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TRex

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Everything posted by TRex

  1. TRex
    I know it seems like a foreign concept to most of us Twins fans, but these prospects can be turned into 'great' starting pitchers, and it can be even faster than drafting them. Buxton is already a top-10 prospect and if he has a fairly good year in low-A, don't you think he would be a great centerpiece for next years crop of 'soon to be too expensive' arbitration eligible pitchers (e.g. David Price/Gio Gonzalez/Zack Greinke/Matt Latos/CC Sabathia/?Matt Garza?). Last offseason, Terry Ryan was said to be making a run at Johnny Cueto of the Reds, so we know he is capable of that type of thinking. And I think we have plenty of payroll room to accommodate these Arbitration Eligible guys, and can even afford to buy out their first year of FA eligibility.
  2. TRex
    Kwak, Not to hijack the thread, but I think everyone who watched Valencia (and DYoung) launch bomb after bomb onto the Budweiser Deck in batting practice knew... now whether we chose to believe or not is another thing.
  3. TRex
    I am personally hoping for the Rick Aguilera scenario, where we: 1) trade Morneau to a contender (where he can get to the post-season but not win the WS) 2) receive a MI (instead of OF) prospect and hard-throwing A-ball pitcher (Franky Rodriguez). 3) re-sign Morneau to a 3 year $30 million deal for 2014-2016.
  4. TRex
    I actually like this format a lot, and do not find it difficult to keep track of the order.
  5. TRex
    Why is May in there instead of Alex Meyer (who I voted for #3)? Especially since May is in the next preliminary round!
  6. TRex
    Hey Parker, I guess I didn't explain my point well enough, and please understand that, to a point, it is purely semantics and I agree with the overall premise, so let me try again. I think your example of BABIP is a great comparison because you can say that someone is likely to perform worse next year because they had the highest BABIP of their life OR you could say they are likely to do better next year because they had the lowest BABIP of their career. However, I haven't ever seen anyone say a hitter is likely to hit more HR next year because he had very few "Just Enough" HR this year.
  7. TRex
    Sincere question... You are using HitTracker to predict a decrease in Willinghammer's HR production (which I think is pretty obvious), but in order to be truly predictive doesn't the algorithm also have to be able to predict someone who is likely to increase their production? So my question is 'has HitTracker ever been successfully used to predict success'? And I mean truly predict, not ex post facto.
  8. TRex
    How many wins would a team of 0 WAR players have... If a 0 WAR team could have wins? (Said to the tune of 'How much wood would a woodchuck chuck...')
  9. TRex
    ... and does anyone expect that Deduno and DeVries are locks to repeat their 2012 numbers over the full 2013 season? I bet that neither gets >100 innings due to ineffectiveness and, for better or worse, Correia pitches more innings than the two combined.
  10. TRex
    Please don't take this the wrong way, 70charger, but every time you reply to one of these inane posts (because I read all your posts) you thwart my attempt to block them by using the site's 'ignore' function.
  11. TRex
    So you are saying that you would trade Buxton for some other team's Oswaldo Arcia? My thought is that 'prospecting' is all about trying to project future success, but what you are doing is more like grading their performance... which may or may not be a predictor of future success. It's not like Buxton had a bad statistical year, and he was voted Best Prospect by managers in TWO separate leagues. What exactly would he need to do warrant a spot in your top 5?
  12. TRex
    If Toronto Trades for RA Dickey, they will have at least 7 starting pitchers for 2013 at over $50 million. RA Dickey $5 million (at least) Josh Johnson ~$14 million Mark Buehrle $12 million Brandon Morrow $8 million Ricky Romero $8 million JA Happ ~$4 million Dustin McGowan $1.5 million (Kyle Drabek) I realize the Blue Jays get $9 million in salary relief for Johnson/Buehrle/Reyes, but that is still a lot of salary. Would you be excited or mortified if Terry Ryan's plan all along was to trade for Buehle?
  13. TRex
    People are speculating that the Ranger's infield will be configured (from l to r) as Beltre, Andrus, Profar, and Kinsler. It sure seems like obtaining Morneau could free up Andrus. Shortstop has been such a wasteland in Minnesota for such a long time, he sure seems like he would be a great fit, especially since he is under team control for three more years. So how much more would it take to get Andrus? Hopefully not Perkins or Sano, but perhaps Willingham as suggested in another thread?
  14. TRex
    What about Perkins and a 15-20 prospect (Angel Mata?) for Capuano and Zach Lee?
  15. TRex
    Pressly turns 24 next week. If you want to see the action on his pitches in the AFL, you can view the games he pitched in vs. the Twins prospects at Peoria on Oct. 9, 19 and 22. In these games he used mainly his FB (93-96) and curve (79-82). He has had a very good groundball rate in the past, and he seems to have good downward plane on his fastball, but he was leaving quite a bit up in the zone in these three games.
  16. TRex
    Makes you wonder if the option years become guaranteed if he gets traded... It would still be a good contract for the Twins, just not a great one.
  17. TRex
    Why, exactly, do you think that extended spring is no different than the MWL? Is pitcher usage in the MWL then also no different than the Arizona fall league? Although I must confess to having no specific data on extended spring box scores, I doubt that pitchers in extended spring average 6 innings per start like good MWL pitchers. Last fall, Berrios averaged only 3.2 innings per start.
  18. TRex
    Hey Seth, It looks like another great week for an update, as Sano, Rosario and Arcia are all doing well and the Aussies have started up now as well!
  19. TRex
    Below is a graph of the so-called 'flat across the league' salaries of the mid to late 90's. Please note that the average Yankee's payroll is 3x that of the Twins! Another 14 teams are >2-fold higher than the Twins. Of course, this doesn't prove that TRyan will not be afraid to sign veterans, just that he really didn't have the opportunity in the 90's as you indicated. http://www.stlsports.com/articles/ja.mlbsalaries.html
  20. TRex
    So what you are saying, John, is that you think the Twins will be unable to sign Capps for less than $5.75 million (his $6 million option minus the buyout)? Otherwise, buying out his option has nothing to do with whether you want him back or not.
  21. TRex
    I agree. I also wish there had been Pitch f/x data for that start so we could see whether his velocity was down, or if his pitches were elevated, or even if the batters hit good pitches. And Seth already indicated that there may have been some defensive miscues. I can't wait until his next start!
  22. TRex
    I am surprised that Sam Gibbons, a 6'4" 18yo Aussie who was pretty dominant in the GCL, didn't even merit an honorable mention. I thought you were high on him before the season? Sam Gibbons (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=611471).
  23. TRex
    First off, I would like to thank Mr. Ryan for his generosity... both to the organization as a whole and to me personally. Once he allowed my family to trade seats with him at a pre-season game so that my 3-month old twin daughters could be in the sun rather than the shade on a very brisk 40º day. I am sure he cannot remember all the fans he has met, but he may remember this incident because it was the first game at Coor's Field in Denver in 1996... the day Kirby woke up blind in his right eye. My question is a little more off topic but... In light of the recent stories about Lance Armstrong getting away with doping for years in the sport with the most stringent rules and testing, what are Mr. Ryan's thoughts on PED usage and testing in baseball? Does he think that there will be 'Lance Armstrong's' in his sport that continue to taint MVP and Cy Young awards, as well as Division and World Series titles? If so, what does he think about potentially removing these achievements from individuals/teams that are caught breaking the rules? Perhaps a more generic way to ask, that might get a more meaningful answer is to get him to compare his thoughts on these types of 'cheating': A) Chicanery: Pitchers doctoring a baseball. Hitters corking a bat. Catchers framing pitches. Hrbek (TRex) pulling Gant's leg off first! Mental acuity: Greenies, speed, caffeine, nicotine, ammonia, weight loss aids C) Muscle repair/enhancement: Testosterone derivatives, HGH, HCG
  24. TRex
    Do you really want to put someone in the bullpen who is coming back from major surgery AND has never pitched from the bullpen before... AND at a level of competition he has never seen before? That sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. In addition, some pitchers (i.e. Slowey) just don't feel right out of the pen, so how in the world is he supposed to know what arm pain is normal bullpen usage versus breakup of scar tissue or something worse?
  25. TRex
    So you would have had them start in February, play all the way until Oct. 4, and then start in Venezuela Oct. 10th? Or perhaps you think their time in the ML would mean that they didn't need to go to the winter leagues? Maybe you think they could have started in Venezuela any time the Twins wanted? What would your development timeline have been from Sept. 1 until Feb. 20th? I understand that people have the right to wish (demand) that the minor leagues be better (different). However, over the last 12 years (in which the Twins have had winning records in 9 years), the Twins minor league yearly average was 11th in MLB (according to BA). And it appears it will be in the 11 range this coming year as well. And with the 4th overall pick in the 2013 draft it is likely that we will be back in the top 10. This hardly seems like an inept organization.
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