frightwig

I'd be fine with them sticking with Kintzler in the closer role for now. He'll probably regress unless he improves his 5.80 K/9, but he did fine in the role this season (3.15 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.48 xFIP). Let him ride as long as he's doing an adequate job, and focus on improving in the setup roles in the meantime. You want your best relievers in more flexible roles, anyway, right?

HR Park Factor, Target Field (via ESPN.com) 2016 - 0.986 (18th) 2015 - 1.058 (13th) 2014 - 1.022 (14th) 2013 - 0.845 (27th) 2012 - 1.031 (14th) 2011 - 0.913 (20th) 2010 - 0.641 (30th) It was a black hole for HR at first, but generally has become more HR-neutral in the last 5 years. Must have been the cement drying.

That's an important point. If we're talking about how the Twins power surge stacks up in team history, it should be noted that their current 193 HR ranks 9th in the AL this year. In fact, homers have jumped so much, the 2872 HR in the AL as of this morning has already smashed the league record. Do the Twins really have a great power-hitting lineup, now? Looking ahead, should we expect them to build on this HR total next year? I'd say, probably not.

Honestly, this is the sort of thinking that got the Twins in this mess. 'If the guys who had a big season can keep it up, and the guys who played poorly can at least be not-so-bad, and the young guys all step up and maybe even become stars, and this guy from the bargain bin turns out to be a gem, then next year should be fun....' There was a lot of that going around last off-season.

I think it would be a mistake to count on Dozier to provide 40/100/100 from here on out. He's never had anything like 41 HR or 141 wRC+ before, and there are reasons to expect that he won't age all that well, anyway. But even if he is truly a Superstar now, how much longer will the Twins be able to keep him? His current bargain deal runs through 2 more years. Are the Twins going to pay market rates to keep him into his late 30's? Should they even want to? Should Dozier want to stay, if a more successful club offers him big money? In the long run, I think the club will be better off if they sell high on Dozier, when he's not only coming off a career year but he should have added value because he's signed for 2yrs/$15M. Get some young pitching talent, move Polanco to 2B. The future will depend on Buxton/Sano/Kepler/Polanco, not the Dozier/Mauer/Plouffe nucleus, and whatever the new GM can do to improve the pitching. Hanging onto Dozier will just hold them back.

I don't think it's a fantasy scenario, but I don't understand how you think their "career norms" is likely to lead to a good team next year. Santana 4.10 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 4.18 xFIP Gibson 4.59 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.17 xFIP Santiago 3.86 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 4.89 xFIP These are their norms, or their career averages, anyway. This is what you want?

Career lines Santana 4.10 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 4.18 xFIP Gibson 4.59 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.17 xFIP Santiago 3.86 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 4.89 xFIP If you're building on that plus the hope that Berrios pitches "remotely well," and maybe Trevor May is decent or Phil Hughes is healthy enough to pitch to his career averages in the second half, what are the chances, really, that the Twins will be a good team in 2017? Keep in mind that the offense this year ranks 11th-AL in wRC+ or fWAR, even with Dozier hitting out of his shoes for three and a half months. And while they won 83 games last year, we also know that they had fantastic cluster luck that boosted them to 11 wins above their BaseRuns record. Below-average, but "decent" pitching (as last year, when the Twins were 10th-AL in ERA, 9th in FIP, 11th xFIP), with their team defense and level of offensive production, probably isn't going to put them in the playoffs, even if the breaks swing more their away again next season.

Numbers as starters this year: Santana 3.38 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 4.21 xFIP Gibson 5.10 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 4.49 xFIP Santiago 6.20 ERA, 5.71 FIP, 6.20 xFIP (4.82, 5.23, 5.45 all season) Berrios 8.88 ERA, 6.55 FIP, 5.48 xFIP It's pretty bad, regardless, and Santana's peripherals indicate a probable ERA regression for him next year, too. I can see the case for giving Gibson a chance to bounce back, but I wouldn't care to pin my plans on him if I could find better options. Santiago's career shows that he may do OK if you put a good defense behind him, particularly a good OF defense, but he's not really a good pitcher. You don't really want him back, unless you're just desperate for filler. If you're committing to a youth movement, then OK, pencil Berrios into the opening rotation; but if you're really trying to win next year, then no, making a spot for him shouldn't be a priority. It could be better for him and the club, anyway, if they send him back to AAA to start next season, let him work on whatever they think needs fixing and get his confidence back, and give him another shot when he's needed and seems ready.

Keep in mind, the starters only get 10-17 IP in spring training, often against minor league hitters. And Gibson had a 1.53 ERA, Milone had a 2.40 ERA, in spring training this year. So spring training isn't all that useful for evaluating who should win jobs for the season. I think the new GM will have to go bold, in one way or another: either commit entirely to a fresh rebuilding project or make a few big moves to overhaul the starting rotation with pitchers who can win next year. IMO, the pitching staff needs SO MUCH help that it's hard to imagine the team being legit contenders in the next 1-2 years, so I'd prefer to see the club sell high on Dozier and Santana and go with a youth movement. But if the new GM keeps 4/5 of the rotation and just hopes for better luck next year... damn, how depressing.

I suppose that they meant to groom him to take over for Dozier, who followed a poor second half of last season with a lousy start to this year. But since Dozier has caught fire, what do you do? You wouldn't really want to bench him or move him off 2B, and Molitor probably should plan as if Dozier will be his 2B next year, until told otherwise, anyway. Plouffe also complicates things, still. If you hold out hope of trading him this winter, you need him to play, particularly since he's been hitting lately--and moving him to 1B/DH doesn't entirely clear up the logjam, either. I guess you'd have Plouffe-Mauer at 1B/DH and Sano at 3B most days--if his elbow could handle it--and Polanco is your SS, and Escobar and Vargas mostly sit the rest of the way. So why not do that? I guess either Molitor doesn't like Sano at 3B right now (whether because of defense, his elbow, or his slump figures in), or he really wants to keep Polanco in the middle infield (especially since he may still be the 2B next year) but also would like to take care of Escobar, and occasionally let Beresford and Vargas play, too. Maybe all of the above.

Btw, I'd also like to note that on May 6, after the first game of a series in Chicago, Arcia was hitting .281/.359/.491. He played the next two against the Sox, going 1-6 with 2 walks. He then played just one game against the Orioles (0-4), two games in Cleveland (0-8), then for some reason appeared only once--a pinch-hitting spot--in Detroit. Coming home, he played twice in four games against the Jays (1-7), then just once against the Royals (2-3), then played twice in Oakland (0-6 with a walk). That brought him to the end of May, where after a 3-week slump in spotty playing time (8 starts and one PH app after Chicago), his line had fallen to .217/.301/.370. And that's where the Twins apparently gave up on him. After not playing at all in the first week of June, he had two starts in the Marlins series (2-6), made a pinch-hit app in the Red Sox series, and finally had a start in Anaheim on June 14 (0-4). Really, they gave up on him because of a 3-week slump covering 8-10 starts in May. One of their better prospects of recent years, and WHY? To make room for Danny Santana. Because Terry Ryan said, "We need him. It's as simple as that." FFS.

Note that these were some of the knocks against Ortiz when the Twins let him go, too. He was an oft-injured, lumbering DH who couldn't hit lefties. I'm not a huge Arcia believer, but he does have an impressive track record at the plate, prior to last year. Even this season, he has a respectable walk rate and ISO. Given that the Twins have had no shot at the playoffs since April, their only priority should be giving playing time to younger players who may help the team win in 2017 and beyond. That probably doesn't include Danny Santana. (Given Rosario's walk rates and spotty record above High A, I doubt that he'll be a big part of the Twins future, either, but I can understand if he gets another shot later this season.) Before cutting bait on Arcia, you'd think that they would give him at least a few months of everyday action. Platoon him with Park, let Arcia play corner OF on some days when facing a lefty starter (for now, his defense doesn't really matter), and tap him to pinch-hit regularly. They could have done this. They don't really need Santana, despite Terry Ryan's ridiculous claim to the contrary, especially if Kepler remains on the team. They don't need an 8th reliever. Terry Ryan could send down Park, if that helped clear playing time while allowing Park to work out some problems, or he could get to work on unloading Plouffe, already. (Yeah, Plouffe's value is low, but the ship has sailed on selling high there--Ryan will just have to unload him, now.) Cutting Arcia because of some roster crunch is just front office B.S. They didn't have to cut him loose. They just lost interest in developing him. Considering the state of the club, that's a real shame.

His contract runs through next season, at $6.5M, with a club buyout option for $700K in 2018. If he's already talking about quitting to be with his family, I'd guess that he'll just delay an official retirement so he can collect the $7.2M. Maybe he'll try to pitch again in 2018 (although Pineda missed 2 full seasons), and maybe the Twins will make him some nominal offer to come back in a Twins uniform, but, as you say, if his heart isn't really in it beyond 2018, why bother?

One problem with banking on Hughes to be a mid-rotation mainstay is that he hadn't really been even that good in New York. His yearly FIP since 2010, when he became a regular starter: 2010 - 4.25 2011 - 4.58 2012 - 4.56 2013 - 4.50 2014 - 2.65 2015 - 4.70 2016 - 4.83 Terry Ryan and certain bloggers (ahem) were really feeling themselves after 2014 because they thought Hughes had validated something they saw in his K/BB rates, but now it seems pretty clear that his first year with the Twins was an outlier. I couldn't see why the Twins gave him 3 years in the first place. He was a 5th starter in New York, and now, with more wear on his arm, he's a marginal 5th starter locking down a spot in the Twins rotation. Maybe it's time to move Hughes to the bullpen, particularly if his arm can't handle more than 70-some pitches at a time now. Back in 2009, the Yankees gave him 7 starts where he didn't do well (5.45 ERA, 868 OPS against), but he flourished in 44 appearances in relief (1.40 ERA, 456 OPS against). That's probably where he should've been all along.

So far Pythag has their expected record at 1-6 (.197), and BaseRuns has it at 2-5 (.310). Last year they had incredible "clutchness," or cluster luck. So far this year, they've been slightly unlucky, but the team really has been bad--just as it was fundamentally poor last season, if you look at the underlying numbers. BaseRuns pegged the 2015 Twins as a 73-win (.451) team; if they play the rest of this year at that level, they'll finish with 70 wins. FanGraphs is currently projecting 74 wins for this season. Barring another year of terrific cluster luck, I expect the team will wind up somewhere in that neighborhood. I'm just hoping that some of the younger players will grow, and Terry Ryan will make some deals for the future that he should've done last winter.

Under Last year the Twins had a 73-89 BaseRuns record, and the lineup ranked 14th-AL in WAR and wRC+. Terry Ryan didn't do much to upgrade the lineup, some of the most promising young talent is still in AAA (and I think Rosario will be spending more time there this season), and the Sano move to RF just seems bizarre. It wouldn't surprise me if Dozier and Plouffe decline a bit, too. Even if Buxton, Sano, and Kepler step up, I don't think it will completely overcome cluster luck regression, and the rotation could look ugly for stretches of the season, too. I'm looking for a 77-85 record this year.

I don't think I'd extend any of them, unless the Twins really could sign Kendrys for 1-2 years at a bargain price. Dozier seems like exactly the kind of guy you don't want to bet on, more than a couple years out. He was a 25 year-old rookie, established as a decent regular at 26, looking like an above-average 2B in his breakout year at 27. That alone would make me suspect "short peak," but when a guy has a .242 avg (and batting .227/.338/.400 against RHP) at age 27, what is he going to look like when he's a little older, a little banged up, and his bat starts to slow down even slightly? A 2B hitting .242 is fine as long as he's drawing walks, hitting homers, and playing decent defense. Pretty good, actually. But if he's hitting .225, and .205 vs RHP, or maybe even worse... Dozier's early 30s could be a lot like Dan Uggla's. That might even be optimistic. I think the Twins would be wise to pay Dozier year-by-year for as long as he's under club control, and either trade him sometime in the next few years, or just let him go when he becomes a free agent, and collect a draft pick.

I'd like to see Pinto get 2-3 starts at Catcher + 1-2 starts at DH every week, but Gardy isn't likely to do that. So, I'd get rid of Gardy. But that isn't going to happen, either. So, they might as well send Pinto down to Rochester where he can play every day. Maybe next year, at age 26, they'll give him more than 5 weeks and ~110 PA to settle into a regular role, before deciding whether he's a keeper. This is pretty stupid, though. Clubs, especially rebuilding clubs, really shouldn't be deciding to send down a guy like Pinto because a guy like Kurt Suzuki has had a nice 2 months, which puts him on track for a career year at age 30, and the GM couldn't resist bringing in a veteran DH who makes the team marginally better.

So, Morales is a good hitter, but not significantly better than the DH options already on the team. In fact, his production last year was worse than what Twins DH's have done to this point in the season. He's not likely to make the Twins a contender, if he makes the team significantly better at all. He also probably blocks Pinto and other young players from needed playing time, which could mean that they're less prepared to play at their potential next season. Management made the move anyway, perhaps because Ryan and Gardy are feeling pressure after three losing seasons to show that the team is turning around. Maybe Gardy really wanted another veteran bat. Maybe Ryan felt he could use some good PR to get fans and media buzzing right about now. Anyway, they decided to throw something against the wall. If it doesn't stick, at least people will be pleasantly distracted for awhile. Nick essentially admits this, but still we're excited because it signals a shift to "win now" mode? But if the team is likely to win 75 games or less, with or without Morales, why do we want the front office making this sort of splashy but marginal move at the expense of player development? Why is it so good to see Ryan deviate from the long-term plan for no great reason?

Yeah, this is why it seems like a pointless move. They're probably getting little to no upgrade at DH (and I don't really expect Morales to get much time at 1B unless Mauer is on the DL), and even if Pinto/Santana and anyone else who might otherwise DH turned into replacement-level players the rest of the way, Morales is likely to be worth less than 1 WAR in half a season. Currently Fangraphs projects the Twins to finish with 74 wins, with 1.9% chance at the postseason. If the rest of the season plays out according to their present run differential (-24), the team is headed for 75 wins. But given that some good players may be hurt or traded, or just regress, this summer, I could see the team slipping to 70-72 wins, too. A lot of positive changes would have to happen to make this 2014 team a real contender. And people are excited that Terry Ryan added a DH who probably won't add more than one win, if that, to a 70-something win total? Meanwhile, for the chance at this marginal, short-term gain, Ryan and Gardy will block Pinto, Santana and other younger players who should be getting regular plate appearances. If the club cared about player development, if the club were committed to a real plan for the future, management would put a high priority on getting the young guys regular playing time to help them get established this season, to get them better prepared for next season. And it shouldn't be hard to do, anyway, given what little difference there is between the youngsters and a guy like Kendrys Morales. Nope, apparently management is just tired of losing now. It's embarrassing, you guys! And although it's still a bad team, it's technically still "in the race," and there's this veteran bat available, so LET'S GET HIM and GO FOR IT!!!!1!!!! Some of you might think this shows that the Twins are "serious." I think it shows that Twins management is seriously lost.

Arcia last year: 6.1 BB%, 31.0 K%. To start this season: 5.3 BB%, 31.6 K%. "Swinging out of his shoes" seems to be what he does. Although his slash lines throughout his minor league career have been impressive, by his performance in the majors it still looks like it would do him a lot of good to spend more time at AAA and really work on his plate discipline. And as long as Pinto, Kubel and Colabello are taking care of business in the Twins lineup, now's the perfect time for Arcia to do some woodshedding in Rochester.

When I look at the front office decisions this winter, I'm not entirely sure whether management is really lost at sea or just merely content to muddle along and collect high draft picks until Buxton and Sano arrive. If I'm feeling generous, I have to assume that they just spent money on pitching this winter, knowing full well that the new guys aren't really that good, with the intent of just being not-quite-so-embarrassing for the next couple years. Like, maybe if the team can show just enough progress to get 70-ish wins this season and next, then maybe the fans won't tune out, and maybe the team can be in position to push above .500 again when the top prospects are in place. By 2018, then, maybe the front office will replace the pitchers they just signed with some mix of prospects and one or two veterans who could lead a legit contender. That isn't the most inspiring plan, because it's a slow approach and a lot could go wrong (and already has). But it's what I hope they have in mind, because I don't like to think that Nolasco-Hughes-Pelfrey is really the club's idea of "aiming high" or the kind of guys Terry Ryan really wants in the Twins' next playoff rotation.

"Going back to the 2013 Baseball Prospectus comment, it is the hype that clouded the previous judgement on Hughes rather than seeing him for what he is, which is an above average starter." ------ He has a 4.74 career ERA as a starting pitcher. His xFIP's in each of the last 3 years (during which he had a 4.85 ERA): 4.39, 4.35, 4.90. Yeah, he has a good fastball which has helped him rack up a decent strikeout rate, and I'm sure the Twins like that he "throws strikes." But he's not an above-average starter. If a "change of scene" helps him record an ERA closer to his xFIP levels, he's probably going to give the Twins an ERA in the low-to-mid 4's. Which would make him a back-end starter, Kevin Correia with a nicer strikeout rate. For some reason, the Twins thought it's worth betting a 3-year deal on that kind of pitcher. Even stranger, Twins bloggers are trying so hard to get psyched about it.

Hughes had a 5.19 ERA (-0.7 rWAR) this year, 4.85 ERA over the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, his value has been below replacement level. Why guarantee $24M/3 years to a guy like that, on the slight chance that a change of scene will cure him? Last winter, everyone was so pissed about Correia's $10/2 deal. This year, Ryan is throwing even bigger deals at below-average pitchers, and most everyone seems thrilled to see him spend the money. On guys who are not really GOOD, but NEVER MIND! I don't get it.

Although Pinto struggled a bit when first introduced to Class A levels, after crushing it in Rookie league, he went on to really rake the ball in the last 2 seasons at all levels from High A to the majors (at age 23-24). He doesn't look to me like someone who needs to be sold off before he turns into a pumpkin. The Steamer projection at Fangraphs has him for .257/.319/.404, 100 wRC+, 2.0 WAR next year. At age 25, now is the time to let Pinto play and see what they have in him. If he meets that Steamer projection, they should certainly be happy with him. Saltalamacchia, on the other hand, is coming off a career year at age 28. If he keeps it up for a few more years, he'd be worth $10M/yr. But if it turns out to be a fluke year and he reverts to prior performance levels, the Twins would be paying $10M/yr. for a catcher who's probably no better than Pinto would be at around 5% the price. And Saltalamacchia is four years older, too. If they're trading Pinto for really good pitching, and signing Saltalamacchia to replace him, that's one thing. I'd still worry that the Twins were buying high on Saltalamacchia, but could live with it if I liked the pitching Ryan brought in with the Pinto deal. But if they're shopping for a new starting catcher just because they don't trust Pinto to play 110+ games next year, so they plan to have him share the job or even begin the season at AAA, that's just stupid. A stupid waste of financial resources, and a stupid waste of Pinto.