diehardtwinsfan

Here's the problem. The team's needs now (starting pitching and MI help) will still likely exist in 2015. There's some potential for some help up the middle in the farm system for 2015, but not nearly enough pitching. Essentially that means that they are going to have to make some smart free agent pitching signs over the next two years regardless. I don't know which pitchers are FAs for 2014 and for 2015, but the bottom line is that if they want to be competitive in 2015, that problem is still going to have to be addressed.

Buxton's all-around tool set is so far above all of the others... I mean, there's a reason he was a #2 overall pick... His upside is incredible... the question will be, how many of those tools will eventually become skills, and how long will it take. It took until this year for Hicks's tools to start becoming skills, 4 years after he was drafted... that's not unusual. He was number 2 in a weak class. Hicks was in every way a similar prospect to Buxton. The problem is once you've looked at the girl long enough, you tend to pick out little flaws. Buxton is simply the newest girl. I'm all for prospecting, but these lists mean nothing if the only metric is tools and upside. The problem I see with Buxton is that the Twins have 4 guys who are highly thought of that are succeeding at higher levels in the minors (Sano, Arcia, Rosario, and Hicks). Arcia and Hicks have done so quite nicely at AA. While Buxton has tools, to pretend he's even a lock to make it that far is kind of silly. I don't have a problem factoring in upside, but it shouldn't be placed above toolsy guys who are actually producing.

Drew isn't getting 7M.

Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.

They have some nice pitching prospects too. Neither of those SS prospects scream at me, but they have several pitchers in the high minors with 1/2 type ceilings.

They get him and they get VMart back. Add that to the fact that they underachieved in the first half this past season based on their talent. Should win 100 games this year Except that they didn't really underachieve.

please for the love of God stop suggesting we try to get Mark Burhle.

considering we had no depth in the middle infield, I'd say poorly... Middle infield and starting pitching are what commands a premium in baseball. That said, I can tell you this. Not one person who is saying trade for need likely liked the JJ trade. That should tell you everything you need to know about it.

If you do not have enough B- pitching prospect available to fill your needs then you have to trade for what is scarcer. You can always pick up another MI, for younger prospects. You might not always find a pitching rich team. That's not the most efficient method of doing things though. It's like drafting a pitcher for the sake of needing pitchers instead of drafting best player available. If you always draft to need and not to talent available, you are making your overall system weaker in the process. and when exactly do you consider need? Using this logic, you will end up of a top 10 that consists solely of outfielders. I get that you should always take the BPA, but at one point, need has to be factored in.

yes.

A couple of others said it, and I'll echo. An 88 win team in a tough division may very well be better than a 95 win team in a weak division. That's what the unbalanced schedule does. I really hope that it is no one's goal to simply make the playoffs.. This bugs me. The goal is the series. The playoffs is a stepping stone to getting there, but if the focus is only on the playoffs, then you've missed the point.

I'd like to hope that Republicans learn a bit from this debacle. In the name of electability they chose an empty bag of wind who really couldn't distinguish himself from Obama in any meaningful way. In the mean time the Libertarian party set a record with nearly 1.2M votes and the majority of the Ron Paul people (probably about 3 times that number) stayed home. Unfortunately, I am not sure they are smart enough to figure it out.

I'd feel much more comfortable about 9-7 had they done a bit better over the last few weeks. They lost too many winable games. 2-4 down the stretch would be impressive I think....

This tells me that Theo is willing to gamble a million or so more for a draft pick. I'm surprised Baker got 5.5. I figured it would be closer to 3, maybe 4 + incentives. Theo has the ability to trade Baker if he's really strong come the deadline or he can give him a QO which will get turned down if Baker is anything like his old self come August/September. It isn't a bad move.

I'm hoping that the Reds get in a bidding war here... both teams could use Span.

the quesiton I'd ask is whether a kunckleballer is like a sinker baller where they can suddenly forget their pitch.

This is a huge factor for me too. I don't like the Twins being cheap, but if you bring Sano up for a couple years and he is brutal, you waste two years of his service time and two years of his development. I would feel a lot differently if Sano was 21, played third well and the Twins were a borderline playoff team. This isn't about being cheap, it's about being smart. 95 loss teams are not being wise in promoting their top prospects well before they are ready so that they can burn service time struggling in ML. It's going to be a tough jump as it is, and bringing them on before the skillset is there is a good way to destroy a kid's confidence or burn valuable service time. Even the Yankees understand that concept. If you bring Sano up too soon, you have two possible results: 1) He struggles and never reaches that potential (example: Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez). 2) He gets good right when he gets expensive. The Twins are in a position where the second option isn't always a bad thing, but regardless, it's poor management from a long term organizational standpoint, and it's risky from a player development standpoint. Likewise, I fail to see how the Twins are being conservative. Sano is very young for his league. He didn't exactly dominate either, which makes me think they put him in the proper zone of proximal development, or whatever you want to call it. His defense is clearly lagging and other than power, his offense wasn't exactly top tier either. I'm not saying he's a bad prospect, but he was challenged quite well based on where his skills are now. Putting him in Fort Myers or New Brittian for 2012 makes that challenge even tougher. People who say push push push seem to forget that the skill level between the minor league levels is much more difficult. Not much is going to be accomplished when you put a guy who needs to hone his contact tools against people who are much better at avoiding contact, and we can find story after story about guys who got pushed too fast and never made it. It isn't about being conservative or liberal with your prospects. It's about being smart. Sano has shown nothing to indicate that the Twins are being too conservative with him.

There are some that will be upset no matter what the Twins do. I think we all say Alexi's potential. Unfortunately, he never reached it.

I don't buy the "no one wants to come here" argument. Yes, if the Twins offered the same amount of money as NY, the player would go to NY. I doubt that's up for debate. 2 years ago, if the Twins offered the same amount of money as any other team, the player would have chosen the Twins over most teams in the league... but the key is "the same amount of money". Very rarely do you hear of players taking a pay cut (like Cliff Lee did a few years back) to go to a city because that's where he wanted to be. It happens, but it happens rarely. Most players will take the extra cash (especially given their short careers), so if MN is offering 12M and NY is offering 11, they'll take the extra mil. That happens all the time. Look at the Yankees. They don't lock up the stars simply because all the stars want to play there and take pay cuts to do so. They lock them up because they offer the most cash. The bottom line is that if you want a guy, you have to be the highest bidder.

I don't have a problem giving him a contract, but your first part says a lot about how much he is going to make. A healthy Haren is not a bad deal at 12M. The angels obviously think he isn't worth that, and no one traded for him. The angels were on the hook for 3.5 M regardless, the Twins (or anyone else) could have given them an org filler guy for 3M and the right to exercise that option and the Angels would have come out ahead. As such, I highly doubt he gets 4/52 or any sort of long term highly expensive deal. He's far more likely to do a 1/10 or something like that and then angle for a 3 year contract next winter.

winning the central and losing a 1 game playoff... pretty impressive since only wildcard teams play in the playoff.

I'd be thrilled if Span netted Cingrani straight up. Pitching isn't cheap, espeically LHP who did quite well in AA. He may not profile as an ace, but he strikes me as a pretty decent bet to be a 2/3 type pitcher.

The odds of a second round pick making it are far higher than you'd think. A good class will net you 2 or 3 decent major leaguers, and most of those guys will come from the top 5 picks, so I wouldn't throw one away lightly. I do think that if the Twins were a player or two away from a realistic shot at the series, then yes, by all means sacrifice one. But this team has some significant rebuilding and will need a decent dose of luck to make the playoffs next year, so no, I wouldn't give away a 2nd rounder for that.

I had mine as a blog... here it is: It's no secret as to where the Twins struggled last season. Starting pitching was by far the worst, but the Twins were left lacking up the middle as well as in the pen. The good news is that from a hitting standpoint, the Twins look fairly set going forward. Rochester's OF should consist of 3 decent prospects in Arcia, Hicks, and Benson (though Benson's stock has fallen a bit), and one of them should be ready if/when someone goes down or is traded. The higher minors are bereft of pitching talent and middle infield talent, though prospect Brian Dozier should get a chance to establish himself in Rochester next year. I for one am not as down on him as others, and a year in AAA will likely be beneficial to him. Fortunately for the Twins, there are options. In my plan, the Twins will make two trades this offseason. The first of which will be to deal Anthony Slama to the Angels for Dan Haren and 3M. While I personally think Slama deserves a shot, it seems clear that he isn't going to get one in Minnesota. The Angles took a similar type deal in letting go Santana, and they will take another one to for Haren as they will esentially get an RP arm for the cost of Haren's buyout, which they were going to pay anyways. The second will be to deal Denard Span and a PTBNL to the Reds for minor league pitcher Tony Cingrani. They will not sit quitely in the FA market either. The Twins go ahead and sign Scott Baker to a 2 year deal with an option. He will receive 2M in 2013 and 6M in 2014 with a 10M option in 2015 or a 1M buyout. They also choose to bring on Erik Bedard on a 1 year 2M deal. Bedard was very good for Pittsburg before falling apart late summer. That was certainly in part due to being tired as he hasn't had huge workloads for several years now. His purpose is to hopefully last the year, but if not, he buys time for Gibson/Hendricks. Gibson will be shut down early in the spring so that he can finish the year with 130 innings. The Twins will also go heavily after Marcum, and they will get him after adding a 2nd year and an option to his contract. Marcum is signed for 2/16 with a 3rd year option. They will opt for 1 year fixes in the middle infield. Both Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew will be signed to 1 year deals to man the middle. This should provide better defense overall and a reasonable potential to help at the plate. Dozier will start in AAA where he belongs, and the Twins will be able to decide if he will man one of those spots in 2014. Terry Ryan said that the pen was his second priority, and as such he makes a few moves. Being out of options, Delios Gurerra will be given every opportunity to man a spot, and he will receive it whether or not it is deserved. But the Twins will also seek reinforcements who are capable of striking out batters. Jason Grilli will come over on a 2 yr/4M deal from Pittsburg. While he is 35, he is still quite capable of striking out batters. Staying with age, they will also sign Joel Peralta to a 1yr/3M deal. These pitchers will add some Ks to the back of the pen for reasonable prices. Their bench will be strengthened by signing Jeff Keppinger to a 2yr/7M deal. Keppinger will rotate at the corners and occasional DH and essentially be their 10th starter/super utility guy. Lineup: C-Mauer - 23M 1B-Morneau - 14M 2B-Kelly Johnson - 2M SS-Stephen Drew - 2M 3B - Plouffe - .5M RF - Willingham - 7M CF - Revere .5M LF - Parmalee .5M DH - Doumit 3.5M Total: 53M Pitching: SP-Diamond - .5M SP-Dan Haren - 12M (Angels cover 3M of his contract) SP- Marcum - 8M SP-Baker - 2M SP-Bedard - 3M RP-Swarzak - .5M RP-D. Guererra - .5M RP-Jason Grilli - 2M RP-Joel Peralta - 3M RP-Duensing - 1M RP-Burton - 1M CL-Perkins - 2.5M Total: 40.5 Bench U/MIF- Florimon - .5M U/CIF- Jeff Keppinger - 3.5M OF- Mastroianni - .5M C- Chris Herrman - .5M Total: 5M Grand total: 98.5M The end result is a swing for the fences type team. If everything breaks right, the Twins will find themselves in the thick of a penant race in 2013. Given that they are adding quite a few question marks, the likelihood of that is not as good as we'd like, but they have nice trade options to work with come the deadline should things not work out. Morneau will very likely be flipped for pitching help. The same can be said for Willingham, Johnson, Drew, or Peralta. With Arcia and Hicks in Rochester, one of these guys will likely be called up to replace Revere should he struggle. If Morneau or Willingham is traded, then one will be called up to move into the OF. Gibson and Hendricks will start in Rochester, but both will likely see time when the inevitable pitching injury strikes. This Twins team has much more depth as their minor league system should be able to provide a reasonable replacement for most roles.

He had a 15M option with a 3M buyout... so technically, not a free agent, though it was no secret he was getting the buyout.