Jeremy Nygaard

If you follow me on Twitter or even if you’ve engaged me in conversation about bullpens, you know how deeply my hatred burns for modern-day bullpen usage. For example, the practice of saving your closer for a save opportunity that he’s never going to get because you ran out a middle-reliever against the opponent's 3-4-5 hitters. How about bringing in your second-best lefty reliever to face the opponent’s best left-handed hitter with two runners in scoring position in the seventh inning of a tied game? Or how about warming your closer up to save a ball game, but then you score a run in the top of the ninth and since it’s not a save opportunity anymore, you quickly warm up a lesser reliever for to close out the game. Dumb. Dumb. And more dumb.On Monday, FiveThiryEight.com’s Nate Silver introduced a new stat. He called it the Goose Egg. At its simplest, it applies a stat to getting out of high-leverage situations. I’m not going to get into the whole down and dirty of it. If you care to, you can read all about it here. What it boils down to is this (taken from the article): A relief pitcher records a goose egg for each inning in which: It’s the seventh inning or later;At the time the pitcher faces his first batter of the inning:His team leads by no more than two runs, orThe score is tied, orThe tying run is on base or at batNo runs (earned or unearned) are charged to the pitcher in the inning and no inherited runners score while the pitcher is in the game; andThe pitcher either:Records three outs (one inning pitched), orRecords at least one out, and the number of outs recorded plus the number of inherited runners totals at least three.My immediate thoughts go to one place: The Twins bullpen. The 2016 results are a little surprising. For this exercise, I chose to focus on three sets of data: The Goose Eggs, The Broken Eggs (think blown opportunities for the Goose Egg) and GWAR (which is WAR, for relievers, using the Goose Egg stat). What isn’t surprising is that Kintzler, who led the Twins with 17 saves, also had 17 Goose Eggs. He did this in 23 chances. His 74% success rate is very close to league average (75%). His GWAR (which is explained in the article) is .11, very close to replacement-level. Again, not a huge surprise. Ryan Pressly, on the other hand, was a giant surprise. He led the club with 19 Goose Eggs. He also led the club with 9 Broken Eggs (68%) and measured last in GWAR at -0.75. The best of the lot was Taylor Rogers, who was a perfect 13/13 in Goose Egg opportunities and paced the bullpen with a 1.83 GWAR. Michael Tonkin was also a surprise. He was successful in five of six opportunities and posted a positive GWAR (0.32). Trevor May, who probably wasn’t used in enough high-leverage situations, converted nine of 11 Goose Egg opportunities. His GWAR was .51. I also found Ryan O’Rourke to be surprising. He was perfect in four chances and had the second-highest GWAR on the team at 0.56. But that’s last year. Let’s look at 2017. The Twins have gotten a much better-than-expected first few weeks out of their pitching staff and that’s especially true of the bullpen. Kintzler leads the team with three Goose Eggs in three attempts. All of Rogers, Duffey and Matt Belisle are two-for-three. Rogers and Duffey were perfect until the seventh inning on Thursday. Trailing the pack, again, is Ryan Pressly, who had two opportunities for Goose Eggs, but has been done in by the long ball. The sample size, of course, is small. And the Fighting Mollies have seemingly tried to buck the traditional bullpen trend by using the reliever ho appears to have the best “stuff,” Ryan Pressly, at high-leverage times. At the end of the day, it’s a curious new stat to learn about and interesting to see if it’s embraced. Click here to view the article

Media guide still lists him at 5-8, 160. I'm sure that's why nearly everywhere undersizes him.

The Twins opened up their series with the defending American League champions, the Cleveland Indians, on Monday night. All of the affiliates, with the exception of Rochester, were also in action.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester - OFF DAY The Red Wings will kick off a three-game set at Gwinnett on Tuesday night. The starter has not yet been announced. It would appear to be David Hurlbut’s turn in the rotation, but the club could throw Jose Berrios out there on regular rest. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 0, Biloxi 5 (6 innings; rain-shortened) Box Score The clouds opened up and the Lookouts were saved from having to finish Monday’s game. Kohl Stewart gave up three runs (zero earned) in four innings. The unearned runs are somewhat misleading because he did walk four batters. He also threw two wild pitches. Throwing errors by shortstop Nick Gordon and second baseman Engelb Vielma did not help his cause. Randy Rosario gave up two runs on four hits in two innings. Each pitcher struck out a single batter. Nick Gordon picked up two hits to improve his average to .300. Ryan Walker and Jose Gonzalez each singled. The Lookouts drop to 5-6. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 2, Florida 1 Box Score Lachlan Wells threw a gem on Monday evening. The offense gave him just enough to win. And the bullpen held on for the save. Wells, who came into the game with a loss despite only allowing one earned run in his previous start, wasn’t going to pick up his second. He struck out eight and only allowed three hits. His ERA dropped to 0.64. Trey Vavra provided all the runs with one swing of the bat, drilling a two-run home run (his first homer) in the seventh inning. Daniel Kihle hit his third double of the season. Chris Paul and Nelson Molina singled. Michael Theofanopoulos picked up his first save of the season. He pitched two innings, striking out three and giving up a solo home run in the ninth inning. The Miracle improves to 4-8 on the season. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 8, Peoria 2 Box Score There was plenty of offense for the Kernels tonight, led by the two-home run game of centerfielder Aaron Whitefield. Coming straight from the GCL, where he hit .298 with two home runs and 31 stolen bases, Whitefield has flashed surprising power. On Monday night, Whitefield got four hits, including the two home runs and drove in three runs. He also stole a base, his second of the season. Lewin Diaz (first) and Jaylin Davis (second) contributed to the home run parade. Jermaine Palacios, who struggled last year, hit three singles and improved his batting average to .351. He also walked twice to improve his on-base percentage to .400. Mitch Kranson’s two hits drove his average up to .357. In the midst of all that offense, starting pitcher Clark Beeker won’t get mentioned enough. He went 7.2 innings, striking out nine. He gave up two runs on seven hits and a walk. Colton Davis struck out two on his way to securing the final four outs. The Kernels are now 6-5. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Lachlan Wells, Fort Myers Miracle Hitter of the Day – Aaron Whitefield, Cedar Rapids Kernels TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester at Gwinnett (6:05 CST) - TBA Chattanooga vs Biloxi (6:15 CST) - TBA Fort Myers vs Florida (5:35 CST) - RHP Dereck Rodriguez (0-1, 4.38 ERA) Cedar Rapids at Peoria (6:30 CST) - RHP Tyler Beardsley (1-0, 1.80 ERA) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Monday’s games. Click here to view the article

I don't know how much the Padres can really impact the Twins selection. Sure, they could get creative and have ~$8 million available to force the Twins and Reds hands... but that's a slippery slope for an agency to take, especially when that agency has had a good working relationship with the Twins. End of the day, the Twins have money. Greene wants it.

He throws both right now... but they kind of run into each other and get slurvy. His fastball is fast, but doesn't have a lot of movement right now either. He's a raw 17 year old that has a very, very high ceiling.

The Twins spent their off-day between Chicago and Detroit in preparation of their three-game series in Motown. And they didn’t want anything screwing up their hot start. The Tigers finished their series with visiting Boston and the Red Sox had several team employees and players suffering from the flu. The Twins, forced to stay in Chicago an extra night while Red Sox players remained in the city and their hotel, called the Tigers to get the visiting clubhouse fumigated. That’s all the Twins need after a quick start to their season… catching the Red Sox sick germs and losing players.To the minor-league front... We’re still waiting for additional details on second base prospect Luis Arraez. Arraez left Saturday’s game on a cart after an awkward tumble and was placed on the disabled list Monday. To take his place, the Miracle added outfield Casey Scoggins from extended spring training. In brighter news, pitching prospect Jose Berrios was named 2017’s first International League Pitcher of the Week. This comes on the heels of pitching six innings of shut out, seven-strikeout ball on Saturday. All of the affiliates were in action on Monday. RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 4, Buffalo 9 Box Score After both teams started their seasons with sweeps, one team was bound to fall from the ranks of the undefeated. That team fell behind early and couldn’t mount a comeback. Jason Wheeler, who had a great bounce-back year in 2016 that saw him win 11 games in a Red Wings uniform, was making his 2017 debut. After a first inning that saw Buffalo quickly go down in order, Wheeler ran into trouble. Despite only walking two and a half batters per nine over his 700+ inning minor-league career, Wheeler issued three free passes in the second inning alone. Combine that with a passed ball and two singles and Wheeler was fortunate to escape the inning with only three runners crossing home plate. He settled down - allowing only a solo home run in the fourth - but still only was able to make it through five innings (91 pitches) before being lifted. He struck out three. The bullpen didn’t fare any better. D.J. Baxendale allowed two runs on three hits while recording four outs. Buddy Boshers gave up three runs on four hits and a walk while also recording four outs. Alex Wimmers got the last out of the eighth inning on a strikeout, but not before letting two of his three inherited runners score on a single. The offense collected nine hits, led by Leo Reginatto, who finished a triple short of the cycle and hit his first career AAA home run. He drove in two. Kenny Vargas chipped in with two hits and ByungHo Park doubled in the ninth inning, but was lifted for a pinch-runner. Reports from the field were that he may have aggravated a hamstring. While it could be nothing, it at least bears watching. Rochester falls to 3-1. The two teams collide again on Tuesday afternoon. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 7, Mobile 6 Box Score The Lookouts fell behind 5-0 before putting together a four-run sixth inning to close the gap to 6-5. A two-run eighth inning completed the comeback victory. In the sixth inning, Edgar Corcino led off with a double. He waited there through two outs and a pitching change. Then his teammates got to work. Travis Harrison doubled to score Corcino. LaMonte Wade singled Harrison in. Jairo Rodriguez hit a double to plate Wade. Then Rodriguez scored on a Levi Michael single, who later stole a base. The winning inning came courtesy of another Wade single and then a Rodriguez single. A wild-pitch advanced both runners and Rodriguez, now in scoring position, was replaced by Tanner English. Nick Gordon drove them both in, but was thrown out at second base. Rodriguez ended up with three hits and in addition to those multi-hit players mentioned already, Engelb Vielma also had two hits, including a double and an RBI. Paul Clemens made a forgettable Twins-organization debut. In four innings, he gave up five runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk. Ryan Eades walked three and allowed a solo home run, but was bailed out by Mason Melotakis, who relieved Eades with the bases loaded, but got an infield fly pop out and fly out to end the inning. Melotakis picked up the win. Luke Bard earned the save, but made it interesting by allowing two hits in the ninth. Chattanooga escapes with the win and improves to 3-2. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 3, Tampa 4 (13 innings) Box Score The Miracle scored runs early and got a great performance from pitcher Randy LeBlanc… but ended up losing in a 13-inning game that lasted three and a half hours. LeBlanc struck out eight in seven scoreless innings. He allowed five hits. LeBlanc made 13 starts for the Miracle last year after dominating in Cedar Rapids (and also made one start for Chattanooga). Jonny Drozd allowed three runs in the eighth inning and took a blown save. Nick Anderson pitched two innings of scoreless ball before turning it over to Anthony McIver, who retired five before allowing the winning run. The whole lineup, with the exception of Sean Miller, got a hit or two. But of the 11 hits, only one, a Nelson Molina solo home run, went for extra bases. The team struggled to a 1-8 line with runners in scoring position. Alex Perez was 2-4 with two walks. Fort Myers also made plenty of mistakes: Zander Wiel committed two fielding errors at first base and Rafael Valera and Nelson Molina were both caught stealing. The Miracle drops to 1-4 on the season. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 0, Kane County 2 Box Score The Kernels ran into a Kane County club that had pitched shutouts in two of their last three games. They saw more of the same on Monday night. Cedar Rapids starter Clark Beeker did his best to keep the Kernels in the game, completing seven innings. He allowed two runs, including a solo home run, on eight hits and a walk. He struck out three. Hector Lujan gave up a walk in his inning of work. The offense just didn’t do enough to score runs. They did collect eight hits - all singles - but went 1-9 with runners in scoring position, struck out 12 times and had an Aaron Whitefield caught-stealing. These things proved problematic. Jermaine Palacios and Brandon Lopez both had two-hit games. The Kernels will look to knock the Cougars from perfection on Tuesday afternoon. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Randy LeBlanc, Fort Myers Miracle Hitter of the Day – Leo Reginatto, Rochester Red Wings TUESDAY'S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester at Buffalo (12:05 CST) - RHP Aaron Slegers (0-0, 0.00 ERA) Fort Myers @ Tampa (6:00 CST) - LHP Lachlan Wells (0-0, 0.00 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Kane County (NOON CST) - RHP Tyler Beardsley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Monday’s games. Click here to view the article

Friday night didn't only signify the first time a Twins club started a season 4-0 since 1987. It also signified the first time CBO Derek Falvey got to see high school prep pitching phenom Hunter Greene in person. Falvey was one of five people representing the Twins organization, which also included scouting director Sean Johnson.According to various reports, Greene sat at 98-99 with his fastball. Some radar guns even flashed triple digits. Throughout his 91-pitch, 13-strikeout, complete-game outing, his fastball never dipped below 95. Greene also flashed a devastating slider. You can see Green throw one pitch, with the Twins crew in the background below: Greene has become the darling of the draft. He's helped the poor by doing a sock drive, collecting socks in exchange for autographed cards. (And I missed the deadline... but he still sent the cards.) He's gone through hard family times as his younger sister dealt with leukemia. He's shown his personality through his social media. On the field, he's proven to be, perhaps, the most unique prep right-handed pitcher in recent memory (or ever?) and strives to make history as the first ever high school right handed pitcher to go first overall. He's also a pretty darned good shortstop. In a draft that doesn't include any top notch college stars, Greene continues to shine brightly and is becoming a cult hero in Twins Territory. --- Check back for updates. Click here to view the article

Fair point. But 3/8 of the players mentioned are Rangers/Indians... which probably doesn't deviate far from the Falvey/Levine mode of thinking. I would imagine that the way Cleveland is and the way the Twins are under Falvey will be very, very similar.

When the Twins put Chris Gimenez in at third base and moved Miguel Sano over to first base on Wednesday afternoon, I jokingly said on Twitter that you can’t start thinking about 2019 (aka Year 1 A.7) too early. No, I don’t really know that the Twins will move Sano over to first base as soon as Joe Mauer vacates the position. But it did get me thinking about two years from now.Before I look ahead two years, though, I looked back at the Opening Day lineup from 2015, you know, the year the Twins won 83 and narrowly missed the playoffs. Beyond the top three (Danny Santana, SS; Joe Mauer, 1B and Brian Dozier, 2B), none of the other six remain with the Twins. (Kennys Vargas did DH and is with Rochester.) Will there be that much turnover again in two years? Jason Castro will enter the final year of his three-year pact. Assuming the Twins compete at some point between now and then, Castro will be the Opening Day catcher in 2019. The Twins hold an option on Ervin Santana for 2019 and Phil Hughes will be in the last year of his very questionably-signed extension. The only other player under contract for the season is ByungHo Park. As previously mentioned, Mauer and his $23 million will come off the books. At that point, you’d be hard-pressed to find a spot for Mauer. He’d have to re-sign for an amount significantly less than he currently plays for and agree to a huge reduction in playing time. Sure, I could find him some time to DH against right-handers… but it would be hard to forecast anything but retirement for number seven. Home run bangin’ Brian Dozier will earn $6 million this year and $9 million next year before getting the opportunity to test free agency for the first time. I’m sure the club will explore extending Dozier before then, but trading Dozier for important pieces (plural, yes) remains the most likely outcome. The outfield trio is going to remain affordable for the next few years. Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton will likely be entering arbitration in advance of the 2019 season. Max Kepler isn’t scheduled to hit arbitration until the following season, 2020. As teams start to realize the value of locking up pre-arbitration players, look for the Twins to do their homework on Buxton and Kepler. Rosario, in my opinion, remains a player that Twins could look to move, maximizing his value at some point in the next couple of years. Moving into the infield, Miguel Sano is on the same schedule as Buxton and Rosario. Though his defensive home will be questioned, his true home is in the middle of the lineup. Park, under contract, and Vargas, with less than two years of service, could still fit into the equation. The middle infield is more interesting. Assuming Dozier moves on, does Jorge Polanco, who still has five years of team control left, slide to second? (This year will help answer that question.) Can Nick Gordon stick at shortstop? Does Engelb Vielma hit enough to be the everyday shortstop? Do the Twins pursue keeping Eduardo Escobar, who will also be a first-time free agent? The rotation could still include Santana and Hughes. The combination of youngsters Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Kohl Stewart, among others, will compete for rotation spots too. That makes no mention of Kyle Gibson, who will be arbitration-eligible for the last time in 2019. Then there’s the bullpen… Fortunately, there are more potential relievers than ever before. Without diving into the dozens of names, there is both power and depth from both sides of the pitching rubber. No matter how you look at it, it’s hard to imagine a lineup in early April of 2019 that doesn’t resemble this week’s club. That is very encouraging… and jibes well with the baseball operations crew looking at the team they inherited and not making significant changes. Of course, you can’t just wait for the future to show up. There’s always things you can do to improve the club… and over the course of the season we’ll look at some specific moves the Twins can make before 2019 to ensure meaningful October baseball. Click here to view the article

Gonsalves has the largest hands I've ever seen. So my amateur assessment is that his pinky just doesn't have anywhere to go.

You don't convince one of the Top 5 to take #5 money. For example, Carlos Correa wasn't a Top 5 lock, so the Astros saved money on him by taking him first... and Correa was going to take less cause he could have dropped to 5 or 6 or lower. (I think the Twins would have taken him had Buxton gone first.) Last year, you could negotiate with the guy you wanted first and say, "Listen, if you don't take $7.6m from us, you better hope you go second... or you might not make $6." The Twins could get someone to agree to $7m this year, but that's only banking $400,000, not $1,400,000.

2017 slots: 1 $7,400,000 Twins 2 $6,850,000 Reds 3 $6,350,000 Padres 4 $5,860,000 Rays 5 $5,435,000 Braves 6 $5,050,000 Athletics 2016 slots: 1. Phillies $9,015,000 2. Reds $7,762,900 3. Braves $6,510,800 4. Rockies $5,258,700 5. Brewers $4,382,200 6. Athletics $4,069,200 The talent gap was always much more narrow than the money gap. Now it might be the other way around. You could lose a few million dollars if you dropped from 2 to 5 before. Now it's half that.

Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops? Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents? The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again.

That's different than, "Should Greene go 1-1?" Greene's becoming a cult hero in the Twin Cities.

Before those things. But the scouting staff as a whole hasn't really changed. Three new guys replaced two guys that were let go.

He's still maturing physically. He's still developing as a starter after relieving his first season. I'd say he's got a ton of upside. When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall.

Two of the top 5? No. The difference between the first and second pick is only $550k, so there isn't this great incentive to take less money at #1 when you can get nearly the same amount at #2. End of the day, though, they could maybe save $400k. They do have some flexibility with having #35 and #37. Maybe they have a guy they really like that agrees to take $1m at #35 and then they have $2m they can spend at #37 (but that's only equal to the #31 pick). So long story longer, they do have some financial flexibility, but not enough to get two top 5 talents. They'd be better off banking it all until Round 11 and taking a Round 3-4 high school talent again like they did last year in Benninghoff.

That's the seven million dollar question. Short answer, though... yeah, they could pass on him. There are other players that have really high upsides. ...But his is the highest. As Thrylos has said before, Greene's secondary pitches aren't great. And honestly, that's what it's going to come down to. He's getting great coaching. If he's not able to show improvement over the course of this season, I think his upside gets knocked down a few levels where Lewis and Wright/Faedo become equally intriguing options. I'm pulling for Greene. And I try not to let that opinion jade things, so if it appears I'm anti-Greene at times, I'm really not. I'm just trying to present things fairly. Not that it matters, the Twins don't pay me for my opinion. Or care.

Baseball didn't get to where it is today by people thinking in the box. With that being said, you'll never unlock a guy's true potential if you let him split his focus. Best-case scenario for that to happen is if he doesn't pan out as a top pitcher and can become a reliever/infielder, which is far from the best-case scenario. It's not a thought that's never come up though, the Padres are planning to use Christian Bethancourt as a reliever, backup catcher and reserve outfielder. It would be extremely difficult to do something like that with a starting pitcher while trying to take care of his arm in between starts.