frightwig

You know, Kirby Puckett was worth 50.8 rWAR in his 12 seasons with the Twins, from age 24-35. Torii Hunter has been worth 50.1 rWAR in his career, all but 0.6 of it in the 13 seasons from age 25-37. Kirby was the better hitter (124 OPS+ vs. 111 OPS+, although that's skewed somewhat by the time Torii spent developing in the majors from age 22-24), but in terms of overall value Torii isn't far below Kirby's mark. Anyway, he has had a very good career, and still going strong at age 37 (.304/.334/.465, 114 OPS+, 2.1 rWAR this year). But I can't see him wanting to come back to Minnesota to finish his career with a rebuilding project, unless his skills have deteriorated so much by 2015-16 that nobody else really wants him. As long as Detroit wants to keep him, why would he leave except to sign for more money elsewhere? And if money becomes an issue with him, I can't see the Twins making an offer that satisfies him on that point, either.

They probably have 3 open spots in next April's rotation. Correia is likely to be back, and although Albers is probably just the new Diamond, I imagine that he's earned a spot to start next season. Beyond that, either Ryan has to sign 2 free agents and use the #5 spot to test a youngster, or he'll have to throw a few of Gibson/May/Meyer/Worley/Diamond/Darnell into the pool all at once and see who can swim. I doubt that he's going to want a rotation of prospects, so I'd look for Ryan to be shopping this winter. Let's just hope that his FA signings aren't 2 more guys like Correia and Pelfrey out of the bargain bin.

Correia also has a 4.52 FIP, 4.19 xFIP. 2009: 3.81, 4.14 2010: 4.71, 4.06 2011: 4.85, 4.38 2012: 4.43, 4.34 Career: 4.52, 4.41 It's still fair to wonder why Terry Ryan felt it necessary to sign Correia for 2 years, or to criticize Ryan for not getting anybody with more upside this year, but Correia is doing just what the Twins and their fans should have expected of him. He's a mediocre back-end starter, worth 1.0 WAR to date. And there's something to be said for a starting pitcher being just exactly the level of mediocre value that you should be expecting for $5M/yr. on the open market. It would've been nice if Ryan had been the one who signed Scott Feldman or Scott Kazmir this year, but teams looking for bargain innings-eaters often do worse than Kevin Correia. You know, Correia could have been Joe Saunders or Aaron Harang. He's not really good, but he's earned his money.

You know, I don't recall reading or hearing anyone say so before, but when the Twins signed Morris, they really were just taking a 1-year flyer on a big-name veteran who hadn't been good the previous couple years. Except that time it really paid off.

Right. After the 1986 season, according to Chadwin, Morris' agent proposed to the Yankees a one-year arbitration deal. The idea was that other owners wouldn't object to Morris changing teams if his salary were determined by arbitrator. Then, once in a Yankees uniform, Morris could sign a multi-year extension for the really big bucks. Had this plan all worked out, Morris very well might (I should say) have been signed with the Yankees through the 1991 season. The plan fell through after the other owners and Peter Ueberroth leaned on Steinbrenner to stay in line. (The previous winter, Steinbrenner also withdrew an offer to Carlton Fisk when Jerry Reinsdorf called to complain.) Why didn't New York sign Morris when he was available after the 1990 season? Maybe his 15-18 record and 4.51 ERA that year (and 6-14, 4.86 ERA in 1989) had something to do with it.

Jack Morris also hoped to sign with the Yankees, according to a book I once read called Those Damn Yankees: The Secret Life of America's Greatest Franchise by Dean Chadwin, but New York passed only because Steinbrenner was playing along with MLB owners' collusion scheme. If the Yankees had been acting like the Yankees at the time, the Twins '91 championship never would have happened.

The pitching issue is the main reason I'm still feeling pessimistic about the Twins' near future, even with the crop of promising hitting prospects due to arrive in the next year or two. The free agent pool isn't deep, and we know that Terry Ryan won't be spending big money on the top talent available. It would be nice to get a few "high-upside" bargains, but correctly identifying those guys can be easier said than done. And the crop of Twins pitching prospects in the high minors isn't all that inspiring. Maybe Trevor May and Alex Meyer will stick in the next couple years, if they can refine their command. Kyle Gibson? Before his callup, some hyped him as possibly being the next Brad Radke. Now, after a miserable showing as a 25 year-old rookie, I'd be glad if he can turn into a decent #4 starter for a few years. Vance Worley? He had a 3.88 ERA in 9 starts with Rochester this year, but a 10.1 H/9 and 5.3 K/9. Nobody else at AA and above has a lot of upside. Meanwhile, it's nice to think about Stewart, Berrios, and Gonsalves looking so good in the Rookie and Class A leagues. And, hey, look at Lewis Thorpe! And Fernando Romero! Chih-Wei Hu, too! But then a lot of pitchers who look dominant in the low minors wind up going the way of Alex Wimmers, or worse. If the Twins are lucky, three of the whole lot will stay healthy and become good pitchers within a few years. Let's say, maybe Meyer, Stewart, and Berrios or Gonsalves. Maybe Gibson turns into a decent, cheap, back-end starter for awhile. And maybe next year's draft nets a future star, too? That would be if the club gets lucky--and even then, it will take awhile for all of that to fall into place. If the Twins don't get lucky with the pitching prospects, we might spend the next several years watching Mauer, Sano, and Buxton, etc. tear up the league but still never win anything because the pitching is what it is. If the minor leagues do not develop good major league pitchers, I don't see the Plan B or Plan C.

Will Chase is the next Sidd Finch.

His first-pitch strike percentage is up (although not quite as good as in 2010), but it's interesting that meanwhile his total percentage of pitches inside the strike zone is actually at a career low, 38.3%. And while his 3.50 BB/9 is certainly better than the last two years, it's not indicative of suddenly great command, either. It's not much lower than his career mark (3.77), actually.

Liriano 2010: 3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 0.42 HR/9, 53.6 GB% Liriano 2013: 2.52 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 9.37 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9, 52.7 GB% He's basically having a repeat of his 2010 season, now. I'd say that the big reasons his ERA is more than a run below his 2010 mark are a .287 BABIP (rather than .331 in 2010) and 80.2 LOB% (73.1% in 2010). He's enjoying the benefit of a good Pirates defense (3rd best Defensive Efficiency in the NL) and some luck to support his performance. We'll see whether he can keep it up for two or more straight seasons, or if the wild, homer-prone Frankie of 2011-12 will rear up again next year. I tend to doubt that "fixing" him was just as easy as "letting Frankie be Frankie" and encouraging him to throw more sliders (as I've seen suggested elsewhere).

Dozier at age 26 has emerged as a decent bat (.243/.311/.417) + good glove at 2nd base, a nice sort of player to have on the roster, especially as a compliment to a few real big bats in the middle of your lineup. But I wouldn't say that Dozier is an essential building block, one of the core players in the next good Twins team, or someone who should be blocking any top prospects. He buys the club some time to let Rosario develop some more in the minors next season. If Dozier's plate production improves in his age 27 season, I'd say sell high on him--especially if Rosario looks ready to come up to the majors by next summer or at the end of the season. If Dozier's bat regresses, well, too bad, but then he still might help the team after being shifted to a utility role.

Sano and Rosario are youngsters in AA; Buxton is a kid in High A. Let's relax a little, give them time to develop and master fundamental skills in the minors before pushing them into the deep end of the pool. As Hicks and Arcia both showed this season, there can be a wide gulf between AA and the majors. Sometimes, even the transition from AAA to the majors can be difficult. It could be another 3-4 years before the next wave of prospects actually reaches its potential and becomes a good core group of players. In the meantime, I don't mind if Ryan plans to 'stand at a bus stop' while waiting on the younger prospects next season. Focus on making some longterm improvements to the pitching rotation. Give Hicks and Arcia another shot next April. Let the other kids play the season at AA/AAA, see how they're coming along. Collect another high draft pick. I don't see much point in rushing them all up, so they can flounder as a group next year. It could set back the development of some of them, even.

I think some pitchers are pretty good at inducing weak contact, but the ones who have prolonged success tend to give themselves more room for error (or bad luck) by keeping walks down AND maintaing a decent K/9. But nobody is a weak-grounder machine. Eventually, probably before too long, Deduno will lose a little something--speed, some movement, or control--off his pitches; and maybe his BB/9 goes up again, or his K/9 keeps falling, and he won't have any margin for error when hitters pounce on his mistakes. It will be like Mays, Silva and Blackburn all over again. I'm fine with the Twins sending him out there until that happens. He's earned a job next spring. And, really, kudos to him and Anderson for getting his walks under control this season. I just hope they never, ever give him a Mays/Blackburn multi-year deal.

Morneau should be in the Twins HOF someday, but I think retiring #33 for him would be a bit much. In his Twins career, he's hit .278/.348/.484 (121 OPS+) and has been worth 19.3 fWAR. In his 2006 MVP season, he was worth 3.7 fWAR while hitting .321/.375/.559 (140 OPS+); a very good year, but a relatively weak "MVP season." The MVP award really should have gone to Joe Mauer, his teammate, or Derek Jeter. Morneau got the award because of sportwriters' fixation on HR/RBI (he hit 34/130 that season). He was a good 1st baseman for 4.5 seasons, and he really was having a fantastic first half in 2010, but retired numbers should be reserved for the special elite players. Morneau isn't Tony Oliva--who was worth 40.7 fWAR in his career; a 3.7 fWAR season equates to Tony O's two worst seasons from his 1964 rookie year through 1971, his last season before his knee surgery. Morneau isn't on Kent Hrbek's level, either. Besides being a local good ol' boy and key player on two World Series champs, Hrbek had 37.6 career fWAR and four seasons worth more than Morneau's MVP year. You know, Corey Koskie had 22.7 fWAR, and three seasons better than Morneau's MVP year, with the Twins. He's also made Minnesota his home, and is known for doing a lot of charity work in the local communities. Torii Hunter had 21.8 fWAR, and two seasons better than Morneau's MVP year, with the Twins--and was known as "The Face of the Franchise." Is anyone talking about retiring their numbers, too?

Yeah, I guess Sano may have to learn that the hard way. Besides needing to show better respect toward club management and the game itself, I hope he realizes now that he's in AA for nothing but to put in the work necessary to advance. Bat flips may be considered colorful, or "playing with swagger," once he's proven himself in the majors. In AA, he's just a punk with a lot of promise in AA, riding the bus with all the other kids. Why act like that in AA? Does he think he's already arrived? If he learns those lessons, maybe we can avoid another Matt Garza situation.

He doesnt strike anyone out, and his walk rate is up, HR rate is up, LOB% is down, GB% is down.... When a guy has a K/9 at around 4.5 or less, he needs everything else to go just right. For awhile last year, that happened for Diamond--but it never was going to last.

I'd like to see the list of players who had, let's say, +25 WAR careers after posting < 9 BB% and >25 K% as a rookie. I'm genuinely curious, but probably don't have the time to research it. My guess is that it's not a very long list, though. Regarding what to do when Pelfrey comes back, right now I'd prefer to see them send down Diamond (5.27 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 4.02 K/9 just isn't getting it done) while giving Pelfrey a chance to build some trade value--or show whether he's worth resigning. Who knows, in August and September, his arm might start to round into shape, and he could look like a decent, low-cost veteran to plug into the rotation in 2014. I don't have any hope that Diamond can help the team going forward. Even when he was doing well, he didn't have much margin for error. But with a 4.02 K/9, he has no margin for error at all. He needs a lot of luck on HR rates, BABIP, LOB% and all that, and of course that's not sustainable.

For comparison, Nick Franklin, the Mariners 2nd base prospect, who is also 22, has a 10.7% walk rate, 15.5% strikeout rate in his initial 103 PA "at the major league level" (circle me, Bert). Arcia in 154 PA is at 7.8% and 26.0%. Actually, Arcia's strikeout rate is about the same as Aaron Hicks' 26.5%, and his walk rate is a bit worse than Hicks' 8.5%. The biggest difference between them is luck on balls in play. Arcia looks like a potential ROY with his .340 BABIP, while poor Aaron Hicks looked like he didn't belong on the team with his .217 BABIP. The other day, Gleeman posted something about how Arcia's OPS stacked up against other 22 year-olds in Twins history, like Hrbek, Ortiz, Mauer, and Brunansky. Did they have such problems with plate discipline at age 22? Let's see... Hrbek: 9.1 BB%, 13.5 K% Ortiz: 12.0 BB%, 22.1 K% Mauer: 11.0 BB%, 11.6 K% Brunansky: 10.0 BB%, 15.5K% Nope, not really. David Ortiz's strikeout rate was a bit high, which I'd guess was a reason Tom Kelly made him spend the next season in AAA, but it wasn't as high as Arcia's--and Ortiz even at 22 knew how to work a walk. The rest of those guys had a solid plate approach from a young age, which was a good indication of their successful careers to come. Oswaldo Arcia is not in their class. He needs to do a lot of work on his plate approach if he's going to be mentioned in that kind of company again, after this year.

By fWAR, here are the top 5 rookie position players in the AL right now (min 100 PA): Jose Iglesias (Red Sox): .426/.479/.529 in 121 PA, 1.4 WAR Yan Gomes (Indians): .257/.277/.505 in 112 PA, 1.1 WAR Brandon Barnes (Astros): .263/.316/.375 in 178 PA, 1.0 WAR Leonys Martin (Rangers): .282/.335/.418 in 188 PA, 0.9 WAR Nick Franklin (Mariners): .283/.359/.489 in 103 PA, 0.8 WAR ... 10) Oswaldo Arcia (Twins): .271/.338/.486 in 154 PA, 0.1 WAR (I'll leave out pitchers, because there isn't a great rookie SP or hot rookie closer right now.) Now, Iglesias will cool off, but could wind up with an impressive line anyway, given a start as hot as that. And playing SS/3B in Boston will not go unnoticed, either. Gomes has a poor OBP, but a Catcher with some pop in his bat could get votes. Barnes, as a 27 year-old outfielder without much pop... probably not a real contender. Martin isn't a great masher, either, but a Centerfielder with a decent slash line for a contending team might get ROY notice this year. Franklin got a relatively late start, but like Arcia he's a highly rated prospect, age 22, and has impressed out of the gate. Plus, he'll get bonus points for playing 2nd base. Arcia should be in the ROY conversation if he can sustain his batting numbers, because his defense probably won't hurt his chances much, if at all, but I think there are at least 4 other candidates who look as likely at this point to take home the award.

Also worth noting that his June split is a sample of 47 PA. And he has a .367 BABIP since his return. He looks great right now, but at some point pitchers will make adjustments, balls in play won't fall in for him so much... and then we'll see. We might not be able to get a good read on him at all this season. We might have to wait until next season, maybe longer, for him to start settling toward his true level.

A high BABIP (.340 as of today) will help a guy do that. I am still concerned about his strikeout and walk rates, and the fact that his defense has wiped out his offensive value to this point. I hope that he can improve those aspects of his game; if not, it's really going to lower his ceiling. I'm not so sure that he's going to be the future All-Star LF that most Twins fans imagine. A young guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk too much, and can't cover Leftfield might turn out to be a decent 1st baseman for a few years, but that isn't exactly a cornerstone of the next contending Twins team, is it?

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When Arcia was riding high (largely thanks to a high BABIP), he still had a high strikeout rate and low walk rate, which signaled fundamental problems in his plate approach. Even if Gardy agreed to put him in his lineup every day, I'd rather have Arcia work out his problems at AAA. He needs to be at a level appropriate to his age/ability, where he can feel comfortable working on significant changes to his approach, where the day's box score line isn't as important as the fundamental mechanics of what he's doing at the plate. I don't expect that he'll work it all out in a couple weeks. I'll be happy if he's shown enough progress on his approach to come back up to stay by August or September this season.

The better of the two projections currently at Fangraphs has Hicks hitting .249/.329/.404 this season; the other projects .217/.298/.340. Aside from the possibility of a flukey hot start, we probably should expect about league-average on-base skill + light pop if things go well for him this year, but there's also a strong possibility that he's just going to look in over his head. Meanwhile, the same projections for Mastroianni have him between .256/.325/.350 and .235/.307/.329. If you plug him into CF for one month, instead of Hicks, how much of a difference to the team record is it likely to make?

Yep, and think about what it means when the books are trying to set a line that will attract betting on each side, and still come up with a number as low as 64.5 wins. All but three teams fall in the range of 71.5 to 90 wins. The Astros, Marlins, and Twins don't get enough regard even to project above 65 wins. People with money at stake really, really, really think the Twins are going to suck hard.