Mike Sixel

Two of the Yankees are awesome players, I'm not sure I understand the point. Gary Sanchez has 50 Hrs in his first 161 games......is somehow missing Posada an issue? Judge is top 10 in fWAR. Sanchez is 26th. Both are higher than any Twin. Actually, they have a third player with a higher fWAR than any Twin.

weird, maybe the article that I read that said "this year" was form 2014! anyway, thanks everyone.

hmmm, good question. Let me look again.... ah, they changed it THIS YEAR. The expanded roster includes the 40 man, yes. Was Moya on the 40 man in August? But, this does remove the "Perkins is on the playoff roster" question I had.

I loved some of those answers! And, he lives just 45 minutes away.

I don't know, this is what I read on line: For a player to be eligible for the postseason active roster, he must have either been on his club's expanded roster or disabled list as of midnight ET on August 31 of that year and not placed on the 60 day disabled list after August 1.[3] The one exception is for replacing players on the disabled list. so, if you weren't on the 25 man roster on Aug 31, you have to replace someone that goes on teh DL, right?

I get that, the question is about replacing Perkins. I thought if you weren't on the 25 man roster by Sept 1, someone had to be DL'd to be replaced. I must have it wrong.

would that require a DL trip?

meh, he didn't accuse them of anything, he made a snarky observation, imo.

It will matter if they make the post season and he's on the roster instead of someone that can help.

Congratulations to him!

I didn't watch much, but they must have played well. My son has Diggs and Cook on his team, so for one day he won.

That's why they have big giant studies that look at all possible outcomes, like success, failure, double plays, hits after you give up on bunting, etc. So we don't have to post all the individual outcomes and address them all independently.

well, 49% success at sac bunts, not at hitting for a hit. Not sure what you mean, actually.

they try more often, and they fail more than they succeed. That seems like a bad formula. But then, I was never a math major.

Interesting. I had read it was a lot more than that, compared to the AL average. Thanks for the info. Still hate it. The fact that the Clevelands are that far out front does suggest that perhaps this FO likes it more than the public would think. Kind of gets to my other point, I'm not sure many managers do all that much all that differently, over 162 games....

nicely played!

bonds. we don't know squat about the drugs they used back in teh days, because it's hidden. We don't squat about a lot of stuff. Bonds hit 73. It's a historical fact.

that was a general statement on averages, not on Molitor in specific. Like, the average temperature in a hospital being 98 degrees doesn't tell me much.....

I was working at Carlson Companies. They actually rolled tvs out to various public areas, and people just sat around stunned. It's still hard to believe, really.

That is a GREAT post. Nicely done!

I'm assuming they have conversations with him all during the year......and that he likes to bunt no matter what the math says. Some people just believe things, no matter what science/math say....

I know Eno Sarris has said he's tried, and he wrote an article on it a year or two ago. I think there are really two big issues: 1. Much, if not most, of their work is not in game strategy or tactics, but in leading a group of people day by day. That's hard to measure, especially if you don't have day to day access to the team, and you don't know which processes he controls vs the FO. Also, even if a team had some kind of internal measures of employee satisfaction or something, we'd never know about them. Culture and that stuff is hard to measure, and I'd bet MLB clubs aren't exactly at the fore front of that measurement. 2. Much of the success is really player driven. Even when you make the right decisions, it often doesn't work. Because the sample sizes are small for tactics, it's hard to measure. Take bullpen usage. I know Sarris tried to figure out if there was an issue with having RPs warm up, but not be used, or warm up in 2 innings. But, that data isn't kept anyplace, but it could have a big impact on that RP's performance. Or, take lineup construction. Studies show it might matter 1-2 games a year, maybe 1-2 more at the extremes. Since most of the time a manager will get things right, it won't matter much. That's really the issue, I think. There isn't much difference in how managers really act, so there isn't much data that shows anything other than the normal way to work. And, when a manager does something that isn't normal, it is only done a few times a year probably, so there isn't enough outcome differential for it to matter when compared to other managers. What's interesting about that, is that manager decisions, over the year, probably wash out a lot. But, in the context of the moment, they probably matter more than we know. People also tend to recall when things go horribly wrong when a move is made, but rarely remember when they go right (as expected most of the time). Yes, Molitor's love for the sacrifice bunt is painful. And yes, it might have cost them a run here and there. But, when you average it all out over the year, it comes out in the wash. That's why I actually like measurements that try not to take averages over the year, but look at discrete outcomes in a game. But even those are tiny differences usually. And even those wash out when you add them up (some negative, some positive). those are my theories, anyway.

Notes on Littell: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-zack-littell-knows-a-20-1-record-is-relative/

Sigh. It was an off hand remark in a chat, not "work" or "analysis". Sigh. Also, I'm confused, as Thrylos literally posted numbers that backed up what he said as factual.

excellent use of narrative, btw. It put a smile on my face.