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Throughout the 2024 season, the Twins have received contributions from several young players, the most unlikely of whom has been Zebby Matthews. The Twins selected the 24-year-old righthander out of Western Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. During his first full season in the minor leagues, Zebby threw 105.1 innings, striking out 112, walking 15, and finishing the season with a 3.84 ERA. The Twins’ front office then tweaked his mechanics, as they have done to other tall, righthanded mid-round draft picks like Baily Ober, Louie Varland, David Festa, and Joe Ryan. 
Zebby Matthews started the 2024 season with the Twins’ high-A affiliate. He pitched in just four games for the Kernels, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA while striking out 28 batters without walking anyone across 22.2 innings. The Twins quickly moved Zebby to AA, where he continued to dominate. Through 55.1 innings, he had a 1.95 ERA with a 63:6 K: BB ratio. Then, after his promotion to AAA, he struggled for the first time in his professional career.  He had a 5.68 ERA (over 19 innings), but he struck out 23 batters while walking only one. Zebby’s stats across all levels of the 2024 season are unbelievable:  He’s thrown 97 innings, striking out 114 batters and walking only 7. Seven!  His incredible command of the strike zone, mixed with improved velocity and spin rates, led to a 2.60 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP. 
Despite the rough patches at AAA, injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddock forced the Twins to call Zebby to the big leagues. He answered that call, as he looked much more experienced than a player with just two minor-league seasons. He took the mound in a pivotal game against the Royals and outdueled Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo while the offense took care of the rest. Matthews threw five innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits, striking out five, and, not surprisingly, walking no one. Of his 77 pitches, he threw 38 fastballs (averaging 95 mph), 16 sliders, 15 cutters, four curveballs, and four change-ups. He threw 49 strikes with a whiff rate of 18% and a chase rate of 26%. His one mistake of the night came on a cutter, which MJ Melendez sent over the wall in right-center. 
Zebby Matthews pitched well. The Twins could not have asked for more from an inexperienced rookie who started the year in high-A. He took the mound during a playoff race against an inner-division rival, and he overshadowed one of this season’s best pitchers. This should give the Twins some optimism - his performance will likely earn him an extended look in the big leagues during the rest of the season. Zebby is a big part of the Twins’ future, but a solid stretch to end the season could earn him a spot on a potential playoff roster, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. 




 

Throughout the 2024 season, the Twins have received contributions from several young players, the most unlikely of whom has been Zebby Matthews. The Twins selected the 24-year-old righthander out of Western Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. During his first full season in the minor leagues, Zebby threw 105.1 innings, striking out 112, walking 15, and finishing the season with a 3.84 ERA. The Twins’ front office then tweaked his mechanics, as they have done to other tall, righthanded mid-round draft picks like Baily Ober, Louie Varland, David Festa, and Joe Ryan. 
Zebby Matthews started the 2024 season with the Twins’ high-A affiliate. He pitched in just four games for the Kernels, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA while striking out 28 batters without walking anyone across 22.2 innings. The Twins quickly moved Zebby to AA, where he continued to dominate. Through 55.1 innings, he had a 1.95 ERA with a 63:6 K: BB ratio. Then, after his promotion to AAA, he struggled for the first time in his professional career.  He had a 5.68 ERA (over 19 innings), but he struck out 23 batters while walking only one. Zebby’s stats across all levels of the 2024 season are unbelievable:  He’s thrown 97 innings, striking out 114 batters and walking only 7. Seven!  His incredible command of the strike zone, mixed with improved velocity and spin rates, led to a 2.60 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP. 
Despite the rough patches at AAA, injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddock forced the Twins to call Zebby to the big leagues. He answered that call, as he looked much more experienced than a player with just two minor-league seasons. He took the mound in a pivotal game against the Royals and outdueled Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo while the offense took care of the rest. Matthews threw five innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits, striking out five, and, not surprisingly, walking no one. Of his 77 pitches, he threw 38 fastballs (averaging 95 mph), 16 sliders, 15 cutters, four curveballs, and four change-ups. He threw 49 strikes with a whiff rate of 18% and a chase rate of 26%. His one mistake of the night came on a cutter, which MJ Melendez sent over the wall in right-center. 
Zebby Matthews pitched well. The Twins could not have asked for more from an inexperienced rookie who started the year in high-A. He took the mound during a playoff race against an inner-division rival, and he overshadowed one of this season’s best pitchers. This should give the Twins some optimism - his performance will likely earn him an extended look in the big leagues during the rest of the season. Zebby is a big part of the Twins’ future, but a solid stretch to end the season could earn him a spot on a potential playoff roster, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. 




 

Throughout the 2024 season, the Twins have received contributions from several young players, the most unlikely of whom has been Zebby Matthews. The Twins selected the 24-year-old righthander out of Western Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. During his first full season in the minor leagues, Zebby threw 105.1 innings, striking out 112, walking 15, and finishing the season with a 3.84 ERA. The Twins’ front office then tweaked his mechanics, as they have done to other tall, righthanded mid-round draft picks like Baily Ober, Louie Varland, David Festa, and Joe Ryan. 
Zebby Matthews started the 2024 season with the Twins’ high-A affiliate. He pitched in just four games for the Kernels, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA while striking out 28 batters without walking anyone across 22.2 innings. The Twins quickly moved Zebby to AA, where he continued to dominate. Through 55.1 innings, he had a 1.95 ERA with a 63:6 K: BB ratio. Then, after his promotion to AAA, he struggled for the first time in his professional career.  He had a 5.68 ERA (over 19 innings), but he struck out 23 batters while walking only one. Zebby’s stats across all levels of the 2024 season are unbelievable:  He’s thrown 97 innings, striking out 114 batters and walking only 7. Seven!  His incredible command of the strike zone, mixed with improved velocity and spin rates, led to a 2.60 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP. 
Despite the rough patches at AAA, injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddock forced the Twins to call Zebby to the big leagues. He answered that call, as he looked much more experienced than a player with just two minor-league seasons. He took the mound in a pivotal game against the Royals and outdueled Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo while the offense took care of the rest. Matthews threw five innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits, striking out five, and, not surprisingly, walking no one. Of his 77 pitches, he threw 38 fastballs (averaging 95 mph), 16 sliders, 15 cutters, four curveballs, and four change-ups. He threw 49 strikes with a whiff rate of 18% and a chase rate of 26%. His one mistake of the night came on a cutter, which MJ Melendez sent over the wall in right-center. 
Zebby Matthews pitched well. The Twins could not have asked for more from an inexperienced rookie who started the year in high-A. He took the mound during a playoff race against an inner-division rival, and he overshadowed one of this season’s best pitchers. This should give the Twins some optimism - his performance will likely earn him an extended look in the big leagues during the rest of the season. Zebby is a big part of the Twins’ future, but a solid stretch to end the season could earn him a spot on a potential playoff roster, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. 




 

In past articles, I previewed many of the top trade deadline targets. However, it is frustratingly obvious that ownership won’t allow much (if any) additional salary. As the TV situation remains an issue, it doesn’t look like much will change next year either. This leaves cheap rentals as the only option for the Twins at the deadline, and even that is far from guaranteed. That said, I will list my top 3 targets (that are left) that the Twins could realistically pursue. Then, I will outline some pieces on selling teams that could be interesting, low-risk, and low-cost. 
 
Jack Flaherty I previewed the case to trade for Flaherty two and a half weeks ago, and he’s only gotten better. The 28-year-old righty is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. Through 18 starts, Flaherty has a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 106.2 innings pitched. His advanced metrics match these numbers, as his whiff rate (33.2%) is in the 94th percentile, and his breaking run value (8) is in the 95th percentile. His xwOBA (.272) and chase rate (31.2%) are by far the best marks of his career. Flaherty is only owed around $4.7 million for the rest of the season, and then he’s set to reach free agency. Unfortunately, the Twins will likely have to unload payroll or overpay with prospect capital to get Flaherty, but he remains the best obtainable starter for the Twins on the market.
 
Andrew Chafin Tanner Scott is the best leftie reliever available at the deadline, but the Twins likely won’t offer a good enough package to compete with teams like the Orioles, Dodgers, and Yankees. Andrew Chafin is a solid backup option, though. Chafin is enjoying a good season, playing for his fifth team across ten MLB seasons. He’s 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA across 37 innings pitched. He has 50 strikeouts in those 37 innings, but he’s also walked 16 batters. Chafin doesn’t have the velocity he used to, but he still has elite underlying metrics. He’s in the 93rd percentile for xERA (2.76), 96th percentile for chase rate (35.4%), and 95th percentile for whiff rate (34.4%). He has the highest strikeout rate of his career (30.9%) and the lowest xwOBA of his career (.264). Chafin is owed a little under $1.6 million for the rest of 2024, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins spending that much on a reliever. They don’t have a reliable leftie in their bullpen, and they don’t necessarily need one, but it’s a hole on their roster that they should fill if they genuinely have championship aspirations. 
 
Luis Garcia In his second stint as an Angel, Luis Garcia is quietly enjoying a nice bounceback season. The 37-year-old reliever is 5-1 with a 3.71 ERA across 43.2 innings pitched. Garcia throws hard, averaging 96.3 mph on his fastball, and this season, he has the highest chase rate of his career (31.2%). His 22% strikeout rate is about league average, but he generates ground balls at a 51% clip (86th percentile). Garcia’s stuff has diminished at this stage in his career, but he’s still very effective at generating weak contact. He’s only owed around $1.4 million for the rest of 2024, making him a good option to compete with Jorge Alcala, Brock Stewart, and Cole Sands in middle relief/set-up man duties. 
 
Other Angels:
After sitting out the entirety of the 2023 MLB season, Hunter Strickland is back, and he’s been surprisingly effective. Across 49 innings, his ERA is 3.12, with his xERA being even slightly lower (2.98). Strickland has regained success this year through his ability to induce weak contact, with his 5.8% barrel percentage (80th percentile) and his .216 xBA (81st percentile). Strickland is owed just over $800k for the remainder of this season, and he would be a cheap depth piece if the Twins feel they need one.  
Although Manuel Margot has played 23 more games, Kevin Pillar has outproduced him in almost every way. Despite having 36 fewer plate appearances, Pillar has the same amount of hits, more home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and doubles than Margot. 
Margot was brought in to play defense and hit lefties. His defense has been bad, as his -4 outs above average ranks in the 11th percentile, while his 80 mph average arm strength ranks in the 23rd percentile. Pillar hasn’t played the defense he’s known for, but his -1 outs above average is better (30th percentile), while his arm is still strong (87 mph average arm strength). Margot has been decent against lefties, with a slash line of .290/.348/.420 and an OPS+ of 115. On the other hand, Pillar has killed left-handers. He has a slash line of .375/.416/.625 with an OPS+ of 188. As a bonus, Pillar offers speed off the bench with his average sprint speed of 28.6 mph (84th percentile). Margot is 7% better than the league average with his 27.6 mph average sprint speed. Pillar signed a one-year $1 million contract going into 2024, making him a cheaper, better option than Margot down the stretch. The Twins could dump Margot’s salary and attach a prospect to entice the Angels ahead of this year’s deadline. 
 
Washington Nationals:
Old friend Dylan Floro is having his best year since the 2021 season. He has a 2.06 ERA through 52.1 innings with the struggling Nationals. Floro gets ground balls 47.7% of the time (72nd percentile) and has an unreal barrel percentage of just 2% (99th percentile). His fastball and breaking ball grade well, with run values of 7 (83rd percentile) and 3 (70th percentile), respectively. He’s not very exciting and doesn’t fill a big hole on the Twins, but he’s adequate bullpen depth, which is always needed during playoff pushes. 
 
Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds have a pair of veteran lefties on cheap expiring contracts: Brent Suter and Justin Wilson. Suter has a 3.68 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 51.1 innings pitched. He’s been used mainly as a reliever, but he’s also started three games. Tyler Rogers is the only pitcher in MLB with a lower average fastball speed, yet Suter has still gotten the job done. His 86.4 average exit velocity is in the 92nd percentile, while his 31.1% hard-hit rate is in the 94th percentile. His fastball is deceiving, as his 7.3-foot extension is tied for ninth in baseball. He also doesn’t walk anyone, with his 4.7% walk rate falling in the 93rd percentile. Suter is owed around $900k for the rest of the season, with a team option at $3.5 million that the Twins would almost surely decline. 
Justin Wilson’s stats don’t look good at first. He has a 4.50 ERA and has given up 31 hits across 28 innings this season. However, many of his advanced stats are elite, albeit in a small sample. Wilson is holding batters to an xBA of .192 while averaging 86 mph exit velocity. His chase rate is 34.1%, yet he only walks 5% of batters faced while striking out 26.1%. It’s hard to analyze Wilson due to his low amount of batters faced, but he’s only owed around $500k for the remainder of the season, and if he performs well, his upside is a playoff-caliber leftie, which the Twins do not have. 
Although not lefties, the Twins could look toward Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims if they want more bullpen depth. Neither have been too impressive, but they’ve been staples in the Reds bullpen this season. Sims broke out last year, owning a 3.10 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched. This year, he’s enjoyed a similar production. He has a 3.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 24.1 innings pitched. Sims gets a lot of weak contact, as his average exit velocity is 86.5 (92nd percentile), and his hard-hit rate is 34.1% (80th percentile). He consistently generates swings-and-misses, as his chase rate (30.3%) and whiff rate (27.7%) are in the 69th percentile. He’s owed just under $1 million for the rest of the season, but the front office may feel like there are better places to allocate that money. 
The Twins are very familiar with Buck Farmer, as they saw him in Detroit for seven seasons. Now in his third year with the Reds, he’s having arguably his best season to date. He has a 2.68 ERA with just four homers allowed across 47 innings pitched. However, many signs point to regression. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 40:19, while his FIP is 4.09. His xERA is 4.18, and he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff. His fastball has a run value of five (75th percentile), while his breaking ball has a run value of four (84th percentile), but walks have ultimately derailed his production. He’s only owed around $750k for the rest of the 2024 season, but he may not be worth the prospect and salary in the Twins Bullpen. 
 
Per Aaron Gleeman, only two teams have yet to make a trade at this year’s deadline: the Oakland A’s and the Minnesota Twins. Despite self-imposed financial constraints from ownership, the front office must find ways to bring reinforcements, even if they’re marginal improvements. Although the return of Justin Topa and a potential switch to the bullpen from Louie Varland and Chris Paddack may help, they shouldn’t be relied on. Minor league starters such as David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shown immense promise, but no one knows what to expect from them if given a more extended look in the rotation. Jack Flaherty seems like a pipe dream, but players like Andrew Chafin, Luis Garcia, Kevin Pillar, and others offer upgrades and depth in critical areas. These are cost-effective players, which is non-negotiable at this deadline. Ultimately, the Twins’ potential to improve their roster will depend on finding extreme value in this seller’s market, which seems increasingly unlikely as the hours pass. 
 

In 2023, the Twins starting rotation was the strength of the team. So far in 2024, that has not been the case. Last year, Twins starters combined for a 3.87 ERA (6th in MLB), 1560 strikeouts (led MLB), and 1451.1 innings pitched (3rd in MLB). This year, the team’s ERA has ballooned to 4.14 (19th in MLB), while their starters have pitched 822.1 innings so far (6th in baseball). Their starters still lead MLB in strikeouts with 842, which could be a sign of good things to come. 
Joe Ryan has looked amazing so far, but he’s struggled after good starts in the past. Pablo Lopez is worse in almost every way compared to last season, but some advanced metrics point to future positive regression. Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson have been very good, but the Twins may not feel confident about sending them out to start a playoff game. The lineup and bullpen have carried the Twins despite some inconsistent starters, but once October comes around, the Twins will need another front-line starter to pitch in the playoffs.
Rangers Starters:
In my last article, I previewed the Rangers’ all-start reliever, Kirby Yates. Since then, the Rangers have improved to a 44-49 record, sitting seven games back of the AL West and 7.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. The Rangers are a poor stretch away from their playoff hopes becoming increasingly unlikely, which is very possible with their next six games coming against the Astros and Orioles. If they become sellers, they may have the two most sought-after starters on the market: Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer. 
Nathan Eovaldi is synonymous with playoff success. In 17 career playoff appearances, he’s 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. Eovaldi has a 3.10 ERA this season with 85 strikeouts across 87 innings. The hard-throwing righty generates swings-and-misses 32.5% of the time (85th percentile) while inducing ground balls 48.9% of the time (77th percentile). BaseballSavant’s run value, which is an accumulation of a pitch’s effect on an offense’s chance to score a run, qualifies two of Eovaldi’s pitches as some of the best in baseball. 
In 2024, Eovaldi’s fastball has a run value of 10 (95th percentile), and his offspeed has a run value of 4 (94th percentile). Eovaldi’s breaking ball run value is -2 (24th percentile), which leaves some room for adjustments. The Twins have played around with pitch splits in the past after acquiring new pitchers, potentially giving Eovaldi more upside than he already has. He is making $16 million this year and has a vesting option at $20 million next year if he throws 69 more innings this season. His potential extra year of team control would make it difficult for a team to pry him away from the Rangers, but the Twins have the ammo to do so if they’re willing to take on his contract. 
Max Scherzer is likely the best true rental among starters available at the deadline. Although he is owed $43.3 million in the last year of his three-year deal, the Mets are paying $20.83 million of that salary. Scherzer missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a back injury, but since returning, he’s been solid in 23.1 innings pitched. Scherzer owns a 3.09 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just three walks. 
Although he doesn’t have the velocity he had earlier in his career, Scherzer still gets opposing hitters to chase 31.3% of the time while holding them to an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. Despite this small sample size, Scherzer has an xERA of 2.74 and an xBA of .218. Scherzer has 171 strikeouts in 143 career playoff innings. Most contending teams should call the Rangers regarding Scherzer, but the Twins must do their due diligence on the 39-year-old starter (despite his no-trade clause), as they are in need of another playoff-caliber starting pitcher.  
Jack Flaherty:
After starting out hot, the Detroit Tigers have fallen back down to earth. They sit at 45-49 and will most likely be sellers at the trade deadline. Their recent regression has nothing to do with their new starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has enjoyed a career resurgence after signing a one-year $14 million deal this offseason. Through 95 innings, Flarhety has a 3.13 ERA with 119 strikeouts and 16 walks. Although his ERA is still great, Flarhety’s underlying metrics are even better. His xERA is 2.91 (89th percentile), while his xBA is .220 (79th percentile). His whiff rate (33.3%) and K% (32.1%) sit in the 94th percentile, while his BB% (4.3%) sits in the 95th percentile among major league pitchers. He has some of the best breaking pitches in baseball, as they’ve racked up a run value of 8 (96th percentile). With Flaherty heading for free agency after this year, one must think that the Tigers have no reason to keep him. The Twins should do everything in their power to go after Flaherty, especially if they strike out on the starters mentioned above. 
The Twins’ playoff success in 2023 was highlighted by strong starting pitching. Although others have stepped up this year, the Twins don’t have a starter that’s replaced Sonny Gray’s production. Starters like Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Jack Flaherty offer a veteran presence and prior playoff success that the Twins rotation lacks. The expanded playoffs ensure a seller’s market, and the scarcity of frontline starters available at this year’s deadline will make it difficult for the Twins to swing a deal. Ownership had the opportunity to replace Gray in free agency, but instead, they opted to cut $30 million of payroll. This is their opportunity to regain the trust of the fanbase by going all-in on a talented roster filled with upside.  



 

Since posting my first trade-target article, the Twins have remained hot. Although they trail Cleveland by six games,  Minnensota’s 48-37 record further cements them as buyers at the trade deadline. Other teams, however, are struggling as the trade deadline approaches. Three potential trade candidates from these teams could be on the move: the Texas Rangers’ Kirby Yates, the Washington Nationals’ Robert Garcia, and the Miami Marlins’ Tanner Scott. Each player is enticing for different reasons, and they could all strengthen contenders’ bullpens down the stretch. 
 
Kirby Yates
The reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers are struggling, with a 39-46 record. They already find themselves seven games back in the AL West and are in contention for the last Wild Card spot. If their struggles continue, they may be one of baseball’s most shocking sellers. The Rangers have a surplus of talent, including right-handed reliever Kirby Yates. Yates is on his sixth team in ten years as he finishes his one-year $4.5 million deal with Texas. Although Yates averages only 93.1mph on his fastball, his underlying metrics are incredible. He’s in the 96th percentile for whiff rate (34.5%) and strikeout rate (34.2%), and he’s third in MLB in ERA (0.95) among pitchers with at least 100 batters faced. A 0.95 ERA isn’t sustainable, but few signs point to regression. Yates leads baseball in xERA (1.93), and he’s in the 99th percentile for xBA (.164), barrel percentage (1.7%), and xSLG (.214). As a 37-year-old reliever on an expiring contract, it’s unlikely that Yates shouldn’t fetch a massive package at the deadline if the Rangers decide to sell. 
 
Robert Garcia
Garcia has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season. At first glance, his 4.44 ERA doesn’t stand out. His xERA, however, is 2.57 (96th percentile), a whopping 1.87 difference from his actual ERA. This difference is explained by his .375 BABIP, which is 11th out of 389 pitchers with 100+ batters faced. Garcia is already 28 years old but hasn’t yet accumulated an entire season of service time. He makes only $743k this season and is under team control until 2030. I can’t imagine that the Twins will assemble the type of package needed to snag Garcia, and ownership must decide between paying or trading prospects. Garcia meets a need for the Twins, as he has enormous swing-and-miss stuff (33.3% strikeout rate) from the left side. He could help offset Caleb Thielbar’s regression and replace him as the dominant leftie out of the Twins bullpen down the stretch.  
 
Tanner Scott
The Miami Marlins are just one game ahead of the NL-worst Colorado Rockies, with a 30-55 record. Few things have gone their way during the 2024 season, but Tanner Scott has been a bright spot. Miami has already begun selling (former-Twin Luis Arraez), and there’s no sign that they’ll stop there. Scott, like Garcia, is another dominant leftie. He has the lowest average exit velocity in baseball (83.4 mph), and he averages nearly 97 mph with his fastball. Along with his elite ability to induce weak contact, Scott is more than capable of getting swings and misses, with his 31.7% whiff rate (90th percentile). He also generates ground balls at a 51.7% clip (87th percentile). Scott is finishing his one-year $5.7 million deal with the Marlins, meaning the Twins won’t have to give up as much prospect capital as they would for other relievers who are under team control for more than one year. The Twins can afford to take on the rest of his deal, making this a possible fit. 
 
The trade deadline often brings unforeseen moves that shape the future of both buyers and sellers. For the Texas Rangers, Kirby Yates’s performance could yield some MLB-ready prospects to retool for next year. Despite his age and expiring contract, Yates’ absurd underlying metrics could land him in the back end of a contender’s bullpen. For the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, the performances of Robert Garcia and Tanner Scott could land them some much-needed talent for their farm systems. Garcia’s unlucky BABIP and xERA could lead to some positive regression, while Scott’s ability to induce weak ground balls makes him a prime candidate to be a set-up man for a winning team. As the deadline inches closer, these players could be on the move, potentially changing the outlook of Major League Baseball’s postseason race.