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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I agree about Rosario. If he can get to the .750 OPS range I think he is an asset on this team. Having a natural CF play LF would be a huge defensive improvement. The question will be whether or not he has more value via trade, as CF or 2B would provide more value somewhere else than LF here. I think he has to get reps and produce before we have any clarity.
  2. tobi0040
    I think most are louder about Buxton, giving the nature of his year. But between now and June we will have 30 AZ fall league games and 50 or so minor league games. If he plays like he did in 2013 I think pretty loud.
  3. tobi0040
    Buck went 0-4 with a BB and SB (error as well). Eddie went 2-4 with a SB
  4. tobi0040
    My goal is to be in contention for the world series. I just outlined for you that we could take our current team and sign everyone of the guys you advocated for, payroll would be $30M more than it will ever be, and we are basically a .500 team. So for me, now is not the time to go all in. What we need is cost controlled young players to come up and produce. If two years from now, we have this type of production from these guys a few vets added to the mix and we could easily be a playoff team, especially given where the Tigers will be at payroll and age-wise: Buxton .270, 15 HR, 50 SB, great defense in CF Sano .260, 30 HR, 80 BB Meyer, Berrios, May 180-200 IP each, 3.50-3.80 ERA (Or just two of the three)
  5. tobi0040
    We had an $85M payroll and won 70 games. Here is the relevant data on the guys you listed: Cruz 4.7 WAR $14M Vargas 2.4 WAR $9M Kazmir 1.7 WAR $11M Drew -.3 WAR $10M Ervin 1.2 WAR $14M Napoli 3.2 WAR $16M Terry Ryan could have NOT signed Pelfrey and Nolasco, payroll would have been $68M. Then signed every one of these guys. We would have won 83 games and had a payroll of $142M. Sometimes folding is the right move. Has it been a long frustrating four years? Yes....but we were that far away. As painful as this has been, I would rather have 70 wins with a payroll starting in the 60-70M range, some wiggle room to add and young players playing than an 83-81 team with a payroll at 142M, young guys blocked all over the place, way over our cap and dialing it down.
  6. tobi0040
    MLB.com has them. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/
  7. tobi0040
    I think there is a very good chance the Twins would make that trade. The M's, um....no.
  8. tobi0040
    Like how Kevin Gausman did not crack the O's four man playoff rotation. Or when Lohse won like 16 games for us and did not crack our rotation......those were the days.
  9. tobi0040
    I think we should sign one guy, but only a top 4 FA or trade for a guy that is an upgrade. Then have a healthy competition. I think they want Meyer to start in AAA anyway. If he does make the team in April at worse you have May in the pen for awhile until someone is hurt or pitches themselves out. I think another bottom-feeder type signing makes no sense.
  10. tobi0040
    We definitely speculate all the time. My point was that penciling in Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May is not giving us any room for error. That plan looks an awful lot like Mike Pelfrey getting 20 starts next year, so help us god. It is not clear to me that Meyer is going to make this team out of spring training, or that May was effective enough to be handed a rotation spot. Or that Nolasco will be healthy and effective next year. Let alone an unexpected injury.
  11. tobi0040
    When is the last time bloggers have sat here, six months before the season and named the five starters for the next year? Where all five of those guys made the team, stayed healthy all year, were all effective, etc.? I just see a ton of hope in that strategy. You are never going to regret adding one starting pitcher that is better than the five you think you have.
  12. tobi0040
    DrJim, That is exactly what I meant, thank you. A sustainable drive at competing for the playoffs. What that means in Twins speak is you need a young core of players that are cost controlled for several years. Given where this team was in 2011 signing three free agents and bringing payroll up to the max range was not going to get us where we wanted to go. We needed a longer term view that was going to take time.
  13. tobi0040
    I think the Twins have signed a bunch of veterans with the intention of flipping them, unfortunately most played very poorly in their last year. I know that we were fielding offers for Willingham after the first year but did not move him because we were worried future free agents would not sign here. He is one example. We had a flip on our minds with regard to Morales obviously. In the back of our minds, when we signed the following guys I am sure this was part of the reasoning: Corriea, Pelfrey, Kubel, Bartlett, Harden, and Suzuki. The first five would not have yielded anything and given our lack of confidence in Pinto, they deemed an extension as the best path for Suzuki. I think in 2011 and 2012, we should have done more of this to re-stock the system, I agree. But now we need to play guys that are part of the solution. With regard to Masterson, I think given his age he could net a longer offer than Shields. He is also less consistent. I don't see him specifically as a fit for an extension with the Twins.
  14. tobi0040
    Trust me, I get your sense of frustration and urgency. But I think it is too early to conclude he has been a failure. I am going to make two assumptions that are mine based on belief alone, with no way to prove it. 1- Ownership was unwilling to invest in free agents for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and wanted payroll to come down while we rebuild. 2 - Terry was brought in to bring back a sustainable winning team. Given those, the only way Terry could have sped this rebuild up was by drafting college juniors and seniors over high school players. These typically get to the majors quicker but in many cases have lower ceilings. I think we will be served better off in the long run by taking Buxton, Kohl, Berrios, and Gordon over lower ceiling college players.
  15. tobi0040
    Tomas is an unknown commodity, both on offense and defense. At this point I don't think we can say he will make our defense better, or at least markedly better. I know he is listed at 6'1 230 at 23 years old. Those dimensions/age don't make me think of Willie Mays.
  16. tobi0040
    I don't think a guy like Masterson would get extended here if he had a really good season. He was very good in 2011 and 2013. If he does it again in 2015 he has more going for him than Homer Bailey, who the market deemed worthy of a $100M deal. Given the bad years I don't see a conservative team like the Twins making that investment, but I think Masterson knows someone else will. Best case IMO is he is lights out and we flip him, but I am just tired of signing guys so we can flip them. At this point I would rather us spend time and money in guys that are going to be here.
  17. tobi0040
    q So going off fip. We have one very good starter. Another 2/3 (gibson). And a guy that was league average who had elbow issues this year. Then we are relying on meyer and may to round out the rotation (don't think pelfrey or milone are in a playoff rotation). We are giving ourselves no contingency plan, let alone addressing the talent issue. Linus said it best, let's worry about having too many good pitchers when that happens The other issue is we could shave 81 runs off are runs allowed (half run a game) and still be 22nd. Not good enough. We need more pitching talent.
  18. tobi0040
    What I meant us we are not winning the world series so signing a high risk guy like masterson on a one year deal does not make sense to me. He blocks someone, if he is bad it is a waste if he is good it is an audition for someone else.
  19. tobi0040
    I think the Revere and Span trades were savvy and not neccesarily made because we were going to be bad. Terry saw a market where only one good CF was on the market and 3-4 contenders thought they were a CF away. I think those were great moves he deserves credit for. The not high draft picks could add Burdi, Gonslaves, Walker, Rogers, Hicks, Turner, Garver, Swim, Reed, and Murphy. Some talent in there. I think it is ironic that some are saying Ryan does not deserve credit for the Smith guys, others are saying Ryan deserves blame for how bad it got under Smith because Ryan had influence. Both cannot be true.
  20. tobi0040
    I forgot about Milone, he was rather forgettable here in his short stint. I don't see the Twins signing up for another $34M AAV next year. I just get a bad feeling when we are going to roll into next season with the same guys we had this season. Assuming nobody gets worse, everyone gets better, prospects come up and play well right away, and nobody gets hurt does not seem like a viable strategy for improvement.
  21. tobi0040
    Here were the numbers of four guys that will either be in the rotation or mix next year: IP This year ERA ERA + Career ERA + Nolasco 159 5.38 73 91 Hughes 209 3.52 112 98 Gibson 179 4.47 88 81 Pelfrey 23 7.99 50 88 And then you have Meyer and May. Both prospects. I am excited about Meyer but both of these guys have struggled with control and Meyer has dealt with injuries. When you don't have a single pitcher on your team with a career ERA + of 100, don't blow $70M on an unknown Cuban OF. Especially when you were 5th in runs the previous season.
  22. tobi0040
    I completely agree about Buxton. The risks outweigh the benefits here. The Twins staff said Buxton was over-powered in spring training last year. Then he went and played a total of 31 games at an OPS of .702. Sano has at least had 67 games with some success (.915 OPS) at AA, with 19 HR.
  23. tobi0040
    I don't like the rehab/improvement type upside deals. These fail more than they work and the Twins don't have the best history. Most of these are going to be one year deals. That doesn't do much for us. Best case these guys stay both healhty and effective and we flip them. I want to get better now.
  24. tobi0040
    I agree the supply is a lot better this year. The other bummer is many of the second tier guys probably don't sign until the big boys do. From a fan perspective that makes me a tad antsy!
  25. tobi0040
    I lost to the coin, 13.
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