Jeremy Nygaard

Regardless of what happens over the next 24 hours, this will be my last mock. Be sure to listen to me, the Twins Geek, John Bonnes, and Seth Stohs tomorrow on KFAN from 7-8 pm. Guaranteed to be some good draft talk. It’s the same old story: The Astros - who don’t even hold the #1 pick this year - hold the key to the draft. And there is a really good chance they walk away from it having totally redeemed themselves for last’s year mess. This much is clear: Nothing’s clear. The Diamondbacks are still weighing their options.But the Astros only have to come up with two initial plans. Piecing things together it sounds like it could come down to this: The first of their plans is to take Swanson. If they take Swanson, he will take a significant amount of their #2 slot to sign. Then they’ll go BPA at #5 and will be able to find someone falling at #37. You walk away from - probably - the better plan to get the best player in the draft. The second of their plans is to take Alex Bregman. Bregman could provide them with some savings and more flexibility going forward. That’s where they’ll be able to pull a repeat of their Draft Heist of 2012. Depending on what happens at #3 and #4, there is a very good chance that the two players they like the most, Daz Cameron and Carson Fulmer, are still available. And they might just be able to get them both. If Cameron goes at #3 or #4, which is real possibility at #4 anyway, the likelihood would be that the Astros go with Tucker and take a falling arm at #37 (Justin Hooper?) with money to spend there. If, however, both are available, the Astros take Fulmer (or another college pitcher) and wait. It’s a risk, sure, but not an unprecedented one: the Royals did it when they overdrafted Hunter Dozier to get Sean Manaea later. No way they get both otherwise. With every pick that Cameron doesn’t go - first the Twins, then the Red Sox - the likelihood that Cameron gets drafted goes down, because, of course, how do any of those teams pony up $5 million? Once Cameron makes it past the local Braves, it’s smooth sailing. (There may, however, be a few tense moments when the Royals, Dodgers and Yankees make their picks). Next thing you know, Astros are up getting Daz Cameron for $5 million at #37. Bregman. Fulmer. Cameron. Wow. How does the rest of the draft shake out? 1) Arizona: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt (no change) 2) Houston: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Previous: Daz Cameron) 3) Colorado: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Florida HS (no change) 4) Texas: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (no change) 5) Houston: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Previous: Bregman) 6) Minnesota: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS (no change) I have a hard time believing the Twins pass on either Bregman or Tate or Tucker. In the event that all three players are gone, Kolby Allard and, potentially, Tyler Jay rise to the top. 7) Boston: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas (Previous: Fulmer) 8) Chicago (AL): Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (no change) 9) Chicago (NL): Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State (previous: Benintendi) 10) Philadelphia: Tyler Stephenson, C, Atlanta HS (previous: Walker Buehler) This is a change I made later. Stephenson is a wild card, working out for many teams and literally could go #1 or go #14. 11) Cincinnati: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati (previous: Harris) 12) Miami: Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS (no change) 13) Tampa Bay: James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (no change) 14) Atlanta: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (previous: Stephenson) The Braves have a lot of picks and with that comes a lot of money. They also haven’t shied away from acquiring players - like Max Fried - who have been injured. This would be a great addition to the prospect stable. 15) Milwaukee: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (no change) 16) New York (AL): Garrett Whitley, OF, New York HS (no change) 17) Cleveland: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS (no change) 18) San Francisco: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS (no change) 19) Pittsburgh: Ashe Russell, RHP, Indiana HS (no change) 20) Oakland: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt (previous: Dewees) 21) Kansas City: Cornelius Randolph, SS, Georgia HS (previous: Aiken) 22) Detroit: Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia (previous: Donny Everett) 23) St Louis: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona (no change) 24) Los Angeles (NL): Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke (previous: Kirby) Both the Tigers and the Dodgers are teams that don’t seem to care about the cost of spending money. They could acquire talented but injured players who never would have made it to them otherwise. 25) Baltimore: Donnie Dewees, OF, North Florida (previous: Happ) 26) Los Angeles (AL): D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State (previous: Phil Bickford) 27) Colorado: Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy 28) Atlanta: Jalen Miller, SS, Georgia HS 29) Toronto: Donny Everett, RHP, Tennessee HS 30) New York (AL): Chris Betts, C, California HS 31) San Francisco: Nick Plummer, OF, Michigan HS 32) Pittsburgh: Jake Woodford, RHP, Florida HS 33) Kansas City: Phil Bickford, LHP, College of Southern Nevada Bickford should go higher, but tested positive for marijuana recently and will likely drop because of it. 34) Detroit: Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Ponoma 35) Los Angeles (NL): Justin Hooper, LHP, California HS 36) Baltimore: Alex Young, LHP, Texas Christian 37) Houston: Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS And there you have it - the Astros pull a major coup and leave with three of the top 10 talents in the draft. There's been a ton of other draft-related news on the site, so if you've missed any of it, catch up with these links: Swanson/Rodgers/Tate Walker Buehler Andrew Benintendi Kyle Funkhouser Carson Fulmer Tyler Jay Brady Aiken & Kolby Allard Kyle Tucker Jon Harris Alex Bregman Daz Cameron There is also one more set of profiles - The Local Crew - that is yet to come. Click here to view the article

You know what else appeals to me about Alex Meyer in the MLB? Neil Allen and Everyday Eddie.

You know when the Royals waited to see if Finnegan could go back-to-back nights? The ALDS. You know when the first time he went after one day off? His 3rd appearance in the MLB. I'm just saying... they're different cats, but you can still develop a guy after summoning him to the MLB.

You know how many times last year that I heard "next year's draft is going to be so much better than this one"? A lot. You know what those people are saying now? "Last year's draft was better than this one."

We don't know what he wants to do. The reference was in regards to the question mark next to Allard's name. Is his health enough of a risk to not draft him? TR said earlier in the week (or during the weekend) that it wouldn't scare him off (or something to that effect).

The Twins are high on Trahan - possibly higher than they are on Newman - but he'll be long gone by 73.

The Twins don't have that high of a grade on Newman. They view him as a mid-first rounder at his best, likely closer to the end of the 1st.

Good question. I've posted on Twitter... but it's been awhile. I'm assuming Swanson and Rodgers are #1 and #2, though it's irrelevant. The way I'd stack the board right now are Bregman, Tate, Allard, Tucker. I think, ideally, Cameron would be ahead of Tucker, but he drops because of his price tag. I also think Allard is a question mark because of his arm. Depends what the loudest voices in the room think. We know what TR thinks. At any rate, the Twins are going to get a guy they really like at #6.

Yep. All things considered, this would be the worst. The other part to consider, no one is guaranteed a job a month from now, let alone 12.

I've been waiting for him to take roster spot currently occupied by pitcher #13 (Stauffer) for a while now.

I guess my belief is that he's not going to get better in the role that he's in now. He'll strike out some guys, he'll walk some guys. His control isn't going to improve getting a couple of outs a week. But he can still be a weapon if used in the right situation.

With all the rainouts, there was a bevy of baseball being played on Wednesday night. Counting the DSL and the Twins doubleheader there were nine games played. How did they do? Before we spin around the farm, there were a few transactions to make mention of: Oswaldo Arcia was activated and optioned to Rochester. Michael Tonkin pitched with the Twins and will head back to Rochester. Dallas Gallant went to the Fort Myers DL and Corey Williams, who hasn’t pitched since 8/30/13, was activated.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 7, Lehigh Valley 4 (Game 1) Box Score Oswaldo Arcia got his first hit in AAA. (He’s now batting .067.) But it was a big hit, a two-out, two-run single in a four-inning third inning that helped propel Rochester to a win. Danny Ortiz and Argenis Diaz both also drove in two runs. Jason Wheeler was not great. He allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits in 3.2 innings. His ERA has jumped to 6.11. Luckily, the combination of Caleb Thielbar (four outs, one hit, one strikeout), Mark Hamburger (three outs, two hits, one strikeout) and A.J. Achter (three outs, one strikeout) pitched shutout ball and the Red Wings were able to get a win. Rochester 3, Lehigh Valley 2 (Game 2) Box Score Lester Oliveros certainly wasn’t as impressive in this start as he was in the last one but still helped get the job done. He allowed two runs in 3.2 innings. He was relieved by Alex Meyer, who knows how to fill up a box score. He walked two, hit one, allowed one hit and struck out five in 2.1 innings. Despite his inefficiency (56 pitches, 34 strikes), he picked up the win. (At this point, seriously, just put him in the big-league pen… he’s not a starter anymore, at least not this year. And he would be an interesting option to have at Molly’s disposal.) Achter, who earlier picked up his eighth save, pitched a scoreless ninth to earn his ninth save. Josmil Pinto hit his sixth home run. Oswaldo Arcia hit a double - but struck out twice. Kennys “Big Spoon” Vargas was officially 0-1, but walked twice and scored a run. The Red Wings are two games up on Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 3, Tennessee 6 Box Score Lookouts star pitcher Jose Berrios certainly didn’t look like his normal self, arguably pitching his worst game in recent memory. Berrios was sharp through two innings but struggled in the third allowing a two-run single and then a three-run home run to consecutive batters. To his credit, though, Berrios was able to come back and get through three more innings, mowing down the batters in order in both the fourth and sixth innings. All told, Berrios allowed five run (all earned) on six hits and three walks. He struck out seven. This is the second time in as many starts against Tennessee that Berrios has struggled. Luckily, Tennesse is a Cubs affiliate, so he should be able to avoid most of these hitters - for the most part - until they meet in the World Series. Having a start like this isn’t all bad. It helps remind the player that he still has things to work on. It also helps remind us fans that la máquina is, in fact, human. Nick Burdi allowed a run that can be blamed on his lack of control. He walked a batter, then had a wild pitch and that runner came around to score on a single. He struck out one. Burdi has improved after a very poor start, but there is still a lot left to be desired. Cole Johnson allowed a hit in a scoreless ninth. After putting up three second-inning runs, the Lookout bats went cold. Max Kepler continued swinging a hot bat, doubling in a run. Carlos Paulino drove in two with a single. Byron Buxton singled twice and stole his 16th base of the season. Miguel Sano missed the game after aggravating a finger injury in last night’s game. This current five-game tailspin has dropped the Lookouts to 29-22 and has seen their division lead shrink to only percentage points over Tennessee. MIRACLE MATTERS Ft. Myers 4, Charlotte 5 (10 innings) (Game 1) Box Score The Miracle got 11 hits in the opener of today’s doubleheader, but couldn’t manage to string together enough offense to defeat Charlotte, losing the extra-extra-innings game. The trio of catchers, Alex Swim, Mitch Garver and Michael Quesada, all had two-hit games. Niko Goodrum, Garver and Bryan Haar all had doubles. Ryan Eades allowed a lot of contact. He three runs on nine hits and two walks. He struck out one. Brandon Peterson struck out three, getting five outs without allowing a hit. Peterson dropped his ERA to 0.94. Matt Summers blew the save, and took the loss, allowing two runners to score in the bottom of the 10th. The Miracle had taken the lead in the top of the inning on Garver’s double, which scored Engelb Vielma. Ft. Myers 4, Charlotte 2 (Game 2) Box Score Alex Swim and Marcus Knecht each had three hits in a game where Fort Myers only scored in one inning, but was able to do it four times. Logan Wade, Zach Granite and Swim all provided run-producing singles and Jared Wilson, making his high-A debut, produced five innings of quality baseball to help get the Miracle a win. Wilson struck out five batters and walked one before giving way to Todd Van Steensel. Van Steensel struck out four in two innings to get the save. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 9, South Bend 5 Box Score Don’t look now, but this Cedar Rapids team is getting it done. Five straight wins and nine out of the last 10. And it’s an opening-day rotation that has lost three guys to Fort Myers and one guy to injury. One guy who has spent all year in this rotation is Felix Jorge. In 6.2 innings, Jorge allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits and two walks. He struck out four. While the line isn’t that impressive, it is the third time this season that he’s made it into the seventh inning. He fell one out short of completing seven for the second time of the year. Luke Bard replaced Jorge and earned the win. He gave up one run in 2.1 innings. By “earned” the win, though, I mean he was the pitcher of record when the Kernel bats went nuts. The six-run eighth saw seven consecutive batters reach and 11 bat total. The biggest hits came in the form of two-run doubles: One by Edgar Corcino and the other by Tanner English. Alex Real had three hits, including a double and two RBI. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Jared Wilson, Fort Myers Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Alex Swim, Fort Myers (combined to go 5-8 with three RBI) THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester vs Pawtucket (6:05 CST) – RHP Taylor Rogers Chattanooga at Tennessee (6:05 CST) – RHP Greg Peavey Ft. Myers vs Bradenton (6:05 CST) – RHP Kohl Stewart Cedar Rapids at South Bend (6:05 CST) – RHP Dereck Rodriguez Feel free to leave any questions or comments below! Click here to view the article

We've already profiled Tucker, Allard and Tate. Geez... Who are these "most likely to be drafted" that we have to do yet?

He's the only one that 100% projects as a starter.

Between drafting Kyle Waldrop in 2004 and Kohl Stewart in 2013, the Twins made 10 first-round selections. Of those 10, four were college pitchers. (The rest were prep position players, with the exception of Levi Michael.) But the Twins haven’t drafted a single college pitcher since Alex Wimmers way back in 2010. The Twins haven’t had a college-pitcher drought this long since they were drafting guys like Torii Hunter, Jason Varitek and David McCarthy. While this absence of drafting college pitchers may be a philosophical shift, its timing also coincides with the arrival of bad baseball from the home team at Target Field. Obviously there is a lapse in time between being drafted and helping out the parent club, but - for whatever reason - the Twins had used a pretty common theme to be competitive throughout the 2000s and then, seemingly, went away from that theme. Could this be the year that the Twins break the “college-pitcher” drought and go that route with the 6th overall pick?Who is this guy? A guy that could end the dry spell of college pitchers is Missouri State RHP Jon Harris. Harris, 6’ 4, 185 pounds, has jumped up draft boards due to a strong spring that saw him go 8-1, 1.85 while striking out 113 in 97.1 innings. Harris has shown well, armed with a fastball that sits in the 90-93 range and touches 95, a 12-to-6 curveball, a mid-80s slider and a change-up. All three secondary pitches have flashed as a plus pitch at some point during this season. Harris was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 33rd round out of high school, but decided to attend Missouri State instead and profiles as a mid-rotation starter. Unlike the other top collegiate pitchers, there is no doubt that Harris's future is in a rotation. Why the Twins will pick him The Twins are in a position to select the best player available - regardless of position - and Harris has a case to be that player. He was able to avoid serious injury in a season where many of the top draft-eligible players weren’t. (He did miss two starts with an ankle injury, but showed no ill-effects when he returned.) A quick glimpse at the Twins farm system probably shows a lesser need for a starting pitcher than it has in any of the last handful of seasons, but there is yet to be a team that has had too many quality arms. Harris wouldn’t be a quick-to-the-bigs-type player, but he could move through low- and high-A next season and be big-league ready by the middle of 2017, along with a slew of other potentially helpful arms. For a team that has had a history - though not a recent one - of drafting college pitchers, Harris is likely to be the best of the lot when the Twins step up to the podium. Why the Twins will not pick him Harris doesn’t have the pedigree that the last two college pitchers - Kyle Gibson and Wimmers - had coming out of school. Gibson was a rumored Top 5 pick before an arm injury sent him into a tailspin. Wimmers was the most-decorated Big Ten arm in recent memory who was supplied with a MLB-ready curveball. You see how quickly things can change. Harris has answered almost all the questions. There are two weaknesses to his game: He doesn’t have pinpoint accuracy. He walked 3.2 batters per nine innings this year. The other thing that causes some pause among evaluators is that he hasn’t been pitching against top-notch competition in the Missouri Valley Conference. Even in his start in the Regionals, he squared off against Canisius, who gave him little resistance through eight three-hit innings. Harris will get another opportunity to solidify his spot in the draft this weekend when Missouri State travels to Arkansas in the Super Regionals. Click here to view the article

Tate has started all year. Jay, while a closer, has thrown nearly 60 innings including an outing or two where he went five innings.

That's exactly my thought too, but to get those guys you have to budget for them. And that's not happening if you pay slot at #6. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Without looking at the numbers, I feel like there was swell in signings the last two years, the numbers will probably just shrink back down to where they had been (22-23) and we'll see less guys from the 35-40 rounds sign.

Catcher just isn't a position I'm thinking much about. There just isn't a lot of quality in this draft. Plus, while the Twins don't have a clear "future catcher", there are a lot of guys that could fill that void, from Turner to Garver to Swim to Navarreto to Silva... I'm not saying any ARE the answer, but that cupboard isn't as empty as a lot of people think.

Yep. You're right. The Twins liked Marshall a ton out of high school. In the days leading up to the draft, his high price tag become evident and he dropped (to the Astros in the 21st round). He was rumored to be one of the guys that might receive some of the Aiken savings. Anyway, he enrolled at LSU but transferred to Chipola JC, where he pitched this year. I hope he's in the mix with the Twins second and third picks.

I didn't figure out the composite rankings of the guys last year. And when you start looking at national rankings from 50-500, there is so much inconsistency. So, it depends on which list you look at. You might get a guy at 140 that was Top 100 in one ranking and missed the Top 500 in a different one.

It was nearly one year ago today that I correctly predicted that the Twins would draft Nick Gordon in the first round of the 2014 draft and Max Murphy in the ninth round. I also suggested that the Twins could look at converting “a gajillion college relievers.” While I was off by a dozen or two on that projection, it was a common theme on the second day of the draft. While I anticipated probably getting each one of my picks wrong, I feel pretty good about getting two right and having the theme correct. I feel so good, in fact, that I’m going to give it another shot today.To try to give this an as “realistic” feel as possible, I found every player’s composite ranking (the average of Perfect Game, Baseball America and MLB) and couldn’t take them unless they fell after or within 10% of the pick (with the exception of the first pick). For example, to be “eligible” for me to pick at 73, the composite ranking had to be lower than 65.7. To be drafted at 80, he had to be ranked 72 or lower. For the last three picks, I couldn’t choose a player who was ranked in the Top 200 on each of the three lists. Round 1 (Pick 6 - $3,889,500): RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara. Consider it wishful thinking. As much I like Alex Bregman (a ton), my hope is that Tate is available at six and that’s the route the Twins go. Should he not be available, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Kolby Allard are other names that are under consideration. Comp Round B (Pick 73 - $839,800): RHP Kyle Cody, Kentucky. At the beginning of the season, Cody looked like a first-rounder. Armed with a big body (6-7, 245) and a bigger fastball (high-90s), Cody has been very inconsistent and has regressed to the point that Kentucky was using him as a mid-week reliever. Cody had success in the Cape Cod League last summer and could continue to the Kentucky-to-Minnesota pipeline. Oh, and Cody also grew up exactly 100 miles to the east of Target Field in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. If a prep like RHP Dakota Chalmers falls to this point, he could be another guy the Twins zero in on. (Composite average: 69) Round 3 (Pick 80 - $754,000): 3B Trey Cabbage, Tennessee prep. Cabbage was mentioned by Darren Wolfson a couple weeks ago as someone the Twins could target with their second pick. He’ll come off the board here with their third pick. Cabbage is a Top 100 draft prospect with a pretty left-handed swing, projectable power and the potential to play third base. (Composite average: 93) Round 4 (Pick 110 - $517,800): LHP Jeff Degano, Indiana State. The Canadian-born Degano missed nearly two seasons with Tommy John surgery before becoming a dominant pitcher for the Sycamores. Degano throws a mid-90s fastball and backs it up with a high-70s slurve. If he can improve on a changeup - and with Neil Allen, I’d believe everyone can - the 6’4" southpaw has the stuff to be a professional starter. (Composite average: 105) Round 5 (Pick 140 - $387,600): LHP Logan Allen, IMG Academy. IMG Academy has much more well-known names on the current roster, but Allen is no slouch. A South Carolina commit, Allen transferred to IMG Academy after two years of high school and is a pretty advanced 18-year-old. If Allard is the Twins pick in the first round, don’t expect them to pop a second prep lefty so quickly. Mac Marshall could be another prep lefty on the team’s radar. (Composite average: 148) Round 6 (Pick 170 - $290,300): C Joey Bart, Georgia prep. The Twins usually draft at least one catcher in the Top 10 rounds. Bart is known more for his bat and could eventually move out from behind the plate. A more likely catcher selection may be Washington’s Austin Rei, who was drafted, but unsigned, by the Twins out of high school in the 37th round of the 2012 draft. Rei figures to go off the board much earlier. (Composite average: 172) Round 7 (Pick 200 - $217,500): RHP Jacob Cronenworth, Michigan. Cronenworth is playing wherever Michigan needs him. He’s been a starter, a closer and played around the infield. He’s never solely focused on being a pitcher, and could make huge improvements with that focus. Cronenworth has a background in hockey, so he’d fit right in. (Composite average: 186) Round 8 (Pick 230 - $175,400): RHP Josh Graham, Oregon. Graham doesn’t show up in any Top 200s (yet). He’s a converted catcher who throws gas. He’s from Oregon. The Twins had success with Jake Reed from Oregon. His last name is Graham. The Twins had success with J.R. And for icing of the cake: The Twins drafted Graham out of high school in 2012. He still considers himself a catcher, however. He even removed his cap while fielding a pop up earlier this season. He was pitching. Graham could certainly go higher and is the one on this list I’d peg the Twins most likely to take. Round 9 (Pick 260 -$163,800): RHP Kyle Davis, USC. Davis profiles best as a reliever, but has the pitches to give starting a chance. He pitched in both roles as a Trojan. Round 10 (Pick 290 - $153,100): OF Anderson Miller, Western Kentucky. Miller is an athletic player who has shown some pop (14 homers) in his bat. The makeup is good as well. So there you have it: a projection of what the Twins could do with their top 10 picks. How would you feel if it played out like this? Would you prefer seven college relievers instead? Click here to view the article