Jham

And it's not like savings from 1 year are rolled over into payroll in subsequent years with this franchise. It's added to the profit line.

Seriously? You cite a team record payroll from 7 years ago as evidence we're not cheap? You cite a hypothetical payroll which is looking less likely all the time as evidence of not being cheap? You use losing as an excuse for being cheap even though you're saying they're not cheap? You're claiming that by reaching a figure that would shatter the prior team record payroll but only bring us to a league average payroll is evidence of not being cheap? You reference the tv deal but not the subsidized stadium? You neglect the quotes from ownership before and after the stadium funding deals regarding payroll and player contracts? Come on. There's a hidden cost to waiting. Could have signed pitchers or made trades the last few years and we would have had those guys at Yankee stadium. Or they would have had to come here. Now the last few years are wasted.

Also, if you're willing to pay $34 mil/year for 3 years, how is $50 mil more for 3 more years outrageous?

What would Darvish command on a 1 year deal? How much would you have to pay him to turn down the additional years and money? $50-$60 mil? Then he's a free agent? Is he worth that? No. You'd be overpaying. So you're getting him at a market discount over the first couple years. You've financed the contract out over more payments. What you're actually having a problem with is the inflated cosy of high end free agents. Is a Manny's steak 5x as good as Applebee's? No. But is it significantly better? Of course. Pay the premium price or you never get the premium experience.

Will somebody teach Phil Hughes a knuckle ball already? Trevor May. Byron Buxton. Berrios. Same as last year. And the year before... fool me once...

Here's the conundrum as I see it: There can be only one champion at the end of the season. Although there are a number of ways to build a champion, there is no way to do it economically. You pay big time for elite talent. Either you pay in large contracts, blue chip prospects, or years of losing. Each strategy or balance of strategies has it's pluses and minuses. In addition, there are hidden opportunity costs: the price of doing nothing. Cheaper usually means riskier. Sometimes a new Maytag with a warranty is cheaper than buying a used washer which needs repair and replacement constantly. There can be a cost for going cheaper. Cost per fwar should also escalate. This is because of the shape of the normalcy curve. Ie average ball players are by definition much more common than exceptional. An fwar might cost $7.5 mil. But that's an average. That's actually brought down by all the average players. Elite talent should be worth even more because of scarcity. But top players don't make $50 mil a year, so they get more years.

That was the first 3 homer game for a Twin in decades. I remember we won the first game in a total blow out. Game 2 featured the 3HR from Justin, and I believe a near cycle from Jacque. But the most memorable part of the game for me was Jim Thome knocking Mike Redmond out cold with his vicious follow through in the first inning. Gardy had DH'd Mauer for the nightcap, and the Twins forfeited the DH for the rest of the game. Garza got a couple at bats and even laid down a sac bunt! 1 of 3 3HR games I've witnessed in person. 1, Dave Winfield in the Dome with the Angels. (also doubled off the plexiglass) 2. Justin. 3. Jose Bautista (went to left, center, and oppo).

That's fine. There's a danger in death penalty reactions. Dave chappelle discussed this issue in his latest Netflix special. He says that changing this culture will take men. And will involve a lot of imperfect heroes. We both want the same thing. We're disagreeing as to what might have a greater impact. No biggie. I hope you'll still cheer and post. You're certainly not forced to.

I never get the heartburn with years of contracts. Everyone knows the performance value on those deals is front loaded. I literally heard Mackie and Judd suggest that 6 years $140m was too much for Yu, then suggest we offer 5 years $150m so we're less committed. Literally paying more for fewer years. If we all know you're paying for 6 years to get 3 or 4 good years, then it really is a 3 or 4 year deal financed over 6 years. No gm expects to get a full contracts worth of top production. The market is what the market is. I look at long contracts as a finance agreement. If I buy a new car, I need to finance it. I understand that my payment is the same at the beginning and at the end. The value of the car goes down with mile 1. It is what it is. Shorter free agent contacts would just end up with "inflated" annual salaries. Longer contracts may actually allow smaller payroll teams to compete for a top player by adding more years. Inflation also tells us that what seems absurd one year seems run of the mill 10 years later. And of course, some players are productive all the way through their contracts. There are some benefits to longer term deals. It's all a matter of perspective.

Sam, thanks for your response. I do regret using the term "true fans". Allegations like this sometimes brings out buzzards and the pitch fork crew. People who didn't like Sano/men/pro athletes/etc have an easy target. I disagree on the privilege to play a sport and make a living. Why is a pro sport different than other professions? Should Sano be able to sell cars or insurance but not hit baseballs? Completely agree on the NFL. That is a difficult sport to reconcile. So is boxing, horse racing, hunting, and Al Franken. Ultimately, we all tend to do whatever best alleviates our own feelings of guilt. But that doesn't necessarily effect the issue. Check out cognitive dissonance theory for further explanation.

You don't know me or anything about me. You presume and project because you're blinded by raw emotion. Don't put words in my mouth. And stop twisting posts to fit your agenda. You're gross classification of myself and my views shows how difficult it is for people to simply put themselves in another's shoes. It's a conscious effort we all must make. You may think ridding the world or the sport of men like Sano will fix things. I happen to think that if we don't fix the culture, it won't matter because we'll just create more perpetrators. Understanding why Sano may have the attitude he has toward women and how it developed seems like a fairly important question for anyone trying to address the issue. Again, I never used "he's young as an excuse." I never used his upbringing as an excuse. I only suggested that we take measures to try to understand and break the cycle. I appreciate your passion, but not your insults or mischaractorizations.

You way misunderstood my post. I'm not saying that Sano's actions are excusable or even forgivable because of his age. I'm saying he is young enough to learn, to change, and to even teach. Who said you were obligated or you didn't have the right? I said Sano's TRUE fans should still be fans. People that care about him as a person as opposed to just a power hitter. If he's just a baseball player to you, boo away. The fact of the matter is that this kid has been playing professionally since he was 16. He was in baseball academies since well before that. He didn't have high school dances and college lecture halls to form healthy attitudes toward the opposite sex. I would guess that many or most interactions he's had with sex and women are from women who want something from him. If he perceives women as trying to use him, he's going to reciprocate those attitudes. Locker rooms, MLB culture, and apparently Twins coaching staffs reaffirm those attitudes. Finally, the comparison to terrorists is over-the-top. If Sano were your son, you'd want him to get help, learn from his mistake, and grow as a person. I'd hope you wouldn't cut him lose.

The two-year statute of limitations is for a civil claim, not criminal. It's actually provides more strength to her claim. This is clearly not a money grab. I still think it is unlikely that criminal charges will be filed because of the length of time that has passed and the apparent lack of evidence in the form of witnesses and physical evidence. True fans of Sano should STILL BE FANS OF SANO! You don't give up on people for making a mistake. Especially in their early 20's. Treat people like criminals, and you'll likely get criminal behavior. Those asking for zero tolerance are well intended, but there are significant drawbacks to that severe of an approach. The message shouldn't be "respect women or you'll be kicked out of the league." The message should be "respect women because they're worthy of your respect." The first example does not require a player to learn respect, and doesn't even require respect in scenarios with no chance of being caught. Empathy requires learning and perspective. I doubt Sano would be ok with someone treating his mother that way. With zero tolerance, you're basically telling this kid, that he's beyond fixing. That's not fair or humane. I really really doubt that's what Betsy would want. Sano needs to learn from this and be a champion for women from here on out. I have a client with multiple DWI's including CVO which severely injured another driver. He now uses his story and battle with addiction to educate teen drivers on the dangers of drunk driving and alcohol abuse. We're demanding that men change, but currently, we're not showing them how.

This isn't true at all. A pilot accused of terrorist ties, a daycare worker accused of child molestation, etc. Absolutes are dangerous. Which ironically, I think is your point.

I must confess, I rarely visit the blog section unless it generates a forum thread. I both applaud TD for asking for help and advice, and scratch my head at its apparent lack of self-awareness leading up to this point. As others have suggested, if you would like more featured blogs, then you must feature your blogs!! If the blogs were as popular as the Articles and Forum Threads, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Articles get front page status. Threads get constant dialogue and buzz. Blogs get... a spot in the dropdown box. Right now, your best threads, articles, and yes, blogs, are difficult to share on facebook, twitter, etc. That's not really acceptable if you're looking for greater exposure. My suggestions: 1) Determine whether a TD model based on free blog content is realistic. Don't ask us. Ask other sites you want to be like how they make their blog work. Is there an easier way to make things profitable? 2) The blogs need to be boosted. Getting some blogs to the front page and to the top of the thread list on the forum would be super-simple fixes. Reference the blogs in articles. Publish some blog postings as TD articles. 3) Boost the bloggers themselves. Nick, Seth, Parker, and John are on a first-name basis on this site. Spycake, Thrylos, and Chief, etc. are well respected posters on the threads. We need to get to know the bloggers. Understand their perspective and credentials. In short, we need to be told why we should read. Readers award attention on TD based on reputation and respect. Anyone can post on the forum. Anyone can start a blog. Not everyone can get article status. You've inadvertently created a second class of writer below the article authors and basically on equal plane as the forum posters. This provides little incentive to read or write. 4) Go read some of the other team forum sites out there, and realize how amazing the site content is and how special the community you've constructed is, and be proud of what you've accomplished. 5) Consider giving up the blog model entirely. Hire another writer to generate more content. Make this a pay site. I do not subscribe to ESPN insider, but I'd subscribe to this site... for the cost of a 2018 prospect handbook included as a free gift to you... 6) Don't ask us. Pay a consultant. There are people who know as much about building and promoting online publications as you know about Twins baseball and the media.

I would love to see analytical studies in bullpen usage. And rate of diminishing returns. Bounce back is a huge variable in determining a relievers success, yet we don't necessarily track that as a stat. Similarly, we don't really track cumulative fatigue. All bodies are not the same. All deliveries are not the same. Yet the rule remains, no more than 3 appearances in 3 days. 5 man rotations good pretty much everyone. Some arms can handle that or more. Some can't. Durability can make up for lack of electric stuff over a full season. Belisle strikes me as a guy who flourished in clean 1 inning stints. Struggled when over worked. Ditto with May and pressley. I think going forward, full usage of 40 man rosters for competitive teams will be really important. Relievers with options who can be recalled when fresh may be the next evolution of bullpen management.

I thought that was a cool story.

Actually the arrow is an homage to his home town in the Dominican,a fishing village nicknamed "la fletcha", the arrow. His father, who passed 6 days before his MLB debut was a fisherman who wore his hat that way to keep the sun out of his eyes. https://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/introducing-fernando-rodney-cap-arrow-numbers-120716

If this is all it takes to get Cole why wouldn't we have traded for him at the deadline last season? Sheesh. I don't think Cole gets value. I'm willing to be patient on Archer and wait for the price yo drop.

The pot is 4 months of games and 100 mil payroll. Many are ignoring the point of comparison. Any team at that point of the season is below 30% to win it all. Maybe less. Successful seasons don't always end in world series championships. I think the odds that prospect x or y contribute in a meaningful way to get us to a even the same position we were in at 5% with Kintzler or Garcia.

Ok, it's just an analogy, but your logic is slightly off. You can't just say the odds say to fold because the odds were 5%. You left out the size of the pot and the size of the bet. If there's a $100 pot and its $1 to stay in, by all means call with a 5% chance. 4.5 months of baseball and $100 million payroll, to throw away your 5% chance for a prospect that probably won't improve your chances in total over his career by as much as he damaged their chances (admittedly small) this year. I don't necessarily see it that way, but that's how it should be analyzed. I do not see either trade as a clear error or success.

His upside is R.A. Dicky. Learn a knuckle ball stat.

Update: According to Wikipedia, a study had rWAR as explaining 83% of the variance between expected wins and actual wins. (retroactively. 5 random teams from 5 years, SSS of large sample sizes). As a predictor it accounted for 35% of variance between expected to actual wins. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement

Are we talking bWAR or fWAR? Or is that the point? People forget that the variables we can measure are vastly outnumbered by the ones we can't. Try to figure out at your own job why you are more productive one day versus another. One week versus another. Then ask whether those things that effect your performance, a poor night's sleep, a sick child, an especially entertaining TD game thread could be measured if you were a baseball player. We hope that those other variables balance out over a season, but again the things we can measure offer only a glimpse. Statisticians use regression analysis to estimate how much variance within one statistic can be explained by a certain measured variable. Presumably they've run regressions on WAR factors in order to apply proper weight. Regardless, if we were able to get an actual measurement of what contributes to actual wins and put them in a pie chart, WAR factors would take up maybe 25% of the with things like luck, sequencing, umpires, and non-WAR factors dominating the pie. I'm no stats expert. I took one course in business stats and one in research stats. Hated them. Wish they would have had baseball stats back then.

To those who inquired as to my questioning whether he has a sense of entitlement, it's only based from the very unique position he's in. (In some sense, entitlement might be an issue for this whole generation of non-impoverished prospects). I've just never heard of a free agent or draft pick asking for recruitment letters. It's different. People questioned the Rays pick for allegedly telling teams not to pick him if they weren't on board with 2 way status. I get that Ohtani is the prettiest girl at the dance. It just seems that a 22 year old kid calling all the shots even in regard to his future boss doesn't fit the humble narrative. Of course is possible to be a humble diva. LeBron is one. Let's hope he's LeBron. Eventually he'll struggle. This is a big step, and it doesn't seem like he expects any struggle. When it happens and he's in a strange country with media and fan pressure and older players who he might take at bats from... how will he handle that? He is asking teams to evaluate how he'll fit. That shows self awareness. But if he doesn't see that his attitude and recruitment might well effect how he's received by his new teammates, that shows lack of awareness. It's refreshing to see a kid who loves the game more than the money. How will those values play in club house filled with very diverse financial backgrounds? Many players grew up poor. Money matters to them. Vets don't like being showed up. Many feel that they earned their big bucks and the right to enjoy that guilt free. He's just a different kind of kid. It could make him special. It could make him am easy target.