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Ted Schwerzler

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  1. So here we are, the 2015 Major League Baseball season is quickly rumbling to a finish, and the Minnesota Twins have made it a relevant year. In the playoff hunt, and playing meaningful September baseball, the Twins are in a good place. With the performance though, there are no doubt players that have taken steps forward. The question is, does Kyle Gibson qualify among them? Coming into the season, Gibson was a pitcher I expected a lot out of. A former first round pick and top Twins pitching prospect, Gibson needed to push the envelope. Now 27 years old, his experience was teetering into veteran territory, and there's no doubt that Minnesota was hoping the results would follow. With new pitching coach Neil Allen getting to work with him for the first time, Gibson had plenty of opportunity in front of him. The lone full season in his career at the big league level, 2014, Gibson owned a 4.47 ERA in 31 starts for a bad Twins team. He pitched 179.1 innings, struck out 107, walked 57, gave up 12 home runs, and owned a 1.310 WHIP. For all intents and purposes, the numbers were mediocre across the board. On a team with bad starters, Gibson was an ok-at-best back-end option. With a retooled 2015 rotation, the Twins were hoping Gibson could push towards possessing the middle-to-top type stuff he once was billed as. In 2015 (as of this writing), Gibson owns a 3.87 ERA. He's started 28 games and has pitched 172.0 innings. The former Missouri Tiger has struck out 119 batters and walked 57, while allowing a career high 16 home runs. All told, he's compiled a 1.291 WHIP in 2015. On the surface, it's somewhat difficult to suggest what context that gives the year-by-year improvement Gibson has seen. Taking a closer look starts to open things up however. First, the start Gibson has was simply brilliant. From April 15 through May 30, Gibson was one of the best in the big leagues. A span of nine starts saw him throw to the tune of a 1.85 ERA and just a .237/.302/.363 slash line against. An rough stretch in the middle of the year inflated things, but then has once again been evened out by a strong finish. In four starts since August 22, Gibson owns a 3.20 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to slash just .228/.291/.315 off of him. Continuing with a beginning and end trend, Gibson actually has fared the opposite over the course of games themselves. In 2015, the first inning has been one of his worst. Allowing 17 first inning runs and 34 hits, Gibson has been hit around to a 5.46 ERA in getting the first three outs of a game. As contests go on as well, his finish has been difficult. Reaching the sixth inning in 24 of his 28 starts (and advancing beyond just 11 times), the righty owns a 6.52 ERA. What he has done well though is bounce back. In the second inning, and high leverage situations, Gibson has been at his best. In the second, Gibson owns a 2.25 ERA, and has allowed just eight runs. After pitching to less than advantageous situations, he's allowed opposing hitters to bat just .219/.319/.281 (his lowest slash line allowed across three possible situations). Quite possibly the biggest improvement Gibson has seen in 2015 is being great when good, and well, less bad when bad. To be fair, every pitcher has better numbers when generating a win than a loss, but Gibson has bee drastically more impressive. In 2014, the Twins starter owned a 1.42 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 5.7 K/9 in wins. He was hit around to the tune of an 11.04 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, and just a 4.6 K/9 in losses. 2015 has been a different story. This season, it's a dazzling 0.87 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9 in wins, with a better 7.38 ERA, 1.752 WHIP, and 6.0 K/9 in losses. Capitalizing on success, and limiting the damage, it's been a complete improvement for the former top prospect. Having taken a deeper diver into the good, it seems that Gibson is, if nothing else, targeted in his excellence. Needing to settle in and focus, he's at his best. Being stretched out and coming into a game, he can be taken advantage of. It's not all positive however. Arguably the most concerning numbers Kyle Gibson has produced in 2015 fall into the peripheral statistics category. Looking at FIP (fielding independent pitching) and BB/9, there's some cause for concern. Gibson owns a 4.07 FIP last year (compared to a 3.80 FIP in 2014) and a 3.0 BB/9 (up just 0.1 over 2014). There's some explanation for the former, but maybe not for the latter. A season ago, the Twins were historically bad defensively, especially in the outfield. For a guy who utilizes the ground ball, pitches shouldn't get to the outfield. Owning a 54.4% ground ball rate in 2014, the 52.7% mark this season is a step backwards. His increased line drive percentage (19.0% in 2014, 20.2% in 2015) also doesn't help things. While the outfield defense is markedly better now, Gibson is also making it work harder behind him. Although Gibson isn't walking a a much higher rate of batters, the fact that it hasn't decreased is less than ideal. Improvement in the strikeout category is a nice plus, but for a guy fanning only six per nine on average, three walks per nine is hefty. Gibson has utilized his changeup the most in his career in 2015 (19.5%), likely in large part to Allen's instruction. The increased pitch usage could be helping the strikeouts, while making the zone a bit more difficult to maintain. Right now, Gibson's walk rate isn't a problem, but toeing right in the middle of the line, you'd rather not see it become one either. So, here we are, some ups and some downs, but that's probably what you're going to get with Gibson. I'm not sure he ever looked the part of a one or two pitcher, but at this point it's fair to pencil him in as a solid number three. If the Twins make the playoffs, he can be trusted on the mound to keep you in the game, and really, that's about all you should be asking for. He's taken steps forward this season, and in an improved rotation, he's a big part of it. Kyle Gibson probably isn't ever going to be the guy, but he's proven he's far more than just a guy too. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. It's September, the Twins are above .500, and more importantly, in the midst of a playoff race. Outside of the calendar inevitably turning to September, none of those facts seemed guaranteed at the beginning of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. Regardless, here we are, and not it's time for the Twins to address the latter two. Minnesota has made their first wave of minor league call ups, looking to players like Kennys Vargas, A.J. Achter, Eric Fryer, and others. While many profile as little more than roster depth, there's some significant room for the Twins to bolster their playoff potential. Speaking of the playoffs, Minnesota currently trails the Texas Rangers in the AL Wild Card (as of this writing, by 1.5 games). Failing to make up ground, winning and losing on the same days, the Twins have been treading water for much of the past couple of weeks. As things stand currently, Fangraphs slots the Twins chances of making the playoffs at 17.6%. That mark trails both the Rangers (24.6%) and the Angels (28.4%). For the Twins to catch Texas and stay ahead of Los Angeles, they could do themselves favors by looking at some roster options. At this point, we are past the discussion as to whether or not Minnesota should be calling up Jose Berrios (to clear that up, they should have). What we do have in front of us though, is a 40 man roster that is not currently being utilized by Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. With roster expansion taking place in September, the active roster grows from 25 to 40, a mark the Twins remain far off from. Still needing to have players on the 40 man roster in order to be added to the active roster in September, the Twins aren't in a position to go prospect crazy. What they can do however, is add two key cogs that could be the difference. Right now, Minnesota has six players on the 40 man roster that are not yet in the big leagues. Those six players are Alex Meyer, Aaron Thompson, Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler. The last two players are the only currently slated for playoff baseball, thanks to Chattanooga's solid season at the Double-A level. That leaves Meyer, Thompson, Pinto, and Arcia as the odd ducks on the 40 man. Thompson was up for the Twins earlier in the year. The former top draft pick worked out well, until he was over-used and exposed. His major league ability may have topped out, and the Twins shouldn't rely on him any time soon. Pinto is still looking to get back to his former self at the plate following a lost season due to concussions. He can't catch right now, and the Twins don't necessarily need another bench bat. Finally, Arcia finished horribly for Rochester, and despite the fact that he's out of options in 2016, he doesn't give the Twins much benefit at the current time. Of the list, that leaves one. Alex Meyer. Minnesota promoted Meyer in June and allowed him to make his MLB debut on the 26th against the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed four earned runs in just 1.2 innings. After another earned run in one inning against the Reds, Meyer was sent back down to the farm. The former top prospect scuffled for the next month or so, but then something changed. From August 9th, through the end of the season, Alex Meyer went on to pitch 19.2 innings. He gave up just 12 hits, and while he walked eight, he struck out 21. His 0.46 ERA sparkled, and his .174/.275/.188 slash line against was impressive. To say the Twins return for Denard Span ended 2015 at Triple-A on a good not may be an understatement. Already of the 40 man, and the owner of a 9.8 K/9 in 2015, Meyer could provide a nice asset to a mediocre Twins pen in the final month. There's no doubt he's going to be given another shot to prove himself in 2016, and allowing that to happen in the midst of a playoff race would be great experience. Meyer doesn't deserve high leverage trust, but noting the Twins starting staff, he could prove plenty useful in the final few weeks. Then there's the currently exclusion on the active roster of Meyer's teammate, and a guy not on the 40 man roster, Mark Hamburger. Brought in by the Twins and given a chance during spring training, he fared well, but it wasn't enough. Spending the season with Rochester, Hamburger has flown relatively under the radar. With guys like Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin getting the in-season callups, Hamburger continued to bide his time. After a tough start to the season (operating as a starter), and an ugly seven earned run blip during early June, he's been great out of the pen. Since June 16, Hamburger owned a 0.79 ERA across 34.1 innings while allowing just 24 hits, three earned runs, and 28 strikeouts (walking just three). He was one of the most trusted Red Wings relievers in 2015, and opposing hitters slashed just .195/.213/.268 off of him. Having not been in the big leagues since 2011 with the Texas Rangers, it looks like his time may once again be here. Having traveled a long road back to where he is now, Hamburger could take over a 40 man spot for Thompson. Knowing what the lefty (Thompson) can provide the Twins, Molitor and his staff may be best served to utilize Hamburger's abilities on the 40 man instead. It's going to take an incredibly strong finish during the final month for the Twins to make the playoffs. With deadline acquired Kevin Jepsen already filling in for injured closer Glen Perkins, and a mediocre bullpen to start, it's there that the Twins need to focus. Hanging on to games late is a must for Molitor's club, and allowing another September 6 Houston Astros-like comeback can't happen again. Minnesota should have both Alex Meyer and Mark Hamburger in their bullpen sooner rather than later. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. It's 2015 and the Minnesota Twins are playing baseball in September. While that happens every season, what doesn't happen often (or at least for the past four seasons), is meaningful September baseball. Paul Molitor's club finds themselves in the thick of a heated wild card race with just over a month to play.The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to stay in the middle this season, and it could prove costly. For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game wild card playoff. In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having gone through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish. Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization, both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense. That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters. During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental, knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously. Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current wild card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All-Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future. Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back. With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug., Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug.), and two injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Choosing not to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future-damaging move, Minnesota stood pat. Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect. In holding him back, the club doesn't need to face service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more. Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could have ended up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control. By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them through September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt have benefitted the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring. Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. If promoted during September 2015, and then May 2016, the results on his service time would be as if he had not been promoted this season at all. Because of how they handled things, the Twins find themselves in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being hoped for. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?" The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top. For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article
  4. The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to stay in the middle this season, and it could prove costly. For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game wild card playoff. In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having gone through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish. Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization, both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense. That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters. During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental, knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously. Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current wild card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All-Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future. Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back. With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug., Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug.), and two injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Choosing not to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future-damaging move, Minnesota stood pat. Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect. In holding him back, the club doesn't need to face service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more. Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could have ended up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control. By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them through September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt have benefitted the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring. Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. If promoted during September 2015, and then May 2016, the results on his service time would be as if he had not been promoted this season at all. Because of how they handled things, the Twins find themselves in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being hoped for. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?" The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top. For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. For years, since he was 16 in fact, Miguel Sano has been billed as the next great star for the Minnesota Twins. Having been signed for a then record amount out of the Dominican Republic, the mammoth human being was eventually going to lay waste to major league pitching. Fast forward to 2015 and that time has come. Whether he has played the field enough or not, Sano is ready for his first piece of hardware. Sano debuted for the Twins on July 2nd. So far, he has played in 50 games, and compiled 176 at bats. Those at bats have resulted in 13 doubles, 14 home runs, 41 runs batted in, and a slash line of .295/.403/.608. For a guy who seems destined to hit somewhere around .270 for his career, he's off to a ridiculous start. What makes Sano's production maybe even more impressive, is just how strong he looks doing it. Sano's average exit velocity on balls put in play stands at a blistering 94.25 mph (second only to Giancarlo Stanton). He hit a ball 113 miles per hour once this year, and his *double* off the catwalk at The Trop left the bat at a ridiculous 110 miles per hour. Looking through Sano's peripherals, it is the strikeouts that jump off the board as a problem. With 76 whiffs in 176 at bats, Sano is striking out at a 43% clip. While not at all ideal, he continues to produce because of how hard the ball is it when put in play. Although a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) wasn't sustainable for Danny Santana a season ago, Sano's .432 mark should continue to remain high throughout his career. On the season, Sano has batted as the designated hitter for 41 of his 50 games, playing the field just nine times. Logging 77 innings at third with five more coming at first, Sano's 82 innings have failed to establish him as an all around player in his first year. However, with the bat coming through, the Twins star has produced a 2.1 fWAR mark to this point. So with such a strong season under his belt, Sano has to be the unquestioned AL Rookie of the Year right? Wrong (at least not in the minds of most). Carlos Correa, who has played SS in all 70 games since his call up this year, is seen as the more complete vote getter. On offense, Correa owns a .279/.347/.518 slash line, with 17 doubles and 16 home runs. He has driven in 45 runs, and is a big part of the reason the Houston Astros find themselves atop of the AL West. As mentioned briefly however, it has taken Correa 20 more games than Sano to reach those marks. Quantified as a whole, Correa has compiled a 2.8 fWAR on the season. With the main detractor for Sano being that he doesn't play the field, the defensive production of Correa should be examined. In just over 623 innings, Correa has been worth 0 DRS (defensive runs saved), while earning a -2.0 UZR (ultimate zone rating), and -5.5 UZR/150 (UZR per 150 defensive games). In other words, nothing that jumps off the page in the field. Should you extrapolate Sano's production offensively to mirror the 70 games Correa has played, here is what you would come up with: 18 doubles, 19 home runs, 57 runs batted in, and 2.9 fWAR. Considering Sano has continued to push the envelope in terms of projections, those numbers may actually be share of what real performance would look like. With 31 games left to go for the Twins, Sano still has plenty of time to make his final statement. The fact that his biggest competition plays the field though, should not be the detractor when it comes to deciding a winner. Despite significantly less opportunity at his disposal, Sano has caught up to Correa, and has him within striking distance. At the end of the day, it's a fair argument that Miguel Sano deserves his first hardware in the form of the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year. What may be more important though is that the production continues to pave the way for Sano to be at the forefront of helping Minnesota to bring their own hardware to Twins Territory in the years to come. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. The 2015 Major League Baseball season wasn't supposed to go the way it has for the Minnesota Twins for many different reasons. Most notable, is the fact that Paul Molitor's club is in playoff position a year before they were expected to be. Surprisingly, there are a few expected contributors that are missing from the fold however. Maybe most glaringly of the bunch are two relievers, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed. Minnesota selected both Burdi and Reed with 2014 draft picks. Burdi was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of Louisville, while Reed went to the Twins in the 5th out of Oregon. Both players put together solid debut seasons, and Reed then went on to impress during the Arizona Fall League. With a good amount of momentum rolling behind them, both players looked like a 2015 MLB splash could be in the cards. Until it wasn't. Burdi's first outing of the season for Double-A Chattanooga was of the four run blowup variety, grabbing just two outs. By June 25, he owned a 5.93 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .775 OPS off of him. For Reed, things weren't much prettier. Three outings in, he allowed his first run. It snowballed to a 5.56 ERA and a .281/.366/.388 slash line by Aug 6th. Both players were then met with even more adversity. The Lookouts ultimately gave Burdi the hook first, with him being demoted at the end of June. Reed would stay with the Double-A club until early August, before assuming the same fate. Now being sent down to High-A Fort Myers, a level both seemed above, confidence needed to be regained. Pitching in his first game of 2015 for Fort Myers on July 2nd, Burdi registered four strikeouts in two innings pitched. After 13 games a level below, he had compiled a 2.25 ERA, a 13.05 K/9, and baffled opposing hitters to the tune of a .179/.208/.239 ERA. Since, he has been promoted back to Double-A Chattanooga, and owns a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings. Still down at Fort Myers, Reed has found himself as well. Having skipped over the level a season ago, Reed was getting his first taste of the Florida State League. Now with 11.1 innings under his belt, the former Duck looks every bit as dominating as he was once billed. A 0.00 ERA with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, Reed is overpowering hitters allowing just a .211/.225/.211 slash line. Now with the season set to wrap up, the next hurdle has appeared for the two flamethrowers. Both have been assigned to take part in the Arizona Fall League as representatives for the Twins. Playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, Reed will be repeating the league after an impressive 2014 showing (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). Burdi will be making his first appearance. As Reed did last year, both pitchers can use the next challenge as a new opportunity. Despite being something they both likely believed they were past, a strong Fall League showing, could have heightened 2016 implications. With a Twins bullpen that will no doubt undergo a significant amount of turnover, candidates will need to emerge. Both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi continue to profile as key cogs in the Twins bullpen for years to come. Possessing high velocity arms, and strikeout stuff that has not been synonymous with the Twins for quite some time (or ever), the excitement level is there. Although 2015 didn't turn out to be what was once expected, a refresh button has appeared. Having had the opportunity to interview both Reed and Burdi in the past, betting against them a second time around doesn't seem like a good practice. These are two names you may want to get familiar with. With the Arizona Fall League as their proving ground, the next step could be within reach. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. In a vacuum, sure. Getting into the top 10 to make a run isn't going to happen through tightrope walking.
  8. You bring up two key issues that I continue to be frustrated with as well. Firstly, with how this situation was handled, how anyone could believe with certainty Berrios would be in the 2016 OD rotation is tough. He should be, but the last couple months suggest even more reasons why he may not be. In regards to being put through an auditioning period only to have the output ignored, the Twins did the same type of thing to Vargas early on in the year.
  9. It's 2015 and the Minnesota Twins are playing baseball in September. While that happens every season, what doesn't happen often (or at least for the past four seasons), is meaningful September baseball. Paul Molitor's club finds themselves in the thick of a heated Wild Card race with just over a month to play. The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to toe the middle this season, and it could prove costly. For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game Wild Card playoff. In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having went through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish. Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition, that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense. That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters. During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously. Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current Wild Card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future. Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back. With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug, Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug), and injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Not needing to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future deterring move, Minnesota stood pat. Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324 against him. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect. In holding him back, the club doesn't need to answer to service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more. Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could end up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control. By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them to September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt benefit the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring. Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. In promoting during September 2015, and then May 2016, Berrios's service time implications would be as if he was not promoted this season at all. Because of handling things how they did, the Twins find themselves right in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being perceived. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?" The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top. For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. 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  10. With August officially coming to a close, and the Twins just a game back in the Wild Card standings, Paul Molitor's club is in uncharted territory. For the past four seasons, losing has been all the Twins have known. Now with a chance to play meaningful September baseball, promotions take on a whole different meaning. As the Rochester Red Wings finished off a 4-2 win to end the month of August, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan watched the action unfold as he decided who he would bring back north with him. Upon exiting the Triple-A clubhouse for what can be assumed the last time in 2015, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, A.J. Achter, and Michael Tonkin were headed back to the big leagues. Vargas had been all over the system in 2015 having played with the Twins, and as low as Double-A. Santana was being forced to prove that 2014 was more than a flash in the pan. Tonkin had been up and down more times than he'd like to admit, and Achter was still looking for his time to be long enough to make an impression. They now would all get to write the next chapter of their story. The biggest news out of Rochester though, was who wasn't called up. Having been informed that the Twins decision maker, Ryan, was there to watch him. Being told that a few solid performances could be the final push to get to the big leagues. With the knowledge in the back of his mind, Jose Berrios pitched. His 3.08 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga didn't matter now, and nor did his 9.1 K/9 a step down. Not even his already impressive track record at Triple-A Rochester. What mattered were the few starts being watched by the man who held his fate in his hands. With Ryan on hand, Berrios pitched to the tune of 13 one run innings. He gave up just seven hits and struck out 17 while walking just one batter. His 0.69 ERA was near flawless, and opposing hitters mustered just a .146/.163/.229 line against him. At the end of it all though, it was deemed not enough. Despite Kyle Gibson owning an ERA of 6.00 in August, forgetting that Tommy Milone had been hit around to a 5.40 mark over his last three starts, and negating the fact that one brilliant outing overshadowed a 9.12 ERA for Ervin Santana in the past month, Ryan decided there was no room for Berrios. With nearly 160 innings pitched under his belt, this was Berrios opportunity to make a contribution at the next level. There's two trains of thought that could provide answers for the most obvious reasons to overlook such a needed commodity in Minnesota. The first, is Berrios' workload itself. Having pitched a career high 139.2 innings a season ago, a 20% increase was fast approaching. Whether of the belief that should be a hard stop to avoid arm damage for a young player or not, the Twins would no doubt want to exercise caution with the 21 year old. Despite Berrios being in the best shape of his life (as quickly noticed by his offseason program), the long term health should continue to remain at the forefront. His big league contribution (from a health standpoint) would have made a lot of sense sometime in August, and no doubt would have afforded the Twins more work earlier on in the shutdown process. On the flip side, there is baseball as a business. A team like the Twins generally is going to do what they can to keep control over young assets. Without the lucrative TV deal allowing spending to be amongst the league's best, smart contracts loom large. Berrios has a service clock that has yet to start, and a September call up would reverse that fact. The problem with both of the reasons not to bring up what no doubt could be a key cog for the stretch run, is that both issues are somewhat simply addressed. On the health side of things, Terry Ryan was in person to watch Berrios is his most recent outings. Showing no signs of slowing down, the sentiment that Ryan suggested in regards to his limit being based on feel, seems little more than lip service. A 20% increase in innings is far from a gold standard, and once again, Berrios has done nothing but show he wants more. In regards to service time, contracts, and controllability, the Twins decide to gamble on the future. While Berrios' service time would start with a September call up, a year of arbitration is not immediately lost. Had the Twins called him up now, and then held him at Triple-A until May 2016 (rather than starting with the Twins out of Spring Training), they would have saved the same year of service time. No doubt the practice would frustrate an agent, but the same can be said about the current handling. At the end of the day, the Twins are in a position that no one expected them to be. Above .500 and competing for a playoff spot in the season's final month, an opportunity presented itself. Rather than capitalize on where they are currently, Terry Ryan decided to gamble and hope that in 2022 (when Berrios' final year of team control comes into play), matters just as much. Minnesota could have positioned themselves for a playoff run now, in 2016, and going forward. Instead, they chose to play the "we're just happy to be here" card, and act as though 2015 is nothing more than a participation trophy. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Polanco's biggest asset is his bat, and it hasn't been good of late. Achter I could take or leave. The rest make sense.
  12. Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim. Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves. Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way. Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must. However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight. Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. This goes without saying...of course they are always going to side with taking on more. As I mentioned, a realistic number would be 20 more innings, or the same 175-180 threshold you have him at.
  14. Having spoken to Berrios and his trainer, it sounds like his body has responded pretty well and they are both happy with where he's at. I'd guess he's got another 20 innings in him, or roughly three starts. I don't see the Twins bringing him up to pitch out of the pen. If they do, I believe he starts. While being somewhat on the fence a week ago, I'd be on board with getting him up now. Losing the year of service time is a concern, but you are going to end up paying regardless if he's that good. Still contending while just tip toeing around aggressiveness, Berrios is a controllable move that could put you over that top.
  15. August comes to a close, the Twins have rebounded from a lackluster middle of the summer, and an AL Wild Card spot is once again in the cards. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have paced the offense, and Paul Molitor's club is rolling. Heading into September, there's one more weapon the Twins have at their disposal however: La Maquina. Spanish for "The Machine," La Maquina describes and defines Jose Berrios in a way no other phrase can. The Puerto Rican superstar has put together another amazing season in the Twins farm system, and Terry Ryan is running out of reasons not to deploy him. With Berrios laying waste to opposing hitters, he very well could be the final missing piece to helping the Twins capitalize on their good fortune this season. A year ago, Berrios blitzed the Twins system. Generally regarded for slow-playing even the best prospects. Berrios pitched at three different levels in 2014. Making 16 starts for Fort Myers, followed by eight for New Britain, and finally a spot start for Triple-A Rochester, it appeared Berrios had arrived. Unfortunately, not everyone saw it that way. Keith Law had Berrios in the 90's when it came to his top prospect list. The Twins invited him as a non-roster guy to Spring Training, but he was shipped out rather quickly. All of it has fueled Berrios' fire. In 2015, he's done everything possible to substantiate his impressive 2014. With a 3.08 ERA in 15 Double-A starts, he's actually been even better at Triple-A Rochester. For the Red Wings, Berrios owns a 2.78 ERA across 10 starts and 64.2 innings. He's compiled a career high 155.1 IP and owns a 10.2 K/9 at the highest level of the farm. Since giving up four and five earned runs respectively in his first two Triple-A starts, Berrios has put together a run of 54.0 IP allowing just 38 hits, 12 runs (11 earned), walking nine, striking out 61, all to the tune of a 1.83 ERA. Opposing batters are slashing just .197/.252/.316 off of him, and it all adds up to Berrios being nothing short of dominant. Since being under the microscope in August, Berrios has taken his game to yet another level. With a September call-up being a possibility, the Twins best pitching prospect has reeled off performances of 12, 10, eight, and nine strikeouts in his last four outings respectively. To put icing on the cake, it was the 12 strikeout, three hit performance on August 26th that general manager Terry Ryan was in the stands for. Keeping Berrios at the Triple-A level is no doubt the business side of baseball. Not yet on the 40 man roster, the Twins would need to do some finagling to get him up to the big leagues. More than that however, his service time would begin, and Minnesota would lose out on an extra year of team control. Down the line, that no doubt could cost a team generally looking to maximize their spending. On the flip side, the Twins absolutely had no business being in the spot they currently find themselves in. Beginning to compete a year ahead of schedule, and doing so with top prospects in tow, Molitor's boys have presented an intriguing situation. With a month left of games to go, it's Berrios that undoubtedly could provide the final boost to put the Twins over the top. If the top prospect ends up being the pitcher the Twins expect him to be, he's going to need to get paid down the line. Minnesota will need to cough up the cash earlier than expected if his promotion happens, but maximizing winning potential when it's there may make sense. A worst case scenario may look like a Berrios promotion only to miss the playoffs, but that experience could prove vital in a more important 2016 season anyways. How the Twins value future cash flow and contract status will likely be the determining factor, but considering how this club has performed against the odds thus far, Berrios would be a welcomed final piece. Terry Ryan dipped his toes in the water when he traded for Kevin Jepsen and Neal Cotts, but now it's time to dive in. Unleash La Maquina. More: From Puerto Rico To The Pros: The Jose Berrios Story For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Boyer was actually activated and Graham DL'd today. I believe my thought process is DL moves are fluid so don't touch.
  17. Full disclosure, for whatever reason, I decided to not consider anyone on the DL currently (ie Boyer).
  18. Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot. For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block. Pitchers: A.J. Achter-RHP Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen. Logan Darnell-LHP The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though. Brian Duensing-LHP Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper. Casey Fien-RHP This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it. Ryan O'Rourke-LHP Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen. Aaron Thompson-LHP Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not. Jason Wheeler-LHP A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use. Position Players: Chris Herrmann-C Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that. Eduardo Nunez-Util Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense. Shane Robinson-OF If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable. Oswaldo Arcia-OF Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore. With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. It wasn't supposed to go like this. Minnesota was not at all defined as a surprise team in 2015. In a stacked AL Central, it was the Twins who were supposed to be sellers, and once again teeter on the brink of losing 90 games. Fortunately, none of that has played out as expected,but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and hard decisions. Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL wild card positioning. The Twins were in firm control of a playoff spot, but a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock them out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a roller coaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament. In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline time frame, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen. The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That raises the question, what do the Twins see themselves as? Typically, a rental-type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking for somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling. With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however. Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season. On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40-man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40-man). At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision-making. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it and how things turn out. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected. Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight. Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating which direction the club goes at the crossroads it currently finds itself at. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article
  20. Very likely this is exactly what happened, and to take it further, the absolute right move. However, rubbing Neal Cotts at this point is the wrinkle that makes it all seem a little contradictory. Giving up next to nothing or not, Cotts would fit into the win in 2015 narrative.
  21. but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and hard decisions. Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL wild card positioning. The Twins were in firm control of a playoff spot, but a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock them out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a roller coaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament. In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline time frame, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen. The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That raises the question, what do the Twins see themselves as? Typically, a rental-type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking for somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling. With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however. Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season. On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40-man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40-man). At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision-making. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it and how things turn out. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected. Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight. Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating which direction the club goes at the crossroads it currently finds itself at. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. It wasn't supposed to go like this, Minnesota was not at all defined as a surprise team in 2015. In a stacked AL Central, it was the Twins who were supposed to be sellers, and once again teeter on the brink of losing 90 games. Fortunately, none of that has played out as expected, but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and tough decisions. Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL Wild Card positioning. Once in firm control of a playoff spot, a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock the Twins out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a rollercoaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament. In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline timeframe, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen. The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That begs the question, what do the Twins see themselves as? Typically, a rental type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking to be somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling. With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make somewhat of a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however. Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season. On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40 man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40 man). At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected. Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight. Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating just how the club handles the crossroads it currently finds itself at. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Tyler Duffey twirled his second straight impressive start for the Minnesota Twins as they took on the Orioles in Baltimore. The 24 year-old righty mowed down eight Orioles hitters, and he was on cruise control from the word go. As he's now made it two straight impressive starts, heads are starting to turn. The question is, should they be? And why wasn't Twins Territory already on notice? Duffey was a 5th round pick out of Rice University by the Twins back in 2012. This season, he saw his first eight starts at Double-A Chattanooga, where he was the Opening Day starter. In and of itself that's noteworthy, considering it was Duffey (not Jose Berrios), that manager Doug Mientkiewicz gave the ball to kick off the season. He made that decision look wonderful as Duffey worked 6.2 innings giving up just four hits while striking out 10 Montgomery Biscuit batters. Since, he hasn't looked back. On the season, Duffey has struck out eight or more batters in a game six times in 25 starts. He has 10 and 12 strikeout performances, and his eight strikeouts against the Orioles on Thursday night were the most by a Twins pitcher since July 5 when Ervin Santana sat down eight Royals. In his 25 starts, Duffey has given up more than three earned runs just five times, and he's held team scoreless ten times. In 2015, the Twins have been aggressive with the consistently impressing Duffey. After pitching to the tune of a 2.56 ERA across eight Double-A starts (while owning a 9.3 K/9), Duffey found himself at Triple-A Rochester. The success came with him as he compiled a 2.72 ERA across 13 starts. After a tough first test at the big league level, it appears Duffey has arrived for the Twins too. Starting against the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles, Duffey has put together 13.2 innings of impressive pitching. He's surrendered just 11 hits, two earned runs, and five walks, all while fanning 15 batters. Across those two starts, opposing hitters are batting just .224/.296/.265 off of him. By all early indications, it would appear as though Duffey is here to stay. 8.08, 6.44, 6.25, and 5.53 are the Twins current starters K/9 (May, Gibson, Milone, and Santana). Duffey finds himself the owner of a 9.19 mark through his first three big league starts. On a team starved for strikeouts, Duffey is providing the gold standard. As he continues to see turns in a major league rotation, Duffey will only have a chance to get better. Currently throwing his hammer curve right around 30% of the time, the Twins have to be ecstatic about just how good of a pitch the former Rice Owl has at his disposal. Duffey is also getting batters to chase a healthy amount in generating swings at pitches outside of the zone just over 35% of the time. It's safe to say he's working into a groove, and making the game come to him. A driven, motivated, and level-headed individual, Tyler Duffey has the opportunity to be a key cog for winning Twins teams in the years to come. Although not billed with the hype of other top pitching prospects, Duffey's performances are begging you to take notice all on their own. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. People, stop suggesting this...like forever...please, be better.
  25. August 20, 2015 is a day that will hopefully go down in history for the Minnesota Twins. While baseball's (and the Twins) number on prospect has already debuted at the big league level, it's on this day that Minnesota is hoping he never goes back to the farm. Entering a major league lineup with Miguel Sano for the first time, the Twins have their future franchise cornerstones in place. Although 2015 is just a starting point for Buxton, there's a few things I'd like to see from him over the final month and a half. In his first stint with the big league club, Buxton slashed just .189/.231/.270 across 11 games before hitting the disabled list with a thumb injury. For a guy that has torn through the minor leagues, the output was less than stellar. Knowing full well that his bat would take some time, the slow start isn't anything to be disappointed with. That said, there's a few other things that should be keyed in on for the 21 year-old. 1. Controlled But Unlimited Effort Often times in the world of sports (more often football), you'll hear about a player's motor. Byron Buxton has one of the highest running motors in all of baseball. Not only does he absolutely fly, but he's going at 110%, 100% of the time. While that trait is something that the Twins no doubt have to enjoy, it's when it becomes detrimental that there is a problem. Much like Bryce Harper before him, Buxton needs to play the final month of the season with an understanding of what controlled effort looks like. He has been shelved the past two seasons after colliding with a teammate, and sliding on a steal. He has routinely smashed into fences, and has obliterated his lanky frame. The punishment he has put on his body has been nothing short of drastic. Suggesting Buxton play the game of baseball differently is not something that I would be behind. However, Torii Hunter should be in Buxton's ear helping him to feel through how to give the same level of effort, without sacrificing his ability to be on the field for his team. Protecting himself while going into the wall, or getting his hands up when sliding into a bag are minor changes that Buxton can make, while still utilizing his style. In the remainder of the season, Buxton needs to continue to play with the same type of effort, with a bit more regard for his body. 2. Improved Approach At The Plate For the Twins, Buxton was immediately going to be an elite, if not Gold Glove caliber, centerfielder. He is that fast, and that good with his glove. What he wasn't going to do was hit. Despite being a career .301 hitter in the minors, Buxton needed to get a feel for big league pitching. He fell somewhat flat in starting out hitting below the Mendoza Line in his first taste at the MLB level. For a guy who owns a 245/135 K/BB ratio across 276 minor league games, Buxton's 15/2 K/BB ratio with the Twins wasn't a good start. The best thing that happened to him however was a stint in Triple-A. Now facing pitchers capable of spinning curveballs and other breaking pitches, Buxton was forced to alter his approach, and become a more patient hitter. In 13 games, he did just that. Striking out 12 times while drawing four walks, Buxton had hits in each of his 13 games for Triple-A Rochester. How owned a .400/.441/.545 slash line, and collected three doubles, a triple, and a home run. It's safe to say that he's headed back to the show with a significant amount of confidence in his corner. You'd be crazy to think that Buxton is going to bat anywhere near .400 at the major league level, and he may not even reach a .300 mark. What the Twins have to be hoping for though, is that Buxton can hit around .280 the rest of the way, while striking out less, and utilizing his speed to pick up extra base hits. 3. Make The Speed Play As things stand, the Twins have stolen just 55 bases as a team (in 2013, Buxton stole that many on his own). The club leader is Brian Dozier, with 10 (he's the only Twins player with double digits). Byron Buxton needs to be the catalyst in reversing that poor output. Buxton is a definite stolen base threat, but swiping bases at the big league level is much more than just speed. With 22 steals to his credit this season, Buxton has plenty of speed on his side. What he needs to accomplish throughout the last month and a half of the season, is to perfect his jump and learn big league pitchers. Paul Molitor has allowed his Twins team to be more aggressive on the bases this season. For Buxton, he needs to be the leader when it comes to taking the extra base, as well as stealing them. After his recent thumb injury, head first slides shouldn't be avoided, but rather perfected. If Buxton can hone in his jump on pitchers, as well as his sliding ability, he will go into 2016 with another weapon at his disposal. 4. Drop A Bomb Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are vastly different players. The former has the ability to hit 30 home runs on a season-by-season basis (maybe even 40), while the latter will top out around 20. However, Buxton definitely does have a power stroke involved in his game. If he can launch his first home run at the MLB level in the final month and a half, it takes another pressure off of his plate for the upcoming season. Really, that's more what Buxton hitting his first big league home run is about. If he can remove the distraction of "firsts" this season, it allows him to go into 2016 focused on a clean slate. First home run, first steal, first triple, etc. are things that Buxton doesn't need to worry about in a season where has is going to be dubbed "the man" in the outfield. In his best year, Buxton will likely have a chance to hit around 15-20 homers as he adds more muscle to his frame. If he can enjoy some late season milestones for the Twins in 2015, he will set himself up for a 2016 in which he can worry about letting the game come to him. 5. Top The Lineup Often Byron Buxton has just 11 games with the Twins under his belt, and he spent nine of those contests batting out of the nine hole. The two games in which Buxton led off, he hit .333/.333/.444 for the Twins (small sample size I know). The bigger point though is that a leadoff hitter is exactly what Buxton is. On the season, Molitor has gone most often with Brian Dozier out of the leadoff spot. More recently, the role was given to Aaron Hicks. Hicks makes sense in that spot without Buxton in the lineup, but Dozier rarely does. Dozier is a home run hitter who is being forced to settle for solo blasts each time he's lined up as the table setter. For Minnesota, especially with Hicks on the shelf, leadoff should be Buxton or bust. It's probably fair to slowly integrate baseball's top prospect back into the lineup. If Molitor wants to bat him 7th-9th for a game or two, that's fine. However, realtively early on, Buxton needs to assume the leadoff spot for the Twins. It's going to be his role in 2016, and settling into it over the final part of this season will no doubt pay dividends later. Give Buxton 90% of the leadoff at bats the rest of the way; just another way to remove jitters going into the ever-important 2016 season. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano in the same big league lineup is going to be a lot of fun. While it may not make much of a difference in 2015, it no doubt signifies the changing of the guard for the Twins, and them paving the way into the future. If Buxton can leverage his 2015 experience into the 2016 season, the entire big leagues should be on notice. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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