WarPath1211

Rare Joe Ryan dud. Kent and Laweryson didn’t do anything to indicate they should move up in the bullpen pecking order. It was nice to see some better plate appearances from guys at the end even if they were against some low-leverage relievers. So far, either the bats have showed up, or the pitching has showed up, but not both so far. Even in the win, the team scored 4 runs on 4 hits, so the offense really didn't show up. I am still far more concerned about the bats than the pitching, as this was trending to be the 4th game in 5 tries with 5 or fewer total hits before the offense picked up against some weaker relievers.

I was at this game today! Drove down from Philly for the day to catch it in-person! Taj really labored at times, but got the strikeouts when he needed them. It was a little odd because he was effectively wild striking out the side in the 1st inning but leaving the bases loaded, and then Taj started to get hit pretty hard in the 2nd and survived giving up only one, and then he settled in without issue the rest of the way. Obviously would love to see the efficiency go up as the season goes on, and there were ups and downs today, but it was good enough. The much-maligned bullpen also earned their flowers today, particularly Orze, Topa, and Sands. They collectively allowed 1 baserunner in the last 3 innings, and took the crowd completely out of the game. The stands were pretty empty as Sands was finishing off the game, and the energy was gone. 16 strikeouts for the pitching staff today was great to see as a Twins fan, but honestly made viewing in-person a little odd at times because it seemed there were barely any balls in play and the rest of the diamond wasn’t needed!

With Tait, it's the power that stands out, not the contact ability/hit tool. Tait was putting up above average major league level exit velocities in A ball last year as an 18-year-old, but his hit tool and plate discipline will be highly scrutinized as he rises through the minors.

With Kreidler being optioned, that means either Gray or Arcia will be the backup infielder. I'm mildly surprised by this, as none of the 3 really hit this spring, so I thought they'd go Kreidler for defense by default. I'd give Gray the edge over Arcia simply because Gray is already on the 40-man roster, and somebody needs to be DFA'd to make room for Arcia. None of these 3 options inspired much confidence at the beginning of camp, and that hasn't changed now, so I'm a little ambivalent to who ultimately wins the job to be honest. It's an indictment on the infield depth of the organization that there are no more compelling options for a backup SS/3B (Clemens can play an acceptable 2B). Wagaman being optioned is not at all surprising. He always faced an uphill battle of making the opening day roster given the amount of 1B/DH/suspect corner outfielder types around. And with Josh Bell and Victor Caratini both being switch hitters who hit lefties okay, there wasn't much of a niche for Wagaman to fill.

I agree. For all his flaws on defense and his ground ball offensive profile limiting power, Mendez has shown he can hit well in the upper minors even at a young age. Guys like Winokur and Young haven’t even demonstrated they can hit all that much in the lower minors. Khadim Diaw is my pick to be a riser this year. Really excited to see if he can stay healthy, get reps, and improve behind the plate this season.

It's worth mentioning that the outfield jam extends beyond the majors into the minors as well. Let's say that the roster stays as it does now, which means the opening day outfield against a righty is likely to be Larnach-Buxton-Wallner. We'll say Martin and Outman start the season on the bench, with Martin spelling Wallner or Larnach against lefties. The means Roden gets sent down, and you then have a AAA outfield logjam with Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Roden all vying for at-bats in the outfield. That's without even mentioning Hendry Mendez, who tore up AA last year and deserves a promotion, or Kyler Fedko, who hit well in the minors last year and could conceivably be a useful right-handed platoon outfielder. These are all guys you ideally want getting everyday at-bats at AAA this year. I don't really see how this gets resolved without a trade unless there are multiple injuries.

This is really how I see this going as well. Alan Roden has an option year left, James Outman is out of options. I really think Outman would have to stink it up really, really bad this spring for the front office to risk losing him for nothing. Outman is also a true CF, while Roden and Martin are more guys who can play there in a pinch, but probably shouldn't be regularly out there. My ideal scenario would be trading Larnach to clear up outfield playing time. This lets Roden/potentially Rodriguez compete for regular OF at-bats, and leaves Outman in a bench role where he can hopefully still prove himself to be a competent backup for all 3 spots. But I've heard no such Larnach trade rumors other than wishful thinking.

I'm pretty sure they were aggressive because he needed to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. If he's on the 40-man, he's ostensibly just a step from the big leagues and is a callup candidate. I think the wisdom was to challenge him immediately and see what he had. Even though Rojas hasn't pitched a ton in the minors due to injury, and particularly little in the upper minors, his "prospect clock" is already pretty advanced because he signed with the Blue Jays all the way back in 2020. This is also probably why Toronto was willing to part with him, despite his talent, for a reliever, Rojas had to be on the 40-man or would almost certainly be lost in the Rule 5 draft.

Ideally you platoon them to get the best of both worlds, with Martin also serving as a pinch runner/hitter/defensive replacement/occasional starter elsewhere when a righty starts. Caratini is a sure thing. Martin is probably the next closest to a sure thing to me - decent defender and athlete, hits righty, played well down the stretch last year. I would have said Clemens was a sure thing if Rocco was still the manager because the last coaching staff really seemed to like him, but I don't think that's the case with the regime change. I'd still rank him 3rd in probability to make the bench, but he is in a weird spot competing with many different others, both guaranteed and bubble guys (Larnach, Bell, Wallner, Roden, Outman, Wagaman), for a spot and for playing time. Realistically, one of either Kreidler or Gray has to make it in order to have a shortstop-capable backup infielder, I don't think there's much chance both make it. It really comes down to whether you prioritize defense (Kreidler) or offense (Gray). I guess Arcia and Urshela are in the mix here too, but they are long shots to me. Outman and Roden are directly competing with one another and almost certainly only one makes the team barring a Larnach trade or another move. There's a conceivable world where neither make it if the team feels they can roll with Martin/Clemens/possibly Kreidler to back up the outfield. That leaves Wagaman, who is in a weird spot. He'd have a better chance if Martin wasn't a near lock to be a bench righty to me, or if Bell or Caratini were lefties instead of switch hitters. But he's hard to carry as a short-side platoon bat with limited defensive and baserunning utility.

Daulton Varsho is the only other I can think of in recent memory in the MLB with this defensive profile, and he eventually became a great MLB outfielder. I don't know where Diaw eventually ends up, but the athleticism is impressive. On Hendry Mendez, I don't believe this writeup mentions it, but he actually has decent raw power and hits the ball hard; the issue is moreso that he hits the ball on the ground a ton, so that has depressed the power output greatly. He has consistently run groundball rates of around 60% in the minors, which would put him at basically the top of the league in the majors. If he can ever learn to lift the ball a bit more without sacrificing much of his great contact ability, he could be a really, really good hitter, but it's indeed a big if. Last year was encouraging from a power standpoint for Mendez.

Honestly, the Josh Bell signing doesn't make much sense with the Caratini signing in the fold. Josh Bell is aging and fading, he can still hit a little but is not a good defender, and he isn't part of the future. I would prefer no Bell and to just go with a Caratini/Clemens/Wagaman timeshare at 1B with some DH sprinkled in for each of them. This allows another one of the younger guys with more upside than Bell to also make the team while probably still getting as good or better performance at 1B,