King
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Everything posted by King
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I have a difficult time believing the Twins would balk at De Leon + Alvarez +, so consider me skeptical.
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Adopt-A-Prospect 2017 Discussion Thread
King replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'd be interested if you guys work out the kinks. -
Article: The Twins Are Going to Win 80 Games in 2017
King replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The team currently projects to win 74 so give or take some random variance 80 isn't out of the question. It's possible that they win 80 games. I don't think they do it. But I can't wait to find out. Spring training is just around the corner. -
Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino 7m7 minutes ago I'm told #mntwins intend to wrap up Dozier talks -- one way or another -- in "short term" out of respect for Dozier. No specific date.
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I just wanted to say that I'm 19 years old. All of a sudden feeling really young.
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Not really. De Leon pitched 86 innings of an obscene level in AAA and Stewart had 50 innings of dominance as well. And both these guys have an extensive history of dominating the minor leagues at levels below AAA.
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The Archie Bradley discussion went like this. "How about Archie Bradley?" "His command profile is terrible and he has an extensive injury history. Too much risk" "You're right he is risky." Very enticing.
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I think we have different definitions of a mediocre player.
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Yeah that doesn't make any sense at all. He absolutely shredded Low A and looked fantastic while doing it. Also are you Dustin Nosler (https://twitter.com/DustinNosler)? I follow you on twitter, and really appreciate the Dodgers insight. Just wanted to say if that's you (I assume it is) keep up the good work!
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I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Stewart had a higher K% and SwStr% than both Berrios and De Leon in the MLB last year.
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He did take a step in the right direction last year. It was looking real ugly after 2014 and 2015.
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Stewart had a 13.8 SwStr% in AA and 12.7 SwStr% in AAA. De Leon had a 13.6 SwStr% in AAA. Berrios had a 12.3 SwStr% in AAA. I'd believe the stats over the scouting reports, at this point, unless something showed up in the profile that said that those are bad pitches (could be possible).
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I think Bradley more so than most prospects that were of his level (top 10 MLB?). He's a pitcher, so that's already risky, and a quick twitter search shows me that he had shoulder issues in 2015 and elbow issues in 2014, and he has a poor command profile and poor platoon splits. It's just a lot of negatives.
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Buster Olney weighs in, but behind a paywall (ESPN insider). http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15606
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There's a lot of risk there.
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I don't know how you can say he's a one pitch pitcher. His changeup had a 16.3 SwStr% last year and his slider had a 21 SwStr%. Those are weapons
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Robbie Ray would be a nice pitcher to have.
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There's hundreds of examples. Players outperform their minor league projections all the time. Paul Goldschmidt wasn't regarded as a prospect. Kevin Pillar was thought to be no more than a 4th outfielder. For pitchers you're looking at Jacob DeGrom, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, etc. as guys who have outperformed their minor league projections. The kicker is that all these guys were actually good in the minor leagues, but were overlooked. Just like Brock Stewart.
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I don't see a fit anywhere other than the Dodgers and maybe the Cardinals. All the other teams at the bottom of the 2B standings are rebuilding or retooling. I'd be pretty disappointed if the return for Dozier was headlined by Wisler or Foltynewicz.
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They are locked in with Devon Travis at 2B and Steve Pearce to fill in at the position when Travis inevitably gets injured. Don't think there is a fit there.
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If you read the article, it was reported by La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. I don't know what credibility he has though. The initial report was here: http://www.startribune.com/want-brian-dozier-twins-imply-time-s-running-out-to-consider-trade-offers/408699505/ Jon Heyman reported the same thing not too long ago. It's not a fluff piece, this is real information that they have received from people within the organizations, the issue is that it contradicts what Dave has been reporting all along. Either Daves source or La Velle/Heymans source are wrong here, who knows which one is right. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/heymans-latest-encarnacion-trumbo-jays-moss-napoli-dozier-padres.html While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
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Projected WAR for teams at 2B. Dodgers make the most sense by far. http://i.imgur.com/4j8xrCa.png http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=2B
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This doesn't lineup with what was reported on MLBTR this morning. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brian-dozier-trade-rumors-final-offer-twins.html?fv-home=true&post-id=81577 Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. The Twins, meanwhile, have understandably been insistent on the inclusion of at least one more well-regarded prospect. The Dodgers “haven’t blinked,” however, according to Neal. That lines up with this week’s report from FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the Dodgers aren’t willing to include any of Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon in a trade to acquire Dozier.
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If they are stuc I don't think it's that crazy. Stewart is really good. As a 24 year old in AA last year he had a 23.8 K-BB%, 1.67 FIP and 24.4 K-BB% in AAA, 2.97 FIP (bloated due to the home run environment in the PCL). Steamer projects him for a 3.62 FIP true talent level, which is equivalent or around pitchers like Marcus Stroman, Alex Reyes, Julio Urias, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, Justin Verlander, Kyle Hendricks.. People who have him pegged as a #5 starter are misleading themselves. Not trying to take anything away from De Leon. But Stewart is really good as well. There's a path to a scenario in which Stewart ends up being the better SP in the long run, especially if shoulder issues begin to take over for De Leon. Both would be nice pieces to have.
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Drafting for need is a very poor idea.
