Jeremy Nygaard

They probably do have the best ability to manipulate the draft... but it pales in comparison to past years. Having the #1 pick is much less of an advantage pool-wise.

So what I'm hearing is more something like this: 2018: $2 million 2019: $6 million (would be first arbitration year) 2020: $9 million 2021: $12 million 2022: $18 million (would be first free agent year) 2023: $21 million or $3 million buyout 2024: $24 million or $3 million buyout Max deal: Seven years, $92 million. If $100m is the magic number it could be... Signing bonus: $2 million 2018: $2 million 2019: $6.5 million (would be first arbitration year) 2020: $10 million 2021: $13.5 million 2022: $19 million (would be first free agent year) 2023: $22 million or $3 million buyout 2024: $25 million or $3 million buyout Again, adding a few more years on is great from a team perspective... but one of the perks of a player signing a deal is letting him free agency before he's well past his prime. You could do this: 2018: $2 million 2019: $6.5 million (would be first arbitration year) 2020: $10 million 2021: $13.5 million 2022: $19 million (would be first free agent year) 2023: $22 million or $3 million buyout 2024: $25 million or $3 million buyout 2025: $30 million (Sano can opt out after 2025 season) 2026: $35 million 2027: $40 million (mutual option) 2028: $40 million (mutual option) $245m over 11 years.

You used WAR to compare the players. But now it's meaningless? I just asked you to include Sano's (which was 0.8 last year but already better this year). I think everybody is undervaluing Yelich and the deal he signed was ultra team-friendly.

Update on draft things, but didn't want to make a new article. Thad Levine watched Texas Prep P Shane Baz on Tuesday. My assumption was that Baz is someone being considered for the second round. Not so fast, I guess. The Twins are casting a very, very wide net (much bigger than two players) and the narrowing in won't happen for a bit. Things like bonus demands aren't even being exchanged yet... right now the focus is on seeing all the guys. So when we read things like the Twins are considering Pavin Smith and Royce Lewis and Kyle Wright, etc... there's actually many more players... like Shane Baz. As Levine said last night, there isn't a clear-cut guy. So the team is out searching for the one they like best.

Stanton's contract is a great comp. The six years of his his deal compared to the six years of Miggy's: $37.517 million. I'm totally cool with backing that up with deals in the $20-$25 range... for as many years as he want. But the selling point for him is that he's still a free agent at 30. (Just like Stanton can opt out of his deal at 30.) Those later years are what inflates the contracts. Not years 1-6.

Compare those WARs to Miggy. How has power done on the free agent market? Harper and Sano are NOT close comparisons.

$39.5 million guarantee. Similar structure. Works for me.

Sure, add a few more. But would a player rather have that or guaranteed free agency at 30. How about Kepler and this deal... would you? How about Buxton?

Now that we’ve got to see Miguel Sano play third base for the better part of a month, it’s probably fair to say that he’s going to man the hot corner for the foreseeable future (or at least until Mauer moves on). The pop-ups that plagued him last year haven’t been an issue (yet) and the barehanded plays that he seems to make on a consistent basis are starting to prove the doubters wrong. And he’s taking walks and hitting bombs again.Pre-arbitration extensions have been pretty popular around the league. There have been eight such deals in baseball since the end of the winter meetings. Though the Twins, who have a whole nucleus of players that fit in that pre-arb category, were not one of those teams. That should change with Sano. Currently, Sano is a 1+ player, which means that he’ll be a pre-arbitration (near minimum) player again in 2018. He’ll enter his first of three arbitration years in 2019 and will first be eligible to be a free agent after the 2021 season. Looking specifically at deals of players with 1+ year of experience, we need to look no further to find one than the most recent extension that was signed: The Cardinals and outfielder Stephen Piscotty. The two parties entered into an agreement that will earn Piscotty $1 million in each of the 2017 and 2018 seasons. He will earn $7 million in each of his first two scheduled arbitration years and $7.25 in what would be his final arbitration year and his first free agent season. The Cardinals hold an option at $15 million for the 2023 season with a $1 million buyout. Piscotty also got a $2 million signing bonus and is three years older than Sano. The formatting of this deal - the large jump into arbitration and the small jump into free agency - is definitely unique. He also was given a $2 million signing bonus. His guarantee is $32.5 million over the six years that begin next season. We can look further though to see, perhaps, a better comparison: Christian Yelich of the Marlins. Yelich was 24 when he signed his deal, a year older than Sano is currently. Yelich also holds an advantage in bWAR, both career-wise and in head-to-head seasons. Any potential deal should probably follow the Yelich framework. Scheduled to receive $570,000 and $1 million in his final two pre-arb years, Yelich will get a big bump during his arbitration years, earning $3.5 million, $7 million and $9.75 million. His first two free agent years are bought out at $12 million and $14 million. Then there is a team option for $15 million with a $1.25 million buyout. All told, Yelich is guaranteed $49 million from his 2+ year through two years of free agency plus an option (seven years). Using those two as models, what would an offer to Sano potentially look like? It would be fair to assume that the bump he’ll receive in his final pre-arb year (‘18) will be $1 million. Piscotty’s deal gives a significant bump in the first year of arbitration, but not the first year of free agency, which makes Yelich’s a more believable model. Looking at the Twins pre-arb extensions, they’ve used even jumps from arbitration years to the next. (Span was $1.75m and Dozier was $3m.) Using $3 million as a good starting point with $3.5 million increases, Sano would make $3 million, $6.5 million and $10 million. The part that I will always feel the Twins screwed up with Dozier’s deal was not buying out any free agent years. The Twins can’t make that mistake with Sano. Though the Marlins got two years of Yelich plus an option, I’m not going to suggest the Twins do the same with Sano. Mostly because I don’t think his reps would go for it. But my contention has always been that the tradeoff of cost-certainty for the team and guaranteed money for a young player isn’t fair. There has to be an added benefit for the team. And that comes in the form of a free agent year and a team option. The $12 million that Yelich is getting for his first free agent year is fair and the $15 million option that the teams are getting on both players are getting is also fair. As an added bonus for Sano, the team’s buyout will be $2.5 million, increasing the guarantee. Here’s the breakdown: 2018: $1 million 2019: $3 million (would be first arbitration year) 2020: $6.5 million 2021: $10 million 2022: $12 million (would be first free agent year) 2023: $15 million or $2.5 million buyout Six years and $35 million. Would you? Click here to view the article

I don't know. I wondered the same thing... but didn't think any explanation would leave me scratching my head less. Looking at their schedule, it appears the game against Crespi is on Thursday now. I wonder if it was just a scheduling thing. Mapping out bullpens and such and if they were already thinking about shutting him down, moving a game one day would alter Greene's schedule. I don't know, just speculating. Not sure how long ago the game was moved either.

Brent Rooker? Yeah. The Twins drafted him last year.

His injury is definitely going to impact the top half of the first round (as will Seth Romero's suspension from Houston). I'd entertain drafting him and paying him extra. The Twins drafted Benninghoff last year and immediately had him undergo TJ, so they're not afraid of a little risk.

This isn't true. Last year, without a huge pool, the Twins went two rounds overslot with two players (Balazovic and Schick) and also were able to bank enough to sign an 11th rounder for 3rd round money. Only four teams spent $600k or more on any pick after the Top 10 rounds. The Twins were one of them. They're willing to play the game. They just haven't played it like the Astros have.

I also confirmed last night that Greene is done pitching. He says his coach "pulled the plug." And no, it's not different than guys skipping other things leading up to the draft. And it's definitely a more positive trend (for the player) than having him throw hundreds of pitches on short rest like a college pitcher would do.

I've been thinking about this... if there is a time you can bomb, it's right away. You can't bomb when you're on the hot seat. Obviously 1-1 is different. Point is... DJ didn't get reassigned for anything he did recently. He got reassigned because of things that didn't work out that happened 5, 6, 7 years ago. Same with TR. I'm back firmly in the camp that you shoot for the stars here and the biggest star is Greene.

Baseball America's Hudson Belinsky reporting that Greene's coach informed the team that he will not be pitching for the rest of the year. Working to independently confirm. EDIT: The original plan was for Greene to pitch against Crespi on Friday, but the game was cancelled because of Crespi's prom. As of that time, there wasn't further word on if he'd pitch again.

The pools have really changed since then. Those days are over. Last year, the #1 team banks a million and still have $200k more to offer than #2. This year, the difference between the two is only $550k. The difference between #3 and #1 ($1.1m) is tiny compared to last year's difference (~$2.5m). Teams could definitely manipulate the draft if they want... but the pressure comes from the teams behind. Teams that have the most money will still have the power, but it's certainly minimized.

He got beat up by Duke last weekend. I'm sure he'll throw this weekend.

$750k is essentially turning your tenth round pick into a second rounder. So you're crazy to think it doesn't make a difference. You draft a senior in the ninth and 10th round and now you've banked enough to draft another difference-maker ($1m) in Round 11.

The draft is quickly approaching (but still seems like a lifetime away). Twins Daily's draft coverage is being mapped out. But as of today, there are two major players as candidates for the first overall pick in June's draft and both of those players have made headlines.HUNTER GREENE Let's talk about everyone's favorite prospect first. On Wednesday the newest edition of Sports Illustrated will hit the shelves. On the cover... you guessed it. Greene. Next to his picture are phrases like: "Baseball's LeBron or the New Babe?" and proclaiming Greene as the star "baseball needs." Read the article but be warned, you're going to like Greene even more. Greene has also been the focus of rumors that he's trying to force his way down the draft to his hometown Padres at #3. Those rumors have been floating around in the Twitter-sphere for a bit. In a recent conversation with Greene, he addressed the internet issues, simply saying they're "not true." And to be honest. I don't care if they are or if they aren't. We all have jobs and those jobs are - more than likely - in places that we choose to work. He's grown up on the west coast, worked his tail off on the west coast, and if his preference is to be baseball's next star on the west coast, would you blame him? With all that being said, as of today, I think these internet rumors have been way overblown. On another note, Greene's next start hasn't been scheduled. And no one knows if it will happen again this season or not. I'm still leaning that it will. BRENDAN MCKAY So if Greene isn't the guy, it's gotta be the best pitcher in college baseball right? Or will it be the best power hitter in college baseball? It could be both. On Tuesday, McKay, who one scout told me might be the greatest college baseball player of all time, hit four home runs. The feeling for quite some time is that McKay is a pitcher who could debut in the major leagues in 2018 and fit in the top half of the rotation for years to come. But how do you ignore the bat? With a bat as good as his is, do you dare to get creative and continue to let him hit? You can't completely dismiss that possibility. But how realistic that is remains to be seen. I think the temptation then would be to think that either of Greene or McKay could be two-way guys. But McKay has the leg up there because it would be easier to DH his bat (or play it at first base) than to have Greene play shortstop in between starts. The likely reality, though, is that you can't do that. With either. When you draft either of these guys, you're drafting a pitcher. I was asked today what I would do. If things are equal, I'd take Greene. But what if, through negotiations, you realize you could draft McKay and sign him for $500k less than what Greene wants? What if that number is $750k? What if there is a third player that you like almost as much that will sign for $1.5 million less? This is the question the Twins will have to ask themselves. And answer. Click here to view the article

Torn ACL.

Stewart is junk. Jay is hurt. Gonsalves is hurt. Our pets' heads are falling off! Hopefully these kinks will work themselves out and the summer months will be better.

The Twins traveled south to Texas to start a three-game series with the Rangers. Congrats to Jermaine Palacios who was named Midwest League Player of the Week. This came on the heels of hitting .516 with lots of extra-base hits and flashes of home run power. The Twins made a transaction, purchasing the contract of P Nick Tepesch, optioning P Buddy Boshers and placing P Ryan O’Rourke on the 60-day disabled list.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester - OFF DAY The Red Wings open a set at home against Gwinnett on Tuesday. Rochester is 8-7. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 4, Tennessee 7 (7 innings; Game 1) Box Score Houston, we have a problem. It’s Kohl Stewart. Stewart dropped to 0-4 and his ERA inflated to 6.46. More alarming than those numbers, though, is what is causing them to pile up: Walks (four tonight) and wild pitches (also four tonight!). Stewart made it through only three innings and struck out five (which is an improvement) but struggled to find the strike zone. Of his 79 pitches, only 43 were strikes. He gave up five hits and four runs. At some point - probably soon - the organization needs to consider the DL with “left knee tendinitis” or heading back to Fort Myers (probably to pitch in extended spring games). Because, right now, this Chattanooga thing isn’t working for the young quarterback. Randy Rosario gave up a run on three hits in three innings. Luke Bard gave up two runs on one hit and two walks. He struck out two. Both relievers were touched up for longballs. Nick Gordon paced the offense with two hits, including a double. Jonathan Rodriguez also doubled and drove in two runs. Even though seven regulars got hits, it was much too little, too late. Chattanooga 5, Tennessee 0 (7 innings; Game 2) Box Score Matt Tracy struck out five in six shutout innings. He allowed three hits and three walks. Mason Melotakis preserved the shutout with a scoreless inning of his own. There wasn’t a lot of offense in this game either, but well-timed hits opened up the scoring. Dan Gamache had a two-run single and Ryan Walker followed with a three-run single. A five-run fourth inning was all the Lookouts needed. Gamache was the only multi-hit player in the lineup. LaMonte Wade stole his second base of the season. The Lookouts are 9-8. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers - OFF DAY Fort Myers will be back in action on Tuesday. They are 8-10 on the season. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 0, Burlington 8 Box Score Not pretty in Cedar Rapids on Monday. Tyler Beardsley made the start and was knocked out without recording an out in the sixth inning. He was charged with seven runs (six earned) on nine hits. He struck out three and gave up a solo home run. Quin Grogan got four outs in his Kernels debut. Though he was not charged with giving up any runs, he allowed four hits and a walk and both runners he inherited scored. Tom Hackimer recorded two outs before turning the game over to Logan Lombada. He gave up a run and struck out three. Colton Davis finished the game with two strikeouts in a scoreless inning. Palacios and Jaylin Davis both led off innings with triples, but failed to cross the plate. Aaron Whitefield recorded the third hit, but was picked off first base. Travis Blankenhorn singled. Blankenhorn (third base), Caleb Hamilton (catcher) and Jaylin Davis (right field) all committed errors. Cedar Rapids drops to 9-9. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Matt Tracy, Chattanooga Lookouts Hitter of the Day – Ryan Walker, Chattanooga Lookouts TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester vs Gwinnett (6:05 CST) - RHP Jose Berrios (1-0, 1.42 ERA) Chattanooga vs Tennessee (Game 1) (4:15 CST) - RHP Fernando Romero Chattanooga vs Tennessee (Game 2) - LHP Nik Turley Fort Myers vs Bradenton (5:35 CST) - RHP Cody Stashak (0-2, 3.38 ERA) Cedar Rapids vs Burlington (6:35 CST) - RHP Eduardo Del Rosario (1-1, 4.26 ERA) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Monday’s games. Click here to view the article