John Bonnes

Download attachment: Nolasco_Ricky_Pitching_US_600.jpg The Minnesota Twins front office likely watched with interest yesterday as one of the bigger chips on the trade market was moved. The Marlins traded starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco to the Dodgers for three third-tier prospects and $200 grand in international signing money, and the Dodgers agreed to pay the $5+ million remaining on Nolasco's contract this year. Nolaso was perceived as one of the better pitchers on the trade market. The deal's details suggest some truths about the trade market this year: There Are A Lot Of Teams Looking For Pitching, And It Doesn't Need To Be High-End Pitching This is the second starting pitcher we're seen traded this week and neither of them is Matt Garza, the premier name. Often, teams will wait to trade a player like Nolasco until the bigger name has been traded, since then the remaining teams come looking for the next best pitcher. Instead, the Dodgers looked at Garza's asking price and got aggressive at the next level of pitching, just like the Orioles did earlier this week. That probably bodes well for a trade involving Kevin Correia, though there are still plenty of other pitchers between him and the top of the list, pitchers like Cliff Lee, Bud Norris, Yovanni Gallardo and maybe Kyle Lohse. Teams Want To Keep Their Prospects A fair number of GMs are coming out and saying publicly they will not trade away their blue chip prospects. Yesterday we talked about how the Orioles walked away from a deal for Garza for the 50th and 100th best prospects, neither of which would be considered blue chip. Today, that lesson is reinforced when you look at what the Dodgers gave up for the 2nd best option on the market. You will not find any of the three arms the Marlins received on a Top 100 list. In fact, you won't find them on the Marlins Top 10 prospect list. Or their Top 20. This past off-season all three would have been ranked by Baseball America between 21 and 25 for the Marlins system. Two of them have already been converted to relievers, so that's likely their ceiling. Teams are clinging, with a death-like grip, to their best prospects. International Signing Money Is A Thing We're seeing the inclusion of international signing money in a bunch of trades this month. Considering the Twins had the fourth most of any team going into this season, they might have some extra leverage. However, it isn't clear the Twins have much they can trade away. According to Jeremy Nygaard, The Twins had about $2M left over after their first few big signings. Then they wrapped up Ruar Verkerk from the Netherlands, which definitely cut into that, but we don't yet know how much. Also, they're rumored to be chasing a Taiwanese pitcher, Jen-Ho Tseng, along with some other teams. He ranks 29th overall, according to MLB.com. That will cost some money. There are other top international prospects that are still unsigned, so these additional dollars that teams are trading for might be the difference in getting some of these kids signed. It adds a new dimension to the trade market this year, and one could see the Twins trading away extra dollars, or trading for extra dollars if they can't pry away prospects. Then they could use that money to sign some high-end, albeit 16-year-old high-end, talent. It might also mean that teams are interested in making trades for those dollars now, since a lot of the highly ranked kids will be signed by late July, and teams won’t need the extra dollars. It may be driving the earlier trades we’re seeing this year. Real Money Is A Thing, Too The $5.5 million that Nolasco was owed for this year definitely decreased the prospect haul for the Marlins. That's good news for a team trying to trade Kevin Correia, who is relatively cheap. It's not very good news for a team interested in trading Justin Morneau, who has even more than that left on his deal this year. For instance, the Rockies were interested in Nolasco, but were never going to be in a position to pay that much this year. (Incidentally, Todd Helton is their regular first baseman. Yes, the same Todd Helton that was around when you were young. His OPS is 695.) As far as I know, the Twins have never done a trade where they pick up part of the contract of the player they traded away, but if ever there was a season to do so, this is it. We know they didn't spend all of their offseason money when Joe Saunders walked away from an open offer. The amount they can spend on the amateur draft and international draft is capped. And Morneau's salary is already included in this year's budget number anyway. Their budget doesn’t need that $5M. If swallowing the rest of that salary allows them to upgrade the prospects they get in a trade, they should be considering it. There are very few avenues for spending leftover money this year to upgrade the future. This is one of the few remaining. Click here to view the article

I know the Twins still have five days until they get to play the Orioles, but I can’t wait. The roster is set. There are a couple more meaningless games against the Rays, because you can’t play enough meaningless games against the Rays. And then a game versus the Miracle? Really? I’ll be damned if I’m not going to look forward to Friday. Orioles By The Numbers Overall 69.5 – The over/under Vegas set for Orioles wins this year. Which means if they go 70-92, they would still exceed expectations. That’s the worst over/under in the American League.Download attachment: Buck-Showalter_Pointing-Sidebar.jpg 103-116 – Manager Buck Showalter’s record with the Orioles. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 2-6 – Twins record against the Orioles last year. Pitching 30 – Where the Orioles whole pitching staff ranked in ERA last year, one spot behind the Twins. 5.39 – The collective ERA of the Orioles starting rotation, worst in the major leagues. 0.57 – How much worse that ERA was than the second worst team. 3 – Days before the season opener that Showalter will be announcing his Opening Day starting pitcher and the rest of the Orioles rotation. That’s Tuesday. 13 – Combined number of wins the Opening Day starting pitching candidates, Jake Arrieta and Tommy Hunter, had last year. (Both are right-handers.) Offseason $3.25M – Biggest contract the Orioles paid to a free agent from MLB this offseason. That’s not per year - that’s total. $19.5M – Amount Orioles spent on a pair of Japanese starting pitchers, Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada. .290 – The highest batting average of an Orioles everyday player last year. It belonged to Vladimir Guerrero, who was not signed during the offseason and is considering playing in Japan. Offense 14th – Where the Orioles offense ranked in runs scored last year in MLB. 196 – Number of times Orioles third baseman Mark Reynolds struck out last season while hitting .221. .806 – The highest OPS of any Oriole regular last year. It belonged to Mark Reynolds. 7/9 – The fraction of this year’s Orioles lineup that had an OPS of at least 750 last year. 0 - Percent chance JJ Hardy will not be ready for Opening Day, according to JJ Hardy. He’s been out for a week with discomfort in his right shoulder and received a cortisone shot for it on Thursday. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Ron Gardenhire_600_321.jpg The Minnesota Twins add some coaches and drop some players. From Surly Darkness Days, Aaron and John review their beers against thrash metal, break down the changes, wonder what the new coaches mean, debate the relative value of Ron Gardenhire, recap their motorcycle adventure, review the players who have been droppped, collect on old debts, speculate on might fill the 40-man roster spots, explain how Aaron is like Bill Smith, wonder if Scott Baker will re-sign and tease the next podcast including an interview with Terry Ryan.Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: ring_pen.JPG If you didn't read these blog posts yesterday, you might want to check them out... TwinsArmChairGM talks about a couple of candidates for that second pick in the amateur draft that the Twins have.Kirsten Brown breaks down the option of carrying two or three catchers on the 25-man roster. There was also some discussion about how realistic carrying only two catchers was.This weekend is the Oscars, so Cody Christie turns Twins headlines into Oscar movie plots.And VeryWellThen recaps Major League Baseball's shocking announcement that they'll replace the All-Star Game with The Hunger Games.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Today's links include the analytical, the hopeful and the whimsical:Download attachment: 279_civil-war-soldiers2eee.jpg Analytical Thryloss updates his bullpen and bench dashboards with yesterday's results. A couple of previously maligned bullpen arms put their best foot forward, as did Brian Dozier. Hopeful Twins Fan From Afar is getting hopeful watching Danny Valencia this spring. He reviews Valencia's time in the majors, both good and bad. Whimsical MrHorrorPants relates the Twins upcoming season to a Civil War campaign. It's every bit as righteous and scary as one might expect. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

What are pitchers focusing on in the first couple of spring training games? It's pretty basic, but requires some balance. Yesterday's starting pitcher, Scott Diamond, explained "At this point right now, first outing, I'm trying to attack the zone. My focus right now is working down." Closer Glen Perkins, who pitched a scoreless fifth inning, echoed that sentiment. "I just wanna command the ball. I want to throw strikes. I want to get ahead of hitters and keep the ball down, which after [Grady] Sizemore, I did a pretty good job of."[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And despite the inevitable stories about guys working on new pitches, that means mostly airing out fastballs. Perkins threw almost exclusively fastballs. Download attachment: Glen Perkins 2.jpg "I threw fastballs for strikes and threw one slider to get AJ [Pierzynski] at the end. I wasn't planning on throwing a slider. Josmil called one and that was a good time." Diamond mixed things up a bit more. "I threw everything. Only a couple changeups. Only a couple curveballs. Mostly fastball-happy." They hope that by doing so, they gain a little insight that they can use later. Diamond talked to pitching coach Rick Anderson after his outing about being fluid. "[Anderson] said that some of those pitches today I was nice and easy and fluid with, and some of them were a little tight. And when I'm a little tighter, that really restricts my motion. Or at least delayed action on my baseball, on my pitch." Perkins emphasized that there is a balancing act surrounding getting oneself ready. On the one hand, "I'm not into game situations. I just want to make sure I'm throwing my pitches. That's first and foremost, making sure that the pitches are ready to go." But on the other hand, part of getting ready is proving to himself that he is ready. "What got me into this position is coming to camp ready to go, ready to compete, going out there and throwing well. I don't want to have to make excuses that it's only spring training so my results don't matter. I want to go out and I want to pitch well. I think that instills confidence in me and it instills confidence in the coaching staff." But above all, the goal is to stay healthy. Perkins is looking to avoid over-stressing his arm. "I want to find that happy medium of effort and velocity and not going out there and having to overextend, having to overthrow. Where it comes out easy, it comes out good. You find that balance as the spring goes on." While Diamond wonders if some of his trouble last year weren't a result of not being healthy in the spring. "Last year in spring training, being hurt, facing GCL-Rookie ball guys? To be able to come out [this] spring in this kind of atmosphere, get the heart pumping a little bit, it's definitely going to help me get better adjusted for the season." So far, so good for Diamond. He's very happy to report he felt perfectly fine. "That's the big thing. Felt really good. Felt strong for the most part. Little anxious, though." That's natural. Nerves can be another thing to work on in spring training. Click here to view the article

I'll say this: it would be interesting to see what would happen if the Twins just promoted a bunch of talent, ready or not, and had them work things out at the major league level. I worry it might be a complete disaster, truly a five-lane wide car accident, but it worked in the late 90s - several years later.

Congratulations guys!

Download attachment: strike.gif Aaron and John share some exciting news about the podcast and the unexciting news surrounding the Twins 0-4 start. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews) our new sponsors: KFAN & Pickpointz. Click here to view the article

I think he's going to cost $3M+ next year, and at that price, I'm not sure the Twins will keep him. So why not? We have a few left-handed options in rochester that they could sort through in August and September: Kirs Johnson, Sean Gilmartin, Aaron Thompson, Edgar Ibarra. Get a low level guy that the Twins scouts are a little higher on than most. This is the kind of trade at which Terry Ryan usually excels.

Waddya say we watch us some baseball?Download attachment: Wild_Boar_Wood_Logo.jpg Our first chance to see the Twins on TV is this Monday night, so why not celebrate with some Twins fans? Aaron Gleeman and I will be at The Wild Boar on Monday night (3/5 at 6:05) for our weekly podcast and kicking back to watch the Twins. Hopefully, you can join us, bring your questions and help us revel in end of the offseason. We'll see you there! For more on the event, or just to hear our candid takes on the Twins, check out our latest podcast. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: drew-butera-twins.jpg It’s possible that Minnesota Twins fans, and Twins Daily fans in particular, got a little too worked up about Drew Butera’s Twins career. I’ll grant you that. Nevertheless, it was big news when the Twins lone “trade deadline” move was trading Butera to the Dodgers. The immediate announcement was for a “player to be named later” who ended up being Miguel Subran, an A-ball pitching prospect.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Certainly Butera hadn’t impacted the Twins much in 2013 – he had only three at-bats. (By the way, he had a similar impact with the Dodgers, totaling only seven at-bats with them.) And his usage in his three-and-a-half years with the major league club was relatively sparse. He totaled just 541 AB in his tenure. But it sure seemed more significant than that for anyone who lived through the 2011 season. That was the year Joe Mauer, with his career .323 batting average, was laid up for long spans with bi-lateral leg weakness. Butera ended up with the lion’s share of Mauer’s at-bats, posting a .167 batting average, even as the organization raved about his defense. It’s possible Butera's fans overrated that aspect of his game, while it’s also possible that Butera's critics underrated it, preferring to concentrate on his .181 career batting average. But both camps were encouraged by the return the Twins got from the Dodgers in the trade. The 19-year-old Sulbaran finished the year with a 2.96 ERA in Low A and 101K in 120 IP. He’s not a top prospect, but he’s the type to keep an eye on, as we wait to see if he can continue to develop as he matures. However, the excitement about this trade was mostly driven by the perception that the Twins were turning the page on an unhealthy infatuation with a player with limited upside. In a year with a quiet trade deadline, the organization seemed to recognize the right way to go and took a small step in that direction. Regardless of the return, that ended up being a big story in Twins Territory. Click here to view the article

This season was supposed to answer some questions about the makeup of the next winning Minnesota Twins team. It has largely failed to do so. But there is still some time and some September callups which might provide some clues as to the proper moves to make this offseason. Download attachment: Diamond.jpg The Starting Rotation (recall Scott Diamond) I just deleted an introductory paragraph with a lot of stats because it showed you something you already know: the Twins starting rotation is very bad. It was very bad last year, too. And with no immediate help on the horizon, the question is whether the Twins can somehow avoid “very bad” again next year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ideally, the answer would involve giving time to younger pitchers with limited experience and some upside, like Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Vance Worley and Kyle Gibson. However, Hendriks is here and Worley and Gibson are likely done for the year. That leaves Diamond, who has posted a 1.91 ERA since his demotion. In an ideal world, he would replace Mike Pelfrey, who would be traded for a Buterrific prospect from a contending team. Otherwise, shouldn’t Pelfrey have an innings limit after coming back from Tommy John? Isn’t he nearing it? Please? (Don’t get me started on giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal. No. Don’t. I’m not kidding. Be still.) The Bullpen (recall Michael Tonkin) The Twins one area of strength is the bullpen, so recalling Tonkin isn’t absolutely necessary. Tonkin was hit pretty hard on Sunday, and has already passed his career high for games this season. It would be understandable if he was just shut him down when Rochester’s season ends, especially if they rely on him down the stretch. But one way the Twins could continue to build for the future would be to trade some relievers. The Twins already look like they have four impact relievers – Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Caleb Thielbar and Casey Fien. Seeing Tonkin in the majors could make them more comfortable shopping one of these guys, though trading relievers in the offseason (when there are so many free agent arms available) doesn’t seem especially profitable. Catcher (recall Josmil Pinto) This is maybe the least likely callup, but there is a good reason to consider it. Just like re-signing Justin Morneau adds to the glut of corner fielding types, so does Ryan Doumit’s guaranteed deal next year. The Twins have any number of players that could use at-bats from the DH or right field spots, which makes Doumit’s primary value that of a catcher who can step in 70 games per year without embarrassing himself defensively. In some ways, Josmil Pinto looks like a similar player. He has shown he can hit at each level but, like Doumit, his defense is questionable. Playing him (and Chris Herrmann) in September might give a hint as to how aggressively the Twins could shop Doumit, who isn’t particularly valuable, but can fill a valuable niche for some teams. It would also give the Twins some sense of their backup options if Mauer’s concussion doesn’t clear up immediately (and maybe give Mauer some extra rest). Center Field (recall Darin Mastroianni) We all wish Aaron Hicks was ready for the majors. Indeed, we all hoped he was. He wasn’t, and after some initial struggles in Rochester and then some injuries, he’s far from having mastered AAA. In fact, there is less evidence that Hicks belongs in the majors on Opening Day than there was at this time last year. So the Twins need to figure out what their center field options are. Playing Mastroiann and Clete Thomas as a platoon in September might hint as to whether the Twins need to spackle over that centerfield spot until Hicks is ready. (So might calling up Antoan Richardson and his.393 OBP, but I’m not holding my breath.) First Base/DH/Right Field/Left Field (recall Chris Parmelee) I’m also not holding my breath for this move, either. Three of these four spots are regularly tied up by veterans – Doumit, Morneau and Josh Willingham - and the leftover spot needs to be dedicated to Oswaldo Arcia as often as possible. That has left Chris Colabello on the bench a little too often - check that - a LOT too often considering he seems to be behind Wilkin Ramirrez and Chris Herrmann on the depth chart. Don’t get me wrong – Ramirez and Herrmann both should be evaluated as bench players, but I’d much rather evaluate next year’s possible first baseman. I can understand keeping Parmelee in Rochester. He is hitting just .223, and that isn’t the front office’s fault. But 2012's version of Chris Colabello who tore up the Eastern League had "Parmelee" stitched on his back and he’s four years younger and while he didn’t break through in his 242 at-bats this year, he didn’t crash and burn either. A September Parmelee/Colabello platoon makes sense as an experiment at any of three roster spots – first base, right field or DH – and its not like all the high-end talent in this lineup should prove an insurmountable obstacle. Shortstop (recall Eduardo Escobar) Instead, I suspect I’m going to see this. I’ll admit a bias against Escobar: he’s never hit (even in the minors), his defense looked downright crummy with the Twins and he’s the “return” we got for Francisco Liriano. On the other hand, I have become irrationally attached to Pedro Florimon; he shines defensively, teased a little with some early hitting and the Twins stole him as a waiver wire pickup. If you think that last point doesn’t really matter, then you don’t know me. But Florimon is now just 27 points of the 600 OPS I feared he would ultimately have. Escobar has been hitting in Rochester - .287/.364/.419. More encouraging is that the 24-year-old (2 years younger than Florimon) has 14 BB and 29 strikeouts, which is a bit better than the nearly 1:4 ratio he had in AAA prior to this season. Finally, Escobar’s defensive reputation is much better than he demonstrated in his fairly short time with the Twins. It makes sense to see if Escobar can reverse first impressions this fall. The problem is that if he succeeds, the Twins are right where they were to start the season – without any real answer at shortstop. But truthfully, that can be said for any number of positions. The Twins have more questions than answers. Perhaps September and it’s callups will provides some clues. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: radio_microphone.jpg Aaron and John podcast about the Minnesota Twins signing Kevin Correia for $10 million, Jared Burton's contract extension, how the podcast will cope with John halfway across the world, why Aaron wants to get punched in the face every day, Doug Mientkiewicz's return to the organization, more changes in the team's newspaper coverage, Ben Revere's power plan, thinking Nick Punto wasn't so bad after all, and predictable rejection. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Matt Capps_600_321.jpg The Twins cleared eight players from their 40-man roster today in moves that affected suspects, prospects and Matt Capps. Because there were actually forty-three players on the 40-man roster, the moves left five spots open which will be filled throughout the offseason by free agents and other new players as well as Twins prospects that the organization wants to protect. Of the eight, the biggest name was former closer Capps, who was acquired by the Twins by trade in 2012 and has signed two consecutive contracts with the Twins. The Twins had a $6 million option (with a $250,000 buyout) on Capps for next year, but he had been hurt for most of this last season, hurting his chances of making anywhere near that money on the free agent market. Capps release does suggest that the Twins aren’t currently talking with him about re-signing him yet again. They have a similar option on pitcher Scott Baker which they are also assuredly going to decline, but they did not do so yesterday, likely because they are in talks to re-sign him according to Terry Ryan. Of the other seven players released only one did not ever make it to the majors – relief prospect Carlos Gutierrez, who was claimed by the Chicago Cubs. Gutierrez was a first-round pick by the Twins in 2008, but stalled out in AAA and eventually underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this July. It is not clear when he’ll be able to pitch again. The cuts included five other pitchers: Esmerling Vasquez is a somewhat wild reliever who was converted to a starter midway through the year in Rochester. The 28-year-old had good success in that role but struggled with his control in a September promotion to the Twins. PJ Walters was a 27-year-old starter had spent time with the Cardinals and Blue Jays prior to this season. He had success in his initial few outings, but eventually was sidelined with a shoulder injury. He also struggled this September when he returned. Kyle Waldrop is also a first round pick by the Twins, but underwent shoulder surgery in 2008. He has since become a pitcher who lives and dies by getting ground balls. He appeared in 17 games with the Twins this season, all of them in relief. Jeff Manship bounced back from a injury-plagued 2011 to stay mostly healthy this year, but the 2.91 ERA he posted in Rochester didn’t translate to the majors. His threw relief in 12 games, posting a 7.89 ERA. Finally, Luis Perdomo joined the Twins last offseason from the Padres organization. He’s traditionally struggled with his control, but made progress in Rochester only to see that progress disappear in the majors. He appeared in 15 games, pitching seventeen innings and walking 12. The only batter trimmed was outfielder Matt Carson, who had been a bit of a surprise when he was called up to the majors in late August. The 31-year-old outfielder received 66 at-bats, hitting .211 with just one extra-base hit. While these represent moves represent the lion’s share of 40-man roster moves, more can be expected. When Carl Pavano declares free agency within the first couple of days of the World Series, he will be dropped. Some arbitration decisions could lead to more openings. And if Scott Baker and the Twins fail to each an agreement, that would result in another opening. ~~~ If you’re interested in some of the Twins prospects that may fill some of these spots, Seth Stohs has an essay in the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that list the top candidates likely to be rewarded a spot. It is shipping now at a 30% discount until the end of the World Series. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Butera_orig.jpg Aaron and John talk about Drew Butera and evaluating catcher defense, Brian Duensing starting or relieving, pursuing Joe Saunders, drinking at noon, gay athletes, online dating, the vetting process for weirdos, talking prostitution during a haircut, interviewing Dave St. Peter, the arbitration process, preparing for TwinsFest, Nick Blackburn's wrist surgery, Elliott Gould's chest hair, grading the Twins' offseason, and playing hooky. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Podcast_Microphone_600_321.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Twins' lack of activity compared to last offseason, Denard Span and Josh Willingham trade scenarios, 40-man roster additions, prospect lists and the men who love them, Tsuyoshi Nishioka getting a raise back in Japan, Brett Myers rumors, avoiding Jeremy Guthrie, and the joys of Thanksgiving. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Molitor_Paul_Waving_US_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about Paul Molitor finally joining the Twins' coaching staff, Terry Ryan's interview with Twins Daily, missing the point on payroll, being invited to podcast at Cub Foods, starting a comedy club club, MLB vs. NFL television ratings, avoiding dancing at all costs, getting ready for Jason Isbell, swapping social lives, and how to deal with people not realizing you're joking with special guest Randball's Stu. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: jim%u00252Bjam%2Btater%2Bmashing.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Twins possibly bringing back Jim Thome, mailbag questions submitted by listeners, Baseball America's top 100 prospects, Jennifer Lawrence at the Oscars, snarking on Twitter, attendance and revenue, choosing sides on blondes vs. brunettes for charity, Kyle Gibson's velocity, fighting the entire world, and an unplanned cameo by a member of Aaron's family. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.Or click below to listen... [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] . Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 1377204439_30930d1225374216-f-s-22-asanti-rims-pirelli-tires-2300-picture-129.jpg Aaron and John talk about the free agent starters available to the Twins this offseason, why a Johan Santana reunion might make some sense, credit card roulette, Twitter for single people, trimming the 40-man roster further, Aaron's dream bar, reviewing the Jason Isbell concert, being in or out for Movember, how to ruin the rims on your car, mailbag, and the worst possible ending to a podcast ever. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: nishioka.jpg In this week's episode, John and Aaron sip some Nordeast and talk about Nishi's demotion, Baker's injury, some surprising Twins performances, and what it all means for the Twins Opening Day roster. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews). Click here to view the article

Download attachment: taxi-at-night-600x337.jpg Aaron and John talk about what the early free agent pitching signings mean for the Minnesota Twins, protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft, puking in cabs, weird Duke Welker moves, finding the Jewish guy anywhere, the Tigers trading away Prince Fielder, getting married for $100,000, the best minor league organization in baseball, bachelor parties, Kris Johnson's upside, and the beauty of constructive criticism. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. Download attachment: Bobby-Valentine-becomes-B-007.jpg And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano. Click here to view the article

Let’s be clear: ultimately, it’s about the wins. I get into at least a half dozen debates per month where I feel the need to remind people that all this fun baseball stuff we analyze – coaching tactics, offseason pickups, roster changes, revenue tendencies, trades, minor league development – are not goals in and of themselves. They are the means to an end. And that end is wins. That said, even if the Twins somehow win the AL Central, 2012 will answer several questions that will seriously impact the rest of the decade for Twins fans. Besides the wins, let’s take a look at five other developments worth paying attention to if you’re a Twins fan. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Can Sunk Money Stay Healthy? Download attachment: e94cbcd3-7eae-4e7a-b28f-6406d20a5a35_mn1.jpg Between Joe Mauer ($138M), Justin Morneau ($14M), Denard Span($11.25M) and Nick Blackburn($5.5M), the Twins will end 2012 with $168.75 million dollars of future money ties to four guys that have had trouble staying healthy. If they can stay healthy and productive, then the team is likely competitive. But if not, the Twins may well want to consider creative ways of getting those salaries off the books, including trades that involve eating some salary or early retirement packages. Can Minor League Talent Fill Some Gaps? Much of this question will play out on a much smaller (and rundown) ballpark that is 315 miles southeast. In Beloit, Wisconsin, the Twins lower-A affiliate, the Beloit Snappers, may be fielding the Twins infield of the future, featuring consensus Twins number one prospect and third baseman Miguel Sano, top draft pick and shortstop Levi Michael and top prospect (and possible second baseman?) Eddie Rosario. The Twins should anticipate a lot of turnover over the next few years and will be looking for breakthrough years from those guys or players even closer to the majors, like outfielders Joe Benson and Ben Revere or first baseman Chris Parmelee. Every name above either is perceived to have a limited ceiling or is still pretty far from contributing to the majors. A big step forward by several of them completely changes the perceived future of this team. But if you look again, all of those names have something else in common too…. Where Will The Pitchers Come From? In the same way that the Twins lost most of their outfield (Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer) this last year, they’ll likely lose most of their starting rotation before 2013’s Opening Day. Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis are all free agents. Scott Baker has a $9.5M option which will be prohibitive if he can’t stay healthy. Only Nick Blackburn is a sure thing to return. Ooh, goody. Unfortunately, the Twins top prospects in the minors aren’t pitchers. Liam Hendricks was called up last year and might be able to fill a middle-of-the-rotation role. It’s possible Kyle Gibson could recover sufficiently from Tommy John surgery to contribute as a major league starter next year. And then you get to guys whose futures are more borderline. There’s a reason the Twins were so aggressive in adding waiver pickups who were pitchers this offseason, and it will be interesting to see if they’re active at the trade deadline in picking up some young arms. Or there is another mid-summer event they might leverage…. Can the Twins Take Advantage of a Historical Draft? There ain’t a lot of bright spots to a 99-loss year, but the second overall draft pick is one of them. That’s also the advantage of losing several high-performing free agents like Cuddyer and Kubel – the team gets extra draft picks back as compensation. Between that top pick and the quantity of top-75 picks the Twins have (and the new capped compensation they will pay these youngsters) the Twins have never had a draft loaded with this much opportunity, and likely won’t again for decades. It is the perfect chance for the organization to gas up a car that feels like it is running on fumes. Can Twins Revenues Continue Rising? Speaking of running out of gas, that’s exactly what it felt like to the scalpers last year. The lull and disinterest that set in caused the front office to put spending back into a lower gear. A less dismal season might reaffirm fans faith in the team and reaffirm ownership’s faith in its fans. A renewed financial strength will help this team plug holes over the next couple of seasons, perhaps offsetting the other transitions that seem likely to take place. Click here to view the article

I don’t want to trade Justin Morneau. I don’t want to be rational about it. I want to clutch onto his comeback, keep it for my own, separate it and gaze at it among the dreck that this (and probably next) season has become. I’ve waited for this, I’ve craved it, and dammit, now I want it. Download attachment: www.toromagazine.com-justin_morneau_twins.jpg We’ll see if I feel the same way in a couple of months, because that’s when the decision will need to be made. For there to be a decision, Morneau needs stay healthy, and he needs show the same kind of production occasionally that he’s shown this week. Those are two huge “Ifs.” And even then, would there be a market for his $14 million/year contract that goes through 2013? I think so. A quick look at the standings and depth charts show a few teams that might be interested. Let’s count down the top four that jump out at me…. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] #4 – Pittsburgh Pirates – I doubt that the Pirates, who only have a $51 million payroll, would be willing to take on Morneau’s $14 million salary. I also don’t know if they view themselves as in contention, sporting a .500 record. But right now, they are just three games back of the Reds in a very weak NL Central. And their first base situation is a complete disaster: right-handed hitting Casey McGehee is hitting .184 and left-handed hitting Garret Jones is hitting .189 this May. If the Pirates find themselves close to contention at the end of July, their will be a lot of pressure to do something to boost their anemic offense, and it should start at first base. If the Twins can help the Pirates with the Morneau’s salary, one would think they could be compensated with some decent prospects. #3 - Cleveland Indians – This is a developing situation. First baseman Casey Kotchman has been ineffective. They also have Matt LaPorta, who is raking in AAA, but has a career line of .238/.304/.397 in the majors. Plus, at 27 years old, it’s not like he’s really a prospect any more – more like another option. Their big left-handed bat, Travis Hafner, is just coming back from an injury, and his health is always a question mark. And all bets are off if Carlos Santana has his own concussion problems. But with there are enough ingredients here to keep a watchful eye. Their first base situation is terrible. They’re contending. Hafner’s salary comes off the books next year. They showed last year they’ll be aggressive when it comes to trades. With the right mix, they could be very interested in acquiring, even overpaying, for Morneau. #2 Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t know if Toronto, who is a game over .500 but in fourth place in their division, really views themselves as being a contender. But if ever they were going to make a push, it might be a good idea to do so in a year that there are two wild card teams and the Red Sox are busy imploding. Their initial first base solution, Adam Lind, was demoted to AAA. Morneau’s left-handed bat would look pretty nice with the right-handed bats of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Oh, and I don’t know if you’ve heard this or not, but Morneau is from Canada. #1 Miami Marlins – Here’s the right mix of contention, spending and frustration. The Marlins trail the Nationals by just a couple of games. They have certainly signaled to the baseball world this offseason that they aren’t afraid to spend some money in their new ballpark. And 24-year-old prospect Logan Morrison is declining in his third major league year, hitting just .233 with a .323 slugging percentage. Finally, their lineup is desperately in need of a strong left-handed bat to balance the right-handed bats of Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton. The NL East looks like it’s going to be a bit of a mess all year, and winnable by any number of teams. (In fact, I could probably add a fifth team from that division – the Mets – to this list if I thought they were for real.) A pickup like Morneau is the kind of puzzle piece that GMs in that situation can get awfully excited about. Click here to view the article