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longstrangetrip

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Everything posted by longstrangetrip

  1. longstrangetrip
    What a slugger, and what a lovely man...I was lucky to meet him a couple times in his later years when he visited our breakfast club. I proudly still wear No. 3 when I play in my Dodgertown Senior Men's League. Oh how I wish the Killer was in the 4 hole for us today!
  2. longstrangetrip
    You gotta love our rotation compared to last year...tough to remember we came into last year with Worley, Correia, Pelfrey (recovering from TJ), Hendricks and DeVries...Ouch! What I like about today's lineup: Dozier leading off...he's had good success against Sale. Colabello starting over Kubel. What I don't like: Suzuki in the 2 hole. Willingham batting cleanup...I recognize there aren't many options, but man he was clueless in spring training, and he hits .176 with 10 K's in 17 ABs against Sale. Florimon starting ahead of Escobar against a LHP, especially when he doesn't seem ready after his appendectomy.
  3. longstrangetrip
    Ha! Let's hope they can jump out of the box at least as quickly this year. All seriousness aside, though, do others share my belief that we have the potential to be stronger against lefties this year than recent years? And ideally what lineup would you like to see Gardy put out there against LHP? Okay, this is a pre-post edit, because I went back to check Twins splits in recent years. I'm not sure why I have this impression that they don't do well against lefties, because the splits in recent years have been relatively equal. I must be living in the past.
  4. longstrangetrip
    Thanks for that, JB...I incorrectly had Danks as one of the first three starters. I still think Gardy has potential to field better lineups against LHP than he had in the past.
  5. longstrangetrip
    A quick start to the season can mean a lot and provide some promise for a good season. At least that is what I have heard...it's been awhile:). This year the Twins start out in Chicago against three lefties. That traditionally has been a prescription for disaster for our boys, but I see it as opportunity with our 2014 roster. Gone are the days where lefties will be much tougher on us than righties. Three of our starters (Dozier, Hicks, and Plouffe) hit much better against lefties, Dozier being the most extreme with an OPS last year of .978 compared to .649 against RHP. Three of our starters (Mauer, Willingham and Suzuki) have no significant difference in OPS against righties and lefties. Left-handed hitting Arcia is 100 points lower in OPS against lefties, but hopefully will be more disciplined this year. That leaves SS and DH. Escobar's OPS against lefties is 200 points higher than Florimon's, and that fact combined with Florimon still not being fully recovered from surgery should lead to Escobar getting at least two of those three starts. We don't know who will make the final roster out of Kubel, Colabello and Parmalee, but the sad fact is that none of them (even RHB Colabello) hit lefties at all. This tells me that Gardy needs to look at Pinto for at least two of the first three starts at DH. The good news is we should be able to field lineups that hit LHP better than previous squads. I'm optimistic about the first three games if Gardy makes the right choice and goes with Escobar and Pinto.
  6. longstrangetrip
    You are correct about last year, USAF...5 "starters" (including Worley, Devries and Hendricks...ouch!) and 7 relievers went north. But in 2012 they broke camp with 4 starters (Pavano, Liriano, Hendricks and Blackburn) and 8 relievers. Gardy could go either way this year.
  7. longstrangetrip
    Maybe, or with the first 15 games being played in cold weather cities in this weird weather year, with rain/snow outs maybe they won't need a 5th starter at all the first three weeks. I'm just trying to figure out why Gardy had a conniption fit when LaVelle named Gibson as the 5th starter. The only statement the Twins have made is that Deduno will start the season in the BP, and the writers built a scenario around that. Makes it uncomfortable if they have to tell Gibson he is actually going down. I don't know what is going to happen, but I do know this. Gardy likes a big bullpen, especially in the early going when pitchers aren't fully stretched out yet, and I don't know the last time he has had only 7 to work with. Seems like enough to me, but Gardy sees a bullpen differently than I do. Secondly, I'm not sure they want Gibson sitting on the bench with a chance of starting one time before April 20 when he can be getting regular work down in Rochester. They could shuttle him on April 6, if needed, and then consider promoting him on the 20th. We'll have to see how this plays out.
  8. longstrangetrip
    It's really difficult to say. He appears to have all the tools to be close to a 20-20 guy with plus defense, but his time in the majors hasn't been stellar to date. If I were calling the shots, there would be no question about starting the season with Hicks in CF. Gardy, on the other hand, really seems to be trying to make a case for "not Hicks" to be the starting CF. Anybody else sense this? The last two days Gardy has made a point to single out Hicks' flaws. Yesterday it was a missed cutoff man, and today it was at least one missed sign. I don't like that critical side of Gardy...I'd prefer that he be building up Aaron's confidence rather than tearing it down.
  9. longstrangetrip
    I'm starting to see why Gardy was so angry at LaVelle for tweeting that Gibson was going to be the 5th starter. I'm starting to see a different conclusion here. I seems to me that the only thing that has been announced is that Deduno is going to start the year in the bullpen. With Gardy saying today that they're only going to carry 12 pitchers, it seems they may not think they need to carry a 5th starter in the early weeks because of the off dates. They can always do the Rochester shuttle when they finally need a 5th. If that means Gibson can stay sharp starting at Rochester, that's probably good news.
  10. longstrangetrip
    I love the optimism in this thread, provided Diamond doesn't slip into that 5th spot. My initial reaction to Sammy going into the pen was mixed, because he was my favorite Twin last year...I love seeing opposing hitters shaking their heads going back to the dugout after another weak roller. But I like Gibson and he has thrown well this spring. He deserves a shot. Frankly, 5th starters don't get that many starts early in the season with the built-in off days, so Deduno may actually get more opportunity to show off his funky movement out of the pen. It's difficult as a fan to cheer for a long reliever to come into the game though, because it means our starter has been shelled. Anyway, as others have pointed out, the real message here is the impressive depth in starting pitching. Rotations just don't stay intact for a season...things happen. But now, rather than PJ Walters and Liam Hendricks lurking as potential fifth starters, we have Deduno and Meyer. What a positive development!
  11. longstrangetrip
    I enjoyed Phil Miller's article about Suzuki, and it made me like him more. And it seems that with so many pitchers praising him publicly, the die is cast for Kurt catching the majority of games this year. I hope he hits a little. To me, choosing to go with a veteran catcher over a prospect would be a good move if we were in "win now" mode...but we're not. Since this team is a couple years away from contending, isn't it a better idea to have Pinto catching 75% of the games at the major league level (while sitting next to Suzuki in the dugout) to make his transition to every day catcher more rapid? I understand the pitchers want a veteran back there, but as others have pointed out, our pitching staff is made up of veterans. We need Pinto to be a veteran in a couple years when Stewart, Meyer et al are making their debuts, and he's not going to become a veteran playing at Rochester.
  12. longstrangetrip
    Gardy and Andy love Mike Pelfrey, and TK said a couple weeks ago he expected a big season from the big guy this year, so I don't think they think of him as #5. I suspect that Gibson/Deduno/Diamond get skipped early in the year when #5 isn't needed. But eventually #5 will be determined by this year's performance, and I predict Correia is the 5th starter by the middle of May.
  13. longstrangetrip
    Who do you guys move him ahead of? Edit: Perhaps Deduno's rocky outing today puts him in the bullpen to start the season, paving the way for Gibson to start. I guess my preference still would be for Gibson to start the season ay Rochester, and give the #5 spot to Sam.
  14. longstrangetrip
    Ha, I agree with both of you...but sometimes major league managers act in a way they are expected to, not in the way they should.
  15. longstrangetrip
    Really heartening to see Gibson have so much success this spring. Almost zero chance for him to be in the rotation with so many guys out of options, but very good news for the future. I see him in the rotation, either due to injury or trade.
  16. longstrangetrip
    I'm a huge Deduno supporter and hope that he can hold off Diamond for the 5th spot. His results this spring and last season have clearly been better than Scott's, but Diamond wins if Gardy/Anderson decide they need a lefty in the rotation. I had the pleasure of seeing Sam live last season at the Big A, and I have never seen so many weak rollers back to the mound. Or so many hitters walking back to the dugout shaking their heads. The funky late movement on his ball makes it almost impossible to square up against him when he is on. Deduno is unusual among major league pitchers. Most pitchers live on the corners, and their catchers usually set up on the outside or inside corner. This approach didn't work with Sammy, and resulted in way too many walks. I have noticed that his catcher now generally sets up right down the middle, and allows the inherent movement to wreak its havoc. This has resulted in a reduced K rate, but also a reduced BB rate, and much improved results. I don't find it preposterous to say Deduno could be our most effective starter this year
  17. longstrangetrip
    Really good report, Thrylos. We seem to be as loaded with future + young pitchers as we have ever been, and it's going to be fun to watch these guys develop. If many of them pan out and we continue to have great pitching depth, it's going to put us in a strong dealing position as we become more competitive in 2-3 years. Exciting pitching prospects can bring us the kind of player who can take us to a WS, if we find ourselves in that position mid-summer in a few years.
  18. longstrangetrip
    I don't have a huge problem with the decision to go with Suzuki, and I've been expecting it. But my preference would be to give the starting C role to Pinto. To me, the likely delta in offensive performance trumps the perceived difference in defensive ability, and is certainly more easily measured. Parker, thanks for throwing some cold water on Suzuki's reputation as a great defensive catcher. I have been skeptical also, and think much of his reputation has to do with having spent some time in pitcher-friendly Oakland. Two points brought up in support of Suzuki are overrated in my opinion: 1) the Redmond factor. Mackey talks about Suzuki having the potential to be a vocal leader and cites Mike Redmond as an example. This ignores the fact that Redmond did most of his vocal leadership from the dugout, having seldom been a starting catcher. Suzuki could play this role too from the dugout. 2) game calling. My opinion is that this is overrated also. The Twins have primarily a veteran staff now, and they are going to shake off a sign they don't agree with...whether it's Suzuki or Pinto giving it. Also, a lot of game calling happens before the game and in the dugout between innings. Anderson is talking with the pitcher and catcher about tendencies of the batters due up, and it doesn't take a genius to implement this in the subsequent inning. As I said, I'm not going to lose sleep over the decision to go with Suzuki. But I believe the defensive differences are overstated, and the Twins could certainly use Pinto's pop in the lineup.
  19. longstrangetrip
    I'm not saying that the Twins rotation will be dominant this year, but they certainly are deeper than any recent year I can remember. Having multiple options for the 4th and 5th starters gives them the luxury of trades to teams more desperate for starting pitching. My instinct is to delay any trades until mid-summer, when a guy like Correia might seem very attractive to a contender with a beat-up staff. The only problem with that strategy is my concern that Correia's good season last year might have been a mirage. Pitchers don't usually improve when they migrate to the American League. But maybe his improved numbers have something to do with pitching at TF. I guess I would be open to trading Correia now if the return were very attractive. Absent that, I would prefer to wait until mid-summer.
  20. longstrangetrip
    Good point, snepp. And my son tells me he's naturally a RHB too. Hard to explain the flip flop in splits since he hit the majors, but the results are dramatic. Visually he looks bad at the plate as a RHB to me also. I guess the brass is being patient with him because of his success from the right in the minors. His defense is good enough that I'm willing to accept the poor hitting...but I still think they ought to closely monitor the switch hitting.
  21. longstrangetrip
    Yeah, not great...but maybe about average for a SS. .665 would have him on par with Zach Cosart and Elvis Andrus...certainly satisfactory when you pair that with top 5 defensive stats. But .450 is ridiculous. To put it in perspective, the worst OPS for shortstops with more than 100 ABs last year was Ruben Tejada at .519. And Pedro is .069 worse than that.
  22. longstrangetrip
    First of all, I think of shortstop as primarily a defensive position, and Florimon more than fills the bill there. His range factor (RF) last year was 5.59, easily the best in baseball, and his DWAR of 2.2 was the second best. But his hitting from the right side is a big problem. I don't know that I have ever seen such a big differential in switch hitting splits: BA HR OPS RHB .176 0 .450 LHB .236 9 .665 .215 is a huge differential in OPS, and it begs the question why the Twins would allow Pedro to continue to hit from the right side. I recognize that his left handed hitting would likely not be as strong against left-handed pitching, but I can't believe it would plummet to the level of his right handed hitting. Florimon showed surprising pop from the left side last year with 9 HRs, and LaVelle says he has added 10 pounds of muscle to his frame during the offseason. But he has never homered from the right side of the plate. The Twins should either talk Florimon out of switch hitting, or bench him against lefties if he continues to struggle against them. We need his defense, but can't afford another .450 OPS from the right.
  23. longstrangetrip
    I agree with you, and am becoming increasingly concerned that a case is being made to install Diamond as the 5th starter, and relegate Deduno to the bullpen. I think this would be a mistake. But Gardy and Anderson are traditionalists, and traditional baseball thought says you need at least one lefty in your rotation. I don't agree, and kind of hope Diamond gets shelled his next start to force them to put Deduno in the rotation. I think he's poised for a big year.
  24. longstrangetrip
    I just registered and am looking forward to participating in this great forum. I stumbled on it last summer and followed it mostly to keep up on our interesting prospects. I found it to be one of the most knowledgeable sports boards I have seen. I am a long-time Twins fan...fortunate to have been at all three WS Game Sevens (the 1965 loss to Koufax and the Dodgers can be watched in its entirety on youtube!). I was a season ticket holder for 2 years at Target Field, but since my move to Los Angeles, I get my Twins fix on MLB League Pass and infrequent trips to the Big A. Glad to be here!
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