RealTwinsFan357

Let's face it, there isn't much left to talk about in terms of the Twins and their 2014 season. We know the story all too well at this point. Worst starting pitcher ERA in all of baseball, last place in the AL Central, can never seem to get a hit with runners on base, etc. This tired story has caused me, like many of you, to care way more about the future than the present. In this post, I am attempting to answer a simple question: Which players look OK to stick with in 2015 and which players could use a replacement (or at least some competition)? I went on Fangraphs and looked at all the Twins hitters who have compiled 100 or more PA this year. This accounts for 18 players (4 of which are not with the Twins in any capacity and 1 of which is currently in the minor leagues). I looked at wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, since I think those three stats do the best job of describing someone's total value. Since WAR is not a rate stat, I calculated what each players WAR would be in 500 plate appearances. This probably isn't the best measurement, but it will serve its purpose. I have ranked the players based on wOBA, since I feel that statistic is the best description of a player's value. I have included each player's wOBA, wRC+, and WAR/500PA in parentheses. I've also supplied their ages, when they are eligible for arbitration (if applicable), and when they are eligible for free agency (as per Baseball-Reference). Danny Santana(.364/134/3.1) Age 23(2017/2020) Kennys Vargas(.356/128/2.0) Age 24(2017/2020) Jordan Schafer(.354/127/6.2) Age 28(Current/2017) Brian Dozier(.342/119/3.5) Age 27(2016/2019) Josmil Pinto(.341/118/1.2) Age 25(2017/2020) Josh Willingham(.328/109/1.4) Age 35(FA 2015) Trevor Plouffe(.328/108/3.0) Age 28(Current/2018) Sam Fuld(.327/108/3.9) Age 32(Current/2017) Kurt Suzuki(.327/108/2.0) Age 30(FA 2017) Joe Mauer(.321/104/1.6) Age 31(FA 2019) Oswaldo Arcia(.317/101/1.0) Age 23(2017/2020) Eduardo Escobar(.315/100/2.4) Age 25(2015/2019) Chris Parmelee(.304/92/-0.2) Age 26(2016/2019) Eduardo Nunez(.304/92/1.6) Age 27(2015/2018) Chris Colabello(.293/84/-2.3) Age 30(2017/2020) Aaron Hicks(.288/81/-0.6) Age 24(2017/2020) Jason Kubel(.278/-1.1/-3.1) Age 33(No Contract) Kendrys Morales(.255/58/-0.8) Age 31(FA 2015) Well I can say I'm happy we got rid of Kubel and Morales. Also I think Colabello may not be seen in a Twins uniform again. I feel sorry for him because I wanted him to become an incredible player, but baseball is a business. I'm going to break the players still on the Twins roster down by position to make for easy analysis: Outfielders: Is Schafer going to be a 6 WAR player? I seriously doubt it. But at 28, he isn't really that old and I think he has shown that he can be better than he was in Atlanta. I respect anybody who says that Schafer should be nothing more than a 4th OF, but by the numbers, he's been our best outfielder this year; so even if there is regression, he has to be legitimately discussed as a starting option. I hope Arcia figures it out, but it's been frustrating to watch him this year. Every time he seems to figure something out I feel like he regresses right away. I think if Arcia can't figure out how to hit more consistently he's going to be in major trouble. It is excusable to play a poor defender in right field, but only if they can out hit their defensive woes, and I just haven't seen enough of that from Arcia. I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins. I think it's time to give up on Parmelee. I always wanted him to succeed, but I just don't see anything to indicate he will outplay his current numbers. Infielders: A note for Twins management: I'm considering Santana and Nunez as infielders regardless what your lineups and rosters say. Until somebody invents a stat for expected regression rate, Danny Santana is the man. He is exactly the type of player who should hit on top of the Twins lineup (or any lineup for that matter). Put him at short, where his defensive rating will increase even if they are still slightly below average, and we could be looking at a darn good player here. Of course, if Danny Santana is our shortstop, what does that mean for Escobar? I have been a huge Escobar fan all year long and think he has done nothing to justify the loss of his job, but as the title indicates, I'm going by the numbers. Offensively, Escobar has been average. Now, for a shortstop, average is good, especially when 2.4 WAR would be generated in 500 PA, but Santana is simply better. Unfortunately, so is Plouffe and so is Dozier. I think Escobar is too good to be a bench player, but the Twins infield, weirdly enough, is actually very solid right now. Maybe this means he's trade bait. I can definitely see why Gardy plays Santana in the outfield, whether I agree or not. In terms of WAR/500 PA, there are 3 infielders better than Santana and only 1 outfielder. Nunez has actually turned out to be a pretty good bench player. C/1B/DH: Like Danny Santana, many people don't trust Vargas so sustain his numbers, but a .356 wOBA would look pretty dang good at the middle of any lineup. As we all would have thought, Pinto is a much better choice in terms of offense than Suzuki, but because of his defensive problems, he still rates lower in terms of WAR. He also doesn't have the bat to boot Vargas out of his spot. I like Pinto as a backup catcher, and he can DH on days Mauer has off, so I do think he can contribute to next year's Twins. He's been our 6th best hitter this year; he needs to be in the lineup. Mauer, I hope, can only get better. Well, the outfield could use some help. I have no problem with giving Arcia another shot, and I think Schafer has earned some playing time as well. Hicks should be in the mix, but it depends on how September goes. With Schafer and Hicks able to play center, it is not necessary that a FA signing be a centerfielder, but I think they would need to be capable of solid defense at the corner spots. Other than that there really isn't much need for offense. I would be content if the Twins broke camp with these 13 (again note to the management, the Twins should have 13 hitters): Outfield: Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Free-Agent Signing Infield: Santana, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Nunez C/1B/DH: Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas Let me know your thoughts and thanks for reading!

I don't like Gardy talking about his players like this...Mauer had a rough first half, yes, but now he's just going to say it was from pressure to play in the hometown ASG? So everything's back to normal now? Doesn't that put pressure on Mauer to just go back to hitting over .300 and stay there? I just think this comment is kind of inappropriate.

Let's face it, every Twins fan is getting tired of watching the poor play of the past couple years. We know the future looks bright as we await the arrival of some of baseballs top prospects, but that does not help the situation on the field right now. The fact of it is, the Twins are lousy again this year and, like usual, it looks like the starting rotation is to blame. Everybody has their own theory on how the Twins can end the losing. A common theme I keep hearing is some version of "I think it's time the Twins spend some money and sign some impact players!" I love the spirit of that argument, but if it were so easy, why wouldn't the Twins have done it by now? On Monday, I took a look at the top "impact" starting pitchers in baseball and how their current teams acquired them. If you missed it, here's the link: http://twinsdaily.co...rting-pitching/ Today, I'm going to take a look at the top position players in baseball and see how they came to play for their current teams. I tried to look at the players a contending team could build their lineup around. The players I am looking at are those that have at least 400 plate appearances (350 for catchers) and lead the league in wOBA (top 5 for C, IF, CF; top 10 for corner OF; top 3 for DH). I sorted the players the same way as I did pitchers on Monday and included each players wOBA and wRC+ for reference. All data comes from Fangraphs. Group 1: Free Agent Acquisitions C Russell Martin(.371/140), 2B Robinson Cano(.372/141), 3B Adrian Beltre(.383/140), 3B Aramis Ramirez(.356/125), SS Jhonny Peralta(.350/125), OF Jayson Werth(.364/132), OF Melky Cabrera(.364/130), OF Michael Morse(.358/135), DH Victor Martinez(.398/155), DH David Ortiz (.373/136), DH Nelson Cruz (.359/128) This accounts for 11 of the 43 players I examined, or just over 1/4. This is significantly higher than the 15% observed amongst pitchers. I believe this reflects the fact that most teams value starting pitching more than any other aspect of the game, so position players are simply less likely to be signed to multi-year extensions before hitting the free agent market. It is interesting that all three of the top DHs were acquired as free agents. Group 2: Non-Drafted Free Agents 1B Jose Abreu(.410/162), 2B Jose Altuve(.355/128), SS Starlin Castro(.335/111), SS Alexi Ramirez(.327/105), OF Yasiel Puig(.387/152) This group only accounts for 5/43 (11%) "impact" hitters, significantly less than I expected. Abreu and Puig were extremely high risk signings, and the fact that they have both have had so much success will probably increase the price of signing Cuban defectors. I worry that this will lead to inflated contracts that teams will ultimately get stuck with when one of these players turns out to be a bust. Group 3: Drafted by Current Organization C Jonathan Lucroy(.373/136), C Evan Gattis(.367/135), C Buster Posey(.349/129), 1B Paul Goldschmidt(.402/155), 1B Freddie Freeman(.381/146), 2B Neil Walker(.356/129), 2B Brian Dozier(.339/115), 3B Kyle Seager(.356/130), 3B Lonnie Chisenhall(.356/130), CF Andrew McCutchen(.406/164), CF Mike Trout(.401/164), CF Matt Kemp(.352/128), OF Giancarlo Stanton(.409/163), OF Kole Calhoun(.360/136) Again, more players were acquired through the draft than any other medium, with about a third of "impact" players being acquired in this way. This is the same percentage as observed when looking at starting pitchers. It makes sense that teams want to wrap their best players up long-term rather than allowing them to become free agents. Group 4: Acquired via Trade C Derek Norris(.360/130), 1B Edwin Encarnacion(.393/150), 1B Anthony Rizzo(.386/146), 2B Ben Zobrist(.346/126), 3B Josh Harrison(.361/133), SS Jose Reyes(.331/107), CF Carlos Gomez(.368/133), CF Adam Jones(.343/116), OF Jose Bautista(.388/147), OF Justin Upton(.387/149), OF Seth Smith(.383/150), OF Michael Brantley(.379/147) Again, this category combines players traded as prospects and as major league players, and it accounts for 12/43, or 28% of "impact" hitters. This is just slightly smaller than the number for starting pitchers and remains significantly higher than the percentage of players acquired through the free agent market. Group 5: Acquired via Posting Process None of the players I examined were acquired this way. The results here are nearly identical as those for pitchers. Drafting and developing talent is, again, the best way to obtain impact players, with the trade market being the second best route. I was curious so I looked at our two sensational rookies (Santana and Vargas). If they had enough at bats, Santana would rank 3rd amongst centerfielders and Vargas would rank 2nd amongst DHs, which I think is pretty cool. I guess offensively the key is patience for the Twins. I think they have shown a ton of improvement this year and hopefully will over the next couple of years as well. My overall conclusion is that it is not possible to rely exclusively on free agency to build a team; drafting and trading are both more important. Let me know what you think and thank you for reading!

I don't think the outfield is the place for Plouffe...if our rotation is ever going to lower its ERA, we're going to need actual defenders in the outfield. In three outfield positions, it's okay to have one weak link (Arcia), but the other two had better be pretty darn good defenders. This means Plouffe, Pinto, and Parmelee aren't really the best options. Maybe Schafer and Hicks are the answer, I'm sure a lot of people would disagree, but every team needs people to hit in the 8 and 9 spots of the lineup, and that would be a way to really help the defense. Hopefully by mid-season whoever is performing worse between the two is swapped out for Buxton. We could also look for a better option through the trade market or free agency, but it would have to be a defense-first player. Once Sano comes up, if he proves himself to be the true third baseman of the future, Plouffe becomes expendable, and should be traded.

Let's face it, every Twins fan is getting tired of watching the poor play of the past couple years. We know the future looks bright as we await the arrival of some of baseballs top prospects, but that does not help the situation on the field right now. The fact of it is, the Twins are lousy again this year and, like usual, it looks like the starting rotation is to blame. Everybody has their own theory on how the Twins can end the losing. A common theme I keep hearing is some version of "I think it's time the Twins spend some money and sign some impact players!" I love the spirit of that argument, but if it were so easy, why wouldn't the Twins have done it by now? This is my first post in a short series that will look at whether or not it is even possible to find impact players in a free agent market. I begin where the Twins struggle most, in the starting rotation. Using Fangraphs, I looked at all the starting pitchers that I would call impact players based on their performance this season. I limited my search to qualifiers, because pitchers who haven't qualified haven't really made that large of an impact. The only two stats I really focused on were ERA and FIP. I know ERA is not a perfect statistic, but sometimes actual results are as important as theoretical results. In forming a team, I would feel confident using any of these players as a Number 2 or Ace (based only on their performance this year). I have divided them into five groups based on how their current team acquired them: Note: after ever name I will provide this seasons ERA/FIP in parentheses. Group 1: Free Agent Acquisitions Phil Hughes(3.65, 2.62), Zack Greinke(2.79, 3.14), Scott Kazmir(3.08, 3.42), Ervin Santana(3.60, 3.32), Tim Hudson(2.99, 3.51) This group accounts for 5/34 players, or just under 15%. The fact that only 15% of "impact" pitchers were acquired through the free agent market is enough to indicate it is probably not the best way to find top pitching talent. I'm happy to see the Twins own one of these five players. Interestingly, four of these five players signed last offseason, despite the free agent class being considered weak in terms of pitching. It is also worth noting that not all of these pitchers play for large market teams, despite the fact that large market teams tend to attract more expensive free agents. Group 2: Non-Drafed Free Agents Felix Hernandez(2.07, 2.23), Jose Quintana(3.25, 2.85), Johnny Cueto(2.20, 3.25), Hisashi Iwakuma(2.83, 3.04), Julio Teheran(2.96, 3.52) Again just 5/34 or just under 15%. Throw in the fact that Hisashi Iwakuma tried to sign via the posting process but had no luck, so he was actually major league ready when acquired. The fact that only 4 international free agents are still with their original teams and having terrific seasons seems low to me. Group 3: Drafted by Current Organization Clayton Kershaw(2.53, 2.63), Chris Sale(2.03, 2.44), Garrett Richards(2.61, 2.61), Jordan Zimmermann(2.93, 2.81), Dallas Keuchel(3.12, 3.25), Cole Hamels(2.53, 3.01), Stephen Strasburg(3.59, 3.14), Lance Lynn(2.78, 3.07), Madison Bumgarner(3.17, 3.00), Rick Porcello(3.09, 3.55), Sonny Gray(3.00, 3.42) As expected, more of our "impact" pitchers were acquired through the draft than any other medium. This represents 11/34, or around 1/3 of the players being analyzed. This provides evidence that drafting and developing pitching talent should remain the top priority for all ballclubs. Group 4: Acquired via Trade Corey Kluber(2.46, 2.48), Jon Lester(2.53, 2.63), Max Scherzer(3.13, 2.82), David Price(3.00, 2.93), Adam Wainwright(2.52, 2.80), Chris Archer(3.09, 3.02), James Shields(3.28, 3.69), Jeff Samardzija(3.27, 3.45), Mark Buehrle(3.41, 3.82), Tyson Ross(2.68, 3.29) Almost as large as the group of players drafted by their current organization, 10/34 "impact" pitchers (about 30%) were acquired via trade. Maybe this group is too general, as some of these players were acquired as prospects and other are more rentals, but it appears that the second most effective way to find good starting pitching is by trading. Group 5: Acquired via Posting Process Yu Darvish(3.06, 2.85), Masahiro Tanaka(2.51, 3.07), Hyun-Jin Ryu(3.28, 2.77) All three of these pitchers have worked out quite well (as has Iwakuma), but they should all be considered high-risk signings. It is impossible to know how successful a player who has never pitched in the majors will fare, and this is a much more substantial agreement (in both years and dollars) than drafting or signing young, undeveloped talent. I believe the reason that only 3/34(9%) of "impact" pitchers were acquired this way is because the number of players talented enough to be worth the risk is so low. I guess after looking at the numbers, it is possible to find a free agent pitcher capable of high-level play, but it is easier to rely on drafting, trade for prospects, and rent aces from other teams. This doesn't mean every free agent signing is bad, but rather than it looks like us Twins fans are going to have to wait for our prospects (like Meyer, Berrios, and Stewart) to make an impact before we can do much more than continue to fill the back of the rotation. Maybe by 2015 or 2016 we will have a strong enough foundation to look into aggressively persuing pitchers through the trade market, but until then, I recommend patience. Feel free to add your own thoughts/add any players I may have forgotten. I'll be back with a look at "impact" hitters as soon as I have time to do some more research. Thanks for reading!

I think the Twins need to take a "use it or lose it" approach to Pinto. Even if he's terrible defensively, I would expect many teams to have a substantial interest in acquiring a young, cost-controlled, offensively solid catcher. I'm not really sure where he fits in on the current Twins: definitely not left field, unless we want pitchers to have ERAs north of 6 we should not even consider having Arcia and Pinto play both corners. I'm interested to see if Herrmann has figured something out, at least enough to be a better backup than Fryer. I don't see DH/1B as a good option because the Twins won't move Mauer again (whether they should or not is a different issue, but it's just not going to happen), Vargas can't play anywhere else, and if Sano has issues playing third base after his surgery, that adds a third player to the mix. Pinto has become a talented player with no room for him to play and no desire from his organization to find him playing time, so unless something changes, they might as well flip him.

I feel like the practice of giving these mega contracts to players who haven't played in the MLB will eventually bite someone hard. In hindsight, of course I would have loved the Twins to have grabbed Cespedes, Yuig, or Abreu, but if this guy ends up being a bust the Red Sox are stuck with a huge contract that nobody will be willing to pick up. I wouldn't want that to happen to the Twins. I think the Twins need to figure out how to pitch before they worry about signing more offensive talent-our offense is good enough that they could compete with a competitive rotation, so that should be the first priority.

I agree with you completely. This team can acquire as much hitting as they want, but even if we had nine all stars in the everyday lineup we would have a hard time outhitting the ridiculous starting pitching ERAs we've been putting up over the past couple years.

Excellent point! Without strong pitching, I don't think it really matters how strong a team is offensively, they're going to lose plenty of games. Just look at the month the Twins are having: and OBP of .349 and 131 runs scored are both good for first in all of baseball, but our starting pitcher ERA sits at a whopping 5.56. The result, as one would assume, is a losing record. Thanks for the feedback!

Well assuming we don't have any off-season acquisitions (which I hope isn't the case) I would put our lineup like this on opening day: Santana-CF Mauer-1B Vargas-DH Arcia-LF Dozier-2B Plouffe-3B Suzuki-C Escobar-SS Hicks-RFIf Sano is ready, he just swaps out for Plouffe (eventually, he'll be a cleanup hitter, but at first there is no need to put that added pressure on him). Likewise, I'd put Buxton in the 8-hole at first (eventually in the number two spot, but again, no need to put pressure on him until he hits). Santana then comes in to play short and Escobar sits out. At that point, the Twins should seriously consider moving either Escobar or Plouffe. I think both could command a pretty good return. No prospect is a sure thing, but say Sano and Buxton do hit like maniacs, then I put the lineup like this: Santana-SS Buxton-CF Mauer-1B Sano-3B Vargas-DH Arcia-LF Dozier-2B Suzuki-C Hicks-RFTo me, that looks like a pretty darn good lineup.

The other day, I was watching Moneyball, one of my favorite films. My favorite scene is when Billy Beane is in the room with a bunch of scouts saying the team should sign a bunch of questionable players. His response, as I'm sure most of you know, to all the criticisms he receives is "He gets on base." This got me thinking, how important is it to get on base? Using Fangraphs, I collected a bunch of data from last season, focusing on the team as a whole rather than individual stats. My goal was to see which aspects of hitting (OBP, OPS, wOBA, etc) had the largest impact on the number of runs the team scored. Some of the stuff I found seemed obvious, other stuff was quite surprising. For each statistic I ran a linear regression between total runs(y) and that statistic(x). I have reported the slope and correlation coefficient for each one: AVG: slope=4.76(r=0.81) OBP: slope=4.96 (r=0.89) SLG: slope=2.91(r=0.90) OPS: slope=2.04(r=0.94) wOBA: slope=5.00(r=0.94) BB%: slope=4.18(r=0.48) ISO: slope=2.87(r=0.60) HR: slope=1.47(r=0.53) SB: slope=-0.08(r=-0.03) It comes as no surprise that wOBA has both the strongest correlation and the most runs per percentage point of all the statistics I looked at. If anything, all this means is that wOBA truely is a great way to measure offensive value. In addition, the fact that OBP has a slightly larger impact than AVG indicates that getting on base via BB, HBP, Error, FC, etc. does create more run-scoring opportunities. However, the correlation between BB% and total runs was quite weak. Now that I think about it, this may be because a team can walk less and hit more and still recover their OBP, so this is really no different than AVG having a lower r-value than OBP. I'm surprised that SLG and OPS have a smaller impact than AVG and OBP, but I think this just exposes the weakness of those stats compared to wOBA. The fact that ISO has such a weak correlation with total runs further emphasizes that hitting for extra bases does not tell you as much as simply getting on base. I figured ahead of time that using HR and SB would provide weak correlations since they are counting stats, but it was interesting to see there is no correlation whatsoever between stolen bases and total runs scored. I guess I didn't really learn all that much from doing this, but I can say the simple act of getting on base is more important to scoring runs than the business of how one gets on base (OBP vs AVG or BB%), and that wOBA is an awesome and useful statistic. So I guess Billy Beane was right, if a player gets on base, he's worth having on your team. I'm new to Twins Daily and this is my first blog post! I love numbers but I also love the other aspects of the game, so as I continue to publish I promise not everything will be quite this dry Thanks for reading and feel free to share your own thoughts and analysis!

I really don't like the idea of Pinto in the outfield at the same time as Arcia, but there may be ways to get his bat in the line up without sacrificing the little outfield defense we have. I propose he scrape together starts from several different places: 1) Pinto acts as the backup catcher to Suzuki, gets two starts/week behind the plate (over a whole season this acconts for roughly 50 games). 2) Mauer will probably sit out at least 20 games, during these games Vargas plays 1B and Pinto DHs. 3) Pinto and Arcia get placed in a platoon, either directly or indirectly. Although I think he's improved a little bit, Arcia still does not seem capable of putting up solid numbers against LHP. Rather than force Arcia to stay in the lineup and struggle I think the Twins are better off putting either Pinto or Mauer (obviously defense would be better with Mauer) in RF against LHP. Depending on who's in RF, this puts either Mauer or Vargas at first with either Vargas or Pinto DHing. This part is a total guess, but say 25-30% of games played are started by a lefty, this accounts for a little over 40 games started by Pinto per year (we'll say 40 as there would probably be some overlap with the other two options. All in all, we are looking at Pinto starting 110 games in a season, which would definitely be better than the playing time he was seeing this season. The only problem is Gardy would never go for this without a third catcher, so either the Twins need to get a new manager who doesn't have an irrational fear of playing both catchers in the same game, or we would need a third catcher on the roster. As much as I'm opposed to three-catcher rosters, I prefer them to 13-man bullpens...

Like all players, it isn't fair to say whether he should be traded or not. If I'm TR, I'm going to contact some other GMs and find out what they would be willing to give up for Josmil Pinto. There are a bunch of teams who could use an offensive upgrade at catcher, and if they give TR a good enough offer, it would be foolish not to take it. On the other hand, I do like Pinto and would love to see him in a Twins uniform, but if he's never going to get a chance anyways, we might as well cash in.

Honestly I'm perfectly fine leaving Santana in CF at the start of next year. Buxton isn't going to be ready, and there is nobody else in the organization who has done more to earn an extended look. The FA market at center is insanely weak and we have a good hitting shortstop in Escobar. Until Buxton is ready the Twins should role with those two both in the everyday lineup. They can always reevaluate later