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Throughout the 2024 season, the Twins have received contributions from several young players, the most unlikely of whom has been Zebby Matthews. The Twins selected the 24-year-old righthander out of Western Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. During his first full season in the minor leagues, Zebby threw 105.1 innings, striking out 112, walking 15, and finishing the season with a 3.84 ERA. The Twins’ front office then tweaked his mechanics, as they have done to other tall, righthanded mid-round draft picks like Baily Ober, Louie Varland, David Festa, and Joe Ryan. Zebby Matthews started the 2024 season with the Twins’ high-A affiliate. He pitched in just four games for the Kernels, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA while striking out 28 batters without walking anyone across 22.2 innings. The Twins quickly moved Zebby to AA, where he continued to dominate. Through 55.1 innings, he had a 1.95 ERA with a 63:6 K: BB ratio. Then, after his promotion to AAA, he struggled for the first time in his professional career. He had a 5.68 ERA (over 19 innings), but he struck out 23 batters while walking only one. Zebby’s stats across all levels of the 2024 season are unbelievable: He’s thrown 97 innings, striking out 114 batters and walking only 7. Seven! His incredible command of the strike zone, mixed with improved velocity and spin rates, led to a 2.60 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP. Despite the rough patches at AAA, injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddock forced the Twins to call Zebby to the big leagues. He answered that call, as he looked much more experienced than a player with just two minor-league seasons. He took the mound in a pivotal game against the Royals and outdueled Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo while the offense took care of the rest. Matthews threw five innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits, striking out five, and, not surprisingly, walking no one. Of his 77 pitches, he threw 38 fastballs (averaging 95 mph), 16 sliders, 15 cutters, four curveballs, and four change-ups. He threw 49 strikes with a whiff rate of 18% and a chase rate of 26%. His one mistake of the night came on a cutter, which MJ Melendez sent over the wall in right-center. Zebby Matthews pitched well. The Twins could not have asked for more from an inexperienced rookie who started the year in high-A. He took the mound during a playoff race against an inner-division rival, and he overshadowed one of this season’s best pitchers. This should give the Twins some optimism - his performance will likely earn him an extended look in the big leagues during the rest of the season. Zebby is a big part of the Twins’ future, but a solid stretch to end the season could earn him a spot on a potential playoff roster, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen.

In past articles, I previewed many of the top trade deadline targets. However, it is frustratingly obvious that ownership won’t allow much (if any) additional salary. As the TV situation remains an issue, it doesn’t look like much will change next year either. This leaves cheap rentals as the only option for the Twins at the deadline, and even that is far from guaranteed. That said, I will list my top 3 targets (that are left) that the Twins could realistically pursue. Then, I will outline some pieces on selling teams that could be interesting, low-risk, and low-cost. Jack Flaherty I previewed the case to trade for Flaherty two and a half weeks ago, and he’s only gotten better. The 28-year-old righty is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. Through 18 starts, Flaherty has a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 106.2 innings pitched. His advanced metrics match these numbers, as his whiff rate (33.2%) is in the 94th percentile, and his breaking run value (8) is in the 95th percentile. His xwOBA (.272) and chase rate (31.2%) are by far the best marks of his career. Flaherty is only owed around $4.7 million for the rest of the season, and then he’s set to reach free agency. Unfortunately, the Twins will likely have to unload payroll or overpay with prospect capital to get Flaherty, but he remains the best obtainable starter for the Twins on the market. Andrew Chafin Tanner Scott is the best leftie reliever available at the deadline, but the Twins likely won’t offer a good enough package to compete with teams like the Orioles, Dodgers, and Yankees. Andrew Chafin is a solid backup option, though. Chafin is enjoying a good season, playing for his fifth team across ten MLB seasons. He’s 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA across 37 innings pitched. He has 50 strikeouts in those 37 innings, but he’s also walked 16 batters. Chafin doesn’t have the velocity he used to, but he still has elite underlying metrics. He’s in the 93rd percentile for xERA (2.76), 96th percentile for chase rate (35.4%), and 95th percentile for whiff rate (34.4%). He has the highest strikeout rate of his career (30.9%) and the lowest xwOBA of his career (.264). Chafin is owed a little under $1.6 million for the rest of 2024, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins spending that much on a reliever. They don’t have a reliable leftie in their bullpen, and they don’t necessarily need one, but it’s a hole on their roster that they should fill if they genuinely have championship aspirations. Luis Garcia In his second stint as an Angel, Luis Garcia is quietly enjoying a nice bounceback season. The 37-year-old reliever is 5-1 with a 3.71 ERA across 43.2 innings pitched. Garcia throws hard, averaging 96.3 mph on his fastball, and this season, he has the highest chase rate of his career (31.2%). His 22% strikeout rate is about league average, but he generates ground balls at a 51% clip (86th percentile). Garcia’s stuff has diminished at this stage in his career, but he’s still very effective at generating weak contact. He’s only owed around $1.4 million for the rest of 2024, making him a good option to compete with Jorge Alcala, Brock Stewart, and Cole Sands in middle relief/set-up man duties. Other Angels: After sitting out the entirety of the 2023 MLB season, Hunter Strickland is back, and he’s been surprisingly effective. Across 49 innings, his ERA is 3.12, with his xERA being even slightly lower (2.98). Strickland has regained success this year through his ability to induce weak contact, with his 5.8% barrel percentage (80th percentile) and his .216 xBA (81st percentile). Strickland is owed just over $800k for the remainder of this season, and he would be a cheap depth piece if the Twins feel they need one. Although Manuel Margot has played 23 more games, Kevin Pillar has outproduced him in almost every way. Despite having 36 fewer plate appearances, Pillar has the same amount of hits, more home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and doubles than Margot. Margot was brought in to play defense and hit lefties. His defense has been bad, as his -4 outs above average ranks in the 11th percentile, while his 80 mph average arm strength ranks in the 23rd percentile. Pillar hasn’t played the defense he’s known for, but his -1 outs above average is better (30th percentile), while his arm is still strong (87 mph average arm strength). Margot has been decent against lefties, with a slash line of .290/.348/.420 and an OPS+ of 115. On the other hand, Pillar has killed left-handers. He has a slash line of .375/.416/.625 with an OPS+ of 188. As a bonus, Pillar offers speed off the bench with his average sprint speed of 28.6 mph (84th percentile). Margot is 7% better than the league average with his 27.6 mph average sprint speed. Pillar signed a one-year $1 million contract going into 2024, making him a cheaper, better option than Margot down the stretch. The Twins could dump Margot’s salary and attach a prospect to entice the Angels ahead of this year’s deadline. Washington Nationals: Old friend Dylan Floro is having his best year since the 2021 season. He has a 2.06 ERA through 52.1 innings with the struggling Nationals. Floro gets ground balls 47.7% of the time (72nd percentile) and has an unreal barrel percentage of just 2% (99th percentile). His fastball and breaking ball grade well, with run values of 7 (83rd percentile) and 3 (70th percentile), respectively. He’s not very exciting and doesn’t fill a big hole on the Twins, but he’s adequate bullpen depth, which is always needed during playoff pushes. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have a pair of veteran lefties on cheap expiring contracts: Brent Suter and Justin Wilson. Suter has a 3.68 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 51.1 innings pitched. He’s been used mainly as a reliever, but he’s also started three games. Tyler Rogers is the only pitcher in MLB with a lower average fastball speed, yet Suter has still gotten the job done. His 86.4 average exit velocity is in the 92nd percentile, while his 31.1% hard-hit rate is in the 94th percentile. His fastball is deceiving, as his 7.3-foot extension is tied for ninth in baseball. He also doesn’t walk anyone, with his 4.7% walk rate falling in the 93rd percentile. Suter is owed around $900k for the rest of the season, with a team option at $3.5 million that the Twins would almost surely decline. Justin Wilson’s stats don’t look good at first. He has a 4.50 ERA and has given up 31 hits across 28 innings this season. However, many of his advanced stats are elite, albeit in a small sample. Wilson is holding batters to an xBA of .192 while averaging 86 mph exit velocity. His chase rate is 34.1%, yet he only walks 5% of batters faced while striking out 26.1%. It’s hard to analyze Wilson due to his low amount of batters faced, but he’s only owed around $500k for the remainder of the season, and if he performs well, his upside is a playoff-caliber leftie, which the Twins do not have. Although not lefties, the Twins could look toward Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims if they want more bullpen depth. Neither have been too impressive, but they’ve been staples in the Reds bullpen this season. Sims broke out last year, owning a 3.10 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched. This year, he’s enjoyed a similar production. He has a 3.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 24.1 innings pitched. Sims gets a lot of weak contact, as his average exit velocity is 86.5 (92nd percentile), and his hard-hit rate is 34.1% (80th percentile). He consistently generates swings-and-misses, as his chase rate (30.3%) and whiff rate (27.7%) are in the 69th percentile. He’s owed just under $1 million for the rest of the season, but the front office may feel like there are better places to allocate that money. The Twins are very familiar with Buck Farmer, as they saw him in Detroit for seven seasons. Now in his third year with the Reds, he’s having arguably his best season to date. He has a 2.68 ERA with just four homers allowed across 47 innings pitched. However, many signs point to regression. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 40:19, while his FIP is 4.09. His xERA is 4.18, and he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff. His fastball has a run value of five (75th percentile), while his breaking ball has a run value of four (84th percentile), but walks have ultimately derailed his production. He’s only owed around $750k for the rest of the 2024 season, but he may not be worth the prospect and salary in the Twins Bullpen. Per Aaron Gleeman, only two teams have yet to make a trade at this year’s deadline: the Oakland A’s and the Minnesota Twins. Despite self-imposed financial constraints from ownership, the front office must find ways to bring reinforcements, even if they’re marginal improvements. Although the return of Justin Topa and a potential switch to the bullpen from Louie Varland and Chris Paddack may help, they shouldn’t be relied on. Minor league starters such as David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shown immense promise, but no one knows what to expect from them if given a more extended look in the rotation. Jack Flaherty seems like a pipe dream, but players like Andrew Chafin, Luis Garcia, Kevin Pillar, and others offer upgrades and depth in critical areas. These are cost-effective players, which is non-negotiable at this deadline. Ultimately, the Twins’ potential to improve their roster will depend on finding extreme value in this seller’s market, which seems increasingly unlikely as the hours pass.

Just one month ago, the thought of adding a bat to the Twins’ lineup didn’t make much sense. But after some of their best players were injured, the team’s lineup needs reinforcements. On paper, the middle infield and third base positions have depth. Willi Castro’s flexibility and Rocco Baldelli’s willingness to shuffle players in and out of the DH spot create an opening almost anywhere on the diamond. The lineup lacks upside when key players miss time, and bolstering the lineup allows for some room for error when injuries eventually happen. Here are a few options: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerro Jr. is quietly enjoying his best season since he finished runner-up in MVP voting during the 2021 season. The 25-year-old owns a .833 OPS and has clubbed 16 home runs for the disappointing Blue Jays. He’s owed around $6.6 million for the rest of 2024 and is arbitration-eligible for the 2025 season, making a deal for him highly unlikely. Vladdy sits in the 98th percentile for both average exit velocity (94.1 mph) and hard-hit percentage (55.9%), and he’s in the 95th percentile for xSLG (.538). What makes him different than other power hitters is his contact skills. He’s in the 97th percentile for xBA (.302) and the 82nd percentile for K% (16.2%). Vladdy’s downside is his fielding, as he ranks in the 1st percentile with -9 outs above average. A move to the Twins could minimize these faults, as he could serve as a true DH while occasionally sparing Carlos Santana at first base. Guerrero Jr. is a generational talent with a rare combination of power and contact, and he could truly transform the Twins’ lineup into one of the best in the MLB. Pete Alonso: If Guerrero Jr. isn’t available at the deadline, the Twins may pivot to a player that fills a similar role in Alonso. Since coming into the league in 2019, Alonso has been one of the best power hitters in baseball. Although he’s having a down year, he still has an OPS+ of 119 with 19 home runs. Alonso is a different hitter this year, seemingly trading some power for fewer swings and misses. Alonso has a career-low whiff rate (21.7%) and chase rate (26.7%). When he does swing, he’s still in the 91st percentile for bat speed (75.2 mph) and the 78th percentile for barrel rate (11.6). Like Vladdy, Alonso is also terrible in the field, ranking in the 4th percentile with -6 outs above average. He also wouldn’t have to play the field much, assuming the DH role most days and playing first base sporadically. The Mets sit in a three-way tie for the last Wild Card spot with no chance of winning the NL East, making a rental trade for Alonso possible. The Twins have reduced their team strikeout rate by 4.7% from last year, ranking 9th in baseball (20.9%). A trade to the Twins would give Alonso flexibility to add more power at the expense of strikeouts, and a good stretch from him would prove invaluable. Brent Rooker: How about a reunion with one of the best power hitters in baseball? Rooker broke out in 2023, taking advantage of what was likely his last opportunity to produce in MLB. Somehow, in 2024, Rooker is better in almost every metric. He’s 6th in baseball with a 170 OPS+, and he’s tied for 9th in baseball with 22 home runs. His BaseballSavant page is incredible, as he ranks in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.590) with a launch angle sweet-spot percentage (42.1%). He ranks in the 97th percentile for xwOBA (.393) and barrel percentage (17.8). He also ranks in the 94th percentile for hard hit percentage (51%) and the 90th percentile for average exit velocity (92.2 mph). Swings and misses have always been a massive part of Rooker’s game, but he’s largely reduced them this year. Excluding his 2020 season, where he only played 7 games, Rooker owns career-highs in batting average (.294) and BB% (10.6%). The A’s only owe Rooker $750k this year, and he won’t be a free agent until 2028, but the A’s likely won’t be competitive anytime soon. They may look to sell high and cash out on Rooker’s career-best season, and the Twins need another right-handed outfield/DH bat amidst all their injuries. Joc Pederson: Before recent injuries, the Twins’ righthanded bats were crushing the ball, leading MLB in right-handed OPS with .781. Although their lineup has been decimated, their left-handed hitters haven’t missed much time. Nonetheless, they rank just 17th in MLB with .707 OPS from lefties. Eduoard Julien, who came into the season as the team’s lead-off hitter, just got recalled from AAA. Trevor Larnach has quietly enjoyed a nice season with a 110 OPS+, while Matt Wallner has been tearing the cover off the ball with a 125 OPS+ (albeit in a small sample). Outside of a fantastic two-week stretch, Max Kepler has just been bad. His .700 OPS is the worst mark in his career. Kepler has also seen career worsts in wOBA (.306) and BB% (6.1%). He isn’t striking out much – and his .255 batting average is actually .018 points better than his career average-- but he isn’t hitting the ball hard or drawing walks like he’s done in the past. His defense remains top-notch, but his poor offense gives the Twins reason to explore left-handed options at the deadline. Pederson has been a bright spot on an otherwise disappointing Arizona Diamondbacks team. His 146 OPS+ and .274 batting average both tie career highs, while his launch angle sweet-spot percentage of 34.5% is his best mark to date. Pederson has a slash line of .281/.379/.502 with 12 of his 13 home runs against right-handers. The Twins MLB-leading right-handed bats give them the flexibility to ensure Pederson rarely plays against lefties, bringing his production to an even stronger level. Pederson has played both corner outfield positions and first base in the past, although he hasn’t played in the field in 2024. The Twins have the luxury of platooning Pederson at DH, as he’d be their best left-handed hitter to face a righty. Also, Pederson is an experienced playoff performer, with a .814 OPS and 12 home runs in 79 post-season games. Pederson is finishing a one-year $12.5 million deal with a mutual option in 2025, making him a borderline elite lineup reinforcement at a low price. This move makes sense for the Twins, as they could fill a need for one of their only offensive weaknesses. Although a starter and reliever are higher on the Twins’ order of needs as the deadline approaches, they still need offensive reinforcements following some untimely injuries. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Brent Rooker, and Joc Pederson represent higher-end options. All of these options represent consistent home run power, and they all offer above-average contact skills. Addressing lineup weaknesses with one of these players and prioritizing a playoff-caliber starter will increase the Twins’ playoff chances and strengthen their chances of making a significant post-season run.

In 2023, the Twins starting rotation was the strength of the team. So far in 2024, that has not been the case. Last year, Twins starters combined for a 3.87 ERA (6th in MLB), 1560 strikeouts (led MLB), and 1451.1 innings pitched (3rd in MLB). This year, the team’s ERA has ballooned to 4.14 (19th in MLB), while their starters have pitched 822.1 innings so far (6th in baseball). Their starters still lead MLB in strikeouts with 842, which could be a sign of good things to come. Joe Ryan has looked amazing so far, but he’s struggled after good starts in the past. Pablo Lopez is worse in almost every way compared to last season, but some advanced metrics point to future positive regression. Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson have been very good, but the Twins may not feel confident about sending them out to start a playoff game. The lineup and bullpen have carried the Twins despite some inconsistent starters, but once October comes around, the Twins will need another front-line starter to pitch in the playoffs. Rangers Starters: In my last article, I previewed the Rangers’ all-start reliever, Kirby Yates. Since then, the Rangers have improved to a 44-49 record, sitting seven games back of the AL West and 7.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. The Rangers are a poor stretch away from their playoff hopes becoming increasingly unlikely, which is very possible with their next six games coming against the Astros and Orioles. If they become sellers, they may have the two most sought-after starters on the market: Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer. Nathan Eovaldi is synonymous with playoff success. In 17 career playoff appearances, he’s 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. Eovaldi has a 3.10 ERA this season with 85 strikeouts across 87 innings. The hard-throwing righty generates swings-and-misses 32.5% of the time (85th percentile) while inducing ground balls 48.9% of the time (77th percentile). BaseballSavant’s run value, which is an accumulation of a pitch’s effect on an offense’s chance to score a run, qualifies two of Eovaldi’s pitches as some of the best in baseball. In 2024, Eovaldi’s fastball has a run value of 10 (95th percentile), and his offspeed has a run value of 4 (94th percentile). Eovaldi’s breaking ball run value is -2 (24th percentile), which leaves some room for adjustments. The Twins have played around with pitch splits in the past after acquiring new pitchers, potentially giving Eovaldi more upside than he already has. He is making $16 million this year and has a vesting option at $20 million next year if he throws 69 more innings this season. His potential extra year of team control would make it difficult for a team to pry him away from the Rangers, but the Twins have the ammo to do so if they’re willing to take on his contract. Max Scherzer is likely the best true rental among starters available at the deadline. Although he is owed $43.3 million in the last year of his three-year deal, the Mets are paying $20.83 million of that salary. Scherzer missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a back injury, but since returning, he’s been solid in 23.1 innings pitched. Scherzer owns a 3.09 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just three walks. Although he doesn’t have the velocity he had earlier in his career, Scherzer still gets opposing hitters to chase 31.3% of the time while holding them to an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. Despite this small sample size, Scherzer has an xERA of 2.74 and an xBA of .218. Scherzer has 171 strikeouts in 143 career playoff innings. Most contending teams should call the Rangers regarding Scherzer, but the Twins must do their due diligence on the 39-year-old starter (despite his no-trade clause), as they are in need of another playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Jack Flaherty: After starting out hot, the Detroit Tigers have fallen back down to earth. They sit at 45-49 and will most likely be sellers at the trade deadline. Their recent regression has nothing to do with their new starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has enjoyed a career resurgence after signing a one-year $14 million deal this offseason. Through 95 innings, Flarhety has a 3.13 ERA with 119 strikeouts and 16 walks. Although his ERA is still great, Flarhety’s underlying metrics are even better. His xERA is 2.91 (89th percentile), while his xBA is .220 (79th percentile). His whiff rate (33.3%) and K% (32.1%) sit in the 94th percentile, while his BB% (4.3%) sits in the 95th percentile among major league pitchers. He has some of the best breaking pitches in baseball, as they’ve racked up a run value of 8 (96th percentile). With Flaherty heading for free agency after this year, one must think that the Tigers have no reason to keep him. The Twins should do everything in their power to go after Flaherty, especially if they strike out on the starters mentioned above. The Twins’ playoff success in 2023 was highlighted by strong starting pitching. Although others have stepped up this year, the Twins don’t have a starter that’s replaced Sonny Gray’s production. Starters like Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Jack Flaherty offer a veteran presence and prior playoff success that the Twins rotation lacks. The expanded playoffs ensure a seller’s market, and the scarcity of frontline starters available at this year’s deadline will make it difficult for the Twins to swing a deal. Ownership had the opportunity to replace Gray in free agency, but instead, they opted to cut $30 million of payroll. This is their opportunity to regain the trust of the fanbase by going all-in on a talented roster filled with upside.

Since posting my first trade-target article, the Twins have remained hot. Although they trail Cleveland by six games, Minnensota’s 48-37 record further cements them as buyers at the trade deadline. Other teams, however, are struggling as the trade deadline approaches. Three potential trade candidates from these teams could be on the move: the Texas Rangers’ Kirby Yates, the Washington Nationals’ Robert Garcia, and the Miami Marlins’ Tanner Scott. Each player is enticing for different reasons, and they could all strengthen contenders’ bullpens down the stretch. Kirby Yates The reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers are struggling, with a 39-46 record. They already find themselves seven games back in the AL West and are in contention for the last Wild Card spot. If their struggles continue, they may be one of baseball’s most shocking sellers. The Rangers have a surplus of talent, including right-handed reliever Kirby Yates. Yates is on his sixth team in ten years as he finishes his one-year $4.5 million deal with Texas. Although Yates averages only 93.1mph on his fastball, his underlying metrics are incredible. He’s in the 96th percentile for whiff rate (34.5%) and strikeout rate (34.2%), and he’s third in MLB in ERA (0.95) among pitchers with at least 100 batters faced. A 0.95 ERA isn’t sustainable, but few signs point to regression. Yates leads baseball in xERA (1.93), and he’s in the 99th percentile for xBA (.164), barrel percentage (1.7%), and xSLG (.214). As a 37-year-old reliever on an expiring contract, it’s unlikely that Yates shouldn’t fetch a massive package at the deadline if the Rangers decide to sell. Robert Garcia Garcia has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season. At first glance, his 4.44 ERA doesn’t stand out. His xERA, however, is 2.57 (96th percentile), a whopping 1.87 difference from his actual ERA. This difference is explained by his .375 BABIP, which is 11th out of 389 pitchers with 100+ batters faced. Garcia is already 28 years old but hasn’t yet accumulated an entire season of service time. He makes only $743k this season and is under team control until 2030. I can’t imagine that the Twins will assemble the type of package needed to snag Garcia, and ownership must decide between paying or trading prospects. Garcia meets a need for the Twins, as he has enormous swing-and-miss stuff (33.3% strikeout rate) from the left side. He could help offset Caleb Thielbar’s regression and replace him as the dominant leftie out of the Twins bullpen down the stretch. Tanner Scott The Miami Marlins are just one game ahead of the NL-worst Colorado Rockies, with a 30-55 record. Few things have gone their way during the 2024 season, but Tanner Scott has been a bright spot. Miami has already begun selling (former-Twin Luis Arraez), and there’s no sign that they’ll stop there. Scott, like Garcia, is another dominant leftie. He has the lowest average exit velocity in baseball (83.4 mph), and he averages nearly 97 mph with his fastball. Along with his elite ability to induce weak contact, Scott is more than capable of getting swings and misses, with his 31.7% whiff rate (90th percentile). He also generates ground balls at a 51.7% clip (87th percentile). Scott is finishing his one-year $5.7 million deal with the Marlins, meaning the Twins won’t have to give up as much prospect capital as they would for other relievers who are under team control for more than one year. The Twins can afford to take on the rest of his deal, making this a possible fit. The trade deadline often brings unforeseen moves that shape the future of both buyers and sellers. For the Texas Rangers, Kirby Yates’s performance could yield some MLB-ready prospects to retool for next year. Despite his age and expiring contract, Yates’ absurd underlying metrics could land him in the back end of a contender’s bullpen. For the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, the performances of Robert Garcia and Tanner Scott could land them some much-needed talent for their farm systems. Garcia’s unlucky BABIP and xERA could lead to some positive regression, while Scott’s ability to induce weak ground balls makes him a prime candidate to be a set-up man for a winning team. As the deadline inches closer, these players could be on the move, potentially changing the outlook of Major League Baseball’s postseason race.

At the time of this writing, the Minnesota Twins are 45-36. This places them seven games behind the MLB-best Cleveland Guardians and a game ahead of a surprisingly competitive Royals team. The AL Central is almost unrecognizable from a year ago, as the Twins were leading the division with a 40-41 record at this time last year. The Twins have seen players like Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Griffin Jax, and Carlos Correa step up, while others like Eduoard Julien, Matt Wallner, Christian Vazquez, and Louis Varland have regressed. The front office and ownership have to feel some pressure from the fans for the decrease in payroll over the offseason, and the trade deadline is a great way to buy back some level of fan trust. In this article, and some future articles, I will explore some realistic trade targets that could help the Twins gear up to catch Cleveland or make a run as a Wild Card Team: Oakland A’s Relievers: After surpassing early expectations, the Oakland Athletics have returned to a more modest position. In their final season in Oakland, the team sits at 29-54, placing them at the bottom of a disappointing AL West division. The team has several areas that need strengthening, but their bullpen stands out as a strong suit. Hard-throwing Mason Miller will likely be a top arm to watch at the deadline, but the Twins may not meet the A’s standard for a trade package. Therefore, let’s focus on a few other arms that could potentially bolster the Twins' bullpen: Austin Adams is enjoying a decent season at age 33. Although his era is 4.88, fans can expect some positive regression, as his BABIP is .388. Although he has a solid strikeout rate of 27.5%, Adams’ achilles heel is his walk rate of 13.5%, which places him in the 6th percentile of all pitchers(minimum 100 batters faced). Batters don’t typically hit the ball hard when they put it in play, as his average exit velocity is just 83.9mph(99th percentile), and his weak contact % is 11.4%(99th percentile). Adams also features an elite whiff rate of 33.9%(95th percentile). All of these numbers can be explained by his pitch mix as he throws his slider a whopping 76.4% of the time, which is the third-highest rate in baseball. This pitch features an average spin rate of 2975 rpm, making it one of the best sliders in baseball. Adams is playing on an $800k deal and is arbitration-eligible next year. The Twins have gone after pitchers with great sliders in the past and increased its usage, making Adams a very intriguing target for the bullpen. Lucas Erceg is another A’s reliever who, at first glance, doesn’t have great numbers. However, taking a deeper dive reveals some very lucrative underlying metrics. Erceg is a hard-throwing right-hander, with his fastball averaging 99mph. He also features a slider, changeup, and sinker, throwing them an even 23.3% of the time. He ranks in the 99th percentile with an 84.2 mph average exit velocity and the 95th percentile with a 29.6% hard-hit rate. Erceg has incredible swing-and-miss stuff, which explains his 33.3% whiff rate(94th percentile) and 28.6% strikeout rate(87th percentile). Erceg may have a high price tag since he is in his second season, making $750k, and he’s under team control until 2030. Erceg’s stuff implies more upside than his 3.49 era, making him a great option to pair with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax at the end of the bullpen. Reed Garrett: Only time will tell if the New York Mets will sell at the deadline. They currently sit at 39-39, just 1.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot. Reed Garrett is a good reliever for the Twins to target if they decide to sell. Like Lucas Erceg, Garrett is under control until 2030 and only makes $740k this season. Garrett has played on four teams in parts of four MLB seasons, but he’s been enjoying his most successful season in the bigs. He’s a hard-throwing righty with a deep pitch arsenal, as he features a split-finger (24.6%), cutter(24.2%), sweeper(22.8%), four-seamer (18.4%), and a sinker(10%). He’s in the 99th and 98th percentile for whiff rate(38.5%) and strikeout rate(35.6%), respectively, and he consistently gets batters to chase(33.8% of the time). When batters put the ball in play, they rarely reach, as Garrett features an expected batting average of just .182(97th percentile). The Mets would likely need a large trade package to pry Garrett away, as they’re a competitive team, and he doesn’t hit free agency until 2030, but this may be the missing piece that the Twins need in their bullpen, and they have the ammo to pull it off.

Potentially a big blow to the catching depth. I was hopeful that we'd see Camargo start to eat into Vazquez's playing time a bit.

I always loved Smeltzer. Super easy guy to root for.