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John Bonnes

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Everything posted by John Bonnes

  1. John Bonnes
    You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?541-Gleeman-the-Geek-Ep-41-Shake-ups-and-Wake-ups
  2. John Bonnes
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]947[/ATTACH]Aaron and John talk about the latest roster shakeup, including Danny Valencia's demotion to Triple-A and Francisco Liriano's move to the bullpen, get a call from Aaron's mom for Mother's Day, marvel at Scott Diamond's unexpected gems, make their PickPointz picks and name last week's winners, and wonder what the future holds for Trevor Plouffe and Joe Benson. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes
  3. John Bonnes
  4. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about the latest roster shakeup, including Danny Valencia's demotion to Triple-A and Francisco Liriano's move to the bullpen, get a call from Aaron's mom for Mother's Day, marvel at Scott Diamond's unexpected gems, make their PickPointz picks and name last week's winners, and wonder what the future holds for Trevor Plouffe and Joe Benson. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
  5. John Bonnes
    I just listened to Denard Span short circuit a potential rally by trying to steal second base with runners on the corners and one out. He was caught. I wondered if that was an especially stupid decision. It turns out, it's not that risky. Or at least it's not if you accept that a baserunner usually needs to steal bases about 2/3 of the time to be effective. Generally, one studies something like this using Palmer & Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. You can find it here. Here's the numbers we care about: 1. 1.088 - That's how many runs a team on average would score with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out. 2. 1.371 - If Span would've stolen the base, that's how many runs the average team would've scored. 3. 0.382 - If he was caught, that's how many runs the average team would score. So Span risked a gain of .283 runs if he stole that base, but a loss of .706 if he was caught. Converting those to percentages, if he steals that base 71% of the time, the team breaks even. That's not especially different than the 2/3 view that is the case for most base stealers. This wasn't especially risky.
  6. John Bonnes
    I just listened to Denard Span short circuit a potential rally by trying to steal second base with runners on the corners and one out. He was caught. I wondered if that was an especially stupid decision. It turns out, it's not that risky. Or at least it's not if you accept that a baserunner usually needs to steal bases about 2/3 of the time to be effective. Generally, one studies something like this using Palmer & Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. You can find it here. Here's the numbers we care about: 1. 1.088 - That's how many runs a team on average would score with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out. 2. 1.371 - If Span would've stolen the base, that's how many runs the average team would've scored. 3. 0.382 - If he was caught, that's how many runs the average team would score. So Span risked a gain of .283 runs if he stole that base, but a loss of .706 if he was caught. Converting those to percentages, if he steals that base 71% of the time, the team breaks even. That's not especially different than the 2/3 view that is the case for most base stealers. This wasn't especially risky.
  7. John Bonnes
    I've been as annoyed with the Twins as anyone about not giving Slama more of an opportunity in the majors. I just don't believe the difference is so large that a guy can be that dominant at AAA and not serviceable in the majors. But it is kind of telling that nobody (not even "progressive" clubs enamored with K/9 ratios) picked him up when he was taken off the 40-man.
  8. John Bonnes
    In 2009, I did a quick and dirty study on what metrics best predict and ERA for the following year. It turns out that K/BB isn't particularly good for that. More surprising to me was that ground ball percentage was completely random. (Now that I see that, I want to revisit that study. That seems like it would be an error.) And the big conclusion is that almost nothing predicts it well. There's a lot of "secret sauce" in pitching. That study is here, for those that are interested.
  9. John Bonnes
    I suspect the same. Carroll, mostly. Some Plouffe.
  10. John Bonnes
    I'm not sure I totally understand what this means. If the point is that Valencia's ceiling is pretty low, I agree. But I still think Valencia could have a Coomerific career in the majors. And I always cut a little slack to 3B for their age. For some reason, a lot of them make it to the bigs a bit later. One other point I should have made in the story: right about now it might be nice to have Luke Hughes in the organization.
  11. John Bonnes
    By unlucky, I was referring to Liriano being left-handed. If he was right-handed, I think someone else would have gone.
  12. John Bonnes
    You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?531-Changing-Focus-The-Danny-Valencia-Francisco-Liriano-Moves
  13. John Bonnes
    At some (very depressing) point, as a season becomes turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight. At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight. Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus. I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice. I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it? Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option. If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease. As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever. The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise.
  14. John Bonnes
    At some (very depressing) point, as a season becomes turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight. At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight. Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus. I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice. I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it? Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option. If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease. As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever. The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise.
  15. John Bonnes
    At some (very depressing) point, as a season turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight. At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight. Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice. I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it? Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option. If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease. As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever. The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise.
  16. John Bonnes
    I'd be up for moving Liriano to the bullpen, just to see if anything positive comes of it. If something does, relief pitchers are in demand at the trade deadline, especially left-handers. Maybe then they could unload his salary. (Not that the Twins are likely to do much with it at this point.) I can't see any way out with Blackburn. Hope he turns it around and dump him to the first person that shows any interest. That contract was a huge mistake and everyone thought so at the time except the Twins. I'd love to get a sense of what they were thinking.
  17. John Bonnes
    I seriously wonder if the Twins would go after Buxton if he was available. Or would consider Correa. Either would be a gutsy move considering how much they need pitching. I'm not sure I'd even want them to.
  18. John Bonnes
    I heard about that change, but couldn't find it documented. Thanks for the insight. I keep hearing this argument about "calling up a 25-year-old" regarding Super 2, and it makes no sense to me. Certainly, it is MORE important for a superstar - the difference might be $3-4M/year instead of $1-2M per year. And I can see that age might be more important for when someone hits free agency - I'd rather lose Dozier at 32 than at 28. But the free agency issue is moot shortly after the beginning of the season. Is the argument that Dozier isn't going to be good enough to hang onto through five or six years? Or that in the grand scheme of things teams don't really care about $1-$2 of blown money in a given year?
  19. John Bonnes
    I was more impressed with Dozier's arm than I expected. That's nice to see and explains how he was getting to some of those grounders in the hole. I'll try and watch him a little more closely at the game tonight.
  20. John Bonnes
    I'll give my spin for the data. 1) The Twins extended a successful organizational run for years based on high pick, college pitchers that moved up the ladder fairly rapidly. However... 2) In 2006 and 2007 the didn't put any high picks towards pitchers. Then, 3) in 2008 the two they got were busts and 4) 2009 and 2010 have been creamed by injuries to some fairly impactful arms. Add that up and you get a short cycle in the minor league which hasn't been fed for five years, leaving it nearly destitute. That drought was seemingly self-inflicted early (anyone remember why the Twins went away from college pitcher in those drafts?) followed by a combination of bad luck and busts. The way to get through that is to get some arms from lower rounds or trades. The former has NEVER been a strength and the latter only worked through he early part of the decade.
  21. John Bonnes
    Obviously, if Dozier sucks, it's a moot point. But if he becomes the regular shortstop - even if he's only worth a couple of years of arbitration, it's a couple of million bucks. It's not my money, so I don't care much. It's just odd. It whiffs of a bit of panic.
  22. John Bonnes
    I suppose Butera could be in the lineup because he had success with Diamond in Rochester. Try to make him feel comfortable. I'm not saying it's a great reason. I will also point out that this is Butera has been with the team for a almost a week and he's had all of 2 AB. It might be a little alarmist to suggest he's swallowing up a ton of AB. But yes, I'd rather see Parmelee.
  23. John Bonnes
    First, it sounds like the Pohlad answered a question, not approached the subject. So for those thinking there is something telling by the subject being raised, I'd say "no, there isn't." Second, what little I know about the Pohlads suggests that their confidence isn't going to be shaken because of the results/crowds after a decade of success from Ryan and Gardenhire, especially considering Ryan hasn't been at the helm for most of the last four years. My gawd, look how long they stuck with Ryan in the 90s with ZERO success on his GM resume. Finally, I'll say that I think the Pohlads are right to stick with them. This franchise is in decline, not because of major mismanaging, but because of a natural cycle of success. In fact, I'd say just the opposite - that given their situation, the franchise has had much longer sustained success than we've seen by other team and their front offices. That's the reason why this stings so bad. (And possibly why the minor league coffers are so empty.) But I think they'll trust the Twins to the same management team to rebuild.
  24. John Bonnes
    I'll pass along one eye-opener from that article: The Twins have 14 HRs and the next lowest number in the AL is 21. Yikes.
  25. John Bonnes
    You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?522-Opening-Presents-Too-Early
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