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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    That seems really rosy to me. I don't doubt that Arcia could eventually put up these type of numbers. But I don't see it this year. His career OPS splits are .809/.613. So you are expecting his average to rise more than his career OPS against righties with about a 30 basis point improvement in his BA.
  2. tobi0040
    Did you guys factor in defense into the rankings? After the Santana one I didn't think so, but maybe you did here? I am guessing Arcia has a better OPS this year than Melky or Cespedes. Cespedes for sure. Cespedes has basically been a .250/.300 guy with 22 HR the last two years (after tape existed on him). .740 OPS. That is in line with Arcia's age 22 and 23 seasons, where he was literally clueless against lefties and has had contact issues. I would expect a step forward to some extent this year.
  3. tobi0040
    I think Meyer and May could have made this team, but 200 ip across aa and aaa is averaging about 15 starts a league. If you saw him in spring training he needs to work out some links. No doubt.
  4. tobi0040
    A few of us have commented that trevor is one of the most under-appreciated players in the game. This ranking further validates that. This Is a very weak position in baseball so to be penciling a guy in for 750 is no small feat.
  5. tobi0040
    I don't know that I agree. At 22 Gibson went from A ball to AAA. The next season he had 95 IP at AAA and really struggled (4.81 ERA), turns out he needed tommy john and that is why he was struggling. May and Meyer were in another teams system until 22 and 23. One was in high A and the other had a 4.87 ERA at AA. So when you go case by case it seems to me that neither of these guys was coming up at the 22/23 range that are deemed quick.
  6. tobi0040
    I could not find it quickly and need to get to work!
  7. tobi0040
    The contract was a perfect storm of great year and new stadium. And I think the thing that people don't understand is that the Twins likely view a decent chunk of that $23M as a marketing expense with a high ROI.
  8. tobi0040
    So I look it up. Almost all his value was on the defensive side with a negative Owar. Then I realize I am looking at his son.
  9. tobi0040
    Gwynn was at .813. Interestingly his career OPS is quite a bit higher, .847. So his 32-40 years were quite a bit better. Boggs was at .920 at 31, then dropped to .858 for his career. His 30's were not as nice to him. Total BREF WAR for the three at 31. Boggs 59.9. Mauer 46.3. Gwynn 41.
  10. tobi0040
    These are fair points. And when I initially made the comment I was thinking my lifetime, which excludes these guys. But the broader point is Joe is in the discussion, yet nobody is happy with him. I looked at OPS thru age 31 season. I just summed OPS / number of year for Olvia, Carew, and Killebrew and compared that with Joe's career. So the other guys won't be perfect as the at bats were not evenly distributed but it should be very close. I also started the tally when they were full time MLB players. Joe's OPS is .860. He is ahead of Oliva's 858 and Carew's 839 and well behind Killebrew's 923.
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah, Carew was 37 when I was born. So I don't have much to go on outside of baseball reference stats! Career BA is 10 points higher than Joe. Joe's OPS is 38 points higher than Carew's.Joe has a small OPS plus edge. My understanding is Carew had many bunt hits. They will probably end up with the same amount of HR's. Joe has Oliva in every category outside of HR and slugging. OPS, OPS plus, BA, OBP by 48 points. He is at least in the discussion, yet here you will find 4-5 negative comments for every positive one about Joe.
  12. tobi0040
    There is a definite trend. But I think this is a causation/correlation issue again. Did we promote few pitchers because we have a different criteria or did we lack pitching talent to promote? Here are the first round picks we spent on pitchers from 2002 to 2010. Keep in mind these are picks primarily in the 20-50 range. The one's that have reached MLB with debut age (Perkins 23, Garza 22, and Gibson, who was knocking on the door at 22. You can add Liriano who we got via trade that was up here at 21. When the talent is there these guys don't waste away at AAA. Here is the list of flops: Hunt, Gutierrez, Waldrop, Fox, Rainville, Wimmers, and Bashore. You have a bunch of guys that never made the show, let alone were promotable at 21 or 22.
  13. tobi0040
    There are some that judge Joe Mauer by his HR totals alone. They will always be terribly dissapointed in him. I choose to sit back and enjoy the best pure hitter we may see in a Twins uniform in our lifetime.
  14. tobi0040
    I think Meyer and May could be very good MLB pitchers. But players tend to click at different times. Two of the biggest success stores on our team right now are Dozier and Plouffe. I looked at minor league baseballs top prospects from 2009 to 2011 and neither was listed as a top 20 prospect. Both came up around 25. My point is not all players need to be up at 22 in order to be good and for others and it probably would not have been in their best interest anyway. I am sticking to my theory that from 2002 to 2009 we didn't draft very well and we drafted young high school players that are typically in the minors a long time. In addition, we had a contending team with solid to good veterans at most positions. Less talent + fewer available positions = prospects spending a lot of time in the minors. From 2013 to 2016 we will probablly have Hicks, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, and Arcia debut between 20 and 23 (most 21 or 22). It says very little about our organizations theory on moving guys through the system and more about talent and open positions. Looking at farm system rankings during these two time periods probably tells the story.
  15. tobi0040
    I think not being comfortable at 1B hurt his hitting more than we realize. From all accounts in ST he seems better defenisvely, which should help him at the plate. I also think an off-season of reviewing the way defenses played him last year will help him. I say .310/.385/430. 8-10 HR. 35-40 Doubles. That .815 OPS probably puts him ahead of Santana and Hosmer. I will also say that Cabrera will be ahead of Abreau. Cespedes and Puig had a nice retreat in year two after the first one. Pitchers have tape on them now.
  16. tobi0040
    Jay hit it on the head. Garza. Liriano. Gibson pre TJ. Gomez started at 22. Arcia started at 22. Mauer made his debut as 20. When we have guys that are elite or they play. Now we have them again. Sano would have been 22. Buxton and berrios could debut at 21. Re-run this study after this year and I bet we are one of the fastest. From 2002 to 2009 we took a lot of raw high school players and we were drafting from 20 to 30 in most cases (with many whiffs) Very few of these guys were promotable at 21 or 22. May and Meyer keep being brought up and they needed to skip AAA to meet this standard of not being too slow. Neither was in our system at 22. One had a rough go at AA and the other was still in high A. I think we are really forcing a viewpoint to fit reality here.
  17. tobi0040
    So when your team is bad you just skip AAA. I guess I can't get on board with this.
  18. tobi0040
    Jokin, Can you list the players in the last six years or so we brought up too early and which we brought up too late? I am just curious on the math from your perspective. It is even at best for me. Too early: Hicks and Gomez. Too late: May, but by maybe a month. Nothing glaring. Not a strong opinion either way: Hard to look back now and say Meyer was ready. Santana and Vargas certainly did not warrant the move by their minor league numbers but they played well. Arcia was up at 22 and has looked promising but has a ton on both sides of the ball to work on.
  19. tobi0040
    Two points. First, even if they brought up Meyer and May too late, which I think is not a given, their would still be at least as many guys brought up too early than too late. Hicks and Gomez were not ready. I don't know anyone that would argue they were ready. Second, in May of last year....May had just come off a 4.87 and 4.51 ERA in double A. Then after 14 innings in Arizona (3.21 ERA) and four starts at AAA (4.97 ERA). That was the appropriate time to promote him and by not promoting him at this point the Twins were slow? Meyer had just pitched 70 innings at AA and was shut down with shoulder issues in 2013. He had a 3.12 ERA in 26 fall league innings. Meyer had a 3.69 in all of 19 innings at AAA. That was the appropriate time? So basically anytime a player has any time in AAA we are slow? I just want to understand the rules. Because it seems like no real trend exists here. If we had guys that were ready and young, like Mauer, Liriano, Garza, etc. at 21 or 22 we would have been playing them. I look around and I don't see them. That is the biggest issue versus being too slow IMO. Sano would have debuted last year if he was healthy (21). I think Buxton will debut at 21 this year. And Berrios will probably get some starts this year at 21 as well. I think the major story here is talent.
  20. tobi0040
    So everytime a player has a .719 OPS at AA we should promote him? What about a guy with an OPS of .844 in AA (hicks), who flops?
  21. tobi0040
    I am yet to find evidence the Twins delayed players repeatedly. At best, they have rushed as many (Hicks) as guys that people think they should have brought up before (Meyer). I think Gomez was rusehd at 22, even though he debuted someplace else. He was not ready when he came up. Vargas was in high A a year before he made his debut. He, like Hicks skipped AAA. Danny Santana wasn't exactly putting up promote me multiple levels either...
  22. tobi0040
    I really wanted May over Milone. But which of these guys should have debuted earlier and at what age? Trevor May. Came to the Twins at 22. As a 23 year old he had a 4.51 ERA in AA, not exactly allow me to skip AAA stats. At 24 he had a good year in AAA and made his debut, starting 10 games. Alex Meyer. His first year with the Twins was as a 23 year old. He came off high A in another system as a 22 year old. He spent a year at AA. The most innings he had ever pitched was 129 and he was shut down with shoulder pain. At 24 he was in AAA, on the cusp of breaking through and had a horrific stretch and was blowing through 80 pitches before the 4th inning in some instances. Got back on track, then was shut down again with shoulder pain. As a 25 year old he could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training.
  23. tobi0040
    Addendum: Mauer - 20 (4 days from being 21) Gomez - 21 Liriano - 21 Garza - 22 Gibson was probably going to debut at 22 or 23 before TJ
  24. tobi0040
    Some of us thought May and Meyer were in line last year. Then along came Yohan Pino. Kris Johnson. Logan Darnell, etc. and the mainstay is the GM, who decides these things.
  25. tobi0040
    Totally agree. Milone has to be really bad in order to be repaced, which he likely won't be. He will be a 28 year old, #5 or #6 starter
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