Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

launchingthrees

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    240

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by launchingthrees

  1. launchingthrees
    Didn't you just post quite a few really good players from that segment of the draft? Do you even know what you're arguing at this point? You seem a bit lost.
  2. launchingthrees
    There's no way to frame a college pitcher that can't miss bats as having upside. I have no issue with the scouting. They reached last year for J.O. who was lower than where we took him on every scouts board. I thought that represented a change in their understanding of how a draft should be conducted. I guess not.
  3. launchingthrees
    So you "ding ding ding" a post saying this pick is full of players that never contributed then go on to name a ton of really good players to come from that spot. ok? It's hard to tell what you're arguing at this point. I'm not gonna touch the lol analysis of naming specific players to analyze the value of a pick. If i remember correctly the pick is worth less than 4war lifetime. Taking a a safe player in the context of the 43rd pick is a laughable strategy. The only time to even consider taking a safe pick is when there is actually expected value to sacrifice by going risky.
  4. launchingthrees
    The post you're responding to speaks to the opposite of your point. There is no such thing as a safe pick at 43. No 10war players are available. The best strategy is to swing for the fences when it costs you nothing.
  5. launchingthrees
    The twins are never short of bottom of the rotation pitchers. This pick makes no sense to me.
  6. launchingthrees
    I would love to see what Butera would fetch on the trade market. I think they could probably fill the pop machine, and maybe if they find a sucker thow in pizza party for the locker room.
  7. launchingthrees
    Sano-Power: 5/7 This guy is paid to write these?
  8. launchingthrees
    Maybe start a thread and plug all your articles in it? Seem over the top to start a new thread every time you write an article for a non-twinsdaily site.
  9. launchingthrees
    Nah man the Twins have some secret player evaluation tools and no one else in the world understands them. TRUST THEM. It has NOTHING to do with his father. War, ops, woba, WRC+ can't show a man's heart.
  10. launchingthrees
    Butera is historically awful, and has an upside of replacement level player. Using the word impact in the same sentence as Drew Butera is a travesty. I'd prefer the Twins are mocked for keeping Butera on the 40 man in every single post on every single forum.
  11. launchingthrees
    This isn't exactly what I would do but clearly one of many strategies vastly superior to how the team is run now. I think we can disagree on the best ways to rebuild but I would be excited if the Twins had executed what you outlined here.
  12. launchingthrees
  13. launchingthrees
    "Trying to resist doing an analysis here" Good impulse.
  14. launchingthrees
    Yeah because a 23 year old player without a plate appearance at AAA is the same as a 25 year old player with quite a bit of AAA experience.
  15. launchingthrees
    Both of these are likely to happen regardless of this decision.
  16. launchingthrees
    Science!
  17. launchingthrees
    You also think "ERA, won-loss record and even quality starts tell you a lot more than xFIP" So yeah
  18. launchingthrees
    You should work for the twin's front office. Use 2 counter examples to a 2500 player study. Brilliant.
  19. launchingthrees
    Typical casualfan.jpg analysis.
  20. launchingthrees
    Agreed, but the twins are long past caring about their credibility They're spending about 1/3 of their revenue on payroll this year. Expecting ownership to be competitive with other major league teams in spending/revenue is a pipe-dream. "And the teams that repeatedly draft in the top 5 picks are generally the same ones, year after year, only Tampa Bay and Washington have been able to escape from your "optimal strategy", and they still look years away from legitimately being considered World Series contenders" It's not easy to be competitive for an extended period of time with a low payroll. That being said, in 3 years the Twins, Astros, and Nationals will be at the top of their divisions due to hoarding elite prospects. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9273233/hoarding-prospects-being-horrible-houston-astros
  21. launchingthrees
    Reread the exchange. Yes, the career WAR value of a given pick has essentially been solved. You won't see more work on it because the study was exhaustive and the confidence interval was high. Also it's not a fangraphs original. The Baseball Analysts: Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement
  22. launchingthrees
    Yeah you're right. edited. And an example?
  23. launchingthrees
    I'm simply asking you to give an example with a payroll comparable to the twins. If there are other ways there should be an example.
  24. launchingthrees
    So you can't name a single team? eh...St Louis has a 116m payroll this year and has kept an above average payroll for the last decade.
  25. launchingthrees
    "just that the argument that you need to be terrible to acquire good young talent is false" Of course you don't "need" to be terrible to get some young talent. Could a team technically draft in the bottom half of the first round, have a 74m dollar payroll, and field a competitive team? Possibly, but it's unlikely based on quantifiable expected value. If they refuse to sign costly free-agents, don't draft in the top 5 then they will be likely be terrible forever. Washington and Tampa Bay have done it the right way. Can you name any teams over the last 10 years with below average payrolls that have won consistently without rebuilding through the top of the draft?
×
×
  • Create New...