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TheDean

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Everything posted by TheDean

  1. Good point. So in theory, Revere has fewer opportunities to "flex" his range in Philadelphia compared to playing at TF - therefore his ratings suffer because he's making fewer low-probability plays compared to league average? I can definitely buy that.
  2. 46% of Revere's innings in CF have been played in Philly. We've discussed how UZR takes a long time to regularize. I do not think that his cumulative UZR in Philly is accurate, but I think his UZR in MN was probably too high. The answer lies somewhere in the middle...around league average, which is exactly what it says (UZR/150 at 1.0 for his career in CF). If we're looking at just his stats in Philly or just in MN, the sample size is too small. Once we combine them, it matches the eye test. It says that he has a noodle arm, good range, and is somewhat error-prone (scores of -4.5, 8.8, -2.6, respectively). This is in agreement with what the fan bases in both cities have seen. There could be an argument for a reduction in range over time since no player can stave off aging, keeping in mind that we remember Revere in his prime. However, too SSS to say that definitively with UZR, which is where a combined Twins/Phillies fan would help (if that exists). I just have a feeling that MN fans are maybe biased by nostalgia, and Philly fans are biased by their saltiness over the trade (which includes their nostalgia for Vanimal ).
  3. During the last week, Peterson has had two more relief appearances. On the 13th he pitched a scoreless final inning at Brevard County, allowing a hit and a walk, but getting help from a double play ball (his first of the season). It was also his first appearance without a strikeout. In his most recent appearance, he gave up his second run of the year in two innings of relief against the Cubs. He struck out three, walked one, and allowed a double. So far he has seen a walk rate increase, though his other numbers have stayed close to where they were in the MWL. Too early to say too much, but he seems to be handling the new level pretty well. [TABLE] Year AgeDif Tm W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2014 -0.3 2 Teams 1 0 0.96 13 0 8 0 0 3 18.2 13 2 2 0 5 0 27 0 0 2 72 0.964 6.3 0.0 2.4 13.0 5.40 2014 0.1 CedarRapids 1 0 0.71 9 0 7 0 0 3 12.2 9 1 1 0 2 0 19 0 0 1 48 0.868 6.4 0.0 1.4 13.5 9.50 2014 -1.2 FortMyers 0 0 1.50 4 0 1 0 0 0 6.0 4 1 1 0 3 0 8 0 0 1 24 1.167 6.0 0.0 4.5 12.0 2.67 [/TABLE] Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 5/20/2014.
  4. On the Hicks vs Span vs Revere front, Hicks Bbref dWAR (-0.4) is sandwiched between Revere (-0.5) and Span (-0.3).
  5. You bring up a good point: A .076 increase in OBP over his stat line from this time last year? That's pretty decent. Hicks bats at the end of the lineup, and his OBP is his most important offensive attribute for the team right now. He has speed on the basepaths for Dozier, Mauer, and co to drive in. That's not to say that he couldn't use some improvement with the bat. Eventually he needs to cultivate some value with a decent SLG (it's pretty deplorable right now), but his game has always included walking. I think we're all biased against low AVG more than we should be. However, average and slugging are connected, and they'll both go up together if he can make better contact. .315 is better than PFlo's .194, Herrmann's .190, or even CC's .287. Granted, all of them have earned (or likely will earn in CC's case) demotions. It's possible that Hicks is next.
  6. In news that has nothing to do with this game, anyone see our guy Drew lighting up the gun the other day? According to PitchFX on a pretty decent sample of 7 career batters faced, he's got a nice mid-90s fastball and a mad knuckleball. They've got a second chance. Don't let Dickey happen again - it's time to bring this full circle and send Nunez to the Dodgers.
  7. And current season statistics from Bbref: [TABLE] Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2013 22 1.5 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 56 225 202 16 49 15 2 2 30 0 0 19 31 .243 .313 .366 .679 74 4 2 1 1 1 2014 23 1.5 CedarRapids MIDW A MIN 33 134 116 18 33 10 1 5 22 2 0 14 24 .284 .373 .517 .890 60 4 3 0 1 0 2 Seasons [/TD] [TD] 89 359 318 34 82 25 3 7 52 2 0 33 55 .258 .335 .421 .757 134 8 5 1 2 1 [/TABLE] Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 5/14/2014.
  8. A belated Adopt-a-Prospect for Mitch Garver. I figured that the leading offensive threat for a Twins affiliate deserves a thread here after 1.5 months of baseball. Name: Mitch Garver Position: C (also 1B and DH) Birthday: January 15, 1991 Birthplace: Albuquerque, NM College: University of New Mexico (4 yrs) Height/Weight: 6'1", 220 lbs Bats: R Throws: R Garver was picked by the Twins in the 9th round of last year's Amateur Draft in their blitz for battery components. The Twins' article on him after the draft describes him as an offense-first catcher, who struggled behind the plate in his early time at New Mexico. During that time, his ability with the bat was dismissed by MLB scouts as inflated by the league and the thin southwestern air. This resulted in him not being drafted until 2013 despite being named an All-American. The most promising aspect of Garver's game, in my humble opinion, is his durability. He reportedly started every game at New Mexico for three seasons straight. With Garver, the Twins drafted an offense-first counterbalance to the defense-first approach of their other college-level catcher from the first 10 rounds of that draft (Stuart Turner). Now halfway through May, Garver has put up some of the Kernels' best numbers at the plate, though he is admittedly old for the level. He has flirted with the Twins organization minor-league lead for OPS, largely as a result of a very healthy OBP and a more than healthy SLG. He is outpacing his numbers at Elizabethton from last year by a large margin (OPS .890 vs. .679), though in my unprofessional opinion, his current pace fits his college pedigree slightly better. He may be due for a little regression. Looking at BABIP, he is currently at .318, whereas he ended last year at .276. His true ability is somewhere in between... and I'll hope for/guess at .800. With respectable K% and BB%, he may be able to earn a second-half promotion depending on whether or not the Twins decide a switch needs to be made with the struggling catchers in Ft. Myers (though their BABIP numbers are also unsustainably low). Defensively, he has split time roughly 50/50 between C and DH, with 3 games at 1B. With so few games in the field, an account from someone who has been down to Cedar Rapids lately might be indicative of whether he's carried over his reported improvements from his senior season at New Mexico. Looking to the future, Garver will hopefully continue his pace as he and Haar currently comprise the new-look Kernels' offensive engine after last year's promotions.
  9. It's a shame that the current organizational OPS leaders (Vargas and Garver at .908) have nothing written about them from what I can tell. I'll add Garver to my adopted prospects if no one has taken him yet.
  10. I think a "good amount" and "this much" are two very different things. Arcia would have likely played nearly every day in the OF. He's got young legs and needs the experience. That leaves Willy and Kubel splitting LF in some kind of platoon, possibly switching DH with CC (where he belongs). In my highly unscientific opinion, that setup gives Kubel maybe 50% of the games in the OF or less. In summary, sure Kubel likely was expected to play some OF, but I don't think anyone would have expected 28 games started in the OF through game 36. In fact, I think he was expected to DH quite a bit. Starts at DH to-date: 0. Extra research from Bbref: Kubel has started >100 G in the OF once in his career: 124 GS in 2012 with Arizona. He's on pace for 126 currently, but I don't think anyone expects that pace to hold after the DL activations.
  11. Peterson has had two appearances since moving up to the FSL. On the 6th, he allowed a hit and a walk, striking out three in the eighth inning of a Miracle win over Bradenton. On the 9th, he struck out two and allowed one hit, pitching the seventh and eighth innings of a Miracle loss to Jupiter. Season ERA down to 0.54, K/9 at 13.8, and WHIP at 1.000 on 15.2 IP.
  12. It's one halfway decent start in AAA. Don't forget, he threw 3 CGs in Rochester last year, and 1 was a shutout. He has the potential to dominate AAA hitting...sometimes. Let's start pointing fingers when he's got 8 starts in MLB and an ERA in the sub 7.00 range.
  13. This sentence screams "mid-2000s Nick Punto."
  14. If you needed more reasons, Licey brought Ford on for the DWL postseason earlier this year. He was majorly clutch, and my coworker, who is a big Licey fan (grew up in DR) was really happy about the acquisition. Licey won the championship.... As such, I daresay SweetLou has more postseason success than almost any current Twins player. Leadership cred.
  15. Sounds perfect. I mean, who's better on the bench: a player who's maybe marginally better defensively than the other solution at SS (Florimon over Escobar) or a player who has over 400+ more professional games CF than the incumbant (Wilson over Escobar). If we're going to roster some subzero OPS+ players...Wilson is honestly a better fit currently than Florimon (or even Herrmann).
  16. The Twins batters have been more terrible at not getting struck out lately... What's the opposite of a silver lining?
  17. Why does the Cleveland commentary crew keep calling out Kubel in RF? "Kubel retreats" "Kubel goes back" "Kubel fetches the ball from the corner" It's the second inning, and they haven't noticed that "Kubel" has a jersey that says "Herrmann" on it?
  18. Fun fact: Florimon's 2014 OPS+ (-2) is lower than Nolasco's career OPS+ (-1). If the rules allowed it (they don't), you might consider using a DH in place of the SS instead of the pitcher.
  19. I think jokin meant that two bats can be added: Parmelee and Vargas For that to happen, only one 40-man move needs to be made: Parmelee.
  20. It's disappointing. At least he's going with Escobar since his bat has been pretty hot lately---- oh wait
  21. My glass half-full take: it won't be long before players start coming off the DL, and it's almost impossible (I hope) that PFlo and Herrmann aren't casualties in one of those moves. I have a vision of a team in which most players getting significant playing time can sport an OPS+ over 100. Maybe that's unrealistic, but the fact of the matter is that among players with significant playing time last year, only the M&M boys plus Dozier and Arcia (barely) could meet that mark. This year, pretty much everyone is performing at that clip, or close enough to be acceptable (Fuld is defense-first backup CF, Hicks is Hicks). The team's cumulative OPS+ is 102. Last year it was 92. Get rid of PFlo and Herrmann, insert Willy and Arcia, see Mauer return to career norm, and watch the team's OPS+ climb even more. Addition through subtraction...just like in the rotation. Get rid of Pelfrey, Hughes/Nolasco/Correia return to career norms, see the ERA+ climb. I still think that this team can play .500 ball.
  22. Wow! That's great to hear. When I said "only time will tell," I had no idea that "time" would mean later today.
  23. Peterson earned two more saves since his last appearance. In both instances, he pitched the final inning, not allowing a run. On May 1, he allowed a hit and struck out two, and on May 3, he did not allow a baserunner, striking out 1. As of this post, Peterson has seen 48 batters, striking out 19, walking 2, and allowing 9 hits - all singles. He has recorded a WHIP of 0.868 and an ERA of 0.71 on 12.2 innings. Based on my biased opinion, I think that Peterson could be due for a callup to Fort Myers by midseason, even if this dominance falters slightly. He put in time in Elizabethton, and has shown that he can make the batters of the Midwest League miss. He was drafted out of college, so he is admittedly a little old for the level. However, I understand that college draftee + good numbers does not always warrant promotion. We saw that with Walker in the Midwest League too. Only time will tell.
  24. I agree. Furthermore, Suzuki hasn't done anything to be taken out of the lineup either. I know that Zukes isn't part of the "long-term plan," but sitting 1 GB, the fan in me wants to see the lineup that gives the best chance for a win. That means Pinto/Suzuki monopolizing C/DH till Zukes cools down. Likewise, Colabello continues to be an old dog being taught new tricks in RF until he cools down enough to combine into a Kubeabello super player. We've said it a lot: it's a good problem to have. I mean, how often do your bench injury replacements become the hottest hitters in the AL exactly when injuries occur to your projected starters? For anyone suggesting a Hicks demotion, I just don't see it... I mean after the whole rigmarole with Toronto/Oakland, we finally got a net +2 on organizational CF depth (not to be confused with career SS trying to save MLB career, formerly acceptable 4th OFer with injury issues, nor athletic catcher who has played more games in RF in the bigs than in all his time in the minors combined). Now there are 2 competent OF defenders on the active roster. TWO! How exciting!
  25. Besides, if Arcia is up (and possibly Willingham too) in a game with Pinto at DH and Zukes at C, Pinto has to switch to catcher, and you've got 2 of Kubel/Hammer/Arcia/Colabello on the corners, that means the other two are on the bench. I dare say, those are the most potent pinch-hitting options I've seen in the last few years for our dear Twins. The advantage of this roster configuration is ridiculous. You get at least two ML-caliber at bats before you go to your pitcher. Heck, even Nunez and Fuld (or Nolasco?? ) could give you a chance for a hit late in the game. The other roster configuration option is to keep a 3rd catcher, put Herrmann in, and get roughly 0 ML-caliber at bats in that slot.
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