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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Two questions for you. Do you think a guy with a career OBP of .300 and .630 OPS should see any amount of time batting 1st or 2nd? If so, which data point suggests this is the appropriate spot in the order? Which data point suggests that creating a weaker hitting lineup so you will not risk losing the DH in the event a catcher is hurt is a prudent one? Why has no other team deployed this strategy that Gardy has pioneered? You have curiously ignored this second portion of my two examples. Since we are moving onto accusations. I think some criticize Gardy at all costs. Sometimes off base. In response to that, you defend him at all costs, sometimes off base like this one. I simply suggested two instances where irrational fears and old school hard and fast rules have trumped data driven decisions. I don't think I am off base here. Nor has anything I said been hyperbolic. The things you have noted, like dumb, lazy, etc. have never been used by me. Here is an unbiased view from ESPN. The Twins, the franchise he has been the coach of the last 12 or so years were ranked in the "skeptics" category from an analytical standpoint, second from the lowest category and last in the AL central. They note bringing in Molitor "will bring an open mind to analytical discussion" http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#mlb-sfg Link to my blog with this story: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/415/entry-6358-espn-sabr-rankings/
  2. tobi0040
    The batting average of .220 was bit of an exagerration. But the point remains. His career OBP was .302. His career OPS was .631. He saw half of his at bats hitting 1 or 2. I am guessing those numbers were dramatically lower than the league average. If that is not evidence that Gardy heavily favored speed over OBP, I am not sure what will convince you. My criticisms of him have been rooted primarily with some semblence of data.
  3. tobi0040
    I guess I don't follow why this or even runs created is what we should be looking at. For one RBI is a very poor stat. Over the course of players career, this number tends to fluctuate a ton based on opportunities and BA with RISP becomes a small sample every year. But if we agree that Mauer will lead the team in OBP, which is close to a given and we buy that he is poor at driving in runners and hitting HR's (less of a fact), then that is exactly why you want him 1st versus 2nd or 3rd.
  4. tobi0040
    In 2009, Lexi saw half of his AB's batting #2 and he finished the year hitting .202 and was OBP 28% of the time. In 2007 he hit first or second 60% of the time while hitting .222 and a .256 OBP. Granted these are a few hundred AB's a year, but it is the logic that was most concerning to me. Gardy has said before he likes speed at the top of the order. Outside of the year in which he was on base 32% of the time, he should have never been considered there. I just don't think he used data to make decisions. The third catcher could be refuted in five minutes with Microsoft Excel.
  5. tobi0040
    ESPN rankings for SABR metrics Twins were in the skeptic category, second from the worst. Some teams have quants from nasa and Phd's, we have "an mba from local st thomas" Kc and cleveland get good grades http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#mlb-sfg
  6. tobi0040
    Great stat jimmer. To pile on, santana had a babip that was 18 percent higher, which won't last. In addition to dozier and mauer behind him and fewer outs at least 20 percent of the time. Look at it in football terms. The difference between a fast Rb and slow LB is about 3-4 tenths of a second running 120 feet. So I just don't see the speed difference between mauer and santana making up for the 5 or more percent of the time mauer is in base. There has to be a break even point between the two. Seems well past it to me.
  7. tobi0040
    Gunn, I just think anyone that keeps three catchers and bats Lexi Casilla 2nd because he is fast, while he hits 220 and doesn't take walks, is really is stuck in his ways.
  8. tobi0040
    The way I see it. Mauer is likely to be on base 39 to 40 percent of the time. At this point, nobody else on this team is a lock to be on base more than 35 percent of the time. No amount of speed makes up for that 4 or 5 plus percent gap, IMO. Give me a runner on first with no outs and I will take my chances. Joe's career OBP is .401. Santana needed a .319 average to have a .353. His BABIP was .405 last year. If Danny's BABIP is reasonable next year he may hit .280 or so, and using his 5% walk rate you get .330. We could have a situation where Joe is on base 21% more often. At some point you have a trade-off between speed and being on base more. I would think anything approaching 10% or more would vastly exceed that point. I really hope that the new Twins get rid of old baseball rules like "I need speed at the top of the order" and actually run scenarios based on numbers.
  9. tobi0040
    I have to say he would probably love to be out on the field in spring training working with guys, but realizes that he would be a distraction and the players need to see Molly as the guy. Pretty commendable.
  10. tobi0040
    But would you agree that the type of guy hired this off-season is a different guy than Ron Gardenhire? Even the guy that was #2 on our list (Luvollo). And the dynamics about owing the old coach money happens every year. And it didn't seem like any of the old school guys fired two years ago were much of factor this year.
  11. tobi0040
    As far as I can tell, seven openings appeared this year. Here were the hirings. Seems like teams are going for younger coaches. Only three are over 50, one worked for the A's, Molitor who is thought of as a smart guy, and Banister who really likes SABR metrics. Just seems like this trend does not favor Ron Gardenhire. Ten years ago it seemed the Sparky Anderson types just rotated seats every year but not anymore. Chip Hale 51. Never a head coach before. In the A’s minor league system from 2011 to 2013. Maddon – not a new hire, per se. Thought of in high regards of the SABR community Ausmus - 46 years old. Coached in SD’s organization. Never a head coach. Hinch 41 years old. Never coached before. Scouting background as well as coaching Molitor – 58. Never coached before. Thought of as a smart baseball mind. Cash. 38 years old. Never coached before. Banister - 51 years old. Wiki says he got farmiliar with SABR metrics working closely with the Pirates Quant guy as early as 2010. http://espn.go.com/mlb/managers
  12. tobi0040
    I think it is completely fair. I think the same reasons why the Twins needed a change are reasons that would give some teams pause of hiring him. I think minor league and bench coaches under people like Maddon, Boston, etc. would be higher on the pecking order than Gardy. To my knowledge, nobody reached out to him this off-season.
  13. tobi0040
    I think Gardy may have a tougher time than he thinks. I think the game is changing and he never changed with it. Nothing in his history suggests he is open to changing, IMO.
  14. tobi0040
    To each its own, but if I was his age and have career earnings in the 8 figures.....I would be on the boat for good.
  15. tobi0040
    I don't think you can compare buxton and sano on ops. Scouts think buxton can win 2 or 3 games with defense per year and swipe 50 or more bases (and a solid lock on his position). So he has some things going for him to close the ops gap.
  16. tobi0040
    Let me start by saying their is a lot of room between not as good as cabrera and a really good baseball player. But best case was Sano debuting last year at 21 without surgery. Cabrera came up at 20. Had a 793 ops and followed up that with an 879 at age 21. The guy won a triple crown and is 15th all time in ops. He is an all time great. Personally I just don't think Sano will ever have the batting average that will allow him to exceed a career 960 ops. But I still think he is going to be really, really good
  17. tobi0040
    Chief, I had the caveat that I am assuming health and longevity. If Sano has that I think he hits enough for at least one of the 15 DH positions, 30 1b positions, etc. I really do. I think he clubs 30 plus hr a year and racks up some walks. So even if he hits 250 he has a job and can rack up an ops of 850.
  18. tobi0040
    I don't see Miguel's ceiling as being above Miguel cabrera's. You are talking about a career 320 hitter. I just don't see that kind of BA to go along with the power and walks. I know someone will say that BA is outdated, but I don't see if Miguel is a 270 hitter how the other metrics like ops will match cabrera's.
  19. tobi0040
    I guess I took some of the comments as we should move on from Arcia in the OF for example. Those moves would require cutting bodies at this point. If you are saying we can't count on many of these guys, I agree. But right now we don't know who will emerge and who won't and we don't need to make decisions yet. If Buxton appears this summer, than the weakest link may have to go but at that point we will have more data available. Or better yet they are all playing well and we can flip one of them.
  20. tobi0040
    I guess I don't know who you give up on at this point? Like it or not, 1B is covered. You move Arcia and Vargas to DH and you need to trade one. Hicks is a huge talent. Rosario is talented and very young. We should be in no rush here and should let these guys play themselves out of the premium positions that would suit the team the best in the future. Hicks is 25. Rosario is 23. Vargas is 24 and skipped AAA to have an OPS of .854 (OPS plus of 115) . He hit 26 HR last year between AA and MLB. And Arcia at ages 22/23 has a .743 OPS, an OPS plus of 104 and hit 34 HR in 200 games. Having given up on Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy at much older ages than these guys makes me think we should let this ride.
  21. tobi0040
    I think we are crowded in the OF right now. Not with established MLB players that are part of the future. But with young, talented guys that we need to see if they are in the future plans or not. We have arguably the games best prospect coming up as early as June in CF. Arcia needs a little more time to see if he can play a corner. Hicks will probably get a few more months and Rosario could emerge this year. Obviously signing Torii does not help this equation, but in that sense and knowing that we are not winning the world series next year....I think we are pretty crowded.
  22. tobi0040
    Schmidt won 10 gold gloves and ended his career with a d WAR of 18. I don't see even the rosiest of rose colored glasses thinking Sano has any shot at those numbers at 3B. Schmidt was 6'2 and 195 pounds. Sano is 6'4 and 260 as a 21 year old and he needs to improve his footwork. I think multiple gold gloves would be a huge stretch at this point. I think the Twins would be happy if he sticks at 3B and can play adequete defense there for multiple years.
  23. tobi0040
    If he has a .571 slugging and an OPS of .915 the strikeouts seem moot to me.
  24. tobi0040
    I would need to know what Sano has been able to do this off-season. I think that goes a long way. But I don't expect Sano to just start out hitting a HR every few games, 2B, taking a ton of walks.
  25. tobi0040
    I think Jimmer was suggesting Plouffe can play 3B defensively and we don't know if Sano can. Which is fair. We need to ensure Sano can play there first. We went a very long time between good 3B....Koskie to Plouffe IMO.
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