Lakeside
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Everything posted by Lakeside
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I don't think this happened soon at all. .it takes two to trade and Seattle is in the WC hunt (or they think they are). . I'm guessing that they institued the talks and wanted Morales ASAP. Good move by theTwin also. . . they save money in a non-contending year. . and if they truly love Morales (which I don't think they do. . they can go after him as a free agent) Also, I'm thinking that Fien will continue to be the 8th inning guy next year. A couple relievers (Pressly, Achter, Tonkin, etc) will fight it out for Gurrier and Burton spots)
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I think these line-ups are pretty logical when considering who we have under control and, at least one assumes retaining Suzuki. Possibility #1 - That Nolasco is not there and that both May and Berrios are SPs. Nolasco not on the team would take the right circumstance, but I'm guessing that in the right situation they could move him -- possibly eating part of the contract Possibility #2-- The lineup, IMO, is home run challenged unless Vargas starts right up, Arcia starts to hit, and Dozier continues his pace. I would suggest using the money saved by Willingham, Correie, Pelfrey, Morales, etc. to get somebody who we could "count on" for 20Hrs annually.
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Totally agree with Jokin on the "pace of change" in all industries. . . You have to be nimble now to survive. In fairness to the Pohlad's and the Twins organizations, and I cannot comment on technical analytics and scouting changes because I don't have knowledge of such, but I can say I can say that the Pohlads have been pretty aggressive in some aspects of driving, in baseball terms - cutting edge changes. . i.e. they were among the first to build academies in Venezuela and the Dominican and they were among the first to scout Australia and are now large proponents of the Australian Baseball League. They were also right on the heels of the Yankees in trying to build their own network for television -- Victory Sports. Baseball drives regional cable operators, because of the 162 game schedule, and if you are a regional cable operator it is hard to be profitable if you don't control the MLB team in your market. For various reasons, they dropped Victory for a larger rights fee from Fox. IMO not a great long term decison. Its conceivable that Victory, if operating today, would bring in $100M in revenues. . the Pohlads, have generally stated, that they will bring players salaries up to about 53% of revenue. People, who I believe would know, beleive that if Victory had been successful the Twins would have about another $30-35M (the revenue % as compared to Fox rights fees)to spend on payroll. I do, on another topic, believe that maybe they have let the course run too far with current baseball related field management. . .Gardenhire/Anderson. I feel that Gardenhire's loyalty to Anderson has not helped the pitching staff.
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I'm going from memory here, but I think, over the years since the Pohlads bought the team, the Presidents of the organization were from different businesses with the first baseball grown President being Dave St. Peter. Jerry Bell was the first President/COO of Twins Baseball, Inc. when the Pohlads bought the team in '84 and served until, I think, Chris Clouser was brought in as COO. . I think Clouser came from Burger King??, and then Kevin Cattoor was brought in frrom Television,MSC/Fox Sports, in about 2000. I'm guessing that St. Peter took over in about 2003. . . .maybe it is time for a change. In my old roll-o-dex of baseball contacts I have Dave St. Peter's card listing him as Director of Communications. Was Andy McPhail, Terry Ryan, or Bill Smith ever anything more than Baseball GM. Personally, I like Pohlad's blunt talk. . .as a baseball fan baseball is always an "optimistic" pastime to watch. . . Spring comes every year. . . I discovered Twins Daily this year during Spring Training and now it is a daily read along with MILB.com . . . . I've posted a few times when I beleive that I have knowledge that might be insightful. . . .one thing I've noticed on these posts is, in general, how optimistic the posters are aout, what I would call, the so call "ease" of advancing thru the minors to to MLB. Jim Pohlad is right when he says, "They are not players until they are here" (Paraphrase)
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Article: An All-Star Showing from the Twins
Lakeside replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed, but don't forget the Twins have an over 50 year tie with Minnesota and the Upper Midwest in branding, history, etc. That leads to tons of loyalty. Tampa Bay is about half of that and many Tampa people are transplants with other team loyalties. I think, in general, one of professional sports big challenges is to get the young people to be fans. . . just the fact that they have so much to do begs the question, "Will they continue to spend on pro sports as the generation before them has?" -
OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.
Lakeside replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
OF of the future could include Kvasnika. He seems to be regaining the confidence he had when at the U of M. Switch-hitter, corner outfielder. . .he is the long-shot who could possibly help in late 2015 or 2016. While I have not seen him personally, Harrison at FTM also sounds like someone who could be a surprise as a corner outfielder in time. Long way away though. -
OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.
Lakeside replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
There is no right answer on this question but there are several sides. I agree with you, but my points are these: 1) Dozier has about 5 years of team control left. . he has one year of pre-arbitration left. To many teams (exclude the Dogers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc) those are important features, which as time goes on have lower value to the acquiring team. 2) IMO the Twins have more than one future 2B (excess inventory). So 2B is a position we can trade someone (for a need)and still be solid. 3) Since 2012 when he went to AAA, Dozier has never hit well - .241 MLB average and .311OBP as compared to AA and lower .298BA and .370 OBP. If he stops hitting HR's what is his value as a .241 hitting 2B as compared to his "potential" value now. 4) That's the "rub" in a popular player trade. . . do you bet on his "upside" or his "downside". 5) If Dozier continues as is. . I like him, pencil him into the #5 hole as a 30HR guy and .250 hitter. If he doesn't continue as is, the question is "could we have gotten something better for him when he was a "potential" forever 30HR guy? 6) Dozier reminds me of Davey Johnson (Orioles/Braves) who hit 136 homers in a 13 year career (10 HR/year) but had one season in which he hit 43. Again, no right or wrong answers here, but from my point of view with Rosario, Polanco, etc. (your term- vialble replacements) I would prefer to get a consensus 20HR - .270 hitter corner outfileder for Dozier at this time. This is why GM's in baseball get paid a lot/don't always last long. . . tough decisions. -
OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.
Lakeside replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
How about Allan Craig (Cardinals) in RF. Cardinals are looking to move him with Tavares coming up. . . .Can Dozier continue to hit HR's at his current pace. If he does, a long0term contract with $$$$ may be an issue for the Twins. We have middle infielders Santana, Polanco, Michael, and Rosario in the minors to cover 2B. . How about a trade of Dozier for Craig and a pitching prospect? Dozier's value may never be higher and Craig's lower (off year . . looking for room for Tavares). -
OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.
Lakeside replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Don't get me wrong because I like Fuld, but last I looked he was hitting .269. He does play a good CF and gives you speed at the bottom of the order. I'm suggesting he is the CF until Buxton arrives. Santana--if we have Buxton, is Santana not a shortstop and should we just start playing him there. Arcia--like the raw power, like the enthusiasm, can he play consistently at the MLB level is the question that has to be asked. I say give him some time because he has succeeded at every other level. Plouffe--if Sano is the 3B of the future. . . do we move him (Flouffe) to OF. Plouffe has talent but drives me crazy with his "streaky" play. Hicks--talented. . need to be careful we don't "Gomez" him and give up on him just as he matures and understands what has to be done. I think Hicks has a MLB future. Rosario--generally has hit everywhere. . .having some troubles this year. . but his past indicates he will hit in MLB Parmelee--showing promise. . . but a little like Plouffe in that he is streaky. . . when's the last time he hit a HR? Colabello--Is he a MLB hitter. . we should know at the end of this season. . plus he will be 31. Don't thik he will be with us next year. Willingham--taking for granted that he will be moved this July Morales-see Willingham Nunez--can play outfield okay and all infield positions, plus he can hit, which IMO makes him a great player to carry on the roster. Here's my take for the "end" of the 2015 Season. . . 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Santana 3B-Sano (if not then Escobar/Nunez) LF-Plouffe/Rosario/Hicks CF-Buxton/Fuld RF-Arcia/Parmelee/Hicks C-Pinto DH-Vargas *This does not address any trades, which may be coming. . We have some good infield prospects in the low minors that could bring a MLB hitter to this fold. *This line-up is truly HR power hitting challenged especially if Sano is not ready. We will save about $28 million annually if Willingham, Correia, Suzuki, Burton, Morales are gone. I'm pretty bullish that our SP will be improving with Meyer and Mays. So, my question is, How do we spend that $28M that will help us scoring more runs? -
My take for what it's worth is that Correia will be dealt by August 1. His last 10-11 starts he has had an ERA of about 3.30 and a WHIP of less than 1.25 so he has built up some value. He is also sturdy as he has missed very few, if any, starts in his two years with the Twins. Some team will give up something for this type of 4/5 starter the last 60 games down the stretch. Because he will be a free agent and does not fit into the Twins plans post 2014 this is a move the team will make. Twins starters will soon be Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco (Deduno for now) May, and possibly Johnson/Darnell (or Deduno if Nolasco is healthy). I don't beleive that they will add Meyer to the 40 man until next year. Rochester starters will be Darnell, Meyer, Hamburger, Pino, and Johnson (once Nolasco is healthy.) Going North in 2015 we will start with a rotation of Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May, and Meyer. The elephant in the room is Nolasco's injury/arm. If for some reason it is worse than we have been led to beleive and he needs surgery,etc., AND the Twins believe that they can contend in 2015, then they may try to extend Correia for one more year to hold that spot in the rotation.
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Article: Adam Walker: Power and Potential
Lakeside replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I wasn't picking Kepler over Walker or vice-versa. . just asking the question. I agree that the difference in age is a non-issue. Making a MLB roster in this day and age is a marathon and not a sprint. . . I simply was wondering what the readers think of the question. . Walker vs. Kepler? -
Article: Adam Walker: Power and Potential
Lakeside replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I believe in the "Potential" of Walker. He has a strikeout pct of 27% in an A league. . . that's pretty high. I also believe like one poster said, "He has the ability to crush mistakes". . . That's a real positive. He certainly is one to continue watching and give every chance. . True HR hitters are hard to find and can change the game in an instant. My question, in changing the topic just a little, who has a better chance of being a regular MLB player. . Walker or Max Kepler?? I've never seen Walker in person but have seen Kepler. . . he has the swing to be a big HR hitter at some point. . Also, I think he could be placed at 1B or the OF. . .and he is over a year younger than Walker. -
If Collabello (31 yrs old next Spring) doesn't hit in this call up. . will he be outrighted by Sept 1 (remember they offered him to a Korean team for $1M) and either Rodriguez or Romero given a shot for 30 games in September before they become minor league Free Agents?
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1) Like the catchers - Turner, Garver, and Hermann as a 3rd (plus utility player. . if he ever hits at the ML level. Add in Pinto and I think we have a potential starter somewhere in the three (Turner, Garver, Pinto) 2) Chad Christianson. . solid. . reminds me of the Cardinals Allen Craig when I saw him in the Northwoods League. . multiple positions. . Craig had more power tho. . .if Christianson gets close to him, he certainly can find a place in MLB at somepoint. 3) Rodriguez, Romero. . .they are both 6 year minor players so I believe they can be free agents after this season if not on the 40-man. Rodriguez will be 29, Romero 28 next season. . . .if Collabello (31 next season) doesn't hit in this trip up. . . will one of them be added to the 40-man and replace him in September to see what they can do???
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I'm not a huge Kevin Correia fan but it is my opinion that he has done what the FO asked him to do. . .give us a start every 5th day. Last year he was not to be the ace. . that was supposed to be Worley and Diamond. This year he was not to be the ace that was Nolasco followed by Hughes. Ten million - two years was fair and the Twins got what they paid for on the Free Agent market. The key, however, is not having to pay $5M/year for the performance we have had from Correia. . .it would be best if we could get a 4.50 ERA/1.4WHIP from a pre-arbitration guy at less than $500k and then have some big money for some bats that we need. Those $500k guys are Meyer, May, Gibson, etc. IMO far worse than Correia has been the signing of Mike Pelfrey. $11M/Two years after last season's medicore season is beyond me. And, Nolasco has to be figured out to pay off. I'm guessing that Correia will be dealt at the trade deadline for a A or AA player with some potential. In that case he has been a serviceable "rent-a-player" for two years.
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Don't want to argue with you. . . just my opinion. . but I've been there with this type of situaton. Consider Burdi does not know his teammates, he's 21 years old, wanting to impress, has never pitched in pro ball, etc. I understand he closed in the CWS, but every experience is new for these kids. What you are trying to do, IMO, in this type of situation is build poise and confidence in your first outing. You see this many times, all the way from the American Legion level to the Major League level. A game when they are trailing is a great time to break in a new pitcher with a new squad. Putting in a new pitcher in this situation (save) can hinder the development in poise and confidence. I'm guessing that he will come back and pitch fine as the Ankiels, Wimmers, Hunts of the world are the exceptions not the rule. Just saying that my way would have been different. . . not that it is always better, just different.
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While Burdi ultimately has to prove himself, I question the field management of using Burdi in this situaton. A Save-like situation (up 4-0 I believe) for his first professional inning after joining a team in the middle of it's season. Many managers would give this type of player an inning in a mop-up role sometime before bringing him in in a somewhat pressure situation for his debut. After 30 years of coaching experience. . . just my thoughts.
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Excited for Mark Hamburger's start tonight. I'm from Minnesota and have followed Hamburger since his HS days in Mounds View. Great story. . . signed at a try-out camp. . he's been in the Bigs. . released. . .caught on with the St. Paul Saints. . .resigned by Twins. . . don't count him out someday being in the rotation. He's a recovering alcoholic and we are all pulling for him. Here is a great interview with him about his situation as given during his time with the Saints last year before theTwins re-signed him. http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/mobi/?p=Wolfson_Mark_Hamburger_trying_to_revive_career_derailed_by_drug_use052213
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Article: Should We Be Worried About Alex Meyer?
Lakeside replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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I don't think it needs to be this wholesale. How about May for Deduno now. Trade Correia to a NL contender in July and get something for him while at that time bringing up Meyer. That puts your rotation at Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer going into August/September. If we can be within 3-4 games at that time we will have a shot. Relievers. . . I'm of the opinion Burton just doesn't have the movement anymore. Replace him with Achter or Tonkin. While Guerrier has experience, maybe Pino would be better. Finally, I beleive that Swarzak still has it and will find it. . .if not, then maybe Pino, Johnson, or Darnell replace him in the long spot. Players. . . I also think the offense will need a little more pop in the stretch. How about Rosario stepping into CF full time with Santana at short?
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Article: Report: Twins Agree to Sign Kendrys Morales
Lakeside replied to neky0801's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Here's my stab at the line-up with Morales (and Fuld) included: against Righthanders 1. Santana - SS 2. Dozier -2B 3. Mauer - 1B (I don't think Morales runs good enough to hit here) 4. Willingham - LF 5. Arica - RF or Morales -DH 6. Plouffe -- 3B 7. Morales-DH or Arcia -RF (Mauer could theoretically be here but Arcia would have to bat 3rd) 8, Suzuki/Pinto - c 9, Fuld - CF We release Kubel and release/clear waivers for Parmelee which leavs a bench of Escobar, Pinto, Nunez, and one of these 3 tighhanded hitting outfielders from the minors (Ortiz, Wilkins, Rodriguez). Pinto catches some against righties and DH's against lefthanders. Leaves Escobar and Nunez as late inning defense replacements at SS. Pitching: need to replace Correia with May, eventuall get Meyer up. Relief pitching we need to replace Burton with Tonkin or Presley and we are set. -
I think you have to eventually get rid of Kubel, Colabello, and Hicks. . . you just cannot have guys striking out 35% of their at bats and think you can win with offense. Eventually I think Plouffe could be a corner outfielder with Parmelee and or Arcia. Vargas has hit at every level ala Revere and will hit in the majors . . . he should be up soon and be the everyday DH Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Sano, Plouffe, Buxton, Parmelee, Pinto and Vargas is the nucleus for the next three years with Rosario, Hicks, Nunez, Arcia figured in their somewhere. Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, Mays, and one other will be the starting pitching nucleus. I look at Nolasco as a trade deadline candidate either this year or next year to make room for these pitchers. Correiea will be a trade deadline transfer this year. Young kids get stuck in the minors partly because of the free agency timing period. The Twins under Ryan, as compared to McPhail, keep kids down way longer because of this. Viola, for instance, came up on a team much like this years and learned after only 156 innings in the minor leagues. . . Gibson had 425, May has 677, and Meyer already about 250. Time to get 'em up.

