Steve Lein
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Everything posted by Steve Lein
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That tells me he's not been determined healthy yet. He was an invite last year. I would expect the invite thing to change if/when it is determined he's good to go.
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Buxton had fastest time to first in 2016
Steve Lein replied to gunnarthor's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Found it: link -
If he's healthy, Burdi.
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That statement had more to do with he is a southern guy, and will immediately click with a southern fan base with his personality. We all like him here, obviously, but that is nothing compared with how it would be for a team in the south, east of Texas specifically.
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I don't disagree. However, I would bet more money on Alvarez getting hurt before he ever reaches the majors, than I would on him reaching all of his potential. His pitching profile (and where he currently is at in his development) is the biggest type of injury risk there is in baseball, and that is the reason a lot of other lists don't currently have him near the top 25.
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So what are the deals we would be happy with from the Dodgers, at this point? Mine would be the following: 1. De Leon + Alvarez + lotto ticket 2. De Leon + Verdugo + Stewart 3. De Leon + Stewart + Calhoun + Sheffield 4. De Leon + Verdugo + Sheffield 5. De Leon + Buehler + Sheffield/Calhoun I don't think it gets done without 2 pitchers. Those pitchers determining what else, if anything.
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Well, Berardino followed up that post with this one: "Checked further on potential #Braves fit for Dozier and source w/direct knowledge insists match w/#mntwins would be a "long shot." " (Edit: not sure why the link didn't post)
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I'm saying I think he would be considered untouchable by the Braves.
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Looking at the Braves, I think a deal with them would have to start with Albies and Allard. I don't see how Newcomb would be considered, but he would trump anything the Dodgers have put out there by quite a bit.
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Brian Dozier would be a superstar in Altanta, as far as being a fan-favorite type goes.
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This has bothered me as well. Kershaw, Hill, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood, and Maeda all are on the 40-man (I understand the injuries there). Then you also have Urias, Stripling, Stewart, De Leon, and De Jong on the 40-man, and four of them made starts last year. They have more depth than any team in baseball, I would say (12 deep). Yeah, last year they needed some of it, but they are hardly lacking.
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I don't think it's his "injury history" per se, but more the fact he is already 24 years old and the most innings he's ever thrown in a season is 114. For being a starting pitcher, that is not even close to good.
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Lot of MLB execs have been saying the Dodgers are unreasonable with who they are willing or not willing to give up. Those same articles say it served them well last year, but that still doesn't change the prior fact.
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Per Fangraph's WAR he is the #15 most valuable position player since 2014. I would see him as maintaining that through his current contract, and likely a couple years past it.
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That was also me.
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There is a reason Dozier was the 10th most valuable position player in baseball last year (per BRef - or 13th if you prefer fangraphs). Going back to 2014, per fangraphs, he's been the 15th most valuable position player overall. I somehow doubt the Dodgers have more than 1 or 2 position players who would be more valuable than a guy giving 4-5 WAR in a season, let alone 6. Justin Turner is the closest Dodgers comp. from 2014 to 2016 as far as WAR goes (13.9 for Dozier vs. 12.8 for Turner). He's not a bad comparison for what Dozier could add to the Dodgers lineup as far as offensive output as well, but again, Dozier plays an up the middle position.
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I would definitely be on-board with the package suggested there: De Leon, Stewart, Calhoun, and Sheffield
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I wonder if you read my follow-up comment? But I'll reiterate: S.F. and S.D. do not suppress home runs to dead pull LF. That is where Dozier hits them. At&T Park was the toughest stadium in 2016 for HR's, except that dead pull LF is not why. Petco was slightly below average overall, but again, dead pull LF is not why. Arizona and Colorado were the 2nd and 3rd easiest HR stadiums, for obvious reasons. If Dozier halves his HR output at home in Dodger Stadium, he's still going to hit 25+ overall, and potentially still lead the Dodgers as a team. He's also going to club a lot of 2B's, as he's had 33+ for the last four years. Some HR's in other stadiums besides Dodger Stadium, will also turn into 2B's. Instead of getting 42 HR's and 35 2B's, I can see ~40 2B's and ~30 HR's from him if he were in blue. That's essentially Joc Pederson-like production...At 2B...As a right-handed hitter. That's likely the 2nd most valuable offensive player on the Dodgers behind Seager, and though that's a pretty high bar, it's not by as much as you think.
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Buxton had fastest time to first in 2016
Steve Lein replied to gunnarthor's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Reminds me that I was in attendance in St. Louis for Buxton's first MLB hit, a triple. My "stopwatch" (smart phone timer) clocked him at 10.something (.3 if I remember right, can't find that tweet) seconds to third. And that was with him pulling up as it was of the stand-up variety. -
S.F. and S.D. don't suppress HR's to dead pull LF. That's where Dozier hits 'em.
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Dozier hit 21 home runs at Target Field, and 21 on the road last year. Yeah, he's not going to hit 20 in Dodger Stadium, but how many right-handed hitters did for the Dodgers last year? The year before? The year before that? 2013? 2012? The answer is none. And you do realize what other stadiums are in the NL west division, right?
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Three young controllable pitchers. That's literally all they are right now. They are all risks. And then there is Dozier, a player already with multiple 5+ WAR seasons in the majors. I don't understand how anybody can think that Dozier is not a "great" player. And don't get me wrong, I would guess De Leon + Alvarez + Stewart is too much. I would be ecstatic for that return. But there absolutely is a combination of De Leon + Alvarez or De Leon + Stewart that could/should work.
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Stewart is lacking in pedigree. I haven't seen a scouting report yet that pegs him as more than a #4/#5 back-end starter. There is some belief that he could be more given he hasn't pitched all that much yet (did not pitch until he was a pro), but there's a lot of things beyond what he does now that would have to develop more for that to happen. From BA in June when he was called up (as an example of one such scouting report): "Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup." Think Kevin Slowey as far as what they did in the minors and what they may do in the majors.
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Nope I get all that. I think we agree on all counts, I would just personally prefer De Leon/Bellinger to De Leon/Alvarez. Alvarez is as risky of a pitching prospect as you can find. I think his risk of injury before he even reaches the majors is just as big as his huge potential. I would be happy with either package, though.
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I absolutely would prefer Bellinger as the 2nd piece... He's a legit corner bat, to replace the power bat you're getting rid of, and can move Eddie to 4th OF-er and/or take over for Mauer at 1B just like he would take over for A-Gon with the Dodgers down the line.
