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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    We do have one documented time where Puckett offered Hunter money out of his "fat wallet"
  2. tobi0040
    Vargas looks like a left tackle and will only get bigger as he ages. He has no defense to learn....his job is to hit and hit only. In 2012 he has an OPS of 1.030. In 2013 he has an OPS of .813. In 2014 he had an OPS of .832 at AA, with 17 HR's in 97 games at AA and the Twins decided he was probably ready. He responded by putting up an OPS of .772 and hitting 9 HR in 52 games. A pace of 28 for a full year at the big league level as a 23 year old (162 games). He was second on the team in OPS. I can't say he won't ever need to go to AAA and refine something, but I think he needs to give the Twins a reason for a demotion.
  3. tobi0040
    The other thing to note with him is that his K's fell off completely between the minors and pro's. I think he will be a better than 4.5-5 K per 9 guy. He won't be a 7.5 or 8 k per 9 guy.....but if he can be north of 6 with a good ground ball rate he can be an effective pitcher for us.
  4. tobi0040
    I agree in concept. But the Twins are not going to owe a guy $38M over three years and give Trevor May his job if he has a better spring training.
  5. tobi0040
    Crap.
  6. tobi0040
    I agree, but I don't think Ervin is in that group. I think we want a one year deal and my gut says he gets more. I could be wrong though, would have thought that last off-season.
  7. tobi0040
    My understanding is the human element in UZR would not have Twins representation, or it would be very limited. I could be wrong though. On a related note, my five year old daughter said I am the best daddy in the world.
  8. tobi0040
    Not to mention Hunter pushes payroll to $90M, which limits the pitcher we will go after. I think the move was to get clear upgrades. The guys that improve our OF defense and starting pitching, yet were also in our price range were Colby Rasmus and Ervin Santana. Obviously not going after Rasmus now and I don't think we are going to really spend on a pitcher. Maybe we could have signed an OF for $3M that is a good defender and platoon your way to decent offense to go with it, then had money fro Ervin or to take on salary via trade. I would also note that the 2012 and 2013 Twins were more of a destination for the reclamation project like Brett Anderson. A guy like that needs innings and he is probably going to come by them easier somewhere else (I think that is why Boras wanted Pelfrey to sign here initially and why Harden chose MN). We have three guys locked in, Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson. Two other guys we really want to see succeed, Pelfrey and Milone, and two youngs guys we want to get innings (May and Meyer).
  9. tobi0040
    I would suggest a potential for bias. The UZR ratings and other metrics would seem relatively impartial to me. Twins scouts rating a fan favorite, likeable guy that reminds us of when we were good may have rose colored glasses on.
  10. tobi0040
    90 seems a tad optimistic! But Meyer comes up and lights things up, Sano and Burdi provide a shot in the arm and Nolasco returns to the 4.30 guy he has always been..... You and I know Torii Hunter will get all the credit. And Molitor, for the wisdom of bringing Torii in.
  11. tobi0040
    I am guessing after 2,100 games played, he would have to end on a really, really high note the last year or two to move his OPS + up 5 or 10 points.
  12. tobi0040
    We say that now, but the 2015 and 2016 Twins will be better and the non Beradino reporters will stick a microphone in everyones face and ask "how much of a mentor was Torii Hunter?" He was great, he changed the culture here and helped me with x, y, and z
  13. tobi0040
    I think you are focusing on the tally stats a little too much. But Kent had a career OPS of .855 and OPS + of 123 versus Hunters .799 and 111. Guessing two additional years makes the non-tally stats look worse.
  14. tobi0040
    I don't want a meddling owner like Daniel Snyder or Jerry Jones. But I would like some pointed questions to the staff, particularly the GM when we make decisions like this. Force the guy to do a little bit of bench-marking with peers. Ask for a detailed presentation on why our approach is the right one. Or how about go back 3-5 years on all free agency decisions. What our thought process was at the time and if the strategy worked. If not, lets re-evaluate the strategy.
  15. tobi0040
    Yeah, he gets on the ballot. Eddie Guardado made the ballot. I am guessing he gets a few votes from the "he meants a lot to baseball in MN, they were almost contracted", etc. crowd. But the numbers are nowhere near close. Baines has a career OPS + of 121 with a .289 avg, 2,850 hits. 388 HR, and over 1,000 BB's. His highest vote total was 6.1%. Torii has a career OPS + of 111, .279 avg, 2,327 hits. 331 HR, and 626 BB's.
  16. tobi0040
    I hear Goin has been spotted slumped over in a booth at The Local.
  17. tobi0040
    This is quite interesting. In 35 games, the worst single game report has Hunters range at average (Twins scouts). And he could slide into CF for a few games and we would "not miss much". http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/
  18. tobi0040
    Does anyone else find it funny that the Twins say they still think Torii can play defense, yet they moved Arcia to left? Isn't that an indictment that we feel Arcia > Hunter, so much so that it is worth moving the 23 year old out of his long term position? Or did the Twins take a look at last year and say, we need to give Acia more space to chase balls down!
  19. tobi0040
    I don't have time to list the things I would have done before signing Hunter.
  20. tobi0040
    We still have Duensing.....
  21. tobi0040
    While I agree with you. What should happen and what will happen are different.
  22. tobi0040
    I think we have a 22 year old DH that is 270 pounds. We are content letting him ride there. We have a 1B that isn't moving. Given that Arcia is a long term RF in Minnesota, I think we should leave him there. I don't think moving a 23 year old who struggles in the OF around is a good idea.
  23. tobi0040
    Day 1 is figure out who the pitcher is before arriving to the park.
  24. tobi0040
    They have probably talked themselves into....Hicks floundered becasue he didn't have anyone to mentor him. I see no way we pay Hunter $10.5M to mentor guys, then send Hicks to AAA. Zero reason to believe that will happen. With Arcia and Hunter in the corners, I am hoping we sign a cheetah trained to catch baseballs and put him in center.
  25. tobi0040
    I think we are probably done on position players outside of maybe a bench pickup if one we like hits the waiver wire. With Fien and Duensing back, I think we probably don't add another reliever and lean on our system to fill the void. I think the off-season will conclude with one starting pitcher in the 1-8 or 1-10 range. Someone that is about 30-33. Career ERA in the mid 4's. Probably had 1-2 good years out of 7-8 so far and we are somehow hoping they have that year again here. Probably missed some time with a shoulder injury or TJ. The types we seem to love that never pan out. If my prediction on the pitcher is accurate, we will have $26M locked into three players (Hunter, Pelfrey, and the FA pitcher). About 29% of our payroll devoted to three guys that will likely not produce a MLB average season (Hunter will likely be slightly above average for a typical RF offensively, well below defensively). That is certainly an interesting way to construct a roster.
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