James Richter

Here's something I noticed: 1st time through the order he allowed 3 BB and a HBP (.444 OBP) with 1 K and only 16 of 37 pitches for strikes (43%). Over the next 13 PA he allowed 3 H and 1 BB (.308 OBP) with 3 K and 31 of 49 pitches for strikes (63%). He started 8 of those 13 PA with strike one. The HR was a cookie, but the single was a grounder through the left side and Longoria's double off the catwalk might just have been a can of corn in another park. I think they should have sent him back out there for the 6th.

Career Minor league PA and OPS for: Revere: 1668, .788 Benson: 2431, .797 Hicks: 1603, .786 Denard Span: 2428, .711 Michael Cuddyer: 2912, .868

On April 16th, 2000, I went to the Dome to see the Twins take on the Orioles. Joe Mays vs. Sidney Ponson - what an auspicious pitching matchup that was! Mays took the mound and proceeded to lose the game with dizzying speed. Homer, single, double, 2-run single, groundout, 2-run homer. 6 batters and 20 pitches into the game, he’d allowed 5 ER on 5 H. Undoubtedly, someone was up in the bullpen. Perhaps there were some derisive cheers when TK walked out to the mound. After all, this was even worse than Mays’ previous start, when he gave up 7 ER on 4 H and 4 BB in 1.1 IP. To that point in the young season he had allowed 17 ER on 17 H (3 HR) and 4 BB, an 18.37 ERA. We were all justified in thinking that Mays sucked. He would have been justified in feeling that way about himself. But after a short conversation, TK walked back to the dugout without taking the ball. I don’t know what was said, but the message I got in the bleachers was something like, “Joe, I’m not going to let you abuse this bullpen any more. You’re going to stay out here for 100 pitches. You can keep letting them smack you around the field, or you can make an adjustment and compete. You’re a big league pitcher, and we expect you to get outs. Now go do your job.” To my amazement, Mays went on to complete the next 7.2 IP in just 86 pitches, scattering 3 H and 0 BB while striking out 7. While he continued to take his lumps throughout his 2nd MLB season - 6 of his subsequent 25 GS were clunkers - for me this game came to symbolize a turning point for Mays. Injuries would soon erode his mediocre stuff to the point that he was hopeless. But from the moment of that mound visit to the end of the 2002 regular season, he averaged about 6.1 IP/GS with a 4.14 ERA. (If you give him a mulligan on April 2002, when he was clearly trying to pitch through injury, things look even better.) That’s pretty similar value to what Carl Pavano has given the Twins. Mays’ upside was back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but he needed a kick in the pants to reach his potential. Which brings us to Francisco Liriano. His first three starts have been every bit as horrid as Mays’ in 2000. Unlike Mays, he has the stuff to be elite. He had a brilliant spring, and looked awesome mowing down the side in order in his first inning in Baltimore. Then a good hitter hit a good pitch out of the park, and the wheels came off. It’s a shame that Liriano’s self-confidence is so brittle that it could be shattered with one swing. But it’s inexcusable that the Twins should have enabled his downward spiral by taking him out so early that day. The WHIP looked terrible, but several of the hits were balls the IF got leather on. The last hit he allowed was a little jam-shot blooper. They weren’t exactly knocking him around the field. But he was out after 4 IP and just 74 pitches. If Valencia hadn’t clanged that 2-out “double” (which another scorer might have ruled an error), Liriano would have allowed just 3 ER in those 4 IP with only 65 pitches. Either way, would they have pulled Pavano from that game? Or Blackburn? I doubt it. And I bet we’ll find over the next couple of months that they won’t pull Marquis from that game, either. How about the second start against the Angels? Liriano had one bad inning, then got on a roll over which he retired 10 of 11 batters. He walked the guy who had taken him into the 2nd deck, then gave up a one-armed double just fair down the line on a pretty decent 1-2 changeup. At 91 pitches, with the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the next inning, he was pulled. Would any of the other starters have been pulled under those circumstances? By yanking Liriano so early in these games, Gardy has sent the message that he doesn’t believe Frankie can get anybody else out. Liriano seems to have gotten the message. He has pitched progressively worse over his 3 GS - he was legitimately putrid against the Yankees, like he was scared to throw the ball over the plate. His manager’s blatant lack of confidence in him can’t be helping. That has to change. Liriano needs to make friends with the fear. His next bullpen session should go something like . Do what TK did, Gardy. Take away the net. On Sunday morning in Tampa, tell Liriano that he’s going to throw 7 innings. He can do it in 90 pitches or 150, but he’s not coming out of there until he gets at least 21 outs. Maybe that will get him attacking hitters again. It worked for Mays. Tough love - . See what happens. Maybe it will make Liriano better. I don't see how it could make him any worse.

On April 16th, 2000, I went to the Dome to see the Twins take on the Orioles. Joe Mays vs. Sidney Ponson - what an auspicious pitching matchup that was! Mays took the mound and proceeded to lose the game with dizzying speed. Homer, single, double, 2-run single, groundout, 2-run homer. 6 batters and 20 pitches into the game, he’d allowed 5 ER on 5 H. Undoubtedly, someone was up in the bullpen. Perhaps there were some derisive cheers when TK walked out to the mound. After all, this was even worse than Mays’ previous start, when he gave up 7 ER on 4 H and 4 BB in 1.1 IP. To that point in the young season he had allowed 17 ER on 17 H (3 HR) and 4 BB, an 18.37 ERA. We were all justified in thinking that Mays sucked. He would have been justified in feeling that way about himself. But after a short conversation, TK walked back to the dugout without taking the ball. I don’t know what was said, but the message I got in the bleachers was something like, “Joe, I’m not going to let you abuse this bullpen any more. You’re going to stay out here for 100 pitches. You can keep letting them smack you around the field, or you can make an adjustment and compete. You’re a big league pitcher, and we expect you to get outs. Now go do your job.” To my amazement, Mays went on to complete the next 7.2 IP in just 86 pitches, scattering 3 H and 0 BB while striking out 7. While he continued to take his lumps throughout his 2nd MLB season - 6 of his subsequent 25 GS were clunkers - for me this game came to symbolize a turning point for Mays. Injuries would soon erode his mediocre stuff to the point that he was hopeless. But from the moment of that mound visit to the end of the 2002 regular season, he averaged about 6.1 IP/GS with a 4.14 ERA. (If you give him a mulligan on April 2002, when he was clearly trying to pitch through injury, things look even better.) That’s pretty similar value to what Carl Pavano has given the Twins. Mays’ upside was back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but he needed a kick in the pants to reach his potential. Which brings us to Francisco Liriano. His first three starts have been every bit as horrid as Mays’ in 2000. Unlike Mays, he has the stuff to be elite. He had a brilliant spring, and looked awesome mowing down the side in order in his first inning in Baltimore. Then a good hitter hit a good pitch out of the park, and the wheels came off. It’s a shame that Liriano’s self-confidence is so brittle that it could be shattered with one swing. But it’s inexcusable that the Twins should have enabled his downward spiral by taking him out so early that day. The WHIP looked terrible, but several of the hits were balls the IF got leather on. The last hit he allowed was a little jam-shot blooper. They weren’t exactly knocking him around the field. But he was out after 4 IP and just 74 pitches. If Valencia hadn’t clanged that 2-out “double” (which another scorer might have ruled an error), Liriano would have allowed just 3 ER in those 4 IP with only 65 pitches. Either way, would they have pulled Pavano from that game? Or Blackburn? I doubt it. And I bet we’ll find over the next couple of months that they won’t pull Marquis from that game, either. How about the second start against the Angels? Liriano had one bad inning, then got on a roll over which he retired 10 of 11 batters. He walked the guy who had taken him into the 2nd deck, then gave up a one-armed double just fair down the line on a pretty decent 1-2 changeup. At 91 pitches, with the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the next inning, he was pulled. Would any of the other starters have been pulled under those circumstances? By yanking Liriano so early in these games, Gardy has sent the message that he doesn’t believe Frankie can get anybody else out. Liriano seems to have gotten the message. He has pitched progressively worse over his 3 GS - he was legitimately putrid against the Yankees, like he was scared to throw the ball over the plate. His manager’s blatant lack of confidence in him can’t be helping. That has to change. Liriano needs to make friends with the fear. His next bullpen session should go something like . Do what TK did, Gardy. Take away the net. On Sunday morning in Tampa, tell Liriano that he’s going to throw 7 innings. He can do it in 90 pitches or 150, but he’s not coming out of there until he gets at least 21 outs. Maybe that will get him attacking hitters again. It worked for Mays. Tough love - . See what happens. Maybe it will make Liriano better. I don't see how it could make him any worse.

Yeah, that would have been a good idea. It probably would have negated the need to do the Delmon trade. So the 2008 team would have had Kemp get all of Delmon's playing time, Span all year instead of Gomez, Bartlett instead of Adam Everett. That's a roster that would have won the Central cleanly, then gone into the playoffs with a rotation of Garza, Baker, Liriano and Blackburn. Oh, well. Still, we can't be sure how tangible that rumor really was. For me, Smith's biggest blunder was putting Breslow on waivers.

The new CBA and the Twins' multitude of top-75 picks basically locks them into spending 8 figures on the draft this summer. If you combine that spending with the $100M-ish figure (which accurately includes the money going to Nishi and Marquis) and compare it to 2011's total spending on the MLB payroll and the draft, the cut for this year looks a lot more modest. If they manage the middle-of-the-pack finish this year that a lot of us are expecting, their 2013 draft spending will be considerably less. Just maintaining the total MLB/draft spending for 2013 at the same level as 2011-2012 should see the payroll climb to around $110M. Assuming they're prudent enough to decline their options on Baker and Capps, that would give them $35M+ to spend on free agents. They'll need 3 starters and a couple of relievers, but the projected crop at those positions looks very favorable. I doubt they'll bid on Cole Hamels, but a couple of solid 2nd-tier options (Brandon McCarthy, Shaun Marcum, Colby Lewis, etc.) should be well within their means.

That's how I read it, too. Even this time next week would be awfully early to start projecting trends with these guys. Give them at least 100 PA.

I can empathize with anyone who finds the 1st four games of 2012 disturbingly similar to the last 2 months of 2011. However, we need to keep perspective on how unsustainable this poor play is. For example: Our team has a BABIP of .183, compared to the AL rate of .271. Last year, the worst rate in the league was .280. The Twins have the fewest baserunners in the AL (33) but have hit into the most double plays (7). Hard to do. Over 21% of the Twins' baserunners have been eliminated on DPs. For the AL as a whole, the rate is less than 8%. The pitcher's Left On Base % is under 65%, 2nd worst in the AL. Average is about 73%. The worst full-season rate in 2011 was the Twins' 69%. Even if the Twins continue to play poorly, those numbers are bound to get better, which will inevitably result in more RS and fewer RA. Which should result in some wins.

In the 4th, Liriano gave up a walk, a grounder Valencia should have fielded, another grounder Valencia and Willingham should have fielded, then a jam-shot blooper. I know they count as hits in the box score, but why should Frankie have to get pulled after 4 IP just because his "defense" can't catch the ball?

Liriano will get Cy Young votes. The defense gives up 55 or fewer unearned runs. The Twins will score more runs than they allow. They will be in position to buy at the trade deadline, but Ryan won't be willing to dip into his surplus of OF in order to bring in the stud SP they need.

I like that they're challenging him. I doon't think of the AFL as a small sample size. Instead, I include it in the larger sample size. Combining the AFL with A+ gives Hicks a .251/.361/.404 line over nearly 650 PA in 2011. The average FSL player had a .716 OPS last year. Hicks' .959 OPS in the AFL was 13th best in the league, 7th best among players with more than 100 PA. It's a hitters league, but he was less experienced than most of the guys in it and he showed he could be dominant. If he falls on his face at AA, they can always bust him back to Fort Myers for a little while like they did with Parmelee and Benson. That seems to have worked out OK.

Is Vasquez going to start? I'm still hoping Gray winds up filling a slot in that rotation (not in the Twins' bullpen). Anyway, it's already a pretty good AAA lineup, and either Parmelee or Revere could still wind up joining it. And I really like the bullpen - at least three of those guys should be able to earn an extended call-up this year. The good people of Rochester should enjoy watching the Redwings a lot more in 2012.

If he throws strikes, he's a top 10 pitcher. And he's throwing strikes.

Morneau's ABs in Thursday's game included a deep fly to left and a lineout to 3rd, as well as a sharp grounder just foul down the 3rd base line. There's three swings that weren't far away from being extra-base hits. Seems like he's trying to go the other way. Parker would know for sure, but isn't that a change in approach from his pull-happy, out-of-whack swing from 2011?

All of those guys would benefit from some time at Rochester. But they'll see their share of action when the veterans hit the DL. And if the Twins find themselves selling at the trade deadline, I would expect August and September to go a lot better this year.

This is exactly right - Willingham has to go before Span does. Money guaranteed Willingham through 2014: $21M. Money guaranteed Span: $14.75M. Willingham might not return as much, but Span will probably provide more value, and Benson should more than make up for Willingham in all facets of the game. Or, if it looks like Hicks isn't going to put things together, hold onto Willingham and move Revere. They could keep Revere as the 4th OF, but he's probably worth more to someone else. I just don't think he's ever going to be as good as Span. Benson and Hicks in RF/CF and Span in LF is my dream OF. So much OBP, such good defense. Get it going, Hicks!

Neither is anybody they'd sign or trade for.

I understand the frustration with the missed opportunities in the RH reliever market this offseason. At this point, though, it would be a mistake to pay anything to bring in someone else. Until we see whether guys like Morneau & Liriano can bounce back to their pre-2011 form, we might as well assume that this team can't compete with Detroit. Why give up a good prospect to get Uehara's help for a non-contender? There are guys with upside in camp already. With Zumaya healthy, did you have Anthony Slama making the team? Is there anything in Slama's professional career that suggests he couldn't be a successful high-leverage ROOGY? He's dominated in the minors, and he's held the 21 RH batters he's been allowed to face in MLB to a .510 OPS with 5 K. He's as good a bet to fill that role as anyone, and he'll make the league minimum through 2014. If nobody steps up by the end of camp, there will be decent guys hitting the waiver wire at the end of March. As the season goes on, somebody from AAA might be ready to take over a slot. They could make a trade in July if they're in contention and the bullpen is killing them. But for now, it's best to just wait and see.

I hear you, Teflon. I assumed that the defensive metrics would rate the Twins' range as badly as everything else. But that doesn't seem to be the case. Check out the team defense page on Fangraphs. On comprehensive stats like DRS they look terrible, but just about all of it can be explained by the errors. Where it's broken down by type of defensive play, the Twins look OK. They're within 1% of the median in OOZ. RngR gives them +9.3, but then ErrR takes most of that back. I'll be the first to tell you that the defensive metrics aren't perfect, but I checked a few different systems and they all rated the Twins as decent - except for the errors, of course. Another thing to note on that link is the comparison of the Twins' defense with that of the Tigers. The metrics didn't rate Detroit much better than the Twins, and their range ratings were considerably worse in some cases. And yet their pitchers enjoyed a basically league average .292 BABIP - considerably better than the Twins' .307 mark. Did the Tigers give up fewer line drives? Yes, but the differences in the two teams' batted ball data are pretty insignificant. Sometimes, BABIP is just about whether the ball was hit right at somebody or not. There's no reason to think the Twins will do as poorly on that score in 2012, particularly when Revere and Carroll are factored in.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?247-Baseline-How-bad-are-the-2012-Twins

It's easy to be down on the Twins' prospects for this year. 2011 was in many ways their worst season ever, and the offseason moves by Terry Ryan didn't do much more than maintain the talent level they started with last April. So we must be headed for another dreadful season, right? Not so fast. The Twins allowed 804 runs last year. Their pitching staff was last in the Majors in K/9, 29th in ERA and 29th in WHIP. But they were also last in BABIP, suggesting that things might bounce better for them this year. Their FIP (4.30), xFIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27), though still among the worst in the league, indicate the pitchers deserved better than their 4.60 team ERA. Were they to pitch precisely as poorly in 2012, they could be expected to allow 45 fewer ER over the same number of innings. The defense, somewhat surprisingly, wasn't terrible in terms of range. UZR/150, for example, has them at just -0.4 R for the season. What killed them were errors; they were 28th in errors and fielding %. The 80 unearned runs they allowed were by far the most of the Gardy era. Over the last 10 seasons, they've averaged between 50-60 UER. Cutting back on errors is something the Twins can control, and with the additional emphasis they're placing on fundamentals this spring, I would expect them to reduce their mistakes by about 1/3. Simply replacing the abysmal play they got at SS with Jamey Carroll's excellent career averages at the position would eliminate 19 errors and 13 UER. On the run prevention side of the ledger, if you give the Twins' pitchers a 4.30 ERA over 1450 IP (a roughly league average total), they will allow 693 ER. If you assume that the more focused and slightly upgraded defense will cough up a more typical 55 UER, you get a total of 748 RA. The offensive side is clouded by lingering injury concerns to some key players. But until I hear reports to the contrary, I'm going to assume that everyone is healthy, and therefore ready to contribute at the levels they've established in recent years. The exception is Morneau - I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to return to the MVP-caliber play he displayed before his concussion. Below is a table which builds a simple formulation of runs created: (H+BB-CS)x(TB+.55SB)/(AB+BB). The numbers I'm projecting for the starters are based on the stats from their last 3 healthy seasons, prorated over the number of ABs they racked up in a typical year. Span's averages go from 2008 up to the point of his concussion; Doumit's and Casilla's include 2008 since they missed so many games between 2009-2011. I'm throwing out Mauer's 2011 as an injury aberration and using 2008-2010 instead. With Morneau, I'm also throwing out 2011, but estimating only 75% of his 2008-2010 production over 140 games. I'm only using Major League stats for Valencia and Revere. The starters account for about 77% of the total ABs the Twins had in 2011. The remainder will go to the bench, which I assume will be Butera, Nishioka, Plouffe and Hughes, or similarly unimpressive players. Whoever comes up from Rochester will also be thrown into that pool. I'll give that cast of characters a 23% share of the Punto-esque numbers the Twins hitters as group posted last year (.247/.306/.360). The results: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Player AB H BB TB SB CS RC Span 593 172 68 233 24 7 87 Carroll 410 111 50 141 10 2 51 Mauer 523 178 75 263 2 2 111 Morneau 524 118 55 208 0 0 62 Willingham 471 121 67 226 5 1 80 Doumit 419 118 31 188 2 1 62 Valencia 540 145 38 219 3 4 68 Casilla 317 82 28 112 11 2 37 Revere 450 120 26 139 34 9 45 Subs 1240 307 99 446 24 18 133 Total 5487 1472 537 2175 115 46 729 [/TABLE] 729 runs scored. 748 runs allowed. That differential should result in around 80 wins. With no improvement from the pitching staff, and with Morneau hitting something like .225/.299/.397 over 140 games. From there, the upside is considerable. What if Baker is healthy enough to take Diamond's starts? Subtract 7 ER. Or if Zumaya can apply his 3.05 career ERA to Nathan's 44.2 IP? Subtract 9 ER. What if Revere improves his average to .280? Add 5 RC. What if Morneau is 80% of his former self? Add 8 RC. The 2012 Twins don't look like they're going to be a very good team, but they shouldn't suck, either. As long as they aren't unlucky and can put their best guys on the field about 3/4 of the time, they should be around .500. I wouldn't expect any less of them.

It's easy to be down on the Twins' prospects for this year. 2011 was in many ways their worst season ever, and the offseason moves by Terry Ryan didn't do much more than maintain the talent level they started with last April. So we must be headed for another dreadful season, right? Not so fast. The Twins allowed 804 runs last year. Their pitching staff was last in the Majors in K/9, 29th in ERA and 29th in WHIP. But they were also last in BABIP, suggesting that things might bounce better for them this year. Their FIP (4.30), xFIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27), though still among the worst in the league, indicate the pitchers deserved better than their 4.60 team ERA. Were they to pitch precisely as poorly in 2012, they could be expected to allow 45 fewer ER over the same number of innings. The defense, somewhat surprisingly, wasn't terrible in terms of range. UZR/150, for example, has them at just -0.4 R for the season. What killed them were errors; they were 28th in errors and fielding %. The 80 unearned runs they allowed were by far the most of the Gardy era. Over the last 10 seasons, they've averaged between 50-60 UER. Cutting back on errors is something the Twins can control, and with the additional emphasis they're placing on fundamentals this spring, I would expect them to reduce their mistakes by about 1/3. Simply replacing the abysmal play they got at SS with Jamey Carroll's excellent career averages at the position would eliminate 19 errors and 13 UER. On the run prevention side of the ledger, if you give the Twins' pitchers a 4.30 ERA over 1450 IP (a roughly league average total), they will allow 693 ER. If you assume that the more focused and slightly upgraded defense will cough up a more typical 55 UER, you get a total of 748 RA. The offensive side is clouded by lingering injury concerns to some key players. But until I hear reports to the contrary, I'm going to assume that everyone is healthy, and therefore ready to contribute at the levels they've established in recent years. The exception is Morneau - I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to return to the MVP-caliber play he displayed before his concussion. Below is a table which builds a simple formulation of runs created: (H+BB-CS)x(TB+.55SB)/(AB+BB). The numbers I'm projecting for the starters are based on the stats from their last 3 healthy seasons, prorated over the number of ABs they racked up in a typical year. Span's averages go from 2008 up to the point of his concussion; Doumit's and Casilla's include 2008 since they missed so many games between 2009-2011. I'm throwing out Mauer's 2011 as an injury aberration and using 2008-2010 instead. With Morneau, I'm also throwing out 2011, but estimating only 75% of his 2008-2010 production over 140 games. I'm only using Major League stats for Valencia and Revere. The starters account for about 77% of the total ABs the Twins had in 2011. The remainder will go to the bench, which I assume will be Butera, Nishioka, Plouffe and Hughes, or similarly unimpressive players. Whoever comes up from Rochester will also be thrown into that pool. I'll give that cast of characters a 23% share of the Punto-esque numbers the Twins hitters as group posted last year (.247/.306/.360). The results: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Player AB H BB TB SB CS RC Span 593 172 68 233 24 7 87 Carroll 410 111 50 141 10 2 51 Mauer 523 178 75 263 2 2 111 Morneau 524 118 55 208 0 0 62 Willingham 471 121 67 226 5 1 80 Doumit 419 118 31 188 2 1 62 Valencia 540 145 38 219 3 4 68 Casilla 317 82 28 112 11 2 37 Revere 450 120 26 139 34 9 45 Subs 1240 307 99 446 24 18 133 Total 5487 1472 537 2175 115 46 729 [/TABLE] 729 runs scored. 748 runs allowed. That differential should result in around 80 wins. With no improvement from the pitching staff, and with Morneau hitting something like .225/.299/.397 over 140 games. From there, the upside is considerable. What if Baker is healthy enough to take Diamond's starts? Subtract 7 ER. Or if Zumaya can apply his 3.05 career ERA to Nathan's 44.2 IP? Subtract 9 ER. What if Revere improves his average to .280? Add 5 RC. What if Morneau is 80% of his former self? Add 8 RC. The 2012 Twins don't look like they're going to be a very good team, but they shouldn't suck, either. As long as they aren't unlucky and can put their best guys on the field about 3/4 of the time, they should be around .500. I wouldn't expect any less of them.

I don't see the Twins doing any worse than .500 (unless they have horrendous luck again). Still some growing pains ahead for KC, though they'll be closer to break-even than last year. The White Sox bring up the rear.

I'll take the Twins for 2nd place. You don't have to get pie-in-the-sky at all to project them coming in right around .500. From there, the upside is pretty good. If any good things happen - Liriano remembers how to throw strikes, Ben Revere raises his batting average, Scott Baker makes 30 starts, and so on - the win total could easily get up into the mid 80's. The Indians were pretty lucky to get as many wins as they had last year - they should feel like they've progressed if they match that number in 2012. The Royals will be better overall, but Frenchie and Melky aren't going to be that good again, so I don't see them getting much over .500. The White Sox are the only team in the division that is distinctly worse than last year.