and would go on to lose 103 games. Fast forward to where we are now, a fan paying top dollar for Champions Club seats to hold up a “Fire Rocco” sign last night, and it’s hard not to see parallels. Minnesota has been unlucky, bad, and ill-prepared throughout 2021. This team chock full of veteran talent has been nothing short of a colossal disappointment. Because we need to reason through how we got here, it’s more than fair to look for avenues of blame. Who, and to what extent, is responsible? The Players: 60% First and foremost, you can’t absolve anyone on this roster not named Byron Buxton. Outside of the Twins current AL MVP candidate, everyone has fallen short at one point or another. Kenta Maeda and his command look no part of the guy that finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting a year ago. Jose Berrios is always waiting for *that* inning, and the lineup has been nonexistent in the production department more often than it hasn’t. It’s a good thing that runs are starting to be scored and the bats appear to be taking a turn, but that isn’t universal. Part of the catching tandem is down in Triple-A. Both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco simply look bad, while Miguel Sano has seen none of the results due to timing issues hampering his bat. The names and pieces are there, but if no one is going to perform, this should be the expected result. The Front Office: 25% Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done an exceptional job since taking over the Minnesota Twins front office. This offseason they were coming off a second straight AL Central division title, and despite the Postseason sweep, we’re again poised to have a team capable of contention deep into the playoffs. There wasn’t much this lineup needed and grabbing Andrelton Simmons as an answer to losing Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza resembles something just short of a coup. If there’s a problem, it’s that they relied too heavily on process regarding the bullpen and believed development would trump conventional wisdom. Matt Wisler was a great case study a year ago, but he was moved on from because the underlying warts were expected to be unsustainable (they were right, his 7.94 ERA says so). The problem is that in replacing Wisler the moves were all dart throws. A bunch of waiver claims with sliders as key pitches didn’t represent anything of substance. Hansel Robles has been fine, and while predicting this level of regression for Alexander Colome is unfathomable, they skimped on any sort of real plan if things started to go sideways. Now it’s scramble mode, and well, the deck is empty. Rocco Baldelli: 14% Over the course of a season, you’re going to have any number of coin flip decisions as a skipper. The best managers find success right around 60% of the time, while the worst are on the 40% spectrum. Unfortunately for Rocco, he’s been batting somewhere around 20% this season and that’s just not going to go over well. Late game relief management has been suspect. There’s been more than a handful of substitutions that beg for a bit more explanation, and ultimately the Twins have gotten less when they’ve needed more. However, and this isn’t to absolve the man in charge of the clubhouse, a trickle-down effect is at play here. Baldelli is only able to turn to pieces provided by the front office, and unfortunate stretches of missed time have only extrapolated that reality. Bad Luck: 1% There’s no denying that Minnesota has had a good deal of bad luck this season. With a -1 run differential they should be much closer to .500, and it’s the results in close and goofy (extra-inning/seven-inning) games that has made the results worse than they need to be. However, we’re still less than 30 games into the season, so there’s time for that situation to balance itself out. What we’ll see as time goes on is if the luck really has been as bad as it looks, or if the unfortunate circumstances are more a result of an ill-prepared team with less-than-ideal parts. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

After dropping their opener yesterday, the St. Paul Saints won convincingly on Wednesday afternoon marking the first victory as an affiliate of the Minnesota Twins. The production was highlighted from some longballs by big name prospects.TRANSACTIONS • Lewis Thorpe recalled by Twins with Brandon Waddell optioned to Triple-A • Caleb Hamilton moved from Rochester to Wichita. SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 10, Omaha 4 Box Score For years, the partnership between the Minnesota Twins and St. Paul Saints has been something of desirability for fans across the metro. That reality came true this offseason, and now the new Triple-A club has their firs affiliated victory. Lefty Charlie Barnes was on the bump and got the win with a quality start allowing just three runs on seven hits across five innings of work. The Saints to a lead on a Ryan Jeffers sacrifice fly in the first inning. After giving it back briefly in the bottom half, Toby Gardenhire’s squad would regain it before running to hide the rest of the way. Drew Maggi, Tzu-Wei Lin, and Rob Refsnyder all drove in runs during the second inning, and then the boppers stepped in. Heralded Twins outfield prospect Trevor Larnach was playing in just his second Triple-A game, and he launched a three run homer in the fourth inning extending the lead to a 7-2 mark. Brent Rooker would follow that with a solo blast of his own and this one was all but over. Refsnyder did more damage in the 6th adding a solo shot for St. Paul’s 10th run of the game. Although Zander Wiel and Lin didn’t record a hit, St. Paul racked up 12 of them as a team. Juan Minaya and Ian Gibault struck out two and three respectively in their relief work. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 5, Springfield 4 Box Score In their second game as an established franchise, as well as second game as an affiliate of the Minnesota Twins, Wichita won in comeback fashion. Now 2-0 in history, the question really becomes whether or not they'll ever actually lose a game. Jose Miranda opened the scoring in this one with a two-run homer scoring Gilberto Celestino in the top half of the third inning. After giving a run back in the bottom half, the Wind Surge tacked on another thanks to a wild pitch that allowed Aaron Whitefield to scamper home in the 5th. Facing a one run deficit in the 7th, Wichita again leaned on Whitefield. First his triple allowed Damek Tomscha to score, and then yet another wild pitch gave him the opportunity to cross the plate again. Ryan Mason came on to record his first save of the year and punched out three while getting four outs in the contest. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 7, Peoria 6 Box Score Welcome to the Matt Wallner show. The 39th overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft put up quite a performance going 3-for-4 with a pair of big flies tonight for the Kernels. His first contribution in the bottom half of the third inning with Cedar Rapids down by three. A sacrifice fly opened the scoring and it was off to the races. After Peoria tacked on two more in the 4th inning, Wallner came to bat in the bottom half of the 5th. He sent this ball over the fence, plating Seth Gray, for a two-run shot. Then again in the 7th Wallner stepped up and delivered his second blast of the evening, this one being of the three run variety, scoring Spencer Steer and Gray to give Cedar Rapids a 6-5 lead. With the game tied in the bottom of the 9th Gabe Snyder doubled to score Gray for the third time, and allow a home team walkoff. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 13, Bradenton 4 Box Score The artist formerly known as the Miracle got out to a big lead early in this one, and they made sure to never leave it in doubt. A five-run first inning was punctuated by a Max Smith grand slam that brought in Aaron Sabato Edouard Julien, and Kyle Schmidt. After giving two back in the bottom half, the Mighty Mussels had a quick answer. Smith was plunked with the bases loaded and earned the RBI driving Keoni Cavaco in from third base. An uncorked wild pitch gave Julien an opportunity to score, and a Yunior Severino single added two more. When the dust settled on the second Fort Myers had a 9-2 lead. In the 5th inning Anthony Prato would plate the 10th run on a wild pitch before Cavaco drove in the 11th following a Willie Joe Garry Jr. steal into scoring position. Will Holland launched his first homer of the year in the 6th inning, and yet another wild pitch gave Severino an opportunity to race home before the inning was done. Hunter McMahon got the win and was impressive in relief. Working 4.2 innings of two hit ball, he punched out six for the Mighty Mussels while allowing just a single free pass. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Hunter McMahaon (Fort Myers) - 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K Hitter of the Day – Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) – 3-for-4, 2 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR(2) PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota) – Did not play #2 - Royce Lewis (Rehab) - Out for Season (torn ACL) #3 - Trevor Larnach (St. Paul) – 2-for-5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR(1) #4 - Ryan Jeffers (St. Paul) – 1-for-4, RBI #5 - Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) – Did not pitch #6 - Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) – Injured List (back) #7 - Keoni Cavaco (Ft. Myers) – 3-for-5, 2 R, RBI, BB, K #8 - Aaron Sabato (Ft. Myers) – 1-for-4, R, 2 BB 2 K #9 - Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) – Did not pitch #10 - Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) – Did not pitch #11 - Gilberto Celestino (Wichita) – 0-for-3, R, 2 BB, 3 K #12 - Brent Rooker (St. Paul) – 2-for-5, R, RBI, HR(1) #13 - Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) – 3-for-4, 2 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR(2) #14 - Misael Urbina (Complex) – N/A #15 - Cole Sands (Wichita) – Did not pitch #16 - Edwar Colina (Rehab) - 60-Day IL (elbow) #17 - Ben Rortvedt (Minnesota) – Did not play #18 - Alerick Soularie (Complex) – N/A #19 - Jose Miranda (Wichita) – 1-for-4, R, 2 RBI, BB, HR(1) #20 - Bailey Ober (St. Paul) – Did not pitch THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Omaha (6:35PM CST) – RHP Randy Dobnak Wichita @ Springfield (7:05PM CST) – RHP Cole Sands Peoria @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) – RHP Blayne Enlow Fort Myers @ Bradenton (5:05PM CST) – RHP Sean Mooney Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Wednesday’s games! Click here to view the article

Yesterday the Minnesota Twins had to scratch Alex Kirilloff from the starting lineup when it was discovered he was dealing with wrist discomfort. It sounds as if a looming IL stint is around the corner, and that’s disappointing news for Rocco Baldelli’s hottest hitter. What happens from here could set the tone for the rest of the way. Miguel Sano has been on the Injured List for Minnesota as he dealt with a leg injury and was working on timing prior to an activation. Kirilloff had been playing first base but could’ve slid back in to left field where Jake Cave has done little more than take up space this season. Now without Kirilloff in the mix, the front office has a decision to make. The immediate answer would seem to be a veteran placeholder such as Keon Broxton. He looked the part in Spring Training and has had big league success previously. Success is relative however when you’re talking about a guy with a .685 OPS across just north of 1,000 plate appearances. Broxton is a plus defender and does have some pop in his bat, but he’s hardly a sustainable bet to push the bar for a failing Twins team. Much like Kirilloff before him, if Minnesota wants to respond with the opportunity to make an impact, it’s time for the training wheels to come off top prospect Trevor Larnach. Now 24, the 2018 1st round pick is currently at Triple-A St. Paul. He only has two career games at that level, but the assumption should be that he would’ve spent considerable time there in 2020 had a season take place. The former Oregon State Beaver is a polished hitting prospect with an .850 career OPS in pro ball. He has an advanced approach at the plate and is hardly a strikeout machine despite being a power hitter. Unlike Kirilloff, Larnach should be ticketed for a corner outfield spot. Whereas Alex is destined to play first base, and do it well, Larnach’s athleticism will keep him in the grass, and he should be able to provide average or better defense out there. Given the shortening length of Rocco Baldelli’s lineup at the big-league level, adding another bat like this that can start in the bottom half would give hope to a club floundering out of the gates. It’s probably unfair to pin the expectations that were placed on Kirilloff directly to Larnach. That said, they’ve consistently ranked as eerily similar prospects to me, and I’d be far from shocked if the bat didn’t immediately translate for Trevor as well. Keon Broxton is a player in the same vein as Kyle Garlick or Jake Cave. They have utility but asking them to be a regular stretches their overall value. Putting Larnach into a spot where he can contribute at the highest level raises the overall water level, and who knows where things go from there. He’d need a 40-man roster move, and this is probably sooner than the front office wanted to unleash him, but it’s time for Trevor Larnach to become a Major Leaguer. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Tomorrow, for the first time since 2019, we will have affiliated Minor League Baseball. The Minnesota Twins farm system is still stocked with strong prospects, and there’s been a good deal of change. We’ll finally get to see it unfold again. Having the 2020 Minor League Baseball season be cancelled was arguably the most disappointing baseball decision from last year. While it’s understandable given the logistical hurdles during a global pandemic, not seeing development on a nightly basis was a tough pill to swallow. Minnesota had players working out in St. Paul at their alternate site, but sim games and manufactured action can only take guys so far. Fast forward to where we are now, and the return of baseball on the farm couldn’t be more welcomed. Minnesota will do so without top prospect Royce Lewis on the diamond, and both top pitching prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic will begin the season on the IL. That said, there’s still a ton of development to take place and so much excitement around a system that has been substantially changed. First and foremost, the locations are no longer what we are used to. Triple-A is now housed just down the road from Target Field as the Saint Paul Saints begin their long-awaited affiliation with the Twins. At Double-A, the Wichita Wind Surge will play their inaugural season, and for the Twins instead of the Miami Marlins as was intended in 2020. High-A has been relocated from Fort Myers to Cedar Rapids, and the Low-A Florida State League club is now dubbed the Mighty Mussels rather than the Miracle. On the player specific side of things there’s plenty of names to watch. Trevor Larnach is the top position prospect at Triple-A, and Double-A Wichita will start quick rising Josh Winder on Opening Day. I still think reliever Ryan Mason is a name to watch as an option for the big-league club this year, and we’ll get to see the likes of Keoni Cavaco and Aaron Sabato as they continue their ascension towards the Major League roster. As a contributor over at Twins Daily, I’ll once again have the Minor League report on Wednesday nights, and those will again become a daily mainstay to catch up on the action. This aspect of the game was severely missed a season ago and having it back couldn’t be more welcomed. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Almost like the numbers said this was coming.

Alex Kirilloff has been the Twins heralded prospect since his debut during the Postseason in 2020. He was left off the Opening Day roster, but is now here to save the day, soon.The hope was that the former first round pick would join the big-league roster and provide a lift. The unfortunate reality is that he was called upon with some key players out due to Covid, and the Fightin’ Baldelli’s in the midst of a terrible stretch. There’s no way to sugarcoat it, Kirilloff has yet to see success. He’s played seven total games in 2021 and posted a .115/.115/.154 slash line. In the six games he’s played since being added to the active roster as a regular, Kirilloff has gone 3-for 23 with five strikeouts and no walks. His BABIP stands at just .150 and his WPA at Baseball Reference checks in at -0.4. But wait, there’s a lot of good news. Venturing over to Fangraphs and taking a look at his Statcast numbers, a different story is being told for the Twins left fielder. BABIP and WPA are analytical indicators of events that have taken place. So too is wOBA, which provides increasing values based upon the outcome of each plate appearance. Given Kirilloff’s lack of results, his wOBA is predictably low at .116. His xwOBA though, which measures inputs like launch angle and exit velocity, sits at a strong .376. What that indicates is a nearly 300-point difference between reality and what *should* happen based on inputs. Now let’s deviate from the results a bit and look into the process. Kirilloff has struck out just six times in 26 plate appearances, or 23.1% of the time. He’s also barreling the ball in 15% of his plate appearances (which would lead Major League Baseball), and he has a hard-hit percentage of 55.0%, trailing only Franmil Reyes and Bryce Harper among qualified hitters. Download attachment: 2fd86e1d-0a91-4960-a0f5-69b9f48f4b62.jpg Kirilloff’s charts show a decent process as well. His average launch angle on balls in play is just eight degrees, falling just short of the 10-degree threshold to be on the lower end of optimal range. He has sprayed the ball to all fields however, unless he’s pulling it on the ground. Although the opposite field has been victimized just 11% of the time, Minnesota’s rookie is going back up the middle over half the time he puts the ball in play. Download attachment: 5ff48d42-da67-41d6-a598-3655fbe6a8cb.jpg So, where does that leave us? Probably in a similar place with respect to the team as a whole. Baseball isn’t mean to be dissected over 26 plate appearances, 23 games, or even 60 games. There’s a 162-game season because nuance is allowed and a generally process refined approach allows for results to find a respected mean. That’s to say, Rocco Baldelli and the Twins should have no issues continuing to run Kirilloff out there because the process is going to bear fruit. A .374 xwOBA would register 44th in Major League Baseball right now had Kirilloff qualified, and there’s plenty of guys that would kill to spank the ball as much as Alex has. As a rookie Kirilloff will need to stay true to his process. He’s chasing a bit too much and is going to be exploited until he starts seeing results come but opposing pitchers should enjoy their victories now because the tides will eventually turn. This is an extremely mature kid that doesn’t appear phased by much. I’m sure he’s well aware of the results, but I’d also wager he’s plenty locked in on the process. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I have been a big proponent of retiring anything to do with the Bomba Squad moniker from 2019. Let seasons evolve on their own. The 2021 team was supposed to be good, they are on paper, but will it take shape? We are not yet through the month of April and I keep harping on the runway left for the 2021 season. Minnesota has played just over 12% of their games, and they are chasing a White Sox team that is just 4.5 games clear of them right now. That’s all to outline the current positioning isn’t dire. The problem is that the production just hasn’t been there. Rocco Baldelli has gotten less than nothing from his catching tandem, and the left field situation has been a mess. Expecting Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz all to be good was a pretty solid bet, and that’s played out as expected. Miguel Sano is currently on the IL, and while the numbers haven’t yet worked in his favor, the process is more than working. The point we’re quickly getting to is wondering when things click? If there’s three chief areas of concern, it’s the two previously outlined and the bullpen. Alex Colome was always going to regress from his otherworldly 2020 numbers, but his career production suggested that a baseline was hardly something to scoff at. Instead, he’s been historically bad while being more hittable than at any point during his career. The middle relief looks inept and holding onto small deficits just hasn’t been doable. Looking at the lineup, Baldelli can’t continue to get an empty lineup spot from multiple positions. Mitch Garver no longer punishes lefties or fastballs, and while Alex Kirilloff is just a few games in to his first promotion, he’s currently dealing with an 0-fer. Whether it’s a longer leash for Ryan Jeffers, who has also been bad, or a big game for Kirilloff, the Twins need things to break their way. This hasn’t been the Bomba Squad for quite some time, and the lineup doesn’t need to launch balls into the seats for opportunity to win. Luis Arraez and Andrelton Simmons provide plenty of good contact-based opportunities, and it’s on Minnesota to start capitalizing with what’s in front of them. Despite having the second worst record in baseball, the run differential is only -9 and the pythag presents a better 9-11 story. Maybe it’s been bad luck, but it’s time to start creating their own. If the expectation was for this team to be good coming into the year, 20 games shouldn’t change that. At some point though, results have to follow. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into 2021 it was assumed that Kenta Maeda would be Rocco Baldelli’s ace. So far that hasn’t been the case, but longtime prospect Jose Berrios has taken some massive steps forward.For the past few seasons, it’s been questioned as to whether the Minnesota Twins would lock the Puerto Rican up with a long-term deal. Although there’s been discussions, nothing has taken place of yet. Even if the payday doesn’t come from the organization that drafted him, what Berrios has done out of the gate in 2021 has been nothing short of eye-opening. Through his first four turns in the rotation Berrios owns a 3.00 ERA and an even better 2.13 FIP. The xFIP jumps to 2.83 but still checks in below that ERA mark. Where things get exciting is in the type of outs he’s getting, and also importantly, what he’s not allowing. Berrios has always been a strikeout pitcher, but with just a career 9.0 K/9 bolstered by a 9.7 K/9 a year ago, it’s not as though he’s elite. In 2021 however, the K/9 sits at 12.9 and he’s actually dropped the walk rate back down to his career average of 3.0. Of the 79 batters Berrios has faced, 30 of them have been sent back to the dugout from the box. It’s not just strikeouts and walks that are important here though. Jose is also not giving up hits, and especially not the ones that leave the yard. Minnesota’s starter owns a career 1.258 WHIP with a low water mark of 1.144 set back in 2018 during his first All-Star season. Currently he owns a 0.952 WHIP thanks to a H/9 registering at just 5.6. A knock on Berrios has always been his height and the susceptibility to give up the home run ball. That’s not happening right now as he’s coughed up just one through 21.0 IP, a HR/9 of 0.4. Should that mark stay at one-third of his career average all season long, he’s going to be in for a nice set up peripherals. Back in March I wrote about Berrios and wondered what we may see this season that we missed out a year ago. The bugaboo for him has often been the lack of ability to sustain through a start and more evidently the course of a season. He’s always seen that late summer swoon ultimately watering down what could have been much more glowing numbers. The workout routines have changed and pitching coach Wes Johnson has put in a ton of work to make tweaks with mound positioning and velocity inducing efforts that are intended to give Jose new life. So far so good. On the season Berrios is averaging 94.6 mph on his fastball. Although that’s down 0.1 mph from 2020, we’re dealing with a sample that is early and still a cold month. We’ve seen him pop 97 mph on the radar gun this season, it’s he’s sustained velocity throughout starts. He’s getting swinging strikes at a career best 12% and batters are finding contact just 73.6% of the time, a career best and over 4% south of his average. After cruising in the first four innings of a game against the Red Sox, Berrios is one bad inning away from a 1.29 ERA. With another start still on deck for April, it’s way too early to suggest any sweeping indications. Also, it’s worth remembering that Jose hasn’t typically seen struggles until later in the calendar anyways. That said, a guy mowing down the opposition as he has, and having been as dominant thus far as we’ve seen, it might be worth believing that the pieces are coming together. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

You might be right, but making that determination 10% into a 162 game season isn’t really how baseball is consumed.

To be fair, they've finished with a .600 win percentage each of the past two seasons.

It’s April 21 and the Minnesota Twins are 6-10. They have looked every bit as poor as the record indicates and their Postseason odds have dropped below 50% at FanGraphs. Let’s take a step back and breathe though. Being that it’s April 21, the Twins have yet to play more than 10% of their total schedule in 2021. They have been at Target Field for just two total series on the year, and they’ve also had a three-day hiatus due to Covid. Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Donaldson have all been in the starting lineup together just twice, and injuries have ravaged the club early. That’s not to say things are entirely worth casting aside. The lineup still looks as lethargic as it did to end the 2020 Postseason. Rocco Baldelli has made some head scratching decisions in regards to managerial moves, and a team that was expected to be good has fallen flat. It’s in that last revelation that reality lies, however. Going into 2021 the Minnesota Twins were expected to be good. Not just by Twins fans, but analysts and national writers across the sport. With that being the case, there shouldn’t be a substantial alteration in that belief due to the results of 16 games. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the 60-game season we dealt with in 2020 might have ruined us. During a sprint, each game is worth over-analyzing and diving into moves that could cost each club on a more substantial level. In a marathon that is a 162-game slate, there’s room for nuance. The same Oakland Athletics team that Minnesota was swept by in a doubleheader on Tuesday night started the season 0-6 only to go 11-1 since. On May 23, 2019, the Washington Nationals were 19-31, 50 games into their season. They went on to finish 93-69 and win the World Series. There’s no sugar coating it, the Twins have been bad. They’ve even been very bad. The bullpen has not looked good, the outfield has been a mess, injuries have bit them, and the lineup could use whatever infusion the Bomba Squad has left from it. All of that is true, but it’s simply too early. That can change in an instant, and it may wind up getting late early on the season but being willing to bet on a good team coming together is a logical stance to take. Covid is still going to dictate parts of this season in same form or fashion, but the calendar is not one of them, and 162 games are on the docket. Let’s get to at least one-third of them being completed before we make any sweeping assessments. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

If there’s two hitters for the Minnesota Twins that couldn’t be off to more different starts in 2021, it’s Miguel Sano and Luis Arraez. Analytics are painting a very interesting story for both.Given that the difference in production between Sano and Arraez is so drastic, let’s start with the bad news. Rocco Baldelli is obviously counting on the first basemen to be an anchor in the power production department of his lineup. Thus far Sano owns a .079/.271/.158 slash line and has been worth -0.3 fWAR. Let’s go under the hood though and see what’s really going on. First and foremost, it’s worth remembering this is all an analysis of 48 plate appearances over a total of just 12 games. Yes, his average is abysmal, but it’s not a traditional problem for Miguel. He has a career best 20.8% walk rate (nearly double his average) and has shaved nearly 6% off his strikeout rate. There haven’t been a ton of balls put in play, but he has just a .105 BABIP. What is often assumed to be the problem with a strikeout prone hitter is that they are just all over the place when in the box. That couldn’t be further from the truth for Sano. His chase rate is at 25.5% (below his career average), and he’s shaved 3% off his whiff rate from 2020. The contact rate is up, and he’s actually swinging more often at pitches in the zone. So, where’s the issue? Miguel Sano is known for being a destroyed of baseballs, and right now timing is not allowing him to do that. He’s seeing a career high 68.8% first pitch strikes. Opposing pitchers are going right at him and getting ahead in the count early. Of the 20 batted ball events Sano has had, he’s barreled just a single one of them. For a guy with a 44.6% hard hit rate over his career to be at 25% with a 60% soft contact rate clearly suggests things are out of whack. Download attachment: Sano.PNG When attempting to deduce where and how Sano can adjust Minnesota may look no further than his swing path. Sano tends to get long at times, and instead of contact being centered, he’s under the ball. This is reflected in a 50% infield fly ball percentage. The likelihood that those types of circumstances are going to result in hits remains minute. At the end of the season Sano will likely have adjusted and worked through hot streaks combatting this slow start. He’s a streaky hitter at times and the cold spell may have come to start the year. No matter how it shakes out, I think you’d be hard pressed to suggest that one of the game’s most powerful hitters over the past few years has simply lost his ability to make hard contact. He’s been more disciplined, so when bat meets ball things should get fun. On the flip side the Twins are seeing a slight change in approach from their newly designated utility man. Luis Arraez has always been heralded as an incredibly tough out because he doesn’t strike out, makes a pitcher work, and will take walks. Those things are still all true, but he’s looking to add a bit more power into his game. Here too we’re dealing with a small sample size in just 46 total plate appearances, but it’s clear that the former second basemen has a little something up his sleeve. Arraez posted a 7.9% and 9.1% strikeout rate in his first two seasons with the Twins, but to start 2021 has increased that to 13%. It’s not a problematic number by any means, especially not when coupled with a career high 15.2% walk rate, but it’s part of a tradeoff. Welcome to the power surge. Arraez has 33 batted ball events this year and has a 39.4% hard hit rate, nearly a 10% jump year over year, and what was already a career high in 2020. He’s still utilizing roughly the same batted ball profile with what breaks down to a 30% line drive rate, but his xwOBA is now nearly 50 points higher at .405 solely because he’s putting force behind each swing. Download attachment: Arraez.PNG Don’t expect Luis to become some big bopper this season by any means, but there’s 15 homer potential in this style. He’s doing it while staying in himself too. The chase rate is actually down to a career best 22% while his whiff rate is only up 2% at 5.6% on the year. Sure, he’s making slightly less contact, but virtually all of it is still coming within the zone and he’s doing it with more intent. We’re still far too early into the season regarding any definitive determinations. If there’s a takeaway regarding output from hitters to this point however, it’s that I love what I’m seeing from Arraez and that Miguel Sano should be in for a welcomed amount of production once the timing clicks. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article