John Bonnes

...and how will the Twins reach that mark? The 2nd wild card spot is held by the Rangers who are just five games over .500. So two questions: 1) How many wins will the second Wild Card team have after the season is over? a. 84-78 (six games over .500)? b. 85-77 (eight games over .500?) c. 86-76 (10)? d. 87-75 (12)? 2) Can the Twins go on a run to reach those marks? As of Monday the 24th, they're at 63-61 with 38 games left to play. So they would need to go.... a. 21-17 to get to 84 b. 22-16 to get to 85 c. 23-15 to get to 86 d. 24-14 to get to 87 wins. 3) How do they do it? Break it down however you like - series by series, homestand by roadtrip, home record vs road record, good team vs bad teams, etc. (Here'e their schedule, if you want....) http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015-schedule-scores.shtml I'll start: 1) 85 2) 22 wins. I need 22, Huh.... 1) 2 of 3 from the Rays 2) 4 of 6 at home vs HOU and CWS (including possibly sweeping the Sox) 3) 5 of 9 on road vs HOU/KC/CWS (including possibly sweeping the Sox) 4) 6-4 at home, including a split with the Angels 5) They take 5 of 7 on their road trip to CLE and DET. That already gets them to 85 wins.... 6) Celebrate at home vs the Royals, either by winning #86 or watching someone else lose.

And an (unlikely) win in either place would: a. be unbelievably delicious b. slay a dragon that could get this team over the hump against both for the next decade c. be the kind of win that revs us a playoff run. I'm actually really looking forward to this possibility.

You're right. And as we get closer to the end of the season, those gaps mean even a bit more. That, by the way, is when the percentages can really jump around a lot, too. And they should. But right now, there isn't much of a gap. Let's hope this 4.5 months of decent baseball ends up giving us a few weeks of some nightly drama and lost of mornings of overreaction.

Spycake, thanks for passing along that link to the FanGraphs. I love that they spell out the probabilities for different methods. It clarifies a lot about these. 1. Even with the Twins in 2nd place for the Wild Card right now, they have the worst chance to get it among the contenders using the Fangraphs Projection Mode. That's because it's based on the projections of the players that FanGraphs made (which had the Twins finishing with the worst record in the AL in the offseason). I don't know how often they updates those projections, but it looks like it makes a pretty big difference because... 2. The Twins odds go from 8.7% to 21.3% on FanGraphs "Season To Date Stats Mode." This uses this year's stats: 3. And those odds skyrocket up to 24.1% in "Coin Flip Mode" which might be the most useful, and is certainly the most transparent. The Twins odds rival that of the Rangers (25.3%) and are higher than the rest of the field. I prefer my own back-of-the-napkin mode: There are basically five teams bunched together for the last wild card spot. It sounds to me like they each have about a 20% chance of winning it.

Aaron and guest co-host Parker Hageman of Twins Daily talk about Byron Buxton joining Miguel Sano for a bunch of wins, the Twins trading for Neal Cotts, Glen Perkins coming back sooner than expected, Aaron Hicks getting hurt, whether there's any hope for Joe Mauer, and gross middle-aged white guys. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Aaron and guest co-host Parker Hageman of Twins Daily talk about Byron Buxton joining Miguel Sano for a bunch of wins, the Twins trading for Neal Cotts, Glen Perkins coming back sooner than expected, Aaron Hicks getting hurt, whether there's any hope for Joe Mauer, and gross middle-aged white guys. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/GATG_08232015_FINAL.mp3 View full article

Yes, that's what I was trying to suggest with the 3rd option - Robinson plus some at-bats from Rosario and Hicks. That's reasonable. It's also reasonable to suggest that's the worst of all worlds. You have Buxton rotting on the bench three days per week, you rob Hicks and Rosario of some at-bats and you disrupt the team to show in a guy that already has received attention far outweighing his performance. To me, this is a coin flip, something that someone closer to the team is in a better position to evaluate. But I can't get outrage that this is some obvious answer.

It seems like there's a lot of rhetoric out here, or a lot of people more interested in rhetoric than analysis. I find that a little disappointing. I'll posit this: this is the right move, obviously. I also think reasonable people can disagree whether it would have been the right move previously.To suggest incompetence one way or the other might be fun, but isn't true. I think reaonsable people can disagree on the following points: 1. Buxton is "ready". The trigger for Buxton being called up was that Hicks was hurt (albeit lightly). That is true again. That the Twins pushed him up from AA before and after just 10 games in AAA now AND that they seem very willing to DL Hicks with slight injuries, suggest they think Buxton is ready, but a) It's OK to think he didn't look all that ready last time when he was posting a 500 OPS. And B. "readiness" isn't the only reason someone is called up to the majors. And furthermore, c) the Twins might have thought he was ready before but then second-guessed themselves with some of his reactions to big league offspeed pitches. 2. I think it's OK to feel like Buxton could have been called up before now, but it's also OK to think he shouldn't have been. There are three roles to call him up, I think, and I think all three of them one could take one side or the other: a) He could replace ONLY Robinson. OK, but that means just 8 at-bats per week for the #1 prospect. Personally, I don't like that. But if you want him in that role, fine. I think it's a little bombastic to declare that if the Twins don't put their #1 prospect in that role, they're not trying. B. He could replace Hunter. Personally, I think this is unrealistic, not just for the Twins but for any MLB team. Hunter isn't just a random 40yo free agent. He's arguably the most popular Twin since Kirby, which puts him above a couple of MVPs, a multiple Cy Young Award winner and a Hall of Famer who also happens to the be the Twins manager this year. He also gets credit in the clubhouse for helping the team come together this year and the development of the youngsters, most of whom happen to be outfielders. Benching him could hurt as much as it helps, even if he continues to slump. I can see others' points on this - I see their logic and numbers - it just strikes me as so unrealistic to be as if it came from a fantasy baseball owner. c) He could take select at-bats from Hicks and Rosario. This makes the most sense to me, but that is a "feel" call. I think you have to know how the players are going to react and I don't. Finally, all of those scenarios assume that Buxton will be quite a bit more productive than he was in his limited callup. So I guess I don't see the arguments, but I fail to see the basis for outrage about the club's treatment of Buxton. I'll add this: I'm very much looking forward to seeing him and Sano in the lineup together for the first time tomorrow.

So to summarize: 1. He is the youngest players on the team, 2. playing a premium defensive position at a (reportedly) very high defensive level and 3. has a 636 OPS in a league with a 650 average OPS and.... 4. plate discipline that is trending in the right direction.... 5. at a position where the Twins seem to be short on solid options. That sounds legitimate to me. I don't know if we're talking someone who is going to make a national prospect list, and he might need to fend off the guy behind him, but that seems like someone who could have a major league career, even as a starter.

Molitor said his plan was to save May for later in the game because Perkins (and I suspect Jepsen & Fien) was unavailable. I actually thought, after I had hit publish, that it might have been cool to throw together a table showing who had pitched the last few days and how many pitches each had thrown so it was clearer what Molitor's strategy was. That would have been a good addition. I suppose in the classic "why save your best pitcher for the end" argument, Molitor could be criticized for that. I won't. I think he wanted May for the 9th and maybe some of the eighth and that was completely logical given that it was a close game and these games almost always need relief like that. Those innings are higher leverage than the 7th, because the Twins have fewer opportunities to come back after the 8th and none after the 9th. The other problem with inserting May there is that it requires him warming up for an inning he might never pitch and you can only do that so many times per game. If O'Rourke gets Gardner out, then May is warmed up and likely not coming into the 8th. And then he warms up again eighth when things looked dicey and might not be used. And then he warms up in the ninth. And let's not forget that he could've been warming up in the 6th for the same reasons. Sooner or later you just need to accept that you're going to need 3-5 arms to get through those innings one way or the other and it doesn't do you any good to get out of the 7th if you can't get out of the 9th. There is some game theory there that I don't think we've truly unpacked - kinda like keeping your best cards in your hands late when taking tricks in a card game. It makes sense to me.

The only things more embarrassing than the Minnesota Twins bullpen in Tuesday night’s 8-4 loss to the Yankees were the decisions that led to that bullpen. The bullpen only had two bad innings, an ugly disastrous detonation. But the fuse - the decisions that led to that explosion - show a pattern of both obliviousness and incorrect judgment that suggests that this problem isn’t going away soon. The Twins were forced to rely on Ryan O’Rourke and J.R. Graham in critical innings last night. O’Rourke is a rookie and lefty specialist. Graham is a Rule 5 draft pick who is primarily on the roster because if the Twins don’t keep him on the roster, they have to offer him back to the Braves. Those two were the bridge to the later innings because manager Paul Molitor was short-handed, partly because of the number of pitchers he had to use Monday night. But Monday’s game is only a fraction of the reason Molitor was short-handed. The bigger reason is that the bullpen has been both overused and short-handed since last Thursday when Twins management was confronted by Phil Hughes' back injury. To replace him for Friday’s start, they had a choice. Behind Door #1, they could call up JO Berrios, their top pitching prospect who was already scheduled to pitch Friday night in AAA-Rochester. Behind Door #2 was Trevor May, who has been their best reliever since the All-Star break. He had been a starting pitcher earlier this year and could throw 50 or so pitches, but then he would be unavailable to pitch in in the bullpen for several days. They chose Door #2. So May was not available the day before his start, when the Rangers scored the game-winning run off of Casey Fien in the eighth inning, an inning which May would have normally pitched. He was only able to pitch three innings in Friday’s game, meaning four other relievers had to throw 85 pitches to finish that game. And he was not available Saturday, Sunday or Monday either, forcing the Twins to use Kevin Jepsen and Glen Perkins in back-to-back-to-back games, which means they were not available on Tuesday night. So to review, the Twins decided to short their bullpen for five nights of their best reliever, so he could pitch the first three innings of one game during that stretch. They did this rather than call up a top-20 prospect with a 3.18 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched who also happened to have his start be that same night. A start, by the way, in which he threw a no-hitter for the first six innings. (And then got shelled in the seventh inning. But still.) The Twins just didn’t prioritize the bullpen. The questionable decisions didn’t end with the 8-4 loss, however. After the game, it was announced that Twins closer Glen Perkins would be flying back to the Twin Cities for an MRI and possibly a cortisone shot to relieve some neck pain with which he has been pitching. Perkins has turned from Mariano Rivera into Matt Capps since the All-Star break, leading to many wondering if he was healthy. Turns out, he wasn’t. And the Twins seemed to have known this. (And if they didn’t, they should have.) Which make the decision to only trade for one decent but not fantastic reliever at the deadline even more questionable. Jepsen has been a solid addition to the bullpen so far, but he’s never going to be a dominant closer. The reality is that it’s nearly impossible to paper over the rather large hole that removing Perkins would create, but if a team knows he’s hurt, isn’t getting at least a couple of arms – or one fairly dominant one – a priority? Again, the bullpen was not a priority. The questions go back further than July. Why was Tim Stauffer brought back from rehab so early (or at all)? Why was Aaron Thompson around into July when, over his last 23(!) games, he posted an ERA of 8.44 and struck out just three batters? Why haven’t the Twins been more aggressive in swapping out under-performing veterans like Brian Duensing, Brad Boyer and Casey Fien earlier this year? Why, if the bullpen is a priority, are they still trying to hide a Rule 5 draft pick out there? One answer to a lot of these questions could be that the Twins don’t have a lot of other options in the organization. But that just raises other questions which suggest that the dubious decisions go back further than just this year. For instance, the last several years, the Twins have loaded up on relievers in the draft, claiming they were going to develop their power arms into major league pitchers. At this point, the organization should be littered with them.So where are they? Even if the Twins didn’t focus on relievers in the draft, there is one other truth that might be the most damning: losing teams are always able to develop good bullpens. Losing teams have more flexibility on the 40-man roster to pick up intriguing arms. They have an earlier pick on the waiver wire. They have more opportunity to offer minor league free agents. Dozens of rules and market forces result in losing teams almost always having good bullpens. It’s the rest of the stuff – like scoring and starting pitching - that’s hard. Given four losing seasons, the Twins shouldn’t have been looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline. They should’ve been able to shop it. Tuesday night was just a couple of innings, but it’s a problem that has been building for years. Maybe even scarier, it’s a problem that management doesn’t seem to recognize it has, or doesn’t seem interested in addressing. This fuse has been burning for some time. Boom. Image courtesy of Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports View full article

Molitor is saying right now that Perkins is flying back tonight and will have the neck examined and an MRI. He referred to this being an ongoing issue, and that shots have provided some relief in the past. Sigh It's not clear from the discussion if Molitor meant it was an issue last year, or if it has been this year. But it sure seems like it was an issue for most of July, and that was BEFORE the trade deadline. How the hell can Terry Ryan and crew know that they could be losing or at least not being able to rely on the single most valuable guy in their troubled bullpen and not get more help. That is embarrassing. Or, at the very least, how is it not all hands on deck in the bullpen?

Shocker. Looking at his strikeout rates, immediately after the ASB, he just wasn't striking anyone out. Then, at the beginning of August, he seemed to have bounced back (and was getting Ks, too). And then the last couple of starts he hasn' struck out anyone again. Perhaps this is something that caused him some issue in late July. He thought he had beat, but now it's flaring up again, so they're trying to get the inflammation under control faster with the cortisone shot. Next we'll hear about Ervin Santana battling something.

August 5th marked the start of the Saints sixth of eight regular season home stands at CHS Field in 2015. The local nine once again took care of business on the field, sweeping both teams that visited St. Paul. And even though the Entertainment Team lost a key member and fan favorite, they were still able to deliver fun galore to everyone in attendance. Add all this together with what happened a couple days ago, and I'd say it's been a pretty good season so far. The Saints swept both the Lincoln Saltdogs and the Winnipeg Goldeyes during their last stand in Lowertown. In the process, they dropped their “magic number” to two. Awesome starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, and clutch hitting were the keys to victory for the home team. My MVP for the stand is Robert Coe and Angelo Songco. Once again, I couldn't narrow it down to just one player. After you look at these stats you'll know why. Robert Coe, 2W, 16IP, 4H, 1ER, 10K Angelo Songco, .388, 6R, 2 2B, 2HR, 9RBI, 4BB To say Coe's week was dominant may be an understatement. He went the distance in his first start allowing only one hit, a leadoff single in the eighth. Prior to that he had a perfect game until his only walk of the night in the seventh inning. His second start was almost as impressive when he went seven innings allowing three hits and his only run of the home stand. Ben Szeremeta writes about the Saints regularly at SaintsTrain.com On the other side of the diamond, Songco continues to punish the baseball whenever it's within his reach, scoring at least one run in five of the six games and racking up a couple of four-RBI nights. His two home runs during the stand tied him for the team lead with Vinny DiFazio at thirteen on the year. There're quite a few scary guys in the Saints right now, but I think Angelo would be atop my “stay the hell away from him list” if I had one. Another homestand, another record broken at CHS Field. On Monday, August 10th the Saints set a new season attendance mark at 299,093 fans. This record was one we all expected to fall; the new place holds a couple thousand more fans than Midway did. But breaking it in only 37 games? That's just crazy support for a great team and an outstanding, beautiful new ballpark. We should all be proud as heck to be part of such a great year at our new summer home. The Entertainment Team suffered a rare loss Saturday night as PA Announcer Halsey Lindquist worked his last game with the Saints. Halsey and his family are moving out of state to greener pastures. He will be missed for being a charismatic, crazy dancing, ball of "Fun is Good" energy. His chemistry with the staff, and especially with partner in crime Lee Adams, was brilliant. I think the tattoo he has on his arm sums up his attitude and how we will all remember him perfectly. It just says, "Be Happy". And that's what he always was and what he made all of us over the last couple seasons: happy. We're gonna miss you Halsey, good luck! After Monday night's game the team traveled to Sioux City for a three-game showdown between the top two clubs in the league. The Saints and Explorers split the first two games of the series. Then prior to even playing Thursday night's game…Ladies and Gentlemen, you’re 2015 American Association North Division Champion, St. Paul Saints. It has a nice ring to it doesn't it? On August 13th the boys clinched the crown when Winnipeg lost a matinee game to Sioux Falls, mathematically eliminating the second place Goldeyes from contention. Following a small pregame celebration the boys continued on their road trip with one more game against the Explorers. The Saints unfortunately lost the last game 4-3 and the series 2-1, which ended their season-long series unbeaten streak. Next up the team traveled to Joplin for a three game set against the Blasters. After dropping the first game the Saints rebounded, winning the final two of the series. The team is now 19-1-2 in series this season and 61-19! The best team in the league returns home starting Tuesday, August 18th. The Sioux City Explorers (I think I smell revenge), and Sioux Falls Canaries both visit CHS Field for three games apiece. The road to the title has been a record-setting one for the Saints, filled with so many past marks blown away by this year’s team. But with one goal in mind all the other stuff doesn't seem to matter. This team has a desire to win for each other like I haven't seen in a long time. Combine that with a crazy amount of talent and, well, the sky's the limit. As they continue to show. Go Saints! TRAIN!!! Image courtesy of Szer Design View full article

I don't think you HAVE to trade anyone. We're seeing right now the value of depth in starting pitching. And would anyone be shocked if Duffey moved to the bullpen when Hughes gets back and kicks some butt out there for a bit? That could be valuable to have sitting in AAA, too. I don't think it's wise to look at ways to improve the club by looking at who on your team to shop around. Instead, you look at who you need to get. Then fill in the blanks when you move the guy that other teams covet. For instance, if Duffey and Milone look sharp the rest of the season, that makes it a lot easier to include Gibson or May in a trade if someone is sniffing around. You might not be moving the worst player, but you're likely to get a lot better player back that way.

I do think it's kind of cool that the Twins have a history of signing Saints players that are looking for a way back into the affiliated leagues. Thielbar, Hamburger and Boyer all spring to mind off the top of my head. I also think it's kind of cool that even for a player that never got to spend any time in the majors, he's still been able to play a game that he apparently loves and made a decent enough living to keep playing until he's 31 years old. And those memories include being a part of the Giants organization when they won a World Series and friends with several of the players in the majors right now. That's pretty cool.

Aaron and John talk about Phil Hughes getting hurt, Jose Berrios not being called up, Tyler Duffey's bounceback, being delayed by golf, sending your kids off to college, Torii Hunter getting old, Miguel vs. Miguel Sano, gambling problems, changing from a marathon to a sprint, strong-armed outfields, and celebrating the four-year anniversary of "Gleeman and The Geek." You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/GATG_08162015_FINAL.mp3 View full article

During the Winnipeg Goldeyes most recent trip to CHS Field I was lucky enough to sit down and chat with second baseman, Brad Boyer. If you’re thinking the name sounds familiar, it should. Brad played for the St. Paul Saints in 2013 before having his contract purchased by the Minnesota Twins three quarters of the way through the season and reporting to Double-A New Britain for the rest of the year. But, more on that part of the conversation in a bit. We also talked a little about growing up, college and getting drafted, and a glimpse into the future. It all started when Brad was around four years old and he saw his first wiffle ball bat. "With the bat it was something. I picked it up and it really drew my attention growing up. I've always loved the craft of hitting. I'm a lefty with an open stance so watching Chipper Jones and his sweet smooth swing on Sports Center, that's who I wanted to build my game after. The way he carried himself playing twenty years. As a grinder and a superstar." It also didn't hurt his love of baseball that his family had Dodger season tickets. "Watching Kurt Gibson hit that home run in '88 against the A's when I was a young kid - it really brought out the passion in me. It brought out the life in me." Was he a star athlete growing up? That may be putting it mildly. While in high school the scouts and attention were never far away from Brad for three of the major sports. "It was a hectic schedule for the family you know, we were traveling all over the state. Great moments though, great moments. I definitely didn't want to just focus on one. Three kept me active, kept the passion going in each sport." Brad played basketball for his school and also on an AAU team. "I was traveling down to Compton, playing against the best guys in the state of California." In football he was wide receiver and helped his team win the State Championship. "We won our CIF and got to play at Anaheim Stadium. Football was something that I was starting to get recruited by some college schools. But I took a look at the life expectancy and took baseball into my hands." Ben Szeremeta writes about the Saints regularly at SaintsTrain.com Playing baseball Brad had no problem getting scouts to look at him. But having the number one overall pick as a neighbor and teammate didn't hurt either. "Coming out of high school I was fortunate enough that Delmon Young was my neighbor back at home. We had a lot of scouting directors, scouts, college coaches, and recruiters at games since I was a sophomore in high school and he was a freshman. We were having thirty teams there with their general managers and recruiters." While in high school he also played in college and MLB scouting showcases. "I was able to go play in the Area Code games with Delmon, Ryan Braun, and some of my closest buddies that I had growing up. I was able to flourish during those my junior year in high school." With offers from multiple colleges around the country the University of Arizona topped his list. "Arizona clearly got my attention with coach Andy Lopez over there. I think being able to start as a freshman and have that opportunity is what made my decision." Because of his stellar college career at Arizona, including being named an All- American his freshman year. Brad was selected in the 14th round of the 2005 MLB amateur draft by Seattle. After not being able to come to terms with the Mariners, he returned for his senior year and also a second season playing for the Cotuit Kettleers of the Cape Cod League where he was named an All-Star in 2005. He was then drafted in the 13th round of the 2006 MLB amateur draft by the San Francisco Giants and his professional career began. "I had a great experience there. I played with [buster] Posey, [brandon] Crawford, Sergio Roma, Panda Pablo Sandova, [brandon] Belt. I played with a lot of great guys. It was great to be part of that system." Brad seemed to be on the fast track for a call-up until injury struck. "I had a little setback my year in Triple-A, a minor injury. I fractured part of my knee getting hit by a pitch. It kind of held things back. They won the World Series in 2010. It would have been great to be a part of that. But I'm really happy for all those guys." In 2011 Brad started his first of a three straight seasons playing Indy ball. After stints with Gary, Lancaster and Bridgeport he ended up with the St. Paul Saints in 2013. "Your biggest memory of anything is your comradery. It brought you out on the field with a smile. Being around Brandon Tripp, Anthony Claggett, Mark Hamburger, the list goes on about the characters. I had a great time with George [Tsamis] and Lamarr [Rogers], the staff, and everyone there." He also had fond memories of the organization and Midway. "Just the atmosphere there, you know. When you come up to the ballpark and you've got tailgaters for a seven game and its two o'clock in the afternoon. It shows you how they market the team, the passion of the fans. It's a great community. It's a family. Having a chance to be part of that, it's something that I'll always have etched in my memory." Then later in the season, the Twins among other teams were watching. "When Mark Hamburger was here he brought a lot of scouts. He was running his two seam at 92, and his four seam at 95, 96. You’re gonna catch eyes." With all the attention being paid to the team, Brad took advantage. "I was fortunate, I rode the wave that year and got hot at the right time. They had an injury go down and I was able to go over there and be a utility guy in Double-A for a couple seasons. I had Hamburger as my roommate and we had a blast." Unfortunately a hamstring injury at the end of the 2014 season ended Brad's time in the Twins organization. In 2015 Brad signed with the Winnipeg Goldeyes and still believes he has more baseball in front of him. "As long as you’re playing this game your goal is to be a big leaguer. It's always to be a big leaguer no matter what your age is. The moment right now is to help this club, the Goldeyes win. But I'd love to get a chance to get back into affiliated ball. I think I can still make an impact." Even through all the ups and downs of a baseball career Brad has kept the right attitude and drive to succeed in this game. I really hope he gets another shot. He's still one heck of a ball player. Image courtesy of Szer Design View full article

FWIW, I'm pretty disappointed that we aren't seeing Berrios this weekend. I'm also a little surprised. But if Santana is really hurt, maybe that will give JO his chance.

One of the more exciting aspects of this year’s trade deadline was the number of ace pitchers available. A bonanza like that comes around once every….what, 20 years? And yet the Twins’ starting rotation was so flush that they moved their most promising young starter to the bullpen. That was fun for, oh, 24 hours. One of the more exciting aspects of this year’s trade deadline was the number of ace pitchers available. A bonanza like that comes around once every….what, 20 years? And yet the Twins’ starting rotation was so flush that they moved their most promising young starter to the bullpen. That was fun for, oh, 24 hours. Two days later, starting pitcher Tommy Milone was on the DL. This week, Phil Hughes joined him. And there is at least one other Twins starting pitcher about whom we should be concerned.* *Yup, I’m talking about Ervin Santana, who has only made eight starts. And here are his strikeout numbers in those eight starts: 8K in 8 IP (9K/9) 5K in 4 IP (11.3K/9) 1K in 7.2 IP (1.2 K/9) 8K in 8 IP (9K/9) 3K in 5.2 IP (4.8K/9) 2K in 6 IP (3K/9) 1K in 2.1 IP (3.9K/9) 1K in 6 IP (1.5K/9) See how that strikeout rate drops off drastically after the fourth start? Most times I’ve seen that, the player, within a few weeks, takes time off with an injury. I have very little doubt that Santana is hurt. The alternate theory is that he is now off PEDs, but he isn’t putting up those totals early if that was the issue. And what is really worrisome is that his problem appears to be his control, more than his “stuff.” Control is where the elbow comes in…. So the Twins are using that depth to start papering over those issues – but their latest choice may have already cost them a game yesterday to the Rangers. Here’s the breakdown…. Hughes was due to start Friday’s game. Saturday’s game was open because none of the current starters would have had four days rest and Milone can’t come off the 15-day DL until Sunday, so he was due to start that game. To fill the open slot on Saturday, the Twins planned on Tyler Duffey, who Twins fans last saw a little over a week ago when he was getting shelled by the Blue Jays. Choosing Duffey makes some sense: 1) He’s already on the 40-man roster, because he was added for that last start. 2) He’s legit. He’s not necessarily a top of the rotation guy, but his numbers and rise through the organization demonstrate he’s on track for a middle/back end of the rotation major league career. 3) Don’t worry about him getting the crap kicked out of him by the Blue Jays in his first start. First, it was the Blue Jays, who are on fire. And second, it was his first MLB start. They don’t always go well, and it means nothing. Just ask Trevor May. And speaking of May…. He’s the choice for Friday’s start. Turning to him is good news in a way: it likely means the Twins think Hughes will be back after just 15 days. If they were more worried, they likely would have turned to JO Berrios, the top pitching prospect in the organization, who isn’t on the 40-man roster. Their hesitation to add Berrios to the 40-man roster for what will likely be only a start or two is frustrating for those of us eager to see him. And the Twins have already paid a price for their timidity. Choosing May meant he wasn’t available for Wednesday’s close game with the Rangers. May usually pitches the eighth inning, but this time it was Casey Fien, who let in the tie-breaking run in the Rangers 6-5 victory. The bad news is that the Twins are likely outgunned on the mound for each game in this series. The good news is that you’re going to get a taste of the Twins that could be the backbone of this rotation in 2017. This is a big series for the Twins – hell, every series is right now. It’s unfortunate they are trying to patch together a starting rotation as they try to chase wild card teams. But the patches they are using are a long way from the patches they have used in previous years. Remember Johan Pino and P.J. Walters? Like that indy band that you saw before they got big, this weekend provides a chance to say “I saw them back when….” View full article

Regarding the logjam 1) I don't really expect the Twins to do anything, in part because... 2) I don't really know if it's that wise. The biggest concern is whether Sano can play 3B. It seems odd that Aaron suggested this, because I think he's been one of the biggest skeptics on this point. And I wonder if the Twins, even if they were convinced he probably could play 3B, aren't wondering why the hell they would mess with a good thing, especially the way Sano has been hitting as DH. The other concern is that it's projecting a lot of guys to either take the next step or not regress. Mauer could continue his drop off. Kepler could need more time. Arcia could never take the step we hope to see and ultimately be a platoon only guy. Rosario and his K/BB rate could take Danny Santana's path. So I come back to the conclusion I came to on the podcast - you take a good offer if it comes along and addresses a bigger need. But I'm not trying to get rid of Plouffe. He's just one option.

Well, like Aaron and I, we're going to need to agree to disagree. I don't want Buxton on this roster as a fourth outfielder until he can't be a full time outfielder in the minors. It s a disservice to Buxton.