Teflon

Lawrence George "Moose" Stubing had the same number of wins in his 8-game career managing the Angels as he had hits in his 5-game career playing for the Angels.

Despite their 5-14 record, the Twins are only 5 and a half games out of first. They could easily be 9 or 10 out.

Since the 2012 Twins challenging early portion of the schedule is cited as one of the reasons for the team's poor start, I was curious to see if the Twins struggled as mightily in the same matchups played in the same ballparks in 2011 and 2010. Here's the comparison: 2012: 5-14, 71 runs scored, 109 runs given up 2011: 6-13, 73 runs scored, 90 runs given up 2010: 11-8, 79 runs scored, 61 runs given up* *The Twins only played 3 games in New York in 2010 as opposed to 4 played there this year. I substituted the first Yankee game played at Target Field in order to have the same number of games. It's sort of yes and no in that regard. The Twins only won one game more versus these opponents last year but surrendered a full run less per game than this year's team. Perhaps last year's team had already approached the point where the run disparity to win probability slope against good teams flattens out. What we should be alarmed about is that the pitching decline will have a more profound impact on the chances of winning versus the Kansas City's of the world.

Mauer's definitely got something to prove this year after all the bad fan vibe last year. This just affirms how valuable it is for us to continue being as negative as possible as frequently as possible!

No surprise. The novelty factor only lasts two years with a new ballpark. Then attendance goes back to being mostly influenced on competitiveness. The Brewers dropped from 2.8 million their first year in Miller Park to 1.7 in their third with a 68-94 record, the Pirates dropped from 2.4 million to 1.6 by their third season (75-87) at PNC, the New York Mets dropped from 3.2 million to 2.4 million by their third year (77-85) and the Tigers dropped from 2.4 million to 1.5 million by their third season in Comerica (55-106) to cite a handful of similar situations.

I miss the days when you could catch an opposing GM with a few cocktails in him and pull off a Pierzynski for Nathan, Liriano, & Bonser deal. Now they are all ex-hedge fund managers who run everything through a Bayesian inference first. We need to upgrade.

This is my favorite so far.

The Fort Myers Miracle recently had a promotion where they offered free tickets to any fan who could surpass the speed of a Jamie Moyer fastball at the team's fast pitch booth. (78 mph) Given the Twins rough start to the season they could probably generate additional interest from a similarly themed fan challenge. Please share your best suggestions.

Matt Hauser Pitcher, Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Gulf Coast League Drafted in the 7th round (225th overall) by the Minnesota Twins in 2010 (signed for $45,000) Height: 6-2 Weight: 195 Bats: Right Throws: Right Born March 30, 1988 in Newport Beach, California, (Age 24), son of Sandra and Peter Hauser 2006 graduate of Corona Del Mar High School in Newport Beach (Sea Kings) College Career 2007-2008: Orange Coast College (Pirates) in Costa Mesa, California Made 42 appearances, pitching 113 1/3 innings, going 12-4 with a 3.26 ERA and 59 K's. Trivia: Twins outfielder Marty Cordova also attended OCC 2009-2010: San Diego University (Toreros) [ ] Pitched in 23 games as a junior, (3 starts) posting a 5-2 record with a 4.82 ERA with 40 K's and 13 walks in 52 1/3 innings. Pitched exclusively as a reliever in senior season making 26 relief appearances and going 4-3 with 8 saves in 41 2/3 innings with a 3.67 ERA, 37 K's and 9 BB's. Pro Career 2010: Assigned to Elizabethton in the Appalachian Rookie League, where he pitched 8 games in relief, surrendering only 1 earned run and registering 3 saves with 13 K's and 2 walks in 9 innings. Promoted to Beloit in the Midwest League (A) where he pitched another 4 games in relief without surrendering a run, picking up a win and a save while striking out 4 and walking 1. 2011: Began the season with the Beloit, pitching in 17 games. He compiled a 3-0 record with 5 saves and a 1.40 ERA for the Snappers, striking out 27 batters and walking 13 in 19 1/3 innings. Promoted to the Fort Myers Miracle in the High A Florida State League in mid-season where he pitched in 24 more games with a 2.16 ERA, 7 saves and struck out 44 while walking 16 in 41 2/3 innings. He was promoted to AA New Britain in the Eastern League at season's end, pitching 2 2/3 innings in his lone game, while striking out 4. Combined, Hauser went 5-6 with 12 saves and a 1.98 ERA across three levels, pitching 63 2/3 innings in 42 games, allowing only 53 hits while striking out 75 and walking 29. Links:Matt Hauser at Baseball Reference Matt Hauser at The Baseball Cube Twins 2012 Prospect Watch - No. 20 Matt Hauser Fort Myers Miracle - Matt Hauser

Pavano is probably gone either way. It would only make sense for the Twins keep him beyond the trading deadline if they were in a pennant race. Otherwise, he's a great back of the rotation add-on for some team in need. Doumit could go if there is another Buster Posey-like situation where a top-level team loses a starting catcher and the Twins could get some desperation value in return - but we wouldn't get enough back otherwise to justify the revisions to the organizational catching plans. (I'm assuming we have organizational catching plans.)

If Liriano stays in the rotation, he could threaten for THE worst ERA for a starting pitcher since the mound got lowered in 1969: 30 games or more started: Jose Lima, KC Royals 2005, 5-16 6.99 ERA 20 games or more started: Mike Moore, Detroit Tigers 1995, 5-15 7.53 15 games or more started: Steve Blass, Pittsburgh Pirates 1973, 3-9 9.85

Matt Hauser?

Fun to think about. You're optimistic the Twins will resign Morneau in 2014, I see. Unless he takes a pay cut, his age and likely salary ($10 million+?) would make that an uncharacteristic signing by the Twins considering their past history with players at that stage like Torii and Cuddyer. I'd more expect Mauer to fill in at 1B/DH and still catch some. The Twins also still have an option on Span in 2015, who will only be 31, so I would think it's likely he's still in the outfield somewhere. What about the pitching staff?

Reasons to be optimistic about Liriano on the mound today: 1.) He will be fresh. In his three starts he's only thrown 74, 91 and 76 pitches. 2.) Only two of the 22 hits he's surrendered have been homeruns. 3.) His mound opponent, Jeff Niemann, is also 0-2 and has also failed to pitch past the 5th inning yet. 4.) Francisco has gotten over 5 runs per game of run support from the Twins this year compared to only 3.8 last season. Outlook: A modest bounce-back game from him today.

Saturday, April 21st, Twins 1 , Rays 4 in St. Petersburg Why we lost: The contrast of 6th-inning outcomes. Twins - Doumit lines out with bases loaded and 2 outs in the top of the 6th. (+11%) Rays - With bases loaded and 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th, Upton singles to deep CF, 3 runs eventually score as Span's throw to 3rd hits the runner. (+31%)

I recall Bill James saying in an Abstract that the ony real logic he could see for the batting order would be to ensure that the best run-created guys got the most at-bats over the course of the season. Outside of breaking up strings of consecutive LH batters so the opposing situational lefty can't be used for multiple hitters the specific assumptions that seem to be rote for each of the batting order spots aren't really backed up by hard facts, are they?

Andrew Albers and James Marsden - separated at birth?

Sort of fitting that Humber's battery mate for the perfecto was one Anthony John Pierzynski. When you stop and look at it, it's been a pretty nice career for A.J. - A World Series ring, made two All-Star teams, catches a no-hitter and a perfect game.

I'm in! Now I wish this was a coed sport...

Shouldn't the Twins be considering a 4th catcher? If Mauer and Doumit both get hurt in a game, that leaves us dangerously thin.

Do we think the Twins will make Sano's (.314/.453/.765) stay in Beloit a short one? Fort Myers currently has a committee plan at 3B (Jairo Perez, Andy Leer, Anderson Hidalgo) so a Sano move to the Miracle wouldn't be too disruptive, organizationally.

Friday, April 20th, Twins 5 , Rays 4 in St. Petersburg Why we won: Jason Willingham's biggest hit of the year - a 3-run double to CF in the top of the 7th off Peralta brings the Twins back from down 4-2. (+47%) Why we were worried: A Twins starter again showed good distance on his pitches. Hendriks surrenders a 2-run HR to Longoria (-28%) in the bottom of the 6th after a bases-loaded double play gave us hope the Twins might get out of the inning still tied. Hendriks also gave up a solo HR to Matt Joyce an inning earlier. Twins pitchers have now given up a generous 22 HR in 14 games.

Thursday, April 19th, Twins 6 , Yankees 7 in New York Why we lost: Swarzak mistaken for Yankees batting practice pitcher. (2 2/3 innings - 8 hits, 3 homeruns. Biggest Win probability plays off Swarzak: Granderson 2-run HR in bottom of 2nd (19%), Teixeira 2-run HR in bottom of first (16%), Jeter RBI single in bottom of 2nd. (10%) Biggest Missed opportunities:Parmelee K in top of 9th with no outs and man on 2nd (10%), Morneau K in top of 7th with 1 out and runners on 1st and 2nd (9%), Span ground out in top of 8th with 2 outs and a runner on third. (9%) Why we made it close: Doumit 6th inning 2-run HR off Hughes (-16%), Doumit 1st inning 2-run single off Hughes (-15%), Valencia 8th inning lead-off double off Robertson.

C'mon - it's Joe's birthday today!

Am I allowed a dissenting opinion?