Jeremy Nygaard

As recently as a few month ago, many Twins and draft fans would have been shocked and ecstatic if told there was a possibility that either Brady Aiken, last year’s first overall pick, or Kolby Allard, the top prep pitcher in the class, would be available at pick #6. But both would be available? You’re nuts. Only you’re not crazy at all. That’s the ups-and-downs when it comes to pitching prospects.Who are these guys? The Saga of Brady Aiken is too long to spell out in these bios - and many of you know it already. Aiken attempted to kick off his 2015 season pitching for IMG Academy of March 19. Aiken, a lefty, was supposed to throw 40 pitches that day, facing a national team from Canada, in what was one of the most anticipated starts all spring. He threw 12. A week later, AIken announced online that he had undergone Tommy John surgery. Another lefty, Kolby Allard, was considered the top prep arm in the draft by many experts. A summer on the circuit demonstrating a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking ball will do that. Of course, this spring Allard was diagnosed with a “stress reaction” in his back and would miss up to two months. Well, those two months have passed and six-foot Allard still isn’t throwing off of a mound. Why the Twins would pick them Adding either AIken or Allard to an already-stacked farm system would almost be unfair. Aiken projects as a #1, a player similar to Cole Hamels. While some don’t project Allard to have that ceiling, he reminds others of a left-handed version of Zack Greinke. The Twins would be lucky to have a guy like that at the top of their rotation. In fact, the Twins seem to be the highest team with connections to Allard. If he proves healthy before the draft, it’s a marriage that will seemingly happen. So what’s the problem, right? Why the Twins will not pick them There are a few problems. First, let’s start with Aiken. As the Saga goes, Brady Aiken had an MRI that showed UCL “abnormalities” before he intended to sign with Houston. That’s where the clarity ends. Some have reported a shorter UCL, some have reported a narrow UCL. Nothing is clear except that it was “abnormal” and led the Astros to believe that his future health was more in question than most pitchers his age. In addition to that - after having the surgery - there are reports that won’t let go about his “abnormal” UCL. Basically, they think the long-term health of his left elbow jeopardizes his entire professional career. That could be enough of a question mark to have the Twins simply say, “No thanks.” The money would also be an issue. Would he sign for less than $4 million this year after walking away from $5 million less than a year ago? That’s a big question mark. And the fact that all indications point in the direction that teams haven’t received medicals on Aiken yet, you’re now dealing with a whole other set of issues. Issues that might, simply, just not be worth it. Kolby Allard is a different story. He’s not dealing with an elbow issue. Nobody is suggesting that his career may be in jeopardy. What we are dealing with, though, is an undersized 17-year-old who hasn’t been available to watch for the last three months. When he returns, how will his mechanics be? Once a pitcher starts throwing differently, it messes with your whole body. Just today, the Nationals placed Stephen Strasburg on the disabled list with neck tightness. The cause of this tightness? An ankle sprain that caused him - probably unknowingly - to make some mechanical adjustments that added stress to his neck and shoulder area. And what ends up feeling these adjustments in the end? Typically a small little ligament in the elbow… Now, obviously, that’s projecting the worst-case scenario. A scenario that doesn’t even need a lead-up. Any pitcher’s elbow can snap at any time. The question is for the Twins: Are you willing to invest big money - and likely your last high pick - in damaged goods? Click here to view the article

Can't speak for the Twins specifically, but I would think whoever drafts Jay will have this plan in mind. While he hasn't started, he threw many more innings than a typical closer.

That's basically the feeling I'm getting. I've also been told there isn't a guarantee he'd take "#6 money". The riskiness of that pick would be huge. We should find out more about his situation soon.

If you’re a casual follower of the draft, there is a pretty good chance that you’ve heard the big names, but the name Andrew Benintendi doesn’t ring a bell. Heck, some people that follow the draft pretty closely are only starting to learn about him. But it’s time to take note. This guy is for real.Who is this guy? The 5-10, 180-pound lefty/lefty Arkansas outfielder is an interesting story. He started 60 of the team’s 61 games last year and put up only OK stats for a college freshman. He was certainly on teams’ draft radars - he was drafted by the Reds out of high school in the 31st round - but so are thousands of other kids. Things started to change this spring when he got off to a blistering start and scouts realized that his early July birthday made him the rare draft-eligible true sophomore. They checked him out and even as recently as one month ago Benintendi still wasn’t knocking down draft doors. Could go in the 2nd round? Not exactly compelling for a team drafting at #6. But after that hot start, he has yet to slow down. Hitting only one home run all of last year, Benintendi is now tied for third in the nation with 18. His .391 batting average (14th), .492 on-base percentage (9th), .738 slugging percentage (3rd) all rank among the best in all of Division 1 baseball. And he happens to be getting it done in the best conference of them all (while striking out in only around 10% of his at-bats). He was recently named SEC’s Player of the Year. Why the Twins will pick him Benintendi checks almost all the boxes. Before this year, he was known for his plus athleticism, his ability to steal bases - on the clock he was scoring plus run-times - and for his ability to play a plus defense in center field. That alone isn’t going to get anyone drafted on the first day. This year he’s added serious strength (which is showing up as usable game-power) and Baseball America recently called him one of the best three “pure hitters” in college baseball. While his arm keeps him from being a true “five-tool” player, he is as close as you can come. During a recent conversation with Seth Stohs, the guru of all things Twins, he made the comment that Benintendi sounds “a lot like Byron Buxton”. It’s because he does and that type of ability gets you drafted really high. Why the Twins will not pick him The Rockies are rumored to be interested in Benintendi with the third overall choice. Obviously that would be a reason the for the Twins not to take him. The universal knocks on Benintendi are, quite literally, the only things he can’t control: He’s not the prototypical outfielder in that, he’s small. The other knock is that he doesn’t have a long track-record of success. After his ho-hum initial season at Arkansas, he didn’t play any summer ball. This success that he’s having is nearing 60 games, but for some teams that’s just not enough. The Twins currently have an abundance of outfield talent: Arcia, Rosario and Hicks are all on the big-league roster. Buxton, Kepler, Walker and Harrison are in Chattanooga. And that doesn’t include the guys further away (in A-ball or lower) or the fact that both Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano are going to, eventually, both need a spot in the lineup and a popular rumor is moving one of them to the already-crowded outfield. But Benintendi is special and he could very easily be the Best Player Available at the sixth pick. If he’s still available. Not bad for a guy who many said “Who?” about merely a few weeks ago. --- Check out the other profiles: The Big Three (Swanson, Rodgers, Tate) Walker Buehler Get all the info with the Draft Kickoff and Mock Click here to view the article

But you have to sign those picks for that money to count.

Jay is closing, but would start career in a rotation. He could help a MLB team in the pen soon. He's also been stretched out some, not used in a typical closing role.Houston loves Daz, but has a connection with Tucker toO. So who knows...

Jay is closing, but would start career in a rotation. He could help a MLB team in the pen soon. He's also been stretched out some, not used in a typical closing role.Houston loves Daz, but has a connection with Tucker toO. So who knows...

And while it seems like it could all be position players, I've been told all four teams above "want pitching".

I hear everything you're saying. And some would tell you that you're spot on. One thing I've been told: Bregman is legit MLB SS, who profiles as a 7-9 hitter. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Area scouts line them up, then supervisors line them up, then they all congregate with the his that have crosschecked. So it's hard to say how they'll shake out on the final board. Call it "educated speculation".

That will get a post of its own.

The pendulum seems to be swinging for everyone. It's just swinging down right now for Happ. But all it takes is one team...

We hope you have come back after having a refreshing Memorial Day. Because, to be honest, if you’re not properly hydrated these next couple of weeks, you’re not going to be able to handle all the draft material we have for you. Today marks the start of this extensive coverage of the Major League Baseball Draft (which is held June 8-10). We know you love it - the three days of the draft are three of busiest days of the year at Twins Daily. Try to break us. Seriously.The Twins will draft 6th overall (and you already know this, man!) which has a slot value of $3,889,500. Because of the signing of pitcher Ervin Santana, the Twins had to forfeit their second round pick. They were, however, awarded a pick in the Compensation B Round (73rd overall) that has a value of $839,700. They will then go on to make eight selections on Tuesday and finish out the draft on Wednesday by making thirty more picks. From now until the draft, Twins Daily will be your home for a ton of draft coverage. We'll profile several of the players who the Twins could potentially draft as well as posting Mock Drafts and much more. Of course, we'll continue to cover the Minnesota Twins and lead the market with the best minor league coverage of the organization, but these next two weeks will certainly have a strong draft focus. We will be on top of the draft during the three days of the event. Join in on the discussion by commenting in our articles as well as posting in the forums. We are also happy to announce that for the second straight year, Twins Daily will be hosting a draft-related show while the Twins pick. Last year, we did a Hangout during the first five picks, followed by a radio spot from 9-10 pm. We’re dropping that. On June 8 from 7-8 pm, John Bonnes will host a draft show on KFAN. I’ll be fighting the traffic to join him in studio and we’ll have Seth Stohs on the show as well. Be sure to put that on your calendar. At some point in late June, we'll also be putting together a PDF-only Draft Prospect Handbook. It's going to be sick. And if you're draft-crazy, you won't be able to live without it. (Ok, that's hyperbole; but it will be great.) All told, it's going to be more Twins-draft related information than you could shake a stick at. So without further adieu, grab a water bottle, pop some popcorn and enjoy Twins Daily’s first-round mock draft: 1) Arizona: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt 2) Houston: Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS 3) Colorado: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Florida HS 4) Texas: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara 5) Houston: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU If those five guys are off the board when the Twins draft, it will leave them with a difficult decision. At this point in time, there is no chance that Swanson drops and a very slim chance that Rodgers falls. Tate has a slightly better chance to drop, but it’s unlikely the first five picks are all hitters and Tate is still the best college pitcher. The Twins love Bregman and - again - at this point, would love to see him drop to them. The Twins like Cameron, but don’t have any desire to meet his asking price. And, lastly, despite only one of the top five picks above being pitchers, there is a strong feeling around the industry that they “all want pitching” which could muddy this up even more. In this scenario, I would expect the decision to come down to Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois and Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS. 6) Minnesota: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS 7) Boston: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt 8) Chicago (AL): Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois 9) Chicago (NL): Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas 10) Philadelphia: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt 11) Cincinnati: Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State 12) Miami: Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS 13) Tampa Bay: James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA 14) Atlanta: Tyler Stephenson, C, Atlanta HS 15) Milwaukee: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville 16) New York (AL): Garrett Whitley, OF, New York HS 17) Cleveland: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS 18) San Francisco: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS 19) Pittsburgh: Ashe Russell, RHP, Indiana HS 20) Oakland: Donnie Dewees, OF, North Florida 21) Kansas City: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy 22) Detroit: Donny Everett, RHP, Tennessee HS 23) St Louis: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona 24) Los Angeles (NL): Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia 25) Baltimore: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati 26) Los Angeles (AL): Phil Bickford, LHP, College of Southern Nevada So there you have it: Mock Draft v. 1. What do you think? If the Top 5 go like that, did the Twins do the right thing? Leave your thoughts below. And don't forget to check back frequently for new content. Click here to view the article

My mock will be up tonight. You'll see where I have Happ going.

The other side of the "under slot" coin is that us fans would expect them to go overslot later. They'll be competing with Arizona and Houston every round for the guys that are falling... and they'll be doing it with far less money. So if you're going to go "under slot", you need to have a plan in place to reallocate that money. If every team does it, there's a chance you end up not spending it all... and that would make the fans even more mad than just paying slot to every one. Obviously there are hundreds of players, and every team's plan has to be reactionary to the players that are on the board when they pick. Long story short, if the Twins do pick a year to go under slot and spend big later, this year isn't the year (except that it is the last Top 10 pick year - hopefully - and you need to start with money to save money).

Teams and players alike will be looking to cut deals to make sure they don't drop. I don't remember where I heard it, but the difference between the 5th pick and 22nd pick ability-wise isn't much, but if you take a lot less money at 5, you're still making more than if you drop. The motivation is there for both teams. Still believe Twins go BPA. Allard will be in the mix, if healthy. Happ probably not.

I don't think he was on a pitch count. There was a game a few weeks ago that Berrios threw like 110 pitches, but it was a low-stress game. I think some thinking has been shifted from number of throws to how stressful the throws are. If he's pitching and has a long inning, followed by the offense having a long inning, he's going to come out because that 89th pitch is going to be more stressful on his arm than the 110th pitch he threw in a game twi weeks ago. I don't know if that was the case last night, but it could have been something. That or getting him out cause it wasn't close.

Nope. There just aren't any stats.

Keeping up with the latest mock drafts has a similar feeling to walking into the local Culver’s and checking the Flavor of the Day. Is it one you like? No? Then check back tomorrow. It might not be the one you want, but it will almost certainly be different. That’s the feeling that I continue to get as I check out the latest forecasts from the “experts”. By no means is it a rip on them. The facts are clear: No one knows who is going where. In fact, the bombshell that Keith Law dropped recently - that the Diamondbacks have settled on their guy - is something I felt was vastly underreported. Though maybe it wasn’t underreported. He basically said, “The Diamondbacks know who they are taking” and then went on to speculate who it might be… but basically has no idea.Plotting out the ways the Twins could go at #6 would be a lot of speculation, though it isn’t because it’s impossible to tell who the Twins like. It’s impossible to have any idea who may or may not go in the five spots that precede the Twins making their selection. Because of that “murkiness”, it was hard to settle on guys to profile in this series. Because of the lack of consensus in the Top 10, it made it nearly impossible to settle on guys to profile in this series. So that forced us to get creative (in a way that didn’t involve a month of profiles for you to read). The first installment in our profile series will feature three guys: Three guys we don’t expect to make it out of the Top 5. But let’s also be honest: There is great mystery surrounding those Top 5 picks, so there’s always a chance something crazy happens. One of these guys could drop, sure… but I view the chance of any of these guys dropping at less than 10% Who are these guys? Dansby Swanson, a shortstop from Vanderbilt, has “do-it-all” ability. While he’s not going to be a 20-homer guy, he’ll give you everything else you want from your shortstop. Without that power, you can’t be a five-tool guy, but Swanson has that sixth tool: genius-level baseball IQ. I’m sure Paul Molitor dreams about getting guys like this, but he’ll have to keep dreaming: there’s literally zero chance that Swanson falls out of the Top 3, let alone the Top 5. Brendan Rodgers is a prep shortstop from Florida. He’s resided at the top of draft boards since last June. He was great last summer, but was less than great this spring. And then his team got bounced early. But being good and staying healthy was enough to keep him near the top of the board. Committed to Florida State, Rodgers has gotten bigger and stronger and won’t get near Tallahassee (to go to class anyway). If you’re a non-believer, you might say Rodgers lacks the athleticism to stick at shortstop. The thing of it is, even without playing a premium defensive position, Rodgers could be a Top 5 pick if he’s a third baseman because of his bat. The Astros, who pick twice before the Twins, are said to like others more than Rodgers. And they’re unlikely to pick two shortstops. That helps his chances to fall, but the Rockies and Rangers would be crazy to pass on such a talent. The lone member of this group that could fall (and I say “could” as still less than a 10% chance) is Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate, a right-handed pitcher. Tate gained notoriety by being the best arm in the bullpen for USA’s Collegiate National Team last summer. And now he’s starting for the Gauchos and showing the same stuff. His fastball has been up to 98 with arm-side run. His slider is high-80s and devastating. His other stuff is still “in progress”, but Neil Allen would love to teach him a change-up. If that happened, he’s a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, that is… if his arm can handle it. He’ll throw over 100 innings this year after throwing less than 50 combined his previous two seasons. I’ll tell you this, though, if Tate’s name hasn’t been announced by the time the Astros make their pick at five, the Twins should sprint that card to the podium and party in the draft room. Why the Twins would pick them? It’s clear that these are the best players in the draft and the Twins would be elated for any of them to fall into their laps. Why the Twins would not pick them? Well, the easy answer is because they wouldn’t be able to. The more complicated question, “Why would the Twins would pass on them?” is a bit more complicated. Since the draft rules changed, the top picks are getting $6 million or more. The exceptions are Carlos Correa (who cut a deal) and Jon Gray (who had just been flagged for a failed drug test). The consensus top guys, who these three are, always got their money. Mark Appel, who was expected to go number one before falling, didn’t get his money (that year) after failing to reach an agreement with the Pirates. So there is definitely risk when you draft a guy that falls. The difference, though, is that teams are better prepared to handle the ramifications of this new draft procedure now that they’ve gone through it three times; the Pirates weren’t prepared and had they been, they would have known they weren’t going to be able to sign Appel. While there aren’t many (any?) sure things in this draft, these three fall into the “best-bets” category and the Twins would be lucky to get any one of them. Unfortunately, that just doesn’t appear to be a likely scenario. Click here to view the article

In the Prospect Handbook, my starting pitching prospects (in order): Berrios, Stewart, Meyer, Thorpe, May, Duffey, Rogers, Gonsalves, Hu. May has since graduated. Thorpe is out for the year. Meyer has been moved out of the rotation: Berrios, Stewart, Duffey, Rogers, Gonsalves, Hu. All six of them have been, at a minimum, good. I'd say you could make the argument that any of them could be top 3. While I wouldn't encourage you to "scout stats", look at Duffey's: AA: 163.2 innings, 1.106 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9. AAA: 23.0 innings, 1.217 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. And (not that it means much) a combined record of 12-6. Besides Hu's spot-start in triple-A, here are their combined AA and AAA stats:

A full slate of minor games tonight featured arguably the three best starting pitching prospects in the system. Who are they and how did they do? The Miracle made a move today, placing Jason Kanzler on the disabled list. Kanzler was spiked while trying to steal second base on Friday night. If you follow Kanzler on Twitter, he posted a picture (which he later removed). It was a pretty nice cut that certainly needed stitches.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 1, Norfolk 2 Box Score The Red Wings fell to the Tides in a game that lasted less than two and half hours. And that brevity was thanks to a lack of offense from both lineups. Tyler Duffey made his 2015 AAA debut (and fourth career AAA start) on Saturday. His seven-inning effort, which included six strikeouts, six hits and two earned runs on 98 pitches (62 strikes) was eerily similar to his AAA debut last year: six innings, seven strikeouts, two runs on five hits, 96 pitches and 60 strikes. Of course, he took the loss today (and got credit for a win last year). Duffey took the rotation spot of Alex Meyer, who was shifted to the bullpen. The only bullpen work went to the rehabbing Casey Fien who pitched one inning. He faced four batters, retiring three and walking the other. Kennys Vargas doubled and had two hits. He was DHing for the Wings and had the team’s only “run production” with his one RBI. Eric Farris and Danny Ortiz also doubled. Rochester is clinging to a small lead over Pawtucket in the IL North. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 11, Mobile 3 Box Score This team. Wow. Just looking at Saturday’s lineup - with the exception of Heiker Meneses, Mike Gonzales and possibly Stuart Turner - you’re looking at a group of guys that could conceivably be the crux of the Twins lineup. Byron Buxton, who went 3-for-5 with his 11th triple and 13th stolen base and three runs scored, is the future in center field and leadoff hitter. Jorge Polanco might be the organization’s best shortstop right now. He scored three runs on three singles and a walk and is batting .309. He did commit his eighth error of the season. Miguel Sano drove in three runs and finished a home run short of the cycle. He’s up to .250 now. Travis Harrison, Max Kepler and Adam Brett Walker combined to go 5-for-15 with two doubles and four runs scored and batted in. Those are three corner bats that are taking off this year… in an organization that suddenly has tons of corner bats. And that’s not even all the prospects. Jose Berrios wasn’t great tonight, but he managed to survive six innings. He allowed two runs on a walk and six hits. He struck out five. Berrios was not his normal self, throwing only 55 strikes in 88 pitches. And while his inefficiency didn’t cost him runs, it did keep him from going deeper into the game. Jake Reed gave up an unearned run in two innings. He struck out four. Tim Shibuya finished it off with a scoreless ninth. The Lookouts improve to 27-16. MIRACLE MATTERS Ft. Myers 3, Brevard County 1 Box Score Lots of good news coming from Fort Myers on a Saturday night that ended with a Miracle victory. Kohl Stewart was making his third start post-injury and he didn’t appear to show any lasting effects. According to Brice Zimmerman, the Miracle’s announcer, Stewart was sitting in the 92-94 mph range with his fastball and was mixing in some sliders. While there is no official pitch count, he did complete seven innings, allowing only four hits and one run. He struck out five and picked up his first ever FSL win. Brandon Peterson picked up a hold with a scoreless eighth, but the fireworks started when J.T. Chargois came in to pitch a perfect ninth inning. He touched 99 multiple times on the gun and even flashed a 100 (though the official reading was only 99.9 mph). He struck out two and picked up his 4th save. While there is no indication that it’s going to happen, I would like to see Chargois in Chattanooga to see if he and Burdi could malfunction any radar guns. Offensively, there isn’t much to speak of. They did just enough to win. Bryan Haar had two hits and the only extra base hit (a double). He drove in two runs and scored once. Chad Christensen scored the other two runs. Ryan Walker got a hit in his high-A debut and Alex Swim got another hit - but only one - and dropped his batting average to .335. Fort Myers climbed to within one game of .500 (21-22). KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 6, Beloit 7 (10 innings) Box Score After battling back from a three-run deficit in the ninth inning, the Kernels were unable to complete their comeback, losing to Beloit in 10 innings. There was plenty of offense tonight; unfortunately, there was more offense from the home team at Pohlman Field than from the visitors. Only Max Murphy failed to record a hit, with Blake Schmit, Trey Vavra, Brett Doe and Pat Kelly all having two hits. Schmit hit his first low-A home run and also stole his first base. Schmit drove in two runs as did Zack Larson. Nick Gordon went 1-for-5 with two strikeouts and a walk. Keaton Steele made his first start in full-season ball and was bounced in the fifth inning. He allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks. Three fly balls left the park. He did strike out six and got eight ground ball outs, which is encouraging. Jose Velez gave up a home run and struck out four in 2.1 innings. Michael Cederoth, who ‘s been in the pen for the last week after making six starts to begin the season, took the loss. He gave up five hits and the winning run in the tenth. He struck out three in 2.1 innings. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Kohl Stewart Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Miguel Sano SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester at Norfolk (12:05 CST) – LHP Tommy Milone Cedar Rapids at Peoria (2:00 CST) – RHP Zach Tillery Chattanooga at Mobile (2:05 CST) – RHP Greg Peavey Ft. Myers vs Brevard County (3:05 CST) – RHP Aaron Slegers Feel free to leave any questions or comments below! Click here to view the article