Alex
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Everything posted by Alex
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Maybe I just see things differently but I am getting tired of this narrative, one pushed by the Twins. The problem, and what shapes the perception, is that the Twins don't fall into the category of team in your last sentence. They don't have interest in signing "key" or impact FA. You are probably right that in general starting pitchers are valued and locked up by their teams more than, say, corner OF, but that doesn't mean this year was weak in comparison to other years.
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I've never been to Twins Fest, and normally wouldn't consider going, but my daughter is a huge Joe Mauer fan (she went as him for Halloween) and would love to meet him this year. We also have two free tickets. I noticed that players, like Joe, are available at certain times. I'm assuming he's got the most wait time, but does anyone know what the lines/wait time are like? Any info or experience would be much appreciated. Thanks!
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I'd like to see Gibson start in AAA, much for the same reason I'd have liked to have seen Dozier, Parmalee last year (and Hicks this year, too, though I know we disagree on that one) start and have success in AAA before moving up. With the way this team is shaping up, there's no reason not to make sure these guys are ready. Frankly, to see how the Twins were going to mold their pitching staff was one of the most exciting things about this offseason, but when we make one exciting, interesting addition (Worley) and our #3 starter is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, who starts behind him among those I listed below is relatively moot, not to mention depressing. I have hope for Hendriks, but he's struggled, but I don't see how they deny him a spot in this rotation. I'd pick one of the guys that pitched last year like Deduno or Devries, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Duensing or Swarzak as a short term hold out. How exciting is that? That sound I hear the summer breeze gently brushing 20,000 empty seats.....
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For me the signing of Correia is symptomatic of a bigger problem and full of contradictions, so arguing he has value on a terrible team doesn't fit. The Twins could have cobbled 30 starts out of some combination of Swarzack, Hendriks, Deduno, Devries, and Walters. If Kevin Correia gets 30 starts on a division winner, it at least means the rest of your staff is, you know, good. The only place he gets 30 stars is on a terrible team. Heck, he couldn't even cut it in the Pirates rotation for a full season. I actually I agree that it's the Twins who have spent money to spend it in his case.
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I'd agree that he has far less leverage this year which makes the non-signing last year baffling to me.
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Fair concerns, but there's a cap on international money already and the money saved by his contract just goes into someone's pockets. Signing him won't affect that.
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Not as much of a concern in Target Field and his HR/9 isn't bad. Though, I guess with our outfield fly balls could be a problem....
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I think the Twins are in a position to legitimately overpay and take a risk to go 2/20 if that's what it takes (maybe with a team option?). Their salary obligations drop considerably over the next three years that this is a risk they can take. It's not something I'd say they should do with multiple players, but if there's ever an opportunity, it's now.
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I'm not convinced this puts them even in the middle of the pack. It would be interesting to see how many stats guys other teams have in comparison and I think that would give us a better idea.
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I'm sure we can mince data and statistics (For example 2.0 WAR is representative of starter at any position, so calling it the median, is, imo, misleading, especially when the bottom is not zero). Even if we agree to use yours, which I will for this post, then we agree that it would be the same as last year. Not better, not thin. Fine. Moving on. Please go here: Minnesota Twins 2012 Pitching Statistics - ESPN (I used this for a nice easy sort) You'll note that the Twins starting staff had a combined negative WAR, and it's not really even close, sadly. Only one pitcher, Scott Diamond, had a WAR over 2 (2.2). Deduno and Deveries were the only other two positive WAR pitchers at a whopping .6 and .2. Nick Blackburn was a -2.3 WAR pitcher. So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs. Do you know what Correia's WAR was? -.1. While WAR is an ambiguous stat, it points out why people are flabbergasted by the signing. Cole Devries in that spot would be an improvement and save $9M dollars. I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.
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The source is Darren Wolfson who's pretty plugged in, and they're referencing him, just to be clear.
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Listen to the podcast with Wolfson. It's the best information you're going to get on the topic. It's discussed at length. #73
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Listening to G and G podcast now. Here are the rough numbers: Gleeman mentions he remembers something like thirty pitchers better than Correia available. Also that about 10 signed 1 year deals. So, how is the market so thin again? They also mention, based on Wolfson's info, based on another podcast that the Twins never really made offers to many of the players we've talked about, essentially refuting the point that some have been arguing that we don't know whether or not they've made offers.
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This isn't about not fielding a good team.... It's about not even making simple moves to field an interesting, competitive team for the next season. It's about doing the exact opposite of what the stated benefit would be from a stadium funded heavily with taxpayer dollars. Most of us realized they weren't going to the World Series this year, or even the playoffs, but give me something to watch. Give me a reason to come out to the field rather than the beautiful field itself, which by the way, is going to see another precipitous drop in attendance this year if this is how the offseason remains. One argument here is that FA don't want to come to the Twins. I don't buy it, but guess what you need to do to get them here if that IS the case? You need to pay them actually money and you need to be competitive. A team that pushes .500 next season would make it look like the Twins are at least interested in being competitive and not putting all their chips in for a farm system that looks promising but may never arrive at the level we hope.
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Thers's no way this FA market was thin for starting pitching, no way. If you think this, you need to take a look at the market in previous years and remember this one for next. Though, if you're the Twins and want decent pitching for under $5M your market will always be thin.
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Lohse has had some good years, no doubt. Of course, you realize Lohse has NO ONE make him an offer. He's said as much. There's a particular reason he's not a better fix, especially for th Twins even if we thought the Twins would be interested in him (bad blood there, though) and it's the reason no one is interested in him. He costs a draft pick to sign since he received a qualifying offer. Not to mention, if Marcum is out of the Twins price range, Lohse certainly is even if he didn't come with the additional tax of a draft pick.
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if you think this is a weak FA market,especially in terms of the kinds of money the Twins would spend, I don't kno what to tell you. Other people have done a much better job explaining than I have. The Twins GMhandbook lists them all, Bonnes and Gleeman discussed it at length on a podcast using specific comparisons and Gleeman (and probably others) wrote blogs about it. Yes, there was one ace available, but there were a ton of pitchers avaliable that could have fit into a reasonable price range based on the current market and be sustainable frontof the rotation guys. Your concern about question marks on those pitchers is very weak, considering most of the, are proven ML pitchers, of which the ones we're waiting for are not and the others that we've added have the EXACT same issues. Pitchers just aren't durable these days, period. If you think this season players are overpriced, wait until you see what happens when hundreds of millions flood the market next season. As a side not to an older discussion, the Angels explained one reason they wouldn't be interested in Lohse was because they don't think his numbers will hold on a return to the AL.
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Yeah, that's what I was referring to with the extra tens of millions that every team will be getting. Those making excuses and worrying about money in the future, don't realize the Twins have it in abundance in future years. Their comments are also very tied to Marcum, but there were a lot more available pitchers the Twins could have gone after. He's all that's left and it's convenient that they have the excuse of his arm (and they're correct it could be a bigger question mark). That's what we're left with, though.
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As others mentioned, the Twins don't do this. Last year, their excuse for slashing payroll was that they had a lot of picks in the draft. This year, no such excuse is available. In what could likely be the richest pitching FA market in years past and for years to come. The Twins philosophy was never to spend for top in FA, but that was supposed to change with Target Field. None of us are asking Pujols type contracts and none of us were foolish enough to think Greinke would be on the table. We're talking mid-rotation guys. Seriously, the Twins gave Pavano 3 years for 24.5M THREE years ago. We can't risk 3/30 or heck even 3/45 for likely a better pitcher, especially considering available funds over the next 3 years? People have made mention of Twins payroll space of their own, but few people have reminded the apologists here that they are getting additional tens of millions next year (like every team) So yes, they can afford it. Of course, that's a double edged sword and one the Twins will likely use as an excuse since the price of FA has gone up and probably will next year ("These guys are asking ridiculous amounts!"). Anybody aware of this change should have been able to guess it would affect this year's contracts.
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No other team is in need of starting pitching like the Twins. Seriously, none. They were the worst staff in the majors by a long shot. So, no other team has the need nor should have the same plan. And , yet again, in order to refute the idea that the Twins are extremely wise, I give you exhibit A, Kevin Correia. Specifically with Marcum, fine. However it's not like he was/is the only option this offseason, thou he is one of the few left now because the Twins didn't compete with other offers.
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I can give the Twins "some" leeway on this. After all the years of success and picking at the end of the draft, that talent pool was bound to dry up, even if I do think part of it is being behind in terms of talent evaluation. At least, have some promising young hitters in the system now that we can look forward to seeing in a couple of years.
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I agree. I think that, especially in terms of pitching signings and evaluation of FA, they are well behind the curve on value and the shape of the market.
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I realize this wasn't your central point, but I do think this comment needs to be put in context because I see it's ilk often. In 2011, the Twins top two salaries weren't on the field most of the season and they didn't go out and spend that money (112M) on a decent FA pitcher, either. Span was injured often as well. This means that much of the season, their lineup was manned by minimum wage players. That payroll certainly isn't representative of what the Twins would have actually paid for and wanted to field that season. Then, in 2012 they cut the payroll, and that certainly didn't work out better. You could argue that the opposite is true. With a healthy lineup they weren't able to produce a significant number of wins above the previous year. Sure, Baker was hurt and Pavano declined, but they certainly had room to spend. Instead they went into the season with no depth in their starting pitching and relied on a coin flip. We all know how that turned out. --- Discussing this has reminded me of another argument entirely. Remember when there were people saying the Mauer's salary was holding this team back or that the right thing for him to do would be to renegotiate his pay so the Twins could be competitive? I think the last two off-seasons have shown us the ridiculousness of that argument, not to mention next season they'll have a lot more to spend then even this year but again, probably won't. I'm starting to think the right thing for Mauer to do is request a trade.
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' I can't tell if this is a joke.... It's not the NL pitchers can't pitch. It's that NL pitchers don't face the same competition and their NL numbers will likely drop when they move to the AL.
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Not to turn this into a Morris HOF debate, it does add to the discussion of pitcher evaluation. Here's a comparison of the run support Jack Morris got when compared both with Bert Blyleven and his own peers and how that affected his record: The Effects of Run Support | Mario Soto's Blog | FanNation.com. The TLDR version is that if they flipped run support, Blyleven would have been an easier and earlier inclusion and Morris wouldn't have a chance. I love Morris for Game 7, but I realize two things. One, he got the win even in that game because his fielder, Chuck Knoblauch faked Lonnie Smith out, saving a run (and what would have been the game), and two, he'd be by far the worst pitcher elected to the HOF. That said, I have nothing against people that vote for him because he performed well overall in the World Series games he pitched in. But, back to your question about WHIP, one of the problems with it is it relies again on defense. It's not terrible, but a good defense is going to prevent hits as well on balls that should be hits and a terrible defense is going to turn should be outs into hits. As for innings eaters, I like what Aaron Gleeman says about durabilty. You're only durable until you're not. One one of his and Bonnes's offseason podcasts last year, they debated the value of Pavano. Bonnes called Pavano an innings eater. Of course, he ate very few innings last season. Certainly some pitchers are more fragile but any pitcher is just an injury away from no longer eating innings.