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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Not sure how long this has been going on but fangraphs has the scouting grades of most minor leaguers, even those outside the team top 10. I believe the grades are done by McDaniel who tends to be a harsh grader but it gives a nice idea of where the players are now and where they might project. Low A guys and rookies are far enough away that most won't get a future value better than 45 at this point but it's interesting to see the grades for guys like Turner, Kepler and Harrison.
  2. gunnarthor
    This is a pretty strong 16-20. I guess I'm lukewarm on Duffey (maybe it's his name) but I really like Reed and Minier. Harrison and Turner aren't sexy but both could develop into solid parts. Really deep system.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yep, and it's hardly unique to the Twins to let college guys play in rookie ball and the low minors - esp for a 3rd round pick. Their were a lot of 22 year olds in the Florida State league who were drafted out of college (including first rounders) who are on the same path as Walker. Now, whether or not Walker can make the jump at AA is a big question mark. But I don't see how anyone could suggest that the Twins were harming his development thus far.
  4. gunnarthor
    They have a few diamond in the rough types. Lewis Thorpe will be ranked a top 100 guy by a few places. Hu is another pitcher to watch this year. I think both Eddie Rosario and Stephen Gonsalves were 4th round picks. All four of those guys could have big years for us.
  5. gunnarthor
    Thanks for posting that. Couple thoughts: 1) No Walker. Until he improves his strike zone he really isn't much of a prospect for Klaw. 2) Nice to see Michael ranked high again. I think we've tended to write him off but he's still young enough to maybe become a Nick Punto type UI. 3) He still seems to like Rosario, despite a bad year. That's good. 4) The complaint on Klaw has been that he likes ceiling/young guys too much. But sometimes that works out. He was a big believer in Arcia before the rest. And now he has Minier in the team top 10. Hope he's right on that too. 5) I think our top 15 or so prospects are pretty darn good. Gets a little fuzzy after that but that's really nice prospect depth. Kepler would probably be top 10 in a lot of other systems.
  6. gunnarthor
    Right, and as some have shown, Parker's methodology is weak and his conclusions aren't really supported by his findings. That's the concern "our side" has. (And you're dismissal of Tobi's May/Meyer doesn't really hold. They were acquired b/c other teams valued the players the Twins picked in the draft. Flipping a second round pick into a 2 WAR pitching season is a good result of a draft).
  7. gunnarthor
    It's not a horrible ranking. Klaw has always had doubts about his ability to strike out hitters with his flat plane and he's not a ground ball pitcher. And Berrios' ceiling, in scout talk, is probably a #3 pitcher. He doesn't have the upside of Meyer or Stewart. Of all the prospect guys, Klaw has always been the lowest on Berrios. On the flip side, I believe he's always been a big supporter of Gordon.
  8. gunnarthor
    Hope he does well. He's the player I'm most concerned about but if he could actually raise his walk rates, he could be a real impact bat.
  9. gunnarthor
    Because baseball is designed to by cyclical. Unless teams can spend their way out of it, the system of player acquisition is specifically designed to punish successful teams. (And, for years, the system to acquire international talent was designed to punish poor teams). Nothing about the Twins current 4 losing years is anything but normal compared to the rest of the AL. As to Parker's work, I don't dispute that they have had some bad drafts. I do think the conclusions and methodology are weak and were designed with the conclusion already made.
  10. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I think umps should do a better job of forcing the issue. I liked Joe P's piece abut how baseball has no clock and I agreed with it. As to the reliever rule, all I could think was Tony La Russa would have fought like hell against that.
  11. gunnarthor
    I want Hicks to start at AAA but it doesn't look like it'll happen. So, let's see what the positives are. For all his warts, Hicks does get on base pretty well. He had a .341 OBP for the season and about a .350 after his return. That's pretty darn good. Ignoring everything else, if you were told your #8 hitter would have a .350 OBP and play adequate defense in CF, you'd take that, right? It amazes me that Hicks has so little pop in his bat and I imagine it has to do with him not feeling right at the plate. Maybe he'll feel better around Molitor and Hunter than he did with Gardy. But I'm pretty sure we're going to find out. I think he and Schafer are the type of guys the Twins, in a rebuild, should take a gamble on. Former top prospects who are still young enough to break out. And Buxton will be up by midseason anyway.
  12. gunnarthor
    Yeah, and Baez graduated so he isn't on it. Probably the best prospect group since the early 90s, I would guess. That said, a few of those guys are going to end up at third.
  13. gunnarthor
    Oh, right, I forgot the Giants. My bad.
  14. gunnarthor
    I think you can criticize the Twins for a lot of things but this doesn't seem like one of them. If they were drafting for need, they would have taken Gausman, Appel or Zimmer over Buxton. Draft cheap? Sure. Stay away from certain agents? Sure. Refuse to go over slot? You bet. But not draft for need. It just doesn't work in baseball. By the time a guy is ready, the need for the ML club is probably different.
  15. gunnarthor
    These are also true factual statements that also mislead the reader Since the Pohlads took over the Twins, only the large market Yankees and Red Sox have won more World Series. Over the last 17 years, Astros first round picks have amassed a total of 8 WAR. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the fewest losses in MLB history. At this point, I think we're just talking past each other. I do think that the Twins drafts should be examined but picking arbitrary endpoints - after Garza, before Buxton - confirms the results you are looking for rather than a fair look at draft history. And, as I already pointed out, it lets you whitewash the good 07 and 09 drafts.
  16. gunnarthor
    Again, that makes a statement that isn't true (insert Mark Twain quote here). The 07 draft (Revere) and 09 (Gibson) were good picks. You are over weighing the failures of the 08 and 10 draft to paint too broad a brush. And it overvalues the earlier drafts as players from your arbitrary end point are still developing or amassing value. There are some issues with the drafts but this isn't really telling us much compared to the misinformation it shows.
  17. gunnarthor
    Looking at only a small frame of time can distort how we look at things. Nearly all teams have cyclical results, esp if you are looking at 5 or 6 year periods and/or only a part of the draft process (which is only part of the development system). The problem with saying the Twins first round draft picks were bad from 06-11 is 1) they weren't - both Revere and Gibson were good picks and Hicks still might be and 2) it ignores the entire drafts. Looking at in a more reasonable light would suggest that the 07 and 09 drafts were good and that Johnson's drafts strategy might not be ideal.
  18. gunnarthor
    Under the old system, certain teams absolutely went over the recommended slot a lot. Boston probably did it the most but Detroit got Porcello (a top end talent who dropped) one pick in front of us. By 2010, I think the majority of teams went over slot, while the Twins didn't - Carl Pohlad was very loyal to Selig on that issue, as was the Mets owner. It was a really contentious issue on most message boards for a while. Players like Span and Revere were seen as "safe" picks - both of those picks were panned almost immediately from prospect gurus.
  19. gunnarthor
    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb Most of it is insider but the video is not. Twins are ranked #2 and he has nice things to say about Nick Gordon. Detroit is last.
  20. gunnarthor
    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=ss In front of him are Correa, LIndor, Seager, Crawford and Russell. Which are 5 pretty high upside short stops. "The Gordon family name is a well-known one in baseball. Nick's father Tom is a former All-Star pitcher and brother Dee made his first All-Star team a year ago. The younger Gordon had been a mainstay on the showcase circuit for some time, then lived up to his advanced billing by being taken No. 5 overall in the 2014 Draft and having a solid professional debut in the Appalachian League. At one point in time, Gordon could have been taken as a pitcher or a shortstop, but he focused solely on the infield during his senior season. His efforts proved to Twins evaluators that there's no question he can stay at the premium position. His arm used to fire low-90s fastballs from the mound, he has great hands and outstanding instincts. At the plate, Gordon hits to all fields from the left side of the plate. Right now, he's more of a gap hitter, but he should add some strength and a little power as he matures. While not a burner, Gordon does run well. The Twins thought enough of Gordon and his makeup to skip him over the Gulf Coast League and send him to the Appy League last summer, so he's already on a faster track than many high school draftees entering the 2015 season." I really liked the Gordon pick last year - only wanted Rodon and Aiken more. Hopefully, Gordon has a great year this season.
  21. gunnarthor
    But I'm not sure if this isn't an oversimplification (or even fair to say they whiffed for six straight years b/c they didn't). We aren't looking at entire drafts, just the first round - which varies in number of selections each year. The end points are arbitrary (although I do think looking at Johnson's drafts would be more valid b/c we see a team change their draft philosophy). Looking at the 06-11 first round picks ignores the value the team got out of Valencia and Dozier. It also ignores the value they got from trading some of those players they drafted. And there are still some players in those drafts that could end up helping the team. A few years ago, people used to complain about the 04 draft but now that Plouffe has emerged, it doesn't look as bad. And you'd have to look at all teams drafts to figure things out. I do think it's safe to say that the Twins bombed the 06 draft, just as the Cards bombed the 04 draft. 07 and 09 seem like pretty good drafts though, considering where they were picking. 08 and 10 don't look good although Hicks and Rosario could change them. It's probably too early to call 11 a bust but it looks like the best case scenario of that draft would be a utility infielder and maybe a few relievers.
  22. gunnarthor
    What was the Twins median pick? How many teams behind them did better?
  23. gunnarthor
    Top 10 lists at positions aren't as important, generally, as the top 100 overall. Meyer will probably be ranked around 20-25, and he's #10 on the RHP list. Avery Romero is #10 on the second base list and probably won't be ranked at all. I expect Buxton and Gordon to be in their respective top 10s, which gives the Twins 4 guys. And then I expect Stewart and Berrios to be in the top 50 of most lists, giving the team 6 top 60ish prospects. And a few guys (Thorpe, Burdi, Rosario, May) might crack an occasional top 100 somewhere as well. It's a very strong system right now.
  24. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'm not as worried about it as I think the beginning and end points are somewhat arbitrary and it doesn't take into account the different types of players drafted (HS pitcher, prep bat etc) or injuries but I do think it's fair to look at Johnson's drafts (08 on) as opposed to what we were doing before. Johnson has made a strong push for flamethrowers whereas Radcliff was much more likely to draft the college control arm. I preferred the Radcliff way but I'm in the minority. But fireballers means you have to take your shots on guys like Hunt and they don't always work out. (And I know it's an oversimplification - Johnson did take Wimmers and Radcliff did take Garza, for instance, but their drafts did have those tendencies).
  25. gunnarthor
    A few of those signings you listed were before the international pool rules. The Twins were more active elsewhere. I wish the Twins had signed Morales in 2005 but that isn't really the time frame Mike had brought up. That said, I think you missed the general point I was trying to make but I think diehard did a better job of that anyway.
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