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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I see a ton of similarities between Rasmus now and Hughes last season. Both were first round picks. Both were top prospects (Hughes got up to 4 I believe. Rasmus was 10 in 2007). Both came up young. Hughes at 20 and Rasmus at 22. Both showed flashes of being really good. Hughes had a 3.03 and 4.19 era at 23 and 24 with good k rates Rasmus had an ops of 859 as a 23 year old. He has had an ops plus over 100 in four seasons. His ISO was better than Miguel Carreras last year. His 162 game average is 24 hr and 29 2b Both accumulated mlb average type numbers by the time they hit FA, despite being young (4.50 era for Hughes and 751 ops for Rasmus). Yet both were dismissed by their teams as busts and let test free agency I would pursue the same type of deal that we gave Hughes but he would likely cost more money than $8M a year. So 3-30 or 3-33 or so. If he would rather do the make good one year thing, I would give him that. Maybe you extend him mid season if he plays well or at minimum get a pick if he gets the huge deal he may be looking for next off-season. In the meantime I think he produces more than any others on this list, stabilizes our OF defense, and gives you a ton of upside like Hughes did.
  2. tobi0040
    This is just my speculation, but I think the Twins may hand Hicks CF or LF from April to the end of June. One last look to see if he takes a step forward. If not they cut the cord or hopefully make him a 4th OF/platoon in a corner. (.750 OPS against lefties). I say that because he is former first round pick they have invested a ton in and really looked promising at one point.
  3. tobi0040
    This is a good article on Rasmus, very detailed. They speculate he either goes 1-10 to rebuild value, or it would take at least $10M a year over three years if he went longer term. I am guessing he has little interest in 3-30 because he has a shot at 4-5 years and $15-18M a year next off-season if his 2015 looks like his 2013. The bad news is he is really the only CF on the market. So my guess is he has very little interest in signing to play a corner. The CF market will be weak again next year as well....the one year deal may be appealing to him. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-colby-rasmus.html
  4. tobi0040
    It would be nicer to have a congestion of good pitchers. That is my issue with this list.
  5. tobi0040
    I think the lower you go down on that list, the closer the production will be to Eddie Rosario. Aoki for example had a .726 OPS in 2013 and .710 in 2014. He will be 33. I am guessing at least defensively Eddie Rosario would be better. He is a 23 year old that would be a CF in almost every other system out there. He has to play LF better than Aoki. I view Rosario's potential as a better bat than an OPS in the low 700's. Last year was really a throw away for Eddie, before anyone quotes his .672 OPS in AA. Looking at his history in the 800-900 range, making the PR WBC team as a 21 year old, etc.
  6. tobi0040
    I totally agree. I also think the Twins limiting his slider is a great move for his development, not to mention is health.
  7. tobi0040
    My first choice would be Rasmus on a 2-3 year deal. Keep him in CF now and stablize the position, then move him to a corner when Buxton arrives. Career .751 OPS, good defender, still young. Not going to break the bank. The nice thing is it would move HIcks to a corner now, where he will need to be if he has a future here. The issue is whether or not he would do the deal knowing he would go to a corner. If he wants to prove his worth, he may want to do it in CF and hit it big as a center fielder. So the only shot there may be a one year deal. Outside of him, I didn't realize Rios is a good defender still. His dWAR on baseball reference tells a different story, -2 over the last three years. But that is the issue with these metrics, our scouting department will probably have to look at tape. I do have to say that the concerning thing to me is that we allegedly reached out to Torii Hunter. So the Twins may not be on the same page with needing a defensive upgrade in the OF.
  8. tobi0040
    I disagree that Hughes would not meet the description. outside of yankee stadium he was pretty consistent, an ERA just over 4.00. Much better than Nolasco's 4.37. He was healthy, he was young, he had good stuff, he was a former top prospect. The Yankee stadium part was being removed from the equation. I think we should talk through what we are disagreeing about. I am not adamently against adding a pitcher. Just not one from that list. If we want to sign one of the top four free agents or explore a trade that is great. I just would rather see Meyer and May start in the rotation over a guy like Brett Anderson, or Villaneuva. The overwhelming likelihood of most of those guys is that they will continue to stink or be hurt here, while taking innings from someone. I don't view any as a candidate for extension even if they pitched well given their track record.
  9. tobi0040
    They have certainly whiffed in free agency as well. But it seems to me they pay a premuim for guys well over 30 in many cases. They gave up first round picks in 2006 (Wagner), 2007 (Alou) , 2009 (K-Rod), and now 2015 (Cuddy). They have gained several as well during this stretch, but that is the nature of having a bunch of high priced free agents. These four moves should be analyzed separately. They got 2 good years of out K-Rod, aged 27-29. They got 2 good years and 2 injured years out of Billy Wagner, ages 33-37. They they got 100 games out of a 40-41 year old Alou over two years. I am guessing each of these guys was paid over $10M a year as well. Relievers and corner outfielders should be about the easiest to develop, or sign without having to give up first round picks. They will be out a first round pick in 4 of 10 drafts.
  10. tobi0040
    It is hard for me to see a scenario where Hughes or Nolasco are pulled from the rotaiton next year. Gibson maybe but I am guessing he has a very long leash. I also think he turned the corner. I am not saying they all come up and have a sub 4.00 ERA, but I think they will get a significant amount of innings even if they don't have an ERA near that. May was shelled in about 2-3 starts, but his numbers at AAA were on different planets than his 10 starts or whatever it was up here. Milone does have a career ERA under 4.00 and I think Terry will want him to get innings for a look. Meyer is frankly more talented than all the others except maybe Hughes. He is also 25-26 years old. We may disagree on this one, but Terry may start the season with Pelfrey in hopes of salvaging that terrible contract. I can't rule it out. I am all for adding a very good starter via trade or signing if he is healthy, consistent, and has #2 starter potential. I don't see any on that list.
  11. tobi0040
    In fairness, you are leaving out another one year deal. He put up a 5.19 ERA and pitched 152 innings, then netted himself a 2 year extension.
  12. tobi0040
    I am going with the magic tricks.
  13. tobi0040
    We were looking at two different things. I was taking the difference between Owar and Dwar. At the end of the day I think giving a 35 year old with injury issues $20M and giving up the 15th overall pick is a bad idea. And that is whether he is a 1.2 WAR guy or .75 WAR guy. Ideally you have a 24-25 year old in your system that can do that. Two 25 year olds platooning should certainly be able to. Aaron Hicks has a career OPS of .750 against lefties and Arcia has a career OPS around .850 against righties. So the two of them would have to be at least at 1.2 WAR and that is a $1M commitment and you keep the 15th overall pick.
  14. tobi0040
    Nobody, but I wanted to highlight this is not a sustainable way to do things.
  15. tobi0040
    I guess my question for the Mets would be....if a guy has totaled 10.8 WAR over 14 seasons (.77 WAR a year) through ages 22-35. He is now 35 and has missed 190 games over the last three years, why are you forecasting a WAR of more than .75 a year? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?redir
  16. tobi0040
    They have a payroll at $90M before the Cuddy signing. Baseball reference has him at under a WAR a year for his career... If we assume he will be at .75 WAR this year. For $10M. To add 11 wins (for a total of 90) I get to a payroll of $236M.
  17. tobi0040
    I have him at 1.8 oWAR - .9 dWAR = .9 WAR at Baseball reference. For his career, 26 oWAR and -15dWAR. i.e. not a real valuable player. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?redir
  18. tobi0040
    Methinks if a team gave up a first round pick every year for a 35 year old with injury issues, who has averaged 1 WAR a year over his career. Sure it is certain that player will be in the MLB this year. But it is also certain in the long run that will be a terrible team with a very high payroll.
  19. tobi0040
    We are not winning the world series in 2015. My preference is either add a guy that is for sure better than the five we have (only four FA qualify for me)...or give innings to young players and let them develop. As far as I am concerned, the list presented are a bunch of guys with warts. A one year deal for a guy that I would not want to exend even if they had a good year just is not the proper risk/reward. Best case you flip them but they are taking innings from a potential future fixture in the process. If Anderson or Masterson pitch a good 180 innigs for us next year, I don't want to see us hand out a 3-4 year extension north of $12M for a guy with the histories they have.
  20. tobi0040
    Cuddy has a total of 14.9 WAR over 14 years. The biggest issue with giving up first round draft picks for 35 year old free agents is the fact that if the draft pick pans out you can get 6-7 relatively cheap years of peak production if you do it right. Then you can sign the guy longer if you like, or in many cases get draft pick compensation back in the event he leaves. 18% seems low....but that is an 18% shot at getting 7 years of ages 23-29 or so for under $30M. Versus Cuddy at 35-36 who is not a 100% proposition. He has missed 190 games over the last three years. In 2012 Cuddy's dWAR offset his Owar. In 2013 Cuddy's dWAR negated 2.6 of his 3.7 oWar (net 1.1 WAR when he won a batting title) In 2014 Cuddy was worth .9 wins. You just can't start with 79 wins and add $10M to your salary for every .5-1 WAR and get to the playoffs without a payroll under about $250M.
  21. tobi0040
    When the Twins had absolutely nothing at AAA in 2012 and 2013, they should have been signing the high upside guys on 1 year make good deals left and right. Right now you have three locks in the rotation (Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson) and three other guys that need innings (Meyer, May, and Milone). I am for giving these guys innings now over the 1 year thing.
  22. tobi0040
    I am with Jorgenswest. Give me a guy that is better than everyone else or roll with what we have. Regarding Ventura....his numbers in his last year at AAA were very similar to Meyer's last year. Ventura 77 IP 3.74 ERA 3.9 BB per 9. 9.5 K per 9. 2.45 k/bb Meyer 131 IP 3.52 ERA 4.4 BB per 9. 10.6 K per 9. 2.39 k/bb All he did was come up at pitch 180 IP at a 3.20 ERA this year. His walk rate was 3.4 per 9. The key is a high k rate (7.8 per 9), lower hit rate (8.3) and low HR rate of .7 per 9 more than offset the additional runner via BB every say 18 innings.
  23. tobi0040
    I read a chat by Shoenfeld from ESPN. He ripped on the Rockies for making Cuddy a QO about four times. Towards the end, he was asked what was the most surprising QO he saw...he started answering those questions with "other than Cuddyer, my most surpsing was...." Now they got a pick in the mid 40's and the Mets lose their 15th.
  24. tobi0040
    That is a fair point. But his numbers at yankee stadium were the biggest difference, in my opinion between last year and every year since 2009 or whatever. The other immeasurable is confidence. Getting shelled for 3 HR a start at Yankee stadium, then booed all the time had to get in his head.
  25. tobi0040
    I looked up the wrong team (colordado, not New York). NYM was 79-83. good catch. Does not excuse them though!
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