James Richter

Span's been on base constantly this season and only has a handful of SB attempts. They need to be more aggressive in general, but especially when the speed guys are on.

Gladden leaves a lot to be desired as a radio play-by-play guy - he doesn't usually paint a vivid picture of what just happened. But I love how blunt he is when he sees unprofessional conduct on the field. Last night he immediately called out Plouffe's baserunning for not avoiding the tag on that DP. I can't imagine him ever pretending bad play is good. The closest he could come would be not to say anything at all.

I'm not feeling the Nats, either. How about the Rays? They'll need a CF for next year after BJ Upton departs. Span's game should play well on the turf, and he's a Tampa native, so they should like that from a PR standpoint in addition to the cost certainty of his contract. They have a surplus of good starting pitching, a huge need for the Twins, particularly with the injuries to Gibson and Wimmers. How about starting a package around Alex Cobb?

That's a great insight, MileHigh. If they're not going to bother to compete until 2015, there's no point keeping Willingham around, and his contract might make him every bit as appealing as Span. But if they're going to hang onto Willingham and try to build something around him and Mauer over the medium term, then maybe a player like Span has value here. Or trade him for MLB-ready guys who could be under team control through the remainder of Mauer's contract. Let them take their lumps over the next couple seasons so that they're seasoned veterans by the time Sano and co. show up. Remember, the core of the 2002-2004 team started playing together in 1999. The Royals' studs started showing up last year, but they look like they've still got a ways to go. If you're talking about the Twins timing prospects to arrive in 2015, they may not be ready to play well until 2018.

Robertson is a 24-year-old lefty with 18 career IP at AAA. Waaaaaaay too early to throw him away. The obvious substitution is for Gray (not young, RHP, walks too many, so-so stuff) or Walters after Liriano wins back his rotation spot with 3-4 stellar weeks in the 'pen (you're gonna do that, right Frankie?).

With an eye on 2015, this is spot on with one exception: you've got to let go of Willingham. By then there will be somebody homegrown who can hit better than he will at age 36, and most likely field and run the bases better, for less than 1/10th the price.

For a guy as cocky as Valencia, this is a great wake-up call. If he can adjust his approach to the point where he's not getting himself out all the time, he could be useful again (to somebody), at least as the short half of a platoon. I'm also interested to see whether Plouffe can handle 3B better than SS. I see your point on Liriano. But I still think they should have thrown him in the car with the cougar. As long as we're adding marginal pitchers in their late 20's to the roster, when's it going to be Slama's turn?

The majority of the defensive metrics I've seen have rated the Twins' defense as average to slightly above, underscoring Nick's closing point.

Average MLB leadoff hitter: .251/.315/.371 (.686 OPS), 70% SB success rate. In order for Span to score, somebody has to drive him in. As for Benson, I know he's been struggling, but he has nothing left to prove at AA. Good for Florimon, though.

Let's look at this another way: later on in 2006, the Twins enjoyed a 42 game stretch (about 25% of the season) in which they went 34-8. Had that stretch begun with the 1st game of the year instead of the 59th, would you have expected them to keep it up for 162 games, finishing with 130 wins, making them the best team in the history of baseball? I don't think that would have been reasonable. The Orioles are on pace to win 110 games - think that's going to happen? On this date last year, Cleveland was on pace to win 110 games - how'd that turn out? The point is, over a six-month season, teams usually win about the number of games they're supposed to win. This team is not supposed to lose 100 games. They will if they don't play better, but they are talented enough to play better. Demand that they play better, and give them a few more weeks to show that they can. There will be plenty of time to blow things up in July if they don't.

I'll go into this on my own blog in due course, but for now, suffice it to say: Amen.

Nobody should think about selling anything until the last 10 days of July. Anybody within 5 games of a playoff spot at that time can reasonably consider themselves a buyer. The addition of the 2nd Wild Card in each league will greatly expand those ranks. Had that extra berth been available on July 21st last summer, there would have been 18 buyers, 8 sellers, and 4 teams on the bubble (the Twins, at 6 GB, were one of the bubble teams, unfortunately). That's a huge seller's market. Whatever the Twins might get for Span now, I bet they'll get more in a couple months when 5 or 6 teams are bidding on him.

It's important to stress accountability - thanks for that, Nick. You and Seth were right to predict 77-82 wins for this team - that is their actual ability level. For me, there's an important distinction between a team that sucks and a decent team that's playing like ass. You can't blame players that suck for losing - after all, they suck! This team, however, has no business playing as poorly as they have. Step the hell up is right.

Through 25 games: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Year W L GB RS RA Diff BA OBP SLG ERA WHIP HR/9 2006 9 16 9.0 99 156 -57 .251 .309 .366 6.35 1.64 1.56 2012 7 18 7.5 90 139 -49 .246 .312 .362 5.61 1.41 1.59 [/TABLE] Nearly identical offensive performances - the 9 extra runs the 2006 team had were due to some combination of more HR and fewer GIDP. The pitching was even worse back then. As tough as last week’s series in Anaheim was to swallow, how about the sweep the ’06 team suffered in Detroit at the about the same time of year: they were outscored 33-1! Though they had 2 more wins than the current squad, they were buried 1.5 games deeper in the standings thanks to a hot start by the defending champion White Sox. Changes would come to that roster, but not right away. Even while Tony Batista and Juan Castro continued to occupy the left side of the IF and Rondell White took his swings every day, things improved markedly. Over their next 25 games, they went 14-11, hitting .288/.347/.429 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, outscoring their opponents 137-114. Despite that, they dropped to 11.5 GB as Detroit surged to the top of the standings. Two things I’d like people to think about when they see this comparison: 1) The 2012 Twins are no worse than the team that broke camp in 2006, and that team managed to recover to a .460 Win% given a large enough sample of games. This team can do that, too. 25 games is only 15% of the season. 2) Though the sort of upgrades that eventually carried the 2006 team on a historic 71-33 run to finish the season don’t appear to be within reach now, they don’t need to be. 2006 was the toughest AL Central ever, with three teams winning 90 or more games. I’d be surprised if even one team reaches that level this year. The top run differential in the division right now is +2. 6 games under .500 is within 5 games of first place, and that’s close enough to be in the division race and buying at the trade deadline. I don’t think the current is roster is necessarily a contender, but they’re better than they’ve shown, and this is a terrible division. Could we give it another 4 weeks before we start thinking about how to blow this team up?

Through 25 games: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Year W L GB RS RA Diff BA OBP SLG ERA WHIP HR/9 2006 9 16 9.0 99 156 -57 .251 .309 .366 6.35 1.64 1.56 2012 7 18 7.5 90 139 -49 .246 .312 .362 5.61 1.41 1.59 [/TABLE] Nearly identical offensive performances - the 9 extra runs the 2006 team had were due to some combination of more HR and fewer GIDP. The pitching was even worse back then. As tough as last week’s series in Anaheim was to swallow, how about the sweep the ’06 team suffered in Detroit at the about the same time of year: they were outscored 33-1! Though they had 2 more wins than the current squad, they were buried 1.5 games deeper in the standings thanks to a hot start by the defending champion White Sox. Changes would come to that roster, but not right away. Even while Tony Batista and Juan Castro continued to occupy the left side of the IF and Rondell White took his swings every day, things improved markedly. Over their next 25 games, they went 14-11, hitting .288/.347/.429 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, outscoring their opponents 137-114. Despite that, they dropped to 11.5 GB as Detroit surged to the top of the standings. Two things I’d like people to think about when they see this comparison: 1) The 2012 Twins are no worse than the team that broke camp in 2006, and that team managed to recover to a .460 Win% given a large enough sample of games. This team can do that, too. 25 games is only 15% of the season. 2) Though the sort of upgrades that eventually carried the 2006 team on a historic 71-33 run to finish the season don’t appear to be within reach now, they don’t need to be. 2006 was the toughest AL Central ever, with three teams winning 90 or more games. I’d be surprised if even one team reaches that level this year. The top run differential in the division right now is +2. 6 games under .500 is within 5 games of first place, and that’s close enough to be in the division race and buying at the trade deadline. I don’t think the current is roster is necessarily a contender, but they’re better than they’ve shown, and this is a terrible division. Could we give it another 4 weeks before we start thinking about how to blow this team up?

I would like to compliment the Twins' offense on this wise allocation of their resources. Why waste any hits on a game in which the pitching gives up 9 runs? Better to save them for Seattle.

I gotta go with Puckett in Milwaukee. He "only" had 4 RBI, but that's pretty impressive considering he came to the plate just once with RISP. This was Puck at his Puckiest, swinging at everything, bashing the ball all over the field. How's this for memorable: he got his final AB by virtue of a 3rd strike passed ball that should have ended the top of the 9th. Given the opportunity to swing one more time, he hit a homer. Extra credit: It came in the final weeks of a pennant race the Twins won by just 2 games; it came on the road, where the team struggled mightily; on defense, he reached over the wall to steal a grand slam from future Hall-of-Famer Robin Yount that would have put the Brewers ahead by 2 in the bottom of the 6th.

In the spirit of helping Liriano build confidence by placing him in situations where he has the greatest chance to succeed, shouldn't the Twins juggle the rotation a bit to make sure that he pitches in Seattle on Sunday? The Mariners are 12th in the AL in OPS, 13th in OBP and have struck out the most. That's not a lot different from what the Angels have done so far, but the M's typical lineup includes 3 lefties (Ichiro, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders), and Safeco is as favorable a pitching environment as there is in the AL. I like his chances better facing that lineup for the first time this year than an all right-handed lineup that has already gotten to him twice in the past month.

In my last post, I investigated whether the offense was really as bad as it has looked so far. I discovered that, since the Home Opener, the Twins have been swinging the bats well enough to average about 5 runs/game. They have been held back by an extremely low BA with RISP and high rate of HIDP, each of which is likely to revert to the mean over a large enough sample. Once that happens, we should be left with an above-average offense for 2012-2013. The news is not so good on the run prevention side, though that is also significantly better than it would appear. In all of baseball, only the Brewers have allowed more than the Twins 10.23 H/9. You might expect that poor fielding range would be a contributor to that, as it is in Milwaukee. But in fact, the defensive metrics generally view the Twins’ defense favorably so far, rating them average to slightly above in most cases. Their 14 errors and .983 Fielding% rank in the top half of MLB, and they’re on pace to allow just 37 unearned runs - less than half last year’s total. The defense isn’t a problem, either. That leaves the pitching, and that has been brutal. The Twins’ staff ranks at the bottom of MLB in runs allowed, ERA, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, BAA, HR/9 and LOB%. Their BABIP against, though high for April, isn’t much different from last year’s league average of .294 - another indication that the defense hasn’t hurt them. Despite Francisco Liriano’s struggles finding the strike zone, the staff as a whole has an excellent 2.56 BB/9, so at least they’re doing that right. 21.9% of their balls in play have been line drives, a rate that places them in the bottom third of the league, though still ahead of good pitching teams like Texas, Tampa and Oakland. Their very low K/9 is going to put pressure on their defense all year. But even so, things shouldn’t be this bad. They are mainly because of two factors which, like the offensive problems of BA with RISP and HIDP, should eventually revert to the mean. First is their LOB%. Right now it’s at 66.8%, nearly 2% lower than the next worst team. Last year’s pitiful staff was also worst in the Majors, but at 69.1%. Now, 2.3% may not seem like a big difference, but it adds up quickly. It means that 1 extra guy is scoring for every 43 who reach base. With the Twins’ WHIP at 1.42, they’re giving up at least 13 baserunners per nine innings pitched. So that terrible strand rate translates to nearly 1 more run allowed every 3 games than last year’s dreadful staff. This factor does a lot to explain why their FIP (5.13) is half a run lower than their ERA (5.64). Second is their HR/FB. Typically, 1 out of every 10 or 11 flies will leave the yard. For the Twins, it’s been 1 out of 6. Last year’s godawful staff allowed homers at pretty much the normal ratio, which is why their FIP, xFIP and SIERA were all about the same (while FIP uses the HR/FB pitchers actually had, xFIP and SIERA use the average rate, which results in more accurate predictions). Interestingly, the Twins’ xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.32) for April were almost exactly the same as their totals from 2011 (4.33 and 4.27). Remember, those numbers are still 30th out of 30 teams. But they look a hell of a lot better than 5.64. If the Twins’ ERA was where xFIP and SIERA say it should be, they would have allowed 96 R in April. Along with the 87 runs they scored, that would make their expected record 10-12. But as I pointed out last time, the offense swung the bats well enough to have scored 86 runs in the 17 games following opening weekend. Add those to the 5 they got in Baltimore and the 10 they scored on Sunday and Monday, and you’ve got a team that should be .500, just a game back in the AL Central standings. Ultimately, I don’t think .500 will cut it, but it’s more in line with my expectations of the abilities of these players. With Scott Baker and Joel Zumaya lost for the season and Liriano and Matt Capps lost in the woods, the Twins desperately need a high quality addition to both the rotation and the bullpen. That will cost them something; whether they feel it’s worth the price will depend on how quickly they can start matching their on-field results with what the formulae say they should be producing. If they don’t make a move, we can expect them to remain the worst staff in baseball. But even so, they should be better than this.

In my last post, I investigated whether the offense was really as bad as it has looked so far. I discovered that, since the Home Opener, the Twins have been swinging the bats well enough to average about 5 runs/game. They have been held back by an extremely low BA with RISP and high rate of HIDP, each of which is likely to revert to the mean over a large enough sample. Once that happens, we should be left with an above-average offense for 2012-2013. The news is not so good on the run prevention side, though that is also significantly better than it would appear. In all of baseball, only the Brewers have allowed more than the Twins 10.23 H/9. You might expect that poor fielding range would be a contributor to that, as it is in Milwaukee. But in fact, the defensive metrics generally view the Twins’ defense favorably so far, rating them average to slightly above in most cases. Their 14 errors and .983 Fielding% rank in the top half of MLB, and they’re on pace to allow just 37 unearned runs - less than half last year’s total. The defense isn’t a problem, either. That leaves the pitching, and that has been brutal. The Twins’ staff ranks at the bottom of MLB in runs allowed, ERA, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, BAA, HR/9 and LOB%. Their BABIP against, though high for April, isn’t much different from last year’s league average of .294 - another indication that the defense hasn’t hurt them. Despite Francisco Liriano’s struggles finding the strike zone, the staff as a whole has an excellent 2.56 BB/9, so at least they’re doing that right. 21.9% of their balls in play have been line drives, a rate that places them in the bottom third of the league, though still ahead of good pitching teams like Texas, Tampa and Oakland. Their very low K/9 is going to put pressure on their defense all year. But even so, things shouldn’t be this bad. They are mainly because of two factors which, like the offensive problems of BA with RISP and HIDP, should eventually revert to the mean. First is their LOB%. Right now it’s at 66.8%, nearly 2% lower than the next worst team. Last year’s pitiful staff was also worst in the Majors, but at 69.1%. Now, 2.3% may not seem like a big difference, but it adds up quickly. It means that 1 extra guy is scoring for every 43 who reach base. With the Twins’ WHIP at 1.42, they’re giving up at least 13 baserunners per nine innings pitched. So that terrible strand rate translates to nearly 1 more run allowed every 3 games than last year’s dreadful staff. This factor does a lot to explain why their FIP (5.13) is half a run lower than their ERA (5.64). Second is their HR/FB. Typically, 1 out of every 10 or 11 flies will leave the yard. For the Twins, it’s been 1 out of 6. Last year’s godawful staff allowed homers at pretty much the normal ratio, which is why their FIP, xFIP and SIERA were all about the same (while FIP uses the HR/FB pitchers actually had, xFIP and SIERA use the average rate, which results in more accurate predictions). Interestingly, the Twins’ xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.32) for April were almost exactly the same as their totals from 2011 (4.33 and 4.27). Remember, those numbers are still 30th out of 30 teams. But they look a hell of a lot better than 5.64. If the Twins’ ERA was where xFIP and SIERA say it should be, they would have allowed 96 R in April. Along with the 87 runs they scored, that would make their expected record 10-12. But as I pointed out last time, the offense swung the bats well enough to have scored 86 runs in the 17 games following opening weekend. Add those to the 5 they got in Baltimore and the 10 they scored on Sunday and Monday, and you’ve got a team that should be .500, just a game back in the AL Central standings. Ultimately, I don’t think .500 will cut it, but it’s more in line with my expectations of the abilities of these players. With Scott Baker and Joel Zumaya lost for the season and Liriano and Matt Capps lost in the woods, the Twins desperately need a high quality addition to both the rotation and the bullpen. That will cost them something; whether they feel it’s worth the price will depend on how quickly they can start matching their on-field results with what the formulae say they should be producing. If they don’t make a move, we can expect them to remain the worst staff in baseball. But even so, they should be better than this.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?489-It-s-Not-the-Offense

If I’d told you before the season started that, 20 games in, Denard Span would have a .386 OBP, Joe Mauer would be hitting .329 and Justin Morneau would have an IsoP of .236, plus newcomer Josh Willingham would have a 1.114 OPS, what would you have expected the Twins’ record to be? Better than 5-15, I hope. There are a lot of reasons why it is that poor, and some of them are not easily solved, but I don’t believe the offense is one of them. Ultimately, it’s about scoring runs, and the numbers there are not good. The Twins have crossed the plate just 77 times in their first 20 games, putting them on pace to score 624 runs. Unless they pick it up, we’ll be facing 100 losses again at the end of September. Fortunately, they have picked it up. Since forgetting to bring their bats to the opening series in Baltimore, the Twins have hit .279/.343/.419 with 11/14 SB. If you plug their offensive numbers from the past 17 games into a simple formulation of Runs Created, you get just over 5 runs/game, on pace for about 820 runs on the year. That’s a lineup that can contend in a weak AL Central. Sadly, the formula hasn’t been reflective of their real-world performance. They’ve actually averaged 4.2 runs/game over their last 17, a pace for 686 runs on the season. With this pitching staff, that will probably leave them at least 10 games under .500. There are two major reasons for this discrepancy between the formula and what’s really happened over the last 3 weeks. Happily, neither is likely to be a problem over the long haul. First, though they’ve hit well overall, they’ve had a lot of trouble cashing in on their scoring opportunities. Since Baltimore, they’re hitting .241 with RISP. In 2011, they hit .249 overall and .248 with RISP, and the AL as a whole hit .257 overall and .258 with RISP. With a large enough sample size, the numbers will even out. Unless you believe there’s something inherently un-clutch about the Twins’ hitters. I don’t. Second, there are the double plays. The Twins have already hit into 22 DPs, a rate of 1 for every 11.5 baserunners. The other 13 teams in the AL have combined to hit into 200, about 15 apiece, a rate of 1 for every 16.3 baserunners. Just in case you think there’s something about the Twins’ hitting style that makes them more likely to hit into DPs, last year’s horrific offense did so at a rate of... 1 for every 16.5 baserunners. Given enough time, the frequency of Twin-killings should normalize. Not only are they hitting into more than their share of DPs, they’re doing it disproportionately in games where it hurts the most. The Twins had 8 of them turned against them in 4 games they lost by a single run. Had they been able to redistribute one rally-killing DP away from each of those games (such as Sean Burroughs’ on Wednesday or the dicey call on Doumit’s sinking liner on Friday), it’s not hard to imagine them having 3-4 more wins than they do right now. And, given the strength of their early-season opponents and their disastrous starting pitching, 8-9 wins at this stage would be a decent accomplishment. I would expect their BABIP to come down somewhat over the course of the season. Even so, this lineup appears to be capable of producing at least 750 runs over 162 games. That’s a strength - the average AL team scored 723 runs in 2011. The Twins’ typical starting 9 earns about $54M combined. Doumit is the only guy in that group who isn’t under contract or team control for 2013. The other 8 could all be back for a combined salary of... about $54M. This team’s troubles sit squarely on the pitching side. They may not be solvable this year, but there will be an opportunity to mostly wipe the slate clean next offseason. The quality and stability of the offense gives them the opportunity to devote just about all of their resources to upgrading the pitching. They’ve got big problems this year, but I wouldn’t dismantle the offense and write off 2013 yet.

If I’d told you before the season started that, 20 games in, Denard Span would have a .386 OBP, Joe Mauer would be hitting .329 and Justin Morneau would have an IsoP of .236, plus newcomer Josh Willingham would have a 1.114 OPS, what would you have expected the Twins’ record to be? Better than 5-15, I hope. There are a lot of reasons why it is that poor, and some of them are not easily solved, but I don’t believe the offense is one of them. Ultimately, it’s about scoring runs, and the numbers there are not good. The Twins have crossed the plate just 77 times in their first 20 games, putting them on pace to score 624 runs. Unless they pick it up, we’ll be facing 100 losses again at the end of September. Fortunately, they have picked it up. Since forgetting to bring their bats to the opening series in Baltimore, the Twins have hit .279/.343/.419 with 11/14 SB. If you plug their offensive numbers from the past 17 games into a simple formulation of Runs Created, you get just over 5 runs/game, on pace for about 820 runs on the year. That’s a lineup that can contend in a weak AL Central. Sadly, the formula hasn’t been reflective of their real-world performance. They’ve actually averaged 4.2 runs/game over their last 17, a pace for 686 runs on the season. With this pitching staff, that will probably leave them at least 10 games under .500. There are two major reasons for this discrepancy between the formula and what’s really happened over the last 3 weeks. Happily, neither is likely to be a problem over the long haul. First, though they’ve hit well overall, they’ve had a lot of trouble cashing in on their scoring opportunities. Since Baltimore, they’re hitting .241 with RISP. In 2011, they hit .249 overall and .248 with RISP, and the AL as a whole hit .257 overall and .258 with RISP. With a large enough sample size, the numbers will even out. Unless you believe there’s something inherently un-clutch about the Twins’ hitters. I don’t. Second, there are the double plays. The Twins have already hit into 22 DPs, a rate of 1 for every 11.5 baserunners. The other 13 teams in the AL have combined to hit into 200, about 15 apiece, a rate of 1 for every 16.3 baserunners. Just in case you think there’s something about the Twins’ hitting style that makes them more likely to hit into DPs, last year’s horrific offense did so at a rate of... 1 for every 16.5 baserunners. Given enough time, the frequency of Twin-killings should normalize. Not only are they hitting into more than their share of DPs, they’re doing it disproportionately in games where it hurts the most. The Twins had 8 of them turned against them in 4 games they lost by a single run. Had they been able to redistribute one rally-killing DP away from each of those games (such as Sean Burroughs’ on Wednesday or the dicey call on Doumit’s sinking liner on Friday), it’s not hard to imagine them having 3-4 more wins than they do right now. And, given the strength of their early-season opponents and their disastrous starting pitching, 8-9 wins at this stage would be a decent accomplishment. I would expect their BABIP to come down somewhat over the course of the season. Even so, this lineup appears to be capable of producing at least 750 runs over 162 games. That’s a strength - the average AL team scored 723 runs in 2011. The Twins’ typical starting 9 earns about $54M combined. Doumit is the only guy in that group who isn’t under contract or team control for 2013. The other 8 could all be back for a combined salary of... about $54M. This team’s troubles sit squarely on the pitching side. They may not be solvable this year, but there will be an opportunity to mostly wipe the slate clean next offseason. The quality and stability of the offense gives them the opportunity to devote just about all of their resources to upgrading the pitching. They’ve got big problems this year, but I wouldn’t dismantle the offense and write off 2013 yet.

1) DFA Gray, add Slama to take his spot in the bullpen, promote Deolis Guerra to take Slama's spot at Rochester. 2) Trade Revere to the Rays for RHP Alex Cobb. Give Cobb Hendriks' spot in the rotation and send Liam back to AAA. Release Brendan Wise to make room for Hendriks and send Daryl Thompson to the bullpen. 3) Decline Scott Baker's $9.25M option for 2013 and resign him to a 1-year, $5M contract with a $9.25M option for 2014. This is basically a do-over of the final year of his deal, prorated for an anticipated mid-May return from TJS rehab. He can earn a $200K bonus for every GS over 25, in case he gets back into shape early. That sets the Twins up for an eventual 2013 rotation of (#1 starter), Baker, Cobb, Hendriks, & Blackburn at a total cost of $11.5M. That leaves plenty of room in the budget to bid heavily on one of the available front-of-the-rotation FA next offseason. Yes, TR, you can afford Greinke!