Mike Sixel
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Everything posted by Mike Sixel
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Looked like you added three extra words to your thread title........pick the best player, you don't know if anyone worth signing will be there later.
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I can handle Gladden doing color.....
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Did anyone read the ESPN story this week about how bad the FA market will be next year? Don't worry, there are plenty of bargain basement bad players.....so the Twins will be active.....
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What's more risky, signing a very good to great player to a long term deal, or going with nothing? Somehow it is better to have no good pitchers for a couple of years, than to take the risk that at the end of a contract a guy might not be good? I keep typing numbers to refute that Greinke would not have hurt their future salary structure, and not one person on the other side refutes the actual details of the analysis, they keep typing "it would hurt their future ability to sign players" without even looking at the salary structure at that point. The Twins are cheap. They have plenty of money, and will not spend it. They get $25MM in free revenue next year, and lost every player but 1 that makes more than $4MM a year within 2 years. And people worry they could not sign Greinke or Sanchez. I don't get it.
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Don't be afraid to judge my motives without ever having met me. Stick to the logic, and not judging the posters' motives.
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What would make Morneau think they can win next year? What asset has come up this year that would make him think that? I'm genuinely curious about that. Have you seen the list of FA pitchers next year, when the entire league has $25MM more to spend, you think players will have better value?
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You want to back that tax subsidy statement up? I know with certainty that 1 stadium was built with zero subsidy, so that's at least one that is smaller. And no, I'm not moving because of this, that would cost me even more. We have no idea what percent of revenue they spend on payroll. And when the MLB adds revenue that comes with no expense, I'd want the ratio to increase, not just pad their profit with another $12MM. Maybe that's unrealistic.
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A: no, I have no issue with the Twins generating a profit. B: of course not, but I also don't want to give them a tax subsidy, and then have them not spend the money to put a better product on the field. Not once in this thread have I actually demanded success, trying yes, but not succeeding. That's a different thread entirely.
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Mauer's Caught Stealing Percentage
Mike Sixel replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No idea, but isn't stealing down overall this year? And I agree with Storm, it is a largely over rated skill, unless you are extremely bad. -
Ninety million? With Morneau and Blackburn and Carroll coming off the payroll, you expect it to go up next year? Oh, and they get $25MM more in free revenue next year....so ya, lots of money will be pocketed, even if it goes up a few million.
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Ya, and I tried so hard to avoid thread the first couple days......I'm done. I've killed my point.
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My proposal: Feel free to spend under $81MM if you want (adjusted for baseball inflation, and adding $25MM more next year).....but when you do, pay more for the stadium. So, let's just say inflation was worth $7MM or so.....so take $88MM, and subract out the start of the year payroll, and divide by two....then multiply by 80% and pay that much in taxes. Then take the payroll after the trade deadline, subtract that from $88MM, divide by two and multiply by 80%, and pay that much in taxes. If the Twins want to make 20% more by cutting payroll from the dome days, adjusted for baseball inflation and increases in national revenue, fine.....but the other 80% of that excess profits should go to paying down the bonds on the stadium early.* *edited for speeling and to add this: And for the NHL, NBA, and NFL teams, if you spend less than 95% of the cap, pay 80% of that in excess profits' tax.
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Twins have their two best pitchers going, so I could see 2 wins......as for reaching for the stars to be more than you are, I'm not sure that works if you are a fan and not a participant in the event, but let's hope your post has the intended effect, assuming you made any such post.....
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Anyone want to bet on the over/under next year compared to this year? How about 2015 or 2016, as they replace veterans with even more freeish players? Not to mention the free $25MM they get in revenue, which I'd think could 100% be spent on players, and they'd still be making the same money if they didn't have it......which they could not have been counting on when they asked for a new stadium at taxpayers' expense.
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NO, they should have signed Greinke because he's really good, and they have the money, and they have the need. Replace Pelfrty with Greinke this year......how many wins is that do you think? 5? 10? I'd guess in the 5-7 range. If you thought they were a .500 team this year, add 7 more wins and you are in the WC hunt. If you thought there were a 75 win team, well, what about next year or the year after, when they are a .500 or better team, and Greinke is still on the roster and good. BTW, who is the best FA pitcher next year? Yuck. This isn't a 1 year deal, this is a 4-6 good to great years deal. and yes, I know you are as frustrated as me that they continue to dumpster dive for FAs.
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$120MM payroll.....which seems low given the free $25MM they get starting next year..... Mauer - 97 MM left Diamond - 90 MM left (going with a three year, 21MM deal) Plouffe - 87MM left Perkins/Burton/? - 77MM left 4 OFers making the minimum, rosario, sano, escobar/floriman/dozier, backup catcher - 72MM left even if you spent all that 72MM on 10 players, they average more than 7MM each.....like that is going to happen. let's increas the total from the numbers above, but assume 2 more relief pitchers are in there.....let's say that 20MM is in those numbers, meaning you have $52MM to spend on 6-10 players......is that not enough to sign Grienke as one of those players? Maybe not, maybe somehow they will go out and sign like 5 FAs that make in that $7MM range, but does anyone see that coming?
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I've seen those studies, but you just made my argument.....all those guys will need to be replaced, and even if they signed Greinke, they'd have the money to do that! That's the point, plenty of money is coming off the books, and they are $15-30MM under the number that they would be at if the team was any good. Even signing Greinke, they still have a TON of money to sign other players, once the few players making money now leave. Not to mention all the money they are banking right now that could be re-invested in the team later. If all those prospects come up in 2 years (which they aren't), that's 6 years from today before they make real money. At that point, you have 2 years left of Grienke, and, oh, you have something like $50MM in new revenue or cost reduction to sign them, or others.
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I did not say 1 thing about the GM and the drafts in this thread, and I've already acknowledged I was wrong about international signings..... What flexibility are they taking away in the future? You all keep typing that, but where is the money going that would tie up flexbility? Correia, gone. Pelfrey, gone. Blackburn, gone. Morneau, gone. Willingham, gone. That leaves Mauer and Perkins as the only players making money. Maybe Plouffe is up for money, maybe, but if Sano is up, is Plouffe on teh roster? Dozier, not likely. Really, you keep typing that the money won't be there, but outside Mauer, they will be spending at or near the league minimum on more than 15 players, maybe more, for the next 5 years. If you assume a $120MM payroll is real, and it should be if $25MM more is coming in revenue, that leave 97MM outside mauer. If you have 15 guys making around a million on average, that leaves 72MM to sign the other players on teh roster. That's a lot of payroll flexibility. Plus, they are pocketing tens of millions this year and the next couple of years to use for signing bonuses or whatever..... Can someone explain to me what flexibility they lose if they have two guys making $48MM, if 15 others are making almost nothing? Look at this roster........take off Morneau, Blackburn, Willingham, and Doumit.....which is what is happening in the next 18 months. Are you all saying those salaries are not enough for flexibility, let alone the $20MM they could add (without even considering the $25MM in new revenue) and still have the payroll be around $100MM?
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Thanks for the update, encouraging news.
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Let alone the money coming off the books this year, and the money coming off the books with Blackburn, Morneau, and Willingham the following year. Even keeping the payroll flat+$25MM, they would have $25MM after signing Grienke to buy other players if they want, like anyone thinks they will.....
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While the other 24 guys are making close to the minimum, and you are banking like $20-50MM per year over the next several years, I'd think it is pretty self evident they can afford that money. Not one infielder or OFer will be making even $1MM per year, other than mauer, after 2014. Not one, unless Plouffe succeeds, and even then, he'll be lucky to be over $4MM. Only Diamond is likely to be making more than $3-4MM per year among all the pitchers for the next 3-6 years. There is plenty of flexibility, and plenty of money saved up to buy players. Explain to me where the extra $25MM is going for the next 6 years, other than the Pohlads' pockets.
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Manea with another bad outing....one NL scout said if this was a deep draft that he might not got in the first round! And Bryant will go to Colorado......meaning the Twins are left with a RH high schooler, HS catchers, and HS OFers......too bad you can't trade draft picks.
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Again, how are you screwed? 100% of Greinke's salary would have been paid for by new revenue, and you still have more than $15MM coming off the books after this year, and $7Mm the next, and they are well below what they could spend. How is the flexibility hurt at all, if they sign Greinke? You left Darvish off your list of FA pitchers.....he was a FA.
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Good point. I keep forgetting there is a cap now.