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John Bonnes

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  1. This is a really nice story. Thank you for contributing it. I'd love to have you post a few of these topics in the forum. Literally, #1 could be a topic. #2 could be a great topic. #3 could be a topic and have a Twins slant to it. I don't want to steal them from you, so if you have a chance, please, throw those out there.
  2. I gotta agree with 1EJ, I think you're anti-Gardenhire view is blinding you to some stuff here. I will agree with one thing - it is frustrating to often see a smear campaign against Twins players after some of these moves. I don't know if it's the Twins, or the media, or if it's justified or not. I'll also note that it isn't always consistent - for instance, we didn't hear anything like this about Revere earlier in the week, and that was at least as unpopular a move as Hughes. The assumption seems to be that if we don't hear it, it's because it's one of Gardy's guys and if we do hear it it's because it isn't. But that's only the conclusion if you start out with it as the assumption. It could be the media likes some guys attitude more than others. It could be team leaders (or media-friendly players) conclusions. Or it could be (believe it or not) that the perceptions are accurate.
  3. By the way, after that second Casilla miscue in the inning (and the terrible at-bat earlier in the game), I was all about keeping Valencia right where he was and benching Casilla for Dozier. Like immediately. And that's after a very good week for Casilla. Lord, but he was frustrating last night.
  4. I was listening to the game, not watching it at that point. Gladden was incredulous. Provus said that on the replay, Casilla just stopped a few feet short of the bag, like he lost track of it. But I heard your version from several people. I'd be interested in more detail about what you saw. Because, I gotta say, it's inconceivable to me that a second baseman with Casilla's speed (and who should probably be anticipating a bunt) cannot make it to first base before a batter, even if it is Jennings.
  5. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?457-SABR-Twins-Watching-Party-TONIGHT
  6. The local SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) chapter is having a Twins-Rays Viewing Party tonight at 6:05 in the back room of the "new" Alley Sports Bar. If you've ever been interested in learning more about the various activities and research of the local SABR chapter, join me and meet other baseball geeks and cheer the Twins to a winning road trip. With the national SABR convention happening in the Twin Cities June 27th - July 1st, there isn't a better time to check things out. The viewing party will start at 6:05 in the back room of the Alley Sports Bar (formerly Smalley's 87 Club) in Butler Square at 100 North 6th St in Minneapolis. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
  7. Oh, I don't think it would happen now. I'm thinking maybe end of May or beginning of June.
  8. Between Parmelee's strikout last night, Valencia's first pitch pop up tonight and Casilla's pop fly bunt and double play tonight, I"m a little disgusted by some of these guys abilities to have a quality at bat right now.
  9. When the Twins signed Carroll, Ryan made a point of saying that Carroll can play third base. As I watched Valencia pop out on a first pitch that looked high and outside, I thought to myself "I wonder if the Twins would think about calling up Dozier to play shortstop and move Carroll to third base?" Just had a thought I'd run past people. I'm not sure how I feel about it.
  10. It's a fair point, and on the one hand, I'd love to have a real bench bat that I was confident in. That, to me, would be what this team could use right now. A veteran DHish guy. But on the other hand, part of the issue is that the bench is already much better than it has been in the past. On most night, Gardy can turn to a decent choice or at least work things to have a matchup in his favor. Even now, I don't even mind the 13-man pitching staff. If anything, this team needs a lot more bullpen options than bench options. And that's because it doesn't look like a bad offensive team right now.
  11. Ramos was a fulltime guy, that's why he wasn't there. I'll take your word on Morales. I personally might have given Rivera more time, but it's worth noting that he hit .144 in the majors. So there might be an edge there, but it's a small edge. Plus, it only shows that a) the organization didn't choose the right, nearly worthless catcher, but that hardly shows a Gardenhire bias. And that Gardenhire is going to be anxious to give whoever comes up a lot of at-bats. I'm not saying Gardy doesn't like Butera. I just don't see a lot of evidence that he's going to give him a dangerously large role.
  12. But he doesn't have much time. I gotta think they'll at least try calling him up this year.
  13. I'm still puzzled by this perception. I asked for evidence that Gardenhire is somehow partial to Butera in another thread and don't think I got a reply. Like I said, in 2010, when Mauer was the only catcher, Butera got 155 plate appearances. Last year, Butera got a ton of at-bats, but Mauer was hurt and there just weren't much in the way of other options. And this year, he was presumably involved in the decision to send Butera down before Towles and was the primary decisionmaker to carry Burroughs over a 3rd catcher. I'm honestly asking - why are we so convinced that Gardenhire has a mancrush on Butera? I suppose the evidence could be Gardenhire quotes raving about Butera's defense, but what does that really prove? Only that Gardenhire feels the need to publicly reward a guy for playing defense (or publicly defend a guy he knows can't hit his way out of a paper bag.) If he didn't do that, wouldn't we criticize him for going after him like Valencia.
  14. By "knee-jerk", I meant that it is a reflex, and in our case, it's a learned reflex. It might be fun to get mad about, but I think the criticism melts a bit when faced by any real analysis. As for "useless" - that's my point. Yeah, Butera is relatively useless. So would be an extra middle infielder. Or a 5th outfielder. Or a 13th pitcher. To me, whatever move the Twins make is almost a freebie.
  15. Both of those names are intriguing. I don't think it's too crazy to think they could call up Guerra straight from AA. He's been on the 40 man roster for at least 2 years, right? So would next year be his last option year? 8K in 8IP with no walks and just three hits? That's awfully encouraging. Did anyone else see DeVries having this good of a start in AAA? I didn't. 15/4 in 15 IP.
  16. Again, this is the beauty of it. That's exactly what it does. If you add up all the positive WPA and negative WPA for the winning team, it equals .5. If you add them up for the losing team, it equals -.5. And if you add up all the cumulative WPA for all the members of a team, it's equal to "how many games the team is over .500" times .5.
  17. A little back of the napkin figuring.... In 2010, when he was on the roster the whole year and Mauer's primary backup, Butera got 155 AB in 170 plate appearances. Let's assume he gets about 150 plate appearances, though that seems high. Furthermore, let's ONLY take a look at offensive impact, not counting any defensive value. According to Baseball-reference.com, Butera has created 20 runs in 407 plate appearances or .048 runs per plate appearance. Meanwhile, Hughes has created 31 runs in 335 plate appearances, or .092 per plate appearances. The difference between those guys is .044 runs per plate appearance. Over 150 plate appearance thats....6.6 runs difference. That's 2/3 of a win or less than 1% of the runs the Twins will produce this year. It is also well within reach of what Butera could add just by gunning down a few baserunners. I spent most of the offseason on the podcast asking that the Twins get some reasonable alternatives to Butera. But from a practical standpoint, they have. This kvetching seems like a knee-jerk reaction, a bad habit that we've developed, a Pavlovian defense mechanism.
  18. Hey, I'm in. A good marching/drinking song, especially a cheesy one, is always welcome at a baseball game.
  19. I'm a little intrigued by the hand-wringing about this. What is the concern, exactly? 1. Are we worried about losing one of the bullpen pitchers to waivers? (I have a little trouble believing that.) 2. Is there a different player we want called up who would provide so much more value as the last guy on the bench? (It can't be Hughes, because it hasn't been 10 days, right?) I can understand being generally opposed to having a 3rd catcher, just like I can understand being generally opposed to a 13 man pitching staff. But this isn't a theoretical situation. From a practical standpoint, what is the downside here?
  20. I don't know if I want Parmelee bunting in that situation (or any situation), but it is REALLY disappointing that he didn't move the runner over there. Incidentally, the Twins chances of winning that game dropped 10% with that at bat. It was a huge at bat, obviously.
  21. Lord, but do I want to take a series from the Yankees at Yankee stadium. I don't think I'm overstating things when I say that Twins fans need this. We judge our team way too much by how they compare to the Yankees. Taking three of four changes the vibe in this city a bunch.
  22. ??? I think we might be talking about something different. The Oriioles had a 92.6% chance of winning that game going into the 8th. http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2012-04-08&team=Orioles&dh=0&season=2012
  23. Regarding the original topic, I'd say: 1) it may not happen anytime soon, unless there is an injury 2) The reliever who is sent down is whoever sucks the most at the time and 3) the guy called up will likely be dependent on who is fighting some nagging injury on the team. If it was right now, I'd say the need is for Hughes. I can't see it being Revere - what role would he play? I guess I can see it being a shortstop, probably Nishioka, if they're worried enough about Plouffe's D. But I don't see why they woudl be in any hurry to move someone right now.
  24. I dont' know where this perception comes from, but I assure you, it would be hard to type a more untrue statement. The tension between Smith and Gardy was palpable. I'll be honest - I don't know where the percetpion that Gardy loves Butera comes from. I see it mentioned here a lot. The Twins sent Butera down early, did not keep a 3rd catcher, and yet everyone is convinced Gardy loves Butera. Why? Because Butera played a lot? Butera played a lot because Gardy uses his bench guys a lot, because it's important Mauer rests a lot and because Butera was on the roster. Am I missing some smoking gun here?
  25. The glass half full guys would note that the Twins are now 4-5 versus 3 90+ win teams, and they could easily be 6-3 if they hadn't stranded the world in Game 2 or Perkins had fessed up about his arm prior to blowing that 3rd game versus the Angels. Of cours,e they could be 4-12 by this time next week. I wouldn't be shocked if they were.
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