markominne

OK. The off-season is now officially too long....

Are we feeling a little defensive these days? I don’t believe I said - or implied - that everyone on the board held any particular opinion, my first point was about the net improvement in the Twins lineup represented by the Cruz signing, and just merely an observation about the trend (which I find humorous) for some people to negatively react against nearly any move made by this, or the prior, FO. There were 4 points about the Twins in that post, the substance of all of which you ignored to nitpick about an opinion that you disagreed with.

1) This board cracks me up! All year we’ve had people criticizing management for building for the future with young guys; they sign Cruz and now they’re overspending on a proven veteran! There is no question that this strengthens the lineup; a lineup that inarguably under-achieved last year. 2) The Tyler Austin/CJ Cron decision doesn’t bother me at all - with the depth in the minor leagues, I could see either one being a one-year (or partial year) hole-filler. 3) I would argue that starting pitching is not a priority: could it be improved? Yes, but what team’s rotation couldn’t? I’d say Falvine should be aware for opportunities, but shouldn’t go overboard. 4) Finally, if I were in charge of spending the Pohlad’s money, I’d go after David Robertson for the bullpen, and ping the Marlins on JT Realmuto now that the catching market seems to be settling down.

I realize that our “group think” on this has gravitated to the whole “The Twins are just being cheap”, and “They can’t compete without signing Darvish/Cobb/Lynn/whomever”. However, I’m thinking that Falvey & co. have taken a broader, holistic view of the pitching staff, that is there is one pitching staff, not two (starters and relievers). While the addition of Odorizzi and Sanchez to the potential starting staff rotation may not excite us, when combined with returning starters (Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia), guys returning from injuries (May, Hughes), and prospects (Gonsalves, Romero, others), I cannot think of a time when there were as many legitimate candidates. Not top-5 starters in MLB, granted, but just as important, when combined with a bullpen bolstered by the addition of Rodney, Duke and Reed, combined with Hildenberger, Rogers and several high-potential prospects (Busenitz, Chargois, Curtiss, etc), along with some of the people who don’t make the rotation, appear to me to hold the promise of a MUCH improved pitching staff. Just a contrarian view, I guess.

Seriously?!? 2 extra catchers, 3 prospects and a bunch of not-even-suspects. Why clutter up camp with some of these guys instead of pushing real prospects up to see what they can do?!?

For those of us out of range of the Twins broadcasts, take a look at the MLB AtBat app for your smart phone - for $21 for the season, you can access the audio for any game, and you get to choose between the home and visitor broadcast, plus often the Espanol version!

Good discussion. Heezy1323, though, may be establishing a disturbing precedent here, offering up professional experience instead of amateur speculation! ;-)

I'm pretty sure that that wasn't Nishioka's intent, either....

Trading Ervin makes no sense if the Twins think they will contend next year (they should). Trading Suzuki is problematic; after watching Centeno play hacky-sack with pitches in the dirt the last few days, and with the dearth of catching in the minors, unless Mitch Garver can make the jump they really need Suzuki, not only this year, but perhaps next year, as well. Moving Plouffe has to happen, but in August will likely depend upon a third baseman on a contending team going down; he's too inconsistent to be valuable just as an extra bat. Kintzler, Milone, Boshers, Park and Grossman should all be available should any other team come calling. All are replaceable with people on the roster or in the system, imho.

I'd have to say you run the risk of widespread ridicule for proposing a real, practical step towards resolving this mess. Unlike many here, I'm not inclined to write off every member of the staff and every player on the team. However, this is the season the Twins have been building towards, and by the beginning of May they have played themselves out of any hope of contending this year. With the draft a month away, they cannot just fire everyone, but clearly the direction of the franchise over the past 6 to 8 years has resulted in a team without clutch hitting (and don't tell me that it doesn't really exist!), heavy in strikeouts (except for the pitching staff), no catching, and poor fielding. The pitchers can't hold on runners, the catchers can't throw them out, and on the other side of the ball, the Twins have no apparent clue as to how to run the bases. Shuffling in and out over-the-hill or never-were veterans to attempt a short term fix makes no sense - the idea of bringing in a president of baseball operations over the team makes perfect sense.

Some of us on this board are interesting. We're more than happy to bash Joe Mauer for what are almost indisputably the results of a traumatic brain injury, but we want to give Miguel Sano a pass for not making apparent effort to lose weight, or to put in needed work in learning to play the outfield. Yes, he was successful last season, but it's still a small sample size (case in point: Danny Santana 2014 vs 2015). The fact is, he's not the second coming of Killebrew or any other hall of famer until he's performed for years, and adding 10 lbs per year at the age of 22 is not indicative of the work effort needed to succeed in the long term; neither does it show respect for how rare his talent is, and how much work is required to develop and maintain that talent in order to succeed at the major league level. Let's give Reusse his props here: he spends a lot of time in Ft. Myers at the ball park, and it appears he spoke to a number of the right people in connection with this article. Just because his conclusions aren't what any of us would like to hear doesn't make them wrong.

I don't recall anything as extreme as the Buxton situation. The Eddie Bane thing was more a product of the Twins PA department, and the novelty of a college pitcher jumping directly into the major leagues. With his 85-mph fastball I don't think most for interested observers were seriously excited. Hype for McCarty was just people looking for any hope after the Twins mid-year collapse in 1992, and while his numbers at class-A Visalia were ridiculous, they were only based on 15 games and 66 AB. Kent Hrbek generated some interest because of his local ties, and great numbers at class-A Visalia, but he was a 17th round (?) draft pick with only 2 year's experience, and none above high-A. I recall that there was also a lot of interest in Tim Laudner when he came up - also a local guy, and his (if memory serves) 42-HR year at Orlando. Morneau hype was tempered by Dougie Baseball's popularity. So, I think the Buxton situation is pretty unique in Twins history, but the history of Eddie Bane and David McCarty in particular should serve as cautionary tales of inflated expectations. It's a big jump, and the danger of course is that Buxton will adopt the expectations of immediate success, and never live up to them. He seems to be a level-headed kid, so maybe he'll be able to handle it.

Now that the season-opening roster has been set, and no one on the internet seems satisfied, let's play GM: What do you think the Twins roster should look like on July 17 when they open the last half of the season in Oakland? Include your rationale, and let's be reasonable (letting Joe Mauer go on waivers probably isn't going to happen, OK?). For a starting point, here's the season-opening roster: Starters Phil Hughes Ervin Santana Ricky Nolasco Kyle Gibson Tommy Milone Relievers Glen Perkins Casey Fien Brian Duensing Mike Pelfrey Blaine Boyer Tim Stauffer J.R, Graham Infielders Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Danny Santana Trevor Plouffe Kurt Suzuki Eduardo Escobar Eduardo Nunez Chris Herrmann Kennys Vargas Outfielders Oswaldo Arcia Jordan Schafer Torii Hunter Shane Robinson And here's my take on what July 17 should look like, with changes highlighted: Starters Phil Hughes Ervin Santana Trevor May - Ricky Nolasco is owed money, but somebody will need a starter... I hope Kyle Gibson J.O. Berrios - Tommy Milone is as good as he's going to be, and Berrios may already be better Relievers Glen Perkins Casey Fien Any one of 3/4 minor league lefties vs Brian Duensing - Duensing: good guy, weak reliever Michael Tonkin vs Mike Pelfrey - same argument as Berrios versus Milone Alex Meyer - Blaine Boyer has no history of success; Meyer needs to build some success in bullpen where he can rely on 2 strong pitches, and work from there. Nick Burdi - Tim Stauffer is a placeholder, and a weak one. Burdi is young but upside is terrific Jake Reed - J.R. Graham - This one's a flyer - no financial loss in letting Graham go back to the Braves, and I am hoping that Reed will be able to make the (admittedly huge) jump. Infielders Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Danny Santana Miguel Sano vs Trevor Plouffe - maybe the longest shot here, but Plouffe could provide trade value, IF Sano is ready Kurt Suzuki Eduardo Escobar Levi Michael vs Eduardo Nunez - OK, a surprise here: Better defense, flexibility & strong OBP Josmil Pinto vs Chris Herrmann - Hoping this would have happened already if Pinto hadn't been hurt Kennys Vargas Outfielders Oswaldo Arcia Byron Buxton vs Jordan Schafer - Does this need any explanation? Eddie Rosario - Torii Hunter should have value to a playoff team; if not, time to hang 'em up Adam Brett Walker vs Shane Robinson - OK, this is a longer shot that Sano, but I like the possibilities, and putting some pressure on Arcia OK, that's turning over better than half the roster. What say you?

How do you think the Twins should select their new manager? How do you think they will do it? In most professions, potential new hires are selected based upon a number of evaluation criteria, in addition to the neulous "personality fit". Giving this a little thought, based upon my observations over the past 13 years (the Gardenhire era), and before (OK, I'm old), I've come up with this list: Must Haves: 1. Respected as a leader 2. Commitment to statistical approaches 3, Track record of consistent, aggressive game management 3. Track record working well with Spanish-speaking players 4. Track record developing young players Important: 1. Spanish-speaking 2. Willing to accept input on coaching staff members 3. Track record of dealing positively with media 4. Demonstrated aversion to bunting (OK, that's a joke - kind of) 5. No track record of unhealthy affection for light-hitting utility infielders (Also a joke, but only kind of...) I'm sure there are other priorities for the hire, but what are your thoughts on criteria? Prioritization? How do you think the publicly-identified candidates measure up on this - or your - list? Perhaps more importantly for an organization that has not gone to the outside to hire a manager in the last 28 years, how do you think the decision will actually be made?

I would suggest that MLB's [selig's] actions on the Rodriguez case undermine the commissioner's office, the Joint Drug Agreement, and the commissioner's powers under the "best interests of the game" provisions. Rodriquez has not tested positive under any of the agreed-upon JDA procedures, so he's not liable for suspension under the JDA. Apparently Selig and others felt that there was sufficient evidence from other sources to indicate that Rodriguez had in fact used PEDs in violation of the agreement. OK, I get that. However, then imposing a penalty in excess of those spelled out for a positive first or second offense under the JDA makes this look exactly like what Rodriquez has publicly complained about: a personal vendetta. Further, when looked at closely, the only party who benefits from the suspension decision is the New York Yankees, who dodge one full year of their $24 million/year obligation to Rodriguez. As a result, the commissioner's office looks like a toadie to the Yankees, both the arbitration process and the "good of the game" provision become tools to use for whatever private interest the commissioner decides he wishes to serve, and the JDA becomes an apparent joke, it being tacitly admitted that it can't catch abusers, and imposed only upon those who won't stand up to the commissioner. A year and a half ago it appeared that MLB had gotten its act together on PED enforcement. Now, it appears that there is no effective due process in place, and the agreement is not worth the paper it's written on. And all of this in the pursuit of Alex Rodriquez who appears to be nearly certainly guilty of PED abuse, and who would probably have accepted a 100-game, second-time penalty had the commissioner's office not overreached themselves.

"The list of players who have given up switch-hitting this deep into their careers is rather short." Not the same level of talent as Hicks, but I believe the Twins tried this back in the 90's with Rich Becker, with less-than-stellar results. With that said, hard to imagine that he couldn't equal or improve upon a .447 OPS batting right-handed exclusively, and it's equally difficult to believe that he will improve - and he would have to improve substantially - from the left side of the plate. Remember the definition of insanity?.... Perhaps he should head for winter league ball and try it there. It's hard to be concerned at this point about him messing with his left-handed swing...

A recent development, one he's used several times this year: "His first major league debut..."

Thanks, John. Great reminder. My hope is that this generation, far from being ruined by the Internet and technology, will produce an unprecedented number of writers. Blogs allow writers to gain exposure - and most importantly - feedback from a wide range of people. Sure, there are the trolls out there who will trash everything, but those few - like you, Seth, Parker, Nick, Aaron and others - who take the time to reinforce good writing make a huge difference, and improve the "blogosphere" for all of us readers!

They won't win - or compete for - the division title, but may not be nearly as bad as last two years. (I saw someone on Twitter ask Dave St. Peter if he thought they'd be over or under 20 wins - that's snark on a major level.) There is some upcoming depth in starting pitching (Gibson, Harden, Deduno, Walters, and maybe even May and Berrios) that, while not overwhelming, promises more than last year, when they were bringing up many of the same folks with zero major league experience. Despite what someone said above, spring training appears to indicate that middle infield will be massively improved. If they regular rotate Mastro into LF and RF (DHing Willingham more), then the OF combo of Willingham - Hicks - Parmalee should be on the field less, and thus less of a concern. Offense has been consistent this spring, largely driven by the guys on the 25-man. Last year, the inconsistency of the offense was maddening - if they can increase output from their regulars, and with a stronger bench, the offense could make the pitching less crucial than last year. The bullpen, unlike last year, looks like a crapshoot to me, outside of Perkins and Burton. Overall, I'm hoping for somewhere between 75 and 80 wins - optimistic, but not without reason.

Thanks, John. Interesting article, with real implications for Twins and others. While using statistical correlation can yield misleading (and sometimes hilarious) positive correlations, an extremely low coefficient (and .07 is VERY low) is pretty much unassailable, if the population is large enough. Here the population is small, but the subjective evidence (the 2012 Giants and Yankees, the 2011 Cardinals, the 2001 Mariners ... and the '87 Twins, to name a few that come quickly to mind) certainly would reinforce the idea that just getting to the playoffs is far more important than how a team gets there, and that running away from the field provides no advantage. I'd always suspected that running away from the pack in winning a division was a disadvantage relative to the team's chances of success in the postseason. This correlation indicates that that is a falacy, as well. It's not an advantage, or a disadvantage; it's statistically irrelevant. I'm guessing the article won't be popular with the "Tear down the Twins and start over" crowd, but those kinds of arguments are what the postseason is for, right?

For those of us pushing for moving prospects into the major leagues faster, I will point out that the 1982 Twins lost 102 games. Plus, when they are losing with these guys, I already can hear the complaining about the "cheap Pohlads" for playing minimum-salary player who should be in the minor leagues. One other thought: While the '82 team was the foundation of tehe '87 world champions, let's not glamorize the 1987 Twins, or lose sight of the fact that they were a severely flawed team with only 2 effective starting pitchers. They caught lightening in a bottle by being in the right division (they won the division with 85 wins), and getting hot at the right time. They took a chance with that core group, and got lucky in '87. I agree that players who are ready can and should move through the minors quickly. But that is clearly not the case with Sano; 90 errors in the 3 years would make him a 20-year-old DH who struggles to hit breaking pitches.Similarly, someone suggested putting Joe Benson on the 25-man in 2013 "to see what he can do": In 2012 he was demoted early for terrible production, then was injured for most of the remainder of the season. If you recall, he and Parmalee were recalled in 2011, and while Parmalee excelled, Benson looked like a guy snatched out of AA-ball without the tools to play in the major leagues. Personally, I'll side with Ryan and see if he can pull together a competitive club in 2013 by adding pitching, and give most of these guys at least another year in the minors. Sano is NOT Bryce Harper, and rushing him, Rosaria, Arcia, Benson, et al, onto the major leagues is going to hurt the team in the near term, with no evidence it would help them longer-term. Who cares how many games the Twins lost in 1982. That is the point. When you are losing, rebuild. After two 95+ loss seasons what players have the Twins developed for the long run? Get the prospects, like Joe Benson, up to the major leagues and see what they can do. From the 1982 team there were several guys who made it and a few that did not, like Dave Engle, Lenny Faedo, and Brad Havens. Rebuilding is a two step process: develop the guys who are good and weed out and replace the guys who are not. By moving early on Lenny Faedo they got Greg Gagne up to replace him. If you move conservatively you will not get that information. My point is simply that the 1982 rebuild job you're glorifying resulted in a world series championship 5 years later, by a team that was at least as lucky as good. Say what you will, but rushing that great crop of rookies from 1982 that you hold up as an example resulted in exactly 2 winning (and 1 .500) season in 9 years (1982-1990), by the end of which the team had been substantially rebuilt. I don't think you or most of us are going to continue attending games at Target Field for 5 years of losing baseball in the hopes that at the end of that period the Twins might cobble together an 85-win season that might or might not be enough to get them into even the expanded playoffs. In the meantime, many of us will be howling about how the "cheap" Pohlads are playing minor leaguers instead of retaining and buying established major leaguers. Like it or not, the business of baseball requires a competitive team on the field for a team to be viable.

For those of us pushing for moving prospects into the major leagues faster, I will point out that the 1982 Twins lost 102 games. Plus, when they are losing with these guys, I already can hear the complaining about the "cheap Pohlads" for playing minimum-salary player who should be in the minor leagues. One other thought: While the '82 team was the foundation of tehe '87 world champions, let's not glamorize the 1987 Twins, or lose sight of the fact that they were a severely flawed team with only 2 effective starting pitchers. They caught lightening in a bottle by being in the right division (they won the division with 85 wins), and getting hot at the right time. They took a chance with that core group, and got lucky in '87. I agree that players who are ready can and should move through the minors quickly. But that is clearly not the case with Sano; 90 errors in the 3 years would make him a 20-year-old DH who struggles to hit breaking pitches.Similarly, someone suggested putting Joe Benson on the 25-man in 2013 "to see what he can do": In 2012 he was demoted early for terrible production, then was injured for most of the remainder of the season. If you recall, he and Parmalee were recalled in 2011, and while Parmalee excelled, Benson looked like a guy snatched out of AA-ball without the tools to play in the major leagues. Personally, I'll side with Ryan and see if he can pull together a competitive club in 2013 by adding pitching, and give most of these guys at least another year in the minors. Sano is NOT Bryce Harper, and rushing him, Rosaria, Arcia, Benson, et al, onto the major leagues is going to hurt the team in the near term, with no evidence it would help them longer-term.

Just for perspective - if the Twins "limit" Gibson to 175 innings, that would be 2 more innings than the Twins 2012 innings leader, Scott Diamond. For more perspective: Second place in IP goes to Brian Duensing, with 109, Liriano was the only other pitcher to hit 100 innings.

Good question, and one that hasn't really received as much discussion as it should. Tony had a great bat, good speed, power, excellent throwing arm. 3 batting titles (of all eligible players, only Bill Madlock (4) has as many titles and is not in HOF), 2 second place finishes in MVP voting (and 5 top-10 finishes), made the all-star team in each of his first 8 full seasons, during which he never finished lower than 8th in batting average. While looking at this, I found one item very telling: He spent his entire career playing for the Twins, and usually batting 3rd ahead of Harmon Killebrew. In his first 12 years (8 before destroying his knees), 9 times he placed in the top 10 in the league in intentional base on balls. (Interestingly, 3 of those occurred after his career-diminishing 1972 knee injury.) If we judge a player by the standards of the era in which he played, this is a strong indication that, clearly, American League pitchers feared and respected him for a very long time. Is Tony-O a hall of famer? In my mind he always has been, but I can see differences of opinion on the matter. Just don't let anyone try to convince you that he wasn't close.

Hopefully Gardy has realized that with Morneau being primarily the DH, that Doumit is principally a position player - meaning, he doesn't risk losing his DH by moving Doumit behind the plate during a game. A third catcher - particularly if he can't hit - is a luxury the Twins cannot afford. Besides, I've never thought that losing the DH late in the game is that big a deal - so what if you play NL ball for a couple innings?!