HeresWaldo
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Everything posted by HeresWaldo
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Brooks Lee is not a shortstop, Culpepper is probably not a shortstop, and the thing I think is overlooked in this piece is that Marek Houston is probably not a major league shortstop any time soon. Houston could become a quality major leaguer given time, but right now he just doesn't have a major league bat, even by the standards of glove-first guys. Last year (admittedly tiny sample at both levels) he hit .370/.424/.444 at the A level, which sounds awesome except he did it with a .488 BABIP and a .074 ISO which says he got unbelievably lucky while hitting for no power. When they sent him to A+ he hit .152/.220/.239 while still displaying zero power. Right now the question for him isn't if he could clear the Mendoza Line in the majors, it's if he can clear that mark at AA before the end of the year. To be clear, this doesn't mean we should give up on him, but he needs a lot more time to develop if he's going to be a replacement level or better player in the majors. Fangraphs puts his ETA in 2028 which seems about right. Internal help is not coming, the cavalry is not on the way, and if this team is even remotely serious about competing in '26 or '27 they are going to need to make a meaningful trade (the kind that costs a heck of a lot more than Trevor Larnach) to fill this hole.
- 85 replies
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- 12
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- marek houston
- kaelen culpepper
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For what it's worth I agree with this assessment of the pitching plan because the Twins absolutely love SP depth, so no shade intended regarding this article. But if they field this projected bullpen with Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, and Connor Prielipp all in the minors and the then this bullpen performs poorly, that should be treated as a fireable offense. If they are at all serious about competing this year they can't field a low stuff bullpen with three of their most interesting arms just sitting at AAA waiting for an opportunity. I get that teams need SP depth and there's no such thing as too much SP depth, but if they field this projected bullpen it's not going to matter how deep the rotation is because the bullpen will knock them out of the race before June. The worse a defense is, the more important it is for the pitching staff to generate whiffs and minimize the number of balls in play. If you're going to field an infield defense of Jeffers, Bell, Keashall, Lee, Lewis you can't leave all your good high stuff arms in the minors.
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They just lost 92 games and are worse than they were at the start of last season. Regression might save them from a second consecutive 90 loss season, but they're currently not good, and it's crazy that ownership would claim otherwise. And if they trade away what's left of their good talent at the deadline again they might very well lose 90+ again.
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The Peralta deal felt more or less fair: good prospects in exchange for one year of a good pitcher, and a Qualifying Offer pick on the back end for the Mets to recoup some prospect value. The Brewers traded from a position of strength and got more than the QO value in return, and the Mets made a win now move because they have enough money that they don't need their prospects to power their team. Ryan and Lopez have multiple years of team control though so they're more like Gore, and unless Washington knows something about the guys they got back that no one else does (which is certainly possible) that was a terrible trade. They traded away a very good player with multiple years of team control for a large collection of significantly less good players. My concern with trading Ryan or Lopez is I could 100% see Falvey making this same mistake and trading 1 Ace for 5 Trevor Larnach/Austin Martin/middle reliever types because gaining roster flexibility and team control while saving money technically has measurable secondary value. The problem with these model-driven trades is that Aces are harder to find than large collections of mediocre major leaguers.
- 71 replies
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- joe ryan
- byron buxton
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It's an interesting idea. I suspect the Mets would want something significantly more painful in return than Ober or SWR. He'd fix a lot of lineup problems though.
