John Bonnes

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So, for those of us who maybe obsess about the payroll moves this team does or doesn't make, I thought of something.... At the trade deadline, the Twins picked up Jamie Garcia's balance of $4M to get two prospects from the Yankees. Yesterday, they do the opposite. They save $2.2M - this is cap money that they can't spend - and also pick up two more prospects. So they end up gaining four prospects for $1.8M by doing nothing more than getting a little flexibility in their budget midseason. I'm a Terry Ryan fan, but I can't imagine him pulling those levers.

I kind of like that these guys are both 2017 draft picks for two reasons. 1) To build a sustained period of success, the Twins are going to need another group of prospects to take the places of this group once they graduate to free agency. We got to experience that in the '00s years, when Mientkiewicz, Koskie, Jones, etc were replace by Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel. With some high end talent banging around in the lower minors right now, like Royce Lewis, there's hope that the Twins could see a similar handoff from this group to another group. This adds to that chance. 2) So far, this front office looks pretty astute at gauging draft prospects (knock, knock). Royce Lewis looks tremendous. Rooker is obviously pretty exciting. It stands to reason these were guys that they liked but missed out on and have continued to target.

Aaron and John talk about - The slow start of the MLB offseason & why we blame Derek Jeter (5:00) - Minnesota Twins chances of signing Shohei Ohtani (17) - the Twins pursuit of top free agent starting pitchers (34) - The departure of Byung-Ho Park (42) - Arbitration non-decisions (63) - A few (very) minor league signings (71) - Minor league coaching musical chairs (79) - The 10 year anniversary of training for Delmon Young (92) - Terminator: both the movie and the Twins closer (99) - How the Wolves won a customer for life (104). You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

One of the most valuable features of Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook is Seth's complete listing of each position within the Twins organization. It's a fantastic reference, not just for the offseason, but for the rest of the year. You can check it out and name your own price right here. Here is a sample of some of the summaries, and it also includes complete lists:CATCHERS Jason Castro is signed through the 2019 season, so he’ll be around. He had his best offensive season since 2013 and his pitch framing statistics matched his reputation. Chris Gimenez didn’t have great numbers, but everyone loves having him on the roster. He’s a free agent and with Mitch Garver ready, it’s hard to think Gimenez would be back. Closest to the Big Leagues: Mitch Garver Twins Daily’s Hitter of the Year in 2014 and 2017, Garver had a very nice year at the plate. He took a bunch of walks and showed really good power in terms of both doubles and home runs in Rochester. He made his big-league debut in August and is certainly ready for a bigger role in the majors. Top Prospect: Ben Rortvedt Rortvedt was one of the youngest regulars in the Midwest League in 2017. While he struggled immensely at the plate in the first couple of months, he showed improvement as the season went along. Defensively, Rortvedt is already very good and can get better. He’s got the athleticism and a strong, accurate arm. Sleeper: Mitchell Kranson While Brian Navarreto got to AA late in the season due to his advanced defense and cannon of an arm, Kranson has become one to watch as well. He actually did more catching when he moved up to Ft. Myers at the season’s midway point. He’s got some work to do behind the plate, but he’s got a strong, left-handed swing that could generate power in time. FIRST BASE Joe Mauer is in the final year of his eight-year contract in 2018. He’s coming off of his best season since 2013. Could he come back for 2019 and beyond? Certainly. There isn’t an heir apparent near the big leagues, but there is talent in the pipeline. Closest to the Big Leagues: Brent Rooker The Twins drafted Rooker in the 38th round of the 2016 draft following his junior year at Mississippi State. He returned for his senior season and won the Triple Crown in the SEC. Good decision. The Twins used their supplemental first-round pick this year to draft the 22-year-old again. He reached Ft. Myers this season, hitting a combined 18 home runs over 62 games in his pro debut, and could move up quickly in 2018. Rooker has been working some in the outfield, but if circumstances dictate, he could be playing first base for the Twins as soon as 2019. Top Prospect: Lewin Diaz Diaz received a big signing bonus out of the Dominican Republic in 2013. He’s a big man (6-3, 250) with a ton of power potential. But he can also hit for average and use the whole field. As a 20-year-old in Cedar Rapids in 2017, he hit .292 with 33 doubles and 12 home runs. Sleeper: Zander Wiel The 24-year-old was Minnesota’s 12th-round draft pick in 2015 out of Vanderbilt. This year with the Miracle, he hit .250 but got on base over 34% of the time and added 30 doubles, six triples and 13 home runs (which is good for the Florida State League). If he were to get to the big leagues, it would be on the strength of his bat. This is part two of a five-part series of excerpts from the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook we published earlier this year. You can also check out Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 or just download the Handbook at whatever price you deem fair. Click here to view the article

This offseason has a loaded class of free agent relievers, exactly when the Twins need bullpen help. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook profiles 21 options and give you the tools to pick which one you think fits best. Over 700 readers have downloaded the Handbook and you can be next, at whatever price you think is fair. Here are a few samples of free agent relievers from the Handbook. The Twins bullpen was an area of concern heading into the 2017 season, and occasionally a costly weakness, but overall the unit acquitted itself nicely. There are a number of hurlers who did enough to make cases for jobs next year, including Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz and Ryan Pressly. Yet, for the first time in memory, the team is heading into November without a closer. The guy who entered 2017 with the gig is available, and so is the guy who held it down in the final two months. Whether or not they target someone with closer experience, the Twins need to add some serious firepower to the back end. Wade Davis, RHP Age: 32 | Previous Team: Cubs 2017 Stats: 58.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 79/28 K/BB He’s the one name in free agency that perfectly lines up with Minnesota’s ostensible need: an experienced closer capable of shutting down games. To that end, he’s a good bet. As Cubs closer, Davis didn’t blow a save this year until September and is one of the game’s most dominant arms. But he’s also a heavily-used high-effort thrower with a history of elbow scares. Are you ready to put up Chapman type money for him? Estimated Contract: 5 years, $80 million Steve Cishek, RHP Age: 31 | Previous Team: Rays 2017 Stats: 44.2 IP, 2.01 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 41/14 K/BB Cishek has history as a closer and as a setup man. He’s been successful at both. The sidearm sinkerballer is very much in the same mold as Trevor Hildenberger, but it doesn’t hurt to have two such reliable options on hand. He’s been an above-average reliever each of his six seasons in the league – the definition of steady. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30 million Pat Neshek, RHP Age: 37 | Previous Team: Rockies 2017 Stats: 62.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/6 K/BB Time for a homecoming? The Brooklyn Park native came up with the Twins originally but has been away since 2010. He was at his best in 2017, making the All Star game and finishing with a ridiculous 69-to-6 K/BB ratio in 62 innings. On a short-term deal, he could help bridge to the next generation of young bullpen arms. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $17 million Brandon Kintzler, RHP Age: 33 | Previous Team: Nationals 2017 Stats: 71.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39/16 K/BB We all know the story. The Twins went into seller mode just ahead of the deadline, and dealt their All Star closer to Washington. They did so knowing they’d have a chance to re-sign him a few months later. Now, Kintzler is on the table, and his heavy sinker still looks appealing after it continued to silence bats after the trade. His ability to induce whiffs continued to dwindle, though, so if he loses any of that sink... Estimated Contract: 2 years, $15 million Other Options: Brandon Morrow (33): Finally stayed healthy after a series if injury-ravaged years, and he was phenomenal out of the Dodgers bullpen. High-risk, high-reward. Juan Nicasio, RHP (31): He was outstanding in his first year of full-time relief duty, pumping 95 MPH fastballs and nasty sliders. Anthony Swarzak, RHP (32): If there’s no bad blood, Swarzak would make sense in the late innings for the team that originally drafted and developed him, provided you believe in his 2016 breakout. This is part two of a five-part series of excerpts from the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook we published earlier this year. You can also check out Part 1, Part 2 or just download the Handbook at whatever price you deem fair. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about 40-man roster additions and unprotected prospects, a couple of juicy baseball trade rumors for young aces, the Minnesota Twins' history in the Rule 5 MLB draft, targeting contract extensions for Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and more, what to do with Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer after next season, payroll optimism and pessimism, Jason Castro one year later, and remembering Terry Doyle. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

Every year we've published the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, we've included a payroll analysis for the Minnesota Twins, along with salaries of likely free agents so you can build your own 2018 roster. Even with recent speculation that the Twins purse strings will be loosened, we're publishing this year's story. You can read a lot more by downloading your own copy at your own price, right here. “Wait ‘Til Next Year!” has been the refrain of optimistic Twins fans for – well, pretty much the entire decade. The hope was that the next year would bring fewer injuries (2011) or new coaching (2014) or new management (2016) or breakthrough young talent (2012-2017). Eventually, we’ve seen all of those, but there is one piece we have not seen: aggressive spending on free agents. We’ve seen a couple of significant signings – some good (Ervin Santana) and some bad (Ricky Nolasco) – but the Twins’ payroll has been at or below the same level since they moved into Target Field.With a competitive team on the upswing, and a new management team in place, could this be the year that the Twins leverage the free agent market for their ultimate push to a championship level team? An analysis of the Twins’ committed payroll suggests... probably not. 1. We don’t know exactly how much they’ll spend, but payroll likely won’t increase much. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins opening day payroll has been stuck in the $105-108M range for spending the last three years. Plus, the MOST this franchise has ever spent was $113M, back in 2011. Also, Twins General Manager Thad Levine has already told us not to expect a sudden change in payroll. This August, at Baseball Prospectus’ event at Target Field, Levine said, “We all know where Minnesota’s payroll ranks among the 30 clubs. We’re not going to be in the top 10, and we’re fine with that.” Yes, they should see their revenues increase next year, so maybe they’ll be able to increase payroll a bit, but there is no indication that they will significantly. Forbes estimates that even in the midst of this decade of futility, the Twins gross revenues increased from $223M to $247M from 2015 through 2017. But we didn’t see any movement in payroll during that time. In fact, maintaining their same level of payroll moved the Twins downwards in spending compared to other teams as markets inflated. I’ll be optimistic and predict a very moderate increase of $110-$115M next year. 2. That doesn’t give them a lot of payroll room this offseason; perhaps an additional $15-20M. The Twins have about $96M committed to their 2018 roster, even if they don’t sign anyone as a free agent. The estimates are in the table after the story. Despite having many young and cost-controlled players, they have six commitments that account for over $72M of that $95M. $23M of that is the much-lamented Joe Mauer deal, but another $19.2M looks even worse: Phil Hughes is owed $13.2M and Byung-Ho Park has guaranteed money (for both him and his Korean team) of about $6M. And both of those deals will be in force in 2019, too, unlike Mauer’s contract which expires next year. 3. Speaking of bad contracts expiring, wait ‘til next year. (Maybe.) This is the offseason before two consecutive big years of expiring contracts. Next year, the Twins could have as many as $45.5M come off the books when Mauer’s contract and two others expire. Unfortunately, those two belong to Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana (if they decline his 2019 option), but the good news is that $45.5M can add a lot of talent to replace them. Eduardo Escobar’s $5 million will also come off the books unless you extend him or re-sign him as a free agent. Similarly, after 2019, the Twins could have as many as four contracts expire. Hughes’ and Park’s terrible contracts will come off the books, Jason Castro’s deal will end, and Kyle Gibson (if the Twins continue to offer him arbitration) will become a free agent. This year those four players are responsible for ~$31.7M in contracts. Add them all up, and of the $95.2M that we estimate is committed for 2018, $82.2M could be freed up for the 2019-20 offseason. If you’re pumped about this offseason, that is little consolation. But it should free up the new management team to be more aggressive in the future on the free agent market, even more so if ownership unties the purse strings a bit more. But all of that is unlikely to take place this offseason. The Twins late season surge gave fans a glimpse of what their team will look like for the next five years. But the familiar mantra – “Wait ‘til next year” – will likely apply regarding the team’s offseason spending, unless you get creative or get the uncharacteristic go-ahead on a big increase. This is part two of a five-part series of excerpts from the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook we published earlier this year. You can also check out Part 1 or just download the Handbook at whatever price you deem fair. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about Paul Molitor winning Manager of the Year, targeting right-handed hitters for an outfield role, giving up a draft pick to sign a free agent, voiding Jelfrey Marte's contract, the odds signing Shohei Otani, playing poker in Vegas with Lou Piniella, and doing your holiday shopping with our sponsors. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

This year's Twins Daily Offseason Handbook included profiles of 22(!) free agent starting pitchers that the Twins could pursue. Below are a few examples. You can still download your own Offseason Handbook AND name your own price right here. Acquiring starting pitchers through free agency is a fickle endeavor. Sometimes it goes right (Ervin Santana). Sometimes it goes wrong (Ricky Nolasco). Sometimes it goes very right, and then very wrong (Phil Hughes). Assessing these arms and how they’ll progress over the life of a contract will forever be an inexact science. But aiming higher typically yields better results.The Twins already have a number of credible starters in the mix, but if they are setting their sights on a postseason run, they could use a stud to slot in alongside Santana and Jose Berrios. This year’s class features some very noteworthy names. Jake Arrieta, RHP Age: 32 | Previous Team: Cubs 2017 Stats: 168.1 IP, 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory when he won the Cy Young in 2015, and he won 18 games in 2016. He didn’t look like himself in the first half this year, but pulled things together in the second half, posting a 2.28 ERA after the break. He turns 32 in March and his fastball velocity was at a career low (92.1 MPH), so there might be some hesitation in his market, but the Scott Boras client will get paid. Estimated Contract: 6 years, $168 million Lance Lynn, RHP Age: 30 | Previous Team: Cardinals 2017 Stats: 186.1 IP, 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP After missing 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lynn came back strong in 2017, starting every fifth day and getting better as the season progressed. His velocity trended upward throughout the summer and in the second half he mostly looked like a rotation-fronter. Lynn has a 3.38 career ERA and has been extremely reliable in St. Louis. He’s also two years younger than Arrieta. Estimated Contract: 6 years, $150 million Yu Darvish, RHP Age: 31 | Previous Team: Dodgers 2017 Stats: 186.2 IP, 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP He is one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers, with an 11.0 K/9 rate that ranks first among active starters since coming over from Japan in 2012. The results haven’t always lined up with the spectacular stuff, and this year in particular Darvish had his battles, especially with the long ball. He posted the highest ERA and lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2017, so there’s some risk here, but Darvish certainly has the ability to slot as an ace. Estimated Contract: 5 years, $135 million Other Options: Alex Cobb, RHP (30): Cobb’s market will be interesting to see. He hasn’t been quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery but was still quite effective this year (3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and set a career high for innings. Jaime Garcia, LHP (31): The left-hander enjoyed a lengthy and illustrious career with the Twins, making one start in July as the Twins flipped from buyers to sellers. On the right terms he’d be a fine addition, but his upside is limited. Francisco Liriano, LHP (34): Reunion time? All these years later, Liriano is still struggling to find himself. He pitched out of the bullpen exclusively after a deadline trade to Houston, and might be more interesting in that capacity if he could just throw some dang strikes. Michael Pineda, RHP (29): He’s one of the game’s better strikeout pitchers and a former young phenom, but Pineda has already gone through a bunch of shoulder issues and he underwent Tommy John in June. Do you ink him on a two-year contract, hoping he can help down the stretch in 2018 but more with an eye on scoring big value in 2019? CC Sabathia, LHP (37): As a member of the Indians and Yankees, he’s been a thorn in Minnesota’s side for almost two decades. His performance in the past two seasons suggests he’s not done getting results. Plus, if he joins up, he’ll never need to face the Twins’ bunt-happy offense. There are 62 pages of Twins-focused offseason goodness just waiting for you to obsess over. Just name your own price and you can immediately download theTwins Daily Offseason Handbook. Click here to view the article

That's one million more than I projected for next year; I don't know which is more accurate. But if it is, what do you think would be more fair? Like this? • 2018 as a 24-year-old, $1 million • 2019 as a 25-year-old, $4 million • 2020 as a 26-year-old, $8 million • 2021 as a 27-year-old, $11 million • 2022 as a 28-year-old, $14 million • 2023 as a 29-year-old, team option of $16 million That's $38M guaranteed and the Twins keep him for two years of free agency. That seems a little heavy to me, but I'd be happy enough with something in between the two proposals. (I'd trade away the higher salaries for the second team option year.)

Finally, regarding Dozier, I'll publish a longer version of my blueprint for that section below. (It's also not a bad reminder that a writer, when revisiting a first draft, can ax quite a bit out of it and still get the point across. Just compare it to the first section.) Thanks again for the comments. Keep 'em coming. I'll check in later with more replies. ------------------------------------------------ 2. Shop Brian Dozier The verb is “shop” not “trade.” But he’s far from untouchable and unless he is willing to take a very team-friendly contract (without a no-trade clause) the Twins should definitely not extend him. Dozier is very good, but he’s not irreplaceable. He’s also 30 years old and his next contract will likely last until he’s 35 years old. He’s also going to be expensive, probably costing whoever signs him in free agency upwards of $15M/year. And for the Twins, there are other options on the roster. Moving him allows the Twins to move Jorge Polanco to second base, which could upgrade the Twins defensively at both shortstop and at second base, where Dozier has been slightly below average for the last couple of years. Ehire Adrianza could play shortstop for the year, with Nick Gordon waiting in the wings. I won’t deny it hurts the team a little for 2018, but the defensive upgrade helps, and I’m looking at impacts beyond 2018. Plus, he could command quite a bit in return. Despite conventional wisdom, Dozier is not worth less this year than he was last offseason. The return the Twins can demand is dependent on how many teams want him, not how many years those teams can squeeze out of him before free agency. Last year, they had one team interested, and therefore he wasn’t worth anything more than a questionable prospect. There is one more advantage this year: the Twins don’t solely need to be interested in soon-to-the-majors, high-upside pitching prospects. They already have those: Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero. That was one of the problems with last year’s trade market; the Twins were only interested in getting pitching in return. This year, they can trade him for prospects or high-upside relievers or international money or whatever. Again, I’m not saying “trade Dozier.” I’m saying don’t be afraid to trade Dozier. The time to shop a player is when you don’t need to shop them. Also, when they are about to get old. Also, when they’re about to get expensive. And finally, the best time is just before they become a free agent. Our attachment to Dozier might blind us from these objective truths, but now is the time to explore trading him.

First, on moving the dial: I'm not trying to move the dial for 2018. I'm hoping the continued development of the young players in the lineup plus that in the rotation (Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero) provides they take an incremental step forward this year. I'm trying to prepare them for a big leap in the future. I was hoping that leap would come from placing Tanaka atop the rotation, but if that is not to be, then I'll settle for keeping my powder dry. BTW, if you're interested in learning about the possibilities and challenges of signing a big name starting pitcher, I highly recommend this week's Gleeman and the Geek podcast.

Are you saying it isn't enough money? I'll lay it out: Provided Byron Buxton continues to progress, here is a rough estimate of what he (and Twins fans) can expect over the next five years: • 2018 as a 24-year-old, $550,000 • 2019 as a 25-year-old, $4 million • 2020 as a 26-year-old, $8 million • 2021 as a 27-year-old, $12 million • 2022 as a 28-year-old, signs for a gazillion dollars as a free agent with the Yankees. If they do nothing, the Twins hang on to him for four years and pay him $24.5 million. Alternately, the Twins could offer a guaranteed contract that looks like this: • 2018 as a 24-year-old, $1 million • 2019 as a 25-year-old, $3 million • 2020 as a 26-year-old, $6.5 million • 2021 as a 27-year-old, $10 million • 2022 as a 28-year-old, $12 million • 2023 as a 29-year-old, team option of $15 million with a $2 million buyout • 2024 as a 30-year-old, team option of $17 million • 2025 as a 31-year-old, signs for a gazillion dollars as a free agent with the Yankees. This way, the Twins get seven years of Buxton, the last two of which is under their prerogative. Buxton gets $32.5 million guaranteed, plus he still is a free agent while he’s only 31 years old.

I'll respond to the Dozier comment in another comment. Yes, signing those three (and I should've included Kepler, who will be a Super 2) requires two sides to agree. But it's common that happens. I'd say the chances for each of them is 75/25. It's just plan hard to turn down a $20-30M guaranteed contract. But mostly what I'm saying is that trying to do so should be a huge priority this offseason. #1, really.

I fought with the same "nimble" issue on mine, which is why I tried to make it about priorities. My top priority, my biggest splash, are the long-term deals. As far as what happens with Step 2, I think I kind of laid it out: 1. If I get back SP, that fits in well. 2. If I get back RP, then switch to chasing a veteran fill-in, like Sabathia, for Step 3. 3. If I get an offer back for a different fit, like a prospect I think can be a difference-maker in the future, then stay the course. Thanks for commenting. Keep 'em comimg.

GREAT comments, per usual from the TD community. I'll start quoting and replying as I have some time....